if there was some kind of statistic superhero, i have in mind sick sigma man. this is when he or should would have swooped into the schlitz corporate headquarters and give the denails of the a trial. the key of the experiment is we have a fixed number of trials, 100 taste tester-s -- each with two possible you cans, schlitz or michelob and the probability of success is the same in each trial. i'm assume egg the probable of picking one beer over the other is 50% and i'm defining success as the tester picking schlitz. we also assume the trials are independent. one decision has no impact on any other taste tester. with only this information, a statistical superhero can calculate the probability of all the different outcomes for the hundred trials. those of us who are not statistical superheroes can use a computer to do the same thing. the chances of all 100 taste testers picking michelob were -- anyone want to take a guess? the number is too a big. it's one with -- about 27 numbers after it. you're more likely to get hit by an asteroid while watching the trial. mo

those of us are not statistical superheroes came get a computer to do the same thing. the chances of all 100 taste testers picking michelob were, does anyone want to take a guess? this number is to be. it's one with, about 27 numbers after it. essentially you're more likely to get hit by an asteroid while watching a trial. more important, the same basic calculations can give us the probability for a range of outcomes such as the chances that your than 40 of the taste testers take schlitz. these numbers would clearly have assuaged this schlitz marketing folks. let's assume schlitz would've in place if at at least 40 of the 100 schlitz. an impressive number. remember, given that all the men taking the live blind taste test, i think tha they're all m, have professed to be michelob drinkers. and out, at least that good was highly likely. if the. test really is like the flip of the coin. the basic probability tells us that there was a 98% chance that at least 40 of the taste testers would pick a schlitz. and 86% chance that at least 45 of the taste testers would. in theory

with only disinformation a statistical superhero king chow kit the probability of all outcomes for the 100 trials. 52 schlitz salacious 42 minutes alone. we could use a computer to do the same thing the chances of all when hundred baking mix low were, take a guess? it is at the number one with 27 members after you're more likely to be hit by an asteroid watching the trial. picking give accumulative probability they clearly would assuage the fears. but assume schlitz would be happy if 40 at of 100 would pick schlitz impressive with the bond -- blind taste test profess to be in the globe drinkers it was that good of the beer test is like a flip of a coin that basic probability tells us a 90% chance they would pick schlitz 86% 45 would this was not risky at all. anybody guess what happened? [laughter] halftime 1981 exactly 50% of the middle of drinkers chose schlitz. probability -- probability is a remarkable tool and many leading ears were indistinguishable from one another. [laughter] that should make you encourage about the power probability and statistics. now i will make you scared.