santander chief economist stephen stanley. as we focus on central banks, we heard earlier from the ecb president christine lagarde. she outlined what she needs to see to adjust the bank's right path. >> the essential question is what do we need to see? what do they need to see is the question i occasionally see. what do we need to see to become sufficiently confident to start dialing back our restrictive policy stance? put simply, we need to move further along the disinflationary path. ♪ katie: this is bloomberg markets. boeing is forecasting a massive cash drain for the first quarter. the aircraft manufacturing more regulatory scrutiny and slower output of its 737 max following the january incident where a piece of fuselage known as a door plug blew out in midair. joining us with more from princeton, new jersey is a senior aerospace defense and airline analyst for bloomberg intelligence. you take a look at boeing's stock today. it seems like bad news but the stock is up 2.5%. walk us through this reaction relative to what we

>> stephen stanley of santander right on track.ation is headed in the right direction, it may not call to the satisfaction until later in the year. market expectations for the timing and magnitude of that cuts are too aggressive. i expect rates reduced by 50 basis points beginning in the fourth quarter after the election. good morning. do you think the federal reserve dot plot might move your way next week, or is that too soon? >> i think it's a little too soon. you listen carefully to the fed officials and they don't seem to have changed their fundamentally since december. i think they are probably believed that the market has come back in closer alignment with where they are. jonathan: the fed is in a quiet period right now so we can't get the reaction till next week. just tease out what is going to go into pce and whether they can take any comfort whatsoever from what happened yesterday. >> a little bit. january can be with the worst-case scenario because the numbers were very high in the aggregate but it was the noisy stuff tha

annmarie: i think back to what stephen stanley had to tell us and reiterated yesterday, that he willvictory just yet, but no cuts until after the u.s. election. the fed wants to cut, the data is not there. annmarie: stephen stanley, they will wait until after the election, nobody else is on board with that. they will cut 100 basis points going into the u.s. election? that is quite a call. lisa: i was struggling with all of the fed prognostications because that cristobal is looking cracked and cloudy and difficult for everybody. they want to cut. the problem is the data is not cooperating. jonathan: june feels stale and highly convenient. it is far enough out to say things are going to change between now and then and we will give the face to cut interest rates. it feels stale based on the data. lisa: basically we are dealing with people you're trying to push out the timeline before they get conviction. right now we are not getting any conviction. jonathan: we have had to change our view sony times. we should stick with our view and then in june everything will change. coming up next,

stephen stanley is a soft landing guy. >> metaphorically and physically. >>> so as wall street trieso predict what the fed will do next, how should you position your portfolio? let's bring in jim tyranny, cio concentrated u.s. growth within alliance bernstein. thank you for being here. so let's start there. how should you be positioning your portfolio? >> if we do believe in higher for longer and a stronger economy, i think you have to start thinking outside of ai, who can benefit from that reality? there are a bunch of companies that are benefitting from it and will continue and they really haven't been recognized in the market yet. so, i think there's a real opportunity. >> like what? >> one is adp. when you look at adp, a significant portion of their growth over the next couple years will come from float income with average duration of their portfolio over three years, it takes time for that portfolio to reprice higher in terms of the securities. when that happens, that's almost 100% margin dollars thatfall to the bottom line. so that's a great opportunity. >> in terms of the pote