sirjohn curtice, professor. _ months away. sirjohn curtice, professor, thank _ months away.ch. we will be back withjohn and our guests in a few minutes. don�*t go away. back for more soon. weather forecast now. hello again. it�*s the bank holiday weekend, of course, and i think mixed is probably the right word to describe the weather over the course of the weekend, because, while there�*ll be some warm, sunny spells for many of us, there�*ll also be some sunshine and showers as well. and this morning, certainly, it�*s been quite wet across parts of northern england, into northern ireland. we�*ll continue with that rain, i think, in northern ireland into this afternoon. the risk of some showers, though, in the far north—west of scotland with some sunny spells, and with the sunshine in the south, you mayjust see some showers popping off across the far south—east of england. those could be heavy and thundery, but warm, sunny spells across many southern areas, temperatures 17, 18 degrees celsius. we may once again have the warmest weather in the west of scotland. 19 or 20 degree

thank you so much, sirjohn curtice. we will be back - sirjohn curtice.rtunes. yesterday, scotland and northern ireland had lots of sunshine and warm weather, with temperatures peaking at 23 degrees celsius. not so much today, though. it's a lot cloudier, a lot cooler. and for some, that means a drop of about nine degrees celsius between yesterday's warm sun and today's rather grey and cloudy skies. the clouds extensive then for scotland and northern ireland and is also still affecting parts of northern england and north wales. best of the sunshine further southwards today where yesterday it was cloudy and wet, feels a lot warmer in today's sunshine across these more southern regions. an odd shower for south east england, some wet weather continuing to affect northern ireland. with outbreaks of rain on and off. there will be a bit of warmth across the very far north of highland scotland, where we could see temperatures into the low 20s, but otherwise it's going to be really quite a cool afternoon. now, overnight tonight, we're looking at cloud and rain co

sirjohn curtice, thank ou for of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank you for the _ of contest. it for his third term. ., ., , . , he has held onto it for his third term. . ., . , , ., term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the _ term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the bright _ term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the bright spot - term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the bright spot for i term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the bright spot for you. | term. fantastic news, brilliant. i this is the bright spot for you. at this point, i should probably introduce our new guest, the political editor of the sun newspaper. asjohn said, they are not easily interpretable as how a party will perform in a general election. what is the mood in the party? it election. what is the mood in the .a ? , ., election. what is the mood in the -a ? , . , , election. what is the mood in the .a ? , ., , , ., party? it is at the upper end of the worst case — party? it is at the upper end of the worst case scenario _ party? it is at the upper end of the worst case scenario prediction

sirjohn curtice is professor of politics at the university of strathclyde.ection results together with the parliamentary by—election in blackpool. the first is that so far as the gap between conservative and labour is concerned, nothing very much seems to have changed. in one sense the as it a surprising statement because the swing from conservative to labour in blackpool south at 26% is the third biggest swing in post—war electoral history. the trouble is swings of the kind of size have now become more commonplace in the last year or so and we have had five by—elections in which the swing from the conservatives to labour has been over 20% so in that sense it's more of the same, it is at of parliamentary by—elections of the kind that we have really not seen since the 92—97 parliament which endedin since the 92—97 parliament which ended in defeat for the conservatives. equally, if we look at the detailed voting figures that the bbc has been collecting overnight, many have more to come but so far it looks as though if anything support for the conservatives in

coming up — we'll get reaction and analysis from the bbc�*s resident polling expert, professor sirjohn curticer other main headline — another key day of evidence at the post office inquiry, as the former boss paula vennells denies trying to close down a review of the faulty horizon it system. this was important, but i was reassured _ this was important, but i was reassured of— this was important, but i was reassured of the _ this was important, but i was reassured of the same - this was important, but i was reassured of the same time l this was important, but i was. reassured of the same time that these _ reassured of the same time that these bugs _ reassured of the same time that these bugs have _ reassured of the same time that these bugs have been— reassured of the same time that these bugs have been dealt- reassured of the same time thatl these bugs have been dealt with. welcome to downing street where 2a hours ago, rishi sunak called a general election to take place on ajuly. today, party leaders have hit the campaign trail, delivering their message to voters across the uk — as the countd

let me go to professor sirjohn curtice. your view of what's happening in london now?at enfield result was crucial. the swing _ london now? that enfield result was crucial. the swing slightly _ london now? that enfield result was crucial. the swing slightly below- crucial. the swing slightly below the other london constituencies but not by much. in the wake of that, the bbc is also willing to call this election and to say that sadiq khan will indeed be elected as the next mayor of london. our best estimate of the moment, and of course there is a bit of uncertainty about this but we think that esther khan is going to end up with about 45% of the vote and susan hall with around 32%. -- mr the vote and susan hall with around 32%. —— mr khan. i think labour would regard that as roughly correct, are pretty comfortable victory and something that as it were were added to the joy they will have had with the results they've been getting over the last 48 hours or so. . ., . been getting over the last 48 hours or so. i ., . ., ~ i. or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much- _

let's get some analysis with professor sirjohn curtice, political analyst and professor of politics atity. he has been there all night, and all day. professor, thank you. how does that work? how is it that labour have claimed victory already? could you walk us through that? we have claimed victory already? could you walk us through that?— you walk us through that? we have had the results _ you walk us through that? we have had the results for _ you walk us through that? we have had the results for all _ you walk us through that? we have had the results for all but - you walk us through that? we have had the results for all but one - you walk us through that? we have had the results for all but one of. had the results for all but one of the district already published, and we know from that that in order to win this contest, that in sandwell, which is the one that hasn't been declared, labour basically need to defeat the conservatives byjust over 11,000 votes. in sandwell three years ago when this was last fought over, labourwere years ago when this was last fought over, labour were arou

coming up — we'll get reaction and analysis from the bbc�*s resident polling expert, professor sirjohn curticenells denies trying to close down a review of the faulty horizon it system. this was important, but i was reassured _ this was important, but i was reassured of— this was important, but i was reassured of the _ this was important, but i was reassured of the same - this was important, but i was reassured of the same time l this was important, but i was. reassured of the same time that these _ reassured of the same time that these bugs _ reassured of the same time that these bugs have _ reassured of the same time that these bugs have been— reassured of the same time that these bugs have been dealt- reassured of the same time thatl these bugs have been dealt with. welcome to downing street where 24 hours ago, rishi sunak called a general election to take place on 4july.

we'll talk tonight to professor sirjohn curtice — elections guru, to kelly beaver — the head of ipsosl hear from conservative, labour, snp and lib dem politicians, as well as former director of communications to david cameron sir craig oliver, and sir keir starmer�*s biographer, tom baldwin. but first, nick was first to pick up on rumours swirling last night. nick, why now? you were right. at this very table last night as you say, i reported on what i described as massive rumours that rishi sunak would make that election announcement today and the election could be onjuly 4th. then we had complete silence from number 10. in a way, that is understandable because when you announce an election, there are protocols you have to follow, you have to seek permission for a dissolution of parliament from the manic and you have to proceed with some care. and you want to have an element of surprise. —— from the monarch. then we had a lengthy speech by the prime minister completely soaked in the rain, reminiscent of the former french president francois holland of the day he was inaugurated soaked

sirjohn curtice, what are the significance of these results? - the polling, that the lead is not likely to change, and it looks i the polling, that the lead is not i likely to change, and it looks like the conservatives _ likely to change, and it looks like the conservatives and _ likely to change, and it looks like the conservatives and the - likely to change, and it looks like the conservatives and the labourj the conservatives and the labour party— the conservatives and the labour party are — the conservatives and the labour party are doing _ the conservatives and the labour party are doing slightly _ the conservatives and the labour party are doing slightly less - the conservatives and the labour party are doing slightly less well| party are doing slightly less well than they— party are doing slightly less well than they did _ party are doing slightly less well than they did last _ party are doing slightly less well than they did last time, - than they did last time, not least essentially— than they did last time, not least essentially becau

in it is, it is actually 1500 votes in it between the two candidates, that really is close as sirjohn curticet it really was a significant victory. i'mjoined races. but it really was a significant victory. i'm joined now by our midlands political editor, and we have heard the speech is there now, rob, a new mayorfor the west midlands. now we are looking towards a general election, and there will be momentum that the labour party hope to carry through. they will hope to carry through and ithink— they will hope to carry through and i think we _ they will hope to carry through and i think we should be super cautious about— i think we should be super cautious about deciding we can read anything into this _ about deciding we can read anything into this result into what might happen— into this result into what might happen in— into this result into what might happen in a general election. it is pretty— happen in a general election. it is pretty clear that personality is a really _ pretty clear that personality is a really big — pretty clear that personality is a really big part in mayoral elections

professor sirjohn curtice, confirmation that sadiq khan has achieved a third term as mayor of london. mayor of london. . , , ., ., , london. it has been a relatively comfortable _ london. it has been a relatively comfortable victory _ london. it has been a relatively comfortable victory with - london. it has been a relatively comfortable victory with a - london. it has been a relatively i comfortable victory with a majority of around ten percentage points. as nick eardley has pointed out, it seems as though in the capital at least the muslim community seems not to have reacted, at least as far as we can tell, does not seem to have reacted against the labour party as they appear to have done in other parts of england. so maybe sadiq khan is a fellow member of the community was perhaps more insulated than some of the other labour candidates elsewhere. the second thing, the dog didn't willy bach, the ulez from a little bit of evidence that may be the conservative vote didn't go down quite so much in those places. —— make the dog that didn't really bark. but certainly, the story that emer

polling guru professor sirjohn curtice. our own political editor nick watt. emma barr, former conservative special advisor. and stephen bush from the financial times, who is an expert on labour. now four of the five biggest vote swings in by—elections from conservatives to labour have happened in the last year under sir keir starmer — including blackpool south yesterday. however not one further conservative mp has publicly called for rishi sunak to go, despite his party being, according to the experts, in deep electoral trouble. it was a very good night for labour, but there's an acknowledgement that some voters have deserted the party over its stance on gaza. all that and more to come. first, nick, pollsters say these results are bad for the conservatives. where does it leave rishi sunak? figs conservatives. where does it leave rishi sunak?— rishi sunak? as john said, it is a difficult night _ rishi sunak? as john said, it is a difficult night for _ rishi sunak? as john said, it is a difficult night for the _ rishi sunak? as john said, it is al difficult nigh

sirjohn curtice is polling.expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde, and he'll be in the political hot seat to shine a good afternoon. welcome. if you've just tuned in, this is gb news on tv, online and on digital radio. i'm nana akua, andifs digital radio. i'm nana akua, and it's now time for this week's political spotlight. and joining me to shine a light is sir john curtice. he's a polling sirjohn curtice. he's a polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. so thank you very much, professor. thank you very much, professor. thank you very much , john, for joining much, professor. thank you very much , john, forjoining us. so much, john, forjoining us. so this is a very exciting moment actually in polling . sorry. my actually in polling. sorry. my computer's full. crikey. what's happened here? sorry my computer started but this is very exciting moment in politics. now you famously said 99% chance labour of winning. is that still i >> -- >> oh -_ >> oh hang

labour party, a senior cabinet minister and the personification of political analysis, professor sirjohn curticel also talk to the person most likely to be the new first minister of scotland, john swinney, now that kate forbes has thrown her weight behind him. and with the looming prospect of deportation flights to rwanda, a warning you will hear strong and discriminatory language as a protestor is racially abused attempting to stop asylum seekers being moved out of hotels by government contactors. shouting. good evening. it's a bonanza! almost 2,600 council seats in england, 37 police and crime commissioners in england and wales, one london mayor and assembly members, ten other mayors and metro mayors — and one byelection in blackpool south. so when voters are exercised by local issues which don't always translate into a general election vote, when some contests are about personalities not politics, how much can this clutch — which misses out scotland, northern ireland and is very patchy in wales — be a bellweather for the general election? what should we looking for and what should we discount

. _ let's speak to sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde.stimate of what would have i an estimate of what would have happened — an estimate of what would have happened if— an estimate of what would have happened if the _ an estimate of what would have happened if the whole - an estimate of what would have happened if the whole of- an estimate of what would have happened if the whole of the i an estimate of what would have i happened if the whole of the country had had _ happened if the whole of the country had had iocai— happened if the whole of the country had had local council— happened if the whole of the country had had local council elections- had had local council elections yesterday _ had had local council elections yesterday rather _ had had local council elections yesterday rather than - had had local council elections yesterday rather than just i had had local council elections yesterday rather than just 107| yesterday rather than just 107 counciis — yesterday rather than just 107 councils in— yesterday rather than just 107 council

every week, the nation's favourite pollster and professor sirjohn curtice is going to keep us right onwrong and have their worst election ever. he will try first to squeeze reform, who, with 11% support, have won over one in five 2019 tory voters. however, the first polls of the campaign suggest that support for reform and labour's lead are unchanged, and mr sunak simply cannot afford to be stuck in neutral. so the big question — can labour keep that lead? and whether it is real when it gets to the ballot box. their number—one task has always been to persuade you they can be trusted with your money. the woman with that job is rachel reeves. it's a huge responsibility so there are huge questions for you. what would your priority be first and foremost?— would your priority be first and foremost? , ., ., ., ., , foremost? first of all we are really leased to foremost? first of all we are really pleased to fight — foremost? first of all we are really pleased to fight the _ foremost? first of all we are really pleased to fight the election - foremost? first of all we are really pleased to f

curtice, that will take one heck of an extraordinary campaign . thank you very much campaign. thank you very much for joining us. sirjohn for joining us. r john curtice, forjoining us. sirjohn curtice, polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. always a delight now let's go to stormont now. speak to gb news. northern ireland reporter dougie beattie dougie, always a delight to have you on the show. we were just talking there about that snap election in 2017 and of course the dup became absolutely pivotal. that confidence and supply to the conservative party cost them £1 billion, but it kept them in power. dougie what's the political landscape now? on, on on your side of the sea there in northern ireland? >> well, it's totally fascinating , >> well, it's totally fascinating, martin. i mean, we have 18 seats in northern ireland. eight of those are held by the dup, seven by sinn fein, but they are an abstentionist party. they don't take those seats, then we have two by the sdlp and one by the alliance party. but out of those 18 seats, six of them are very, very slim majorities, including, gavin robinson, the

to help us decode that, let's bring in professor sirjohn curtice.elections is often early and we have to remember that it does have its own particular catchment. this is a very eurosceptic part of the country. it is also somewhere where ukip did well in local elections in the past. we have now seen reform out to poll the conservatives in each of the wards results we have got in from sunderland so far. as you have seen in the summary the conservative vote is well down on 2021 and even down on this time last year. at least in this early result the conservatives do have reason to be concerned about what will happen in eurosceptic reports of the country where reform stands. sunderland is one of the places where reform are fighting all of the wards. early signs and it will be a difficult night for the conservatives. we will keep tracking to what extent do they particularly suffer where reform are standing. labour are making progress, but modest progress, but after all sunderland is already very strongly labour. we should not expect too much in the way of

you see, if sirjohn curtice is correct, when he pretty much pretty much always is.etty much i think he's 99.9% chance of winning the next general election . and if keir does election. and if keir does become prime minister, unfortunately for him, in anticipation of this prospect before he's even in office, his projected income for this plan is unravelling before his very eyes as parents decide not to go private. in fact, it's already beginning to bite. enrolments to these schools have already fallen by 2.7% and are set to fallen by 2.7% and are set to fall further in september. the independent schools council, who have been collecting data on new starters for over a decade, reported this as the biggest annual drop since it began collecting its data in 2011. now, the body represents almost 1400 private schools, and experts say that the policy could result in as many of them closing down. julie robinson, the chief exec of the isc, said you can see the change in our census already and new parents for this year are asking about that. you hear them speaking ahead as the

just gently remind professor sirjohn curtice, i do rememberat the remind professor sirjohn curtice, iying — more than any other party. so i'm not saying we're going to do that same _ not saying we're going to do that same of— not saying we're going to do that same of momentum today, there are fewer— same of momentum today, there are fewer seats— same of momentum today, there are fewer seats and in different places and whatever else, but i'm suggesting tojohn that and whatever else, but i'm suggesting to john that we might and whatever else, but i'm suggesting tojohn that we might be in a rather— suggesting tojohn that we might be in a rather better position than that which— in a rather better position than that which i think he is suggesting. we can— that which i think he is suggesting. we can confirm some of the things you were telling us with your credible data on your phone. the lib dems have held hull and also hart in hampshire. the lib dems have indeed become the largest party at that council in hampshire. trying to strike a more optimistic note than john curtice who were suggest

i joining us now is professor sirjohn curtice, from the university of strathclyde — he's been analysinglmost were overtaken by reform uk on a ballot paper. it’s overtaken by reform uk on a ballot --aer. �* , ., overtaken by reform uk on a ballot .aer, �* , ., , overtaken by reform uk on a ballot n-aer. �*, :, , :, overtaken by reform uk on a ballot ..aer, �*, ., , ., ., paper. it's not 'ust about reform uk, it is paper. it's not 'ust about reform uk. it is in — paper. it's notjust about reform uk, it is in highly _ paper. it's notjust about reform uk, it is in highly muslim - paper. it's notjust about reform i uk, it is in highly muslim populated areas, people voting based on events in the middle east, the rise of the green party, so a comparison to local election results in 2021, at that .15% other parties away from the main three and thatjumped to 23% this week. this the main three and that 'umped to 2396 this weekh 2396 this week. this is another crucial point. _ 2396 this week. this is another crucial point. sir— 2396 this week. this is another crucial point. sir keir- 2396 this wee

let's hear from professor sirjohn curtice from the university of strathclyde. your fellow programmes-— morning by yourself and your fellow programmes. where we are at now, com ared programmes. where we are at now, compared to — programmes. where we are at now, compared to yesterday, _ programmes. where we are at now, compared to yesterday, has - programmes. where we are at now, compared to yesterday, has the - programmes. where we are at now, i compared to yesterday, has the much changed? we had the conservative mayoral victory with ben houchen but in terms of the picture you are predicting in terms of the local elections? t0 predicting in terms of the local elections?— predicting in terms of the local elections? ., , ., , , . elections? to be honest the picture doesnt elections? to be honest the picture doesn't look _ elections? to be honest the picture doesn't look that _ elections? to be honest the picture doesn't look that different - elections? to be honest the picture doesn't look that different this - doesn't look that different this morning from what it

as i said, i want to go back to sirjohn curtice now... i beg your pardon...ll, there has been a lot of grumbling about this today i lot of grumbling about this today and number 10 lot of grumbling about this today and numberio were not lot of grumbling about this today and number 10 were not doing very much _ and number 10 were not doing very much on _ and number 10 were not doing very much on the communications side to try to _ much on the communications side to try to lock— much on the communications side to try to lock it — much on the communications side to try to lock it down which in itself is quite — try to lock it down which in itself is quite telling. i think there has been _ is quite telling. i think there has been a _ is quite telling. i think there has been a big — is quite telling. i think there has been a big debate around, do you go long. _ been a big debate around, do you go long. or— been a big debate around, do you go long. or do _ been a big debate around, do you go long, or do you go early? looking at the economic data the government has h

sirjohn the results? so far? i mean, do you think it's sir john curtice predicted, you know, complete annihilation potentially ofdone better with results like ben houchen, dare i say in tees valley ? okay. dare i say in tees valley? okay. >> i think it's been a pretty good set of results for keir starmer and for the labour party under his leadership. >> i mean, we've seen an extraordinary result again in blackpool. that result a 20% swing to labour, we've seen that now as a pattern. it's the fifth by—election where we've seen swings of that kind. i think we've also got to remember , we've also got to remember, darren, that, you know, these are taking place not in the middle of a parliament. they're not mid—term. this is on the eve of a general election. and i think there is a pattern here. and the pattern, i think fundamentally, is that people are fed up with the government. they think the tories have failed and it's time for a change. and i think whatever way you carve this, however you look at it, and of course you can pick out extreme examples of a result in teesside, for example, which is a good result for t