look ate1 this chart smh.ooks like it's going back to the up trend that's been in place i think that if the s&p and nasdaq go back to those prior fed 9 lows, this thing is going back to the mid to low 90's. i think there's an easy way to plan this. smh today you can look out to may expiration and buy thee may 105-95 spread. buying one of the mayt(105 points, selling the 95 that's the $2.50 breaks even at102 half on the this is looking to target a move back to that uptrend a lot of technicians would tell you this would still be in place if it you had the sock at 95. i think it's kind of tough to pressfá shorts here even when y consider the big contet wents -- i grant it'see obviously veryr w.÷micron i like it in intel.Ñ smh's largest lconstituent. you can represent about 2.5% of the index to make a bearish bet. we're going tot knowñriwithie next 50 or 60 days. >> may i ask a question? c-ae=u-- notice by the way i'm wearing a jacket. >>ej've never seen you where a jacket. >> this is a smart show. >>

so you know, i've just got to say, look at this chart right here, the smh. mean, it really looks like it's going back to that up trend that's been in place i don't think i'm saying that the thing's going to crash by any means, but i think if the s&p and the nasdaq go back to those prior february 9 lows, this thing is going back to the mid-to-low 90s, and i think there's an easy way to play this on a bounce. let's say we get a little bounce monday morning when i was looking at this at 1:06, the smh, today, you can look out to may expiration and buy the put spread, paying $2.95 for that, buying one of the may 1.05 puts and selling one of the may 95 puts at $1.50 that's $2.50 to break even at $102.50 on the down side and you can make down to $7.50 down to $9 between now and may expiration this is looking to target a move just back to that up trend and a lot of technicians would tell you that this up trend would still be in place if you had the stock at $95 two months from now. >> what do you think, mike >> i definitely like the structure, especially given the f

>> well, i mean -- guy, when i started looking at this this afternoon, you know, the smh was trading at 106 the fact it dropped two points by the time i sent the trading idea and now the show tells you there is potential for extreme volatility to he moo i think you have a situation -- mike mentioned one of the biggest components is intel. that is a low vol name low volatility has been suppressed because of some of the larger names if the broad market goes back to those lows this thing is going to be back unchanged on the year that's really all i'm targeting here to me i think option prices seem pretty reasonable. the idea with this trade is you get a pop, we had a horrible close today. you get pop monday, tuesday, you look to put this out about 106ish. >> one of the thing i would quickly point out is that the reason the vix is elevated is because the market is moving around what we aren't seeing is that options are grossly overpriced relative to that movement specially in the indexes and the sector markets like this one. >> as tech and the broader market gets slammed energy emerged a

. >> we're having this conversation at ts the smh hits all time high.is casso and christopher reoland. >> we'll tell you about what dick's said about their plan to limit gun sales. markets off the high as those indexes are off of their individual highs the stocks now down about a third of a percent rick santelli, what are you watching >> i'm watching relationships between tensnd a boons widespread pressure is growing we'll talk about that after the break. many small businesses, from kitchens to factories to contractors, rely on their equipment to serve customers every day. when equipment is broken, it means lost revenue. trusted choice independent insurance agents offer special protection that could help replace or repair damaged equipment and provide lost business income. they represent multiple insurance companies and customize coverage to help businesses get back to work. announcer: to find an agent, visit trustedchoice.com. >>> washington's impact on mna continuing to make wave this is morning. ylan mui has new comments from senator chuck schumer on

welcome back the smh, take a look, new all-time high.che bank you've got seagate, western dig, just a few. >> this is an area where we just have this global leadership position even though there are chip foundries, chip giants in europe and in asia, of course, our companies are doing incredibly well this is the kind of industry we should be focused on for the future, not things that were involved with the 1800s. i'm looking at intel, nvidia, these companies are providing the road map to what technology will look like in 2020 and beyond. >>> how about the follow-through on micron? up another 4% today i remember the stock is ridiculous. >>> 'lwel take a quick break, come back and do final trades, next this is my headquarters. this is where i trade and manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities - trade confirmed - and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what

. >> listening to that made me think omg, smh. >> lol. >> zomg. >> yeah, i would add a letter, but i'mu soon. >> ttyl. >> i thought i was -- she's gone now. my thanks to katie. we have two developing stories on the beat tonight and sam nunberg joins me here live after spending over four hours with bob mueller's grand jury. i will see you soon. first though, my other top guest

the tech names since the bottom, february 9th, amazon up 11, apple up 13, netflix 14, alphabet 12, smh is up 11. micron is up 37% applied materials, 29. intel, 20. >> yeah, but, you know, you talk about intel, and we saw it upgraded today by bank of america in terms of their price target what's interesting about that, though, despite the fact that we've seen really significant performance from these stocks, it's being driven by really significant earnings so despite the fact that you had double digit gains in many cases amongst the chip companies last year, you actually didn't see the multiples expand in intel's case as an example, over the last two years you've seen multiple contractions, given the fact that their earnings are growing so significantly. bottom line, the chip names are substantiated by the fact that earnings are powerful, they're continuing to expand into other areas. >> adobe, auto desk, each up 30% since that february low you talk about, judge so fantastic and demand for those services. in particular like the publishing side of both of these companies, you know, autod

. >> listening to that made me think omg, smh. >> lol. >> zomg. >> yeah, i would add a letter, but i'm not going to. >> well, brb, and we'll see you soon. >> ttyl. >> i thought i was -- she's gone now. my thanks to katie. we have two developing stories on the beat tonight and sam nunberg joins me here live after spending over four hours with bob mueller's grand jury. i will see you soon. first though, my other top guest is stormy daniel's lawyer, daniels is upping the ante with a new challenge. she's offering to pay back the $130,000 famously facilitated by michael cohen. she says she wants the freedom to talk about the alleged relationship with donald trump, which the white house continues to deny. she also wants that privilege, and her lawyer says daniels would pay donald trump, himself. that is interesting, even controversial. because it challenges donald trump's line that maybe his lawyer just went rogue with all this and paid stormy daniels out of his own pocket. now how high are the stakes? new reports that trump's allies may try to ask a judge to stop 6 "60 minutes", from airing

and the smh which has been the market leader, not doing anything airlines, jim mentioned united it's remember something about the airlines they have had a great six-month run. the airline index is near a 20-year high right now looking at the xal, the old one. not being ark fecffected with te whole fiasco with the dog dying in flight. very strange february reports there. very autos, furniture, gasoline all down i look at year over year numbers. some encouraging things. internet remains strong. clothing i haven't seen a 4.9% year over year on clothes in ages. that's got to be everyone iseve nine years restaurants and bars, that's good department stores is flat. it was down for months for ages and ages it's stabilized. that's a minimal at least. a little bit of good news. and we heard the story about dick's and barnes & noble and books have been down retailers mixed today. jcpenney, kohl's opened on the up side. barnes & noble, gap -- gap up a little bit right now but barnes & noble had a tough time recently the trend for the market remains up this week a quadruple witching very specifi

if it takes out 219.70 you will see another wave of the smh.er wave of buying because it does make machinery you need for pretty much everything. >> we have been on this one for quite some time. >> what do we have on the show >> we have talking about stock that is red hot, controversial. we're doing it on the birthday and yours. >> our executive producer is a young man. >> happy birthday. >> soon. you have a great weekend. you will be with us in san francisco with people you will not believe. >> they have never done it. >> i won't really like it. >> you will be jealous. >> take me with you. >> if you come with me i will see my daughter tomorrow, too. have a great trip. >> coming up we will have the white house tariff plan in focus. treasury secretary steven mnuchin joining us. keep it here. >>> welcome to squawk on the street. rick santelli live on the cme floor. wholesale trade sales, the sales side january final down 1.1. this follows up 0.8 and certainly not going to help our gdp when that gets filtered through. on the inventory side it's a

worst day since 2012 the rest of the fang names also seeing red right now semi stocks taking a hit the smh and soxx are both on pace for their worst day in a month. the volatility index is spiking. crossing 20 for the first time since back on march 7th, michelle >> thank you i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. and here's what else is happening at this hour twitter planning to ban cryptocurrency ads from its platform following similar moves by facebook and google the ban expected to be announced soon newal brands says it will appoint carl icahn's four nominees to its board. icahn will back the rest of their board at the meeting >> and according to reports, volkswagen will spend $340 million to build a new su vurx at a tennessee plant the announcement is expected to come this week melissa, over to you >> let's get back to the markets. a down day on wall street joined by tech. mike and bob join us from the floor of the exchange. mike, you were talking about the nervous neutral state of the markets, looks like the markets got tweaked here >> a little more nervous, less neutral than 8:00 a.m., althoug

chips the same thing, smh, the etf that tracks the semiconductor etf is up double the performance ofdate to me i think there's a lot of crowding in there. again, you heard a lot of people talk about facebook today down 7% they're saying it's a cheap stock on the out year numbers. intel trades 14 1/2 times. qualcomm trading 17 1/2 times relative to growth and relative to balance sheets they're attractively valued. to me, you know, i think it's probably one there the same. it has to do with crowding valuation. >> imbedded in your question was notion that somehow the market went lower this move was predicated on facebook i would submit to you, dan might agree with this, he may not, but if you look last week you had four days where the s&p had a big move to the upside followed by a selloff we haven't seen moves like that in quite some time where the market gave up gains maybe the market, maybe not down 350 dow points but maybe would have been down today regardless. let me say this about chips -- >> you know -- >> go ahead. >> say it real quick real quick >> real quick, micron, to me, on

appreciate it fred kempe >>> now to our etf spotlight, where dom chu issi looking at cp stocks >> melissa, smh ticker symbol for that semiconductor etf. if you haven't noticed, yes, it's currently working on an eight-day winning streak just like the nasdaq composite overall. that bullish action in the chip stocks has been a big story in the leadership coming from the technology second to be overall. the semiconductor fund hit another record high today. despite the fact one of its biggest holdings, qualcomm, is down on the day, broadcom is now of course deceased in terms of its deal to buy qualcomm it's made for an intense story, but it hasn't helped other chip stocks in terms of holding them back of the 25 members of the etf, all but two have posted returns so far, positive ones, this year to date. qualcomm and cadence are the only two that have not the two of the biggest drivers of that 17% year to date gain for the fund are nvidia and micron they're the third and fourth biggest weightings in the fund as of yesterday. they have a a 5% to 6% rating. the only two stocks bigger influences are in

fell apart on the momentum trades smh, this is what you want to watch. and it slowly just about 10:20 moved south as momentum traders sold a little bit of weakness. that still trying to get in to positive territory my thesis is tech is very stretched. s&p up 2% on the month and all of these other ones all up dramatically let me note what does it mean to be overbought? if you are over 70 on a relative strength, that is overbought and we have stuff that are in 80 and 90 and that means that you will definitely have trouble advancing. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much for more insight, let's bring in partner of villery company and also from u.s. bank private wealth management. gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us >> do you need some water? >> looking at the market action, we took off the tillerson thing. he didn't seem to have that much effect on policy right? >> that's right. you know, i think i would certainly be surprised if anybody's investment thesis on putting money in the market had anything do with who the secretary of state was not a

it isn't spreading when you look at the etf, for example, of chip stocks, the smh, the semiconductorolders index. it's not transferring when you look at biotech either and when you look at the volume compared to when we saw the swoon back in february, february 9th, the week leading up to that, you're getting twice as big volume on those selloffs we are not seeing that here. in part because it appears people are sort of taking this with a little bit of a grain of salt the fact that we are getting these tariffs. they won't necessarily be the same after the 30-day period for comments and as the white house hears from more of sectors and more companies about how this could really impact their business if there were to be retaliatory tariffs coming from china. i will note, though, that the chinese adr, the stocks listed here in the u.s. are getting hit very hard. they are likely to be among those that suffer right along with our tech firms here if we start seeing some retaliatory tit for tat. >> you mentioned the chinese names. we saw earlier as well, some hard-hit names including baidu,

that's something thatsh shep smh has pointed out at fox news, bret baier does a great job, chris wallaceht up. but there is no doubt, mika that there are some challenges in prime time right now as it pertains to going up to the line and sometimes stepping over the line. roger ailes with glenn beck knew when it was time to pull glen el bakraoui and also knew when it was time to send glen backpacking. and that's one of the questions i'm sure fox is grappling with. >>> coming up, president trump was no fan of jeff sessions' decision to recuse himself from the russia probe. now the attorney general made another move that may set off his boss. that's ahead on "morning joe." >>> and we want to mention our compelling interview with pulitzer prize winning author lawrence wright. he produced a new drama "the looming tower" based on his best-selling book. it's a ten-part mini series available on hulu and ties directly with the larger conversation about the state of u.s. intelligence and the u.s. intelligence community. you can find our full interview with lawrence wright right now on joe.msnbc.com

did see a two-day move, very bad in terms of the overall chip sector one other place to watch, the smhis is the semiconductor tracking exchange traded fund. that stock up a quarter of a percent. as we talk about technology and whether the driving force behind it was just facebook, semiconductor is going to be one of the key battle grounds to watch today to see whether or not there is some sense of stability brought back to that particular industry. back over to you guys. >> dom, thank you very much. >>> in the meantime, british political consulting firm cambridge analytica is back on news after they were caught on camera they are the same company that facebook suspended over the weekend accusing it of harvesting facebook's user data without permission michelle caruso-cabrera joins us >> we should point out that they're a company that credits itself with helping donald trump win the presidential election. channel 4 of the united kingdom unveiled several pieces of video which showed the ceo of cambridge analytica, an leks and der knicks, explain some of their methods. >> we have the deve