you know, you spoke with socgen.rd, because of how strong an expectation beatings it has been, deutsche bank says that especially for the more cyclical sensitive sectors, europe, the yen, we can see the big turnarounds. i talked to one hedge fund manager who said europe, u.k. is so cheap now. you have to go in and buy. annmarie: christian gallagher caught up with us earlier in the program. pe said why is everyone worried about inflation? time to worry about missing out on this bull run. that is it for daybreak europe. coming up next in european market open. earnings season continues ramping up. meant for you including interswruse the cocaine of mersk and heineken. we're seeing risk on this thursday morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome to "bloomberg markets european open." matt: good morning. the markets say bet on the gain train. stocks set to rebound from tuesday's losses. tencent fuels a rise in hong kong. platinum hits a six-month high -- a six-year high.

we heard from socgen today, the latest to report earnings.he stocks gaining today with the ceo saying the year has got off to a positive start. alix: great set up. also now, graham of morgan stanley. that was a good set up for emma. i wonder what part of this earnings momentum is factoring in better vaccinations than we are actually getting. graham: when we look at the earnings data, we after a member this is the fourth quarter. this is effectively what was happening at the back end of last year before the latest phase of lockdowns in europe was kicking in. the data itself is somewhat backward looking. nevertheless, we think it is pretty encouraging. your reporter mentioned guidance looks good. there seems to be a lack of transmission between some of the weaker economic data into corporate earnings, which is quite encouraging. we should remember that european companies are very global in their outlook. the weakness we have in european economies is being largely offset by the strength we are seeing in the u.s. and asia. guy: let's talk a littl

it shows what a challenge socgen has again of -- ahead of it to right the ship.s so much for joining us. dani burger with your stocks to watch. could be an interesting session today. futures are all pointing higher as the reflation trade gets back on track. tencent driving things in asia, now looks like europe is going to pick up. u.s. futures are all higher across the board. the cash equity open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open. a minute to go into the start of cash equity trading. robert kaplan tells bloomberg temporary inflation spikes are to be expected. global stocks rise to another record. still in this expectations rise, but before any package comes, president trump's second impeachment trial takes place. the senate says it is constitutional. freight rates set to peak. the largest container carrier says they expect costs to remain enervated. matt: futures, 10 seconds to go until the market opens. we see green arrows and risk on indicators throughout the morning for europe and the u.s. it should be an interesting

kit juckes of socgen is raising this question.n do real yields start to bite and drive things the other way? tom: i am also going to note, renminbi has not broken up to new strength. i would note that the 10 year yield makes another leap up in the last two hours, 1.38%. jonathan: that is the story we have got to build on this affects market, not just foreign-exchange, and commodities as well. this is a double hit if you start to think about it. not only weigh on some of these trades, but also the commodity side of the trade as well. a huge move and copper, huge move in crude. if there is a weaker dollar call, the real yields start to challenge the consent this view. let's get you some movers. here's romaine. romaine: we will start off with what is going on in the vaccine space. we had that israeli study of that pfizer/biontech covid-19 shot basically showing that the real world efficacy is actually a little bit better than what it was in the last. that is good news for pfizer. keep an eye on some of the other stocks out there beca

move we have had, you know it is a matter of time, one of the relative there's makes a move -- city, socgenof a. tom: they have to move higher. jon: not to say it is wrong. it is a year-end forecast by definition it is not wrong. it is the middle of february, just wondering if someone makes a move. tom: they will recalibrate. jon: the bond market. kevin powell a little later --ahead of that, the tendons unchanged. about a basis point. tom: four digits. jon: let's finish on this -- this is an example of how quickly a bond market can move -- you think about the law -- low levels we are at. 10-year gilt yield has basically doubled year to date, exceptionally low levels, but it has basically doubled year to date and now about 40 basis points on the u.k. 10-year. what does it matter? the vaccine rollout in the u.k. has been quite good -- 18.9% of the population has received one dose. at the time when they started to do this and focus on a one-dose vaccine and then shift down for a second dose the u.k. got criticism. our understanding is according to the trials, the testing they have done, u.k. g

subadra rajappa of socgen.cleveland fed president loretta mester be catching up with the audience about what is going on, and dallas fed president robert kaplan as well. tom: are you telling me the fed is not going to start affecting messages in their speeches? jonathan: if we get a 1.1 percent tenure because we reopen this economy -- a one point 2% -- a 1.2% 10 year because we reopen this economy? tom: they are going to say one sentence, and all of a sudden it begins to percolate, and the question is what level does that happen at. jonathan: what they don't want is the pricing and tightening a lot once. they've tried to establish this so-called asymmetric reaction function and a more simple way of explaining that is just to say their message for all of us is that if things get worse, we are there to do more, and if things get better, we will step back for sometime. i think some people in fixed income still struggle on the asset purchase program. we really understand the story. do we understand the asset purcha

kit juckes is with us with socgen. we have seen some substantial moves in em currency. i notice south african rand, philippines peso, and others. where is the opportunity to get big figure moves in emerging market currencies? kit: the dangerous opportunity right now is that if the bond market fills up too fast, all the ones that have done well will start moving backwards. the positive opportunity is that if we spread the global it cannot come -- economic recovery more widely, that's where we have been for the last few months really is the place where there is yield done well, more recently, and that is because people want yields and feel better about the world. but i think the challenge in emerging markets in fx is they don't have the domestic growth. they don't really have the domestic yield. to justify a big rally from here come on anything other than the feel-good of easy fed in global recovery. so when we get spikes higher and bond yields, they all look terribly vulnerable. tom: and that is where i wanted to go. that is the clinic on the reality of foreign exchange.

socgen, bank of america. wells fargo anywhere between 3800 and 3850.ht now, morgan stanley's target at 3900. we pulled back just a little bit from all-time highs. tom and i talked about this over the last week. these price targets look really bullish three months ago. you talk to the south side, the strategist i have got those calls and they are still standing by them. as i have said repeatedly, it is a year and forecast by definition that can't be wrong yet. let's talk about levels. i was paying them some respect. let's get to the bond market and talk about levels in the bond market. 119.81 is your post pandemic high. i think it is worth talking about. we have had in the intraday record high and new post pandemic high on treasury yields as well. the real debate amongst the equity strategist through the week is whether high yields are good or bad for stocks and whether we see high treasury yields and also maintain loose financial conditions. that is what will be key for the fed. tom: and it is a conversation we are having with our guests here. some of

jonathan: socgen's chairman.s morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the price action looks like this this morning. equities now positive, just about up two points on the s&p 500, 3929. in the bond market, yields come in a couple of basis points after a peek at life above 1.30%. euro-dollar back to $1.2064. tom: west texas intermediate at $61 a barrel. we've got to look at that as well. right now, this is fun. jordan rochester with us with nomura, out of the university of warwick, and he is really quite good. very acute research notes as well. i want to go right to adxy, and your reaffirmation of pacific rim strength. adxy has been stuck all throughout 2021. how does the pacific rim breakout to stronger currencies this year? jordan: it is going to be a bit of a battle between the central banks who want to avoid having too much currency strengthen the area, but also we are in a global recovery, that reopening vaccine trade. it is very hard for currencies not to appreciate, especially

stays where it is right now, looking at real yields started to breakout here, joe, kit juckes of socgen ask the question this morning whether that is a challenge. do you think it is? joe: i think the weaker dollar store is oversold. i think dollar has a stronger bid than most realize because of the growth dynamics coming forward, earnings, and the competitiveness of u.s. companies. i would not be betting too much against the dollar. tom: this is really important. the first deflation talk of this week for us was at 6.0708. good deflation talk. the other thing i would point out, the most important thing is to reassess earnings and revenue expectations at corporations. it is a total mystery out there into august and september. jon: the good news already is that we have already seen positive year on year earnings and revenue growth for s&p 500 companies. did that come earlier than expected? joe: not necessarily. we went into the year expecting stronger than expected gdp growth, earnings growth coming here we are. we think that will continue into the worry? the markets will start looking to

jonathan: year in, 3800 socgen. bank of america, 3800. do you have a lot of people saying, when are you upping the price target? savita: tremendous pressure to get more bullish. the pushback is how can you be so bearish? your economists are looking for such a strong recovery in gdp. the thing to point out is the s&p is not the economy. the s&p is more tethered to business spending then consumer spending. the s&p 500 is higher in rather than lower end. what is interesting is investors basically want to have their cake and eat it too. the s&p went out for many years against a miserable economic backdrop. today we are calling for a monstrous economic recovery off of the worst recession we've ever seen and people still think that the s&p will be where you want to put your money. i think that is a false conclusion. there's got to be a change in leadership over the next 12 months if we've got a new administration in washington, d.c. if we are moving from absolute paralysis recession to the super strong very quick recovery, how can you continue

we're alive today operating under no action letter from the sec we clients like credit suisse, socgen can settle in different time frames. you can settle immediately. you know where the shares r that is a significant improvement the reality way it works today the technology is running on cobalmain frames from the 1970s. settling in two days is anachronism. why should you be able to get toilet paper to your house faster than you can settle shares of equities? that is not the way it should be anymore. maybe 50 years that made sense. what it is doing right now creating a lot of systemic risk. it is little-known, not well-understood because it is in the background but we should have a better infrastructure. we should have a better system. when it rains, the streets flood, we realize what the problem is but when times are normal it kind of feels like everything is okay. it shouldn't be that way. we need a 21st century infrastructure for our financial markets. that is what we're building. using blockchain technology you can really use the latest way to move information to move shares, in a

looking at your notes, you talk about the european green deal basket socgen has compiled.e have a chart that shows extensive outperformance in 2020 from that basket. i assume it is pegged to the way europe is going to spend those recovery funds on new energy. do you see that outperformance of this basket continuing into 2021? roland: the european green deal is a long-term strategy that has been designed by the european commission. they also propose one trillion. it has already started. it is part of the next generation. we will see in the coming years starting this year, money coming and more investment. the goal of the project, the strategy is to reduce massively co2 ivan glasenberg -- co2 emissions and to be carbon neutral. we still think there is a lot of value. anna: what are the types of businesses this basket includes? clearly, the wind business, wind power businesses and the like, but are there other businesses in there that we might not automatically associate with the new energy push? roland: we think about the green deal, energy position, everyone thinks about cl

socgen saying the market is not looking expensive considering they expect japan will deliver earnings growth of 45% this year. on s&p minis, little change this after the index rallied for a sixth straight day. we have crude rising very much in focus. this after brent tapped 60 bucks a barrel. new york crude above $58 with bloomberg intelligence saying you need a combination of factors like continued opec supply cuts as well as demand recovery, -- which we may not see until even the second half. shery: we are also watching bitcoin. it is continuing to search after tesla invested ¥1.50 in the cryptocurrency and signaled its intent to start accepting bitcoin as a form of payment. that sent digital assets soaring. the galaxy founder think sick go much higher. -- think they could go much higher. >> things are happening so much faster than i had prorated. the corporate adoption rate, the institutional adoption rate is accelerating beyond what i had thought about. i think bitcoin could end the year at 100 thousand dollars. shery: let's cross to ed ludlow in san francisco. this gtv chart show