our guy steve kornacki, he's getting hooked up right now. just watched him put his microphone on.alking over to his big board to fire it up. he's going to break down some new polls out of two key states right after this. i felt like... ...i was just fighting an uphill battle in my career. so when i heard about the applied digital skills courses, i'm thinking i can become more marketable. you don't need to be a computer expert to be great at this. these are skills lots of people can learn. i feel hopeful about the future now. ♪ >>> yeah, i am. i really -- i am looking very forward to the debate. >> president trump just a few minutes ago at the white house talking about tomorrow's debate there in ohio. meanwhile, new polling in the key battleground states of michigan and wisconsin show joe biden leading president trump in those two states, within the numbers could be signs of another big swing among a key group of voters. nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki is at his trusted big board to break it down for us. so walk us through what you're seeing, buddy. any interest

thank you. >>> i with a tonight go now to steve kornacki, live at the big board, and steve, michigansly one of the key states that we're looking at here. you also have others where president trump is basically on defense, after doing well there in 2016, according to new polls that are out this morning. >> it is starting in michigan here, you're talking about kent county, grand rapids, within michigan, trump won it extremely narrow, barely 10,000 votes, that was his marin? 2016. the story overall a traditionally democratic state. trump did better in key parts of michigan but grand rapids was a place you can see it here where republicans under trump lost ground from 2012. romney had won the grand rapids area by seven points. trump only won it by three, so when democrats talk about trying to get michigan back, that is one of the places where dasha is right now, was just reporting from. one of the places where democrats think they have an opportunity for growth in michigan in 2020. we'll see what happens, but if you look at the numbers in michigan, this is the average of every poll in th

nbc's steve kornacki is at his big board. he's tracking this particular trend. steve, is this because rewind four years ago, donald trump trailing in most polls, still pulls it out in the end. is that why folks think he'll do it again? >> that's certainly one compelling theory. take you through the numbers and show you, if you average all the polls out there together, biden leads nationally by seven points. if you look at the most recent polling that's out there on that question, not of who you want to win burks who you think will win the election, this is what you get. trump by three points more as you say saying trump will win versus biden. at this same point four years ago in the national polling average it was a closer race. at this point today biden leads by seven. at this same point four years ago clinton's lead was three points. at that point when you ask the question clinton or trump, who do you think is going to win the election. it was overwhelmingly clinton by 25 points. so when you say is it possible that folks remember four years ago, remember she w

ali vitale and steve kornacki.iden is pushing hard on the democrats game plan for trying to flip the senate he's going to be talking with senators today right? >> reporter: exactly right it's about the top of the ticket bringing along down ballot candidates, in this case joe biden trying to rally senate democrats in a call today when he speaks to the caucus before heading here to pennsylvania once again and why the battleground tripds sore important. you think about what the democratic strategy was in 2018. this is now an example of it writ large joe biden taking the kind of moderate persona that he has and putting it at the top of the ticket, hoping that it succeeds in the same way that it worked for democrats that were able to flip a lot of districts across the country red to blue and helping them re-take the house in 2018. kamala harris is coming to philadelphia, working on the campaign trail parallel track meeting with stakeholders in the democratic party, trying to make sure that they turn out and that they br

steve kornacki, thanks for that. i appreciate you breaking it down for us.s we mentioned, it is the eve of the first showdown president trump and joe biden. and right now, debate preparations fully underway in cleveland, if not completely ready, unlike previous matchups where a handshake or an elbow bump was traditionally, this debate will look starkly different. the candidates will not shake hands, the audience will be limited to 80 people, all tested for cyroronavirus and wearing masks and no post-debate spin room for interviews. joining me now, former press secretary under president obama and an msnbc political analyst, robert gibbs. robert, great to talk to you again. let's look ahead. what can we expect to see in the debate featuring president trump? i'm curious to get your thoughts on a lot of aspects of this. >> well, i think wherever you have a debate with donald trump, you should expect the unexpected. i assume that's what the biden campaign is preparing for. you know, eamon, i think the real onus in this debate is on the incumbent. i think trump ha

steve kornacki has more. >> all right, cori.to the thick of things now. let's take a look here. joe biden, where is he improving compared to hillary clinton four years ago. where is he doing better, how is he doing better. what you see here is election day 2016, this is how things turned out in the election polls on election day. trump won with white voters, clinton won big with black and hispanic voters. what are we seeing? with the hispanic voters, biden is not doing as well. trump has appeared to have made inroads with some hispanic voters. among black voters, it's very close to where it was in 2016. biden may be a tick over where hillary clinton was. this is where the change, this is where the big change has occurred because white voters are about 70% of the electorate. every seven to ten are white. right now trump leads but only by four. that's a sizeable, sizeable shift. you can see the implications. trump won every single one of these states in 2016, but right now as we head into labor day, there is biden leading trump in

steve kornacki, though, we've talked about the industrial midwest. we've talked about the sun belt, florida and arizona, those two states still up for grabs depending on whether joe biden can turn out hispanic latino voters more successfully than he is right now and actually take both of those states. but let's talk about the solid south for a moment. other than barack obama winning north carolina in 2008, i believe it was. it's been the solid south since, my gosh, the early '70s at least. think about -- i mean, think about -- we've got thom tillis in north carolina at 38%. that would be more shocking if he hadn't been mired in the 30s for most of his term. but losing by ten points in north carolina. drive south down 85 and you get to south carolina and lindsey graham, in the reddest of red states, is tied with jaime harrison and is frantically going on tv practically in tears begging people for money. then you keep going down, driving south from greenville, you know, on 85 past athens into atlanta and you're into georgia. and what's happening in the

steve kornacki breaks down the numbers. steve? >>> we've been checking in here every week.olls going? there's so much happening in the campaign, so much happening in the news. are the numbers moving? are they suggesting anything about movement in this race? so a couple different ways of looking at this. we're looking at the national picture here, trump 's approval rating, average the national polls together what is the average of his approval rating? it was 44% a week ago, so the question is did anything change in the last week? we have a few polls this week, not a lot of national, and it averages out to 44.8%, so that is a slight increase there, less than a point, but that is an increase for the president. we've been talking about trump really needing to be 47%, 48%, not an exact science here. but his approval rating needs to get into the high 40s to have a shot on election day. maybe a took a slight step in that direction this week. still would have a ways to go, though, and that's been the challenge for him. 44.8%, he can get there. can he get the extra two, three, four

fact, you're seeing of these six states, the biggest biden advantage is in wisconsin. >> wow steve kornacki, thank yo the entire country we're going to take you to london >> but first, is our country's top law enforcement officer working for americans or just for donald trump at leaf blowers. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today. don'and now your co-pilot.. and start trading still a father. but now a friend. still an electric car. just more electrifying. still a night out. but everything fits in. still hard work. just a little easier. still a legend. just more legendary. chevrolet. making life's journey, just better. ...i felt i couldn't be at my... ...best for my family. in only 8 weeks with mavyret... ...i was cured. i faced reminders of my hep c every d

steve kornacki, always great to see you.ell us what you're seeing in terms of strategy this week. >> all right. kasie, as we head into the home stretch of the campaign, you'll see clearly when it comes to the electoral college battle, one candidate playing offense, one playing defense, trying to hold onto what he got in 2016. biden, you can see the first one we have. pennsylvania. a state that donald trump flipped. no republican won since back in the 1980s. trump flipped it in 2016. new polling has him down by four points. that's the latest we've gotten from pennsylvania. the pattern continues. wisconsin, another one of those midwest states trump flipped. a fox news poll has trump down eight in wisconsin. in arizona, last time arizona went for a democrat clinton reelection campaign 96. a big lead in the fox poll for biden in arizona and also north carolina. another one of those states, trump won it and he won it -- i don't want to say comfortably, but he won it by three or four points. this wasn't a state with a razor thin m

analysis from steve kornacki at the big board is next. >>> the dnc was apparently great for the bidenampaign's bottom line. according to "the new york times," last month the campaign raised a record-breaking $300 million. it starts advertising today in minnesota. politico reports the race in minnesota seems to be getting tighter based on public surveys and internal polling from both parties. joe biden is in the lead. last week's convention was a big chance for the trump campaign to shift the momentum. did it work? nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki is right over there around the corner at the big board with the latest. steve? >> minnesota is an interesting state. the last time it went for a republican in a presidential race, 1972, almost half a century ago. when you look at the 2016 map, he flipped pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin. minnesota, a lot of republicans think, is the one that got away. check out what happened there. look how close trump came to picking off minnesota in addition to those three other states i mentioned. basically a point and a half separating

nbc's steve kornacki is at the big board.d a lot about the president's plans to try to hold on to the states that he won back in 2016. where is that campaign looking to possibly flip some states from blue to red? a lot of options out there? >> yeah, probably not a lot of options, but there's a few they've talked about. probably the most prominently, what you were talking about, minnesota. minnesota is a state that donald trump narrowly missed, by about a point in 2016. they talk about nevada. they talk about new hampshire. frankly, we haven't had a ton of polling from these states, but over the weekend, we did get numbers from these blue states that the trump campaign says they think they have a shot at flipping. let's take a look from our friends at the "new york times" sienna. new hampshire, minnesota, nevada, these three, you see narrow margins there for hillary clinton over trump in 2016. what are the new polls finding? in new hampshire, they find biden ahead. they find bide ann ahead by fou impaired to the two-point marg

here to explain it, nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki.through what we're seeing in this new poll. >> yeah, craig. some interesting findings here. obviously, you mentioned the headline number here, joe biden, the challenger, continuing to lead nationally over donald trump. you see 51% to 43%. not much of a change there compared to last month. a lot of events in the last month, but you still see an 8-point advantage, biden over trump. the last incumbent president to be trailing at this point by a margin anything like this, you have to go back to 1992, george h.w. bush. he is the last incumbent to be defeated for re-election. what goes into the advantage that joe biden has right now? one way of looking at this is we can compare some major, key demographic groups from 2016 until now and ask ourselves, where has the change been? there you can see it. what you see on the left is 2016. on the right, take a look at where things have shifted. look at the top two. we have white voters in two categories. we're always talking about how those two grou

steve kornacki joins us from the big board next. so you only pay for what you need?t get a quote at libertymutual.com. really? i'll check that out. oh yeah. i think i might get a quote. not again! aah, come on rice. do your thing. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ start your day with secret. secret stops sweat 3x more than ordinary antiperspirants. with secret, you're unstoppable. no sweat! try it and love it or get your money back. i'm a delivery operations manager in san diego, california. we've had a ton of obstacles in finding ways to be more sustainable for a big company. we were one of the first stations to pilot a fleet of zero emissions electric vehicles. the amazon vans have a decal that says, "shipment zero." we're striving to deliver a package with zero emissions in to the air. i feel really proud of the impact that has on the environment. but we're always striving to be better. i love being outdoors, running in nature. we have two daughters. i want to do everything i can to protect the environment to make sure they see th

more on the state of that state's race 57 days out, is msnbc national political correspondent steve kornacki the general election average, steve, but i hope you're going to tell me a little bit more about these battleground states, including wisconsin, which donald trump barely won. >> yeah. i figured we'd start here because let's work our way from sort of the 30,000-foot view down to wisconsin and other states like it. i say this because the national polling right now shows -- and you can see it here -- about a seven-point lead for joe biden. one thing i think to keep in mind when you see this number now and as you see it over the next few months, of course, hillary clinton won the popular vote by a couple of points in 2016, but trump won the electoral college. what that means is when you see a national poll at about a seven-point lead for biden, you can expect that the key swing states are going to be a tick or two closer than that. so you go from that seven-point advantage for biden nationally right now. this is what the swing states look like right now. you can see, look, these were six

steve kornacki, thank you very much. and monica, thank you as well. >>> ruth bader ginsburg became the first woman and first jewish person to lie in state at the capitol today. tomorrow, president trump will announce his nominee to replace her on the supreme court. pete williams is going to be with us on who is being considered. and the issues that are at stake for a generation. >>> first up, though, there are now 7 million covid cases in america. 7 million. among those cases, the governors and first ladies of both missouri and virginia. ♪ a diagnosis of metastatic breast cancer can overwhelm you with thoughts, yet also leave you at a loss for words. take a deep breath. go here: findyourmbcvoice.com >>> we are following the latest on the coronavirus pandemic, and here are the facts as we know them at this hour. the u.s. has hit another milestone with more than 7 million coronavirus cases. that is 20% of all the cases in the entire world. we don't have 20% of the world's population. california has the most cases in the co

steve kornacki is live at the big board, breaking down new poll numbers in one very important state. just out today. n one very importt anstate. just out today >> tech: when you've got auto glass damage... ...safelite can come to you. >> tech: and you'll get a text when we're on our way. >> tech: just leave your keys on the dash and we'll replace your windshield with safe, no-contact service. >> tech: schedule at safelite.com. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ start your day with secret. secret stops sweat 3x more than ordinary antiperspirants. with secret, you're unstoppable. no sweat! try it and love it or get your money back. -always have been. -and always will be. never letting anything get in my way. not the doubts, distractions, or voice in my head. and certainly not arthritis. new voltaren provides powerful arthritis pain relief to help me keep moving. and it can help you too. feel the joy of movement with voltaren. you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. feel the joy of movement you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech

i'm steve kornacki in for brian williams, who has the night off.trump administration and 63 days to go now until the presidential election.

steve kornacki, to you. there is a slew of polls that have come out showing the race may be tightening, sources i talked to in both campaigns acknowledged the reality of that, steve. what can you tell us about sort of how that is? >> this has been the $64,000 question there since the end of the republican convention. we had a few, we're getting several more today. let me show you those first and then put them in context with everything else we have seen this week, so the new one, one of the two big new ones this morning, grenell college in iowa, the pollster there, jay ann selser this is a significant poll, joe biden leading nationally by eight points, 49-41% over donald trump. also out this morning, a "usa today" suffolk poll, the lead there, 7 points for biden, 50-43. so 8 and 7. as i mentioned, we have seen a few others this week, some of them were a little closer, so let's look at how the polling average looks. what is the trajectory there? a month ago, the average of all the polls put joe biden ahead on

immediately after this show, i will be joined by kasie hunt, jacob soboroff, steve kornacki, and ther reporters at 11:00 eastern again, stick around. half an hour, right here, msnbc. >>> this morning, back here in washington, you have president trump really going after his own fbi director yet again why? the president's taking issue with two warnings that chris wray delivered in his testimony before congress. first, on the issue of russia, right now, actively interfering in our election. ken delany joins me to break it down what is the back and forth all about and give us the reality check. >> to put it bluntly, president trump does not appreciate that fbi director christopher wray continues to plainly state the facts about two issues that really stick in president trump's crawl. that is foreign election interference and the source of protester violence let's take a listen to what christopher wray told congress about russian election interference. >> the intelligence community's consensus is that russia continues to try to influence our elections, to primarily to denigrate vice presi

joining me now from the big board is steve kornacki. a look at the strategies these campaigns are using to get to 270 and we're seeing it some of it today in the states where they're appearing. >> absolutely. let's take a look at two levels here, first of all, this is big picture, this is national polling right now the average is basically a seven-point lead for joe biden. that's pretty steady, it's been around there for a little while right now. one thing to keep in mind if you see a biden lead of seven nationally and you take a look at the big swing states, probably going to be closer than 7, remember in 2016, trump lost the popular vote by a couple of points but he won all of these states, you see here. this is the 2016 result. trump won all six of the states here you in 2016 while losing the popular vote nationally. the national polls show 7 points right now. the swing states are closer. we also see blue for biden in each one of these six states. all trump states in 2016, all states where biden leads right now, of course the margin t

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nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki is at the big board. steve, what can you tell us? >> yeah, katy, this is something we're looking forward to doing every week between now and the election. just taking a look out there, with all of the headlines, all of the predictions, all of the forecasts, all of the things that candidates are saying. what's actually changing in the numbers? is anything changing in the numbers? let's take a look at it a couple different ways. first of all, let's look at the president's job approval rating. the average job approval rating. all the different national polls floating out there, if you average them together, a week ago, donald trump's average approval rating, the real clear average was 44.3%. that was a week ago. so now, today, where is it? 44.0%. what has changed this week is there has been a very, very slight .3% drop in donald trump's approval rating. from 44.3 to 44.0. that's his approval rating. how about the horse race? how about trump versus biden? the average of the national polls there. a week ago, jo

also in new york, steve kornacki. so, josh, the president may be shrugging off all this up reporting about problems, but what is the state of the race for the campaign right now? >> reporter: as this new poll shows, katy, this is a neck-and-neck race for trump and biden in florida, with trump really needing to make up some ground with older voters while former vice president joe biden needs to brophy hess number with hispanics in florida. we spoke earl we are with trump campaign officials, where they do -- but now, katy, they are also walking us through multiple scenarios for president trump to get over that 27 on threshold to win the white house without winning florida and the 29 electoral votes, a sign, katy, they are not taking for granted that president trump will necessarily win here. >> what about the financial disadvantage that the "new york times" is reporting about with the trump campaign? what more can you tell us about that? >> reporter: that's right, the "new york times" analysis showing out of the $1.1 mi

joining me is national political correspondent steve kornacki.n you break down these numbers, where does president trump stand in his bid for re-election versus previous incumbents presidents in. >> a tour through modern history, since 1980. every other incumbent president like trump took the stage for their first debate, we're going to go here from the strongest to the weakest just in terms of where they stood going into that debate. this was the strongest candidate for re-election heading into a first debate, ronald reagan '84 against walter mondale, bill clinton in '96 ahead of bob dole by 20. it starts to get closer when you look at bush and kerry in 2004, bush came in ahead by 6. kerry by most accounts won that first debate, race tightened even more after that, 2012, obama romney came into that debate, obama was clinging to a three-point lead. an incumbent who was trailing, jimmy carter, 1980, a week before election day, by the way this 1980, reagan/carter, the last one in cleveland, last general election debate in cleveland before tonight.

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msnbc's continuing coverage picks up with my colleague steve kornacki right now. >> good evening.snbc headquarters in new york, and we are now 57 days away from the presidential election. labor day means there is now a full core press underway from both campaigns. all four nominees, two for president, two for vice-president were out in full messaging mode today. the president speaking from the white house. joe biden in the battle ground state of pennsylvania and the vice-presidential candidate, each of them in the critical state of wisconsin. this afternoon trump defended his handling of the coronavirus and continued to talk up the possibility of a coming vaccine while also attacking senator kamala harris for saying that she wouldn't necessarily trust a vaccine that's been approved by the trump administration before election day. >> under my leadership we'll produce a vaccine in record time. biden and his very liberal running mate, the most liberal person in congress, by the way, is not a competent person in my opinion, would destroy this

nbc's steve kornacki sifts through polls in a way no one else can. k it all down for us. what are we seeing in iowa, steve? let's start there and then we'll go to jar gentleman? >> what she's talking about is a gender gap. the size of the gender gap there. first of all, the bottom line, iowa is not a state -- when which talk about all the different battlegrounds that will decide the electoral college, we haven't talked a lot about iowa because this is what 2016 looked like. it looked like trump had an advantage in the fall. election night came and he won it big. i think it cemented for a lot of people it's a big red state in the trump era. we may need to revisit that understanding of iowa. first of all, the overall result here is a tie, 47-47. almost a ten-point trump win in 2016 now to a tie. iowa, by the way, as a state has more of those obama, obama, trump counties. a third of the county did that, voted for obama twice, switched to trump. this poll suggests biden might be making inroads here. you get to the question of the jepder gap. in 2016 in io

international correspondent steve kornacki is at the big board. steve, what do you see? >> this is the national board, the polls two months out, and there's basically about a 7-point lead there nationally, biden over trump. that's pretty steady. that's about where we were a month ago. we've had major events in the last months, developments on the ground, but it's still about a 7-point lead there for joe biden. one thing to keep in mind, though, you remember in 2016 hillary clinton led twon the po vote by a couple points but president trump still won the electoral college. look at wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan, those were narrow wins for trump, less than a point he won those states while losing the national popular vote. he won all these states while losing the national popular vote. if you see biden nationally right now, you can expect those swing states to be a little closer. this is the poll average in six states. all six of these states were trump states in 2016. you have biden leads right now in all six of these states, but you see it's inside that 7-point nation

for the latest on all the polling, nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki joins me now. steve, the battleground states show some interesting movement this week. >> you can see it right here, andrea what you have is what happened in 2016, these were all trump victories, he went six for six in these states in 2016. and now, you see joe biden leads in all of them, ranging from a 1-point lead in north carolina up to 7 in wisconsin this week at least we've had a lot more polls from the battleground states than we've had nationally, in particular two states here. i would say we've gotten a lot of polls out of wisconsin this week, that's a 7-point lead for biden, based on a fair number of polls going into that average. we've also gotten a good number of polls out of arizona this week that large lead for biden, the largest in this group, 7 points in wisconsin, particularly important given what the trump campaign has been saying about the message of law and order, the events on the ground in kenosha. they believe wisconsin is a state where that will resonate for them a lot of

steve kornacki is at the big board, next. stay with us you're on "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. let me tell you something, i wouldn't be here if i thought reverse mortgages took advantage of any american senior, or worse, that it was some way to take your home. learn how homeowners are strategically using a reverse mortgage loan to cover expenses, pay for healthcare, preserve your portfolio and so much more. a reverse mortgage loan isn't some kind of trick to take your home. it's a loan, like any other. big difference is how you pay it back. find out how reverse mortgages really work with aag's free, no-obligation reverse mortgage guide. with a reverse mortgage, you can pay whatever you can, when it works for you, or, you can wait, and pay it off in one lump sum when you leave your home. discover the option that's best for you. call today and find out more. i'm proud to be a part of aag, i trust em, i think you can too. >>> the new nbc news/marist poll shows joe biden ahead in michigan and wisconsin, with a narrow lead,

steve kornacki, garrett haake, thank you.alk about throughout the night on msnbc with that. >>> coming up, the new covid hot spots. nine states seeing spikes and setting records even while the rest of the country is seeing declines. >>> first, simone sanders from the biden campaign is standing by. her reaction to the president's latest attacks on biden's ability to keep you safe. plus, will he plan a visit to kenosha? that's next. he plan a visit to kenosha? that's next. ♪ ♪ i got it all from you ♪ i'm always pushing through ♪ i know we'll make it to the finish line ♪ ♪ i know you're waiting on the other side ♪ ♪ i'm like you on-demand glucose monitoring. because they're always on. another life-changing technology from abbott. so you don't wait for life. you live it. >>> president trump is about to leave the white house for kenosha, wisconsin, any minute. before he did, he hit up fox news to get a few things off his chest. listen. >> who do you think is pulling biden's strings, is it former obama people? >> people you never h

we'll have steve kornacki at the big board. stay with us.ets complicated, a lot goes through your mind. with fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations. that's the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management. instwith vicks sinex salineons. congnasal mist. for drug free relief that works fast. vicks sinex. instantly clear everyday congestion. >>> campaigning is in full force in battleground pennsylvania. one of the three states that, of course, tipped the electoral vote to donald trump. joe biden spoke there yesterday. vice president pence is holding an event there today. the president will head back to pennsylvania thursday. trump won the state in 2016 by a slim margin. the first republican victory there since 1988. nbc's maura barrett spoke with a welder in northeastern pennsylvania, a region that made one of the largest swings from obama to trump in the country. he's one of those voters the democrats may have already lost. >> my whole family is democrat, but my f

nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki is at the big board for us., i know you've been talking to voters in northeast pennsylvania. what are they telling you? >> reporter: this is the largest u.s. manufacturer of chassises, carrying these shipping containers. they were interested in president trump's campaign message when he said he would bring manufacturing back, bring more jobs to pennsylvania and take on china. their biggest competitor is the chinese company that makes the same product. basically they're saying they're not seeing a level playing field, still unfair competition. over the past couple years they haven't been profitable over the past years and have had to lay off a third of their workers. i spoke with a couple workers here and spent time discussing what they're looking for when they go to vote in november. take a listen. >> still undecided on where i'm going with my vote, and i just have to hear what they have to say. it's a little early yet. to me it's not ability just the chinese imports. it's about the rest of the economy. >> my wh

let take a look at the numbers with steve kornacki and jeremy peters.reak down what we're seeing today. >> we've gotten a bunch today, also some others during the week that are a bit closer than those. our poll average from real clear politics, let's take a look at the trajectory of the race where all of the average of polls has stood here in the last month. a month ago, badse biden's lead nationally was 7 1/2 points. right before the democratic convention, it ticked up, basically close to 8. before the republican convention, a week later, not much movement in close to 8. now both conventions have passed, a few days have passed, you can see the average is sitting there at 6.3. so as high as 7.8, down to 6.3. it indicates some movement overall towards a tightening of the race, some movement overall towards trump. still, for an incumbent to be 6 points down at this point, we haven't been in that position for a while, where an incumbent faces that gap. remember, in 2016, hillary clinton did win the popular vote. she won the popular vote by about 2 points.

steve kornacki will break down the state of that state and how the race to 270 electoral votes looksth again just 57 days until election day. stay with us. 57 days until election day. stay wh itus . . . . some companies still have hr stuck between employees and their data. entering data. changing data. more and more sensitive, personal data. and it doesn't just drag hr down. it drags the entire business down -- with inefficiency, errors and waste. it's ridiculous. so ridiculous. with paycom, employees enter and manage their own data in a single, easy to use software. visit paycom.com, and schedule your demo today. that selling carsarvana, 100% online wouldn't work. but we went to work. building an experience that lets you shop over 17,000 cars from home. creating a coast to coast network to deliver your car as soon as tomorrow. recruiting an army of customer advocates to make your experience incredible. and putting you in control of the whole thing with powerful technology. that's why we've become the nation's fastest growing retailer. because our customers love it. see for yourself,

i'm steve kornacki in for katy tur. it's 2:00 p.m. we expect to hear from senate leadership. both parties held their weekly meetings, and each one of those sessions, no doubt the supreme court seat left vacant by the death of ruth bader ginsburg. today, the white house confirmed it will hold a nominee on saturday, the same day he's scheduled to hold a rally in pennsylvania and we learned that mitt romney the start of the bl

joining me now is msnbc national political correspondent steve korna krsh kornacki. teve, take us through the new polling, what is the polling showing us. >> brand-new poll of the state of florida, check it out. likely voters, this is what we find, donald trump 48 .. joe biden, 48%. dead heat right now. these two candidates tied in the poll. close elections in florida, they've have been the norm really over the last two decades at the presidential level in florida. everybody's kind of dug in from where they were from 2016, because inside these numbers for both trump and for biden, some significant changes from 2016, let me show you what i mean. senior citizens, florida, voters 65 and older, a vital ingredient for donald trump to carry florida in 2016. he won florida by 17 points in 2016. now our brand-new poll, a very different result, there's joe biden leading among seniors by a point, that's an 18-point swing, no democrat in 20 years at the presidential level has carried the senior vote in florida, there's biden leading by one. that for democrats is the big change i

steve kornacki, thank you so much. and also, again, when you look internally at all these polls, make shoe you watch out for the white woman vote and see how that flips. it's part of the reason why the president is focusing so much on suburban housewives. as he calls them, the white women, i guess, in his campaign. this law and order message, be afraid of the poor minorities that are coming in to be violent in your neighborhoods. see if it works. >> a day a after the president's controversial trip to kenosha, we learned we'll see joe biden there tomorrow. we'll go to wisconsin for a look at what could two very different visits. >>> first up, why health officials say how you behave on labor day could danger if there's a surge in coronavirus cases this fall. avirus cases this fall. anytime, anywhee strikes without worrying if it's too late, or where i am. one dose can quickly stop migraine in its tracks within two hours. unlike older medicines, ubrelvy is a pill that directly blocks cgrp protein, believed to be a cause o

i want to bring in steve kornacki, carol lee, mike memoli. steve, let me start with you. has been that the supreme court fight and court fights in general animate the republican base in a big way. i was on the campaign trail in 2015 and 2016 and certainly saw that. now we're starting to get a sense that has changed, right? tell us what you're seeing in the numbers. >> there is a couple of different ways to look at this. i think when you ask maybe the best direct comparison here is pew, pew research, which conducts polling on major national issues and american politics and trends. they basically ask the same question this summer and for four years ago this summer, this was interesting, they said, a list of various topics they asked voters, would you consider this issue very important to casting your vote to your decision in the election? four years ago, when you looked at it, on the question of supreme court appointments, this is the exit poll up on the screen, i'm talking about pew here, but the four years ago when you looked at this, the advantage was with trump by eight

let's look at the state of the race with national correspondent steve kornacki live at the big board.een campaigning hard this week in battleground states, steve. what are you seeing in the polls? >> we have seen a number of state polls come in this week. i think they are starting to give us a clear picture particularly when it comes to sort of the heart of trump country. those midwest states in 2016 where he rang up the score in some cases and like iowa. iowa in 2016 is a state that trump didn't just win. won it by ten points. a margin that caught a lot of folks by surprise. there were more obama trump counties, counties that went for obama twice, flipped and went for trump. there were more of those in iowa than any other state. yet, check this out. the des moines register poll is out this week in iowa showing a dead heat. trump won the state by ten points. we have seen number of polls painting a similar picture that joe biden has made some big gains there relative to hillary clinton that donald trump that split. how about this? other polls from the midwest. h show you michigan. let'

let's go right to steve kornacki at the big board. what is the story in massachusetts tonight? race started, it was supposed to be a mismatch for joe kennedy on election night. this turned into a mismatch against joe markey. kennedy has phoned markey to concede. how did markey pull this off tonight? the basic story is this, he fused two powerful coalitions in democratic politics together. ed markey, running up the store with young voters. college towns, parts of boston, parts of cities with lots of young voters, running up the score there, and there's the sanders voters on one end, warren voters, elizabeth warren supporters, especially in the suburban bedroom communities. marqu markey running up the score. that one-two punch too much for joe kennedy. thanld and this is what it was. democratic primaries in massachusetts going back to jfk in 1946, 26 democratic candidates with a kennedy. 26 wins for a kennedy, never a loss. we have to update it now. there it is, the first ever loss for a kennedy in a massachusetts democratic primary. >> and steve, alexandria ocasio-cortez was the

steve kornacki, thank you for being with us. we appreciate it. >>> we have a lot more to get to on this show including still ahead former fbi agent peter strzok. he has been a favorite target of president trump. now strzok has a warning about the president. i sat down to talk with him about it, you're going to hear that he said coming up. >>> coronavirus, spiking in college towns across the country. we are live in ames, iowa, with how they're trying to contain an outbreak at the state university there. o contain an outbreak at the state university erthe. since my dvt blood clot... i wasn't sure... was another around the corner? or could things go a different way? i wanted to help protect myself. my doctor recommended eliquis. eliquis is proven to treat and help prevent another dvt or pe blood clot. almost 98 percent of patients on eliquis didn't experience another. -and eliquis has significantly less major bleeding than the standard treatment. eliquis is fda-approved and has both. don't stop eliquis unless your doctor tells you

joining me now from the big board is nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki, and also with me is rachel, an election forecaster, analyst, and senior research fellow at the nescaseanen center. where does trump stand with white voters? >> you mentioned it, the shift we're seeing, at least in the polling relative to what happened in 2016. this is the election day 2016. white voters are about 70% of the electorate. about 7 out of every 10 ballots cast, and you see trump won them by 20 points in 2016. so where is the movement we're seeing from there to where the polls are right now? among hispanics actually, biden right now not doing what hillary clinton was able to do. there's actually been some growth for donald trump and his support among hispanics. the black vote, it's basically a landslide for biden, a landslide for clinton. this is the shift, from 20 points for donald trump among white voters in 2016 down to four right now. when we talk about the white vote, we're always talking about there's two different buckets there. white voters with a degree, white voters withou

as you went through, is there anything that steve kornacki said ooh, that was surprising. >> that supremert number, to be honest with you there's been a lot of discussion around that. one thing you've definitely been seeing, the democratic base is much more animated around the issue of the court now than, really, we've ever seen before i think that partly explains why overall biden has the edge on that issue i think what that showed me on that topic is there are some voters out there who don't seem inclined to say they're with trump right now, could fall into that with issues like the supreme court, you see their tendency might be more to the right there could be a little bit of an opportunity around the edges there for the president. >> battleground states matter the most, obviously, steve look at michigan, from an aggregation of all the polls it looked like joe biden is inching up. >> look at the electoral map here this is where it was in 2016 if biden were to get michigan, puts him at 248. if he were to get pennsylvania as well, where the polls look similar, just those two states, he w

i'm steve kornacki in for katy tur. it's 2:00 p.m. in washington, where at any moment, we expect to hear from senate leadership. both parties held their weekly meetings, and each one of those sessions, no doubt the supreme court seat left vacant by the death of ruth bader ginsburg. today, the white house confirmed it will hold a nominee on saturday, the same day he's scheduled to hold a rally in pennsylvania and we learned that mitt romney the start of the republican party holdout was a holdout no more. >> idea that the merrick garland decision was unfair and therefore it has to be made up by doing something which also wouldn't make a lot of sense which is saying to president trump you can't get your nominee either. that just doesn't follow for me. the garland decision was consistent with history. the decision to proceed with a new nominee is also consistent with history and precedent and that's where i come out. >> romney's announcement with cory gardner and chuck grassley saying they, too, support the nominee. and lindsey graham who

i'm joined by steve kornacki. i don't see you again u winly shocked very often.tarted rolling through the south by such margins, you did say this was shocking. >> yes. >> this is a delicate game. the number of states was impressive. a lot of the speculation was can joe biden keep the delegate margin under 100 trailing besrne sanders by 100. a different story as we wake up this morning. >> we should say this is the current count allocated by nbc news. there are still hundreds of delegates even in states that have been called. you still have delegates biden is going to squeeze out. you still have dozens. you still have california out there. the picture is coming into focus. biden is going to make the 15% threshold. that was the only outstanding question. with that in mind and everything we're seeing here, if biden absorbs a 20 point loss, it's not looking like it's going to be 20, even if he does, i think you're looking at a scenario where joe biden ends ahead of bernie sanders by 30 delegates. biden is going to be ahead. this was supposed to be sanders big night.

steve kornacki is at the big board with more. >> a conflicting picture but remember, we always talk about lose the popular vote but win the electoral college, win the electoral college but lose the popular vote. first of all, this is the national picture, these are the national polls that are out there, exactly a month ago to y today, this is where they stood nationally. biden was leading by 7.4 points in the national average of polls. lot of things have happened since then. democratic and republican conventions. we have just gotten a flood of polls, really in the last couple of days. where does the average nationally stand in a fraction of a point higher than it did a month ago for vice president biden. 7.5, that continues to be joe biden's lead in the national polling. now, let's take a look at the state level. let's take a look at one of the most important states, pennsylvania, 2016, that's one of the polls that goes into, anyway, pennsylvania here, fraction of a point here in 2016, trump beat clinton by a fraction of a point. what's new poll that we're seeing today in pennsylvania, fo

and political correspondent for nbc news and msnbc, steve kornacki is with us this morning. also we'll have the latest on the wildfires that continue to rage across the west coast. the death toll is on the rise. and tens of thousands of people in california, oregon, and washington have been forced to flee their homes. that and we're tracking a number of new storms developing in the atlantic. one in the gulf of mexico where tropical storm sally is strengthening and expected to become a hurricane today. >>> first, today marks 50 days until the election. 50. and 15 days until the first debate. the latest fox news national poll shows joe biden with a 5 point lead over donald trump, 51 to 46%. and new battleground state polling out this morning is showing joe biden and president trump statistically tied in several states, first in arizona for the latest poll of likely voters finds biden ahead by 10, 52 to 42%. the latest cbs news yougov poll, this one of registered voters has biden leading by three points, 47 to 44%. a tie there. in minnesota, where early, in-person voting begins