i am here with stanley fischer, vice chairman of the federal reserve.gain. >> nice to see you. thank you. >> so here at the imf world bank meetings the economy is described as uneven and moderate. the global recovery. is that how you see it? >> yeah. it's very uneven. it's growing. but it's not growing spectacularly. >> united states is the bright spot or at least was the bright spot. current economic data isn't showing all of that optimism. is it temporary? do you expect a rebound here? >> there is a rebound under way already. see at what speed it proceeds. the first quarter was poor. that seems to be a new seasonal patent. it's been that way for about four of the last five years. >> because the winters have been so cold. >> yeah. >> does that affect the trajectory of what the fed is going to do or not do this year? >> well it depends how quickly we come out if you look at last year, we had negative growth in the first quarter. then spectacular growth which made up for that. we don't know what's going to happen in the second quarter here yet. >> but th

we heard from stanley fischer earlier.nvestors the central bank wants to raise interest rates. he expects inflation to pick up this year. nothing new in the speech, but fed speak coming out, we will not raise yet, we are data dependent. >> will meet to raise, we will raise -- when we do raise, we will raise by a couple of moves. what the doves are getting away with, we think the economy is going to do just fine around midyear. that gives them the easy clearance rather than pick a fight with the hawks. they can say, it did not meet our expectations so we wait a little bit longer. alix: schlumberger coming out with its quarter. julie: down 9% -- down 19% quarter over quarter. it was driven by the decline in north american land activity. which you might expect. the company's revenue coming in below analyst estimates at $10.25 billion. earnings per share, however beating $1.06. $.91 was the prediction. this is something we have seen from some of these various oil services providers because of the pullback in oil prices because

tom: stanley fischer's speech ultra extension. what does he mean?they tighten 25 basis points, they go from altra to extremely. trying to lay the groundwork. olivia: it is still an extraordinary environment. to what extent does the strength of the dollar delay the rate hike or make the slope or trajectory of the rate increases? ed: it slows it down. as i go through any business cycle, one of the things that happens as a marker is the fed titans. -- fed tightens. when the fed tightens, that sets the clock. typically the recession starts five years later. olivia: a tightening cycle is not negative for equities. tom: this is the heart of an ed hyman report. this is the famous ed hyman black market with arrow. people pay thousands just to have this. do you do that still? ed: electronic. tom: it is all electronic. the truth is out. olivia: oil is bottomed? why? ed: first, it collapsed. second, the rig count collapsed. oil has been unchanged for over two months. that is the trifecta. tom: what did analysts get wrong as they look for $25 a barrel? ed: oil

stanley fischer is saying they can't keep interest rates at a record low forever. atlanta fed president said he wants to see falling unemployment and rising inflation prior to the first rate increase. the latest bloomberg survey shows a 71% participating economists expect the fed to raise rates in september, up from 32% in last month's survey. those calling for a june move shrunk to 12%. data to watch today is the consumer prices, which rose 1.7% in march from the year earlier. if you include food and energy consumer prices year-over-year are expected to come in at 0%, a long way from a 2% inflation . caroline: let's check in on some other top stories. a new constitution designed to limit single party -- the charter proposes a new voting system and hopes to stop the over influence of certain groups and could pave the way for new elections in the country and the end of military rule which has been in place since the coup. etsy surged 88% in its trading debut. the company which makes money by charging artisans commissions to sell their goods is the biggest success st

i think we need to listen to stanley fischer. he is the vice chairman of the fed.her weight. he says things are going to pick up. that is one of the voices we should really pay attention to. matt: i have always thought this game of fed watching can be fun. it can also be kind of lame because it goes back-and-forth it is a data-dependent thing. i really listen when they say that. watch the data. what would you do? having said that, you have the most dovish people in the world, and the most dovish organization ever, and all they want to do is promote stock market growth with their zero interest rate policy and did not care about inflating bubbles. they don't. that is the next guys problem. betty: if you look at the data does not seem like a june rate hike is on the table. matt: why, should we be a zero? does it make sense to be at zero? the direction should not be up but it has to be somewhere above zero. zero really question of people get in trouble at zero interest rates. carol: they want to do something, but they await about going to early and messing up all we ha

it is going to happen for sure, but we can tell from the recent yellen speeches and those of stanley fischerthey are looking at the balance sheet. the idea that you have a conventional rate hike cycle where the curve flattens doesn't make sense to me. jonathan: i want to bring it to the u.k. very quickly. we've gone from sovereigns to credit. we've got that lower interest rate. what does it mean for yields? what does it mean for the gilt market? we've got this big political headwind. steven: small matter of an election coming. historical in analysis, for what its worth, history says that it doesn't matter too much for the gilt market. that's probably because governments are constrained. history is no guide to the future. maybe it does matter. anyway, it is very complicated. i know you've done work on this on bloomberg. there's a number of permutations. that makes it quite confusing. it is probably bad news for sterling, because that is where the risk premium is most prevalent. on guilts, it is probably not so serious. the same for equities, actually. the companies on the ftse are all interna

i did ask fed vice chairman stanley fischer if he still thinks we will see a rate hike this year.en to what he said. >> where most people think it will happen this year but you don't want to get more definite than that. it depends on how the economy develops. we'll try and do it at the best possible time and we would like to see the economy beginning to grow again. and grow at a decent rate. >> let's bring in jennifer veil and savita at bank of america merrill lynch. if you add up stan fischer's comments to me yesterday, i would say the leaning was that he is itching toward an interest rate increase. bushing off what he called poor data in the first quarter and looking forward to better inflation numbers and better numbers on the economy and higher interest rates. do you think that is spooking the markets here? >> i'm not sure what is spooking the markets today. earnings have been off to a decent start. the fed call is tough to make. we think september. with some of the data coming in softer, there are risks to the fed actually hiking this year or pushing that out a little further

it is a committee -- >> but it's stanley fischer. they will do one this year. i think part is an exercise to see what happens with the market. it'll not be material to the economy. >> that's true too. >> it's not going to be material, i agree josh, they are going to do a rate hike before the end of the year. think about the rest of the world, every other global central bank, except for maybe the bank of england that is possibly faced with the u.s. situation. everyone else is in an easing cycle. that's treasury yields, german boom versus the u.s. treasury. >> it makes it look good right in the united states. exactly. >>> coming up, shake ups in asia and across global markets today. we're going to go around the world in search of the best placed globally beyond the borders of the united states to put your money. >>> battle for your home is on, apple and google are at forefront. there are smaller companies hot on their heels. we'll dig into that. >>> target tried a special offering of lilly-brand items this weekend. as piper jeffrey noted, it was crazy. does this

. >> boy wasn't that a great interview with stanley fischer that sarah did? is talking about it. i want to dig down a little deeper into it. a couple of things that mr. fischer said -- that i think deserves some discussion. and most them do center around europe. i thought the notion of where the euro is now, not a direct impact based on or not directly caused by fx intervention. i think we're mincing words here. look at the chart while i'm talking about the euro. >> one second, rick, forgive me. we do have ritru financial, which bob pasani open for trade. it looks like it's at 23, 24% gain, up about 4.50. bob brought us the ceo and the executive chairman a little while ago. rick, back to you. >> absolutely. virtu, electronic trading, big. as you look at the euro, it was at 1.25, as recently as december. it's currently at 1.07. it spent a lot of time at 1.05. you could call it intervention, could you call it policy. whatever it is, reconcile the breadth of that move against another dynamic that mr. fischer hit on, and that is that europe is looking better. it

we heard stanley fischer talking about that. alan krueger from princeton university.iumphs is the u6 below 11% the all in unemployment rate, 10.9%. we have not seen that since the late summer of 2008. within a difficult report there are structural victories. alan: i don't think they are big victories. if you look at the household survey job growth this week, labor force participation felt. -- fell. the good news is wage growth, .3% over the month. maybe there is a pick up and wage growth. on the other hand there suggests there has been a slowing, as many other indicators have been suggesting. one report does not make a trend. i think the fed will look at what else comes in. we're probably due for a week report with 12 months over 200,000. these numbers tend to be noisy and get revised. unemployment insurance claims continue to suggest the job market is recovering. work hours ticked down in this report.. hard to put a positive spin. tom: the two year yield .49%> yield has come in. olivia: 5 basis points. looking at what went wrong, and ailing manufacturing sector. week

stanley fischer highlighting that rates will go up sometime this year. it was quite vague. it highlights a range of views. it is the start of the cycle. i think later this week we will see more indication as to how the fed views it is evolving. chances are more bets on early rate hikes will be discouraged. presumably, the dollar might not like it. it feels like a lot of negatives already. caroline: the dollar index up a percent. we are seeing a little bit of a rebounding after a couple of days. ing group already saying buy into this weakness. would you agree? valentin: it depends. it feels like the dollar is still the largest one out there. you would potentially be doing that fairly cautiously. if anything the dollar because of the rda at the moment. it will be unwound. i think the safest trade would be selling fx volatility. if anything, that uncertainty was introduced some time ago. the dollar is no longer a one bet. that could help fx volatility subsides a some more. going into the april meeting, and all the way to the june meeting -- not much is expected to happen in te

not paying any attention to them right now because the people that matter are janet yellen and stanley fischerey have said they are going to be cautious and watch the data. alix: he did make the point though that the financial markets indicate that it is somewhat different than what the fed is projecting. does that mean the markets of not come up to meet the fed? michael: data will tell us. at the atlanta fed retreat, stan fisher gave a speech and that he did q and a and he used to words , less often to describe making the changes. it made the case for gradualism because he doesn't want, and none of them want, to repeat a 1937 error. and they don't want to reverse themselves, which sweden has now been reversed. they don't want to do that. that is the funny thing in the markets these days. you hear a lot of people talking about this idea that the fed might go too far, too fast and that would cause problems. but you don't hear yellen, or fisher, or dudley or any of them talking about it. they say they're going to be patient. there is a disconnect between these two sides. the markets seem to be p

eastern with fed vice president stanley fischer and speaks with the eu competition commissioner a dayharges against google. lots to look forward to. all of the problems of the world could be settled easily if men were only willing to think. all of the problems of the world all of the inefficiencies could be settled easily all of the opportunities could be realized if we were only willing to see patterns in data we could never see before. to design a machine that thinks like we do. track epidemics. predict breakdowns before they occur. to become smarter every day. if men women machines were only willing to think. >>> etse prices at $16 a share. the top end of the expected raise. it ranged $267 million valuing them at 1.8 billion. unlike other ipos they're setting aside about 5% of shares for individual investors including sellers on the site. chad dikerson will be on squawk on the street at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. >> virtu financial pricing it's shares at $19. the upper end of the range. that values them at $2.6 billion. virtu planned to go public but pulled the ipo amid the fire stor

economist, i only play one on television, but don't you sense -- i mean i go back to the speech that stanley fischer, made a couple weeks ago. you hear from bill dudley today. they're all saying the same thing, you know, that there's a sense they can't wait to begin this process. they're anxious to start. don't you think they'll begin maybe some people think june. bill dudley said today it's on the table. maybe september. just throw one canary in the coal mine and see what happens when they raise the rates that first time. >> well remember the fed has been anxious to raise rates for the past five years. in fact they've been telling us that next year is going to be the time line for rate increases. again, since 2009. so when we think out to 2016 with he have to remember we've been sitting here anticipating liftoff for the past five years. and just going back to the previous point, i think the fed certainly is giving some push barq from the more hawkish members but we have to remember that the voting committee is decisively dovish with only a single hawk sitting with a vote currently in this committee

i still think that speech by stanley fischer, i think that was very telling.ching to start the process of normalization. he made that very clear. >> and i'm in that camp too. >> i know they say they're data dependent. they have in the back of their minds that one rate increase -- >> a quarter point might be the beginning. >> whether it begins to june september, remains to be seen. >> i've been hounding away on the earnings recession. we're now negative for the first and second quarter. revenues are negative and even the third quarter the revenue growth is negative. we have to get some kind of top line growth, and now it's not only modestly positive it's slipping into negative territory. that suggesting choppy sizedeways trading. >> up 120 points loosing some of that at the close. what will tomorrow bring? we'll talk about that coming up. a great panel coming up including best-selling author walter isaacson and the great arianna huffington g tonington herself on the second hour of "the closing bell." i'll see you tomorrow, kel. >>> thank you, billing. welcome t