stephanie roth is a senior markets analyst at jp morgan bank. it is nice to have you with us. you have the uncertainty tied to the china story. cameron was talking about the potential for more corporate weakness on the profit side. in terms of the bigger question that a lot of market participants are wondering now, do we have a recession, what kind of recession could we potentially be looking at? how are you navigating those right now? stephanie: toward the end of the year, as we are looking at our outlooks, we expect a recession in the middle part of next year. we do not think it will be a financial crisis, but a run-of-the-mill type of recession. we are starting to see signs of layoffs, but we believe that could be a bigger trend. it is looking ok for the holiday season, but we do see heavy discounting. companies are worried about excess inventories. they are trying to get rid of what they have because of concerns of what is looming ahead. we think tougher times might be in the beginning part of next year and especially toward the middle part, then toward your end. we will p