seats in the middle that people want to get to who are coming in we should have a full house for stan fisher. please make the seats available to make sure anybody who wants a seat can get one. certainly we would appreciate that. we are delighted our next panelists could join us. stanley fisher is the vice chair of the federal reserve. his agreed to a conversation with tim adams. before we are on stage we have a polling question. this is the critical question facing us other than the election, what is going to happen with the fed and the employment report this morning that was not too hot not too cold. grab your mobile devices now and we have a simple question. do you think the federal hike before the end of the year which would mean the december meeting presumably they're not going to raise interest rates before the presidential election, they won't tell us that but i can imagine that. so yes or no. a fed hike before the end of the year. >> 62.5 on -- 40 a no. i think that the wall street consensus that december is pretty likely given where wages are. you don't need to hear from you that, yo

>> we were just listening to people debate stan fisher, the markets debate stan fisher.k at one week of twos. they are definitely in the zone where they seem to be drifting lower. stan fisher didn't impact down three basis points on a two year today. many traders said he was on one hand on the other hand, in guidance, you didn't walk away any smarter and he highlighted issues where things can go wrong but didn't voice any concerns that they can do anything different. if you look at one week of tens, it is kind of thrashing here a bit as well. but here is the money charts. look at june 1st of tens, knock at the door higher. gilts not pushed through higher. year to date dollar index, today, high close to 98.25. that means we're about a penny and a of away on a closing basis of testing the all time high from the end of january at 99.60. that's the chart most common for traders to be scrutinizing. tyler, brian, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> if you missed it, tesla delaying its latest product announcement, only by a few days, but does this delay give you any

. >> federal res vice chair, stan fisher, says the economy is very close to the fed's empl and inflationarget to the economic club of new york, the central bank's numb two also warned of the dang of low intere >> low interest rates makes the econom more vulnerable to advee sho that could put it into a recession. operatg clo to the effective lower bound limits the room for centra ban to combat recess, using their conv p that is by cutting the policy in >> mr. fisher added that low rates can threaten financial stabil thoh he does not think tha threat exists right now. >>> octob as you probably know, is an historically vola month. but so far, this october is turng out to be relatively calm. that may be just what inves do mike santoli explains. >> even after some choppiness in past with, the stock market uncommonlily calm so far. the s&p 500 index has traded in a narrow range this month and is less than 3% off its record high. invests looki for a nice fourth rally should prob be wishing for more nervs trading andr bull backe in the second half of the month. pronou octob weakness is a strong

morgan, hasbro, none of this matters if we have stan fisher speaking at 12:00. is a guy you know to sell ahead. this is the two-rate hike guy. it's amazing. this is a guy who could cast a paul on anything. but that's the way it works right now. we've got the fed versus oil. if oil goes up, stan fisher doesn't matter. oil turned around this morning and futures went up. we're kind of in a market that makes no sense at all. bank of america did have a great quarter. >> jim, we'll watch in a few minutes, about four minutes, and we'll see you. >> thank you. >> okay. >>> coming up, we have this morning's biggest movers. then later today, don't miss the beginning of the anniversary week on the "halftime report." scott wapner will be joined by david teper, carl icahn and jeffrey gundlach, all starts today as it always does at noon. whether it's bringing cutting-edge wifi to 35,000 fans... or keeping a hotel's guests connected. businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪ja

stan fisher will speak on monday around noon.g to see if he repeats what he has already said. also, maybe he will weigh in on inflation. he has been more in the camp that gradual rate hikes are needed to make sure inflation does not get out of control. a lot of eyes on stan fisher after janet yellen speech. yvonne: thank you. one of the largest china focused hedge funds is reversing losses. let's ask that big question, what are we seeing her? some relief for markets in china's economy. hedge funds are continuing their rebound. we are seeing this after a year of volatility and market shock and finally some relief for china focused hedge funds. they had deeper losses than their global counterparts trailing behind global counterparts for the first time in five years having the worst year since 2011. have a look at this chart. these china focused hedge funds have obtained a rebound of more inn 5% after a slump of 8.8% january during that market route. finally some signs of life, market volatility has fallen to the lowest in two years

isew headlines, stan fisher speaking in washington and a banking conference, addressing the unemployment from this morning saying growth is not close to what we used to view as normal, saying the rise of unemployment participation rate is fine and saying investment is been discouraged uncertainty. stan fischer speaking in washington at a banking conference, the first of four fed officials speaking today. look at the market reaction, we are still sing a slightly weaker dollar. we have seen the two-year treasury yields coming down as well. now to deutsche bank, shares rising today following a report the bank is weighing various options, including raising capital in case it is needed to meet rising legal bills. we're learning the ceo is set to meet with u.s. justice department officials today, according to the frankfurt daily newspaper. ruth david covers the european banks for bloomberg. she joins us now. how much capital are we talking about and what does the amount depend on? >> can raise about 5 billion euros without getting approval. they have preapproval that could be about 5 billion.

stan fisher said it is fine, because participation is picking up and that means more people coming backo the workforce. it is more complicated than that fed it is partly true -- a man that. it is partly true. he describes this as a goldilocks report. usually when we use that to describe the report, it is like that because it is not force the fed to move, but it is also not signaling something big. joe: kind of like a traitor term. -- trader. term. it is not so good it will force the fed's hand, so let's buy stocks. it is unusual coming from a central bank official, because they do not really want to see goldilocks. guest: exactly. matt: but if you look at it from the traitor -- trader perspective, the market does not have to freak out because of a hike coming soon. and they are happy because they are not forced to raise this before an election. they do not want to appear political cut some -- political, so now they don't have to. and the economy is still growing. scarlet: right. and the jobs report is consistent with what was already told. and they do not need to change their tactics. g

fed vice chair stan fisher speaking to the institute of finance yesterday, 10:30 a.m. eastern time.hey are talking about the economy after the jobs report and talking about the global market picture and brexit as well. that's just the appetizer. coming up, continued coverage of that sharp drop in the british pound. >>> and a number of fed officials saying they would be fine with raising interest rates by the end of this year if the u.s. economic data confirms it, including the jobs report. we'll bring you a full preview of what to expect and some market insight. timetable for the fed, joined by danielle dimartino booth next. as we look at futures under a bit of pressure. the dow is pretty much flat for the week. we'rerowning in infor. where, in all of this, he stuff that matters? the stakes a so high, uur fute. how you solve this? you don't. you partr th a firm that advises gornments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to perso on what matters to you morgan stanley. . >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." if you're just waking up, an update on hurricane matthew.

. >> reporter: stan fisher in a speech to the economic club of new york warns of the dangers of low interest rates saying they could lead to great financial instability and longer deeper recessions. >> low interest rates make the economy more vulnerable to adverse shocks that could put it into a recession. operating close to the effective low bound limits the room for central banks combat recession using their conventional policy tool. that is by cutting the policy interest rate. >> fisher said the evidence so far doesn't show threatened height of instability but his comments are hawkish after janet yellen spoke on friday about running a high pressure economy with lower one employment rates. fisher pointed out the fed was near or at its inflation and unemployment goal. he added many reasons for low interest rates and weak growth were not in the fed's control. they include productivity and labor force growth running below what they used to be, an ageing population, weak investment and weak foreign growth. he suggested rates are lower by three percentage points from the combination of those fa

tom: this is why stan fisher's speech today is so important. todaynder what he will do .peaking to someone from blackrock who said what he interprets of janet yellen is more on the table but the path may be diminished or small in 2017. tom: i think we need evidence. what is the evidence that you will get a race backtrack go >> -- race back? >> i think you are starting to see steady job growth, early signs of inflation. i think the position that we did not do september, but should werything stay status quo, are able to reduce the ultra accommodative. what she is really worried about is that the market worries. this is the beginning of said rate hikes. what she is trying to prevent is a recession. she says, we will hike in december, but don't panic, inflation can move fast too. francine: what is your take on cost?d rate we talked about it at the beauty of the show. are the markets oversensitive? >> i think they are. i think any rate rises will be very gradual and much slower than previous cycles. for me, that is enough. talking 25it, we are basis points or 50 basis points o

. >> thank you very much for updating us on the important comments from stan fisher. we're following hurricane matthew. how cities in its path are preparing. we check in with the mayor of charleston, south carolina, next. >>> south carolina governor nicki haley urge residents to get out now. she's speaking this hour, and the governor also enlisted one company to help. >> just know that if you go to expedia or air bnb, they have opened up a lot of other rooms there in columbia and greeneville. please go to expedia or air bnb, and you can still find additional shelter resources. >> joining us on the phone with more is the mayor of charleston, south carolina, john techlenburg. good of you to join us. as we watch this storm barrel up the east coast, what kind of things are you expecting right now from -- which in charleston? >> thank you for having me on today. we're expecting some serious flooding. we experienced serious flooding a year ago, but we have a triple threat of storm surge, high tide, and over a foot of rain, so that's one of our expectations and what we're ge

i had stan fisher here this morning, given the numbers out this morning it looks like a goldilocks economy, things look good. i don't know what the fed will do in december or january he didn't say. how do you see the u.s. economy and we'll go the global economy after that. you see loan demand. how do you view the u.s. economy. >> sure. if you look at where we are, go back and think about the u.s. economy coming out of the crisis, the first thing we have to solve was consumer confidence. you think of the u.s. economy, u.s. economy is primarily about two-thirds driven by the consumer. two things we had to address quickly is one we had to get -- >> please silence your phone. >> the second was jobs. we had unemployment around 10% and very clearly swift action in particular around the various types of qe in the u.s. did put floor into housing, got that obviously back and today we're at or above in most markets pre-crisis levels and we got unemployment that's going to bounce they 4.9 and 5% and while we saw not an off the wall charts number bath pretty good number and wage growth and sectors wit

and we got stan fisher speaking at 12:00. u know, stan "sell them" fisher, that's what they're calling him now. >> we got decent numbers certainly from jpm and then wells and citi, but the stocks didn't really after a strong beginning they did not follow through. >> oh, it was horrible. j.p. morgan a downgrade today on valuation. valuation. these stocks are back to where they were maybe in december. and i've got to tell you, citi is substantial discount and they had a great quarter. >> i don't get it. everybody's had a reasonably good quarter if they've been big enough in the markets. let's put wells separately. wells a separate issue. and the rate hikes -- rates may go up, which is going to help net interest margin. what happened? >> i don't know. i mean, i did a lot of work on citi both before and after the quarter just thinking what did i miss, what did i miss, what did i miss. it was a fine quarter. big discount to book, buying back a lot of stock. but i think this cohort is a jinx cohort. i think every time i get excited

stan fisher speaking today. you made some comments about how you saw the yellen speech on friday.ed in your mind today? what are they going to do between now and the end of the year if anything? >> well, they certainly want to raise rates in december. at least a majority of fed members want to raise rates in december. and, you know, there is about two-thirds chance when you look at the shape of the yield curve that you can capture using the wirp function that gives the probability of two-thirds now. but janet yellen last week on friday i thought really gave some important information, kind of moving the goal post, on the unemployment rate, kind of what i saw happening when she talked about running a high pressure economy. there was a paper written by the brookings institute back in 1973 that used the phrase high pressure economy and they talked about unemployment rate of 4% in reference to high pressure economy. so seems to me that janet yellen doesn't want to raise rates, at least not very much, but it does seem to be, like, they want to raise rates in december and the bond marke

we also heard from stan fisher, vice chair of the federal reserve, who said there is no risk of the fed falling behind the curve on inflation, as it decided not to raise interest rates last week, but he didn't give us any sense of when they will move. haidi: all right. thank you so much. you can hear more on that exclusive interview with the boj governor, haruhiko kuroda, later this hour at half past 7:00 hong kong time. sydney,re tuning in at that's half past 10:00. breaking news -- noble group is saying they will divest into america's energy solutions for $1.05 billion. they fell off the american energy unit and we are expecting that transaction to close in december. million,ases $275 coming after a torrid couple of years, where share prices are still down 50% over the past year amid accusations over its accounts. now.s what we are getting let's get the first word news from rosalind chin. the most iconic cattle company in australia. pay $277expecting to million usd, although the deal is still required regulatory approval. is expected to cover 1.3% of their total land. china services e

everyone was kind of dissecting stan fisher's comments i could provide more insight.they necessarily got anything. some struggle for early direction even as financials came in better than expected. joe: ending down lower. we were just talking about inflation. a lot of hype this time for that cpi report coming out tomorrow morning. scarlet: speaking of earnings we got more earnings after the close most recently from united continental. the airline reported adjusted earnings per share for $3.11 when analysts have been looking for 306. $9.91 billion. down 5.8%. -- the airline had seen a doubt anywhere from 5.5% to 6%. pretty much in line with what was expected. you don't see that much of a move in the stock price. matt: the stock basically unchanged. people expect present to continue following it that is why they will be reducing capacity. .he big story is netflix increasing capacity. probably as much as they can. up as much as 20%. adding a fifth of its value. the company beating estimates for subscriber growth. .ucas shaw joins us now coincidently here in new york. .re

this is heard from vice chair stan fisher and others.ow down about 52 points. >> let's stand by for fireworks. netflix and ibm minutes away from reporting earnings. the number one thing to watch for. >> and then don't miss an sclus ussive interview with ibm's chief financial officer. hey listen, when you tell our friends about your job, maybe let's play up the digital part. but it's a manufacturing job. yeah, well ge is doing a lot of cool things digitally to help machines communicate, might want to at least mention that. i'm building world-changing machines. with my two hands. does that threaten you? no! don't be silly. i'm just, uh, going to go to chop some wood. with that? yeah we don't have an ax. or a fireplace. good to be prepared. could you cut the bread? >>> hold on tayour horses. what should investors be watching for? julia boorstin has an eye on netflix results while josh lipton is following ibm. what are key metrics here? >> the number one thing to watch is netflix is subscriber growth which fell short last quarter as higher p

ladies and gentlemen, stan fisher.adies and gentlemen, please welcome tim adams, president and chief operating officer at the institute of finance. >> thank you. i hope you enjoy the conversation with the vice chairman. he's an old friend of mine and it's good to take conversations bring them on the stage. the two previous panels we had this morning were quite good. it's a really exciting and interesting people that i get the deal with on a regular basis i'm going to bring douglas flynt out. i will bring him out in 15 minutes or so. i wanted to use the prerogative they have offered with some personal reflections in a time in which there is such great uncertainty and turmoil. first i want talk about the challenges on the financial landscape. much of this, was discussed earlier today, but i will replicate what i said earlier. growth is a concern, central bank, bank, no matter where you go around the world, central banks are running pretty close to their limit as far as what they can do and there is diminishing concerns w

i did see stan fisher and it looks like a goldilocks economy. things are pretty good. i don't know what the fed's point to do in december or january. he didn't say, but how do you see the u.s. economy, do you see the front line, do you see the order books in loan demand, how do you view the u.s. economy? >> if you look at where we are and you go back and think about the u.s. economy coming out of the crisis, the first thing we had to solve was consumer confidence. when you think of the u.s. economy, it is primarily about two thirds driven i the consumer. two things we had to address quickly, one is we had to get housing going in the right direction. >> the second was jobs. we had unemployment somewhere around 10% and swift action around the various type in the u.s., we got that back so they were at or above in most markets precrisis levels and we got unemployment bouncing between 4.9 and 5% and we saw while not an off the charts job number, pretty good job number. we looked at the sectors within the job growth and it's fairly robust. we have a consumer that's largely r

fed vice chair stan fisher said the report was pretty close to a goldie locks scenario.in a cnbc etta mester says she thinks it is about as good as it is going to get. >> that's a good number. income is going up. you have solid, you know, hours work. so, again, i think this is very consistent with what we expected to see. certainly with my forecast. >> mester who dissented was plain in saying she wants to hike again, but the futures market sees a less than 10% chance of that happening and almost, by the way, up higher now, a 60% chance for that december hike. you're shaking your head like you've seen the market trade that way. >> just a couple of weeks ago was 20 something percent for december. markets almost -- >> the data is behaving. you got a running cnbc rapid update. third quarter rebound. jobs -- get used to 150. the entire viewership by the lapel and say it is not 200. 150 is a very good run rate for an economy where the working age population is growing by just 75. >> i love having marcus here. how many people work at any camping world store on average? >> 50 to

that drift lower wasn't changed by anything perceived as hawkish by vice chair stan fisher.t the ten-year since june, maybe yields are down a little bit today, they were down a little bit yesterday, they're coming back up to that 180. stubborn long-end yields, you can see it on tens minus twos. getting very close to 100 as you see on this june 1st chart. then there's the currency dynamic of this. if you look at a chart since the beginning of march of the euro versus dollar, look at some of those key bottoms. a bottom in july of 109.77. a bottom around mid-october, not many trading sessions to go, 109.72. now let's go backwards. notice the intraday lows from sunday night were below both those levels. we didn't get the close. but if we do get the close, that's technically significant. give it a little sludge there, call it 109.50. if we look at the pound versus dollar, there's definitely some stabilization going on even though it is only a month to date chart. many are watching because of the historic drop of how that's translating to a somewhat historic change in price action

we are going to talk about stan fisher's exceptionally important speech yesterday at the economic club about low rates. the white line is core inflation, the yellow line is subdued inflation. let me bring that up right now. the idea of subdued inflation, will this rise up? this is where we are in the service sector, here is where we are in the goods inflation. here is the two inflation levels right now and the whole debate is simply, do we want to get up longer and get out here? do we want to see this move up as well? we will have to see what happens. francine: we also have to see what happens with inflation. i want to show you inflation data and this is the white line, u.k. inflation, highest in almost those go years. we heard from governor carney that he will look through it but inflation in white against input. this is a concern for a lot of these retailers that you are importing inflation because of the weaker pound and you may .eel poorer to your consumer your goods that you are exporting are also more expensive. it is an uneasy economic filter for the u.k. economy. inflation, we

and, guys, now almost a 60% chance for december, more on the fed this morning, fed vice chair stan fisher's speaking in washington at 10:30 today. we'll be monitoring that, sarah. >> steve, thank you. stay with us if you would. we have to talk a lot more about this jobs report, how it impacts the markets. let's bring in david kelly chief market strategist at j.p. morgan funds. monthly jobs report fixture, david, do you agree with that assessment that this report while somewhat disappointing does not take december off the table? >> yeah, i do. and i agree very much with steve's assessment. actually, i don't think it's a disappointing report. as he said the labor force has gone up by 3 million people over the last year. the labor force participation rate has gone up by 0.5%. i don't normally say this but credit to janet yellen -- >> wow, stop the presses, david. >> well, the fed -- she is argued that the labor force participation would pick up as people got used to a tight labor market. and that does seem to be happening. so that's giving them more room to breathe. i still think this econom

i had stan fisher here this morning, given the numbers out this morning it looks like a goldilocks economy, things look good. i don't know what the fed will do in december or january he didn't say. how do you see the u.s. economy and we'll go the global economy after that. you see loan demand. how do you view