but i want to go to steve kornacki. steve, you know, ryan is talking about the real -- i would say unprecedented in many ways -- what we're seeing happen today. >> yeah, i mean, just to put this in some context here historically. this was the third attempt actually for an expulsion of george santos. the first one happened last may, was referred to the house ethics committee. the second one happened just about a month ago, initiated by some republicans in new york. that failed as you can see. and now after that ethics report came out, mid-november, added momentum for an expulsion vote, which we just had and lands at 311-114. so easily clearing that two-thirds threshold. with that, santos is now a former member of congress. he's the sixth member of the house to be expelled in all of american history. here are the other five. you can add santos to this list. and just think about the gravity of what it took to expel these members in the past. these three in the top row here, all 1861, the start of the civil war, each one of

steve kornacki takes a lok back and ahead coming up. ♪♪ >>> we will start overseas with the growing violenceide and outside of gaza. an increasing fear the war could spread. inside central gaza, israel's military offensive is systematically destroying refugee camps for a third straight day as they hunt for hamas terrorists. more than 60,000 people who had been sheltering in those camps now forced to flee south. some on foot, somen donkey carts. israel is warning it could step up attacks i lebanon, home t hezbollah militants w have been firing rockets into the northern part of that country. aew report from the united nations says violence in the west bank has gotten worse. citing the deaths of 300 palestinians, including nearly 80 children. this at the hands of israeli forces and local settlers. i want to bring in jay gray joining us from east jerusalem, ambassador pinkus, and peter baker, "new york times" chief white house correspondent and an msnbc political analyst. welcome to you all. jay, you first. before we get to the latest in gaza, start with the news we have gotten about the death o

joining us to break down the numbers, steve kornacki at the big board and mark murray. so, steve, first to you. is donald trump's strength based on the evangelical voters, other key parts of the republican base? he's been campaigning there, but not as much as some of the other candidates. >> yeah. let's look and break that down a little bit. as you mentioned, overall, here's where the race is. trump notably now with an outright majority. 51% among likely caucusgoers. an increase of eight points since october. so where is that 51% drawn from? you mentioned evangelicals. they're a huge part in iowa. this is how they break down in our poll. it's the same number. trump's at 51% statewide. 51% among evangelicals. t importantly here, if you remember back this 2016 when trump first ran, he actually lost iowa and one of the reasons he lost iowa, he finished third among evangelicals in 2016. now he has a dominant lead among them. basically doubling up his next competitor, ron desantis. so his relationship with these voters has changed a lot. by the way in 2016 as well, evangelica

>> thanks to steve kornacki at the big board. ow, democratic sort of just marsha espinosa hand back with us, msnbc political analyst and former congressman david jolly. thank you both for joining. me marsha, steve just broke down photos think about president biden, including some of their top concerns, which even though trump is only three years younger than the current president, clearly one of their deepest concerns is biden's age. over the next 11 months, how should the biden campaign worked to address those concerns? >> secretary, i think the biden campaign knows very well this will be a close election. but the polls aren't predictive. we're still a long way away from the election and a lot of folks aren't thinking about the election right now. they're thinking about the holidays. so the best predictor of how voters our feeling is going to be hell to actually vote. and the biden campaign seems to know that quite well. they're out there, talking to reuters families about what not only the biden administration has done so far bu

nbc's steve kornacki is at the big board to break down our brand new poll.l the iowa caucuses, how is it looking? >> it's donald trump, you're looking real good. if you're one of his opponents, real shaky, running low on time. our nbc news des moines register poll of iowa, likely caucus goers. donald trump not only with the commanding lead of 32 point over his nearest foe, critically, he is over 50, a majority in our poll of iowa republicans likely to attend the caucuses say they are backing the former president. if that gap isn't daunting enough for desantis, haley, they have a deal with the trend here. look at the change from the last time we polled iowa in october. trump that has gone up eight points since then. he was at 43. now he's at 51. desantis has gone up 3. that's a much more modest gain right there. when you put it in context, put it last month for desantis. he got the endorsement of a key evangelical christian in iowa, a much hyped 99 county tour of the state. he had a fox news debate with the democratic governor of california, you got a sense t

. >> let's bring in nbc's steve kornacki and vaughn hillyard with us. steve, break down this new polling for us. >> as you mentioned, ana, about a month to go. this is a poll we do in conjunction with "the des moines register." they're known for having the most accurate iowa polling. they do find donald trump with an outright majority among iowa caucus-goers here. 51%. you can see desantis, haley in double digits. way behind and just as discouraging if you're desantis, haley or any of the other candidates is the trend here. not only is trump up this big, but, as you mentioned, he has gained eight points since we last polled iowa in october. think about this from desantis' standpoint. he in particular has been trying to make a stand in iowa. since this last poll, he picked up the endorsement of iowa's governor. he picked up the endorsement of key evangelical leader in iowa. he had a nationally televised debate with the democratic governor of california that drew millions of viewers on fox, presumably many of them republicans who would have liked that perf

and as we prepare for the final sprint, nbc's steve kornacki is at the big board with a look at how weaching once every four years the big one, the presidential election year. 2024, almost upon us. let's take a look here at how politics have kind of and how the election of 204 has taken shape, and the big questions we're looking at as 2024 kicks off. first, who is going to be the republican nominee against joe biden? at the start of 2023, this seemed like a very up in the air question. you can see the trend line for the candidates. remember, at the start of '23, republicans were coming off a tough midterm. candidates had lost key races in 2022. in the start of 2023, ron desantis was running pretty close in the poll average to donald trump and look what happened. it exploded here for trump and went the other way for desantis. what happened right around here? that was around the first indictment of trump came down, from the manhattan district attorney. it almost seemed to have triggered a rally around trump effect among republicans. and that's just held all year throughout all of the leg

steve kornacki, so great.nk you so much for joining us. >>> and this morning as we just heard from congresswoman debbie dingell, there are startling warning signs from president biden in battleground states such as michigan. we went to mccomb county and spoke to a group of women who supported mr. biden in the last election, but are now reluctant to commit to supporting him again. the question is not trump versus biden is will they show up or stay home? >> a show of hands, who has decided on who they'll vote for in 2024? >> okay. so three out of five of you. why are you still undecided? >> because i want the candidate that i vote for to earn my vote. >> i will probably agonize again once i'm in the ballot box about what to do, how do i do this? >> i'm not going to vote for a republican. i'm trans. i feel like that's almost, like -- it's almost like a death sentence, but when it comes to democrats, i just don't really see anyone who really feels like they'll be a strong pick who is running. >> so are you saying

nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki joins us this morning from his big boards.hat else did we learn in this poll? >> some interesting numbers here. you take a look, as you mentioned trump leading in our new poll with the des moines register and now significantly an outright majority of republican caucus goers in iowa, 51% say they support the former president, desantis 19, haley 16, the other two in single-digits. as you mentioned as well, that is for trump a gain of eight points since the last time we polled in iowa, which was back in october. trump is the one from this list who's got the momentum, at least according to this poll, and i think what's significant about that is if you think back over to last month or so, ron desantis has been really trying to make a play in iowa to really use that as a launching pad for his campaign, and in the last month, he picked up the endorsement of the governor of iowa. he picked up the endorsement of the key evangelical leader in iowa. he got a lot of press for completing a tour of all 99 counties in iowa and participated i

>> steve kornacki, thank you so much for that report. really appreciate it. joining me again to discuss all of that is rick wilson, cofounder of the lincoln project and republican strategist. you need to help me understand, how in the world 74% of the people are more concerned about biden's age then they are the fact that you have a presidential candidate with 91 felony indictments against him? how do you understand what we just saw from steve? >> sure, i can explain that question very simply. you have a percentage of democrats who are still unhappy with joe biden. the message for them is, grow the heck up. he is gonna be the nominee, better get behind him. it's not because you're gonna magically get glenn phillips or gavin newsom, anyone else, it's up by the time it's all over, this is only one reality, it's gonna be joe biden versus donald trump. republicans will get behind trump no matter what he does or says or is. democrats are still complaining and moaning about biden's two old. well, he's the guy, he's the guy who's doing the job. he's turning it to be

let's break down the numbers on the polling with steve kornacki. >> all right. yeah. interesting new poll from "the new york times" and siena. interesting because they've done something the other pollsters haven't yet done. the match-up between joe biden and donald trump if trump ends up being the republican nominee and they polled it this way. this we see commonly. registered voters. broad pool. everybody who's registered to vote could be part of this poll and they have trump leading by two points with registered voters. that's consistent. a close race. a lead of a few points in many polls. those polls generally are testing registered voters. what the times also did here and what others will start to do as we get into 2024 and get closer to the election is likely voters. not just registered, but voters who are likely to turn out among those registered voters. it's a narrower pool and here, you see they find joe biden with a two-point lead. it's trump with registered voters. a bigger pool and biden two points up with likely voters. big part of this is the registered v

steve kornacki, thank you. appreciate it. let's talk through some of the poll numbers that steve was walking us through. specifically i want to focus on the poll i talked about as we came to you. 44/29 split in new hampshire. that's a big jump for nikki haley. if we dive deeper into this polling, when it comes to being prepared, 54% saying trump is prepared. 53%, a percentage point behind, within the margin of error, nikki haley is prepared. likable, 55% saying nikki haley is likable. the former president, 36%. is she's merging as the number two? >> i think she's been emerging as the number two in the last four weeks. i would also counsel the viewers, that's one poll in new hampshire. a poll two days before showed her 27 points behind. she's risen above desantis in many places, new hampshire. she's almost tied in iowa and in south carolina she's ahead where she was governor there. the problem for all these non-trump candidates is they don't seem to be breaking through to trump voters, to people that are locked in for donald t

steve kornacki is at the big board to break it all down. dane county, wisconsin. steve, dane county is one of seven we're focusing on. what do we need to know? >> more than 3100 counties in the country, but seven we'll pay particular election to. they offer clues to some of the key swing states and key demographic groups as well. here are the seven. we'll give you a big picture overview. you mentioned dane county. dane county, university of wisconsin, this is all about the portion of the democratic base that's been the most motivated in the trump era. college educated professional class. that's what you're seeing here in 2020, the turnout in dane was nearly 90%, overwhelming democratic. this is a test of democratic enthusiasm and energy. that's what you're looking at in dane. go to kent county, grand rapids, western michigan, a number of counties like this in michigan and across the country. these are traditionally republican counties that don't like donald trump that much. in fact, it flipped to joe biden in 2020. part of this is demographi

get those khakis ready, steve kornacki, thank you. carlos, let's talk about the numbers that steve laid out for us, and i want to ask you as to which number we should be focusing on here when it comes to looking at the state of the republican party. 112 voting to keep him and two democrats, which numbers are you focussing on and should we be focusing on as well? >> i do think it's pretty extraordinary that that many republicans voted to expel santos. this is remarkable. anytime a member of congress gets removed, it's rare, but he was removed despite the fact that he had not been convicted of any crime. that will probably happen in a few months, but that has been the standard in recent years, in recent decades. members of congress tend to be very generous with each other, very patient when they're embroiled in scandal, but the degree of embarrassment and the degree of revulsion that's a lot of members felt in reaction to santos' conduct really did convince them to take this step. so, look, i think everyone should have probably voted to

garrett haake, steve kornacki, george solis, thank you all. please stay close as we keep a close eye on this vote. >>> up next here on "ana cabrera reports." we have more breaking news today, the truce between israel and hamas is over. what it means for efforts now to save more hostages still held captive in gaza. i'm still going to eat your socks. no, you're not. get great deals on gifts that deliver excitement at chewy. liberty mutual customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. with the money i saved, i started a dog walking business. oh. [dog barks] no it's just a bunny! only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ bowel leakage is more common than you think. an expert physician recommended axonics therapy, and it gave me my life back. go to findrealrelief.com to get started. get back to doing the things you love! ♪♪ vicks vapostick provides soothing, non-medicated vicks vapors. easy to apply for the whole family. vicks vapostick. and try vicks vaposhower for steamy vicks vapors. >>> and now to the breaking news i

>> steve kornacki breaking down those numbers for us.. >>> up next, two biden cabinet members meet with mexico's president, as a migrant caravan makes its way toward the u.s. southern border. the latest on the humanitarian crisis happening there, as we speak. we're live in texas next. you know that feeling of having to re-wash dishes that didn't get clean? i don't. platinum plus is cascade's best clean ever. with double the dawn and double the scrubbers, it removes the toughest grease and residue for an irresistible clean and shine. cascade platinum plus. dare to dish differently. (son) dad. you ok? cascade platinum plus. (dad) it's our phone bill! we pay for things that we don't need! bloated bundles, the reckless spending! no more... (mom) that's a bit dramatic... a better plan is verizon. it starts at 25 dollars a line. (dad) did you say 25 dollars a line? (sister) and save big on things we love, like netflix and max! (dad) oh, that's awesome (mom) spaghetti night -- dinner in 30 (dad) oh, happy day! (vo) a better plan to save is veri

bush won the nomination. >> nbc's steve kornacki for bringing the numbers.try now, due to the moves made by donald trump, leonard leo and his cronies. what do you make of these numbers? what is going jon. >> and i understand this is iowa we're talking about, but still, look at what's happening. you look at in iowa, this is a bloc of very conservative evangelical voters who dominate the caucuses. so for donald trump, what he did with the supreme court and the judges he appointed benefits him in iowa. it's not in you get to other states, and particularly, new hampshire is going to be more interesting where you see voters are more libertarian, and they don't like the idea of doctors not able to dictate the life saving measures needs to give health care to patients, this is about health care at the end of the day, than personal liberty and personal freedom. and you're going to see the granite state come into play. and potentially be more of a factor. >> and as steve noted it's remarkable trump's surge in evangelicals. we were skeptical of him in 2017. and now he

the legend at the map, steve kornacki. >> you go bing bong. >> bing bong. >> here we are trucking. this is what it looks like when we do a news show from the road. >> i was the relief pitcher today. >> you are great, but i would be more happy if this was our viewer. i we're in brooklyn. if it's friday -- >> it's time to fall back. >> hey. >> that's how you know it's real. one take with our postal worker friends. you can follow me on tiktok at ari melber. now time for joy reid. >>> tonight on "the reidout" -- >> a lot of threats. wishing death upon me. telling me that i'll be in jail with my mother, and saying things like be glad it's 2020 and not 1920. >> it was lies from rudy giuliani and others that led to those threats against shaye moss and ruby freeman. today, shaye moss took the stand in the trial to determine how much giuliani will have to pay in damages. >>> also tonight, president biden tells president zelenskyy he will never walk away from ukraine. but many republicans are sure willing to walk away and give putin a big victory. >>> i'll talk to senator raphael warnock abo

steve kornacki will be standing by at the big board with the numbers. >>> plus, the department of justiceinst hunter biden. we'll speak with his attorney, abbe lowell, on what prosecutors are alleging and what this means for the political battle over the president's son. >>> also ahead, democratic congresswoman suzan delbene joins us live in studio. "morning joe" a few moments away. choose nexium. ♪ febreze man: i don't about y'all, but when it comes to working from home, i gotta have every part of my house clean. that means tidying up, then spraying my febreze air mist, to leave every room smelling fresh and clean. with that done, it's time to get to work. ♪ la la la la la - bye, bye cough. - later chest congestion. hello 12 hours of relief. 12 hours!! not coughing? hashtag still not coughing?! mucinex dm gives you 12 hours of relief from chest congestion and any type of cough, day or night. mucinex dm. it's comeback season. with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, my skin was no longer mine. my active psoriatic arthritis joint symptoms held me back. don't let symptoms define you. emerg

nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki is here to set it up, the deciders. >> there arenties in america, we're looking at seven over the next year that we think are going to offer some big clues about where the election might end up. here they are, the seven decider counties, quickly give you a sense of why we're looking at them. dane county, wisconsin, the university of wisconsin, massive democratic county. the question is democratic enthusiasm has been off the charts in the trump era. does that continue in 2024? democrats want to have an enthusiasm edge over rent. grand rapids, traditionally republican been moving away from trump. if trump's the nominee, does he start to win it bac erie county, pennsylvania, that went from trump '16 to biden in '20. it's more than half the state, as goes maricopa in 2024. washoe county in nevada, gwinett county, fast growing, diversifying, atlanta metro area, it's the story of georgia. we'll take a look at that, and miami-dade, 70% hispanic population, one of the first to report out on election night. we'll find out a big clue about th

steve kornacki has more in the political season ahead. >> reporter: obviously a big year ahead.politics, a presidential election year. let's take a look at how 2023 went, and what it sets up for 2024. the big question on the republican side all year has been, who will republicans nominate to impose presumably president biden? you can see as the year ends, these are all of the national polls. donald trump with a massive advantage over all of his rivals here. if it's one thing to single out here, just look at the start of the year. remember coming off of those 2022 midterms when republicans underperformed, and the trump aligned candidates lost key races. this is the trump line, this is the desantis line. they were not that far apart. here is where they separated big-time. what happened then? that is when the first indictment of trump came down from the manhattan district attorney. it seemed to trigger a rally around trump effect, only expanding his lead since then as the year ends. what about the democratic side? president biden, what kind of year his he had? he started the year,

the legend at the map, steve kornacki. >> you go bing bong. >> bing bong. >> here we are trucking.e road. >> i was the relief pitcher today. >> you are great, but i would be more happy if this was our viewer. i we're in brooklyn. if it's friday -- >> it's time to fall back. >> hey.

. >>> coming up next, nbc's steve kornacki will give us a look ahead.expect with next year's election season as president biden and donald trump are on a course for a likely rematch while independent and third party candidates could impact the race. "morning joe" will be right back. race "morning joe" will be right back coming from where i come from, i've learned that what makes a better life is having economic freedom and economic options. my name is darren, i'm the founder of justair, a green technology company. everyone deserves a liveable wage, access to clean air, access to clean water. joe biden and kamala harris are investing in our community. these policies are helping to support small businesses like mine, allowing us to really grow and create jobs. we have a president that actually just cares about the work and cares about doing stuff that helps everyday people. i'm joe biden and i approve this message. why choose between a longer life or quality of life? you deserve both. and with kisqali, a treatment for people with metastatic breast cancer,

. >> we're going to be talking to steve kornacki at the top of next hour breaking down who was voted on in favor of his expulsion. i want to pick up on where ryan left off and your reaction to house leadership, republican house leadership voting in favor of keeping george santos and his seat. >> you know, i'm not too troubled by it. i'm a santos critic. he was a one-man crime squad and i'm glad he's gone and i'm glad over 100 republican members of congress voted to get rid of him. but you have to look at the context of this. we're in a very different situation in the house. it is extremely close, and if you're the majority in control, and there's only a couple of seats between the parties that decide control, you have all the power. so politics is always first in the house, and my guess of what happened was they didn't -- the leadership, which is, yeah, he's a rat, but, you know, we got to control the -- we don't want to give up our majority, enough republicans between conscience and political fear said no, no, we're going to vote to dunk this guy, so they opened the flood gates and

shedding ligh on the iowa caucuses now just five weeks away nbc's national political correspondent steve kornacki is here to break it down. okay so five weeks to go. what does this poll show >> we do this with "the des moines register, known for having the most accurate poll in iowa. they find donald trump just other a month to go with an outright majority. 51 support for the former president. haley at 16% i think if it's discouraging to see this, what may be more discouraging is the trend. we last polled i what in october -- iowa in october look at this trump is up 8 points since that last poll. desantis only 3. think about the month desantis has had in iowa. you got the governor's endorsement. you got a key evangelical angel debate with gavin newsom, and it is not t endorsement. >> the debates >> he had the debate with gavin newsom it has not turned into measurable momentum for him in this race. >> well, let's talk about nikki haley because in other states we have seen momentum here she seems flat. what do you see? >> yeah. she moved up here in the last poll no gain since. the problem for haley

let me ask you about a question that steve kornacki showed us yesterday.sident of the united states. it maybe uncomfortable to talk about. it may not be something that the biden campaign wants to focus on, but it's there. how sgnificant will that be? >> it's an issue. we can't run away from it. it's part of what joe biden is going to be talking about. it's we have to recognize age is not just a liability. it comes experience and wisdom and capability. it's possible in a time of supply chain challenges, the war in ukraine, having the most experienced president to ever enter the oval office was a blessing for this country rather than a problem. we are in a choppy time. wouldn't you rather have the guy that's been there for 50 years who isn't learning on the job. he's the most experienced guy we have. at the end of the day, we have to sell his age not just as a liability, but also as an asset. i think joe biden has been a successful president buzz of his age and his experience, not in spite of it. we shouldn't run away from it as democrats. we have to lean in