me right now to look at the economic data and what is ahead is the president of macro-mavin stephanie pomboy and founder of bear trap report, larry mcdonald. thank you both for being here. give us your assessment of this jobs report, stephanie. kick us off. this was obviously better than most people expected. >> yeah, and very surprising number. i mean, so strong that it kind of makes you suspicion about what really was going on there. i would point out the nonseasonly adjusted number in the line is a decline. it indicates the challenges the bls has in terms of measuring month to month changing in employment and seasonal factors will adjust that. we'll see what happens on revision here, but i think the real take away here is that obviously we're dealing with a tight labor market but a lot of this is very lagging indicators. i mean, indicater other than payroll line is a real decline in activity whether small business hiring, ism surveys, regional fed surveys, consumer confidence indications on the job outlook have soured, but the number one input as you know, maria, and i've been talking abo

i will ask stephanie pomboy. president biden's spending colossus will not help with climate change or. michael saylor his firm has taken a one billion dollar hit on bitcoin. we never take pleasure in misfortune of others. when i was growing up there was something called justice. my take on robinhood's struggles. that and so much more on "making money." ♪ charles: so the market opened higher and then it was still a little bit guarded as some data came in. actually the data this morning was better than expected. there is a sense that the fed policy is changing and ever changing. here is the thing. the revolt at the federal reserve, it is in full effect, folks and what is really interesting about it the doves are laying it on thick. yesterday that is what sent the market lower but today the defacto chairman of the fed, james bullard, taking the middle ground, right? sort of saying a soft landing is still possible. now sans the fed drama the market wants to move higher. earnings misses have been rewarded. folks on th

terms of pressure being put, on working men and women in this country this is straight from the stephanie pomboy, massively ahead of cpi consumer prices, up which was 9 1/2%, still the worst since 1970s shows you companies are not able to pass on the wholesale inflation they are experiencing. and so that is bad for margins i don't know what people in the markets are celebrating but not paying attention to the fundamentals of businesses that are also suffering along with consumers from this still runaway inflation. maria: well, you know, i think that this market for awhile was betting the fed is going to blink, okay? look, mark, when you have massive responses to interest rates up 75 basis points, people say well. maybe the fed will see the response from markets, and change direction, that is not what is happening. it doesn't look like fed is going to blink, but what do you attribute this huge rally in stocks since end of june mark. mark: the interesting thing i am watching bond market, the stock market one has it right the other has it wrong, because the stock market has been rallying, but if i

want to bring in macro mavens founder and president, stephanie pomboy.here are a lot of signs of recession. one i thought was intriguing i saw other day i want to share with the audience. conference board consumer expectations versus current conditions. every time it has gotten to a bottom historically, this blue line, folks as you may know is recessions. so it has happened every single time on the eve of a recession. look where it is right now. this suggests we're either, really close to recession or maybe even in one. what do you think? >> there is -- [inaudible]. confidence measures university of michigan sentiment survey signaling recession for months and it has taken the conference board measure a little time to catch up which is actually very typical of those two measures. you find that this university of michigan survey always leads an economic turning points. i'm not sure why but it has a reliable tendency to do so but clearly consumers are getting squeezed hard. charles: right. >> real disposable income is as negative as it has been since the 19

22 minutes from now, and we get a check on state of the consumer with macromavens president stephanie pomboy. i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. between the high interest, the fees... i felt trapped. debt, debt, debt. so i broke up with my credit card debt and consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. i finally feel like a grown-up. break up with bad credit card debt. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. go to sofi.com to view your rate. sofi. get your money right. ♪ it's time for the biggest sale of the year, on the sleep number 360 smart bed. it senses your movements and automatically adjusts to keep you both comfortable. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. all smart beds are on sale. save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. only for a limited time. >>. >> futures down across the board, as we get retail sales for last month at the bottom of the hour. we are -- earlier chel was reporting earnings from target lowe's and tjx companies mixed res

sinema wants so that they get that -- they got 50 and want kamala harris to be the deciding vote stephanie pomboytend jackson hole event chase the topic there? and what do you think, you are going to be focused on as we watch a market focused on federal reserve likely continuing these aggressive hikes? >> well i think this is going to be the debate, push and pull between markets and fed where markets seem convinced they are going to pivot the question is -- and fed is continuing to try to disabuse some notion, nester came out yesterday once we stop holding rates at that level a while i am sure was a wake-up call for the markets that they were ready to hear it or not. but i think that the issue, that is the things the fed is focused oning the relyinged employment numbers very sticky inflation numbers mostly because of back as if you pardon expression energy policy making them hold rates higher longer the markets i think going to be very disappointed we will see what comes out of jackson hole that is kind of what i think is coming down the pike i would add in near-term, in addition to headwind of p

and stephanie pomboy pointed out on friday as she has in the past that the fed, if it's watching employmentloyment rate, that is the laggingest of indicators and that's very tricky. but the fed in the past has just dove right in to bail out investors who of are upset about their asset price declines. >> yes. i know. you have to wonder how much longer can this happen as we watch our debt continue to grow and grow as it's -- and the fed balance sheet too. don't forget, they're not just raising interest rates. they're also going to attempt a quantitative tightening where they're shrinking the balance sheet which they've done by 10 times in the past several years. that's a mystery how that's all going to play out. i think we're really heading into very, very rocky waters here and i don't know, we're very defensive at federated hermes. we have more cash congestion than we've had for as long as i can remember and we're just suggesting defensive value. you're going to look at the tech stocks where i think as much as they did in the month of july and that is true but they were so badly hit before.

maria: i think a good point stephanie pomboy points out even though he we've seen, four times in fed talk about that a moment you are talking 31 trillion in debt right now u.s. faces agency rates go higher, the cost of carrying that debt goes higher. >> it does you and i talked about this before i think fed in back of mind knows there is some you were limit how much they can raise rates because largeest borrower in in the world is federal reserve can't do what they did in 70s, 80s, the frl would be out of business, but i want to -- the numbers you are seeing, the top line, core inflation level out only two with ways that can happen, nation is coming down, inflation is supply and demand of goods means even supply of goods coming up or demand for goods is going down i think you are seeing that in gasoline, gasoline is down now i think, high 5 dollars a gallonure four not increase in supply it is a decrease in demand the thing i look at most food at home lup almost 11% you can change driving habitats you have to feed family demand can't be destroyed there still significant inflation num