i'm sonali basak. "real yield" starts now. ♪ sonali: coming up.he data paints a mixed picture as ppi comes in slightly hotter than expected. after soft pci, bolstered bets in a big way on a september rate cut. treasuries erasing this years declines as traders weigh the fed's next move. we begin with the big issue, the road to september. >> the economy looks as if it is slowing. >> the cpi report. >> a welcome development. >> a welcome surprise. >> there was normalization in very abrupt moves we saw in the main report. >> the negative month over month print was a surprise for the market. >> inflation is a lagging indicator. it is finally starting to catch down to developments in the economy and in the labor market. >> on the ppi, the supply side is not there to help what is happening in the demand. >> this federal reserve has been itching to cut rates. they would be crazy to go in july. they need to be steady. if they rush it, it will look like they are scared about something. >> they will start to cut in september. >> they should go to september.

i'm sonali basak. it's time for the stock of the hour.unced a plan to buy back spirit arrow for $4.7 billion in a bid to improve manufacturing. separately bloomberg has learned the u.s. justice department will charge the company with criminal fraud. leading it to choose between pleading guilty or taking the risk of going to trial. boeing reportedly has until the end of the week to decide. bloomberg intelligence's george ferguson joins us with more. if boeing is faded with one choice or the other here to plead guilty or go to trial, how do you think out those decisions and what it means for investors moving forward? >> i will start by copy out -- caveating that i am not a legal analysts but from the financial perspective, there is a $250 million additional fine. i think they talked about bringing in an outside quality inspector. and so, to me, none of those ramifications sound terrible. they sound very manageable, from the company's perspective. i would think it would be worth something for them to potentially put this problem to bed and t

sonali: i'm sonali basak and this is "bloomberg real yield."e for the option block where we kick things off in europe. widespread outages is keeping issuers on the sidelines this friday, capping weekly issuance in europe at about 18 billion euros. fur of the four of the six major bank marking the busiest weeks in two months. a different story in high yields. four different borrowers raising $3 billion as the summer lull takes hold. and tony rodriquez weighing in on where he sees credit spreads going from here. >> credit spreads are going to wind a bit. you have volatility from the election and economy slowing down. we've been in a golden age of credit in terminate terms of default. we don't see a recession like environment for credit. defaults will rise. that means you should see some widening in credit spreads because we may be overpriced here. sonali: let's bring in matt brill, head of north american investment grade credit at invesco. the first half was flushed with issuance. what do you expect for the second part of the year? matt: this has

sonali: i'm sonali basak. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. coming up, the fed's preferred inflation gauge rising at a mild pace in june, sending treasury yield falling across the curve. and boosting investor executions for that september fed rate cut. we begin with the big issue, the great fed rate debate. >> i do not think the fed is ready to cut in july. >> july is off the table. >> i am taking july off moving to september. >> september is still very much on the table. >> september -- >> september -- >> that is predicated on the consumer flowing pair that has already started to materialize. >> i think the fed has an argument to cut in july. >> the fed is late. they should have started cutting months ago. >> we should probably start to seat rate cut sooner rather than later. >> there is clearly a downshift and economic momentum. >> i do not think the fed would want to appear panicked. >> things are slower. >> we just hope they do not cut too soon. >> likely going to see the fed cut rates in september, but we do not think they can go very far

i'm sonali basak. investors on a wild ride this week seeing cracks in the tech heavy rally that has driven stocks from a record high. the s&p 500 had been fluctuating through the day. you are watching it seep into the green. it is about .5% higher. the nasdaq 100 also in the green friendly by .2%. the philadelphia semiconductor index about .2% lower. to your yields now down another two basis points are strong gdp data and a day ahead of pc data, the fed's preferred gauge of inflation. we will get a further look at the market with abigail doolittle. abigail: the nasdaq 100 down 1.7 percent after yesterday having its worst day since 2022. the big movement from a micro level. nvidia. arond the time of the up and down slightly. at session was down almost 7%. we are seeing a rebound out .5%. what makes this interesting is the stock is well below a key support level of 118. so long as it stays below when 18 it suggests investors are awaiting the quarterly report. but at the end of august. thre's quite a bit

sonali: this is bloomberg markets and i'm sonali basak.eo former moelis & company senior banker jonathan kaye's fight with the crowd in brooklyn has been released, obtained by bloomberg from the alleged victim's lawyer. it shows how the incident escalated to a punch that went viral on social media. we have to warn you the video shows graphic images. >> what does that mean? oh! [beep] >> you just pushed me. stop. hey! serves you right. why would you do that? oh! stop. stop. [beep] >> go [beep] yourself. go die. sonali: joining us for more perspective on the incident was todd gillespie who has been reporting on what was happening on both sides. explain the series of events from early june until now and what we know. todd: on june 8, the evening of brooklyn pride, jonathan kaye lives himself. there were revelers on the streets. a lot of people around. jonathan was walking along the street and has this altercation which has been widely shared on social media. very quickly after it went viral on twitter for the first time he was put on leave af

i'm sonali basak. more markets ahead. stick with us.s is bloomberg. ♪ >> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power. live from washington, d.c. >> joe biden says he will be back on the campaign trail next week. welcome to the fastest show in politics as the president tries to recover from covid and growing calls for him to drop out of the presidential race. i'm joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz. we have just returned from milwaukee. the big speech from donald trump, the problem for joe biden, and maybe even trump is that we are talking about the president's mental acuity, his age and ability to stay in the race even though many are still dissecting that speech that set an all-time record. kailey: it was more than an hour and a half long. it was a stunning split screen with donald trump meandering at times, talking about the policy he would like to pursue, while we are very much questioning whether joe biden will continue to pursue a second term as we have now eight or nine democratic lawmakers within

bloomberg crypto with sonali basak is coming up next but that does it with -- does it for bloomberg open this isloomberg. ♪ sonali: live from bloomberg's headquarters in new york, i'm sonali basak and welcome to bloomberg crypto come a look at the people, transactions and analogy shaping the world of decentralized finance. i'm joined by bloomberg intelligence senior analyst eric balchunas, one of the authorities on crypto etf's. i but that is not a job you thought you would up to have.

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i'm sonali basak. that does it for "bloomberg markets." and this is bloomberg. ♪ what about zocdoc?ns. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now. ryan t. writes, "moving is stressful. can you help me take one thing off of my to do list?” ugh, moving's the worst. with xfinity, you can transfer your internet in just a few taps. just a few easy moves. did somebody say “easy moves”? ♪ ♪ oh no. no, i was talking about moving your internet. this will move the internet. ♪ ♪ ooh, ooh. -let's keep it professional. professional dancers! -ok! stay connected during your move with the best in home wifi. easily transfer your services in the xfinity app. bring on the good stuff. >> this is "balance of power." live from washington, d.c. joe: joe biden calls for term limits on the supreme court. welcome to the fastest show in politics. i'm joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz in washington. nice to see you back here today in the capital. we are going to hear from the president later on today from texas as kamala h

sonali basak is one of the hosts of the show and she joins us now. >> so interesting because you havehow focusing on stocks also at a time when the bond market is very interesting. howard marks speaking to, looking at at the implied rate is for this year. two cuts only brings you down to about 4.82 as he implied a rate. you are looking at these companies refinancing at still a significantly higher rate than they bought the debt at. the point he is making is there is still stress in the system. banks are reporting at the end of this weekend into next week. another area is private equity backed companies, nonpublic companies, where the stress under the surface is hard to calculate. scarlet: hard to see because it is not visible to most of us. you mentioned banks reporting earnings. this is a big week for that. a big call from mike wilson from morgan stanley who sees a 10% correction as highly likely. >> interesting move here because you have the s&p 500 hovering around where he had been targeting the end of the year but he, like other investors, believe there is volatility heading into

with the numbers, it is bloomberg's sonali basak. line here, but something interest income even with a beat on revenue, returns on equity, efficiency a little higher than expected. what does this mean? it means goldman is ready to pay again, essentially unchanged from the first quarter of this year, but you do see them worried on compensation a little higher as they bring in more revenue, you have trading beating expectations on fixed income by a landslide and equity training -- training as well not only beating expectations but coming in over where jp morgan came in just last week, as well as over where morgan stanley is expected to come in tomorrow. a big chance goldman becomes a top player in equities trading once again, driven higher by derivatives as well as finances, additional clients, hedge funds. you also have david solomon explaining this environment as improving but complex. we are seeing volatility become goldman spent once again, jon. jonathan: you mentioned morgan stanley last night. what do you think the read across is

i'm sonali basak.wild ride this week seeing cracks in the tech heavy rally that has driven stocks from a record high. the s&p 500 had been fluctuating through the day. you are watching it seep into the green. it is about .5% higher. the nasdaq 100 also in the green friendly by .2%. the philadelphia semiconductor index about .2% lower. to your yields now down

sonali: i'm sonali basak. katie: and i'm katie greifeld. sonali: bank earnings are rolling in.t a fresh read on inflation. u.s. producer prices climbed slightly more than forecast in june. we are going to get consumer sentiment data from the university of michigan. katie: i defined biden strikes again, with the president bowing to stay in the 2024 race despite a series of missteps. let's take a look at where markets are trading. about 30 minutes to go until the bell rings. we

sonali basak has more. sonali: good morning.n i woke up was could you imagine if this were to happen during the covid times? how much activity has moved online for the banks and how much they have invested in cloud infrastructure, public and private? many rely on the private cloud infrastructure. how is it playing out? jp morgan, some staffers unable to log on. hedge funds have not been able to process certain traits across many funds across the world. hong kong, south africa, singapore. you have seen issues with trading desks and with employees able to logon. some people had to go home and hong kong, certainly in london. one big deal is the lse group, the parent of the london stock exchange reported issues with preventing news from getting published. the rns new service important here. 350,000 announcements a year. 70% of all price-sensitive news. think dealmaking. if you're announcing a deal, this would have been a massive problem for you. not to mission the commute issues. if you're just trying to get to work in london, hong

. -- bloomberg's sonali basak. sonali: it's been a massive debate.ave had such serious pushback not only from the securities and exchange commission, but president biden himself when it comes to certain aspects here. the biden administration's approach to how legislation has been crossing lines in congress. we are standing here at a moment when such little progress has been made on key stable coin bills. perhaps, a change in administration will start to dilute some of the stronger voiced that anti-crypto members of congress have had, sherrod brown, elizabeth warren. the idea that a more republican president and more republican lawmakers in congress overall will cause a dent in how the industry has been approached the last four years. ed: we have reporting that a yvette ramaswamy -- that of ramaswamy, musk, and donald trump, crypto is the common point. caroline: that is it for bloomberg technology. ed: we will be back from new york and san francisco. this is bloomberg technology. want to save on some of the biggest names in streaming on the network ma

sonali: i'm sonali basak. katie: and i'm katie greifeld. nali: tesla poses fourth straight profitless as alphabet faces pressure. matt: blackrock cuts its dividend after carson block warns is it may face a liquidity crisis. katie: and kamala harris's campaign war chest. we've got the scoop on their plan. but before we get there, let's take a check on these markets right now. because we are at session lows on the ncaa. your big tech earnings really disappointing and you can see that in big tech, down about 2%. same story at the s&p 500. a little bit blunted since it is a broader index. but the s&p 500 down about 1.3%. and if you look the bond market, it is crickets over there. very quiet. matt: on treasuries, but we see stocks losses get worse and worse throughout the session. we have only been trading for 31 minutes but we're now 1%. big losses at google. almost 4% for alphabet. and then we've got tesla down right now, 13%. so, big tech earnings really off to a bad start. tesla missing its profits for a fourth quarter in a row. alphabet unde

i'm sonali basak. "real yield" starts now. ♪ sonali: coming up.s ppi comes in slightly hotter than expected. after soft pci, bolstered bets in a big way on a september rate cut.

." ♪ sonali: i'm sonali basak. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now.

i want to bring in sonali basak and katherine doherty for more.tart with the bank earnings and when you are looking for in terms of the capital markets business, investment banking, fees, trading, commodities. >> a lot of people were expecting for investment banking to seriously jump back, underwriting in particular. debt underwriting has been superhot. mna has been a massive question mark. what does that mean for the banks? their businesses sustain themselves into the end of the year. we have an election cycle coming up. there is a lot of question around the numbers you see this current quarter, third quarter, second-quarter, meeting up to what you mean by the end of the year. what they say in their calls about that growth will be important. scarlet: let's bring in cap into the conversation. i bring up capital markets and trading because we look at that to get a sense of capital markets. you have been covering citadel securities and its new strategy to shakeup banks and trading desks. what is going on? katherine: this is not the biggest banks, th

. >> live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i'm sonali basak. >> at times to -- and i'mypto. >> bitcoin is sliding below the $67,000 mark. has not been able to sustain the rally after pro crypto remarks by former president trump. tim: we discussed these remarks and how crypto is playing a role

here's sonali basak. f america baeting -- you have bank of america given guidance on what they expect to bring in on that interest income later this year. they expect that number to jump from the $13.9 billion you see in the second quarter two about $14.5 billion, so and increases the end of the year in interest income. that guidance is critical. where to the extent this to come from, that is the most interesting part. you are member those held to maturity -- they believe they could reinvest these securities, and what we understand is about $10 billion rolloff per quarter, so about $40 billion per year, now into higher-yielding treasuries. this is also a reinvestment of assets like mortgage loans and auto loans, that had been extended at lower interest rates, now moving into higher interest rate product, so higher for longer helping bank of america out, little bit of a lift in the premarket. a strong read across the board. a real quick note on credit letty, provisions for loan losses meeting expectations,

. >> i'm sonali basak. and i'm katie greifeld. oses as alphabet faces pressure to keep up on a.i. matt: blackstone cuts 24% after b

i am caroline hyde along with sonali basak. sonali: we are seeing still a bit in the market.ta plus a lot of things to talk about on the geopolitical front with elections abound. caroline: meanwhile, bit of crypto. let's get to the markets because there has been a bit of a rally on our hands thanks to what seems to be an ability for the fed to continue to cut into the year. maybe even september is on the table. we will discuss it with mike mckee. tech stocks, a reprieve. the revisions were what people were worried about into the reading into nonfarm payrolls. the bond market moves reticular leon the short end. -- particularly on the short end. we are talking british pound come of course. u.k. elections, a lack of volatility for the future with keir starmer winning in a landslide majority. the pound is the best performing currency on the g10. crypto is down 2.8%. it is off of our lows but there seems to be selling pressure. selling pressure maybe from the german government. we are currently trading the lowest since february. the s&p 500, remember, we have been and record highs