i think we need a senator -- [ applause ] >> i am joined now by msnbc's steve kornacki at the big election over there in our senate races. and steve, the most dramatic outcome i'm hoping for, the most dramatic, is that the control of the senate all comes down to the election in kansas where an independent is running and the one thing he refuses to answer is who he will vote for for majority leader. so if we get 50 elected republicans in the senate, 49 elected on the democratic side, orman is the independent that would make 50 on the democratic side. joe biden would then make 51 in the votes for majority leader if orman becomes the 51st republican, then republicans control the senate. how do we get to the giant pressure of the great orman moment? >> of course, the west wing writers are looking for a dramatic pop. so let's look for it. let's take a look at the big board here. you can see it right in the middle of your screen there, kansas, a color that nobody thought it would be this time of year, the end of october. yellow is undecided. yellow being one of the battle ground states. there ar

joining me is steve kornacki. break it down for us. this very interesting state. >> joy, you said it right there. difficult to poll. this is something you've probably heard when people talk about the alaska senate race with mark begich. it's something you'll hear a ton between now and election day so we thought we would show you exactly what that means. to do that, we're going to call up, first of all, go back to when mark begich first got elected to the senate, six years ago in 2008. if you would average together all of the polls before election day in 2008, this is what it looked like. this is what the expectations were. mark begich, the democrat challenging ted stevens, republican incumbent convicted of corruption charges. begich was double digits ahead in the average polls. everybody looked at this in 2008 and said, it's over, stevens, career done, begich has the seat, it's done. then they held the election. they counted the votes and sthfs a nail-biter. this was a 3700-vote gap. begich won, but barely won. the polls were off by te

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joining me now is the host of msnbc's "up" steve kornacki and howard fieinman. eve b i want to ask you a question. the question of a split ticket in terms of you vote for a democrat for governor and maybe a republican from the senate. that happens, i guess, in kansas. >> it may. although to the extent it does, it's going to be very limited. i think the logic behind it would be it's a republican state. it's a state that voted for mitt romney. such a republican state that how many times can these republican voters, these republican friendly voters bear to leave the republican column when standing in the -- >> polarizing in the state. >> he is also in trouble. so there are actually three competitive statewide elections where republicans are in danger of losing. i think most people are going to make it in the first two and maybe in the second race where they're going to, you know, they'll go either all republican or all democratic. but to the extent you do have crossover stuff happening there, i think it's that. it's republican who is in many cases never checked off

our own steve kornacki is here to break it down. >> yes, as you've said. there are nine blue state republican governors here. and the big question is. these are states that obamacare carried twice, republicans carried as governor in 2010. how many of them can survive? and as they're up for re-election this year. nine of them on the board. we've ranked them in order of vulnerability. basically, the safetiest ones we're going to list first and what we think is the most vulnerable governor will go last. let's start going through the list here. we consider this the safest blue state republican governor. brian sandoval, republican in nevada. this is -- numbers you're seeing here, the average of all the polls taken. >> cruising to re-election. >> harry reid has given up on goodman. safest one there. next safe es, a surprise. at the start we would have said john kasich -- >> 12 months ago. >> well, ed fitzgerald has run a disastrous campaign. to call it a campaign when some of the top people quit in the middle of the campaign tells you there was a personal scanda

joining me now, steve kornacki host of "up".to see you. >> great to be here, jose. >> start with the senate. we might not know which party has the majority until after election night. there could be runoffs in some of the too close to call races. >> that's right. let's take a look. start with the state of kansas. one of my favorite senate elections. we go to the big board, show you how close it is in kansas. this is a weird race. no democrat in the race. independent, orman, and pat roberts, that's the average of the polls, the average puts orman ahead by a point. from the roberts perspective, good news for republicans, if we looked at this a month ago, he would have been down nearly ten points. he closed that gap, he has brought in big name national republicans. warned kansas voters, you vote for greg orman, you might be voting for a democratic senate, he succeeded in bringing it back to a tie or close to at that tie. the bad news, that growth and surge seemed to have leveled off and stabilized. orman is still slightly ahead. th

steve kornacki here tonight to talk about the state of play and what might be a glimmer of hope for democrats in what's otherwise looking like a tough election democrats. we' got the latest on the battle for a quarantine for that defiant nurse in maine who returned to this country from treating ebola patients in sierra leon. she hes has no symptoms of ebola and does not appear to have the disease. she's fighting efforts to quarantine her now in maine. we're going to wrap up the show with a big correction that we have to make. there's a lot going on. there's a lot in tonight's show. we have to begin tonight with some breaking news out of pennsylvania. this is on the fbi's ten most wanted list. there they are. eric freen is accused of killing a pennsylvania state trooper and wounding another trooper with a sniper rifle last month in pike county, pennsylvania. the trooper who was killed was corporal brian k. dixon. he was 38 years old. since that shooting on september 12, eric frein, trained survivalist has been on the run from police sparking a seven-week long manhunt. they picked up various it

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we've got steve kornacki giving us the lay of the land. and a 20-year-old reality star who has made over $1 million in the past year mining of all things. and what i think cory gardner is going to win on tuesday. >> i've got to go back to the person mining and winning -- i think we're all in the wrong business. we need to re-think, but for now "the cycle" is up next. an important message for americans eligible for medicare. the annual enrollment period is now open. now is the time to find the coverage that's right for you ... at the right price. the way to do that is to explore your options. you can spend hours doing that yourself ... or you can call healthmarkets ... and let us do the legwork for you - with no cost or obligation. we'll search a variety of plans from nationally recognized companies to find the coverage that's the best fit for you ... at a price that fits your budget. and we'll do it at no charge to you. just tell us what you're looking for ... what deductibles you prefer ... what doctors you want to see. let us know if you

for more on the midterms, let's head to steve kornacki at the election boards. it's great to have you on the show. is there a state where the president's campaigning will actually help democrats on tuesday? >> well, and it's great to be here. let's take a look at the board. we have a state called up here and this is wisconsin, the site of one of the most intense ferocious governor races in the country. let's remind you where the race stands now, scott walker, elected first in 2010, survives the recall in 2012, possible 2016 presidential candidate. this is big for democrats. they can stop a republican presidential candidate in his tracks if they can beat him here. now, the most recent poll you've seen this week put walker ahead by seven points in this race, 50% to 43%. good position to be in, you would think. but look at the average of all the polls because polls, there's a lot of noise. but p when you do the averages, you can do a lot of consistent reading. the average of all polls put walker ahead of burke, his democratic challenger. and walker's been making a

msnbc's steve kornacki has more. >> we're talking about what a suspenseful election night this will bet know which party will have control of the senate. there's a particular reason for that. it has to do with two states. i want to show you which ones they are and why. we're going to go over to the big board here. in yellow you have battleground. you have the ten senate races sort of up in the air, they're volatile. they're not sure who is going to win. in some of these states, one candidate has moved fairly significantly ahead in the polls. enough where right now we can color in some of the states to make some assumptions to illustrate the point i want to make about the two key states. in new hampshire, jeanne shaheen, a democrat has been running ahead there. could still get caught. the republicans have a few of their own. kentucky, mitch mcconnell is one of them. mark pryor is in grave political danger. mary landrieu, running behind in louisiana. at least in terms of a runoff, people think. alaska, another one tough to poll. expectation is the republican is ahead right there. now let

steve kornacki here tonight to talk about the state of play and what might be a glimmer of hope for democratsn what's otherwise looking like a tough election democrats. we' got the latest on the battle for a quarantine for that defiant nurse in maine who returned to this country from treating ebola patients in sierra leon. she hes has no symptoms of ebola and does not appear to have the disease. she's fighting efforts to quarantine her now in maine. we're going to wrap up the show with a big correction that we have to make. there's a lot going on. there's a lot in tonight's show.

that wraps up this weekend, straight ahead, up with steve kornacki.o join alex whit for a two hour edition. have a good day. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics. what's your favorite kind of cheerios? honey nut. but... chocolate is my other favorite... oh yeah, and frosted! what's your most favorite of all? hmm...the kind i have with you. me too. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you outlive your money? uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive.. confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor can get the real answers you need. well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today

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steve kornacki, thank you very much. can you catch steve's show on weekends on msnbc. "the rachel maddow" show starts right now. >> that is the political equivalent of an action movie. watching steve do that and seeing you guys going through all of those races. it's phenomenal. so exciting. thank you. and thanks to you at home for this remarkable footage shot inside one of canada's main parliament buildings in ottawa. just truly shocking first person close-up video of that horrendous fire fight with dozens of shots fired inside the parliament building. the reporter who shot that video today is going to be live joining us in just a moment. we've got him coming up. but an understanding today's news out of the canadian capital. and what happened today in ottawa. it is worth considering what has just happened in canada leading up to this. last week, canada's version of the pentagon, their department of national defense, instituted a new policy related to members of the armed forces and the press. after canadian prime minister stephen harper announced canadian aircraft and

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. >> joining me now, msnbc's steve kornacki. you have the big board up there, the senate races. on election night, where are we likely to get the first sense of what's happening nationally? where will the returns come in that we can look at and say here's what's happening in this state and here's what it should tell us. >> sure. there are a number of poll closings at the 7:00, 8:00 hour in the eastern time zone. but there's one we can pay particular attention to, the first in the nation primary state. the state of new hampshire. most of the polls will be closed by 8:00. it's a small state. we hope we can get a result announced fairly quickly. that's where gene sjean shaheen being challenged by the former governor of massachusetts. >> so steve, a shaheen win means what for the coverage going for the night in terms of other states? >> let's take a close look and see exactly why this is significant. this is where the race stands in new hampshire. this is the average of all the polling done in new hampshire to this point. it shows gene sha heen with a two-point lead over scott brown

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joining me now, msnbc host steve kornacki. >> what you're saying is extra. how many wide open races there really are. >> tell me. how close are some of these senate races? >> sure. what we've done is we've tried to narrow the battlefield. what you have here, red states blarks states, states with the senate races. pretty clear you can tell which party will win. what's the other party? yellow. and there are ten of them. ten senate races rate now that we look at and we say, some of them, neighbor democrats are ahead. a lot of them is tough to tell who is ahead. it is very unusual to get this late in the cycle. the thing to dmeep mind, you have ten up for grabs. if you look at the totals for each party, remember there are two different numbers at play here. they have to get to 51. that means six of the ten up for grabs. of course these two independents currently caucus with them. >> what's the closest race where democrats are trying to hold to a seat? >> i would say take a look at iowa. this is democratic senator retiring. it is an open seat, a democratic z this

. >> up with steve kornacki. >>> we've got a fun debunktion junction in a minute but here's [ female ] we lowered her fever. you raise her spirits. we tackled your shoulder pain. you make him rookie of the year. we took care of your cold symptoms. you take him on an adventure. tylenol® has been the number 1 doctor recommended brand of pain reliever for over 20 years. but for everything we do, we know you do so much more. tylenol®. >>> we've got a fun debunktion junction in a minute but here's a taste of what's to come. this is amazing. every state gets two senators no matter how big or how small the state is, right? but some states like vermont and wyoming and montana, those states have such a small population that even though they've got two senators they've only one got one of the house for the whole state. there's seven of those states altogether. north dakota is one of those states. they've only got one member of the house. north dakota's sole member of congress is a guy named kevin, kevin cramer. he's a republican. now for the first time he's running for re-election. if you know

all right, you can watch "up" with steve kornacki every weekend here on msnbc. a lot out stake in next week's elections and maybe just a chance to change some of the gridlock we're also frustrated with in washington. former republican presidential candidate mitt romney told me if you want to see that kind of change on key issues like immigration, vote republican. >> i think if you see a republican house and senate, there'll be more ballots. and by the way, we do need immigration reform, need to secure the border, make the system more transparent. i think you'll see that if we have a republican house and senate. >> it's a sentiment president obama took some serious issue with last night after he was heckled by an immigration reform advocate. >> the young lady is expressing her concern about, about immigration and the fact that we don't have a comprehensive immigration bill. the problem is, she should be protesting the republicans -- that's what she should be doing. i'm for it! i'm for it! >> so is there any realistic chance on either side of the aisle for these m

msnbc's steve kornacki has more on what each candidate needs to do to win on tuesday. >> all right, lukeant to take a closer look at north carolina. this is one of those key battleground states. this is one that democrats dearly want and need to hang on to if they're going to keep control of the senate. kay hagan, the incumbent democrat you see here. kay hagan in the most recent poll leading by four points the republican challenger tom tillis. we always like to look at the average of all polls because sometimes an individual poll can be a little funky. there's margin of error. there can be some noise in the polling. when you look at the average of all polls in north carolina, what you see, very close race. less than two points. on average when they poll this race, kay hagan leading tillis by less than two points. this is one of those races that republicans think they can catch the democrat at the wire. they think -- they keep talk about the idea of there being a wave in the year 2014. this is one of those states if there is going to be a republican wave, where tillis could wash over kay

you can always watch "up with steve kornacki" on msnbc. >>> there is certainly a lot going on this morningf the things we just thought you should know. an investigator in charge of the review of the secret service prostitution scandal from 2012. resigned after he came under suspicion of patronizing a prostitute himself. government and administration officials confirmed to nbc news the "new york times" report that david neelan stepped down in miami in august after a woman came forward and told sheriff deputies he paid her for sex. he told the "times" the allegation is not true. he's not commented yet to nbc news. he did not work for homeland security or the secret service. the white house says it is investigating what appears to be a cyber attack that hit its computer network. the network gets threats on a daily basis and while assessing a recent threat, they found what they call activity of concern on an unclassified network. however, they stress, there's no evidence classified files were breached. this attack was said to be much more significant disrupting the system for several days, and

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and now the genual and affable host sthe host steve kornacki.nst the clock. our current events and politics show. let me remind you how it works. we play three rounds here. 100 in the first second, 200 in the second, 300 in the third. the questions get harder as we go along. remember you'll be penalized for any incorrect answer. also, we have several bonus questions scattered throughout. with that contest ants, i will ask you if you're ready to play. 100 secs on the clock. in a final push to win control for the senate for republicans, a last minute infusion of $6.5 million into six competitive races was provided by these well known brothers, john. >> koch brothers. >> koch brothers. next week in kansas born person -- >> bob dole. >> dole completed a tour of kansas's 105 counties. >> after a report from the associated press this week, lawmakers he are scrambling a loophole to allow former nazis living in the united states to connect what, john? >> social security. >> this 1990 as political scandal icon created an internet furry when she joined tw

and now the host of "up against the clock" steve kornacki! >> all right. thank you contestants.home for tuning in for another exciting edition of "up against the clock" the fastest paced news and current event show on basic cable weekend mornings. we have three new contestants. you probably know them already. we play for three rounds. 100 points in the first round, 200 in the second and 300 in the third. contestants you can ring in but you are penalized for incorrect answers. there are two special bonus questions hidden throughout here. he will get to them when they come up if they come up. our contestance are playing not just for victory and glory and honor but also a chance to play in our tournament of champions. to qualify you are first going to have to win today. as always i implore our live studio audience. with that, contestants, are you ready? >> yes. >> they look and sound ready. this is the 100 point round. 100 seconds on the clock. we start with this. in an unusual move the pollster who conducted it on thursday retracted a poll showing mary burke running five points ah

and now, the host of "up against the clock", steve kornacki! -- yeah, joining us at home, welcome to another jam packed thrill packed edition of "up against the clock", the hit game show three brand-new contestants this week. if you've been watching at home, you probably know how it works but let me take you the rules just in case. we play rounds, 100 seconds each, 200 in the second and 300 in the third. they are going to get harder as we go along. you can ring in at any time but you will be penalized for any incorrect answers. i have several bonus questions scattered in here and we'll explain them if and when we get to them. so each round 100 seconds long. contestants will be playing not just for victory but for a spot in the up against the clock tournament of champions. i will remind you as always, please no outbursts contestants deserve and demand absolute concentration. contestants look ready to me. hands on buzzers, please, we'll start the 100 points round with 100 seconds on the clock. and the game begins with this for 100 points, a mile

and now the host of "up against the clock" steve kornacki. >> oh, thank you, jim cutler.me. thank you to our contestants. and our special guest today, thomas roberts. thank you for joining us. you red a eto play? >> yes, sir. >> you came to play today. to let you know how it works. thomas first-time contestant, jonathan is, as well. those of you just joining us a fast-pace political and current events quiz. questions are worth 100 points in the first round, 200 in the second and 300 in the third and contestants you can ring in any time, but be careful because you will be penalized for any incorrect answers and also we have two special bonus questions scattered in here. we will explain them, if and when they come up. our contestants today will be playing not just for victory, but also, maybe, a chance to play in our tournament of champions at the end of the season to qualify you're first going to have to win today, as always. i will implore our live studio audience. please, no outbursts. our contestants require absolute concentration. with that, contestants, i'll ask you t