here another spike, you would have bought it right there even here we had a spike not for a really obviousn but again you would have been long the market another spike, you would have gotten it here why is this actually working the reason is that the vix actually suspect so much a predictor as it is responding to what the market is actually doing. what would happen -- we had the vix closing close to 30. what would happen if you bought the s&p when the vix was 30 or above and held it for one month and three months normally, the returns for the s&p are going to win about 60% of the time over one month, and about 60% of the time over three months if you buy the s&p when the vix is over 30 you get an improvement of about so% you win about two third of the time if you hold it for three months you are going to be up money about three quarters of the time how much money do we make on average? on average over one month the s&p makes about 70 basis points. over three months it averages about 1.7% if you buy it when the vix is over 0 the one month average return is 1.7% and the three month average r

here another spike, you would have bought it right there here, we had a spike not for an obvious reasonould have been long in the market why is this actually working the reason is, that the vix is not so much a predictor as it is responding to what the market's doing. what would happen? we had the vix closing close to 30 what would happen if you bought the s&p when the vix was 30 or above and held it for one month and three months normally, the returns for the s&p are going to win about of 0% of the time. over one month at about 6 on% of the time over three months the you buy the s&p when the vix is over 30, you get an improvement of about 10%. if you hold it for three months. you'll be up money about three-quarters of the time how much money do we make on average. on average, the sx & p makes about 70 basis points. a little bit less. over three months, averages about 1.7% the you to buy it when the vix is over 30, the one-month average return is 1.7% and the three-month average return is 5.5% you have a higher probability that it will be up and the amount you make on average is also hi

we had know spike. a double bottom again with two 10% sort of corrections. with united states we enter a new volatility regime, it's likely to stay a bit it doesn't matter if the vix is 25 or 17 it's a relative basis. i don't believe the sort of awakening we've had after sort of a very long period of no movement is something that's going to go quickly. >> the average vix is nearly 20. if you start pulling out the really volatile time's we've seen it's going to be 15 or 16 that's going to definitely lower the numbers. what we saw coming into this was exceptionally low. >> before we saw that period, this time you could count on both hands the number of times that had happened since the inception of the vix and all were -- >> ratio that wasn't a signal of gsh -- >> we've seen huge upticks in options volume both ways we've seen actually huge upticks even in the open interest in some of the speculative products that everyone -- first of all, i don't think those products are dead we're going to write the epitaf on those two soon. but we have seeing signals this is

you've had this huge spike.the patterns of the last 18 months has this really -- volatility with spike early on, but then later in the day, it would say back in and they would want to making well for the day. i think what we see here is volatility sellers are trapped. >> wended fear of missing out kickback in here? -- wended fear of missing out theirn here -- when did of missing out kick in here? >> >> -- in jena, ato bring chief strategist. >> what is likely to be happening in the final hour of trading #>> a lot of this, we broker key support levels. >> that has seem to have created this pretty big -- it has been a while. there's not a lot of support until you get to the hundred day moving average, so that would be my next target. >> it is never easy to identify where the selling is coming from. about earnings for the entire last week. wantedax reform is not to percent a great story. they are starting to really dissect that. -- that is really starting to dissect that. levels find some support . the want to show

also spiked asas well. it gives you the sense of how much selling there was, at least in the last 15 or 20 minutes. treasuries, itat is interesting there as well. that isa lot of concern what was driving the selling. we are seeing where you have this rush to safety. -- >> it is not just bond yields. unchanged level for most of the trading session. artainly, it is -- it has direction. the move is deathly what we are observing here. for more on some of the statistics come of the trend we are seeing, let's bring in abigail doolittle. >> it is certainly an extraordinary day for selling. than 1000wn more points, the worst since 2008. the question is, when will it turn? about --u were talking it is certainly what traders are looking for. the s&p 500 up 20%, its best month in january. these huge gains suddenly turning quickly on a dime. this is 3701. here is the extraordinary rally. dow had been the overbought for quite some time. now simply spiking below. the dow -- if we look back, lessers move up -- if you look

it's almost too textbook the vix spikes, trend spikes. >> that's the point. >> it's almost, almost too perfect of i don't know if the fundamentals are changing. the market will sniff that out but at this point it still looks like just a pullback within a longer term bull market. our cycle, bottom 16 i think the next bear market is 19 i think 18 issing go to be fine but more volatility. >>> heard the out, too bill canada. anybody like any of these names? >> i have got a question about disney on your chart you sort of had in channel. >> yeah. >> what sit downside fit breaks through the bottom of that. >> i didn't put the 200 week on that if you look at 200 week as a proxy for the fur year moving average that's where it bottomed at 16. the low end of the trading range i think is going to hold i don't think it's going to break. you had two years to break this in the bull market i think the downside is limbed >> rob, a pleasure. >>> coming up, tesla reporting their numbers moments ago. the conference call kicking off in a few minutes we will let you know what elon musk is telling investors

short so interest has been spiking -- short sell interest has been spiking.about concerns about a funding deficit at the uk's ministry of defense. also concerns about the collapse of other government contractors. another .6% of the float up to 2.3% at the start of november. export i am looking at -- at hexpol. this is dropping the most since october. two downgrades, downloaded -- upgraded to can late and sell at the boston marathon bombing markets desk bnp markets -- guy: let's stay in the aerospace airline sector. fighting talk. you would expect nothing less ido michael o'leary. while others like easyjet are coming out and saying they will reduce pricing going to summer, ryanair is having none of it. coming out and saying we don't see it delete good story coming through in the summer in terms of affairs. price war the summer. easyjet is trading down on the back of that. let me say the dashboard. michael o'leary is talking about the fact that he is going to stand up to the unions. he is having none of it from the pilot unions. easyjet came out and sounded qui

volatility spikes.sn't there more liquidation still to come -- is there more liquidation still to come? commodities up in selling. we are going to speak to bob dudley of bp. matt, let's talk about these markets and figure out what is going on. we know it has been ugly for equities. australia down by 3.2%. roughly.i down 10% futures are making a comeback a little bit. interesting to see the chinese taking a little bit of action. maybe to limit the losses for investors there. keep an eye on what is happening with the dollar. let's show you what is happening in the commodities space. we are about to speak to bob dudley. brent is trading down. by .86. the bloomberg commodity index is down by .3 of 1%. what we are seeing is a move down. we've got a half hour to go until the start of european trading. matt: take a look at futures. it looks rough. when you look at european features, we have seen a recovery in s&p 500 futures. .2%.own only remember, they were down only .09% yesterday. is.u.s. markets, that euro

we had initial spike on friday and that led to selling.ver the weekend, that, of course, led to a lot of the risk parody funds have to liquidate massive amounts of positions. this is through the end of the day yesterday. we're now seeing volatility come off its highs. if volatility stabilizes, the vix stabilizes, not back to the ridiculous levels we've seen -- >> this just -- gosh, if a picture could say 1,000 word here >> unsustainable if we settle around 20 below in the vix, if we get some stabilization in the bond market, then i think we can start to sort through these other markets and create some stability in the overall asset markets. you know, the risk is the bond market continues to sell off if we -- if the fact this budget package goes through and we have higher deficits, higher financing needs. if bonds were to sell off and we convincingly go through that 100-day moving average, we could go down another 100 s & p point to about 2530. >> if we can sum this up in one sentence looking at all of the charts, for somebody who is maybe

spiking and yields we are seeing five year yields tightening. how does this have to do with liquidity? michael: liquidity is key. julie hyman was referring to structured products, and they are starting to make a mess in the market. ,hen they start acting crazy the market completely disappears. no liquidity whatsoever. you have the stock exchange trading upper rhythmic trading, machines are at work. you mentioned a scenario in your rates going down, not up. and interest rates for stronger yesterday. -- for stronger yesterday. this is machine driven. is the tech bubble done with? the short volatility notes julie hyman was just talking about was a major factor in machine machinations of yesterday. we have so much of that in the markets today. there is no liquidity, as you said before. i believe this creates opportunities. know there are smart people making money this afternoon. they identified the same things i am talking about. if the economy and inflation and all of the things continue where they are, people will be making money when these things

what you have is markets worried about deficits and higher -- not like a spike, an incredible spike in will basically hurt the economy. take money out of stocks into bonds and that's what you have right now. that's really what's going on in the market. it's a debate about deficits and interest rates now. i just talked to bob nardelli who is pretty smart, he thinks it's going to pay for itself. he thinks apple repatriation is a -- will help pay down the deficit. the markets aren't convinced. liz: this is now a worse session low. >> this is bad. look at that. liz: you guys see this? down 50 and down 72 in two seconds. we're going to take a quick break. come right back, a pretty wild final couple of minutes. don't go away. we've got to see how this ends. ... >> in this commercial break we are now down 121 points for the dow, i need to go right to the new york stock exchange, gerri'm willis what's going on? gerri: wait a couple of minutes it's all going to look different the dow down 117 points s&p 500 down a third of a percentage here, we're seeing a lot of trouble in the markets here let

it's a straight spike. -- interest rate spike. a warning on the interest rates. abramovitz, just a look at positioning in the market. come inside the bloomberg. s&p net position's. you are looking at the vix. you can see the stock reversal. we start with a record high and we have seen a huge reduction in positions. is it over? gina: i don't think anybody can guarantee it is completely finished having its impact. however, considering the pricing we had on friday which was a just which was the majors swinging lower, i think you got to take a little bit of solace from that. when you take a step back and look the fundamental stories, fundamentals price by two thirds. you're looking at an s&p -- it looks a lot better. say that the technicals are not going to continue to worsen in the short-term but the fundamental stories still intact. revenue estimate revisions still rising. we are looking at this as an opportunity to put money to work. david: there was a piece on the bloomberg the said the last two corrections went down to 15.5. did that help anything? gina: every c

historyee through usually after the spikes, it goes down.h,ook at the trend goodill see that actually is still falling. is the white line on the chart. look at the yellow line of the chart. sideways ating best. ofare not in the beginning inflation. we're moving slowly in terms of higher inflation. >> we have more than cpi today. we have a chart looking at the retail sales. what are we seeing here? shows the numbers and you see there was a big spike in the fourth quarter of last year in terms of sales. we think consumers -- and will seeharge all the tax cuts coming their way and they will make up later on in the quarter. >> i know it is a cliche to bring the weather, but it was really cold in january. do you think that had an effect? >> yes. the whole reason. if you look at nonretail sales, they were not sitting at home and shopping. if you look at building materials, other sales, they were hurt quite a lot. maybe it was a little bit of whether there. >> thank you for joining us. coming up, steve bannon speaking out. the former white house ch

-- >> we had a spike in rates >> yep and we had the big concern >> now we've had a spike the other way in stocks. >> not all stocks. not all stocks not all stocks >> but enough of them. as the market has recovered, a number of stocks have recovered almost all of their losses dom chu is at the wall to take a look at some of the names that have had a big come back >> guys, i've been listening intently to your conversation. it echoes my sources of where they think the tea leaves are. we wanted to take a look at stocks that have made recent highs, 52-week highs, multi-years, or record ones, and that have pulled back and recovered all that ground. the s&p 500 right now, 93 companies are within 5% of their record or 52-week or multi-year highs, recent highs anyway 81 stocks have hit their highs, 52-week or better, just this year alone 13 have happened just this week alone. take a look at some of these names, vf corporation is one on the apparel side of things, within a half a percent of record high levels northrop hit a record high today, just today. tapestry, the company formerly known as c

we have the spike in the vix. session,ack to today's in terms of what is holding back further declines in the u.s. market, part of it has to do with large-cap technology. microsoft has been bouncing around. apple has been consistently in the green after couple of its big suppliers reported earnings that were better than estimates. amazon has held onto gains as well. that has helped pare the declines a bit. we have consistent underperformers -- a five-day chart of these companies that have really helped lead the declines. exxon mobil down for three straight sessions. that three days like the worst that october of 2008 -- three-day slide the worst since october of 2008. the fed will be sanctioning the company -- johnson & johnson has been experiencing jitters as well after the talk of amazon getting into the health care industry last week. those shares down 10%. julia: a lot of idiosyncratic risk out there. mark: house speaker paul ryan says republicans would favor the release of a second house intelligence committe

what happened specifically was when we saw a spike in the 10 year, we saw the dow go down. show the chart, please so that our audience can see that. jonathan hoenig, isn't that the point that the moment that the investors saw the spike in the yield is when the dow began to tank? >> yes, david bonds are shut erring, interest rates are speaking we haven't seen something like this in years. in fact people are waiting for the fed to raise rates. interest rates are moving up even faster than the federal reserve is and the market seems to be seeing that inflation is real. when does this matter, i think people have been saying that i think you're starting to see an indication it matters now, as soon as those rates started to spike the dow took what a 500 point -- david: we'll see right there. keep that chart up on the screen if you can because the yellow of course is the dow, the blue is the yield on the 10 year, and john, the point is that the market was up initially on those fed notes because the fed said we're not going to be very aggressive about pushing up rates but i'm wonde

course the president of the country's curling federation thinks crucial it ski's summer here been spiked potentially brought on us about them to be truth is that alexander didn't intentionally take the punt substance we've asked investigators to find out how he could have ended up in his body without his knowing to put it bluntly he could have been spiked the expose concluded that it was a single dose taken in the past several weeks or even days now who in his right mind would take a bun substance knowing that he's one of the top competitors in facing increased. i've known alexander for many years and it's been a long road for him and anastasio and all of that just to take his habit so foolishly i'm sure it wasn't right or. yeah well we spoke to the scientists a developmental dony him he said that a single dose would be unlikely to have an effect on an athlete's performance anyway. it is not merely seen rich be. used once or twice or three. you should take milk or no four for four days. courses of treatment for his new girl eight recommended by but. one man's three months even six months

shares spiking, hanging onto a gain of 3%. huge coincidence, then bernanke he yellen are speaking right now in washington. we will bring you those highlights. let's get a check on the first word news with mark crumpton. mark: house republican say they don't plan on pursuing new legislation to ban on assault weapons or to expand background checks for gun sales. speaker paul ryan said he is more interested in protecting the rights of "law-abiding while majority with

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we don't know yet which one of these is going to be spike.he will be coming to new york in just a few weeks. we'll keep you updated on his progress. i can't wait to meet him and introduce him to you. so busy day. getting ready for a busy week. infrastructure week finally here. make sure you stick around for the white house briefing coming up at the top of the hour. thanks for joining us. i'm dana perino. here's shepard smith. >> shepard: a live look now. there it is. that is the white house briefing room. the briefing was to have begin at 2:00 eastern standard time. they changed that to 3:00 eastern standard time this afternoon. now they have changed that to 3:30 eastern standard time. the briefing will happen and we'll have it on fox news channel. i'm shepard smith in new york. this is "shepard smith reporting." we're expecting questions about how the white house handled domestic abuse accusations about rob porter. president trump tweeted over the weekend, people's lives are being shattered and destroyed by allegations. some are true, some a

level, but higher, and spikes similar to what we are seeing right now. you are seeing is monetary policy off the table and stocks need to stand by themselves. in addition to that, we were in such a low regime for a while that we had to stop. vonnie: why are we not seeing treasury yields rising faster? 2.85 on the 10-year. there is not been as much move in treasuries. christopher: a couple things with treasuries and treasury yields. their moving higher because inflation expectations are going higher. but usually when you have risk aversion and when you have the equity market selloff you see a run to risk aversion and the interest rates, back. an auction yesterday and more supply in the court vacates matters. i'm surprised they have not gone down in the equity selloff. mark: what about the possibility from my backs -- more vivax with a reasonable back? does with the recent pullback? get through as we the earnings season, you see more discretionary activity come through, and with the market pullback, what we have seen in the past is that the depth and you a

i don't think the price will necessarily spike as a result.ine: peter dixon, andrew sheets, stay with us. up next, south african president jacob zuma's fate is set to be sealed today. we are live in cape town next. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: you are watching "bloomberg surveillance." south african president jacob zuma's fate is set to be sealed today when the ruling african national congress meets to finalize the transition to a new administration. zuma has defied pressure to resign since his deputy replaced him as party leader. our south african economy reporter joins us. what can we expect from today's meeting? is it definitely more pressure , and canzuma to resign the anc force him to do so? >> there is more pressure on president jacob zuma to resign as head of state. the deputy president did say at a rally yesterday commemorating the release of nelson mandela from prison, he clearly stated that today's meeting will finalize what has been two weeks of talks between him and president jacob zuma stepping down before he is scheduled to, wh

certainly, relative to prior vix spikes.easure the realize correlation relative to the vix correlation is at lifetime lows. that suggests that for all of the ugly feelings that you feel in your stomach right now, the that there is order to the selloff. and that the correlation -- there is a lot of discrimination about what stocks and factors are getting sold, and what are the performance. i think that is a significant metric to keep your eye on. david: as you look at it, do you have any sense of how much of this is a matter of the economy and the markets on the one hand, or washington on the other? is it a coincidence we are going through some of the things we are going through in content, or might there be a connection is the markets, investors -- congress, will take on more and more debt? this,l: i would say regarding the short-term issues on spending and all that and a deal, that is noise here. you are touching on a very important issue. bill, we were talking about $1 trillion, give or take, of incremental budget deficit.

it is inversely related, volatility will spike.ssuredly, when we see a spike like this, in our estimation, when there is not an underlying fundamental change, we do not have a crisis of some sort, this will come back. cycles,go through life from value to growth momentum. we are in a momentum phase. you get catalysts like interest rates that we have seen rise on both sides of the atlantic. you end up with a little tweak. and then volatility goes. it didn't affect the fx markets. you get a sense there are people who short volatility. we've been addicted to low rates for a decade. whoe are a lot of people short volatility in a bunch of ways. there are fx trades that are affected. it is tangential, a second order effect. francine: it was volatility pent-up? >> you could argue that is indeed the case. we've seen a downtrend the last couple years in volatility. to a higherving interest rate world, and the market needs to adjust, and we have valuations, it is not a surprise you have a momentary one-off spike as there is some adjustment. w

>> certainly there is a risk that interest rates will spike. i think what you saw last week we started these wild gyrations in the stock market. that thousand point drop we had on monday of last week was only the 99th largest reduction on a percentage basis. even though that doesn't point sounds like it's dramatic, in the history it's not that large of a swing. what triggered that is not the fact we were overheating the economy but we were borrowing too much money. the treasury had reached out to primary dealers last week. >>chris: but now you have to borrow more money. >> to anticipate the additional debt. i think what we keep coming back to is we've fundamentally change the structure of the economy. it's not a sugar high. it's not the same thing obama did. we have fundamentally changed the structure of the american economy where we can change the long-term trends of our growth possibility and that we'll have that sustained growth that can maintain. >>chris: now you're also adding $400 billion in new spending and $1 trillion deficit next year

evan, what i have here is an equity vol spike come a but we don't see what is happening -- despite, butn't see what in spreading just yet. do you see that this might have some contagion going into the future? guest: this is the interesting thing, a lot of comparisons are drawn between 2008 and 2009, and the last time we spike towards this level in 2015. it is an interesting conundrum. the difference is that then you could look at the macroeconomic reasons. you had your issues, things like the euro crisis. this is different. a movement across portfolios, across asset classes in terms of where funds flow. if you look at last monday's trading in the u.s. come you can see the s&p moves down. the money was heading straight into the u.s. 10 year. the other thing i would probably answer that way is between 10 and 12 is the standard level you should be seeing in the vix. i don't forget should be. historically it is north of 15 or 20, which people will point to as being possibly complacent. they always over correct. the vix market is always rapid. you do actually see the protection into it and h

republican party from trump's very own party the tariffs could actually have a negative impact and spike prices in products like automobiles electrical wiring and even beer cans. ok now we've seen with the administration just really in the last two weeks dan that they are not shy about imposing import tariffs they did it on solar panels we discussed it here on the program in some detail and they also did all of washing machines so what's the timeframe on the president making a decision on secretary ross's proposal or president trump has until april eleventh to accept or reject the recommendations so i think in that period until april eleventh we can expect to see a massive lobbying fight over this issue and. comes at a particularly interesting time in terms of foreign policy as u.s. and north korea trade barbs and threaten war there are elements within the trumpet ministration that are pushing for a so-called bloody nose strike namely chief of staff h.r. mcmaster and japan hosts twenty three u.s. military bases so this would serve as a major point of attack for the u.s. if it were to act

starts to spike, it's like the first breeze that signals a storm is coming.forecast, the vix isn't entirely accurate. it often thinks the storm will be a hurricane when it's really just a drop of water. basically it's a half —— glass half empty index. this is something a group of investors have bet on to make quite a bit of money recently. the only problem for them is that when it comes in they get caught outside without an umbrella. the olympics kick in pyeongchang today. while much of the news has been dominated by north korea's participation, the event will deliver a boost to the south korean economy “— deliver a boost to the south korean economy —— kick off. soul has spent $12.5 billion to build 0lympic facilities and one estimate says the event could bring south korea nearly $40 billion in economic benefits by attracting additional1 million foreign tourists each year for a decade —— seoul. earlier i spoke to a career expert and professor at king's earlier i spoke to a career expert and professor at kings cup london. —— korea. iasked him if those numbers

we saw the ball spike. to be honest, they did drop.ds we are looking at are the powershares, spl the fund. both of those combined are $20 million in assets, almost half of the entire market in terms of assets for lowball funds. 4.6%funds sell by at least , ending on february 9. that is better than the s&p 500 's slump of 5.1%. it was not as much anticipation as some were -- as much protection as some were anticipating. scarlet: how did people react? >> we have seen in the month of february small -- out of these low volatility funds. close to $400 million outflow early february, a larger institution. in general, it will be interesting to see how inflows and outflows, what they do in a rising rate environment. scarlet: we have the inflation data today that suggests the federal reserve may need to stick to or accelerate its path of increases. how do these strategies fair in a rising rate environment question mark -- environment? in particular has access to bond market regulars. us, becausey with as you know the etf industry has something

you saw the vix spike up to $50, but it actually closed lower. so some of the worst, if you look at it numerically, is over as far as the fear factor goes. actually, we were lower in the vix just a little bit ago. you talked about that turn around that we saw at the 12:30 hour, my time anyways. we went down in futures contracts, the s&p traded over my shoulder, we went down from the lows of tuesday night, and we tested those but did not go lower, so then you saw a reversal, and we rallied 70 points straight up, the positive. that's how bottoms are made. now, we've got to close positive on the day, and there's still a lot of time left in this session, and you know how it works this last hour, but that could be the beginning of a bottom. the vix slower and -- liz: money is fungible, guys. if it leaves one area, it has to go somewhere else. >> it moves. liz: absolutely. tim, where did you see it moving? >> well, you know, the utilities are having a pretty good day today, and they have been an underperformer for most of the year, frankly. the rates a

a spike in the vix.t really a huge spike when you look at how the market has behaved over 30 days with the vix at approximately this level, the absolute worst 30-day period you've seen since january 1990 is down that's sharp peak to trough. we have already seen a decline already. even in the worst case we are not seeing the absolute bottom falling out. the other point, the market is still higher when you are looking to hedge your portfolio there is in fact still time to do that. the first thing you need to do of course is find a portfolio proxy. look for an etf that looks like your portfolio for most people, that's fpy. then think about am i preparing for a dip or an outright crash and when the prices are higher think about using spread let's look at what the vix has done you can see it has risen quite sharply. as i pointed out we aren't quite at full-on panic mode prices yet. obviously the s&p has rolled over here. if we look at where we were at the end of the last year we are still higher not too late

out how he could have ended up in his body without his knowing to put it bluntly he could have been spiked the experts concluded that it was a single dose taken in the past several weeks or even days now who in his right mind would take a bun substance knowing that he's one of the top competitors facing increased gruesomely i've known alexander for many years and it's been a long road for him and honest and all of that just to take his habit so foolishly i'm sure it wasn't right or you hear so many people say it just doesn't make sense we spoke to the scientists to develop will deliver to get his thoughts he told us a single dose would be unlikely to have an effect on the athlete's performance anyway. mildren mary is not merely seen rich be. used once or twice or three. you should take mildred no four for fourteen days. courses of treatment of his mill girl eight recommended by produce. one man's three months even six months up to you depends on the. disease the patients have the rough occasions occur when in though chris new skis doping results led to calls for russian athletes not to be

the spike in the figures has been attributed to stockpiling ahead of the new year. coal imports rose to the highest level since january 2014 amid colder weather across the country. chinese exports rose more than expected >>> let's get analysis on these numbers and talk about china macro more broadly with michael metcalf from state street global markets. good to see you. there's always a lot of seasonal volatility with the numbers. when you styou strip these out, does it tell you >> the lunar year timing, energy imports boosted numbers. the underlying trend is very telling. you saw it in the german data as well global trade volumes are healthy. so the chinese export numbers were also stronger than expected >> all of this despite the protectionist back drop. >> protectionism is probably a bigger risk than last year we were worried about it in 2017, but the data changed our minds. that's where we got the strong global growth, rising tide, but the trade data is still putting that negotiation across. >> the surplus narrowed somewhat i guess the trump administration will

jay douglas holland is taking a different approach in dealing with the spike in flu cases. even though his waiting room is empty -- >> what are the symptoms? >> reporter: -- he still treats five to ten patients, over the phone. >> bod ache. >> i go through a pretty thorough history about fever, chills, headache, body ache, and sore throat. >> cough? >> if someone has all of those, i feel comfortable in treating them over the phone. and we are not charging for that. >> i love you. >> reporter: the heaths all got a flu shot to avoid spreading the virus and to protect their son they're asking the community to get their flu shot. last year in arkansas no children died from the flu o'but so far this year three children have been killed by the virus, which is why doctors are still urging people to get the flu shot. jeff? >> scary numbers. omar villafranca, thank you very much. >>> more than four months after hurricane maria, fema is still providing food and water to storm victims in puerto rico. early in the crisis the agency awarded a large contract to a businesswoman from atlan

join >> you say that could make interest rates spike. it absolutely could. a healthier economy than even we expect it. >> just because republicans are doing it doesn't mean it's any better. trim for the trump administration ready to rollout the 2019 budget that includes funding for the border wall at $1.5 trillion for infrastructure. cheryl: investors closely watching spending after last week's big fall turnaround. the pallet 330 on friday. the dow up to 96. transfer yields on treasury are sensitive to deficit spending issuing more government on the pier taking a look at the 10 year treasury yield which is rising joe scheid to .9% this morning. cheryl: oil prices can be a factor back in the $60 a barrel three-year high for u.s. drilling activity last week. lauren: in europe after falling 5% last week, the european stock indices looking for a very strong opening. the dax up 2%. cheryl: in asia stocks in japan closed for a national holiday, but the shanghai composite of three quarters of a percent. lauren: is this another sign of inflation? are you ready to pa

correlations tend to spike when you least want them to.hart that looks at the 12-month correlation. you can see that in the bloomberg. charthat happens -- wrong , but that is cool. we can talk about that. when you see a pickup in correlation, what is the most effective way to protect yourself? mark: this is after the fact. when correlations despite, people who think they are diversified -- the extreme case of that would be risk parity. they got it wrong. it is too late at that point. this is we can't getting flushed out here this is my point. we are going to see this feedback happen again. it will not be driven by the small area of the market. it will be driven by actual holders of stocks. i'm just trying to get at, if i'm investor and i have to protect myself, i was in the wrong products, what do i do? i turn to you, mark, oh what can you do? mark: there is not much i can save for you. --'t rely on thursday risk diversification. if you can be honest about the fact that you are not diversified and there is one big bet out there, this monet

and when volatility spikes and you're levered short you can lose everything which we saw in ecstasy reminds me of the make it puts that were being written in one thousand eighty seven yes some of us are old enough to remember writing stat more than half of hedge fund managers are less than five years in business well i think that so they don't remember eighty seven and they don't remember two thousand but if you think about portfolio insurance and what it did it was a pro cyclical strategy right it does more of what's working and what that insures is like passive index funds what does that in short means you have the maximum exposure to exactly the wrong thing when the turn happens and that's exactly happened fix time a warren buffett or so and i totally accept a one million dollar bet with warren buffett you said has found a lot before in the s. and p. five hundred of the next ten years why do you think he'll win this time when others have lost well look the last ten year bet that he made with ted sadie's was was a really interesting bet and for the first five and a half years buff

we had a flash crash and we saw the viks spike up. -- the vix spike up. it added up for the year with a lot of choppiness. and it still ended flat at the end of the year. we'll have volatility and down days, we have have reevaluation and we can end up with an up market by the end of the year. definitely it's the first time. charles: d.r. this -- most of people are sort of saying -- most of experts are saying we have been through it before. we don't want to dismiss the worries of folks who haven't been through this before. but what happens if it does keep going down. when do you start to change your mind if this doesn't stop? >> that's a great point. we are at a good inflection point right now. we have hit the lotus day, and below this are the overnight lows between monday and tuesday. so this is a very important point for to us look at. going down below here, we are still a long way away from many of our technical analytics. we have the correction now. if we tack on another 3 to 5% below this -- >> let me ask you about the moving averages. i like to use t

a big spike that we have not seen since 1990. >> it is telling me that what we are seeing is financialarket volatility which is not being translated into the economy. >> it tends to be the fact that credit spreads are more reactive to shrew economic volatility over the name turn and less to short burst of risk. i think what is interesting is that since the crisis, people have looked to credit instruments to hedge equity risks. what we are seeing is a breakdown of that relationship. is no longer a hedge instrument. >> you said the wake how that people are hedging their reassesss, you have to what value your putting at risk or calibrate your exposure is a proportion of that. does that mean as we go through the adjustment, people take less risk? what scarlet is saying, lord volume in particular. -- lower volume in particular. they still have the same value at risk budget, so if volatility of their asset doubles, they have to reduce the exposure they have indoor portfolios and that takes a long time to come back to a more normal scenario. cow volatility and i think that will impact. >> we

not surprisingly,, volatility has spiked superhigh.see the huge move up and volatility -- in volatility. the complacency is gone. one reason to think it will continue, the selling pressure, beyond the technicals of the 200 , this is theerages bank of america merrill lynch global financial risk index. 2007, superlowd before the stock market crash of 2008. something similar ahead of the pullback we saw in 2016. this suggests the stresses for the financial markets are just getting going and we could see the pullback for stocks continue and perhaps intensify. mark: which might play into our what our next guest is going to say. you've written a piece today -- this is the global equities maelstrom. words, i guess. if this is a game changer in terms of markets waking up to a beingwn of risk assets bereft of monetary stimulus and high-yield, you really would see more volatility in interest rate markets. mark: can we bring this up? this is our wonderful move index. 20% in recentd by session. it is still around september 2017 levels. nowhere nea

we keep referring to the spike in ten-year yield as a reason we're looking at a tentative market. we have the dow up 42 and the s&p up 2. i saw the 10-year going higher than 2.77 a minute ago. now 2.78 as we speak in the final hour. you need to be right here until the end of the closing day. but we are experiencing investors who also have this, they are smelling a whiff of bubble trouble, former fed chair alan greenspan warned of a bubble in stocks yesterday while bond king bill gross says there is a bubble coming in the bond market and other analysts are saying there are whole different reasons for bubbles. we're hitting a bubble trifecta and where should you be invested to avoid being splattered by popping bubbles. to the floor show, phil flynn, give us where you see the biggest bubble in the market right now? >> you know, it's not in oil. people are saying oil, it's got to be oil. but actually i think it's in the same stocks. they led the market up. they are way ahead of the marketplace, and if anything is going to hop, they're going to pop. bad news out of facebook, bad news o

that spike already did its damage.or more on the future of the short volatility trade, let's bring in joe weisenthal. luke, we just heard from an iflyst at cantor fitzgerald it's not the end of short vol trade, it's time for a hard look into these products. >> for a lot of people, this was the channel through which they were able to participate in a short vol trade for retail. it's taken away by virtue of x iv. i think we are still looking at -- right now, we haven't had a normalization in the mi vix curve. we are trying to get this normalization and volatility -- in volatility. it hasn't worked yet. vonnie: it's clear that billions of dollars have been lost on the back of this event. more shutdowns of products and firms. how will we look back on this event? >> i have to imagine that an sont like this -- we talked many months in a row about when is the volatility going to happen. then you get an incident like this which is so sharp -- it's imagine going back to the level of complacency we saw before. it's very likely t

and that spike has pushed all these kids to the u.s. it is really interesting to note that these kids are actually fleeing gang violence and they show up on long island to have to deal with the same gains they were fleeing -- gangs they were fleeing in the first place. host: we have a parent. good morning. caller: good morning, what i want to say is if our government and our politicians, who we the their salary, would listen to the people -- we do not want illegal immigrants here. no daca. they already have amnesty and it will just go on and on and on. and it is pathetic what is happening to the american people. they are being treated like third class citizens. host: marcela gaviria? iest: well, that is a view heard quite a bit in long island and i think that that is essentially part of the dilemma, that a lot of these kids are coming and taking up resources and it makes the community very anxious. that said, i think it is important to note that under international law these children are seeking asylum here. and that is an international

if that doesn't mean volatility is going to spike any time soon. okay well, it took from october until now. what do you make of what's happened >> i think vol and the level of interest rates are very correlated i think as we've been in ten years almost a very low interest rates, people are looking to alternative ways of generating their return targets and that has created a lot of carry strategies that are frankly using vix and other volatility measures to sell volatility and their delta hedging so they're extracting the difference between implied and realized, but it's created a very large exposure of short volatility and i think it's created a huge opportunity for actually owning vol in the market because everybody else is selling right now. >> there are a couple of things here was this simply a trade that reversed, there were too many people on one side of the boat, or was the volatility of the unwind accentuated because of something going wrong with the way these instruments operate? >> i don't think it's something going wrong, it's just the gr

spike the puppy was born last week. here's spike. his mom and brothers and sisters.ep. >> shepard: it's noon at the west coast. we're waiting for the press secretary to speak with reporters. this comes minutes after the president said he would love to see a government shut down. repeating, the president said he would love to see a government shut down. expect questions on that and the recent memo madness. the president agreed to release the republican memo that criticized the russia investigation. now will he do the same for the democrats and let them have their side of the story. president trump's lawyers debating whether he should meet with robert mueller. the question is there any evidence that the president did anything wrong? if not, why sit down with a special counsel? what another weird day at the markets. did you see this? look up there. look

we still don't know which one will be spike. as soon as we find out, you will, too.check out "the daily briefing" twitter and instagram. we're waiting for the white house briefing set to start at 3:00. i'm dana perino. here's shep. >> shepard: it's noon on the west coast, 3:00 in washington where president trump and congress are considering how to prevent the next mass shooting. nearly two weeks after a killer shot up a school in floor. the president warning that if congress doesn't take action, he will make at least one move himself. the white house briefing is expected to start any moment. and the "wall street journal" are discussing how the president can testify before robert mueller. and north korea sending word they're willing to talk with washington. the white house says let's see how serious the north koreans are and whether the d

we talked the vix's historic spike.e focus on the markets, we also have quite a lot more throughout the program. let's get straight to the bloomberg first alert news. here's juliette saly in singapore. juliette: the president of the minneapolis fed says he does not think a financial crisis is imminent despite the turmoil. he made the comments in an exclusive interview with bloomberg. >> if they are pricing in a lower young term yield, that could be leading to higher valuations. i don't see a financial crisis on the horizon, but we are paying very close attention to it. juliette: even as u.s. stocks plunged yesterday, today trump praised his recently text -- recently passed tax overhaul. when i signedp: the tax cuts six weeks ago, and set off a tidal wave of good news that continues to grow every single day. companies were announcing thousands and thousands of new jobs and enormous investments to their workers. robotte: the so-called -advisors struggled to deal with the market crash. glitches are a setback for a sector o