at the big board, our national political correspondent steve kornacki. as we already established, cal perry is holding down the fort in the town called hart's location. in case you were looking for hart. steve kornacki, to you. talk about the history of this kind of thing. first in the nation, yes. but also as they open up the ballot box now in dixville notch, they will post, as they usually do on a board, after calling them out -- we don't have access to sound from here. they will post right there on their high-tech whiteboard, which actually will be a more verifiable result than iowa, they will post the vote. tell us about the tradition and history of this. >> yeah, unlike iowa, the polls are closing here. we're going to get some actual results in a couple minutes. yes, this goes back three different towns here. we can show you towns, unincorporated townships, hamlets if you want to call them. where cal is, hart's location, this is hours north of nashua. this is getting into the north country. if you know new hampshire at all, the attitash ski area, th

steve kornacki at the board. they dropped a ton of votes, let me take you through this, there are three different categories, they were all just released at once. what you're seeing, this is the state delegate equivalent category. this is the -- the numbers you see underneath, 359 for buttigieg, 243 for elizabeth warren, these are state delegate equivalents. there are about 2100 of these statewide. buttigieg with 359, that's accounting for 27%. you can start to do the math of what this accounts for. this is a complicated formula where each precinct works their way up. notably, let me make sure i saw this right. this is the final product. this is the initial preference. yes, we have a discrepancy right now, the initial preference when people showed up, this is -- remember, these are not final results right now. 62% of precincts. we have to see what that exactly accounts for in terms of votes here, the numbers that the iowa democratic party just released the initial preference in these precincts you can see, was sa

steve kornacki, it all comes down to numbers. you have different sets of numbers regarding potential head to head matchups. >> that question of electability, in the case of the democrats who don't like sanders, are nervous about sanders in the general election, the case they're trying to make, this is what makes it difficult when they're up there, when you heard bloomberg talking about how tough it will be in his view for sanders to win in november, this is the average of all of the head to head polls taken this month of the democrats against donald trump. and what do you see? sanders actually, you know, 50% on average to trump's 45% on average. a five-point advantage for sanders on average. that's actually a little bit better in the average than the other democrats. they're all beating trump, you see, between one and five points. but there's bernie sanders up by five on average. so when you've got bloomberg and these other democrats saying don't nominate this guy, he can't beat trump, you heard it in the debate. this is what san

our own steve kornacki and michelle goldberg are here to talk about what it could mean for potential multiple paths for democrats in 2020, next.

we do be to steve kornacki as we always do on big election nights. d. you can see here nearly 90% of the vote now in. biden has fallen just a bit under 50%, sanders nearly 30 points behind him. from the mountains here down to the atlantic ocean, you have the same color. it is biden blue. the worst places in the state for joe biden, this was bernie sanders' best countys in 2016. this is the home of clemson university. if bernie sanders was going to beat joe biden anywhere in south carolina it was going to be here. yet with just about all the vote here, biden is even winning here by 5 points. so,s that the recipe for total domination. you see one county not in yet. there's a large black population. biden has been doing extremely well with black voter. you expect this to be a biden county here. you can see for instance right next door, you can see some of the margins in these smaller counties too that biden is running up 61%. domination everywhere you look. 48 to 20 statewide. if you look and break this down by group here, a couple things to highlight fo

. >> steve kornacki, thank you, my friend. >>> much more to come tonight as we gear up for tonight's democratic presidential debate. we are awaiting live remarks from the debate stage including from former senate majority leader and nevada power broker, harry reid, who says that he is

i just made the mistake of running into steve kornacki backstage. don't recommend it. rst stop this hour. steve, what is going on? >> great question. you can see this is our results board. as you mentioned, we expected this thing would be full right now at this point in 2016 years ago, two-thirds of the state had reported. in the three previous caucuses before that, the winners had been declared. you were having victory speeches a this point. we have zero. in the last two minutes we heard from the iowa state democratic party. they tell us this. they say that they are doing, quote, quality control on the results that they've received. they say they are doing a, quote, out of an abundance of caution. we asked when do you think you will begin releasing results. they said there is no eta at this point. read into that what you will. again, we asked for more specifics than that. we don't know exactly what the quality control. but as we said, this is the first time in the history of the iowa caucuses. they've been doing these for half a century they are tabulating three differ

our national political correspondent steve kornacki is back on duty, remains on duty watching the numbers. i just passed steve in the hallway. he was rather excited at a new tranche of numbers just in to us. steve? >> there it is, brian. i was told it was on the way when i saw you in the hallway, and here it is. we're now up to 96% reporting in iowa. only a few precincts left to come in. but there is some sudden last-minute suspense in this. i want to explain this to you. you know how complicated these caucuses are. but let me take you through where we stand now and why there suddenly is some suspense. this is what you've been seeing. buttigieg leading sanders. it is .7 of a percent here. 26.4 to 25.7. when we say he's leading, what are we talking about? we're talking about these numbers right here. 549 for buttigieg. 533 for sanders. what are these? these are what they call state delegate equivalents. delegate equivalents. you probably heard that term once or twice over the last few days. that's the unit of measurement they use to determine the winner of the iowa caucuses. they use that

but here i am taking advantage of -- steve kornacki, again, all his fault. direct all of your calls to steve kornacki. i'm kidding. couldn't be a nicer guy. couldn't be someone silently suffering more tonight than steve kornacki. >> well, we thought we had prepared for every contingency. this is the one we didn't prepare for actually, so we're trying to piece it together with all of you. the one thing i would add quickly is you think about the value of winning the iowa caucuses. traditionally you were talking about perhaps the candidate coming down and addressing a television audience while there's still a lot of people watching. that is part of the value of iowa traditionally. caucuses in 2008, he said, this day would never come. that was hours ago at this point. we're at the point right now we don't know if we're going to start getting results in a few minutes f. there's a winner declared in this thing overnight, do you lose some of that value as well that comes with the prime time audience watching you declared the winner and getting to speak to the count

steve kornacki at the big board. start us out with what we're seeing so far with polls closing by 8:00 p.m. >> we've got first poll closings in less than an hour. >> what we have now is the exit poll taking shame. we've been out all day taking surveys. there are more that we'll be surveying. the numbers i'm about to show you, i want to say, be very clear up front. they could change. what we see now is what our look of new hampshire is. there are a few things that jump out. number one is the age. how age makes a huge difference. there are candidates cleaning up among older voters. the make-up we're seeing in this exit poll is 33%, one-third over the 65 or older. and at the other end, 11% 18-29. why i say it is so important, whether this changes and if it changes, this number, this 18 to 29, that would be markedly lower than the number in 2016 when bernie sanders won this state by 22 points. that number was 19% then in this initial exit polling. it is 11. does that go up? it is sitting at 33 right now. does that go dow

issue head on when he speaks here in chattanooga in a few hours. >> josh lederman, thank you. >>> steve kornacki steve, when you look at the delegate count, michael bloomberg has zero, he has none. what's the path to the nomination if he ignores the first four states? >> these are the first four, we talk about the february stand a alone contests -- >> three days after south carolina. >> only a couple of days, we'll barely be digesting the south carolina results and super tuesday and then the pledged delegates that are up for grabs that day, 1,357. put this in some perspective. we had two cop tests -- contests and iowa and nevada. and pete buttigieg has 23. in second place, bernie sanders has 21. 1,357 on this day as josh says, bloomberg is barraging the airwaves with ads in these states right now and no one else there is. what can $250 million buy you? we're starting to get some polls. the poll -- you don't poll these states like in south carolina and it's the first poll in arkansas i have seen in a long time. guess who was in first place? michael bloomberg. it gives you a hint potentially at wh

steve kornacki at the big board, whose insight is even more critical than usual, if that's possible, in helping to figure out just what happened last night in iowa. hey, steve. >> brian, how you doing? yeah, so what happened and how do we have this more to come in, but this discrepancy right now where one candidate is leading the state delegate total and another candidate leading that initial vote in that second round. there are two reasons for it. and let me take you through how to look at this. what you're seeing on your screen, that is the state delegate total. but let's start at the beginning. this is what it looked like with the vote that's come in. again, so far 62% of precincts. this is what it looked like when folks showed up at their caucus sites last night in their precincts. it's a lead of #,03,000 for sans in the first preference. klobuchar and yang come into play, because in those spring s precincts, if you're not hitting 15%, your supporters become free agents and they have a second round of voting. same precincts, when you went through that second round, it changed. but

i will point out steve kornacki not only relying on the apps.is the old school, the papers. >> paper backup. >> ya of. >> just like they do in nevada supposedly. >> steve and the whole gang tomorrow, a big saturday. thanks as always for watching us. katy tur picks up right after this break. could even help you with homeowners... oh! not again! oh, thanks! you know automated lights are just the beginning. pretty soon they're gonna have eyes... everywhere. well goodnight. geico. over 75 years of savings and service. a clear plan for retirement to help cover the essentials, as well as all the things you want to do. because when you have a retirement partner who gives you clarity at every step, there's nothing to stop you from moving forward. yes. yes. yeah sure. yes yes. yeah, yeah no problem. yes. yes, yes a thousand times yes! discover. accepted at over 95% of places in the u.s. discover. sleep this amazing? that's a zzzquil pure zzzs sleep. our liquid has a unique botanical blend, while an optimal melatonin level means no next-day grogginess. zz

a viewer's guide to south carolina with steve kornacki when we continue here tonight as "the 11th hour" is just getting started on this friday night. >>> we're prepared for the absolute worst. you have to be prepared for the worst, but hopefully it will all amount to very little. >> president trump, south carolina tonight as @his rally speaking about coronavirus. you heard him earlier call it a hoax. as we have learned of new cases in california, oregon, and two in washington state just tonight. on thursday the president had this optimistic take as the virus continued to spread around the globe. >> it's going to disappear. one day it's like a miracle, it will disappear. and from our shores, you know, it could get worse before it gets better. could maybe go away. we'll see what happens. nobody really knows. >> we are pleased to welcome a proud michigander, move-maker, host of "rumble with michael moore" which you can find wherever you got your favorite podcast. michael moore is back with us in our new york studios. michael, here's the thing. wdiv tv detroit, wnbc tv new york from tuscal

steve kornacki is going to help us move our sights on ahead to what is at stake. hey, steve. >> hey, brian. that's right. you've got two full days to absorb whatever happens in south carolina and then all of a sudden a third of the country is voting right there. but think about the stakes here on saturday in this race. we've talked about joe biden doing poorly in all the contests so far. he said it. he's got to get a win here. question, does he need to get a big win here? does this need to be double digits? sanders, the opportunity here in south carolina to surpass joe biden, potentially to catch him, to say he's won three of the first four. his campaign would argue, they'd say hey, we won iowa too. they'd say they won four of the first four. so an opportunity there in terms of bragging rights, but it's really this. this is what super tuesday looks like. this is what comes up on march 3rd. over 1,300 delegates. south carolina has 54. nevada, we spent all day saturday talking about nevada. 36 delegate in nevada. 1,344 up for grabs here. a week from today we're going

. >>> plus steve kornacki and michelle goldberg on what can be a pathway to a democratic victory. >>> the idea that black voters and the black voters -- that's not necessarily the case within your group, right? >>> and renewed scrutiny and brand-new controversy as mike bloomberg climbs in the polls. >> why did you say it? >> it was five years ago. >> "all in" starts right now. >>> good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. extremely dangerous moment for american democracy and rule of law because of a president who's dangerous and weak and a coward. that's the paradox of this moment. in the week following his impeachment, acquittal for abuse of power, we have watched trump constantly attempt to use his office to abuse his power. just today the president of the united states sicked his followers on a random american citizen who just did her constitutional duty to serve on a duty. she was a juror in the trial of roger stone. today, donald trump accused her of bias. now, that juror is a real person. someone who lives somewhere. has a family and a life. now she almost certainly has a tan

steve kornacki is here to talk with us, among other things, about some of the eye-population turnout numbers that we have already seen in the nevada caucuses. we'll be talking about with him about that and the latest polling and all the rest of it. but like i said, never a dull moment. as the candidates do prepare to take the stage within the hour, "the new york times" was first to report tonight that the president is preparing to start a new director of national intelligence on the job as soon as tomorrow. his name is rick grinnell. he is a trump loyalist who has never served a day in the intelligence community in any capacity. which would be a new thing for somebody appointed to be the director of national intelligence. he has only ever -- he had only ever held spokesman and communication-type roles before president trump appointed him to be ambassador to germany. while he has served in that post during the trump administration, grinnell and the state department have refused to comment on allegations from lev parnas, that ambassador grinnell was actually personally caught up in a p

maybe this is what's happening in the country. >> let's go to steve kornacki. aucuses, steve. >> we've been watching this take shape in real time. like i said, waves coming in. the latest wave just came in. if you're monitoring this, the numbers are changing in a significant way. when we got our first wave of the entrance poll, the 65 and older category was nearly at 40%. in this last wave it's come down to 30. there is more data to come, but the trend is clearly moving down on the oldest group. remember it was 28% in 2016. it's at 30 now. why is that so significant? let me show you. i have to click this one to get inside. take a look, what we're seeing 65 plus. we're seeing biden leading by double digits. er we're seeing sanders get wiped out. this is consistent. a gaping age chasm. as you see the 65-plus number come down, the biden campaign certainly when they saw an entrance poll 65 plus nearly 40, they were doing cartwheels. when you see it get down to 30, that starts to change the picture a little bit. take a look at the other end of this if i can get this

steve kornacki, as promised, is at his station at the big board with a look at the numbers. eeze the situation right now today where we are. hey, steve. >> hey, brian. this was the story coming into this debate. this was our nbc news/marist poll in south carolina. this was the big question. was the debate going to change this? biden, who has led from the beginning here in south carolina, a four-point advantage over sanders in our poll. that is much tighter than we've seen for months. biden has been ahead in this state by 20, 25, 30 points. down to four coming into this debate. obviously steyer a wild card in the state with all the money he's spending. you just had buttigieg there. you see in single digits pete buttigieg despite the early success he had in iowa and new hampshire. big reason for that. when you look here in south carolina, of course, we are talking about among white voters, you see buttigieg very much in contention there, basically tied with biden. sanders out in front. but of course south carolina is the first test of a large african-american electorate. 60% of

our chief political correspondent is steve kornacki. e're seeing in this entrance poll. i want to remind everybody there are two types of voting in these caucuses. there's the early vote that already happened a couple of days ago, 75,000 folks participated in that. we expect that will probably be the majority of all votes that are cast, and what we're going to show you here, what you're seeing hire right noere right n our entrance poll of those early voters. there are only a few same day voters in here. one thing we're going to watch as these results start to come in is if there is a significant disparity between how folks voted early, and how they voted same day. with that being said, let me show you some of the splits we're seeing. take a look at the age divide. we talk about over 45 and under 45 being a significant separating line. this is over 45, according to our entrance poll this is about 60% of the nevada democratic electorate. what you see is a cluster. you've got sanders and biden tied, buttigieg, klobuchar, warren not that far

joining me now, shaq brewster covering the sanders campaign and steve kornacki in new york at the big board. all of this polling really rich data, steve. let's talk about it first. bloomberg moving up to 19%, bernie sanders now with 31% in this national poll. that's a very big lead. >> it is some fascinating movement here. you talk about bloomberg getting on the debate stage. let's take a look at a few things that jump out here. you can say with bernie sanders, double digits over 30% now. this is somebody who has gotten a bounce, a bump from his victory in new hampshire, from however you want to describe what happened out there in iowa. he's gotten a bounce. he's got the lead. it's double digits. bloomberg has moved up significantly since this last poll. this last poll was taken back in december. bloomberg now in that number two spot in part because joe biden is going south, going south pretty dramatically in this poll. we've seen this in other polls as well. something else that jumps out and is significant, these two candidates here, klobuchar and buttigieg, buttigieg coming very clo

check out road to 270 with chuck todd and steve kornacki.ur own 2020 election scenarios at home. try the road to 270 interactive map, available on nbcnews.com/road to 270. >>> two people from the cruise ship have died. we talk to a couple that had been on the ship, still are under quarantine in the u.s. what is their life like. you're watching msnbc. that sofa on tv is iexactly what they need. and now, they know it too. that's the power of targeted tv advertising. it's smart. it grabs people's attention. then they come to my store. buy that sofa. and leave happy it's easy, and it's effective. and it's why comcast spotlight is changing its name to effectv. because being effective means getting results. -well, audrey's expecting... -twins! grandparents! we want to put money aside for them, so...change in plans. alright, let's see what we can adjust. ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. okay. mom, are you painting again? you could sell these. lemme guess, change in plans? at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. >>>

steve kornacki joins us now to break down more of these numbers.hire answer any of the big questions for this democratic party ie, which lane are they in and can they all get under one tent? >> i don't know if we have firm answers. we have a lot more clues, hints right now about where the democratic maybe is, maybe where it's going. you mentioned, though, let's start on this. how this happened last night. half of the electorate saying they decided in the final few days. that's twice the number we normally see in one of these things. how did those folks that decided at the end, buttigieg got 29, klobuchar got 24. these two more than half of the voters who decided in the final few days and remember there was polling a week ago at this time that had amy klobuchar in single digits in new hampshire. so that was a sudden and significant late rise for her in new hampshire, enough to get her to third place. one of the things you see looking at the results if you're the buttigieg folks you're saying you're a point and a half behind sanders. i think they're

chris matthews at the big board, of course, steve kornacki. nicole? >> i think a lot -- i had the job for a long time of running into the spin room and explaining why my candidate won. it's a dubious craft. tonight more than ever. i think almost all these candidates have make a claim to having an important night in terms of what they're trying to achieve. i think if you were waiting for biden to be as focussed and in command as he was tonight, you finally got it. if you wanted pete buttigieg to show a national audience why he won iowa, you got it. if you are one of the millions of people who has sort of thrust bernie sanders to the top of the national polls, you saw what you love about bernie sanders. if you love amy klobuchar, you saw her defend herself and fight, and if you're an elizabeth warren fan who wondered why she dipped in the polls, i think you saw all the fight come back in here. i think what was hanging over this was the introduction of michael bloomberg in the race. michael bloomberg's campaign doesn't really rely on the debates but he h

here with the latest, nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki. first, steve, my friends on my text chain are like, is he okay? is he getting any sleep. are you okay? >> i am okay. >> okay. >> the board is -- i'm going to ask my produce tore come over and just take this thing off the screen here so we can -- we just got brand-new results in. i'm stuck on the thing i don't want to be stuck on. i'm sorry -- >> chris, i can tell you the results while my producer adam here. meet adam, america. i can tell you the new results that just came in while we fix this. the new results are up to 92% of the precincts reporting in iowa. in basically the popular vote. okay. here it is. >> okay. >> sorry. i really apologize. this thing has a mind of its own. here it is. 92% in. state delegate equivalents, buttigieg continues to lead. the margin is 1%. now, you can see in this latest update, sander has cut the gap. 513 you see here. 3 531 for buttigieg. it's a gap of 18. somehow i just called up the nebraska primary. it was 24 before this. so he has cut is that from

steve kornacki is here and man, you have had a day. i feel for you, my friend. because i want to talk about what we're watching with less than 30% of the precincts to go. >> it was more than a day. i think we're on caucus week we're going to call this one ultimately. but yes, 29% still to report. we hope that's going to come today. we'll be able to get you a final result. buttigieg is leading right now in the state delegates that's been used in iowa. but of course in iowa this year they said we're going to give you other data. we're going to give you the first preference, what this is is folks who go out to caucus states, who do they show up to support? we actually have that data for the first time ever. sanders campaign said this is one that should count more this is the popular vote. sanders here leads buttigieg by 4,000 right now with 71% now. so the sanders claim could be more folks -- if this holds and certainly 4,000 vote lead with 29 to go that's an encouraging sign for sanders, hey, more folks turned out to support me, bernie sanders, than to support pet

joining me now is karen tumulty and msnbc national political correspondent steve kornacki. the debates were rough on bloomberg. but the bloomberg campaign infrastructure is still really strong across these super tuesday states. how do you think based on your reporting that things will shake out for the mayor come next week? >> you know, the day he announced i was talking to one of the top advisers of his campaign and he said the thing about bloomberg is that a guy with his resources can run on the last day of the campaign exactly like he runs on the first day. you know, normally, when campaigns start losing, they start running out of money. so, you know, i think super tuesday, which of course will be steve kornacki's version of the olympics, standing there at that board, will really be a test of this entire strategy that michael bloomberg has, which was skipping these first four states and assuming that he could run an air war which is how you traditionally campaign in big states like california. >> let's talk about that, steve, because we have new polling from cnn and cali

shaquille, we were talking to steve kornacki about this., basically won, in iowa. still waiting for the numbers and he is looking for a win in new hampshire that is going to give him the momentum to be in the lead seat very clearly. >> reporter: that's right, going back to iowa what both campaigns and all campaigns agree on is that it will be a tight race and the results will be tight when we get them based on the state delegate equivalence and that's not in disputd. that's what senator sanders is saying and hear from mayor buttigieg and saying that you have to look at the popular vote and he believes that he has won a very clear lead on that. that's why earlier this morning you heard senator sanders do what he avoided which is to declare the victory. listen to the explanation of why he decided to declare victory today. >> even though the vote tabulations have been extremely slow, we are now at a point with some 97% of the precincts reporting where our campaign is winning the popular initial vote by some 6,000 votes. in other words, some 6,

steve kornacki. and you can catch steve right here today, he will be hosting an iowa caucus special which you don't want to miss 4:00 p.m. eastern. and be sure to join brian williams and rachel maddow who will break down all of the results coming in out 69 iowa caucuses, live coverage begins monday at 6:00 p.m. but first, make sure to tune in tonight to "politics nation" at 5:00 p.m., the reverend al sharpton sits down with mike bloomberg tonight at 5:00 right here on msnbc followed by joy reid. and i'll be back here again at 9:00 p.m. >>> they had one job to try to get to the truth. up next, how the u.s. senate may have just broken its institution in a single vote. >> this is a political process. this is not anything judicial about it. anything judicial about it something great from mr. clean. stop struggling to clean tough messes with sprays. try clean freak! it has three times the cleaning power of the leading spray to dissolve kitchen grease on contact. and it's great for bathrooms! just keep pump

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mara gaye and steve kornacki in new york. and benjamin dixon, thanks for joining us. >>> coming up, i have special guests to help us understand a watershed moment. harvey weinstein found guilty today. what it means for this me too movement. >>> later, the trump world now suddenly downplaying that russia threat that his own intelligence services flagged. we'll get into that and the so-called enemy's list. >>> and later tonight the co-founder of the black lives matter movement joins us. i'm ari melber. you're watching "the beat" on msnbc. nothing works faster for powerful cold relief. oh, what a relief it is! so fast! there's a company that's talked than me: jd power.people 448,134 to be exact. they answered 410 questions in 8 categories about vehicle quality. and when they were done, chevy earned more j.d. power quality awards across cars, trucks and suvs than any other brand over the last four years. so on behalf of chevrolet, i want to say "thank you, real people." you're welcome. we're gonna need a bigger room. patients tha

next block we bring in steve kornacki to break it all down. right now back to the president's victory lap yesterday which started at the national prayer breakfast. conservative writer and thought leader arthur brooks spoke right before the president about the teachings of jesus christ to love your enemies. a message the president said he doesn't agree with. >> ask god to give you the strength to do this hard thing. to go against your human nature to follow jesus' teaching. you believe jeessus' teaching, , too, to love your enemies. does god to take political contempt from your heart and sometimes when it's just too hard, ask god to help you fake it. >> i don't know if i agree with you. but i don't know if arthur's going to like what i'm going to say. i don't like people who use their faith as justification for doing what they know is wrong. nor do i like people whom say, i pray for you. when they know that that's not so. >> we did a prayer breakfast this morning and i thought that was really good. ip had nancy pelosi sitting four seats away an

we have to bring in steve kornacki. steve, you finally have the numbers. you had zeros next to you for at least a day. what do we do with them? what's the take away? >> you see numbers here now, you see 100%, you don't see what you normally would, you would see a check mark next to the winner. nbc news is not declaring a winner now in the iowa caucuses, even though 100% is in. why is nbc news not declaring it, because our decision desk and a number of other media outlets have taken a look at the data, tally sheets made available from the caucuses, and they've seen inconsistencies, flaws in data. they do not have confidence this is a fully complete and accurate accounting of results in iowa. and the margin, one tenth of 1%. a difference of two state delegate equivalent. that's a tiny, microscopic difference. the closest it would be if official, the closest result in the history of the iowa caucuses. four years ago bernie sanders versus clinton, they didn't declare until the next day, margin was four state delegate equivalent, that was the closest in history

steve kornacki. u. what are you looking at? what do we got? >> finally here. talking about the buildup to this so long. look, talking about it, state of play going into this. the average of all the polls, sanders in the average is a couple points ahead going into caucus day. joe biden, buttigieg back in third. warren right there with him as well. klobuchar at 9% in the final average. so that's where it sort of stands overall. looking inside the numbers. get to something interesting you talked about minute ago. the big divide to keep your eye on tonight. the age divide. a poll from the last couple days. iowa democrats under 50 years old. 18 to 49, sanders, runaway leader nearly 40%. joe biden look at that, back at single digits. go to other end of the age spectrum to see, a sense of the scale of this divide. 65-plus, it's biden suddenly who's nearly at 40%. it is sanders who suddenly in single digits. key, which group will be represented more in turnout and key because of something you talked about ear

i'm joined by nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki. e -- >> i'm here. >> i'm watching you. i've been watching you all afternoon since 4:00 eastern. and it is a strange situation when we have three victory totals. you can pick the one you like. the first one, tell me if i'm wrong, is like a primary. in other words, people walked in, they voted. that's how they came out, with bernie a bit ahead of buttigieg. people got to reallocate. they skirmished around. some of it illegally, they depth have enough in one group, they poached a few others from other parts of the room and they got their total for viability. and then the third total is the way we used to count this, how many national delegates did you get, and pete buttiegieg wins there. i think we should start with that. why did pete buttiegieg come out on delegates when he lost two of the three contests? >> yeah, i mean, the shades of the electoral college and the popular vote, let me take you through. there are two things that have put buttigieg in the lead on the state delegate count

let's bring up steve kornacki.r about 45 minutes, back this morning and manning his post at the big board. steve, where are we right now? >> i was here a little after midnight and we got a massive change here in iowa. you can see what it looks like. you just put it up there. .2 of 1% separating bernie sanders and pete buttigieg. let me show you what happened and why there is a chance that sanders is going to overtake sanders. the key is this number under 26.2. if you can read that, 550 for buttigieg and 546 for bernie sanders. what this is, this is the unit of measurement that they use in iowa to determine the winner, to determine the national convention delegates. it is called the state delegate equivalent. the state delegate equivalent. sorry to be so arcane but this is important. this is how the winner will be decided. the margin is four state delegate equivalents. there are not many that are left up for grabs in iowa. the reason why this got so close, the reason why sanders has a chance is not to do with anythi

steve kornacki over at the board. steve, i've been told that while we've been listening to senator klobuchar, the numbers have been migrating a little bit. cutting into someone's lead. >> yeah, we can show you now basically two-thirds, you can see 64% of the state is in now. two-thirds -- remember, i think when the speech started we were talking about sanders leading by about 6000 votes statewide, excuse me. that number is now 4700, 4751 right now is the margin for sanders over pete buttiegieg. it has come down. i can tell you what probably these two candidates are waiting for, what our decision desk is waiting for, a couple of outstanding areas on this map. number one, we've been talking all night about the border, massachusetts/new hampshire border, towns near there. here's an example. merrimack came in a little while ago. we can show you merrimack, a big town between nashua and manchester. again, we've seen buttigieg do very well in these parts of the state. he wins it. what's it worth in terms of catching sanders?

steve kornacki is standing by his big board. i know you haven't slept yet. i appreciate you sticking around. of all the things and story lines that surprised you what was chief among them? >> let's take a step back here. we talked over and over about joe biden as the democratic front-runner. there was this theory that, hey, it as simple as he's leading all the national polls, he win these primaries. look at this. you don't even see himself name there. warren fourth, joe biden 8%. the former vice president, the guy who led the national polls for all of 2019 into 2020, fifth place, 8% in the new hampshire primary, not going to get a single delegate out of here. this comes on the heels of that fourth place showing in iowa, 15% right there for joe biden. again, we talked so much about poll after poll he leading this thing nationally. he looked a little shaky in iowa and new hampshire and now you say a little shakier? this question when you get 8% for joe biden, is this going to shatter what his campaign has talked about as a fire wall. watching biden fall down t

joining me now, steve kornacki, still at the board, still on his feet, jim messina, david jolly and kimberlytkins. steve, i don't know how you're doing it. let's talk about these results because it was pretty extraordinary. >> listen, we have a fun night. we got real results, a little departure from iowa. and what you see here, andrea, not 100% yet, but close. this will be the closest democratic primary in new hampshire history, closest new hampshire democratic primary. if you extended this out to decimal points, it's a point and a half separating buttigieg from sanders. sanders does get the win.s thino get to 20% and elizabeth warren and joe biden, look at that, both back in single digits. before last night, the worst candidate for massachusetts had ever done in a new hampshire presidential primary was second place. a lot of them had just won. and here's elizabeth warren buried back in single digits and the former vice president, joe biden, behind her even fifth place for him at 8%. so much of the support we had seen in polls for warren and biden in the closing days of this new hampshire ra

as i was just discussing with our colleague, steve kornacki, before we went to break, what's different change the overall delegate composition of this national race. steve. >> that's right, ari. so bernie sanders now in the lead nationally. and that lead should grow as more of these delegates are allocated. you see again here just 4% in. but it's overwhelming. it's a 26-point lead for bernie sanders here. you look at the map of nevada. i think this can be a little bit deceptive. really, almost all the vote is either going to be from washoe county around reno or from clark county, which is the las vegas area. and you see that's bernie sanders' shade of purple right there. pun of the peculiarities of nevada is right here, nye county. this is the third largest county in america by land area. only 40,000 people there. we've got one precinct from it. and tom steyer happens to be winning that precinct. so this enormous piece of real estate is tom steyer's shade and yet it is bernie sanders who is running away with this thing right now. he is doing particularly well, we're seeing in these ret

. >> joining me now msnbc's steve kornacki. we are five days out, eight candidates vying for delegates and a lot of delegates left. let's talk about what the path could be toward a contested convention. >> you mentioned it. sanders does lead in the delegate race but the bigger picture here is how long everything candidate -- how far every candidate has to go to get to 1991, how many delegates are still to be given out and especially within the next week. take a look here at how things are setting up in south carolina. you mentioned earlier in the hours, this new poll getting a lot of attention. joe biden, despite poor performance in the three contest, numbers seem to be moving in his direction. sanders now falling 20 points behind here, raises all sorts of possibilities when you move that over to super tuesday. here is what that map looks like on super tuesday, over 1,300 delegates up to are grabs right here. let me show you the polling. you have the four biggest super tuesday states. sanders seems best positioned in california

and steve kornacki, walk us through the numbers. do we have anything? >> we have a blank screen here. we have zero and hopefully we'll get something today. the only numbers that we do have are an entrance poll was conducted. it's an exit poll and primary, you're come being out of the polls in the primary, they take a survey and call that an exit poll. on the way into the caucuses, they call it an entrance poll. it's basically the same thing. we can show you the findings we got from that last night. let's look at the division we saw in this entrance poll when it came to age. something we were talking about a lot in the polling in the run-up to the iowa caucuses and something we absolutely saw in the exit polls. half of the electorate over the age of 45 years old. how did that half of the electorate say they were going last night? biden and buttigieg actually basically splitting it and then klobuchar, third, 19, warren 17. whose name do you not see here? bernie sanders. bernie sanders way back in single digits. again, this is more than half of the elector