the spd is leading by about 1.5%. the cdu however is a very tight second, close to the spd. both men as you played in that clip are claiming they will try to form a government. olaf scholz yesterday was very clear on the fact the spd has added seats but the cdu has lost seats, meaning i should go first and i have the clear mandate. the problem is the cdu feels they are still in the game. i was outside the headquarters yesterday and armen lasch at you best believe will fight hard to form a government. he knows his political future is on the line and the only way he gets to salvage what was a horrible election for the cdu is to form a government. you best believe he will try to form a government with the greens and the liberal democrats. francine: you are a in the middle of road work, i don't know if it is something we should expect. a lot of the campaign was about the old infrastructure. what about the kingmakers? you have the liberals and the greens and it is probably a three-way coalition. which way are they leaning? >> this is a three way coalition. this is unexplored terr

. ♪ the spd because they want the change of government and want the name of the next chancellor to belaf scholz. >> a warm welcome to our special coverage from berlin what can we tell you the result at this stage still very close we have the official preliminary results that suggests that the spd is likely in the lead to form the next coalition government to run europe's largest economy, but the leader of the cdu csu not quite giving up yet at this stage although armin laschet has admitted disappointment at the block's worst showing since 1949 but he has vowed the race is still not over. >> translator: we'll do everything we can to form a government under the union's leadership because germany leads a leader for the future that modernizes our country. >> so the green and the liberal party, the fdp are clearly the king makers in these upcoming negotiations the coalition talks are about to start. paving the way for the first three-party coalition here in germany since the 1950s. >> translator: this federal election gives the fdp a special responsibility we do not underestimate the chall

of| spd, that would be a meeting of minds. _ spd, that would be a meeting of minds. a — spd, that wouldax on big _ minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending _ minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending. that— minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending. that is— minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending. that is what- minds, a centre—left party, big tax on big spending. that is what theyj on big spending. that is what they feel germany— on big spending. that is what they feel germany needs, _ on big spending. that is what they feel germany needs, but - on big spending. that is what they feel germany needs, but looking i on big spending. that is what theyl feel germany needs, but looking at the poll— feel germany needs, but looking at the poll numbers _ feel germany needs, but looking at the poll numbers right _ feel germany needs, but looking at the poll numbers right now- feel germany needs, but looking at the poll numbers right now the i the poll numbers right now the figures — the poll numbers right now the figures are _ the poll numbers right now

the spd will not be able to govern alone.hey later made it clear who favorite partners would be. >> the voters made it clear. we should form the government. they strengthened three parties, they social democrats, the greens, and the fpd. >> they social democrats not be the only party trying to win allies. despite leading the conservative party of angela merkel to the first -- worst result, armin laschet did not concede his party's right to governor -- govern. >> no party can derive a mandate to govern from this result. that applies to the spd. the election campaign is over. no one can act as though they alone can decide who will form a government. that is why talks with potential partners are necessary. >> a looks as though the conservatives will not be getting first dibs in those talks. in their postelection press conference, the greens coleaders indicated it will be the social democrats they would turn to first. >> there is a certain logic to talking to the spd and fpd now, it does not rule out that we will talk to the cons

he is behind in the spd in the polls at this point in time. as for the third candidate from the greens who started off the race as a superstar, she has since slumped. it seems quite tea or she is out of the race for the chancellery itself. but she could still when the greens, the biggest historical result in the parties history. the party has become more mature . out of all the parties in the race it looks like it is the greens that have the highest possibility of actually forming part of the next government. >> we will take a look at other stories making his work. a flaw way -- huawei executive stuck in canada is free to return to china. he reached an agreement with u.s. prosecutors to end the bank fraud case against him. the case has soured relations between washington, beijing, and ottawa. a makeshift migrant cap on the u.s. southern border shrunk after authorities increased efforts to remove people. america has deported some 2000 haitian migrants back to their crisis hit country. the u.s. special envoy to haiti resigned in protest describi

the spd has fought a aood the sdp? the spd has fought a good campaign- _ the sdp?the spd has fought a good campaign. i think - the sdp? the spd has fought a good campaign. i think there . good campaign. i think there are a couple of things. one is that voters of course have now got no incumbent chancellor standing for re—election. so they took an opportunity to think about who they would like to leave the country and the social democratic candidate has conveyed a sort of aura of stability, he looks like a steady hand as leader. really he has been quite persuasive by contrast, the cdu's and estate armin laschet has a difficult campaign —— candidate. he looked to be uncertain on how to handle floods, had not had the best coronavirus pandemic and so cdu — csu have lost ground and they are unusually united in recent elections i have looked like a divided party but they have had a stronger campaign. issues on the environment _ stronger campaign. issues on the environment are - stronger campaign. issues on the environment are high - stronger campaign. issues on the envir

our top story this our — provisional results from germany's elections show the centre—left spd have narrowly the biggest share of the vote. but can they form a government? it wants to natanz negotiations involving several parties, the whole of europe waits to see the shape of the new coalition. and i'm sally bundock in london. also in the program— concerns continue over the uk's fuel supplies as government ministers consider asking the army to step in. seeking refuge — a special report from albania which has opened its doors to those fleeing afghanistan. and a huge win for the united states in golf�*s ryder cup as they regain the sport's ultimate team prize. they win19—9. hello. a very warm welcome to berlin, where, well, half the political analysts and politicians themselves have been up all night. it's still dark here but the sun will bring up with it a picture which shows both of germany's main parties, their leaders claiming the right to govern after this unpredictable election race. the result insofar really raises many questions, as they do answers. with all 299 districts reporting now

spd is still ahead, 25%. then you've got the cdu along with the sister party, the csu.s could be critical there on 17% and at the moment the free market liberals are on 11. the reason all these parties matter is the next government of germany will be a coalition and there are any number of possibilities here. there are other parties on the ballot that may also be a factor. let's hear fromatthew, our chief european correspondent or politico on whether the spd could realistically take this. >> it looks realistic at the moment. as you have said, the holes have been tightening and we are well within the margin of error. for the past six to eight weeks would say, the momentum has really been with the social democrats and it doesn't look at the moment like there is any real impulse there that would propel the christian democrats forward and allow them to take this election on sunday. armand losh was this evening with angela merkel and as has been typical for him throughout the campaign, it didn't go well. it started raining, there were hecklers in the crowd. he has had lot of

gets more confusing for german voters, the spd gets more confusing for german voters. the fact _ spdters, the fact that _ spd gets more confusing for german voters, the fact that you _ spd gets more confusing for german voters, the fact that you have - voters, the fact that you have leaders — voters, the fact that you have leaders of _ voters, the fact that you have leaders of both the main parties here _ leaders of both the main parties here come about saying they're about to form _ here come about saying they're about to form a _ here come about saying they're about to form a government, and actually, there _ to form a government, and actually, there is_ to form a government, and actually, there is no_ to form a government, and actually, there is no light in germany saying that they— there is no light in germany saying that they cannot. so normally if the biggest _ that they cannot. so normally if the biggest party would try and form a coalilion— biggest party would try and form a coalition government first and the other— coalition government first and the other would wait their tu

let go to between the greens and the spd and the liberals and his spd.— and the liberals and his spd.at is painting it as a significant victory there. how would that change? if thatis there. how would that change? if that is the weight goes, how would that is the weight goes, how would that change germany's perspective further afield? that change germany's perspective furtherafield? let's that change germany's perspective further afield? let's start relations with the uk to a centre—right government to a centre—left. with that change much? on traditional foreign policies, centre—left. with that change much? on traditionalforeign policies, any switch very, very likely. so if it were to be a different outlook, of course. a centre—left government would have more difficulties with a centre—right government in the outlook of their political approach. olaf scholz and the opposition could be more difficult. —— could not be more difficult. traditionally, the uk, british politicians have very often miss read german politicians. famously, david cameron and also johnson and also theresa may very

the spd candidate _ serious problem. the spd candidate did _ serious problem.ate did not lose - serious problem. the spd candidate did not lose his| candidate did not lose his cool candidate did not lose his cool. he stuck to his line, centrist, moderate and unintelligible. ~ ., ., , unintelligible. whoever wants to covern unintelligible. whoever wants to govern in — unintelligible. whoever wants to govern in germany _ unintelligible. whoever wants to govern in germany must - unintelligible. whoever wants to govern in germany must have| to govern in germany must have clear possessions and transatlantic cooperation, they must make it clear that nato is indispensable for our security and that we must fulfil our obligations within the alliance. they must make a clear commitment to a strong and sovereign european union. the second tv debate focused on domestic politics and climate change. with the green party candidate accusing the other two of doing too little to cut carbon emissions. translation: we have to exit cold sooner, before 2038. we cannot keep on going f

this point is that olaf scholz, the current finance minister in that coalition but the head of the spd, he will become the new chancellor and then we will see a number of other representatives from the other parties take up jobs in the government but the business community and wealthy germans think this is better than the outcome we could have got if the spd had got a very, very clear lead on the conservatives. back to you. i hope that's clarified it somewhat for our viewers >> it is, geoff, because it's all very confusing but guess what, the market not confused to your point the german dax up nearly 1%, the best performer in europe so obviously the market people like this outcome, whatever that outcome may be geoff cutmore live in berlin we appreciate it, geoff. thank you very much. >>> the whacky world of german politics still on deck, a crypto trading hamster, yes, a hamster, that is beating the s&p 500 and tiktok traders taking on congress what else could it be besides your top trending stories this morning and those are ahead. it is 5:18, grab a cup of coffee, a long way to go we'

he will have to draw in the greens but also the spd, and the problem is the spd is a natural coalitioner for the greens, but the natural coalition partner for the liberal democrats germany is the cdu and it was made clear yesterday by its leader. we are in for a beauty contest that will probably last months before we get anything that looks like a coalition government in germany, potentially into next year. manus: ok, thank you very much, maria tadeo up all night and working hard chasing the politics in berlin. great work on the ground overnight, we will see you in the morning. we have a few lines coming through, the central bank governor in japan, saying, we have the text from his speech, they will not hesitate to add easing if necessary. the dollar is a little bit lower this morning. governor kuroda says they need to continue with easing persistently and watching the economic impact of covid closely. uncertainties for the economy are high due to the delta variant. this is the narrative should still -- you think about the fed and the bank of england and the norse bank, those three mov

his spd has surged and voters are planning to vote for it.he greens are in third place. >> i'm thinking about spd or left party. >> i think the best option is green. >> germany is conservative, it doesn't matter who is the candidate, it will always be them. >> i think spd and greens will be ahead. >> something lacking -- on course for the top political job. will his appeal carry his party to a win on voting day? >> brazil has been one of the countries worst affected by covid with more than half a million deaths, but it's august city sao paulo has become a -- it's against city sao paulo has become -- biggest city has become better. >> sao paulo is out doing country when it comes to vaccinations. 99% of adults here have received at least one shot. >> of course i think people should get vaccinated. and that means everyone. >> many brazilians are afraid of the virus and get vaccinated so as not to be so contagious. >> vaccine skepticism seems rare here. the city is now rolling out jabs to young people with pre-existing contion, like this woman's

tt if the direction is towards the cdu or the spd-— or the spd.t is difficult and it is historic. the small- or the spd. it is difficult and it is historic. the small parties l or the spd. it is difficult and it l is historic. the small parties will you would have thought a few months into a pandemic that would have been to number one driverfor how into a pandemic that would have been to number one driver for how people voted and it has not really turned out that we in germany. it's been my significant in deciding where people place their votes. it's a fascinating analysis and we will be back here very shortly because it's so much to say for the time being there was not earlier. we will turn to the uk because the bbc understands the government is still seriously considering bringing the army tes and earnings and petrol pumps. that is despite ministers saying this morning that they had no plans to do so. supply problems triggered by a shortage of tanker drivers have snowballed because of panic buying in some parts of the country. i would business e

the focus is very much on the spd.not the liberals will join the government with the greens. anna: ok. that's an important conversation with the spd. that's coming up on bloomberg. thank you. coming up, the stocks we are watching this morning. a distiller says businesses back for 2019 levels as bars and restaurants reopen. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open numeric -- open. equity futures pointing to the upside. a nice rebound expected for european stocks this morning. we start with the drink sector. doing pretty well there. sales momentum returning. >> yeah. it's very similar to what we've seen with us some -- a few of the some larger distillers and brewers. getting people back into restaurants and bars has been key. that's the part of the business that makes higher margins. people drink and cocktails at home is great. people drinking cocktails and bars is better. it looks as though that is helping. shares rose this morning. some of this may have been priced in. we've heard it from o

spd squarely in the lead but still a lot of questions about the permutations of the next government we'll be talking about that in the coming days. as for sectors, every sector is trading in red z you can see i touched in cyclicals travel and leisure down 2.7 percentage points. banks down 3 percentage points and basic resources down 4 percentage points, heavy day of decline. health care and food and bev are the relative outperformers but still down .5 or 1 percentage points as well what does this mean for the recession? not well, the s&p is scheduled to open 50 points lower, dow about 400 points lower as well, a loss of about 1 percentage points so when were you looking at another day of losses for wall street in the next coming hours. one of the major themes that i mentioned, gas prices are soaring with the uk amongst the hardest hit. prices for gas are up 250% consistency january with a 70% rise since august that is before a demand spike in the colder winter months. prime minister johnson said the problem is temporary saying high demand in asia had hit uk supplies his comments come as t

the spd was the front runner over the final weeks of the campaign.ctions indicate the party will win 26% of the vote. the christian democrats are set to win 24.5%. both men say they aim to lead the country's next government. nancy pelosi has pledged to pass a $550 billion infrastructure bill this week. she says she will push the measure forward on monday. the senate has already passed the bill but mcgrath are invited on a separate bigger path to spending and tax measures. pelosi says that headline amount of that bill would be lowered. >> let me just say we are going to pass the bill this week. i promised we would bring the bill to the floor that is, according to the language those who wanted this to be brought to the floor tomorrow wrote into the rule. but i'm never bringing a bill to the floor that doesn't have the votes. vonnie: elon musk has addressed china's world internet conference, reassuring the country about his company's commitment to expand their. a promise was delivered from a xi jinping that the country would work to create a vibrant dig

the spd, the greens and the left party — party. the spd, the greens and the left party all _ party.y all wanting to introduce that wealth tax. that is a tax that has been abolished in almost all countries, but it could be a huge burden on businesses and it would reduce investments and it would reduce investments and it is a hazard for economic growth. it is a hazard for economic urowth. . , it is a hazard for economic i rowth. ., , ., it is a hazard for economic urowth. ., , . ., growth. that is a prospect that even the pragmatic— growth. that is a prospect that even the pragmatic peter- growth. that is a prospect that even the pragmatic peter finds worrying. even the pragmatic peter finds wor in. , even the pragmatic peter finds wor inc. , ._ even the pragmatic peter finds wor inc. , worrying. they say, take it from the — worrying. they say, take it from the rich. _ worrying. they say, take it from the rich. i— worrying. they say, take it from the rich. i mean, i worrying. they say, take it i from the rich. i mean, nobody became — from the rich. i mean, nobody became rich without w

the spd list 206 mps is the largest party in the bundestag. the chairman has been reelected, and he is relaxed about the greens and the spd. >> i am very confident we will be able to talk with clear convictions about the challenges for this country. we have ideas, we have a roadmap, and above all, we have olaf scholz. >> the cdu and csu are realizing that another candidate was the winner. >> olaf scholz has the best chance of becoming chancellor, clearly. >> the ftp and the greens want another round of talks on friday with more participants, but still strictly confidential. brent: let's take a look now at some of the other stories that are making headlines around the world. a tornado in the northern german city of kiel lifted several people off the ground and tossed them into the water. you see the funnel cloud there. that is all according to the local police. six people were hospitalized. the prime minister of kosovo has asked the region to replace special police forces unblocked order crossings with serbia. the move is to stem ongoing ethnic

particular between the greens and the scp -- spd. much spending will i get in which areas, decarbonization, digital spending is something everyone can agree on. what is probably off the table is probably some of the tax hikes like a wealth tax and some of the more aggressive intervention which someone in the greens and also on the left would favor. overall, i think this is a progrowth message really for equity, whether it influences the rates market much remains to be seen really. over time we see bond yields going higher. but it does look as if germany overall will become a country that is spending more and become a bit more domestically driven rather than being focused on those export driven growth we see over a decade now. guy: can i bring it the conversation we were just having moments ago about what andrew bailey was signaling. if you are christine lagarde and you are looking at that kind of scenario that you've just laid out, what of the monetary policy implications are slightly stronger spend out of germany, is that enough to

we know that the spd is leading. you mentioned the traffic light coalition.lso mentioned the greens. the spd and the greens are clear this country will need major additional funding to modernize the german economy and they focused specifically on green and digital. they say that spending could come into the tune of 50 billion euros. there are obvious winners that could emerge from this, renewable energy, anything that means turning this economy leaner and more efficient on the emissions and greener side. there is the tech and telecoms, especially the liberal democrats say that is where germany should focus on cutting and investing in the technology of the future. the flipside and this is where some of the downside risk could lay ahead is that prospect of a red-red-green coalition, that is a much more to the left tilt and german politics that would include the far-left and at that point a focus would be on some of the potential losers, and that would include the auto sector, which is huge in the country, also planes and aviation. it could also be real estate,

a tech result in the general election, but the centre left spd are marginally had. translation: i am happy with the boats in _ translation: i am happy with the boats in this _ translation: i am happy with the boats in this country. - translation: i am happy with the boats in this country. dave | the boats in this country. dave decided the — the boats in this country. dave decided the social— the boats in this country. dave decided the social democrats. decided the social democrats for... in the uk, there are shortages of fuel. there is a large number, more than half, which have already run dry, and those others are running dry quite quickly. albania opens its doors to the sling afghanistan. we talked to the man who has agreed to stay on as man mark's ambassador to the un. -- on as man mark's ambassador to the un. —— me and myanmar�*s. and a church in la palma collapses after being engulfed in a river of lava as the spanish island's volcano continues its disruption. live from our studio in singapore, this is bbc news. it's newsday. it is 7am in singapore and 1am in g

there's no way the spd can win the election.t a disaster this has been for the cdu, but it shows the different dynamics in the election. in terms of olaf scholz, it does seem like he's on autopilot to win the election. having said that, a lot of the german political commentators i speak with, they say that grilling on monday is probably not going to be very significant. this is incredibly complex. there is no evidence to suggest he personally got rich from this. and it also seems like the cdu move to make this -- make him look bad. the timing of this in a region the justice minister is a cdu member -- tom: may end up backfiring for them. maria, as always, great analysis. olaf scholz on autopilot for the moment, at least. maria is going to keep us across that story. maria tadeo, thank you much indeed. coming up, eurozone cpi comes in at 10:00 a.m. u.k. time. make a note of that if you are looking to boe and its rate views. and the fda hears booster shot arguments for the white house vaccine plans, the controversy around that. tri

what to say to that was that yes both the cou and spd i theirjob.ones together with the left party-— the left party. so you're saying whatever germany _ the left party. so you're saying whatever germany eight i the left party. so you're saying whatever germany eight doesl the left party. so you're saying - whatever germany eight does need to be done with the european union, it needs to be done collectively, germany do this on his own. germany isn't doinu germany do this on his own. germany isn't doing it — germany do this on his own. germany isn't doing it on _ germany do this on his own. germany isn't doing it on its _ germany do this on his own. germany isn't doing it on its own. _ germany do this on his own. germany isn't doing it on its own. we _ germany do this on his own. germany isn't doing it on its own. we just - isn't doing it on its own. wejust have a clear agenda that we can't leave the coal until 2030. and where the only party together with a laugh that say so. we see that both these parties, they deny that we can do it and most players

the two parties are more different because spd took a very dramatic leftward turn over the past five years, and when schultz ran for chairmanship three years ago, he was beaten by two people who nobody had ever heard of. they had very strong left-wing leaning interests. if the policy of the spd to take over germany, you would find more government spending, a little bit less military spending, a little bit more turning to policy that was recognized on the progressive side of the democratic party. the real problem seems to be that schultz and his party have nothing in common. if he does become chancellor, he and his party are going to have to find out what they stand for. that will be a very difficult process. matt: we really appreciate your time. thank you so much for joining us. john kornblum there. u.s. ambassador to germany. we will have live analysis as polls close on sunday. the coverage will start at 6 p.m. berlin time, noon in new york. but we are not done talking about the german election. we will hear about what one man sees as sunday roles in. this is bloomberg. matt: this i

the spd 126% of the vote. christian democrats got 24% -- the spd won with 26 percent of the vote.hristian democrats got 24%. the president's packages set to be lower than the 3.5 trillion dollars. a showdown for the economic agenda. the head of the cdc warns that part of the u.s. health system is in dire straits because the spread of the covid delta variant. it is forcing hospitals to begin to prioritize treatment. a supply chain crisis. some gasoline stations because of panic buying. questions and has allowed companies to get supplies. he has relaxed travel restrictions. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> let me just say we are going to pass the bill this week. i promised we would bring the bill to the floor, according to the language of those who wanted before tomorrow. we will bring the bill to the floor tomorrow for consideration. i'm never bringing a bill to the flow that doesn't have the votes. jonathan: speaker pelosi on the bill this week. the eq

. >> that is the view of one candidate from the spd, the social democrats.et's hear from a green party candidate here in the state of brandenburg, which contains berlin. these are her hopes. >> we need to implement climate protection government in the first few days after sunday. that includes, at first, immense expansion of renewable capacities. it also includes or whole economy must be transformed toward a carbon neutral economy. that is only possible with a massive amount of renewable energies. to produce green hydrogen, which we need for the industry. >> to put that into context for people watchin the cdu said it would finish coal by 2038. angela merkel's party argues germany cannot do this on its own. if it makes the changes you suggest but the rest of the european union and the rest of the world does not move, germany would be at a disadvantage. what do you say to that? >> both the cdu and the spd so yocannot leave coal at 2030. >> whatever germany does needs to be done collectively, germany should not do it on its own. >> germany is not doing on its o

language] citizens have the choice in a few days either a government that accepts the support of the spdes not exclude it. or, i'm only telling the truth. or a federal government led by the cdu and csu. ross: we heard a reference there to a party from the far left, democratic descendant of the communist party that governed old east germany. as all parties know there will be a coalition government of some form and they are offering themselves as a would coalition partner with the social democrats and the greens and misses merl is keen to ward off voters who are in fact not focused on the bricks -- risks she sees and is trying to present her own party candidate as a stable leader for germany. >> it's also about tangible economic and fiscal considerations that will define the future of this country. that is why, ladies and gentlemen, the best way forward is a government led by the cdu and csu. his government will stand for stability, reliability, moderation and balance, exactly what germany needs. >> being presented as a stable oice, but may not be enough. have a look at this latest poll th

if schulz, the spd candidate becomes chancellor, he is very much in the merkel mold. think we would see a huge difference there. you might see in terms of access he exerts on certain issues. you might see some differences. these are people who wt the status quo, stand for stability, campaigning on stability. schultz has been going around germany saying he is the true heir to merkel. i don't think we are going to see any sort of radical shift in germany if either candidate wins. nancy: after 16 years in office, this does feel for observers like a landmark ection. what is the public mood? is there excitement around this election? tthew: there is not as much excitement as you might expect ahead of such a momentous election. i was listening to the german public radio this morning, the main morning program. they were discussing dante. i think that suggests there is a bit of fatigue with the campaign. i think a lot of germans just want to geit over with and move on. because they are looking at most likely stability in terms of policy, they are not as excited about it as man

that is the spd, liberals and of course the green party as well. he believes that is a clear mandate for the three parties to form a coalition obviously with himself at the helm. you're also absolutely right to point out that the cdu doesn't see it that way. they face disastrous lossness this election. there is no way to sugar coat it. they are coming out saying they believe they could be able to form a coalition n. germany it doesn't matter who gets the most votes as long as they can form a coalition. whoever is the head of the coalition would then become the chancellor. it seems as though, isa, as though a coalition with lashett at the helm is unlikely. olaf oholz is still ahead and that's a bigger margin than merkel had. we see the social democrats saying they are going to try to form a coalition as fast as possible. all of it depends on the greens and liberals, whether they're willing to follow suit. that's going to be very, very interesting to see after what was one of the most exciting elections that we've certainly seen in the last two decad

the spd came in first which means that not technically but politically they might have a prerogativeorm a coalition but what we have already seen is that the greens and ftp are flirting with each other because they have to join any form of coalition. the traffic light orjamaica coalition. so i think we are looking at a very long period of negotiations between the smaller parties and at one point the bigger parties trying to step in and one can make at this point no prediction. the ftp and the _ this point no prediction. the ftp and the greens, - this point no prediction. the ftp and the greens, several policy issues that lead to smaller parties would crash over. is it possible they could work together? at over. is it possible they could work together?— over. is it possible they could work together? at some point the will work together? at some point they will decide _ work together? at some point they will decide to _ work together? at some point they will decide to work - they will decide to work together because in 2017 a jamaica coalition was on the table and the ftp at one point

the spd, like other social democratic parties in europe, have been struggling.argin, this is because of the... it is because the finance minister, the candidate, he presents himself... stefanie, we are going to leave it there. a good point. to stefanie and latika and david, thank you very much. goodbye. hello. last week we had the equinox, the astronomical start to autumn. this week, the weather is catching up. last week and through the weekend we saw above average temperatures. but this week, back to average figures and it's going to be looking a lot more unsettled. through the weekend we sat in a southerly air stream, warm air being pulled up from the continent literally overnight though into monday, we flip round to an atlantic air stream and a westerly or north—westerly breeze and a very different feel and look to proceedings. monday will start wet across the eastern side of the uk. the rain pulling away into the north sea by around midday leaves many long spells of sunshine to get through the afternoon, but the westerly breeze will add to that cooler feel.

so in this particular case, it's interesting to see that the spd and their two perspective coalitionreens are the only three in this election to have actually gained seats whereas the others have lost seats. and they didn't just gain seats. it looks like they're going to gain about 100, which is a really substantial kind of shift in change. and i think it really makes that conversation the only sort of salient coalition talk moving forward. and i don't think the cdu can really be part of that and that they cannot expect, after 16 years and this appalling performance, to continue to play a role moving forward over the next four years. >> yeah, it's certainly an end on so many levels here. i want to go back to that original europe question. so you're talking here about a fragmentation of german politics in line with patterns we've seen in europe and elsewhere, it must be said. so what does that then mean for europe because in many ways germany and mrs. merkel herself, so east german, so steady, so rock solid, has sort of held up europe in many ways. what does it mean now that germany m

you assume the spd will win the election in about three weeks time.will have a range of possibilities. he could turn to the liberals, the party of christian lintner. and the more market friendly, perhaps. also market letter policies. you could have the traffic light coalition. this is the greens. the free -- the spd. you can also have the greens on that front joining, too. if it doesn't work, he can turn to what is represented as the green, green, red coalition. that means greens, but more far to the left parties here. that is being presented as an option that would not be the most market friendly for investors. it could potentially go for bigger tax hikes. a lot of it will depend on the outcome of the election and polling. what is clear is the next chancellor will have a difficult job. it is not just about governing with another rival or a two party coalition, but heading into a three-way government. tom: maria tadeo with an update on what some of those different combinations could mean from the back of the political run. the election on september 26

ferro, and lisa abramowicz. -- of the spd. keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities are softer by 30 points. the nasdaq 100 down by 9.3%. yields with a left, up four basis points to 1.53%. it is the cyclical trade we are debating all over again. tom: it is a redux of that. the one difference this time is oil. the one difference is commodities. jonathan: big break out in crude. great to catch up with jeff currie this morning and then francisco blanch. just the underinvestment we have seen in the old economy. tom: you got to the headlines nicely. i can't get my glasses on today. as i opened it, this is a huge misunderstanding of how tight the market is, and when it goes, these elasticities mickey price move faster than you could ever think. jonathan: brent crude at $80 a barrel. francisco blanch and the team at bank of america looking for triple digit crude next year, and according to him, we are one cold winter away from getting it sooner. tom: the tape a little bit more constructive in the last 30 minutes. let's

polling is favoring spd's olaf scholz, they also expected to be a traffic light coalition.maria tadeo. when it comes to stocks, which of the potential losers -- which are the potential losers and winners on the backs of these coalitions? maria: i am not a stockbroker, i have to say that, but there are some themes shaking -- shaping up in the run-up to the vote. no every major political party says this is a country that needs to modernize its economy, that is on the digital front and also on the green front. when you look specifically, you mentioned the traffic light coalition, when you look specifically at the manifestoes from the spd and the greens, they say the country will need additional financing of about 50 billion euros to modernize the economy. a few sectors could emerge as winners, that is renewables, a big component in terms of cutting down emissions and turning them into cleaner energy. the tech names in the country with the liberal democrats saying they want to cut red tape to boost a new energy that could be the future for the german economy. anything related t

a tech result in the general election, but the centre left spd are marginally had.in this _ translation: i am happy with the boats in this country. - translation: i am happy with the boats in this country. dave | the boats in this country. dave decided the — the boats in this country. dave decided the social— the boats in this country. dave decided the social democrats. decided the social democrats for... in the uk,

the latest has the spd on 26 percentage points ahead of the conservatives.olz's success comes as investigators open an investigation over the anti-laundering unit accusing the finance minister of downplaying the incident >> translator: it is a miracle in the case when the prosecutor's office comes and investigates, you can display such whitewashing. my finance minister was to work the way you do, we would have a serious problem. >> let's get to anetta it seems the other two candidates were firing shots at olaf scholz. at the end of the day, the public thought scholz has done the best >> it seems he cannot be damaged withanything scholz was involved in. also him involved in the wire tap scandal and dividendis scandal with scholz being involved he is untouchable, it seems. the attacks get more emotional than previous debates. take a listen to what he had to say as a reply >> translator: you see how things are misinterpreted a bit. you have to take that clearly. there was no investigation it is no case from the prosecutor's office in the investigation in the mi

the leader of the spd, current frontrunner to release angela merkel as chancellor.eeks to go roughly to the elections. joining us from berlin is maria tadeo. did the tv debate change anything? maria: well, it didn't come at to the extent that there was a poll conducted right after the debate, and olaf scholz was the winner. but that is not a surprise, considering he is polling very strongly as a candidate. just today, we had a new poll come out that put the spd at a lead that is being cemented. there is this idea, particularly in berlin, that a this stage, it really is about olaf scholz not making mistakes, and he is on autopilot to win this election. of course, we know that coalition talks will be very difficult after that. the christian democrats of angela merkel are still clinging onto it. polls are polls, and this is a very left government. that could scare perhaps the elderly, the more rural population of germany, voters who perhaps may not participate actively in debates and may not be on twitter. they talk about the real germany that would come out to vote. t

if there was to be an election today, it would be the social democrats and the spd that would win the: never mind the politics you have the winning shot of europe behind you. that is for sure. you leave me in the best quite literally. stunning. maria tadeo, there you go. the winning combination. we will see you a little bit later on. coming up on the show, it is more on the evergrande story. we will hear from ray dalio. is he going to say about the indebted property developer? does he think it is a lehman's moment? no, not for him. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's get a quick check of the --- this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny in dubai. evergrande's debt crisis is manageable according to ray dalio so investors will be stumped -- we spoke to bloomberg at the greenwich economic forum. >> there is a tendency, understandable tendency, to think, because they are malware and communists, that they are going to go back to that kind of thing and they are not. xi jinping just, for example, introduced the newest stock market in beijing. he made a point of

dynamics have not changed, the spd still cementing his lead.s one thing in the debate that caught my eye, it was annalena baerbock and olaf = scholz saying -- olaf scholz saying it could be partners. i do want to say in the past few days, we've seen the cdu narrowing the gap when it comes to the spd. they are polling second, they have stuck at the drain when it comes to votes. a lot of my contacts at the cdu tell me they still believe they can win the election on the basis that germany is still very much a country that is traditional conservative, but they are backing on burrell germany to swing the vote. having said that, the polls until now are clear, if the election were to happen now, olaf scholz will be elected chancellor of germany. dani: maria tadeo live in berlin. don't forget, you can catch up on our special preview of what is at stake for business in germany's election, a great special from francine lacqua. germany decides. take it out on bloomberg.com or youtube. soaring property prices are also forcing people in germany and truly al

a lot of it would assume the spd wins the election. poll putting the spd on 25% in the election. so cementing that lead would be -- in this high political traffic light coalition, joined by the green and liberals in germany. it is a coalition really driving the political conversation in germany. it is seen as the option they would favor -- he would favor if he were to win the election. polls are saying it would be the case getting to september 26, it will be him. the coalition meeting will be very difficult. when you look at the greens, they have said that for them, hitting the climate targets is a crucial point. the liberals say it is about not increasing taxes and some of the climate targets would be detrimental for the german industry. so it is a tricky balance of power that would have to be overseen. it is a very complicated mix of different parties to put together. the difficulty it is not just two different groups working together, but the fact we are heading into a three-way coalition. tom: one of the contenders of the freedom d

the spd is predicted to win 25.7%, while the conservatives will likely take 24.1%.eanwhile, the greens have common at 14.8% and the liberals have taken 11.5%. we have more from berlin. reporter: with a spring in his step, -- meets the media. he has no doubt who should lead the country forward. >> the voters have spoken very clearly. they have said who should form the next government. they have strengthened three parties. that is the clear mandate from the citizens of this country, that these three should be the next government. reporter: three party coalition has never been tried at the federal level, but with barely 1% of the vote separating the two main parties, now the attention is on the smaller parties. >> the two big parties have suffered heavy losses in recent years, and there needs to be a new push that comes into the government. it's good that all of the parties are talking to each other. reporter: the composition of the newly elected parliament is now clear. one of the things that is perhaps why we are seeing this happening, the free democrats and greens a

the spd, olaf scholz, the leader, has spoke about his situation.reens, so did the free democrats, so we should form some sort of democrats and the conservatives, the cdu, they may not be far behind spd but way behind where they were before and they shouldn't be in opposition — they should be." one or two seniorfigures opposition — they should be." one or two senior figures within the conservative ranks who have said pretty much the same thing. first blood very definitely to the spd as they start to think about how they are going to build a coalition government. the challenge, of course, is to bring those two other parties on the side, the greens and the free democrats. they are not natural bedfellows, far from it. the free democrats. they are not natural bedfellows, farfrom it. and pulling them together is going to be very difficult. it was interesting to hear the leader of the free democrats at least to say, yes, we have to be pragmatic, and think very seriously about how we step into government, now. that is the way the wind is blowing at the mom

we assume our affinity with the spd will be greater than with others. >> the mandate from voters is all genuine democrats talk to each other and then make a decision. >> the social democrats for their part will first speak with the ftp on sunday followed by the greens. yes pdr bidding everything on this potential coalition. >> we want to talk soon about whether we can form a government. we believe this can succeed considering the great challenges we're facing and that is why there is no plan b nor any thinking abo alternatives. >> the exploratory talks are picking up speed. now does time for the parties to sound out will become their new political allies and who will lead the next government of germany. brent: what could be the last nazi trial in germany took an unexpected turn today. a 96-year-old woman who was a secretary at a death camp during the 1940's was do to stand trial but she failed to appear in court. she has been charged with more than 11,000 counts of accessory to murder. her absence at the court led to the police issuing a warrant for her arrest. she was fnd a fewours lat

the fdp is not in favor, nor do they share the spd views on a number of budget issues, including raisingncome taxes. key issues that could make or break these alliances. yet one thing they all share is a pro-european stance, something saluted by the french secretary of state for europe, who praised germany's commitment to moderation and continuity as paris looks forward to the next chapter of neighborly relations with berlin. anchor: if coalition talks drag on for months, it could have implications not just for germany but all of europe. we have more from berlin. reporter: it is a problem not just for germany, it is all of europe waiting on germany with crucial decisions ahead. with the fact you have all kinds of rushers, and we have seen the news cycle in the past couple of weeks, with standoffs over china , standoffs over trade issues, over global taxation, and without europe's number one power, germany, which has an even greater role to play now that the u.k. has left the european union, a power vacuum at the top that lasts for months is in nobody's interest, particularly as a france'

reject violence but don't forget a lot of the people who oppose corona restrictions are voters for the spdthey vote for the christian democrats as well. don't stigmatize them. others were accusing her of actually stimulating populism and extremism. quite a bitter and slightly emotional aspect. brent: let's hear now from the man, the conservative who wants to take angela merkel's place. what he had to say about afghanistan. >> as we saw in afghanistan, if the americans withdrawal, we will not be able to secure kabul. that is why i want to set up a national security council to pull all of our information and strength in foreign policy. we need more europe. we have to speak with one voice. we need to start joint projects including armaments projects so we can act once the u.s. withdrawals of that is a task the next administration will have. brent: when the u.s. withdrawals , he is talking about, how can we act when the u.s. bows out? what do you make of that? >> thinking of afghanistan and the bavarian colleague in the christian social union, he said the problem in afghanistan was quite clear

the centre—left spd in germany celebrates as early projections suggest it is marginally ahead in a tightarks? are the tories scum?—

she used it to attack her coalition partners — the centre left spd — and the party on the rise in thement that accepts, one that is not excluded. i am only telling the truth. or a federal government led by the cdu and csu with them as chancellor. die linke party that mrs merkel refers to there is far left — and the democratic descendant of the communist party which governed old east germany. and as all parties know, there will be a coalition government after this election. die linke is offering itself as a would—be coalition partners with the social democrats, the spd, and the greens. mrs merkel is keen to warn voters of what she sees as the risks that would involve. she's also seeking to to present her own party's candidate — this man, armin laschet — as a stable leader for germany. translation: it's also about tangible economic and fiscal considerations which will define the future of this country, the numbers ofjobs and are common prosperity. that is why, ladies and gentlemen, the best way forward for our country is a government led by the cdu and the csu with armin laschet as chan