steve cohn obviously loved this painting. if you look at the broader art market in general, it actually had a flat to slightly down year last year, where stocks do better. we're talking about over long-term here, once again proves that some paintings are very good long-term investments. >> and is there any rhyme or reason to which paintings are just so valuable? >> it's dead artists, because you can't -- >> but there are a lot of dead artists. >> dead artists are good, but it is basically top examples of top artists. and there are very few of those. it's got to be the right painting from the right year of the right artist. and by nature, those are going to be rare. so we're not talking about the broad market going up that much, but those are the prerequisites for a blockbuster. >> robert, what is steve's track record in terms of art as an investment? has he bought some great pieces, resold them at a premium? >> he hasn't sold much. he bought the pickled chart while he was running. the damon hearst piece, which rereplar replac

it was sold for $155 million to steve cohn of sac who's got some legal issues, but still likes to collectpainting and its escalation price over time to the s&p, maybe we have that chart, there it is. le

cohn, thank you very much. >> sue? >> now to the cnbc exclusive fed survey and it deals with the "r" word, recession. steve liesman has more details on that. hi, steve. >> thanks very much, sue. we're here with the growth forecast from our 54 respondents. first i'll show you what the gdp -- i guess we're going to do the recession here first. you can see back in september 2011, when we're dealing with debt ceiling, the probability of recession by this group, 36%, fell to a low of 19% around the winter of 2012. remember when everything was being looking good, it dipped down again. the probability of recession went up again. now it's fallen again for the second straight month. 2011, 17.6%. not quite off the charts because we still have room here but it's the lowest that we've seen since we began asking this question. i don't know if we have the growth forecast chart here, guys, if we can go back to that. here are the actuals. year over year gdp, 2.6, 1.8, lackluster and picking up to a lackluster not great 2.6%. i want to share with you some views of the economy from our 54 respo respondents. firming housing