represents one side and tom represents the other side my name is stanley tom i'm the trouble minister for a newcomer to this and comes recently i was selected to be a missionary ward in your will it's schoolteaching new entity there was a election dispute. in october on day 12. the new cars from council. somebody who works there. said we've never had to. hide a while. and it's an accident yes you were being accused of not having it use 8 to 9 years of election when we moved in we had election and all these i know it was coming up. and some of the smarter words began following the money and realizing some of the money's not accounted for while they actually suspended the elections. well once they suspended the elections though there was a there was a feeling that the community was being left out of the process yeah they were scheduled to leave in 2012. but through the division and the infighting and some of the you know bureaucratic issues the stalled as it stands now the federal government cannot. contract with either group so what they did was they basically

that is the view of mike wilson at morgan stanley. toma lot of different opinion in the equity market. we await earnings, including netflix later this afternoon. romaine bostick and the team in the afternoon with a lot of coverage of apple. right now, ben laidler has done it three times in a row. he has made a major bull market call and been right. holding court at hsbc for years and then onto different projects, we are thrilled ben laidler gives us the first interview with etoro israeli operation, it is big and digital and moving to the equity markets. he will provide global market strategy for etoro. can you reaffirm your very lonely double digit equity return for 2021? ben: i think so. i do not think it is a forecast anymore. i think it is a question of hanging onto what we have got, which is going to be pretty historic. we have had only twice in the last 50 years have we had this three in a row strong equity market. i think we do. valuations are high. earnings will keep surprising. i still think with these topline growth numbers being

stanley. lisa: i thing it's working. tom: let's do one more thought here before we get to mr. lson of morgan stanley. we will look at the data as well. you mentioned earlier this good news is continued good news from pfizer. the efficacy of what their research shows out six months, out a year. the fact is and continues. jonathan: that's the latest headline from the pfizer study. it looks like you can get the efficacy still with the south african variant. the numbers are fantastic on the vaccine front. tom: we thank all of you for listening and watching. yesterday, traffic off the road nationwide. derek jeter commenting on red sox pitching. we thank you all for your comments. lisa: the important news, tom. [laughter] tom: save me with a data check here. the vix, 18.44. jonathan: i'm going to try. i'm not going to be here the next couple of days. [laughter] i'll be gone in a couple of hours. in the bond market, on .754% -- bond market, 1.754%. a big dollar short position coming into 2021. euro-dollar up about 0.1%. tom: we want to make note within the schedule of this holiday wee

tom and 1st because it's tradition versus you know the new prostitution or majority way of thinking so you have that tremendous divide different philosophies together and stanley represents one side and tom represents the other so my name is totally calm i'm the troubled minister for a new car chris and cons are essentially you know it's like to be a. ward in your own school it's a new intake there was a election dispute. in october condit call. the new car traditional council. somebody who works there. said we've never had a. quite a while. and it's. nice you were being accused of not having a 2 night years of election we proved them wrong you had elected all these years i knew it was coming up. and some of the smarter words began following the money and realizing some of the money's not accounted for while they actually suspended the elections once they suspended the elections there was a there was a feeling that the community was being left out of the process yeah they were scheduled to leave in 2012. but through the division and the infighting and some of the you know bureaucratic issues the stalled as it stands now the federal government cannot. contract

what is the morgan stanley estimate on payrolls? tomnorth of 42 million and a lot of others catching up. 900,000 is common. there is a real shift in the last number of days. emails say let's lose the jargon. to be clear to you and our international audience, labor day is a holiday at the end of august into september. a great tradition. the tradition of labor day. jonathan: i have lived here for five or six years and tom talks to me like i've just arrived off the boat. you called me a foreigner and now you're telling me what labor day is. i appreciate that. super helpful. lisa: i will say this is going to be the question. this is completely ignoring that and moving forward. the idea of the supply demand dynamics and can we ramp up supplies too much? should i keep going? jonathan: you can. lisa: you think it will take years before people get into the studio with us? jonathan: what do i know? lisa: wait to put it out there. jonathan: coming up, the man who know something about apple, the big bull on wall street. looking for a 185 on apple.

michael kushma, morgan stanley fixed income cio. tom: after the gloom of the weekend, -.81 to -.79. what you see with coca-cola and harley-davidson. a discrete, smaller story related to motorcycles around the world and america. i'm sorry, when you shift your revenue estimate from 22% up to 32.5%, that dynamic gets your attention. jonathan: raising the outlook on a better 2021. how often have you seen that? lisa: i am struggling. i know that you'll find me for being a debbie downer but i'm struggling to allow companies piling on debt for low cost, keeping them alive for longer. what does it do down the line? have we prolonged a credit default cycle? is this something that we will feel at a later date? is the fed a part of the fundamentals in terms of swooping in and saving credit markets, if everything goes south? jonathan: let's think about where the dollar has gone so far. we mentioned last week the amount that has gone to refinancing here to date. 72% of high-yield issuance has gone to refinancing. these balance sheets probably look better, not worse, pushing out the maturity of t

tom keene off today. morgan stanley the last big bank out of the gate today, and that is it. we wrap up the numbers, but another discussion about archegos. lisa: the question here, risk management. what are the practices entrenched in a bank, and what does that mean for potential execution going forward? it really is all forward-looking. that is what i expect on the questions in the call, what kind of risk management implementation they have. jonathan: here's the statement this morning. the current quarter includes a loss remitted to beschloss related to a -- includes a loss related to a single client. it is guess who? i think we know who. lisa: the question is, how anymore archegoses are there? is it idiosyncratic? drink. with these drink and games, are they always an excuse to drink? jonathan: always an excuse to drink. [laughter] i've got a good friend with a bowtie who's in bed drinking, watching this. i'm sure he's enjoying a beverage of his choice, let me tell you. let's get to the price action this friday morning. wrapping up a really long week for many of you on wall

tom: where is morgan stanley on esg in america?our months ago, our president conflated his hairspray with the ozone hole in the antarctic. how does morgan stanley see the united states advancing forward on esg as we come out of that statement five years ago? andrew: i think you mentioned a key point that this issue of commitment is an unknown question. politics can change rapidly. we have seen that in the u.s. it could change again. some of this is a question of where are the economics. one thing that is very important in the utilities space is the economics of going green are very good. it is not just the environmental right thing to do. it is often the right thing to do from a business perspective. that makes it very sticky. that means you are not counting on the political winds, that you also have this other incentive driver behind it. so the shifts to electric vehicles are not just about consumer preferences for green cars. they are about the economics, the improved economics of some of those ev's and autonomous vehicles. so wh

will be catching up with andrew sheets, morgan stanley chief process -- morgan stanley chief cross asset strategist. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden will pledge to cut u.s. greenhouse gas emissions in half 2030. that nearly doubles the commitment made under former president obama that was later scrapped by former president trump. president biden welcome being -- biden will convene 40 world leaders. more fallout from the implosion of a kinko's capital -- of archegos capital. the swiss regulator is asked credit suisse to add more than $2 billion of capital. we talked with credit suisse ceo thomas gottstein. >> we are all responsible for what happened. it is now our job to take credit suisse to the next level. as i said, we have a lot of good elements in this first quarter we can build on, and together with the board of directors, we are doing this investigation, and we will build on that. ritika: meanwhile, swiss regulators are starting enforcement proceedings against credit suisse. jo

dan skelly, morgan stanley wealth management head of market research and strategy. tomyou can do this on the bloomberg, folks. we have this huge advantage, we feel, within the financial tv worldwide and radio worldwide. if apple got back to where they were on their balance sheet of cash, they need to find how to spend $25 billion fast. jonathan: i think they know the best way of doing that because we have seen that repeatedly over the last several years. jonathan: -- tom: that is a huge number. they need to figure out a delta of $25 billion today to figure out how to get back to a comfortable cash raise. jonathan: do you want another big number from morgan stanley? you brought up payrolls a little bit earlier. payrolls, 1.2 5 million dollars is their estimate. right now, the median, $900,000. tom: this is so important. we are going out to michael feroli, we will find 7 million employed over the summer. lisa: does this count for jay powell? bully address that? -- will he address that? jonathan: we will figure that out later today. equity futures unchanged on the s&p. he

stanley doing some good work on this. the shape of the cycle, willoughby shorter, willoughby hotter, will they be different than the previous 10 years? tom years ago we had morgan stanley talking about shorter. i do want to note blackrock out with earnings. we will not dive into it but it is stellar. what i notice is the concept of total blackrock and underestimated their. the regional exposure is booming. jonathan: it is been booming for a long, long time. the inflows have been phenomenal. i caught up with bank of america earlier and they said the equity when flows in the now -- the less five-month have been greater and the whole of the last 12 years. can you get your head around that? tom: you can't get your head around this. we are in a boom. there are shadows of 1947, 1940 eight, but they are shadows. let's go over to geopolitics. bloomberg sanctions reporter. jack, there are topics but only one front and center. it goes down to a single headline that the kremlin suggest they will not back off from the eastern border of ukraine even with the sanctions we may see today. tell us about the linkage of sanctions to the tensions in ukraine

tom: would the swiss government allow morgan stanley to acquire credit suisse? sure that would be possible from a technical standpoint, just in terms of -- well, perhaps possible, but in terms of the systemic risk and the size of that organization, it would get regulatory tension from all areas -- regulatory attention from all areas. but i think morgan stanley likes to be a buyer, and they have two very big executions they are working on right now, so their plate is a bit full. but they have really been focused on u.s. business, whereas credit suisse has been focused more on asia and the international market. tom: alison williams, thank you so much, with bloomberg intelligence, here on credit suisse and how it doubles into american banks. you just wonder where the next cockroaches. lisa: you talk about how this is not isolated. scott minerd of guggenheim came on yesterday and said it almost feels inevitable or likely that we are going to see another archegos situation due to the amount of leverage in the system and due to the fact that people are taking excessiv

tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. two hours to go. coming up, mike wilson, morgan stanley chief u.s. equity strategist. til what? jonathan: this is my personal account. [laughter] tom: the city is cold and empty. no one is around to judge me. jonathan: that's a good song, isn't it? that's what i was up for, you singing. equities up on the nasdaq. this is bloomberg. ♪ want your workout to be easier, more effective, and more convenient? then you should try aerotrainer by golo. the new full body workout that you can do at home or anywhere. it's great for planks, squats, core, and glutes. you'll strengthen and tone muscles, relieve back pain, and reduce stress. it's also great for yoga and pilates. get noticeable results in just ten minutes a day. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to workout. look at me. it works 100%. (host) all of this is a $300 value, but through this special offer, you can get the entire aerotrainer system for just four easy payments of $19.95. and if you order today, we'll also include free shipping. still not sure? then we're eliminating the risk. try the aerotrainer in your home for

tom: thank you so much. stephen roach helping to invent modern market economics at morgan stanley years ago. that leads us to the desk of robert mundell. this is a huge deal. you go from roach and the others, back to jacob franco of chicago, to the true founding father of modern foreign-exchange. robert mundell is the most interesting guy. hugely controversial at columbia. he was a great friend of this program, he will be missed. robert mundell at 88 years old led a vigorous life at no more than the foundation of foreign-exchange. good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: a tough day at christmas. -- a tough day at credit suisse. plus, two top executives will be replaced after scandals raise questions about risk management. the head and chief risk officer are leaving credit suisse. president biden's economic agenda cap just -- just got a boost. it has to do with a process called budget reconciliation which bypasses the 60 vote rule required to pass legislation in the senate. bloomberg has learned that the central bank of china has offered major lenders to cut out loan growth for the rest of t

tom: microsoft didn't do all that shabby as well as -- though not as well as google. stanley black & decker, you mentioned 3m yesterday and they are raising their organic revenue growth. they see organic revenue growth. 11% to 13% for the entire year. this is a company that makes drills. tom: -- jonathan: have you ever used one of them? tom: i was like can you come up and fix this. jonathan: i bought some black & decker's. tom: could i see you at like 3:30, thank you. jonathan: we are both familiar with the heritage and unfamiliar with the product. citi global head of investment joining us now. let's talk about the key discussion. the best way, the cleanest way to get exposure, a durable exposure to a better american economy? >> i want to be tom's repair man. this is a pretty extraordinary time and you hit upon a couple of themes. incredible revenue growth for technology companies and the benefit of course to their stocks. that's what's benefiting the economy. it's incredible efficiency and flexibility of companies, a and u.s. companies. using the great example, the idea of w

tom: you wonder about twitter this afternoon. what we are trying to do, trying to say at all as you mention ford motor, stanley black & decker yesterday. we are talking ipad, iphone and all that. how about double digit dummy vitamin growth -- double-digit gummy vitamin growth? it is a general lift and expectations across a lot of products away from the fancy stuff the business media is totally focused on. jonathan: everyone is going to talk about peak growth because it can't get much better than this. this cycle is so unique, and that's why i wonder whether the concept of growth -- of peak growth is even relevant. you have a reopening that delivers a mechanical year on year rip like the one we are seeing in corporate america right now and the general economy, can you really use peak growth is a concept in this cycle? tom: you can't, and i'm going to go back to corporate officers adapt to the cards they are dealt, and that's always the way it is. lisa: it depends on the company. if you are talking about facebook, one thing that is clear is that some of the pandemic habits are persistent. we are seeing that with apple, seeing that with

tom: i think ted lasso is on the short list. he is an american. what are you watching this week in the economic data and bond data? look at the bond offering from morgan stanley: the banks have been flooding the market. people think to raise capital due to the tightening in certain restrictions. basically they cannot use their treasury holdings, cannot exempt them from their capital requirements. tom: they are all going back to the trough. on politics, former senior advisor to president obama, valerie jarrett, look for that on bloomberg. futures at negative eight, now futures -50. the vix still well under 20. bitcoin in the vicinity of 57,000. this is bloomberg radio and television. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh

tom: i am in that camp. lisa: i would agree as welllisa: . jonathan: dan skelly, morgan stanleyto agree on something. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> if things normalize, we are going to see a shift back towards services, and that means taking some of the pressure off the goods sector. >> the mentor liquid at the out there, for trillion dollars plus in money markets, saving rates near all-time highs, all of these bode well for the architect. >> this is all reopening, fiscal stimulus. how much does behavior change? >> there will be i think temporary inflation over the next 12 to 18 months. >> long-term big picture, the fed has a long track record

stanley focused on execution. we seen that from procter & gamble, whirlpool, kimberly-clark, coca-cola, all talking about passing on higher costs. tomi know you are riveted by this. i get emotional as well, ken's 60th birthday over at mattel. jonathan: happy birthday ken. who thought this is where we would be, talking about a 60th birthday for ken with tom keene? lisa: i'm just going to hope that's transitory. jonathan: it's not. it's permanent. [laughter] tom: in honor of the astronauts, tang today. lisa: i will say this, just talking about earnings. there's been a really interesting development, in my opinion. you have seen really good earnings on average. some misses, but honestly, for the most part it's been great, and the response in markets has been meh, what have you got for us next time. that's been fascinating. what is driving the market action we have seen recently? but is frankly, the data has justified what we have seen. jonathan: i agree, it is captured by the bond market. your bond market on tens, 1.5454%. this is the third week of gains for treasuries. the third week of yields moving lower over the week. euro-dollar,

stanley. execution risk. with the quarterly earnings about the outlook, that earnings people expect, or will it be about labor costs, margins? tom: it will be about listening to the conference calls. and i will say the conference calls are more important than they have ever been. what is the guidance linking towards inflation on the cost pressures? jonathan: big week ahead, but seriously, big week ahead. and very excited to see lisa abramowicz. inflation, retail sales, and earnings on deck. lisa: powell really has a narrow window. we will get that are economic data, better inflation reads, or worse, depending on whether you are paying for higher prices. at what point in the year -- later in the year, june, july, august, the year-over-year comps get more complicated, but people are already projecting a 2023 that is much better. jonathan: looking at this year ahead a really complicated week. to kick things off this morning, good morning. the s&p 500, three straight weeks of gains. 4100. all-time highs. futures down negative 2/10 of 1%. 1.65 on tens right now. vaccinations in america tremendous. i will go through the numbers later

stanley is trying to get to. this is the execution risk. it is your ability to meet that demand. that is a difficult equation right now. tom: it is sector to sector. well said. what is so important here is the new tone of active management. it is not what you do do, but avoiding the minefield, seems to be the theme. i don't think the minefields are microsoft or google or apple or amazon. they are going to have margins that are pretty good. jonathan: coming up, a little bit more cautious. we are going to follow up on that in the next hour. equity futures up on the s&p. the bond market up one basis point to 158. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden is expected to sign an executive order that would raise the minimum wage for contractors to $15 an hour. it is currently $10.95. it will start next january. the latest census figures are good news for republicans. texas will gain two seats in the house under the new numbers. states in the northeast and midwest will lose seven seats in a shift of political cloud to were struggling -- in a shift of political clout. americans may s

stanley. this is going to affect different companies differently, just to state the obvious. it is going to be important to see who can meet that bigger demand. tomit is about hiring the marginal unit worker. right now, where i sit, that is the theme for the next 200 days. where do you find the next worker? jonathan: and labor costs are going up. lisa: really, they are being spurred up by the $15 minimum wage proposal by president biden this morning, an executive order for contractors with the federal government. you do wonder how much staying power this has. does it count as, should i say it, transitory? where's tom? is he drinking? jonathan: do you think the news conference is interesting tomorrow? lisa: i think it will be fascinating. jonathan: i don't think policy changes in any way, shape or form. i just think the conversation changes, and they have to respond to that. coming up, bank lumbar oda -- banque lombard odier's head of fx strategy. [indiscernible] [laughter] jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still n

tom: so much of this is guesstimating the first and second derivative of yields and the rate. i am absolutely fascinated when you synthesize morgan stanley income if you are focused on the first or second derivative. is the fed focused on a longer x-axis, or are they worried about acceleration in 2021 of yield? matthew: they are thinking about the medium to long-term. they've got two issues front and center on their plate. one of course is the labor market, and the second is inflation. i think the way they are looking at inflation, it is a much longer-term issue for them. they are not necessarily worried about, and the labor market to maximum employment. they have seen that the economy can turn out jobs if left to its own devices over time. the real issue for them in the medium to long-term is the inflation pass, and that is not something they are particularly concerned about at the present moment. they don't need to see inflation get to do percent today. they needed ash get to 2% today -- get to do percent today -- get to 2% today. jonathan: matt hornbach, good to catch up as always. looking for retail sales 4.9% on thursday. that data

tom: that is on the international front. the imf meetings, the international meetings, we will have full coverage for you this week. futures up 23. michael kuchma of morgan stanleyn the 8:00 hour. stay with us on radio him on television. this is -- on radio, on television. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. republicans may be willing to support a much smaller infrastructure bill than president biden is proposing. senator roy blunt says he could see bipartisan support for roads and other items only if the administration cuts back the proposal by 2/3. the u.s. is moving ahead with plans to retaliate against attacks against companies like amazon and facebook. shares of gamestop falling premarket. that is the videogame retail chain that says it will sell up to 3.5 million shares in and out the market offering. gamestop is the roller coaster stock that has been championed by reddit traders. jordan says it has uncovered a plot to destabilize the kingdom. the former crown prince has reportedly worked with unnamed entities and is under house arrest. an executive shakeup may be on the way at credit suisse. bloomberg has learned the swi