stanley fischer warns there are risks to running a high pressure economy.ow divided is the fmo see? -- fmoc? has better than expected so -- subscriber growth. there is a bit of a risk appetite today. looking at the futures market saying that we could rise about 0.4%. it is gathering strength. the u.s. is pushing higher as well. is bad news good news. data out yesterday hinting that the fmoc will have to be -- odity of -- c zealand dollar up this morning. cpi data is the main reason for that. the market beginning to reassess if we will see a rate move from the bank. what is going on is that dollar is trading lower. the british pound is up a little bit, dare i say. to the new zealand market, it is also selling off. keep an eye on the inflation story. there are so many stories surrounding it. the debate inside the fed, what is happening in new zealand. running through the market. the pound is on the move. we will watch to see what happens at 9:30 a.m. let us get you up to speed with what you need to know. barclays says investors should by european equities reg

and stanley fischer said, do not do that.he key phrase here was a complex mosaic -- if you read dornbusch fisher's stars, the ,lassic textbook, it is complex it is a mosaic. and they are feeling their way forward. assumption made the that stanley fischer and janet yellen are talking about the same kind of theory -- onwe surmise that they are the same page, relative, the market is that the rest of 2017 is up for grabs. tom: that is an important distinction. i would say, he is not talking about december. what we are talking about now is goldman sachs. four dollars $.88 a share, well above what the industry was estimating at $3.89 a share. abovel revenue was well what the street was estimating. these are very high. with all of these, we have to be careful because there are adjustments. it appears at least to be significant. alix: the number of rome will .are act is the fixed trading that is up from the second quarter. equity is continuing a trend. .oming in at 1.7 billion that is the theme we have seen from the big investment ba

stanley fischer's address to the economic club of new york at 12:15 eastern.s bloomberg, i'm jonathan ferro. here is the state of the equity market in the united states. equities markedly lower. no big drama to the downside. the nasdaq also a little bit lower. let's head over to the nasdaq now. office, looking at some movers. >> hi there, jonathan. we do have a couple of movers. tokin' brands trading lower underperform from neutral. david palmer is saying that shares are fully valued, citing valuation, saying that all the catalysts are priced in. aey have failed to find national value platform and need to find a more cohesive stand for sales improvement. it is the first down week in five. stocks trading higher on the open. groupon, shares are nicely higher. analyst erin turner has upgraded the shares to outperform from neutral. he is saying that he thinks the third quarter could exceed estimates based on traffic growth. more than 20%ees upside potential for the shares of groupon, a stock that is amazingly up 70% year to date. alix: thanks so much, abigail. net

stanley fischer warns there

anna: global growth in focus, the fed's stanley fischer says fiscal banks need help, and the imf says the record debt hits or hundred $52 trillion. the u.k. chancellor heads to wall street to reassure banks over brexit. we speak to fil philip hammond later today. and samsung circus, as the activist investor calls for the company to restructure. a warm welcome the countdown everybody. i am anna edwards. manus: i am manus cranny. the reach for yield, what we search for for personified in dollar-yen.the dollar having the longest rally since. march what we have here is five-year. the white line with the five year yield between the u.s. and of course japan. and this is again against the dollar. we know it is appreciating your we have a bit of attorney dollar had a nice run for the past seven days. what can stop that? the real yield, talking about .57 yield,ve japanese are -.48. that could drive money back into the yen, the stop the traded bullish bets on the yen, anna, for the much there a record high. it looks as if this reach is what is going to try the next move on dollar-yen. anna: hed

vonnie: coming up, fed vice chair stanley fischer be speaking at the economic club of new york. we have complete coverage. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: we are awaiting a speech by fed vice chair stanley fisher at the neck and i -- the economic club of new york. as we wait, we are joined by economics editor michael mckee. given that the markets are abuzz about the economy running hot, even though we heard that before, janet yellen mentioned it friday. do you anticipate it affecting markets? >> it could if he were to reinforce the idea that they knew what they were doing as eric rosen did. he will talk about low rates. we will have to see. stanley fischer is clearly enjoying the salad course here at the economic club of new york. we are getting headlines of what he intendto talk about at this speech. low rates may threaten financial stability. negative, there is no evidence to tighten financial instability risks. lower trend rates could be in deeper recessions. financial stability clearly on the mind of some members of the f rmc. they could lift national rates and expansionary poli

stanley fischer says it's not so easy to let rates fly high, but he's got two ideas. floor show is next on "countdown." ♪ ♪ ...as a combination of see products.. and customers. every on-time arrival is backed by thousands of od employees, ...who make sure the millions of products we ship arrive without damages. because od employees treat customer service... ...like our most important delivery. od. helping the world keep promises. or keeping a hotel's guests cuttinconnected.i to 35,000 fans... businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. when a moment turns romantic, why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol

here is stanley fischer right now on letting it out of the bottle. on a high-pressure economy. stanley fischer: there is a point where if you kept cutting interest rate, you would get a point -- as you cut the interest rate, you are telling people the rate of return -- you are being charged for the privilege of anding to the government, the more you are charged, the less income you have left. there is stan fischer on a high-pressure economy. is it good for you? howard: i am concerned that the fed may be raising rates right into the teeth of a weakening economy. some of the inflation data that you have just shown -- some of that is a lagging indicator. periodsee next year is a of continued tightening of -- or lowering of profit margins, so i think we are going to be looking at earnings estimate reductions, very low nominal gdp growth, and the likelihood that growth next year will be weaker. tom: this is absolutely critical, and this goes to the work you have done at jan: for years. here is the real growth economy, here is inflation. if we get a better

this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: global growth in focus, the fed's stanley fischer says fiscal banks need helpf says the record debt hits or hundred $52 trillion. the u.k. chancellor heads to wall street to reassure banks over brexit. we speak to fil philip hammond later today. and samsung circus, as the activist investor calls for the company to restructure.

what will stanley fischer say this morning?g purely on what will happen with rates. december break? >> december most likely. november, still a possibility. tom: that would be a shock. it is a dead meeting. what to say? >> i don't think so. it is a life meeting, in that they will discuss whether or not they raise rates. >> they will not raise it. >> yellen has said that it is possible. >> are you making a prediction? tom: i'm not making a prediction. , modestlyit mean accommodative? >> a means, where is a neutral policy position. the whole point is trying to normalize monetary policy. what is the new normal going to be? productivity growth has been slowing down. the natural rate of interest will be much lower than we have been used to growing up. you're talking maybe 2.5% or so on the rates. i think the figures we got from the fed is they are getting closer to raising rates. at the same time, they're looking to be less gradual over the next several years. francine: i'm fascinated by this november possible call. it's unclear to m

we'll be watching vice chairman stanley fischer speak to the new york economic club. on wednesday we'll hear from the san francisco fed president john williams. on thursday new york fed president bill dudley speaks. there's a lot of fed speak adding to volatility and perhaps the confusion in the markets. i would watch vice chairman fischer who has pointed to the fact that the economy is ready, almost there, for interest rates that could be potentially disruptive to continue on that theme today. >> also the ecb today, it's a busy week both on corporate and -- >> and we have a presidential debate on wednesday night. >> that's in las vegas. are you going? >> no, but you can stay up to watch. >>> netflix is amongst the big agenda of items to focus on today. landon is telling us what to watch. >> netflix reporting third quarter results after the closing bell today. here are the three things to watch. first, the numbers. the street is looking for the streaming service to report revenue of $2.2 billion on earnings. that's down a penny compared to the same quarter a year ago.

now, fed vice chairman stanley fischer will speak monday, and he's been a major rate hike proponent. i bet his new speech will cause this market to get hit. time he's opened his mouth in 2016. but fischer's words will inevitably help some stocks, notably the banks, which benefit from higher rates, and bank of america reports monday morning. the stock has been advancing of late, was up nicely today. even though it's still dirt cheap, i have to wonder if bank of america has gotten ahead of itself thanks to the excellent earnings today from jpmorgan and citigroup. some terrific pin action in all the banks today. if bank of america gets hit, it might be the perfect way to play that rate hike that does come in netflix. and unlike the last few times that this company has reported, the expectations have at last been ratcheted down to where i think they can be beaten. longer term i remain a believer in netflix but i accept there could be hiccups along the way. ibm reports too. we need to see some revenue growth there, not just earnings growth. that's what would break the stock out of its slu

we are delighted our next panel is could join us, stanley fischer of course is the vice chair of the people would bring them on stage we have another poll in question. this is sort of the critical question facing us other than the election. what's going to happen with the fed. where the employment report this morning that was golden locks not too hot, not too cool. grab your mobile devices and we have a simple question. do you think the fed will hike before the end of the year? which with in the december meeting presumably that could raise interest rates a few days before the presidential election though they will not tell us that. yes or no, that hike by the end of the year? we are at 62.5 -- 60 on yes, 40 on now. that sort of the wall street consensus that december is pretty likely given where wages are. you don't need it for me on that the uk from stanley fischer and social let me please welcome to the stage again tim adams and stan fischer. [applause] >> great. thank you very much your it's a real pleasure to have with me today a dear friend, someone who i've admired and followed

one of the key factors is stanley fischer, the vicechair of the federal reserve. he is a most walking back what yellen was saying about being hot accommodative of a economy. in his point of view, it is all about slower growth. the slower growth trend caused by low productivity. there is slower labor force to growth. and higher shaveings are connected with the aging u.s. population. and also weak investment and lower global growth dragging on u.s. exports. let's take a quick look quickly at asia, the state of the markets trading in mumbai. japan, though, notably just a little bit off. tracy, how about your part of the world? tracy: sure, so in the middle east we are just under two hours away from the opening of the emirates markets. we saw interesting moves yesterday. take a look at dubai, down .89%. we had the bank reporting third-quarter profit late yesterday, missing analyst estimates. , down, one abu dhabi of the worst performers in the world supposedly because of banking stocks. we will be trying to figure out whether this has to do with liquidity or banking.

in less than half an hour we will find out stanley fischer shares the same stance as janet yellen.lier he said he expected things to pick up in the second half of the year. growth setting the stage for interest rate increases. hsbc head of, global fx research, david loom, weighed in on when a rate hike will happen. enter -- ine in and an iteration for the dollar. emerging markets come off, all prices go down, they back off and then everything returns. is thing about a fed meeting that a move by the fed doesn't tell you about the next one. interest rate rises in the signal, that's the big bull market in 2014. going back, we thought rates should be 2.5 in december and they are not going to be. so, maybe december, maybe, but then another year? are you really worried about that? no, i'm not. sorry. year.by the end of next 10 year bond yields cable? -- or cable? >> from here? david: 135, it's quite close. >> when you take a look at inflation expectations, it seems to be different from the past. taking a look at the terminal, 30, tenure, five-year, at a five-month high. do you see is jus

>> you know, charles, the job numbers according to stanley fischer was very close to being ideal, and think one of the things we have to take into consideration to all the numbers we saw today is the bar for all the economic data has been lowered to an incredibly low level. i mean no one seems to want to talk about 2% gdp growth for the last seven years. so we have to keep it in perspective. i thought one of the best signs, one of the good things that i saw out of these numbers was the unemployment rate going up to 5%, meaning a few more people coming back into labor participation. obviously, we need to see that in order to see a real recovering economy, so we're still in 1978, but nonetheless, it did go up and i think that's a good sign. charles: millions of people dropped out in the last year, 3 million people have come back. the frustrating spartthey're having a tough time finding those jobs. we want to see people hit the brakes because it makes it work, six million jobs are out there to be had. before i let you go, dan, thoughts on the market? no more big economic indicators. what

fed vice chair stanley fischer said late yesterday that there is evidence that the natural rate of interestas fallen to low levels and that could mean the economy is stuck in a low growth rut that could be hard to escape. fischer said central bankers may face a future where short-term rates never get above zero. jeffrey laker said a strong september jobs report with payroll growth of 100,000 would strengthen the case for a rate hike sooner rather than later. context here, lacker for the longest time pushing the fed to raise rates. >> looking at bank stocks again, earlier best performer two days in a row. yesterday the broad banks were up 2%. goldman sachs up 2.5%. so quickly when sentiment changes on whether we could get a rate hike, these guys are so geared to it, picking it up so quickly. the best point is wells fargo. if we did get a rate hike of 25 basis points, it would far outweigh in terms of earnings and financial terms any issues it has been facing. you would think there are pr issues here, but the bottom lines for the banks, if you get a rate hike, all the short-term f fears go aw

. >>> speaking of the jobs report and things in the u.s., the federal reserve vice chair, stanley fischer, has warned that the economy could be stuck in a low growth period due that interest levels have fallen to such low levels. he said the unconventional policy tools employed during the financial crisis could become a recurrent fact of life. federal reserve governors may have become more exposed to politics in recent decades, that's what jeffrey lacquer is saying. in recent policy decisions the fed has not taken into political considerations, according to lacquer. >>> jimmy lee joins us, ceo of wealth consulting group. welcome back. how are you? >> great, thank you. >> for viewers not familiar, you're a medium-sized country? >> yes. >> assets under management south of 500 million? >> about a billion. >> okay. and normal individuals you represent? >> high net worth. >> not retail. >> some retail as well. >> i saw a chart it had an overwhelming majority of retailers. so, how are you investing at the moment for your clients? >> we have clients that are investing fresh cash, being very slow

i was thinking of this chart, listening to stanley fischer the pceer day, the fed looks at corp. it should be. this is the cleveland media and, very famous -- median, very famous within economics -- economist and it shows a rise up , the great moderation up to the beginning of the financial crisis which is the little circle. if you extrapolate out the with of the move in inflation we are there right now. we have curved up and back on trent to break out to a newer and higher inflation regime. i am not predicting that, i am saying that one measure of core e shows a than cpi cor rising inflation and we see that in the united states service sector, inflation, above this level at 3.2%. francine: it is a good chart and i pick something for china. i want to show gdp, we had the recorder gdp -- the third quarter gdp. china gdp year on year, the blue line and this is why i put the yellow line, hillary put the yellow line for me at 100, china financial conditions, monetary condition index, i am charting me to. -- the two. anything below 100 means there is a slight tightening and monetary c

on monday we get to hear from stanley fischer.n wednesday we get to hear from john williams and thursday new york fed president bill dudley will speak. and the u.s. equity futures at this hour looking down. the dow is going to open down 42 points. the nasdaq down 16 points and the s&p down 6 points. in asia the hang seng is down. the shanghai composite is also down. the nikkei is marginally up this morning. european equities at this hour are also in the red across the board. again, we'll call it marginal for now and take a quick look at wti crude. we're looking at 50.20. it has come down a little bit but hasn't cracked the 50-mark in terms of a downward pressure. >> if you feel like the s&p has not done anything for four months, you would be correct. >> yes. nothing. >> nothing. just as flat as can be. now the things that trouble me. >> what troubles you this morning? >> what troubles me is our distance. >> that's a whole other story. >> politically, fphilosophicall and -- in the meantime, it looks like something could happen. goo

stanley fischer, the vice chair, pointed out there is not much success in the past in the fed pushingthe unemployment rate a little bit. inflation too low and is too high, it has almost caused a recession. alix: is it that data point that will re-raised the market higher? dean: in my view, it is. it is a combination of two things. i think inflation is going to the fed's target next year. the core pc inflation moving up to 2%, and i believe the unemployment rate is heading down to 4%. that combination is likely to have the fed moving faster than they have been. alix: will that be enough for lyle brainard? over and over we see stanley fischer and janet yellen lead to the -- lean to the moderate to hawkish cap. why will that change the game for lyle brainard? dean: i am not sure they will. they may have the sense from the picks upde if the fed the pace. those more moderate dubs, likely leadership, will become uncomfortable with the unemployment rate falling so low. alix: we wind up getting 4% unemployment, inflation moving higher. that re-rates the market for 2017. is the feds ability to

guy: stanley fischer says central banks need fiscal help to spur growth.e have been hearing that a lot. fischer says ultralow interest rates are not necessarily -- and calls for "transparent and sound monetary policy here and abroad." the yen's longest losing streak -- boosts the u.s. dollar. the move has given a boost to japanese exports and some relief for the boj. still with us, derek halpenny. where does the yen go? derek: very short-term, it is the u.s. story, yields are judging higher. -- yields are drifting higher. the fact that we have tried to break on the downside three or four times since brexit, and that has failed. where getting traction the other way. if you look at the broader picture, i would still say there is skepticism in the market in regard to the boj's coverage of assessment. comehether the markets to convinced that is going to be enough to lift inflation and citation, i am not so sure. -- inflation expectation, i am not so sure. then really yields, high in japan, that brings back support. guy: let me say this chart. this is dollar ye

economyok at where the is at the moment going back to september, we had stanley fischer say the otheray -- look, it was a close call whether or not to raise interest rates. but recent developments over the last few weeks really suggest that the economy has not been blown off track at all. inflation is rising, core inflation is edging up as well. our view is that we will get a hike in rates in december. talking aboutbeen the importance of talking about the capacity in the employment market and the importance of not thinking we were at will employment. janet yellen's big on labor economics. does that stand in the way of a hike? >> we don't think so. central bankers anticipate inflation movements a few years before they think inflation will hit the targets. the evolution of the labor market is one of those things that tells you in advance if it is likely to happen. i don't think december is off track at all but what the fed thinks about the capacity of labor will have a big effect on where rates will go in 2017 and beyond. reserves have fallen slightly, below expectations. down for a thi

matt: at a speech in new york, vice chair stanley fischer said government policies can hardly counteracthe impact of the games that could be holding back u.s. economy and weighing on interest rates. tug-of-war been in a lately over whether the company and continue to add subscribers or if it has hit a wall. bank of america today reporting its best third quarter for fixed income trading in five years, labonte trading revenue continue to be a bright spot for goldman sachs tomorrow. scarlet: let's look at where the major indexes stand. we are still down but we have taken a like lower in the last 10 minutes or so. at what is a look going on current abigail: it has three majorabout averages. in the u.s., the dow, the nasdaq, three major averages down 3/10 of 1%. investors are treading water. this follows back-to-back weekly declines for the dow and s&p 500 and. august 4 to brexit. we take a look at the 10 year yield and today it is lower. if there could call a few years ago, he thinks rates have gone lower. we see over the two days, it has basically been a round-trip and the 10 year yield is

is that what stanley fischer was doing yesterday? think that is part of what had to happen.ctations. so i think as far as the stock market is concerned, the key thing is the trajectory of earnings. we have had a year of no earnings growth. and the expectations for next iar, which are 10% increase, think those numbers will have to come down. totalosts combined with labor costs, declining revenue growth, it will squeeze margins. i don't see how we get a lot of growth. ward onhat was howard "bloomberg surveillance" later today. goldman sachs shares or higher today after they announced a higher income in revenue in the third quarter. they earned more than a dollar estimates. analyst joining us with more is laura keller who covers the banking industry. and glenn schorr. let me start with you, glenn and get your reaction to what we heard this morning. explain the buy rating? well, i think goldman along with the other think banks that have reported put out pretty good numbers. next income trading got a lot better. and underwriting was pretty good. and the companies have done a grea

sayinge: stanley fischer it is also up to fiscal to do its part.aying that central banks need the fiscal help for growth. when our government after going to listen to central bankers? ago,a couple of years austerity -- that story is completely over. the u.k. is talking about shifting to more aggressive policies. we will see increased government spending. and there's no question that over the last couple of years, we have seen a real drag from spending. and there is a widespread recognition that this is a mistake. ours we have reached maximum effectiveness but we haven't achieved the growth that we need. so there is a definite change of mood. unemployment is below 5%, maybe we don't need it anymore? francine: is it as simple to say that austerity hasn't worked, could we have been right all along? ian: yes, it hasn't worked. the growth that we were supposed to be getting when qe started years ago has not materialized. and a big reason for that is the fiscal tightening. and what we've learned is that have a crash when you fragile banking system and ba

average monthly job gains, lower today issue015, but my bigger is wage gains in the u.s., up , even stanley fischerlike to see wage gains in the 3% range before the start worrying about inflation flowing through to the economy. i think the fed can afford to wait a little bit longer. i think you have a lot of uncertainty ahead, not only with u.s. elections, but risks in europe and asia as well that have historically are allowed the fed to be on hold longer than they would like. ramy: the u.s. elections, two weeks away until those elections. i want to show our viewers the latest tabs on what has been happening in terms of the election. the blue line on the bottom left is where hillary clinton is .alling, 47.7% what is the general sentiment, a sigh of relief? think it is becoming less and less likely that donald trump becomes president, and the probability of that is now something less than 15%. the bigger question will be the makeup of congress and whether the democrats connection control the house of representatives, which would mean more of hillary clinton's policies would actually make it through.

stanley fischer began his speech at the economic club of new york on the percentage change from 4% downeduction in real growth. what did youiend, think of his dissertation on long rates? marvin: he is right on to describe this major development in macroeconomics over the past two decades, that we are having a slowdown in the growth rate of the economy. it is directly related to the reduction in real long-term interest rates. interest rates are a barometer of the relative optimism people have about the future. tom: where is the animal spirit, sri-kumar? it was like donald trump was re-channeling you the other day, but you are not the pessimist that i hear from mr. trump. where did the economic growth come from? sri-kumar: it has to come from real factors, not from monetary factors. tom: so it is on the i.s. curve. thekumar: to the extent emphasis is going to be on -- and you deal with a one track pony -- we are not going to do it. tom: what about the pirates this year? what happened? marvin: i would rather not talk about it. tom: this has been a magnificent hour. francine just loves doin

stanley fisher speaking yesterday, and here's a quote. it's about ultralow interest tes, and i'll quote him -- jonathan: what is mrs. fischer looking at where you yourself have talked about the financial stability risks? mohammed: the numbers i look at suggest that you've got two phenomenons going on. one is people taking too much risk, and he does mention people reaching for yield, and the other one is that the integrity of the financial system is under pressure. providers of long-term financial services simply cannot provide these services to the population. why is that of concern? because people may start to self-ensure, that's bad news for the economy. the key thing, jonathan, if i may, about the speech was the act nonlment by yet another central banker that they cannot remain the only game in town, that they need help from other agencies that have much better uited tools. david: put yourself in the fed's position at this point, or janet yellen's position. tepid growth, but at the same time risks in asset overvaluation, maybe misallocation. what do you do either to make better or at least not make it worse? mohamed: fir