stephen stanley with us from pierpont. nx is on the backside. statistic. so much seems to be an adjustment in trade. his general world trade down? stephen: yes. i think the biggest flow in terms of trade is the fact that companies are trying to get ahead of the tariffs toward the end of last year. tom: a frontloaded the growth. stephen: that led to a significant deterioration in our trade balance because imports were rushing in, in the second half of last year. depending on how things play out, there is a chance the export piece is positive in 2019. tom: give us the scope and scale percentage point. is it 2.4 or 2.0? what is the dynamic? stephen: net exports can be a be determinant but it can plus or minus a half percent pretty easily. francine: i know you are pushing back against market consensus that the fed can act once or twice. if there was something in the u.s. economy that would turn ugly, where would you see it in the data? stephen: i would be most worried about business investment. amount of tremendous policy with the shutdown in trade

i love the conversations with stephen stanley today. the weighting of trade at plus percent of gdp.ining us right now is laura rogers, senior economist. and the head of u.s. rate strategist -- strategy. let's start here. communications, the fed has a tricky line to toe here. it will be pretty complicated and pretty delicate to be able to communicate something but not too much to panic investors. laura: right. first of all, there is not a whole lot of new information the it has give us, because limited visibility in the economy right now. almost all releases have been halted. due to the government shutdown. first and foremost, i think there is going to be very few changes in that first paragraph. they are not going to tell us much. tom: we have friday unemployment. do they know the job numbers for friday? laura: no. i don't think so. tom: they don't like, slipping under the door? laura: i think that would be too early. tom: there is a real mystery to this. scarlet: there is. let's bring in our other guest. when it comes to economic data, a lot of people, and tom alluded to this, feel

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let's get back to the morgan stanley 2019 investment conference. stephenwas a man who runs that fund. stephen: the company you are talking about is a capital partner and we have the cofounder and managing director, andrew west, with us here. thanks so much for joining us. about a 30% gain last year with many, many hedge funds that did not do so well. what was the secret to your thoughts? -- sauce? andrew: last year was one of those years where you needed to have your ear to the ground, to see what was changing. the macro cycle showed what was happening out there. we were early to identify slowdown capital investment cycles, early to identify the slowdown in tech. we saw what happened during the year. and we were early to get on top of some trade on the long side in companies with very strong, stable profit margins. stephen: on the short end, you really did well with the japanese factory automation a down, which was in cycle as far as. do you see that continuing? -- as far as capex. do you see that continuing? andrew: there is a lot of uncertainty. that is

alix: thank you, stephen byrd of morgan stanley, great to talk to you.auto industry challenges. creede's autoelle executive analyst and david's big interview is coming up. we will go to the floor of the nyse with mary barra, gm's ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ we are moments away from david's interview with the general motors ceo mary barra at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. there they are, talking gossip. there is a lot of news from the oil industry. ford and jaguar announcing job cuts, and signaling enormous challenges and the former nissan ceo fighting for his reputation. with all of that, the government battles, ongoing trade there are a lot of potholes ahead for the industry. to help us make sense is michelle creede from auto trader.com and executive analyst from detroit. walk us through what the overarching issue is for the auto industry this year. michelle: well, this year and going forward, the audit industry needs -- the auto industry needs to focus on today's business and generate as much profit as they can and invest in the future for general motors is the

hong kong is hosting the morgan stanley 2019 annual global outlook investment conference. stephenhat is on the agenda? reporter: our next guest is going to be giving the opening address. this is his conference here in hong kong. he is it -- he is vincent chui. you are the head of asia-pacific for wealth management at morgan stanley. thank you for joining us. we did have the morgan stanley results overnight and wealth management did not perform that well, but it has been a volatile and choppy market in 2018. one of the biggest sources of newly minted millionaires and billionaires, china, has hit a bit of a speedbump. what is the outlook for 2019? >> good morning. thank you for having me here with you this morning. global and asia trade and vitamin to will be -- environment will be volatile. in this kind of volatile , we need advice and suggestions, good products, to manage assets, restructure assets, to navigate the market environment so that we are well-placed to help them. reporter: how do you see the market volatility that was exacerbated by the trade war, which is still ongoing

you should get behind biotechs morgan stanley with three picks they're telling you to buy now >>> and superstar analyst stephenout ge again. the bulls aren't going to like it new buys and sells from bill nyegren and jim cramer all of that when halftime report starts at the top of the hour. carl, i will send it back to you. >> that's a show, brian. see you in a few. >>> let's go to the cme for the santelli exchange. >> good morning, carl. welcome my first guest of the week as we were talking off camera, the real issue is there seems to be something missing we know there's not a systemic issue slowing the economy, but we are slowing globally. we don't seem to be going back up to 3% growth. what is it that is our impediment, do you think >> i think the first thing, what's still there is consumer spending consumer spending with and without auto, 4% type of growth rates in retail sales. what is missing and has been is acceleration of capital spending from mid single digits to something higher that gets us and keeps us above 3% growth levels the capital rates spending, it is muted, there's concern of trade and what

harold booked a room at the stanley, a historic beautiful hotel in estes park. >> reporter: famous for inspiring stepheng's "the shining. >> reporter: he scheduled an early dinner so they could turn in early it was a romantic weekend, after all. then saturday afternoon, they set out for rocky mountain national park to go on a hiking trail harold had scouted out a few months earlier but just about 24 hours in, the perfect weekend turned tragic. >> 911, what's the address of your emergency >> hello, my name is harold henthorn, and i'm in the rocky mountain national park >> okay. >> i need an alpine mountain rescue team immediately. >> reporter: it was just before 6:00 and harold needed help urgently >> my wife has fallen from a rock on the north summit of deer mountain on the deer mountain trail and she's in really critical condition. >> reporter: harold told the 911 operator that toni had fallen from the edge of a cliff >> we need to be sure that you know my location first i have really bad cell coverage. >> okay. >> okay. i'm on deer mountain >> reporter: immediately, the park launched a ranger who was