we are going to link stanley fischer into the world of m&a.ill join us from citigroup and we will look at the new internal rate of return. right now, we look at markets dollar, stronger looking forward to jonathan golub and peter tague on "brilliant surveillance." ♪ ♪ this is "brilliant surveillance." straight to the bloomberg business flash with vonnie. benie: digital banking will relied morning via. shut itssh bank will 50 branches in india. bank is investigating whether employees made millions on properly trading. according to a person familiar with the matter, six employees are involved and involve credit indexes. shares of you who are down 3% in the premarket. yahoo!'s core business might not bring in as much from the option as expected. verizon and other bidders are expected to offer $2 billion to $3 billion. the next round of bids are due the first week of june. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. shelling andeen fisher's equation with jonathan showing we have been stanley fisher's equation with jonathan golub. there are the wo

stanley fischer has had a big influence behind the scenes. i think he has been arguing for normalization. think that he is starting to sway the rest of the members of the fed that it is time to get on with this normalization. it should be at least zero in real terms. atyou look at core inflation one and a half it should be heading up to one and a half in the not too distant future. i think he has been having an influence on the fed thinking about normalizing if you get past this. scarlet: you started by telling us about the national activity index moving in the right direction. what about the job data? april is not a great month when it comes to job growth. why isn't that confirming the robust conditions? guest: we are getting the disconnect a bit. we had very good jobs growth. we didn't get the gdp growth. with the unemployment where it is, estimate suggesting we only need somewhere between 100 and 150 new jobs a month to take up the labor force, we could see a slowdown in jobs growth below 200,000 without the fed being too upset. one of the

half ofm through stanley fischer's speech at columbia university last week. forward guidance. you wonder what the forward future is for guidance. sri-kumar will join us on radio in a bit. coming up later on bloomberg radio, david haro of harris associates. david haro on investment in japan, on the politics of wisconsin. good morning. ♪ tom: how about a forex report on monday. a little bit of a move on the market with a weaker euro over the last two hours. below that, euro swisse showing. renminbi a big deal, grinding ever weaker, the chinese yuan. francine: coming up shortly, it is "bloomberg ." jonathan ferro, what is on the show today? would suggest this is exactly how tom keene would run a company. one month as a chief, already trying to take over, the biggest german takeover in history. the headline is that it is an all-cash deal. the market is still open to allow them to do that. story two is project fair volume two on brexit there. dollar-yen and a divided g7. francine: thank you so much, jonathan ferro. i hope we do not ever find out how tom would

is that we have not heard from janet yellen since the end of march and we have not heard from stanley fischer. i think you are waiting to see what the heavy hitters are saying. at dudley's remarks, he qualified them in my mind by saying that he expects gdp to pick up to 2%. he thinkshappens, labor markets will tighten and wages will begin to go up. that is when the fed can start hiking. he do not exactly sound like he was laying out a concrete timetable for hikes. even though he did keep two hikes it was rather tentative. scarlet: all data is not created equally. we talked about aggregate hours worked as a bright spot in the jobs report, but unless we get confirmation from other parts of the economy, it seems like the fed is willing to let the labor market kind of improved gradually without doing too much about it. steven: i think that has been one of the ships and the said. even though earlier they focused on the labor market data and the improvement in the tightening of labor markets, 160,000 is by everyone's estimate above potential for labor for jobs to be created. i think a number of sai

to whatif we listen stanley fischer said a while ago, he said a 15% rally is about 100 basis point of take much of a the fed'se to rethink appropriate pace of timing. they look at what is happening on the cross rates and will make a judgment of what is happening in terms of capital flows in and out of china, what has happened with the cycle of china. the fed, i would imagine, is not very distant. there is a heightened sense, even now talking about a june, july hike, which is what they want to do. every point of conversation they come back to talking about the dollar being weak or than it was before. if that changes, it changes the reaction of the said again. that it: do you think is more likely now that the chinese will have to devalue the yuan if we look at a diversion -- added the verging market policy if the fed raises rates in june or july? daragh: i do not think it makes sense for them to do it. i do not think they want to do it. they recognize everyone else in the region would follow lockstep, so what would be the point? they would lose a lot of political capital for modest econ

out in due it work time as opposed to talk like stanley fischer, four tightening's in the works, we willd a less a volatile market. our third story, the u.k. treasury warned of a recession. that is should britain leave the european union. and gdp couldlost decrease by 3.6% and what could be a year-long recession. not sure on what your thoughts are on break as it -- on brexit. >> i think the markets have moved beyond brexit. result, not a significant amount of meaningful slowdown in the u.k. or a meaningful impact on the markets. t is a good story. if you are a politician, it scares you. matter, things have moved on. month looked out one implied volatility. it captures the referendum today. higher.it pop some people are concerned. they want the downside protection. has the risk really receded? >> the probability is not zero, but it is lower than what it used to be. that is what i mean that they had markets that moved on already. it would help trade, but it will weekend when other things are happening. trade is only one component of the u.s. economy. consumption, things like that, things w

i will be interviewing geoffrey lacher tomorrow on bloomberg radio and then we hear from stanley fischernd bill dudley. a lot more for traders to incorporate. we could see a big change in the outlook this week. david: thanks very much to mike mckee. jonathan: with the big guys coming up, over to japan now where the economy. a recession. we want to get the details. 2015 was ugly. it looks ugly of the first quarter. put it all together for me. >> good morning. japan escape recession, but if you look, there is plenty to be cautious about. japanese are sitting on a lot of cash, there is a real drive on the economy to drag on confidence. it is important in the context of the big policy debate and raising sales tax. spending, government is across the lines so today's numbers are preliminary. when you consider the soft backdrop to the economy, is eager the headline but plenty for the government to worry about. jonathan: with a good headline, maybe that is a problem because the fx market has stabilized as well. what is going to be the message from the japanese authorities and their counterparts.

three. 60%.ightening looks like >> dudley is widely followed because he is part of the core with stanley fischernd janet yellen. he sets the tone of what goes on. you can call him the guy goes around the asset store changing the prices. jon: expectations have been reset. market --und the 28% 28 percent mark going into june. what do they want to see the number at? michael: there are a lot of traders who do not want the fed to move. they also think the fed has cried wolf too many times. if the data starts moving in the direction dudley is talking about, watch those numbers. we will get close to 50%, 70%. janet yellen is talking june 6. fighting back against politics around the federal reserve. does that surprise you? >> he has been an outspoken voice saying the fed should not be dragged into the political sphere. jon: michael mckee, great to have you with us. we will turn to goldman sachs holding their annual meeting today. i next team leader michael moore is turning us from london live with a preview. what is your reporting telling us? michael: we have a couple of items on the docket addressing l

we have heard from bullard, from stanley fischer, from williams in san francisco, and they all seem to get it. they all seem to know that at some point they should be raising interest rates in order to preserve some semblance of profitability for savers and insurance companies and the like. hikes, seeing one to two one certainly, maybe two. the fed has learned it has a window. financial markets, relatively calm. the dollar has depreciated. remember, when the fed looks at whether to hike a market, it looks at the famous equation that bernanke set out in 2010, about benefits, costs, and risks. michael: that is the same message that new york fed president bill dudley has given in an interview in "the new york times" this morning. will tell youan the same thing bill dudley does. if we continue along the same path, do not write off june. is the fed trying to keep their options open, or do they really think they may hike in june? michael: they want to raise rates. they feel the mandate on employment, and now they are starting to see some inflation out there. 160,000ages rise, and jobs is eno

away from your interview, there are important fed speeches like stanley fischer.ifics about current policy but he talked about the equilibrium interest rates falling to low levels. away from the academics, does that tell you the rate hikes they are pursuing, they will not get as high as they may have otherwise done several years ago? michael: it's kind of what the fed has been saying all along that they can go on a shallow path toward a terminal rate because the rate at which inflation would start to accelerate or the economy would start to contract is the neutral rate and that's much lower than it has been in the past partly because the economy is growing more slowly than it has in the past. he is suggesting that that's the case and his research and michael whitford supports that view. other fed officials have said this and it suggests that even if they raise rates june 15, the markets should not to worry about how high they will go. david: thanks very much. bayer is looking at monsanto in a quest to become the world's largest supplier of harm chemicals. the comp

stanley fischer and bill dudley will be speaking today also. and walmart and dick's sporting goods report before the opening bell and after the close applied materials and the gap. >>> futures are negative this morning. dow down about 81. s&p down close to 10. the nasdaq down close to 20. right now the dow even before these numbers this morning after yesterday's close, the dow was down for the week to date which would make this on pace for the fourth negative week in a row for the first time since its october 2014. nasdaq closed up about 23 points o. outperformed the dow yesterday. the big question is what is the fed going to do come june. you can see there are red arrows in europe as well. the dax down 1.4%. the cac off 1%. the ftsi down 1.4% as well. asia oent you saw the nikkei ended flat. markets and hang seng and shanghai composite were slightly weaker. oil prices again saw quite a bit of volatility as well. the wti at one point hit a high of $48.95. highest since october 2015. and then ended down about a quarter of a percentage point to $

>> you've got that right and one of the most hawkish members, stanley fischer,s vice chair of the fed expected to say today, he's talking right now, news breaking moments ago, he's indicating there could be a rate hike. earlier in the year he predicted three or four rate hikes, he predicted in january. now 56% chance rate hike at decision in july, one in three chance in june. and the fed chair president. here is the issue, he's dovish, and set off the hawkish comments from fisher. stuart: i'm totally lost. one says one thing and another says another thing liz: and they all act like they have-- >> look, you've been down on the federal reserve and their performance for a long, long time. what do you make of this mess? >> it might be my christmas wish this year, i want to be in the room with all of them for one hour by myself. that's all i want. [laughter] they don't understand. in the face of the fact the philly fed came out contraction, that's horrible. jobless claims again, every single time they're out on the tour there's bad news that is slapping them in the face and saying they're