coming up in moments, stanley fischer.nd washington, this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance." i am francine keene in london, tom washington, d.c. ahead of the stanley fischer interview. tom: we need to digress to politics, which means speaking to martin shanker. counts and tonight there is a critical vote for senator mccain. bring us up to date on his battle in arizona. martin: he had a tough fight but the polling shows it looks like he is going to come through. we have a primary in florida where marco rubio is running and he's is showing he is pretty far ahead. trunk campaign monitor these -- trump campaign monitor these votes? does he address arizona with his speech on immigration? martin: in a normal political cycle you would guess he does that but this is not normal, and he does not seem to be driven by that. it is interesting he is going to try to redefine himself in terms of immigration tomorrow and the world will be watching. francine: what do we know about what he will say on immigration? th

will and stanley fischer be with us on surveillance.his is bloomberg. ♪ manus: a shot there of tokyo's imperial palace. dollar-yen is on a losing streak. new addition of -- edition of daybreak. this is thin against gold. -- finnegans gold. what is this about? this is all about ireland and they gave apple. and what it could potentially cost apple. we are waiting to hear if aid and ad illegal favorable tax arrangement. betweenead everything $100 million. worst-case scenario, if the irish are found guilty of doing a favorable tax deal and helping apple, it could cost apple $19 billion. and 2007. anna: who would be more angry about this, the irish government, apple, or the u.s. treasury? the next story. prime minister rajoy he will ask the spanish parliament to back him for a second term as he's weeks two and an eight month political deadlock. pp has already done a deal with ciudadanos. that does not take them far enough. they need a few more votes to take them over the 176 level. manus: it is touch and go. he has the liberals from ciudadan

will it be stemless -- will it be stanley fischer?an interesting conversation yesterday. down by .8% or so, but all of those lead to lg area. a formal meet -- leads to algeria. a formal meeting next month. will he get any meaningful free deal? manus: we've got a little bit of gold priced in. this would be the first august +++ drop. this is the bond market. you're looking at two year government bonds having a tough time. u.s. treasury market, 10 year government bonds in the u.s., 1.57. this is the worst month for treasuries since june of last year. 1.57. that is the worst month since june of last year. the bottom line is this, stanley fischer and the rest setting themselves up for a credibility gap if they do not raise rates by 25 basis points. anna: let's get to bloomberg first word news with rosalind chin. rosalind: -- -- the investment bank was the winner of elected real estate sales transactions fell apart amid disagreements. goldman sachs will proceed with the process of electing u.k. assets worth around four to 57 million -- arou

stanley fischer speaking with bloomberg television earlier. rld is fischer: the becoming increasingly interconnected, particularly the capital markets of the world. but we do affects many other countries. i was always so. it is also true that what they do affects us. we are dealing with interconnectedness, and we are probably the most important of the central banks. caroline: fascinating discussion. joining us now is torsten slok, deutsche bank's chief international economist and director. really focusing on the interconnectedness of central banks. are they the central mexico the world at how much will a rate hike heard the emerging markets and prevent them from moving -- are they the central banks of the world, and how much will a rate hike hurt the emerging markets and prevent them from moving? mr. slok: we are getting closer to full employment, which is a key phrase that will move eventually to more inflation. but he says rates are not moving up because of negative interest rates, which he also discussed. so unattractive that a lot of money

stanley fischer is the fed vice chair., tom keene will be joining me from new york to kickoff the conversation with an exclusive interview with the rbs chairman. we will also be talking about negative rates. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: a hike in 2016. stanley fischer says the central bank is close to meeting its targets. investors look for more clues at jackson hole this week. india's central bank names its new governor, a quiet commentator with a hawkish view. can you pick up where rajan left off? rbs as negative interest rates -- sir howard davies. this is bloomberg's "surveillance." tom, we have a lot of market is. look at dollar, stanley fischer the only game in town today. then we have to look at what

stanley fischer went there.e said this is supportive of a september potential hike, meaning the september meeting his life. to how oneen as economist interpreted janet yellen's comments. >> she expressed that case has gotten stronger for a rate increase. that was the view of janet yellen-stanley fischer coming out again, not worried about the low growth. traders now see a better than 40% rate hike in september, better than 60% in december, and that has changed the story. back to the volatility, a lot of and participants are on vacation, soou seehat volatility likely to continue in the coming days. the dollarsaw rebound, which means the yen weakness. what about governor kuroda's comments? adding to the view that central bankers will provide liquidity. he said they are standing ready to ease, if needed. that have the dollar holding at a two-week high. if you take a look at this bloomberg chart, you can see the dollar strengthening on news of a december rate hike, and that is where the market is right septembered b

stanley fischer giving some hawkish comments days ahead of jackson hole. says therenor kuroda is a chance of additional easing in september. it is central-bank diversions at its finest. morgan stanley's -- is here, selling down some risk. this is bloomberg. [♪ till janetdays yellen speech at jackson hole and stanley fischer sees growth picking up this year. the treasury two year to a two month high. joining us now is jim caron. you got dudley and fischer. more caucus. you guys still say that markets are overestimating a rate hike -- more hawkish. jim: the fed has a tightening posture. if every meeting was not live, than i think it would be a change of communication. i think it is due diligence to say every meeting is live and we'll take into consideration whatever is happening and we may hike or not. our view is it will be a slow pace. jonathan: you wake up this morning a see these comments over the weekend. the fed is nearing their goal, big deal. they have done nothing. what makes these comments different? jim: nothing. that is my point. i think fischer i

stanley fischer on the path forward for the nation. stanley fischer on the nation's capital spirit.♪ >> prepare for takeoff. janet yellen's speech boost investments. the focus turns to jobs friday. caroline: and going from a bear to bull market with opec, spurred -- the picture is not so clear anymore. alix: that your bottom dollar, the greenback climbing to a two week high. "bloomberg ," i am alix steel in new york, along with my guest cohost, caroline hyde, joining me from london. david westin and jon ferro are vacationing together in some warm country. this is really a story today about a market rereading -- re-rating it's rate hike expectations. caroline: still so much division going on. still hearing from the likes of pimco saying maybe not september quite yet. look at the

look at dollar, stanley fischer the only game in town today. then we have to look at what governor kuroda said. friday, theellen on first real day of summer. if you get all the way to august after the drama of brexit, where i walked in and said, what's the news? we will drive that forward to chair yellen on friday. francine: we certainly will, four days to go. let's get first of the bloomberg first word news. taylor: tokyo has been hit by a typhoon. more than 300 flights have been canceled, stranding thousands of passengers and more than 100,000 homes are without power. the japanese government is warning of possible landslides and damage from strong waves. the leaders of germany, france, and italy will meet at sea today to discuss brexit, economic growth, and the threat of terrorism. on the merkel, france le monde, and -- and another of their concerns is the eu dealing with turkey to send migrant flows being in jeopardy because of the attempted to. -- attempted coup. members of the opposition labor party began voting on the leader. incumbent je

stanley fischer seems to be laying the groundwork for a rate hike.general, i think the general idea is most people believe they will stand packed, at least through the election. the action in the dollar is really backing that up. people are pretty confident they will stay where they are, at least through the election. david: fed futures are pricing in a 28% chance in september. the currencies, the u.s. dollar is up about a quarter percent now. talk about currencies and the etf now. what are the best performing so far the sheer >> they are the ones tracking the yen. yen is up about 40%. the currency shares etf is the fxy up about 9%. the dollar weakness has been good for some of the funds that are basically tracking other foreign currencies. david: if an investor wants to get in, talk to me about writing strategies. -- buying strategies. >> a lot of them, especially from guggenheim, the strategy is to track the currency, whether it is the british pound or the euro. they have one for most of the major currencies. some of the other ones did a little mor

stanley fischer is going to be 11:30. us at it is a standout store story for us. stanley fischer.e chair over the u.s. federal reserve. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: 8:23 in london. welcome back. investors continue to weigh the odds of a federal reserve interest rate increase. expectations have surged over the last two weeks. fed officials said the case for the hike is getting stronger. bloomberg television will be speaking to fed vice chair stanley fischer. do not miss that conversation. very likely to be market moving. mr. fischer has delivered market-moving comments over the past few days. i expects we'll continue that. our guest is still with us. the market is pricing in a hike. 25 basis points. 25 basis points. how significant that? guest: for the economy or the exchange rate? guy: the exchange rate. guest: i think taking up face value it is not. it points to a lower dollar, especially against majors. what really matters is the market's expectations and to that extent fed communication going to be important about what the path of these fed tightening policies is going to be. our

we speak to stanley fischer. ♪ francine: this is "the pulse." i am francine lacqua in london.apple is said to be facing a potential tax will -- bill running into them billions of euros. the european commission is expected to say ireland provided them with illegal aid in turn for creating jobs. vowed to fight any dust against this ruling. they are scheduled to hold a news conference in brussels and we will bring you that here on bloomberg. u.k. mortgage approvals slumped to a low following the brexit vote, pointing to a slowdown in the borrowing surge. quickening inflation is said to erode the earning power of british households. volkswagen's ceo says it will take two to three years for his revamping of the company to bear fruit. he has about 60 projects to overhaul the company. that is as they seek to recover from the diesel emissions cheating scandal. german foreign policy spokesperson and ally to angela merkel says the u.k. will have to pay into the eu market if it wants single market advantage. >> if someone wants to benefit from the european union within the market structu

asian investors taking those hawkish comments and stanley fischer over the weekend and we are seeing dollar strength, which means yen weakness. japanese export stocks go higher. the nikkei is outperforming the rest of the region today. nintendo not showing on that screen but it has been having a good run today. the stocks are looking good. toyota also leading the way in japan. kuroda also saying there is sufficient chance of further easing in september. you can see these big policy divergence between the boj and -- [indiscernible] we are seeing quite a lot of weakness. crude is falling. a lot of energy players are being sold off. you can see those in hong kong. that is a similar story over in australia. have a look at this company, apn outdoor down 35% after it cut its forecast. santos also weaker on that weaker oil price, earnings down about 7% today. a little weakness in the markets. the yuan also being sold off. it is at a two-week low. aboutllar story, down by 0.2%. anna: thank you very much, juliette saly in hong kong. back to the u.s. and federal reserve vice chairman stanley f

matt: said vice chair stanley fischer says we are not one and done.r holds it gains and yields fall across the treasury curve. archer is repositioning ahead of the friday payrolls report? nejra: and another potential deal announced. potash and agri-amarin luminary .alks to emerge we will have a live report from toronto this hour. matt: let's go to the markets desk aware at the of doolittle has the latest. we are looking at a similar holding pattern to what we have seen all day. small losses for the major averages. the dow, s&p, and nasdaq are down modestly. when we look at a chart of the s&p 500, we see just how small this decline is, not a lot happening. this is a 10-point range. it looks a little dramatic on the intraday scale, but this is a 10-point scale. in the retail space, we have some companies on the move. abercrombie & fitch are crumbling, down 20%, on pace for the worst day since 2008 after the retailer posted a wider than expected second-quarter loss. it looks like there are real problems here in the u.s. along with their flagship stores i

from janet yellen and stanley fischer. futures under a bit of pressure. not doing a lot this morning. down 1. s&p up .01. nasdaq futures down 1. friday was a big day. we did break out of some of the ranges. that includes the ten-year treasury note. yields shot up on friday over the 1 .60 level. multiweek highs there. after that yield for the two-year yield which is closely tied to a fedex increase. she said the case is strengthening for a rate hike. fischer clarified in remarks that means september is on the table. two-year rate hikes is on -- >> showing a slight hawkish overall tone from janet yellen. let's look at european trade. london is closed. it's the august bank holiday. the unofficial end of summer in the uk. with that, we can expect to see volumes in europe start to pick up meaningfully for the rest of the week, even if we have to wait until after labor day. we are looking at declines around about half of a percent in part reacting to the comments from janet yellen late on friday. asian trade has seen a negative trade for most markets other than

our exclusive interview with stanley fischer.is bloomberg. ♪ matt: dell says it expects to closes acquisition next week. today they have received clearance for the deal to go ahead. are expected to begin trading on the new york stock exchange on september 7. isurity exchange commission giving to a corporate insider who helped a regulator uncover fraud. it is the second biggest payout ever. the whistleblower attorney says the unnamed employee tipped the regulator off to improper -- improper accounting at monsanto. spacex has a taker for the first flight of one of the group rockets. it will send its next on anications satellite up rocket. spacex has uncovered six boosters following liftoff. the launch will take waste this fall. -- take place this fall. >> vice-chairman stanley fischer today continued on data driven rates by the fed. said the central bank does not operate and that -- in a vacuum but is rather very got -- cognizant of economies. we are sensitive to what is going on. one hears and reads about and talks about it. is ha

stanley fischer, the number two at the fed, thing we could see a rate hike in 2016.any is purchasing a comapny for $1.5 billion. of course, that is if we get regulatory approval. caroline: great stuff. thank you, some key gainers to watch. let's move from corporate now to politics because european leaders are ramping up their post brexit game plans. angela merkel and french nde arent francois holla off the coast of naples today, a precursor to september's eu summit. our germany government editor is joining us now. we have a bit of a whistle stock tour going on with merkel over the next few days, but talk about the symbolism of the meeting up the coast of naples. >> they are going to meet on an italian aircraft carrier that has been used in the refuge rescue and monitering operations in the mediterranean. this refugee crisis has been facing europe since last fall. it is docked at an island that has a very special place in italian post war history. it is the place where an anti-fascist or pro-european manifesto was drafted during world war ii, during the fascist period

stocks struggle as investors parse signals from stanley fischer about a rate increase possibly. will his comments keep markets on the edge? medivation for $14 billion. we will cover what medivation has that everyone wanted. matt: donald trump thought it was a good idea to start a mortgage company in 2006, a year and half later of course it went bust. we will to you why it was risky business from the start and how it conflicts with his image today. withet: as always we start the markets. halfway through the u.s. trading day. rainy in a sense you has the latest. ramy: the fed as well as pharma are the wins that are blowing change agents. looking at the dow s&p and nasdaq we saw the dow and s&p slip into positive territory but we have seen gains fade away basically. the s&p 500 down about 2/10 of a percent. this is after stanley fischer did say that the u.s. economy could see some growth later this year. potentially putting another fed rate hike on the table. let's see what is happening in terms of the imap functions. --did see more sectors utilities of about 5/10 of a percent. hea

and it seemed to give stanley fischer the option of sort of not really addressing them that directly and instead he said be braced for both of them. steve, didn't he also say, you know, should we be on the edge of our seats? he said it depends on your stomach dealing with turmoil. >> reporter: he definitely said it that way. it's dependent on the data and also true that stan is probably a big more hawkish than janet and the question is how much real space is in between them? it's worthwhile to think about the speech that yellen delivered today. it said right at the very top, i want to make some comments on the current economy and the policy outlook. a lot of times that stuff is buried inside the speech. this was up high where she said the case is strengthened for near high and i think stan reinforced that, maybe more specific than the chair would have done but i don't think we see daylight there and we have to think seriously about september. i can't think of another way to approach this. >> steve, just real quick, any thoughts on the kind of number to look for next friday on jobs to

stanley fischer's comments, you saw a continued rally into the close.t all boils down to jobs friday later this week. hsbcng us is daragh maher, head of strategy are there was an asymmetric risk to the dollar into friday. what do you see? daragh: i agree to a point. when janet yellen came out, i think the market walked away from that speech saying she has not seen that she has not said anything particularly new. then the stanley fischer comments recast everything that janet yellen said. pricing more for september than december. that is phenomenal, given where we were thursday. had aft payroll report much more profound impact on the dollar. alix: if you look at the dollar 95, what rate hike cycle is truly priced into the number? daragh: not much. it is gradual. have in thewe markets is that there has been such a minute debate. we are debating one hike or another this year. it does not take much to shift the dollar in that context. get 3, 4, ore we five hikes. that is not the issue here. the near 4% move for the dollar like a 25 basis point hike -- this i

that was vice chairman stanley fischer.pple bracing for a million-dollar tax. ♪ this is bloomberg. vonnie: you are watching bloomberg "markets." lots of market making news this week. here is your run-through. which et a are watching. abigail do leader -- doolittle at bloomberg intelligence. >> thank you. i would like to bring the etf analysts into the conversation. this may be a week before the long labor day weekend but a lot happening. we did have janet yellen's big speech at jackson hole last week , and we have seen quite a reaction around many of the asset classes the possibility that the fed will tighten. tell us what you are seeing around the dollar etf's. >> right. the one seeing the most action is the powershares dollar bullish. it traded 70 million friday. there is definitely some heat around it. goes long the dollar index by shorting a basket of currencies. this is heavily developed markets. one, thete on that newer one but getting bigger is trade the wisdom bloomberg dollar index. at has emerging-market currencie

coming up, fed vice chairman stanley fischer lays the groundwork at jackson hole on friday.ak down his speech and look at his three major , supported by our charts. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: ed vice chairman stanley fischer delivered what turned out to be -- he indicated the 2015 interest-rate increases still under consideration. he said primarily i believe it is a remarkable and underachieve gate -- underappreciated after the great recession. given the historical experience following a financial crisis. when you look at the different charts that support the points that he makes, you can see inflation, the target right now up percent, we are inching closer to that. we are at 1.6%. it wasn't fancy, he didn't talk about expectations in all this. he just talked about the data as it is. if you look at the fed's preferred measure of inflation, it shows it inching up at the 1.6%, obviously it still below the 2% target, but it's getting higher. matt: this is a very long-term look. is it is trending up. you can look at surveys and break evens but the point is, it's getting close

stanley fischer sits down with om keene at 6:30 a.m.n't have time to turn on the tv, listen to it on the radio. ♪ . . >> we are moments away from the closing bell. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. matt: and i am matt miller. the s&p had its best day in more than three weeks halting the longest slide since june. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" matt: u.s. stocks make up their mind. janet yellen's recent comments are good for investors. can the fundamentals improve enough to keep the rally going? joe: wall street is waiting to get more endowment clients helping schools manage investments has grown into a $100 billion business. chandra: in brazil, the impeachment trial of the president is entering its final phase. can she convince lawmakers to keep her in office or is her removal already a foregone conclusion? matt: we begin with our market minute with the biggest gain on the s&p we have seen since august 5. we pointed

oliver: stanley fischer says the central bank is closed to meeting its target. investors will look for more queues at jackson hole this week. turn to thee will 2016 presidential race, donald trump calling for the clinton foundation to shut down immediately. will this move help narrow the gap in the polls? markets close in about two hours. let's had to the markets where ramy inocencio has the latest. ramy: we are in the dog days of summer and all my about 18% or 19% on the day. we do have a couple of wins pushing our way with the news from the stanley fischer and falling oil, which we will get to. pretty muchs&p are a flat line. down as well and not a lot of movement here. go into more specific information with the sectors and their help. basically 50/50. utilities right now are of the most and health care had been higher because of that pfizer deal but is paring gains. most in terms of the sector. before we get to that, let's talk about asp. gas is on the rise seeing it best day in the past three weeks or so. dominion resources are up on the order of 1%. natural

do not miss the interview with stanley fischer tomorrow morning. at 6:30e will interview eastern, 11:30 london time. mark: i will look at the stocks moving in the early session. herbalife. on the rise is billionaire increasing his stake in the company. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. time for a look at some of the biggest this and stories in the room -- in the news right now. broken turbines on three of its 787 jets. other parts of the engine damaged when snapped off, the engines built by rolls-royce. check the engines -- met with facebook founder ceo mark zuckerberg. to discuss these communications technologies and relief poverty and some of the world's is most is it vanished communities. a meeting taking place in the residence. the popehouse where lives. thousands of want to be drone pilots in the u.s. are racing to get license. more than 3300 have signed up to take test today. within a year, the number of operators for hire may exceed the nation's 171,000 private pilots. that is your business flash. mark:

tom keene hosts a conversation with stanley fischer in new york . 11:30 a.m. in london. it will be available across all platforms so you can see on bloomberg television, bloomberg.com, your bloomberg tv app, and surely there will be a podcast available on itunes. coming up, suzy wong, head of m&a is our guest in the deals report. are some major health care deals , more on the horizon? we will find out. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: this is bloomberg markets. it has in a quiet monday for deals as we wrap up the last week of summer. jeff joins us with a special guest. >> how is m&a looking this year? seems slower, a lot of big names but much slower. >> first, thank you for having me here. i've issued the invitation. slower.ower, 2016 is if you look at your today, 2016 is a little behind. the 10bout even with year average. it is too early to draw a conclusion about the year because a couple of big deals. the last three or four weeks, >> we had the motivation with pfizer and you had a bunch of deals in the health care space. how is health care overall looking? >> it is always b

the latest comments from stanley fischer. we are still digesting a lot of that.till digesting a lot of that. he is saying the federal reserve is not planning anything in that direction in terms of negative interest rates. this is the world we live in. as a reminder, you have your german five-year, you have your swiss 10 year, the danish three-year, and the japanese five-year. in the span of less than a year, all those returns have moved into negative territory. but there is a caveat. with some of those comments, he thinks the central banks using them are doing so quite successfully. all of this comes down to the data. what are the jobs numbers going to say on friday? the consumer confidence numbers we got overnight reinforce this strength we are seeing in household spending. this chart is why there should be sufficient appetite for those bond issuance is expected later on in this part of the world in the autumn. angie? thing to is a curious say from fisher, that other central banks use -- say negative rates are working. the boj is meeting. there is a lot of specu

stanley fischer putting cold water on that talking about september. this is the we are with less than our left in the trading session. the dow down by point four of 1%. seeing a 200 point spread. 18,450.ed around the we are the opposite of that. down .4 of 1% and the nasdaq .2 of 1%. with all this it is happening because of that september rate hike getting more on the table, looking at fed fund futures, it has risen by 10% points. the odds of that have been on the the yield two-year and the 10 year. this is where we stand right now. five aces winds up 8.84%. six basis points for the 10 year. it is having a ripple effect on the bloomberg dollar index. the dollar is rising right now against a basket of currencies. up almost 1%, a really big changer. 1181 against a basket of currencies. this is the biggest gain the july 5. and on the the rising 1.25%. bonnie: what were the individual moving quitewere apart from the symposium. >> first off apple right now is .8 of 1%.ght now this is in large part because of the nikkei report saying that you might be a sho

fed vice chair stanley fischer ended higher rates are coming it is close to hitting the targets for fullloyment 2% of elation. a note to clients yesterday morning. the chief market strategist for the lengthy group predicts his yellen concurs in his friday rate hike is coming as it can break there will be fireworks in the market with higher short-term interest rates and lower stock races. dave's vodkas telling her comments that would signal an end to rate hike in jackson hole. the speech will come ahead of two major inflation reports in the august jobs report critical to the fed's decision making. back to you in new york. lauren: coming up in sports, all four olympics from brian lochte sponsors stunting yesterday. he also drew fire from jimmy kimmel. >> the olympics are held in tokyo. i hope brian lochte doesn't get attacked by a godzilla. we will have more. a wiki helps the red sox move into a tie for lead in the american league east. those highlights coming at you. meteorologist maria molina will be here with your weather forecast. second trading day of the week. our prayer is across th

rish: stanley fischer did kind of contradicts himself. he did talk about conditions getting there for a rate hike, but he said growth has been, well, terrible. what gives? >> if you look at the macro data in the u.s., it's been robust. it's been very good. it's been at the global and where we had concerns, especially in europe -- sorry come also china -- where we have had concerns over slowing growth . it hasn't been a u.s.-centric concern. the only issues we had been concerned with in the u.s. have been on the wage growth side. we have seen some encouraging signs. if the global picture wasn't where it was today and it was a matter of looking at u.s. economic data, and think the case is strong for a rate hike. it's the international picture that makes a prospect for a small rate hike more difficult. rish:rish: stick around with us. we are going to talk oil coming up. president erdogan plans to complaint to the united states in the delay in extraditing and islamic cleric, but we've got this next. iraq is saying it will increase its oil exp

stanley fischer said the u.s.nomy is already close to meeting the central bank's goals and that growth will gain steam. his remarks come less than a week before janet yellen speaks on friday at an annual symposium in jackson hole, wyoming. investors are looking for clues from central bankers on the timing of potential interest admits modest growth, strong job grains, and moderate increases in inflation. futures traders are now assigning a 22% probability for a september rate increase, up from 16% a week earlier, and now even odds in december of this year. a multibillion-dollar deal may be in the works in the u.s. pharma industry. pfizer is close to an agreement to buy medivation for about $14 billion. run is the latest in a long of blockbuster deals between the drug and biotech worlds. people from a with the matters say that deal may be announced later on monday. pfizer is expected to pay a premium of 30% on the friday close. pfizer would gain prostate cancer treatment, already approved for seo and the u.s. and el

let's first talk about stanley fischer and his comments. paving the way ahead of janet yellen's comments? i think we have to be careful. we have seen a couple of false fedts this year when some members went out and the market is complacent. also, the reaction in the currency markets tells me that they are waiting for janet yellen to make her comments. that shetation here is will not only save that risks have diminished, but make some reference perhaps to an upside risk in the economy. something like that would set the scene for december. yvonne: it seems like markets are pricing in too much dovishness right now. the fed on the other side, maybe being too hawkish. banks are how central performing, ecb, boj, they have not exactly far too many bullets here. is liquidity going to be enough to keep this rally going in asia? i think liquidity is a key component. had been bullish and overweight, but after more than 20% rally from the lows in february, it is time to review what the drivers are. they are turning around. we are seeing that and think

this is a chart on irving fisher and stanley fischer. the overshoot is the yellow circle.ore. the white line is cleveland cpi. yes, the white line is an elevated cleveland cpi. that is another core statistic. ed morse, there is that core inflation. we get that overshoot with your $65 oil, don't we? edward: martin was talking about the services sector in the u.s. boundl services sector is to see significant inflation when we get a drilling rebound. tom: let's go back to the overshoot. bring back the chart. martin, help is here. what is the probability that we cheriantanley fis overshoot. the only one who got my pun was dr. morse. thank you. thein: we like to look at inflation data at the low volatility and high volatility component. the low volatility components are running north of 3% right now. i am not necessarily sure we need oil or energy prices in the middle 60's to deliver that. i would encourage listeners or viewers to look back at a piece that janet yellen released at the end of 2015, which looked at pcemyths relative to the 2% target and where that was coming from

had stanley fischer, deputy head of the fed come out and say, september on the table. rate hike in september as possible. that sent the dollar up, where it has been ever since. japan.to take you to dis the nikkei 225 up 2.5% on the back of janet yellen's speech and roto speaking -- kuroda speaking in wyoming. if he has to, he is prepared to do more easing. on friday wasaw the biggest in a month and a half. i want to talk about emerging markets. south african stocks, it is the world's worst performing emerging-market currency. that is helping some stocks, in particular. exposure, the dollar this is a five day chart. meanwhile, however, the mid-cap stocks, the white line, they are down because they do not have the dollar exposure. anna: thank you very much. crude oil has moved lower this morning on doubts over production freeze agreements. yousef joins us now. you are looking ahead to algiers. fascinating charts this weekend about the increases in saudi a and from the arabians. thing, the stronger dollar is weighing on the commodities complex. we are focusing in on the p

guy: stanley fischer talking to tom keene. august, what a difference a year makes. particularly when it comes to volatility. let's return to the uber can chose you -- and show you what happened a year ago. we highlighted it in red. you can see the huge spike in volatility. china largely responsible. that was a year ago. where are we now? the markets are relatively becalmed despite equities pushing higher and bond prices doing the same. what happens when asset allocator's return in september? are we going to see similar story that we saw earlier this year in january? we saw equities selling off aggressively. volatilenticipating a september? >> it has been very quiet in august. we expect september will be the same. markets are up 2.5% in local currency. it is hard to see markets trading significantly higher but it is also harder to see markets selling off. there seems to be a lot going on at the moment. guy: what would change that for you? we have talked about the fed and we have an ecb meeting for you. central bankers seem to be providing some catalysts. i go back to

a reminder our interview is coming up with the fed vice chair, the number two, stanley fischer, cnbcs down with steve liesman in jackson hole right after janet yellen's speech. that's in the next hour. 11:30 a.m. >> when we come back, the behind the scenes story of philippe dauman's ouster from viacom. next on "squawk on the street." b le trading desk you that thinkorswi tradinplatrm wrever i lely scs acros all yo devices, right? , so my cuom studies will go with me? anywhe you wt go!e hot!ncy deviceinm. only at tdmeriade ♪ there'no one out t. ne sno o spe... one way odn andvery road. but there is one c that can conquer em all. merced-benc-class. one way odn andvery road. venshift pointsd suspension customize thstng f the md you' i.. one way odn andvery road. leasthe c300 for369 month al >>> the bond market is it signaling a big flashing sign for the economy? we discuss on tradingnation.cnbc.com. more "squawk on the street" coming up next. there's a lot pces you r want to see 7.95 [ beep lityere smarte if only the signs as obvious when you trade. smarter entry d exit points and can h

then her second in command -- vice chair stanley fischer-- told cnbc -- it's possible the fed could raise rates twice this drivers will find the highest gas prices in more than a month. triple doesn't expect that will prvent anyone from taking a road trip over the long weekend... and prices are still lower than this time last year./ michelle and kirsten? ((michelle mortensen)) >> and jill -- all those home cooks out there... those home cooks out there... can spruce up their kitchens today... explain! a: its amazon kitchen deals day. not quite as big as amazon prime day... friday in july... but... the retailer is slashing prices on kitchen electronics and appliances. if you're not a prime member.. you can sign up for a free 30 day trial.// michelle and kirsten? /// demetria obilor a lot of you have reached out to me concerned that drivers aren't stopping for school buses, so i'm going to go over those rules again. according to nevada law, both directions of traffic must stop for a stopped school bus when it has its stop signs out and/or red flashers on. the only times you can pass a school

stocks struggle as investors parse signals from stanley fischer about a rate increase possibly.ents keep markets on the edge? medivation for $14 billion. we will cover what medivation has that everyone wanted. matt: donald trump thought it was a good idea to start a mortgage company in 2006, a year and half later of course it went bust. we will to you why it was risky business from the start and how it conflicts with his image today. withet: as always we start the markets. halfway through the u.s. trading day. rain

scarlet: stanley fischer for coming up with new terminology. >> flirting with natural made me think of neutral range. we will discuss hillary clinton's new economic proposal for small businesses. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> let's get the first word news. obama is in louisiana, where he got a view of the damage caused by flooding that killed 13 people and forced thousands from their homes. >> this is not just about property damage. this is about people's roots. can these things happen, it seem too much to bear, but you are not alone on this. even after the tv cameras leave, the country will continue to support you and help you until homes folks back in their and lives are rebuilt. >> the federal government has approved more than $120 million in assistance for residents affected are the flooding. an american soldier has been killed when their patrol was struck by a roadside bomb in afghanistan. -- afghans shoulders soldiers were wounded. this comes a day after 100 soldiers were sent to the area. tim kaine is accusing donald trump of using his campaign to make money for himself. in denver, ti

stanley fischer came in and said a september rate rise was on the table. we are now scraping the bottom. i want to show you what's been happening in terms of the daily trading range here. yesterday in the day before, we were talking about their lowest trading ranges. all the way on the right-hand side, are spread is at 24 points. that's our spread is at 24 points. 8is is its highest since july . definitely more trading happening here off of yellen and the fed speak. we are still on track for our 35th day of less than 1% gains. david: what are we seeing besides equities? ramy: we have to at currencies and commodities as safe havens. the u.s. 10 year, we can see the volatility -- we were at session lows in the late morning after fed chair yellen spoke. been talkinger has about potential rate rise for september, now at session highs come up four basis points. similar thing happening to the dollar. in addition, let's look at what's happening with gold. gold is going the other way, falling because of a potential rate rise. over the past couple days or so today,

stanley fischer says negative rates are not on the table in the u.s., but they do seem to be workinguntries. speaking on bloomberg television, he said america is fortunate that it is not an a position to where it may have to consider going negative. he also said decisions made by other central banks does impact the u.s.. >> the world is becoming increasingly interconnected, particularly the capital markets of the world, so what we do affects many other countries. that was always so. it is also true that what they do affects us, so we are dealing with the interconnectedness and we are probably the most important of the central banks. will review a. hike in test worker visa fees after india raise concerns. the government said the decision to raise these are charges could damage relations. india meanwhile is considering a , allowingncy visa people who invest $1.5 million to live in india for 10 years. retail investors in singapore are facing losses as the bond fallout spreads beyond the millionaire class. at new issues targeted individuals this year have dropped below par as failures in

of the speak from federal governors coming out in the u.s., everything from stanley fischer's upbeatite comments about the u.s. economy, saying u.s. jobs are near full and improving. potentiallyley saying there might be a surprise rate hike here in september, but all eyes will be focused towards the jackson hole, wyoming this friday as janet yellen speaks. at ising i like the look the fed funds future market, and they are going to maintain some leastility and raise at one time this year. i think it will be in the december meeting as fed funds futures are pointing to a 55% chance of a hike at that december session. think there is too much noise coming out of the fed with various fed officials making their views known? do you think things have to be reined in a little bit? >> i agree 100%. it is almost like there should be a quiet time for some of these fed governors. , month-to-month, hawkish or dovish tones change wildly. up the fed funds futures, the volatility on the fed funds futures moved so much from month-to-month, good jobs report, whether we have strong housing, or any of the

negative across the board especially after stanley fischer gave as saying that the rate hike was on theor september. the dow is down by 25%. the nasdaq is flat, the s&p down .1%. curiel and gave her comments with all the market pop with positive sentiment. that has definitely taken a downward turn. in terms of the s&p intraday use even more clearly what i'm talking about. chair yellen's comments came out at 10 a.m., and is pop in the markets, a couple points away from the record close of 2190. at 11:30, that's when stanley fischer gave his comments about that september rate hike being on the table. we get session lows just afternoon, and we are down about .1%. meantime, there are some corporate news to talk to about. let's go to telecoms. in the way of apple, if you are looking for the iphone seven or whatever name is going to be out when it comes out next month, you may be facing a shortage. this is according to the nikkei, saying the first round rollout may have problems because of faulty components. we see apple at its lowest in three weeks, down .5%. verizon down about 1%. both of t

is really -- as previously as july she said they .ould not height -- hike rates we heard from stanley fischerill dudley, who did the walk with her this morning. they thought the case had strengthened so you have the core three saying rates could go up, and you add that they are a data defendant fed and what they are probably waiting for is the jobs report that friday, the cpi report in september before the fed meeting. if the data is supported than a september move becomes more likely. vonnie: that move -- that meeting is on september 20 and 21st. if you look at treasuries, we are looking at lower yields and a flatter curve. well so itties as does not look like the markets believe that the u.s. economy will grow more quickly than it has been growing, or that it will reach that inflation target anytime sooner than janet yellen , in the next few years. that does not bode well. michael: she is making no promises because their position is, we do not understand what is going on in the economy either. she made a specific reference to the bond market and the idea that the fed does not know exactly w

some of that was the selloff that was perceived to be the hawkishness of those comments from stanley fischer. one commodity getting a bounce today was natural gas. one last heatwave, you can see right there a bit of a rally today. diveet: let's take a deep into the bloomberg and you can find all the charts using the function at the bottom of your screen. we will stick with the idea that oil prices have given back from their recent gains. you notice this column, this is september. oil tends to drop in the month of september. for the last five years that's been the consistent pattern. in 2015 crude oil drop more than 8%. 2013, about 5%. these are pretty sizable losses. so an ominous warning after this extraordinary about. i want to talk about the stock market today because it's kind of an interesting day. it's really jerky. matt: how did you do this? you see these really sharp ups and downs. on the left side you see this is volume distribution, this is the volume analysis function. you can see it's concentrated at basically here, here, and a little bit here. you get the point there were just a

central bank policy as well as the fed outlook, miss our interview with federal reserve vice chair stanley fischer tomorrow. tom keene will be interviewing 11:30 londona.m., time. david: the brazilian president saying removing her from office would amount to her death penalty. will that sway any votes customer the latest, in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is bloomberg market. vonnie: to brazil, where the impeachment of the president is entering its final phase. she defended herself in front of congress for the first time, saying she did not commit any crime she was accused of and she would never give up fighting. rose the most against emerging-market currencies. we are anticipating a full result tomorrow or wednesday, but is voting already underway? what do we know so far? guest: right now, she's answering questions from senators. we have about 50 senators scheduled to ask questions, so this is likely going to take a while and go into the late hours of tonight. we have lawyers from the defense and the accusation will speak and all the senators have 10 minutes to speak. all 81 have 10 m

. -- last year his when stanley fischer spoke. he began to talk about employment being at the right place, focusing more on the rest of the fed mandate. what do you think that will be the subject of conversation cap down john williams talking about what the gdp target should be. what is the monetary policy required to keep that? if you just look at it from a early is ?he fed at its full day full employment, the fed getting to 2%, then the fed would hike. that is why i think the of neutral interest rates, strength of the dollar, i think that is the argument that yellen has become more and amer with. she talked about productivity being weak because of technological innovation. that is clearly monetary policy is not equipped to deal with that. yellen believes a lot of the weakness is a function of very weak capital deepening. monetary policy can deal with that. if you are able to boost psychology about longer run , that could get business to invest more today. that includes capital deepening capital.rn boosts i think they're finding

a conversation you don't want to miss tomorrow with stanley fischer, vice chairman of the federal reservehe sits down the tom keene at 6:30 a.m. eastern on television and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ chandra: you are watching "what'd you miss?" time for another deep dive into the bloomberg. let's start with a chart on the carry trade. this is when investors borrow in groups of 10 currencies with group interest rates and use it to buy higher yields. this is on pace for its biggest annual gain since 2012. this chart shows the deutsche bank carry trade index. i thought this was an interesting want to show given the environment of low yields we have and the constant hunt for yield we keep talking about. the carry trade is one of the strategies. another one that has been rallying is the evaluation and momentum trades. this carry trade in particular interesting because you have some currencies rallying even when their central banks ease. joe: another strategy that has done well lately, risk parody funds which go along equities and treasuries at the same time. that is the redline going back to th

on the back of it is what we heard from the fed, the hawkish comments from the -- from stanley fischeryou play that against the backdrop. initial thoughts. europe is stronger than we thought it could be. antonin: the is his knee in will, lower rates -- we see signs coming out of the fed, potentially which may change that. if it weren't the case, he would've found indications and markets, inflation of dividend yields. because of the relative positioning. it is still too early to judge. it is going to remain highly data dependent. the six or numbers are coming out tomorrow. it does highlight -- the cpi numbers are coming up tomorrow. it is raining -- it is raising questions. francine: bloomberg did speak to stand fisher. here are his thoughts on rates. >> central banks which are implementing them, there were four or five of them -- basically think they are quite successful and are staying with the approach. possibly with the exception of japan, they are thinking it through and they said they would come back to try and make negative rates work better. francine: is there more of a divergen

conversation about the latest signals we are getting from the federal reserve, specifically from stanley fischerest will join us from credit suisse. yousef: oil and its longest winning streak in four years. iraq decides to raise exports. crude has climbed 16% in seven sessions. new central bank governor will pull up the reins. will endran signals it its control of its currency.