lou: stuck, and rates lookly, stanley fisher notwithstanding, i will ouch are my bet.hese rates, don't go up. because these people, that make up the fed, and particularly fed open market committee are not on their worse day, that dumb. >> what about a shot of liquidity, maybe not in form of -- but, fed has to raise interest rates but offset it? i don't know. lou: do you think they will raise rates? at some point -- >> at some point. lou: in september? >> no, i think december. lou: dana. >> there is a greater wait on meeting such as october, but i think if fed raises rates it is a signal. lou: no one should believe their lying eyes in this economy? scott. >> i think as long as they say data dependents. it continues to disappoint, hello japan we'll have a rate compression environment, lower interest rates for longer than we thought, let's say they raise them in december. quarter in 2016, a quarter in 2020, okay we're at low for a long time. lou: i'm sorry you said that about japan. that should make everyone squirm. right. >> here a little bit later. and we thank you. lor

as we know, feds vice chair stanley fisher's hawkish comments over the weekend suggested that the door's still open for september right raitt hike and this leads us to the second which is the u.s. economy and the numbers are quite mixed but the focus is on the u.s. jobs data for more clues on when the fed will raise rates. last but not least it's obviously china. investors want additional stimulus for the chinese economy. so these uncertainties really sparked another global sell-off. over in new york u.s. stocks suffered their third worst loss of the year. all indices dropped nearly 3%. even those that have nothing to do with china. it is sparked by emotion rather than an apparent reason. we need to see more clarity. so we really need to watch out for apple suppliers here in asia especially those inp jaen and taiw taiwan. >> a lot of those key component makers very interesting for apple there. looks like a lot more safe haven buying. tell us more about some of the pairs there. >> buying is definitely continuing as we can see with a rise in the yen. dollar/yen around 119.93 the yen also h

trading sessions, we rally over the concerns inflation is maybe headed back after vice chair stanley fisher suggested inflation maybe isn't that far away for the u.s. economy. it's hard to see real evidence of that in what's going on in the economy at the moment. the oil price slipping again. we also had a lot of concerns expressed about china. i'm sorry china is the topic that will take up much of trader's activities today. we had weak manufacturing numbers out of that economy today. we weaken the european session is. the outlook for your open is also weak at this point. we'll see what the big jobs number at the end of the week tells us. that will set direction and tone for fed meeting later in the movement. back to you. >> let's hope we have a better september. thanks. >>> stay ahead on "way too early." rgiii goes from starting quarterback to second string. hear what the coach says about his future with the team. >>> and the artist with the court sketch that didn't come close gives it another try. we'll see if she was able to get it right the second time around. >>> brace yourself. >> sur

. >> it will still be massively accommodate testify monetary policy here and abroad. >> stanley fisher raised interest rates at the bank of israel all the way above 3%, they have had to revaries course, take them down to 0.1%. how do you know that's not going to happen to us this time around? >> it could but it would give you a bullet to fire. we are out of bullets. q 3 ex opinioned e. pended every bullet in our who will officer. i'm a texan, i like to talk about bullets and who will officers. >> it also is important as to how they execute. do they move and then pause? do they move slowly? nobody i recall would advocate moving very steeply. >> right. >> so it will be gentle and it will be a slow slope and it may not be consequential meaning month after month in my opinion. >> the two-year note today, jeremy siegel said he thinks the markets are ready. >> the two year note was very interesting to watch today. >> what do you make that have price? >> it could be the unwinding of some trades but to me -- you never know, but it's signaling somewhat of an expectation. it didn't really affect

. >> i went to a charity event a couple years ago to honor stanley fisher.ntroduction, larry summers. larry summers saying this man taught me everything i know. this is the man who's right. this is the guy we talk to larry summers is on the exact opposite page as the stated stanley fisher -- the fish every we heard with steve liesman. i find this to be inconceivable that somehow the biggest hawk is alive with the biggest dove. there's some room here. maybe we get it done and fisher said we have to be on hold because the emerging markets can't handle it. i don't know. these two men are one in the same. they're twins. >> not anymore. i don't know -- we know what mr. fisher has said what we heard from him when he spoke to steve liesman a couple weeks back. larry summers, you want to call him now, he'll come on and tell you exactly. he wants the world to know -- >> you're telling me that maybe he would be the co-host? >> you can add summers to raskoff. >> summers is basically saying that the scenario that i'm most fearful of -- summers has been there. summers ha

stanley fisher, dennis lockhart and jon williams as well. in the dovish camp, janet yellen, william dudly and charles evans. cnbc has been speaking to the federal reserve presidents and their views on monetary policy. >> my preference is that we don't have the most telegraphed decisions as in 2004. data dependence is what we should be doing. >> from my perspective at this moment the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting less compelling than a few weeks ago. >> i have been talking about the normalization of rates for sometime. this week's events complicate the picture but i think it's too soon to say it fundamentally changes that picture. >> the economy is returning to normal. we're not sure we're there yet. >> we're ahead of the fed decision. xetra dax just a touch higher but a little bit of weakness elsewhere. big deal in the cable space with altice and friends buying cablevision. asian markets were in rally mode ahead of the fed. nikkei up, shanghai down. all eyes on the fed and that also applies to comm

stanley fisher despite the drop in oil prices still sees inflation improving in the near future. >> it's going to be a fascinating month so do get in touch with us. worldwide@cnbc.com is the e-mail. >> apple is hatching a plan to take on netflix but will it work? we'll discuss this after the break. don't go away. in the us, three in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift? the one with new responsibilities? one thing can't tell you, but the right combination can. universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom- some expect to cut dropout rates by twenty-five percent. ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. >> live pictures in budapest. authorities are stopping all trains from leaving the main train terminal in an effort to prevent migrants for using it to leave for austria and germany. those are the live pictures from budapest at the moment. now meantime in berlin angela merkel and the prime minister of spain are talking following

vice chairman stanley fisher, lockhart and williams. but in the dovish camp is janet yellen at the head of the table and also daniel, william dudley and charles evans. now in the weeks and months leading up to today cnbc has been speaking to some of the fed presidents about their views on monetary policy. >> my personal preference is that we don't have the most telegraphed policy decisions like we did in 2004. i do believe that at a at a dependence is what we should be doing. >> the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting is less compelling than a couple of weeks ago. >> i have been talking about the normalization of rates for sometime. this week's events complicate the picture but it's too soon to say it fundamentally changes that picture. in my own view the normalization process needs to begin and the economy is performing in a way it's prepared to take that. >> economy is returning to normal. we're not certain we're there yet. >> let's continue the debate with the global economist at fidelity global

when you did your interview with stanley fisher he opened the door to volatility being a factor in the decision. we've got the vix now above the ten-year average of 20 for 18 straight sessions now. the volatility today was to the upside. do you think that is still a volatility that the fed will factor in? >> i think it is. and the way i look at this. i look at the analog of the temper tantrum. they put forward the idea we were going to taper. the market didn't take it well. bernanke regrouped, like an army beaten in a battle and regrouped tried it again and it worked again after the initial signal in may. to the fed, a couple of months here and there to get this right and get the market on board and the volatility down -- i think first of all, it has been a long time since they raised rate. they have been at zero. no one has escaped the zero bound since the financial crisis. they will take a few months and get it right hopefully and do this in a way that doesn't create volatility above and beyond the kind of volatility that should be created with a slight rate hike. >> steve, good to s

she would like to raise interest rates and if you listen to stanley fisher they'll also give you a veryar answer because what they are saying right now, that is that they are -- they must believe in strong labor market and we have a strong labor market i will say in the u.s. and the second thing i have to believe in is that inflation now will start rising and they are saying that all of what we see happening right now they are just temporary factors. >> they didn't say that all along in 2015. are you pricing in a rate increase this year? and what does that mean when the rest of the world is cutting interest rates like india did today? >> that's a very interesting question. i think today monetary policy has been globalized. it's quite difficult for one big central bank to follow it's own path. so if you believe that the ecb will do more and i think that if you look at the inflation numbers and tomorrow you will have the euro zone inflation outcome, and i think we're going to have deflation within the euro area so it's more likely that we're going to have more stimulus within the euro are

. >> vice chairman stanley fisher did say he was watching market volatility.h the dow down more than 400 points, we look at the nasdaq 100. nearly half of those stocks are in correction territory. despite the hit today. one of the street's tech favorites is still up more than 100% this year. so far that stock and the trade on it next. >>> plus, it's twitter takeover time. pete najarian in charm of "halftime"'s account. i bet you got a lot of questions on the market sell-off. >>> welcome back to "the halftime report." i'm josh lipton. nearly 40% of the nasdaq 100 falling into bear market territory. let's look at three pig names. one would be apple, down nearly 20% from its 52-week high. one worry, of course, for investors, the tech giant generating about 25% of its sales from china. another name in the red, netflix, also off about 20% from its high. still up more than 100% so far this year. biggest gainer in the spx. similar story for amazon, down about 10% from its high. still well in the green year to date. mark nutrior of gray wolf says the stock looks vulne

. >> stanley fisher -- >> and israel. >> israel did it. >> he left and within a couple of months it wask down. all the way down ten basis points who we had on and who defended his moves. talking about it there. there's the euro at 113. quoting draghi. >>> all right. we have been waiting for the fed's big september meeting on interest rates. we've been talking about it a lot. during our squawk 20th anniversary kickoff last week two of the biggest hedge fund titans had differing views. here's what david tepper and bill ackman had to say. >> i'm not as bullish as i could. i have problems with earnings growth, i have problems with multiples. i have all kinds of problems. i can't call myself a bull. >> i'm a little more bullish than mr. tepper. i think the stock market on next year estimates is something less than 15 times earnings. >>> so which one is right? joining us to weigh in is jason trenner. he is with strategis partners and phil orlando. welcome. whose side would you take on this? more bullish, more bearish? >> i like ackman. the way we're looking at market is we've rolled forward t

to hike this year and what you hear from the rest of them is a repetition of the mantra that stanley fisherut to say, go out and say wore e're going to this year and keep that alive. i don't think it's alive. >> the note was that they were somehow unhappy with the message that was taken from the presser. you feel that way today? >> yes, i feel that way today. i think they're trying to get to back to the we're on target routine. they claim they're data dependent and some of the early data is not working for a rate hike. the housing numbers yesterday were not too particularly good. >> it could be yet that yellen and fisher are pulling them down a path where they know they won't raise rated this year and they fear the foul out is greater than a lot of them estimate and if they do liquidate and meltdown it will effect this economy. >> i thing you're right. i would phrase it a slightly different way. i think the reason they come back and keep pushing that we're going to raise this year is that if they admitted that, markets would say, my god, it is dreadful, isn't it? do i think they're lying to

things were looking weak because of anticipation that stanley fisher was signaling that the fed was going to be hiking in september. now, it looks like, now, maybe is it could be october or december. the key things for investors to watch is we are getting decent pmi data out of the euro zone and the united states as well. china is slowing. the real question is whether or not that is going to infect our markets. i really don't think it will. >> i'm not sure that is the real request he for many people. if the dow has dropped 30 points on stronger data. the obvious knee jerk read for that is that it makes an interest rate hike from the fed two weeks from today more likely given how marginal the calls are at the moment. what is your view on that? >> i agree with you. i think you are right. the strong ism data this morning suggests that perhaps the odds are favoring a september hike. look at the beige book yesterday. to me, that was signaling that actually it is not a done deal. that is going to be september. perhaps we are going to shift on the margins here, in the markets. plus or minus 30 p

. >> one of the odd things over the last couple months is stanley fisher's speech kind of indicated thaterhaps they were looking through some of the market volatility and focusing on their expectation repeated yesterday that inflation will come back up towards 2% and then this decision. i mean, do you think they know something about how weak the outlook is that -- that's changed in the last couple of weeks or the rest of the market does not? >> i don't think that they know anything more. they do good analysis but they get the same information we do. i think events are moving quickly ahead of jackson hole so he had a well-placed speech together, he didn't want to adjust it. what i would note about that speech is the only thing that he could cite that justified inflation rising was his confidence that it would. there wasn't anything that he pointed to to suggest that inflation was currently rising. so i think you could view that speech in more than one way. >> question for you, laura. final question. is there -- is it the fed's duty or do they have a role of leadership, should they be resp

this point based on the commitments, kind of verbal commitments that you've gotten from likes of stanley fisherave not heard from her since testified in front of congress in july, the headed of the new york fed you have to get nasty economic numbers between now, particularly with this jobs' report, not just before september meeting, but in the next couple months to back off. >> jobless claims numbers out labor department tomorrow we've got to ecb for a second mario draghi left interest rates unchanged .05% does he hint at more qe in press conference kicking off 25 minutes. >> draghi has been runt to stimulate. >> what are you talking about giant qe program, last year. >> yeah but thank you for finally coming to the table ecb took long enough. >> you are right, that is true, i mean for the long -- >> finally bytes the bullet. >> hike rates cut them a disaster i think what you can point to today you can say look the data is responding to the qe that we've provided therefore if we want data to get better i think they do not a totally conclusion -- >> a victory lap after the retail sales numbers. >

. >> they definitely must have had the train 5 year breakeven dipping below 1.09% markets stanley fisher be secular i do think that is broader debate we should have. >> one of the reasons markets did not like it seemed to not like it they liked to the -- they need to have compact -- when a find if labor market economy inflation one thing if volatility and financial markets what happens in china, that is a very important relevant but this is not part of it. >> the markets want clarity we're not having any more clarity. >> clarity is off the table after this last inaction, right? >> well, i think that the last speech of chairman yellen, chairperson yellen, tried to clarify better move it a little bit more you are right giving up -- >> think they raise in october. >> let me tell you when we meet next year who car is, the important thing is not -- the important thing is trajectory once you start very slow process let's not kid ourselves we are not talking about kicking the box it would be mistake to think that you have a rise of 25 base points we can go together to the beach -- it is a move

so if you listen to the fed speak, particularly stanley fisher, he talks about moving from an ultra accommodative stance to one that's still very accommodative but you're simply calibrating policy based off of the health of the economy. >> do you think they made their decision yet or is this something that gets decided in the room? >> it's a big debate. yesterday was probably really interesting and it continues to be a debate today. would love to have been a fly on the wall there. you do have. you have a pretty divided committee. you have those really in the hawkish camp that are convinced that the fed needs to see higher interest rates and those that are more dovish that are worried about inflation from abroad. >> what do you think? >> i think they hike rates today. it's a close call and tough call to make. the fed official versus to focus on the channels of contagion from china and emerging markets and when we list them out whether it's trade or financial linkages they're not all that great so i agree with michelle that the data will prevail. because if they don't raise rates they do risk quite

if you look at that over a six-month time frame and you think back to bill dudley, stanley fisher talkingo the market believes, and that's bill dudley. the what the dollar is telling us by being weaker is they don't believe all the tough talk, yeah, we're tightening, no matter what. they believe bill dudley who said, it's less compelling, we're in the throes of a cascading market. that's what the market thinks. they think if we go much further than here, the tightening will be taken off the table. what's going to happen is they won't talk about asset prices, obviously, but they have their cover. they'll say the situation could be deteriorating in china. makes it less compelling for us to tighten. >> why would the market be going down if people thought as has been evidenced so many times they don't have feet of clay? or is the market just making sure -- is the market -- you're saying the market is diabolical enough -- >> the market is easily diabolical enough to force that issue. we've seen things like the taper tantrum before. the market is not your friend. the market will force the issue

stanley and has run their european shop for years. she sees minimal inflation in the u.s., clearly a conundrum for vice chair fisher -- for vice chair stanley. you guys argue like cats and dogs, and you do not come to a consensus or one view. there is a number of nuances within it. how much is everybody on the same page in your new economic outlook? we have spent in a norm us amount of time to debate it internally, and i think with the baseline calling that the economy is ok -- yes, the economy is disappointing, but that's yes, the recovery is disappointing, but it is continuing. the gradual return of inflation to central-bank targets over the next 12 to 18 months is still what everybody is expecting. but that puts us at odds with markets, which are pricing in, in europe, much lower inflation rates for late 2016. within you see this ellen zentner's inflation or almost disinflation, a call for something that does not work? elga: i think there were a number of really interesting papers saying that the top academics are trying to grapple with the international influences with pricing behavior in the u.s. and also exchange rate movements, but a