really important numbers, steve kornacki. it's numbers just beneath that you want to deal with. >> what this means in terms of super tuesday, can donald trump get through the primary process, win that nomination on the first ballot? can the other candidates catch him? can they force the thing we talk about but never see a brokered convention? this is where the delegate count stands saturday night. here it is, the finish line every candidate is trying to get to. over 1200 delegates. we said super tuesday sets up favorably for donald trump. if the polls we're seeing in all the states are right and that's sort of what the results look like tuesday night, if we play this out a little bit, trump will probably advance to a little north of 350 delegates. rubio would probably tack on, he would probably be about 160 or so we would say. cruz, again, texas, his home state, a lot of delegates, say he does well there, he could get close to 200 delegates. so roughly speaking if the polls are right, this could be where we are looking at thi

joining us now is msnbc anchor and correspondent steve kornacki. 1. george w. bush's impact on jeb's campaign in sc 2. is there enough time for rubio ground on trump? 3. if not, what does "the race for second" place really mean for campaigns moving forward? 4. impact of the war of words between trump and cruz and what impression the the usc ladies have three-peated as sec champions..... we'll hear from head coach dawn staley as the gamecocks look to collect more victories and trophies. sports is next!!! the usc women's basketball team while some candidates suck up to trump...or run away from him in fear... jeb bush isn't afraid. jeb bush: "that is downright wrong..." he stands up to trump for his liberal democratic positions. calls out trump for insulting women, attacking the disabled... even trashing a decorated war hero. trump: "i like peoplethat weren't captured..." jeb bush: "john mccain is an american hero..." jeb bush. the better man. the real conservative. a commander in chief. right to rise usa conference. the gamecocks gained at least a share of the ti

when we come back, steve karn k kornacki will show us how we won. our coverage of the nevada caucuses continues. it's been a great day out here with the weather, and for the clintons a very good day. from the moment they wake up, doers don't stop. every day is a chance to do something great. and for the ones they love, they'd do anything. sears optical has glasses made for doing. right now, buy one pair and get another free. quality eyewear for doers. sears optical. i'm bushed! i've been on my feel alyea me too. excuse me...coming through! ride the gel wave of comfort with dr. scholls massaging gel insoles. they're proven to give you comfort. which helps you feel more energized ...all day long. i want what he has. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ the nissan rogue. with the power and performance of our intuitive all-wheel drive. now get a $189 per month lease on the 2016 nissan rogue. >>> there you see it, hillary clinton is the projected winner of the nevada caucuses out here today

at the board, once again sponsored by the steve kornacki casual collection. >> steve, did you get in trouble for the jeans now that we got khakis? >> i got my fancy khakis on. i'll have you know, this is a new sweater. >> i think you look very nice. you look like a young republican. >> there you go. >> don't be creepy. he's not that young. geez, nicolle. >> this is going it be a long night. >> thankfully katy tur is hanging out at trump headquarters in spartanburg, south carolina. katy, what are you hearing from headquarters? >> reporter: donald trump has been hunkered down all day today. no public appearances. they're trying to eke out a win here, brian, which is so surprising considering that just a couple weeks ago he was up by double digits here. part of the reason we've seen a decline in his numbers this past week is attributed to his performance saturday where he accuses george w. bush of lying about weapons of mass destruction. george w. bush is still a very popular figure here. that did not go over well. sources within the campaign told me they warned him to back off of that.

. >> msnbc's steve kornacki breaks down how the next few weeks may play out. >> with donald trump -- if he wants to end this quickly the easiest thing to keep doing is to keep winning, but there are specific things he can do to force the issue with the three remaining components. win in the home states. look at this. this is a poll that's just out in the last day. ted cruz ahead by only eight points in his home state over donald trump. it was not long ago that the ted cruz campaign was look at texas and looking at 50% there. pause if you can win more than 50% in texas, you win every single one of the statewide delegates at state. this is a winner take all primary in ohio. the buckeye state, john kasich, two-term governor re-elected overwhelmingly in 2014, brand-new poll out there, donald trump leading john kasich in his home state of ohio by five points. in florida, 99 delegates, marco rubio the home state candidate, not only in the latest poll -- this is a few weeks ago we have to say, not only is marco rubio losing to donald trump, but he was running third in his home state behind

we have steve kornacki on set with us, and steve has a look at what we know, basically, about who has turned out in south carolina. this is from exit poll dating -- exit poll data. steve, what are we learning so far? >> this is the first wave of exit poll data that's coming in. we can tell you what the electorate's looking like. chris was just talking about the large number of african-americans voting in south carolina. check this out. >> wow. >> what we're seeing, 61% of the democratic data is african-american. in 2008, when barack obama got that huge victory in south carolina, it really put him on course for the nomination. it was only 55%. so right now, we are seeing more african-americans turns out than we did eight years ago. let's look at the ideology. how democrats were voting today. you can see, 23%, very liberal. 29, somewhat liberally. interestingly, this is the fourth democratic contest we've had so far. this would be the least liberal democratic electorate we've seen in any of these early contests, but early, it's continuing a trend we're seeing. and that is that overall,

let's go back to steve kornacki at 30 rock with more information.eak it out if you can. >> chris, we've been seeing this a little while, with these numbers. there's a reason the projection is moving slightly. it has to do with the area around las vegas, clark county. all these numbers you're seeing here, 52%, 40%, the numbers next to that are the county delegates. there's going to be a total of 12,000 and change that are distributed across the state today. but more than 70% of those delegates are coming out of this one county, clark county. take a look inside here and see the results. hillary clinton right now, this is shaping up currently as basically her best county in the state. she has a 10-point lead over bernie sanders. clark county was a big county for hillary clinton in 2008. she won it by about the same margin she's leading bernie sanders right now. the key for the bernie sanders campaign is that about 70% of the vote is still out in clark county. so what you're seeing at the moment is hillary clinton is hitting the same number she hit eigh

also political correspondent for msnbc, steve kornacki, back in new york. , where does the democratic race stand? >> well, there's some indications in some of this polling that it might be tightening a little bit, at least in one of the daily tracking polls. from hillary clinton's standpoint, it's about managing expectations. this line repeated over and over again, bernie sanders has this big advantage because he's from a neighboring state. he's from vermont. we talked a little about this yesterday. they're making a lot more of the advantage than is really there. it's really massachusetts candidates with that boston media market who have the big advantage in new hampshire, not so much candidates from vermont. nonetheless, they're looking, i think, to attach a bit of an asterisk to any sanders victory, and also they would like this to look like they did better than expected. that's what bill clinton did in 1992. he came in second place, ended up losing by eight points, but he called himself the comeback kid. he said, look, i was supposed to lose worse than th

. >> steve kornacki at the board with all 99 counties in iowa. steve, thanks. and let's go all the way to the west in iowa to sioux city where, as mentioned earlier, donald trump wrapped up an event tonight. katy tur covering for us. what does he have remaining on the schedule? and what room to call iowa audibles? >> reporter: he has a rally tomorrow quite near des moines and waterloo. then he has that -- what he hopes will be a victory party in des moines later tomorrow night. right now this was anything but a raucous rally, a raucous way to end the day before iowans get out to vote. usually donald trump has very big rallies where people are cheering him. he does call and repeats with them sometimes. this was a much more subdued version of him. sitting onstage with jerry falwell jr., it was this informal question and answer, falwell jr. talking about the charitable giving that donald trump has done. it culminated with them giving a $100,000 check to a local charity out here that supports veterans and soldiers. this all comes from that money they were -- donald

. >> before we go to steve kornacki, we also had widely anticipated a primary in south carolina with a lot of dirty trickery. it turns out that didn't come true but some did. >> what happened in south carolina, there was less of the typical south carolina dirty trick, which is i don't know who did this and i can't capture it in any way. it becomes a whisper campaign, it becomes something you can't document, something that's sort of into the wind and nobody ever has to pay to an price for it. we did see things turn in sort of a nasty way, including my favorite nasty campaign trick, which is a robo call run by a ted cruz supporting super pac. it's an anti-donald trump robo call and it is a hall of fame anti-gay campaign tactic. listen to this robo call. >>> check out how trump answers this. >> i'm a lesbian. we've had some great progress with the gay and lesbian community through politics and all sorts of judicial actions and election actions over the past 20 years. when president trump is in office, can we look for more forward motion on equality for gays and lesbians? >> well, you ca

steve kornacki, again, i will ask you. how does a person who's been wall street's biggest friend over the past decade say that with a straight face. >> this has been her biggest vulnerability in this campaign. it's the biggest reason bernie sanders has been able to get traction, it's that she's vulnerable on this and it's to the democratic base that is so angry with wall street, he comes off as so credible on this. the thing i'm struck by here is we're analyzing this debate last night is yes, she was very strong in terms of her presentation and style last night. >> preparation. >> that said. think of every clip we've shown. what is the turf that this is being fought over? wall street, the economy. it's being fought on bernie sanders turf. >> in short, it's being fought on democratic turf. >> my head is -- you won't even go to me! we have a ton of polls coming up, i can't wait to go to him because, man -- >>? d d donny is bursting at the seams of his pink suit right now. >> what were you watching? >> i was watching a grown-

>> absolutely. >> steve kornacki, thank you very much.sen joins us for business before the bell. pitch you inve opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors, there's a lot of money to be made. but first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. you're not even registered; i'm done with you! i can...i can... savvy investors check their financial pro's background by visiting smartcheck.gov can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? donald trump: "pedonald trump..." look past the boasting and you'll see right through him. he supported partial-birth abortions. his phony trump university? accused of fraud. he tried to seize private property to line his own pockets. four bankruptcies... and small businesses screwed over. poll after poll shows him losing... to hillary clinton. if trump wins, conser

let's go to steve kornacki. super tuesday was always going to be hugely important in terms of getting this nomination. super tuesday right now becomes imminently important, both because it's very close and it calls into question as to whether or not donald trump is running away with the republican nomination. steve, what does this path look like here? >> well, you heard him in the victory speech talking about trying to put this thing away quickly and trying to go into certain states where the polls are looking good and donald trump wants to end this quickly. obviously the easiest thing to do is to keep winning but there are three specific thing he can do in the next three weeks to try to force the issue with his three remaining components. that is win in their home states. so let's take a look here in texas. this is the first chance he's going to have to do this. this is a week from today. you were talking about this a minute ago. ted cruz's home state, look at this. this is a poll just out in the last day. ted

steve kornacki, good to see you my friend.hat's behind hillary clinton's visit to flint, michigan tomorrow? first new hampshire may be do or die time for john kasich and his presidential hopes, but the ohio governor says don't count him out. during an interview yesterday, kasich said he'd be the worst vice president. you should counted him out, because he doesn't want to take orders from anyone or everyone. we'll be right back. i think it landed last tuesday. one second it's there. then, woosh, it's gone. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson. [dog bark] trust me, we're dealing with a higher intelligence here. ♪ the all-new audi q7 is here. ♪ at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like vacations equal getting carried away. more proactive selling. what do you think michal? i agree. let's get out there. let's meet these people. ... 83% try to eat healthy. yet up 90% fall short in getting key nutrients from food alone. let's do more.

steve kornacki picks up our coverage live in las vegas right now. have a great day, everybody. >> have a great day. >>> and good morning. i'm steve kornacki live in las vegas. 24 hours away now from the big republican caucuses here in the silver state, in nevada, as well as the next contest for the democrats, that's coming up toward the end of the week -- at the end of the week, in fact, saturday south carolina democratic primary now on the republican side we are down to just a five-way race. if you are donald trump's decisive victory in south carolina on saturday night republicans are shifting their focus on tomorrow's show down in nevada and then to the big prize next week. super actuals, more than 600 delegates up for grabs in a dozen states in a single day. and the big question now can anyone stop donald trump. >> i will tell you what we are just going one after another. are we going to win georgia? we're going to. i see t i feel it. >> donald trump has demonstrated that he has a relatively high floor of support but he's also got, i think, a cei

steve kornacki at the board. steve, thanks. chuck todd standing by to talk to us. chuck, you know what i'm going to say, first of all, east coast media types don't understand the economic situation right now in nevada. fourth worst unemployment in the entire country. >> that's right. >> and second, what chris was saying, the power of old-school labor organizers and their friends. >> well, look, you know, we joke about the establishment. it's been used and thrown around so much, we forget sometimes how to even define the word anymore. we know sanders is running against the establishment. trump is. but there is an establishment and sanders ran smack dab into a brick wall named the establishment. and i think that the culinary -- when you look at these numbers in clark county, it's a union-heavy county. when you look at how she did among union households, look, three-quarters of the participants weren't in a union household. those that were, she won that fairly comfortably. same margin essentially as she won in clark county. the largest county there. so i think it's a

steve kornacki's been watching that in terms of what's outstanding still in iowa. what are we waiting for, steve? >> by my count right count rig changing by the minute. there are approximately 140 precincts in the entire state of iowa right now that have not reported on the democratic side. now, doing some back of the energy calculations here, more of those precincts are in counties that are going for hillary clinton tonight than for bernie sanders. she has an advantage there. she also had an advantage in that the single, biggest cluster of outstanding is in polk county. des moines, the biggest county in the state. hillary clinton's been leading there by between eight and ten points tonight. the biggest, single precincts, 20, or 30 outstanding are in polk. that said, there are a couple college counties, story. iowa state. blackhawk, university of northern iowa. the city of davenport. some outstanding precincts there, i should say. some sanders area. some high concentration of sanders supporters as well. it is tough to see looking at that either can a, oh, yeah, i'm

but we're at a point know where if you're trump you've got to start getting worried. >> steve kornacki at the board. fantastic technology. we should probably add based on where we're about to go next, when technology works it's great. jacob soboroff back on the floor of the fieldhouse. jacob, there's been a cough in the system? >> yeah, a little bit, unfortunately, brian. it's a pretty simple technological one. i'm here with carla smith who i met earlier in the evening and her phone battery's died so she's not able to report the results yet to the party. but carla, you have done the final count, the campaigns have done the final count and you have the numbers, right? >> yes. >> can you tell us what they are? >> sure. bernie sanders had 406 people. >> okay. >> so he is having five delegates. >> out of six total. >> hillary had 93 people. the total amount of people that were here were 499. >> say it again. the total amount of people. >> 499. >> and those are the numbers you'll be reporting to the state -- >> yes. >> are you confirming you're not able to get them in because of the battery

steve kornacki first brought it to our attention. he is back with us here. t, and it's different sort of circumstances would have to arise to bring this about. but for example, and one of them that was, took place in des moines, you had people sign in at the start of the night, they took attendance in the precinct, and based on the total number of people who were there, they said, okay, this number of people equals this number of delegates. this number of delegates that will be at stake here. then they go through that entire process, you know, it's sort of a long, painstaking process there, where they meet up, they argument, they debate, switch sides, and by the end of that process, they were fewer people in the room, so when they tallied up the clinton and sanders' side, there were actually a number of people that were sort of unaccounted for. but they had assigned delegates for a large number of people. so that basically me want there was an extra delegate. so how do you assign that extra delegate? you have a coin toss between two sides. so this was a numbe

steve kornacki, ask our other guests about your reporting here. it sure is accurate. one of hillary clinton's cries on the campaign trail is to put a woman in the oval office. in a recent new york times column, whether baby boomers will back the secretary of state. she wrote that hillary clinton has always counted of women of her generation, polls don't quantify doubts. but anecdotally it's anemic, her authenticity, and power as a woman. she has been caught on a grass deal universal health care plan. in 2008 by the way, 57% primary voters were women, so the fight for women support is pivotal, from new york, gail sheehy, here with me in durham, "washington post," ruth marcus. gail, what is the -- is your evidence, what is your evidence? what are you hearing about hillary clinton? because our numbers are overwhelmingly 2-1 among women. 65% nationally for hillary among democrats? >> well, i think andrea mitchell said on your show that recently, hillary has been losing among women over all. and even among some older women. those are the women in her generation that have a

appreciate that. >>> joining us no on set, msnbc anchor and political correspondent steve kornacki. up there, steve? >> so far so good. >> in washington, nbc news chief foreign affairs correspondent and host of "andrea mitchell reports," andrea mitchell. and in greenville, south carolina, nbc news correspondent hallie jackson. hallie, it seems ted cruz is turning his attention to hillary. tell us about it. >> i know we can talk about that porn star ad all day, guys, but there's another out from ted cruz where he's taking aim at hillary, just a sign of where he's trying to go in south carolina, throwing red meat to the primary electorate as he tries to get momentum over these next ten days. take a listen to the ad out against her. >>. ♪ damn it feels good to be a clinton, a shameless politician ♪ always plays her cards right ♪ got a crew for the fight on the airwaves, left dogs ♪ in the press keep their mouths tight because a ♪ clinton never needs to explain why it is what ♪ they've done war who ♪ a real clinton knows they're entitled and you don't get to know ♪ what they do >> what d

joining me now at the big board in 30 rock is my pal, steve kornacki. and the good news tonight is we're going to be able to do some county-by-county business. the bad news is only on one-half of the occasion. but because it's basically a firehouse primary on the republican side, we do have some patterns to follow. talk to me about romney v. santorum and what that could tell us about trump v. cruz. >> exactly. let's take a look back at the last republican caucuses in iowa in 2012. so the key here is, the blue, the purple, however that looks on your screen, that's rick santorum. and mitt romney is the green. remember, santorum and romney, it was basically a title in the total number of votes in '12, but very different coalitions. so using that sort of as the backdrop here, i want to take a look at the keys for three of the candidates tonight on the republican side. we start with ted cruz, and basically, everywhere you see a santorum county here, that is key, that is the backbone of what cruz is trying to pull off. basically look up here. this is sioux co

joining us now once again is the great steve kornacki.ton came in third place in iowa in 2008. she knows better than nearly anybody that a loss in iowa could change the whole trajectory of the race, making an inevitable nominee anything but inevitable. what's the outlook for her this time around in iowa? >> that's the interesting thing. when you think back eight years ago, iowa was the beginning of the end for hillary clinton. we talked earlier about how she does have that superdelegate advantage that firewall that seems to be a firewall later in the south. but if she loses tomorrow night, she could find herself very quickly in pretty much an unprecedented situation. let me show you what i mean by that. first of all, this is the latest poll out in iowa. we've been talking about it all night. 45-42, clinton leads sanders. if sanders pulls this thing off, think about this. if sanders catches her tomorrow and wins, okay, that's a win for bernie sanders. what happens next? they move to new hampshire. this is reversed, actually. bernie sanders

steve kornacki will be back with a breakdown of all the exit polling.for that. >> plus, donald trump on releasing his taxes. >> i fight like hell not to pay taxes. i hate the way the government spends my money. e cash back cars keep throwing obstacles at you? first - they limit where you earn bonus cash back. then - those places change every few months? i think i'll pass... quicksilver from capital one puts nothing in your way. you simply earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere. you can't dodge the question... what's in your wallet? i tabut with my back paines, i couldn't sleep and get up in time. then i found aleve pm. aleve pm is the only one to combine a safe sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. i'm back. aleve pm for a better am. you'rewhen a majestic beastwoods runs into view. then you run into a tree. but your totaled new car isn't totally replaced. with new car replacement, we'll replace the full value of your car plus depreciation. liberty mutual insurance. >>> this morning, donald trump talked taxes o

steve kornacki, thanks. think about that. they can never win iowa here. >> i was thinking hillary clinton wakes up in iowa, it's like 2008 all over again and not in a good way. you have this kind of up start campaign that came from nowhere and suddenly she's in a real race here. >> by the way, a loss, the morale, the staff angst, you and i both know the bill clinton team back seat driving. i mean, the amount of repercussions that come with a loss, it's not just, okay, let's move on, it's ugly. >> especially when there is not a new hampshire come back story awaiting her as there was for her husband. >> much more ahead on this caucus morning. we have decided to do this together. we are at java joes. >> here i am. we will take a look at the final push from the trump and cruz campaigns this morning. katrina pearson from the trump pain and rick tyler from the cruz campaign and they will join us live next. jay knows how to keep his wheels spinning. nice shorts, dad... they don't make 'em in adult sizes? this is what the pros wear.

joining me is political correspondent steve kornacki. >> good to be here. >> you are a good person of good tricks. >> is that a good thing? >> you have anecdotes as your pal. it is a dirty trick what ted cruz did in iowa to ben carson. i have been struck how mad the other republican candidates and campaigns are about it. there is legitimate anger about it. people are not faking it. is that because people don't like ted cruz or is this in the grand scheme of things more beyond the pail of your political heartthrob? >> i think the standard i use in judging durty tricks is the primary of 2000, george w. bush, john mccain this underhanded behind the scenes stuff taking place to undermine john mccain from bush-aligned people. >> he was secretly driven crazy and brain washed, he had a black child that he didn't own up to, yes. >> to me that's the all time worse i can think of at the presidential level. i saw lot worse in new jersey. at the presidential level, that itself worst. i wouldn't put this in that league a. lot of reaction has cruz a h

steve kornacki, great is stuff, sir.e home. >> thank you. >> nice to have you back. >> thank you. >> we'll see you up there on sunday. >> all right. >>> coming up, just over 24 hours until the south carolina polls close. they have to open, and then they'll close.ç can bernie sanders keep it close? we'll crunch some numbers, next. and then the inside story. republican strategist rick tyler joins me live for his first interview since his departure from the cruz campaign. stay tuned. go, go, go, go, go, go... touchdown! ♪ choir and harp music. this place, it's the best-kept secret in football since... hey, how did he get in here?! and with toe nail fungus! fight it! with jublia. jublia is a prescription medicine used to treat toenail fungus. use jublia as instructed by your doctor. now that's prime time. most common side effects include ingrown toenail, application site redness, itching, swelling, burning or stinging, blisters, and pain. you ready to fight it? ask your doctor if jublia is right for you. y'know, i look grea

i'm steve kornacki.ss than 24 hours away now from the start of super tuesday. 2016. the first polls are going to open at 5:00 a.m. eastern time tomorrow. this might be the most important day of this entire presidential primary season. when the race truly goes national. nearly 600 delegates

i would like to bring in steve kornacki. he's been so patient, digging deeper into the numbers. steve, obviously, with new hampshire behind us, we can chew on this, but the question is also, what does it tell us about nevada? what could it tell us about south carolina and beyond? dm the point david was making earlier is spot on when you look at the results from new hampshire on the democratic side. i think maybe we have misunderstood bernie sanders's coalition or at least his potential coalition. a lot of talk in the race is hey, it's really tough for bernie sanders to replicate what barack obama did in defeating hillary clinton in 2008, because basically, bernie sanders can get the same white voters that barack obama got. they tended be younger, college-educat college-educated, upper scale income wise, and cannot get the african-american support that barack obama had. what we're seeing in new hampshire is interesting. bernie sanders certainly still needs to work on getting african-american support in south carolina, but in new hampshire, we see bernie sanders building a very di

steve kornacki at the board. twoirnting races both parties. we're going to take a break. we'll be right back with updated numbers and chuck todd right after this. >>> we're back at 10:19 p.m. on the east coast. here's the democratic side again. not raw vote. that 81% number in the upper left. too close to call. these are -- it's a bank shot mathematically. they're delegate equivalents. more on that at another time. let's go to the gop, where we have a development. 99% of the raw in. too close to call. and look at the margin here. >> 99% in. >> 99% in. sooner or later, we're going to have hard and fast results. ted cruz, donald trump, marco rubio. from first to third. 43,000 to 35,000. chuck todd is standing by. but first we're going to go to katy tur at donald trump headquarters. katy, you sense a little bit of a change in the atmospherics if not the overall mood? >> reporter: certainly. everybody is glued to the television right now watching this. i just spoke to state senator brad zahn, who endorsed donald trump back in october. i showed him the latest poll results, and

i'm steve kornacki. we are live in manchester, new hampshire. the state today, the mad dash is on for last-minute support. all of the 2016 candidates out there scrambling around with a primary here just three days away now. for republicans the clock is ticking ahead of tonight's final debate. that will be the last chance for them to go head-to-head before the polls open on tuesday. several of the candidates also making their appeals in person at town halls and rallies, including dr. ben carson, who was here on set just in the last hour making his case. >> why should new hampshire voters go towards you for president right now? >> well, there are a number of reasons. first of all, i've had a lot of life experiences. not as a career politician, but as somebody

steve kornacki joins us again with a closer look at one area of new hampshire where clinton and her campaign a close watch on steve, where is that? >> so we want to show you where hillary clinton biggest strength in the state is. the biggest challenge for bernie sanders going into this. so start by taking a look at 23008. this was the clin tomorrow obama map. remember, hillary clinton won the state by three points over barack obama. so this is sort of a good starting place for bernie sanders. if he's going to knock hillary clinton off in new hampshire, he wants to at least take the obama areas, the big thing to see here, right along the vermont border, connecticut river valley, the most liberal part of new hampshire, obama did very well here in 2008. this is also a good natural fit for bernie sanders. not so much because vermont is next door, just the politics of this. this is a liberal area. the rural north, lightly populated, very native borp, working class. she did well here. the key to hillary clinton was down here in the southern part of the state. this is the boston media market. these

for more on the critical latino vote here in nevada we go to msnbc's steve kornacki in new york. e numbers in 2008 the last time we had a really, hot, contested race in that case between hillary clinton and barack obama. about 15% were latino. what do you expect on that front? >> yeah, so that's the thing, again, you can look at, we can put on the screen here what the results looked like in 2008, again, hillary clinton 51% statewide. the latino vote when you're talking about where it's really a factor here in nevada you look right around las vegas and also to a lesser extent up here wa o washoe county and 15% was the figure in the 2008 caucuses 15% of the participants said they were latino or hispanic. however, the most recent census numbers for nevada show the actual number of people in the state, the number of latinos in the state, is higher. and part of that is because these numbers are changing every year. the state is becoming more diverse every year, so the 15% could be higher today. we'll look to see if that is true when we get entrance poll da data. but this is the key, th

. >> we have mike barnicle, robert costa and steve kornacki. mike, go. >> it's an earth-shaking development when you consider the reality that it's quite possible that the republican nomination for president might be wrapped up before the democratic nomination for the president. >> wow. >> steve coor knakornacki, i wa watching you last night trying to figure out where the trend lines were and maybe kasich will do better in college towns, maybe bernie will do better in college towns. no, it was a sweeping revolution on both sides. i couldn't believe in both races sanders and trump just blanketed this state top to bottom. >> here's the number that sticks out at me. you mentioned this. eight years ago, hillary clinton won up here. it was a three-way race. john edwards was in the race. last night that was two-way race. but eight years ago she got 39%, winning a three-way race in the state. last night a two-way race she got 38%. she lost a point in eight years despite going from running against two opponents to one opponent and willie i think mentio

steve kornacki, who is going to win? steve has some first data in terms of what the electorate looks like on the republican side? >> you're talking about the differences between iowa and new hampshire. republican side is filled with evangelical christians, very socially conservative. new hampshire, the most secular states in the country, one of the most secular electorates in the republican primary. look at what we're seeing in the exit poll. percentage of republican voters who call themselves evangelical, up slightly from 2012. 25%, a quarter was 22%. by comparison, this number was over 60% in iowa last week, and it is expected to be close to 70% in south carolina. so 25%. what is the breakdown here? you see ted cruz right now leading trump 26-23, rubio, bush, both competitive a little bit there. what you saw in iowa was a solid win for ted cruz. it was 33-21. so a little bit tighter. but the big story, a much, much less significant chunk of the electorate here in new hampshire. >> steve kornacki, thank you. let's bring.

i'm steve kornacki live from manchester, new hampshire, on this morning after the first in the nation primary. we're going to have much more on bernie sanders in just a moment. but first, donald trump is a winner this morning. the billionaire businessman, real estate developer, reality show icon taking 35% of the vote in new hampshire with the support of 92,000 voters. more than 50,000 votes ahead of his nearest competitor. traffic backed up for miles yesterday in lines of voters stretched into the final hour of voting. latecomers rushed to the polls. and the turnout on the republican side, it was record breaking with 92% of the vote now in. more than 263,000 people cast ballots in the republican primary. that shatters the record from back in 2012. donald trump finished well ahead of ohio governor john kasich. kasich who broke out of the pack somewhat to finish at 16%. senator ted cruz behind him at 12%. so a little more than 1,200 votes ahead of jeb bush who took 11% of the vote. placing in the top four and keeping his campaign alive. further down, marco rubio in what for him was a d

i want to talk about tonight's debate, with you and steve kornacki who is back in new york. e right now among the democrats, who is more progressive. >> yeah. sorry. technical issue there. yes, that's what they are talking about right now. obviously that is to bernie sanders' advantage at this moment. if you look at the entrance polls from there in iowa, among the voters who described themselves as the most liberal, sanders had a very comfortable margin over hillary clinton, about 20 points. the good news for bernie sanders, if you're talking about iowa and new hampshire, on the democratic side, a much bigger share of the electorate describes himself as liberals. we're talking about 65, 70%, around two-thirds of democrats call themselves liberals. hillary clinton is running from behind in part because of that and she's obviously trying to remind voters in new hampshire, trying to tell voters in new hampshire, look, he's not the only one that can call himself a progressive, trying to chip away at his advantage there. the problem for bernie sanders is that this discussion will

steve kornacki, thank withdryou much. >> i think steve kor kornacki is going to tell us how the storynds. is he supposed to do that. >> the polls can be wrong. they were wrong heading into iowa. trump was supposed to win iowa heading in there, so maybe that's ted cruz's and marco rubio's hope here that all the polls are going to be wrong again. but if the polls are right and the momentum is what the momentum obviously is, then this is starting to feel like an impossible dream. >> used to be polling over 50 in texas, cruz. by the way, he's the texas senator. he's supposed to poll over 50 in his own state. >> they only get two -- >> with him declining, there's going to be movement in the next week in texas. it can only be in one direction at this point. >> i do think there will be some movement, but the early voting in texas is so much to cruz's benefit. they're going to close that on friday at about 55% of republican primary -- will have already voted so that's so much -- >> more than half will have voted in -- >> yes, they will have voted already. that's really to cruz's advantage --

msnbc political correspondent steve kornacki has a deeper look at the geography of the new hampshire last week about it being the neighbor to vermont and that gives bernie sanders an advantage. but you're breaking it down into really smaller sections here to get us to understand how this may play out tomorrow. >> yeah, this might be an interesting way of taking a look at the map here. what you have, this is the republican side. we'll get to the democrats in a minute. this is how much of the total vote in the state comes from each county. a couple things you noting here, how much of the population is in the southern part of the state. this county right here, hillsborough, this is the two biggest cities in state, nashua, manchester. about 200,000 people just between those two cities. then you know right next door, the interesting thing is what do you have in this county? rockingham. a quarter of the population, a quarter of the vote on the republican side from here. these are a lot of people who moved up from massachusetts, a lot of people who still commute in massachusetts, right on t

very first entrance poll numbers from the democratic caucus, they are entrance polls here and steve kornackioins us now from the nbc headquarters 30 rock we call it to break down the numbers. what are you seeing? >> we can show you a couple of things. first of all, what the elecfor rat looks like, you see an electorate that is 64%, roughly two-thirds white, 12% black, 17% hispanic a bit of a change from the last time around in 2008 the number of hispanics was a little lower 15% and the number of african-american voters was a little higher, about 15%. but the same basic breakdown we saw in 2008, about two-thirds white and one-third nonwhite. interesting divides, again, we've been looking at it all along the age sort of barrier in this race, 45 and under we've been seeing it overwhelmingly for sanders in the first two states and seeing that again today in this entrance poll data a lead for sanders, and the reverse over 45 and clinton leading by 2-1. if there's a bit of good news for hillary clinton the population of nevada this is one of the oldest states in the country when you talk about ave

i'm steve kornacki live from manchester, new hampshire, on this morning after the first in the nationrimary. we're going to have much more on bernie sanders in just a moment. but first, donald trump is a winner this morning. the billionaire businessman, real estate developer, reality show icon taking 35% of the vote in new hampshire with the support of 92,000 voters. more than 50,000 votes ahead of his nearest competitor. traffic backed up for miles yesterday in lines of voters stretched into the finalr

joining me now from new hampshire is msnbc steve kornacki.ake tonight. >> >> that's right, melissa. the home stretch. a couple things i'm looking for in this debate tonight. number one is marco rubio. how are the other candidates going to treat marco rubio? he seems to be the guy who has momentum. there is that possibility he catches donald trump, he actually wins this state. obviously, all eyes on donald trump, how will he handle marco rubio? we haven't seen him going after rubio as much this week as we would expect. but again, donald trump and the trump campaign have been defying our expectations all along. the other wild card, though, when we talk about marco rubio is somebody on the stage who is not doing that well in the polls right now, but who has a pretty big voice up there, and that is chris christie. chris christie has been making marco rubio his top target all week, really get the impression looking at christie that christie is saying, look, maybe i can't win new hampshire. i would like to win new hampshire. but if i don't win new

i'm steve kornacki, and the poll often heralded as the gold standard in

looking to catch up and close that huge gap that steve kornacki just reported on.feel the anticipation building. at university of in p in new hampshire. behind me is where the debate's going to be held. the paul creative center. in just a few hours, it will be packed with journalists and the candidates themselves, as we speak. we know that the candidates are in their final preparations getting prepared for this all-important event tonight. it's the first time the two of them are going to face off just the two of them. of course, you know this better than anyone, brian, the media also getting prepared. take a look at all of the live trucks, as far as the eye can see. the media getting excited. and i should tell you, i've been on campus here, students, professors coming up to me and saying they feel honored and excited the debate is taking place here tonight. you can feel anticipation building. we're getting some of the first comments from secretary clinton after the iowa win in "time" magazine, she's on the cover. let me read a little bit. she said, i don't think i

i'm steve kornacki, and the poll often heralded as the gold standard in iowa, the "des moines register"/bloomberg politics poll is out now and the race is tight. but donald trump has the edge on the republican side, 28% to senator ted cruz's 23%. that is an eight-point swing in just the last two weeks that gives trump a lead just outside the margin of error. senator marco rubio runs in third place at 15%. ben carson still afloat with 10%, rand paul back at 5%. chris christie down at 3%. the rest of the field, including jeb bush and the last two iowa caucus winners, huckabee and santorum, they are back at just 2%. now this poll landed in the frantic final hours of campaigning this weekend, as donald trump barnstormed the state with jerry falwell jr. for a question and answer style events. but not all of trump's events were quite so low key. like when his plane did this flyover at a massive airport rally in dubuque set to the theme song from the movie "air force one." trump also attended church with his family on sunday. he took communion and the pastor even came over and offered him a p

and msnbc's political correspondent, steve kornacki is here with the latest new hampshire primary informationreas to start paying attention to. you just noticed the east/west divide. this is the 2012 map when mitt romney won this state big. everywhere you see orange, that was mitt romney. you see, basically, this is the most population-rich part of the state, right across the massachusetts border. romney really cleaned up in these border towns. we've been seeing donald trump do very well down here. but the places you want to be watching tonight to see if anybody is going to get a surprise breakout performance, pay attention to keene, to hannover here, where dartmouth college is. to concord in the middle. these are four sort of liberal, more independent-minded cities. these are places that john mccain did very well when he won this state two times. these are places, for instance, if john kasich is going to have a breakout tonight, he'll probably see it in these places. also, look where the purple is on this map from 2012. the purple are towns that ron paul won. we're seeing, obviously, rand pa

our friend, steve kornacki standing by to guide you through the next hour, live, right here. would her presidency. which is why, for every american who's not being paid what they're worth... who's held back by student debt or a system tilted against them- and there are far too many of you- she understands that our country can't reach it's potential... unless we all do. together. a stronger country. do something! get on the floor! oh i'm not a security guard, i'm a security monitor. i only notify people if there is a robbery. there's a robbery. why monitor a problem if you don't fix it? that's why lifelock does more than free credit monitoring to protect you from identity theft. we not only alert you to identity threats, if you have a problem, we'll spend up to a million dollars on lawyers and experts to fix it. lifelock. join starting at $9.99 a month. and you're talking to yourevere rheumatorheumatologistike me, about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira giving me new perspective. do

>>> a good morning, i'm steve kornacki. the democratic candidates put on quite a show in milwaukee last night. they went head to head for the first time since bernie sanders' big win in the new hampshire primary. that added some extra urgency to the debate last night. especially for hillary clinton who was hoping to recover big from that defeat on tuesday. >> so we have a special obligation, we should not make promises we can't keep. >> every proposal that i have introduced has been paid for. >> once i'm in the white house we will have enough political capital to be able to do that. >> secretary clinton, you are not in the white house yet. >> let's not in any way imply here that either president obama or myself would in any way not take on any vested interest. >> why in god's name does wall street make huge campaign contributions? i guess just for the fun of it. they want to throw money around. >> the kind of criticism that we've heard from senator sanders about our president i expect from republicans i do not expect from s

. >> i'm joined by steve kornacki, and kevin bellcher. steve, i have to tell you, i think bernie sanders is dead right. hillary clinton is trying to learn the bern. >> well, the numbers we're seeing in the first three contests also point to something that's happened over the last eight years during the obama presidency, which is the democratic electorate has gotten a lot more liberal. >> it's fine with most people. >> we've seen it in iowa, new hampshire. eight years ago, you're seeing double-digit increases -- >> is hillary sitting there thinking, you know what, this is working. first of all, student loans. it's a reality. not a philosophy issue. if you get burnt by student loans, you have to pay maybe six figures through your 20s and 30s. you're a debtor. >> but you're seeing -- >> she has to address that issue. >> her weakest group right now is people under 30. >> she hasn't figured out the message. he says free tuition. she's offering lower interest rates. >> three weaknesses have emerged from hillary clinton. one is young voters. anot

i'm steve kornacki. thomas roberts is up next.mas has a big show coming up with republican presidential candidate ben carson and donald trump jr. plus, president obama expected to deliver that statement on guantanamo. we'll have it live. you're watching msnbc, the place for politics. my lenses have a sunset mode. and an early morning mode. and a partly sunny mode. and an outside... to clear inside mode. transitions signature adaptive lenses now have chromea7 technology... making them more responsive than ever to changing light. so life can look more vivid & vibrant. why settle for a lens with just one mode? experience life well lit®. upgrade your lenses to transitions® signature™. visit your local visionwo and start living a life well lit with transitions® lenses. on the floor! everybody down! hey, do something!e floor! oh, i'm not a security guard. i'm a security monitor. i only notify people if there's a robbery. there's a robbery! why monitor a problem if you don't fix it? that's why lifelock does more than free credit monitori