that's about 4% of the current price of smh as a way to make a bearish bet.e are in a situation where we certainly could see for the dips i don't think we're going to resume bull market anytime soon personally, but if we do even get a sharp bear market rally, which is certainly a significant possibility in every bear market, and we've already seen it several times in this one, you want to limit your rick. and i think by risking just 4% of the current etf share price that's a way you can do this >> how does smh look to you, carter >> they're going to get worse. let's look at three charts they're all the same time frame. so the first just simply depicts where the smh is in relation to its pre-covid high the s&p would need to drop 6% to get to its pre-covid high. for the smh it's 19% if we want to draw some lines on this the first way to do it would be like that, which is converging trend lines we've broken to the down side out of that formation, and again i think it all projects to the pre-covid highs. and third final way to draw the line it's all the same char

6% t get there and smh 19%. on this the first way to do it would be like that. which is, con sverging trim lins broken to the down side out of that formation and projects to pre-covid high substantial down from here final way to draw the lines, all the same chart, is just to annotate, depict the importance of the reversal. doesn't matter whether you call it head or shoulders it's a massive uptrend in reverse and the question, is that reversal finished i don't think so i think more down side. >> bonawyn, same camp? >> i am. it's a little expensexpensive. i want to focus on the width of the strikes here if you're leaning into this might as we make sure you're getting your buck's worth here, exactly what mike has done if there's more downside it's really going to roll over heavy as carter said, and i think the width of strikes allows you to capture the bulk of that move. >> yeah. mike -- last word here i'm wondering how you manage a trade especially when it looks like, when stocks are swept up we go to the down sid

let's look at three charts the first predicts where the smh is relation to its precovid high it wouldneed to drop 6% to get to free covid high for the amh it's 16% if we want to draw lines, the first way to do it would be like that, which is converging trend lines. we broke into the downside out of that formation, and i think it all projects to the precovid high so substantial down from here. third and final way the draw the lines, it's all the same chart, just to annotate, predict the reversal doesn't matter where you call it a head and shoulders the question is, is the reversal finished i don't think so i think more downside. >> are you staying in the same camp >> i am. it's a lilt expensive. i want to focus on the widths of the strikes. if you're going to lean into this, you might as well make sure you're going to get your bucks here if there's more downside it's really going to roll over heavy as carter said, and i think the width of strikes allows you to capture the bulk of that move. >> mike, last word i'm wondering how you manage a trade, especially when it look like -- when st

you look at the top ten holdings of the smh, take the number one holding taiwan semi, it's 11% of the most important company in the world we're talking about apple's making chips they're not making anything. they're designing chips. taiwan semis, making the chips these stocks will reach a point where a lot of bad news has been priced in. i don't know if that's happened yet. it's to the point you could say it's been derisked i would just say a lot of the risk has come out of these stocks maybe not all but i'm okay with that i have to start early when i build positions because i'm not a trader i'm really more of an investor >> you're looking at amd in what sense? >> i own nvidia. i haven't added to it yet just because i'm look at it technically and i feel this year i don't need to be a hero when i'm adding to a position i'm going to wait to hear. i think with lisa su i want to bet on the jockey there. they're phenomenal, you know, ceos the charts on both still look so bad that i'm just going to wait buzz they continue to make just like the s&p those lower highs and lower lows i'm going

like this $38 billion semiconductor, because it's slight her different than owning the broad swath of smh. >>> stock number two, kristina, thank you very much. that stock is uber their numbers -- don't call them earnings -- they're out tomorrow, more losses are in store for the company, but the pace of those losses should drop considerably deirdre bosea joins us now you set it up so well, brian don't look for gap earnings, but look at the trajectory, house it's getting there that can be tricky, because they like to report on adjusted ebitda it's also messy, because they have these other investments in volatile companies like aurora, grab and a numbers of others we'll see how ebetter is -- and, of course, there's just rider and delivery demand, how is that holding up usually they get some color, and we're looking at guidance for that. >> a couple things there i'm going to put a bit on the spot feel free to say shove it, sul sullivan has any company ever lost more than uber? it's just been years i wonder if there's been a record >> i love the service, but is it possible they don't have a bu

the smh experienced one of its largest inflows since back in april. that kind of tells you where the sentiment is, overwhelmingly negative, and maybe potentially it's priced in and then you fall back upon strategically, how do i think about the the exposure, and it has to be the right exposure, where it's focused on low data and it's defensively oriented >> you mentioned the sentiments as overly negatives, and what we saw from the hyperscalers last week, was that not a reason to be more negative it's a major part of the business for every chip maker. in fact, it's a big headwind for them going forward if cloud growth is going to slow down am i misreading that, jenny? >> i see it as a commodity we over the past few years have turned it into something more interesting and story-driven than it is, and the reality is, chips are a commodity and we need them for everyday life, and it probably will be only cyclical as we go on, and that's kind of it this is not a mysterious place to invest. things get out of whack and then recalibrate, and this gets back to

the etf in this case coming in your direction so smh is one that i start taiwan semi and nvidia make etf >> and i hark en back to your ol name. >> taiwan semi >> that could effect taiwan. if the sector because of -- >> in the last three weeks and the headlines in terms of the that u.s./china chip is returning. but i'll say this, taiwan semi core business doesn't fall under that category. they're in the ai. they're not really -- wise, at sp point you're starting to buy this and this is much of a green light when they caution for next year thalt working through bad event now. this is great numbers and this is why semis outperform. >> guy >> the day before the market turn is not trading well and this is one of the biggest companies in the world $243 billion market cap has not performed well but maybe today was that sort of capitulation and in terms of tsm, to dan's point, nibble into semis. >> i agree i do think we're getting closer to about a -- finally they got priced in. >> coming up, nowhere to go but up the names that are bad they are good the traders have the picks of the stocks a

that was a terrible report and certainly awful guidance from texas instruments, but you've got the smh higher and you have texas instrument itself moving back towards unchanged >> some signs of hope there when it comes to the chip sector. are you at all surprised when you see what we're seeing from alphabet five consecutive quarters of sales growth are you surprised today see the rest of the market basically rally around these megacap tech names? >> i think it's really constructive and a couple points just to add to anastasia and joe i think you've got to watch rates. if you look at the two-year and ten-year they're both down 20 basis points each over the last i think five or six trading days that continues as rates come down, stocks do the opposite and go higher. you also have next week on halloween the buy back window's open and so i think people understand that the buyback window is going to reopen so that could be another -- another actually fundamental dynamic that comes into the market and pushes it higher to me what's so interesting for investors i think that if your portfolio w

. >>> two semiconductor ooefs touching 52 week lows, the smh and soxx off 3%, led lower by lam research after the u.s. announced new export controls on certain advanced computing shipment sold into china. the numbers down 15% year over year bring in bernstein's senior analyst. the china export controls compounding the worry on the cycle slowing down what do you do with these stocks >> yeah. the china export restrictions were not helpful we knew they were coming and we've been waiting for it. there have been incremental piecemeal sanctionses. this codifies them and expands them i would say the incremental from this in terms of what was put forth was not that big the big incremental is memory cap x equipment which is why the semi caps are down today the other super computer anything related to super computers into china is going to be a no go he beyond that, though, i think everything else is mostly okay i don't think it applies to general purpose, pcs or servers or smartphones i think that is safe that being said, it is -- does represent a larger escalation of people wondering if there's

. >>> welcome back been another tough week interest the semis as all of you know smh etf giving mostck today, though, it is micron initiated with a buy $70, the price targ and that is from luke capital. you used to own this, own some other chips. this is a name we talked about an awful lot what do you think here >> even though i'm bearish you say, hey, they're selling on single digit multiples, high single digit multiples right now, and maybe i should buy it but then you think, you know what, i think those multiples aren't accurate and those earnings are coming down we thought -- i didn't think but others thought maybe there's a bottom and then you get the biden china news and you could still see more of that news. if there's a black swan event, if china barricades taiwan, what if they nationalize those facilities so i'm giving you dire things that may not happen but there's no certainty valuations are accurate where they are. so i'm staying away. again, i'd rather see them turn. they're extremely economically sensitive, which is a very positive free money environment, but now not so

mean, some people were saying that maybe semis have been de-risked because we've seen such a fall the smhl in the stocks courtney and yet here we are we take a look at nvidia specifically traded. traded again today on basically the same news. yes, the rules are now could theified they maybe stricter than we thought but still the notion that the export restrictions are going to hit revenue we knew that was coming. >> yeah. that's the hard thing. each on friday when we saw amd go lower, this is on news we already knew, that pc sales were slowing down and demand deterioration is a problem with these chip sectors yes, i think we're starting to see -- maybe starting to get priced in here starting to get tracked evaluations. they are trading lower on news we already now about can we continue to see that? i don't know what that news would be in all honesty so that makes me think yes, that's be a opportunity and would i have said that last week and we keep having these lower. >> amd hung in there pretty well started off the day very badly, and then it seemed, to you know, find some foot, and it s

look at the smh to where it was pre-covid, it was 150.t that if context. >> all right coming up, meta debuts a new vr headset and the stock drops. does zuckerberg have his head stuck in the clouds. and we're celebrating our teammates. here is a board member of ulta beauty. >> latinos are bringing even more new energy to our country they're the fastest growing segment and a feel for growth in nearly every industry you could think of and we're not slowing down so it is important to think about how am i unlocking the power at this important and significant community. being a latina, everything there is about you is an absolute gift it is a competitive advantage the way that i think about it. so never hold back from being who you are and offering the perspective that has shaped you your entire life that is the real competitive advantage. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones nurse mariyam sabo knows a momen

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. >> smh >> nasdaq's positive guys, i haven't had a lot of good things to say about verizon for quite. >> you've been so negative -- you've been hands-down the most negative >> am i wrong? >> it's a joke hands down >> i haven't been negative or positive but this morning, verizon does get an upgrade from oppenheimer. and i mention it because they actually downgraded the stock back in february, which wasn't a bad move >> good call >> saying at the time they overpaid for spectrum, they were late to mid band 5g bills but now they think they're gradually catching up to t-mobile in terms of 5g network performance and capabilities and they're getting to 100 mega hertz and looking to resume positive subscriber growth using a more segmented approach i'll leave it at that, but it is having an impact on the stock price. $50 is now their price target at oppenheimer as they upgraded to outperform >> i thought it was significant. >> would be. >> because they were right about -- when they downgraded it >> exactly >> constellation brands, you have them on tonight and they have what's called depletion

fracks on the upside and semiconductors, the smh, that's the other risk-on sector so you see very splitere 3-2 advancing to declining stocks take a look at the semis here, the semiconductor capital equipment stocks, all down day applied materials did get a downgrade over at wells fargo. the price cut there. hard to figure out how these new curves or potential new curbs on chinese tech stocks or semiconductors would matter at this point, but you see the decline there in some of these semiconductor equipment names. the bond market's not open, but importantly, bond etfs are trading, and sort of a mixed day here there's the 20-year treasury plus bond, that's the tlt, the biggest treasury bond that's out there. that's down, so it means yields are up price indications. corporate bond down slightly and there's the short-term vcsh is a short-term bond here for the -- for vanguard, and that's basically on the flat side so, these are still trading right now. in terms of earnings season, i'm calling it earnings purgatory season it's sort of the same quarter as the last one here. so we're expecting

nvidia is down, but the smh would be down. i think the lead times got long.hey kept making them and then there are no -- there's not a lot of new pcs bought. this is another post-covid situation. and lisa su said that gaming was strong people are not ignoring that absolutely strong in the datacenter people are ignoring that what they're focused on is the same thing that happened to micron if you look at micron, when we buried sanjay, we buried him at 48 and the stocks went to 54 this is a clearing event it is -- i don't call it breath-taking. i say that for stephen king. "fairy tale," really good. >> you've mentioned it >> okay, when he has another one, i'll mention that one >> i know. >> why did you have to say that? >> what do you mean? >> couldn't you -- well, just that implies that i repeat myself >> well, you do. he's the dickens of our time >> i try to be emphatic. anyway, the supply chain issues, no what the real weakness is, supply chain issue, is that they had giant orders, so they're trying to meet the demand of the orders, and they're making them a