steve kornacki is joining us from the big board to break down these new numbers. steve, a big difference from our last look in july. >> yeah, and frankly a big difference over the last year when joe biden had been the democratic candidate, generally trailing trump in polling. now kamala harris 49. the overall impression people have of her, is it positive or negative? in july only 32% of voters had a positive view. since she became the candidate, all the way up to 48%, a 16-point jump. she's the vice president in an unpopular administration. when you ask which candidate better represents change right now, harris 37%, higher than trump, the challenger, at 38%. >> how about immigration and the economy? >> this is what republicans have in this poll they can take heart from. the border and immigration and the economy, those top two issues remain advantages for donald trump by 21 points for trump on the border, nine points on the economy. that's still very significant potentially. >> steve kornacki at the big board, thank you. >>> and a major shakeup in a key battlegroun

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but thankfully we have steve kornacki, he is on the big board to help break down all of it. l right, steve, right now what are the members telling us? great to see you. >> great to see you, too. let's take a look, there's been a lot coming out in the last couple of days. first of all, you probably seen these headlines in the last couple of days. our own nbc poll had, is ahead by five, cbs had her up by four, cnn this afternoon harris by one, and many others. let's show you that average year. this is the average of all the polls recently, all of them conducted post debate. what is that net out? it nets out on average to harris by three points in the national horserace right now. of course, what we've seen in 16 and 20, the last two elections, is that donald trump fell short in the national popular vote both times. he won once and he nearly won a second time because of the electoral college. so, what do things look like in the seven core battleground states? looking at our poll averages in the states right now, and what jumps out, i think, is a bit of a north-south divide. look

we'll get more to it with steve kornacki. it's a post debate poll, it shows signs are good for harris. we'll get to that in a moment. is there a chance donald trump does end up debating. i heard someone over the weekend, a smart reporter, donald trump is like a bug drawn to a bug zapper. there's no way, the bug zapper being the debate and tv lights, no way donald trump will be able to avoid it. >> nobody suggested donald trump runs from a fight, whether it's good for him or not. most of the time you would be like, maybe you should keep low, and pay attention to it. donald trump is attracted to the lights and battle, even if he is guilty or not. for donald trump here, i think that this is one of those moments, i think to the extent to which he sees his back is up against the ball. will that be what compels him to go on the debate stage. if he gets frustrated by polling numbers in north carolina, he may be able to blame mark robinson. if he sees polling numbers, he may get frustrated with kari lake. for donald trump, he's going

first, went up go to steve kornacki at the big board. we love the big board. i want to ask you, where does the race stand now and how do some of the numbers you are seeing, how could it shape of the candidates approach tomorrow night? >> let's look at this. the big picture, nationally, this is the average of the major national polls out there right now. 47, 45 with harris with an advantage over trump. a couple things to say. this average lead for harris has ticked down a point in the last couple of days. the most recent polling nationally, "new york times" poll you were talking about the headroom slightly ahead. a pupil that had the race tied and it's gone and trump's favor to bring it down to two points. for trump at this point in the campaign coming out of labor day heading into the final stretch for the general election. it's the third straight time is been the republican nominee for president. the last two times, he was done worse than this nationally at this point in the campaign. for democrats, this is an improvement from where things were when joe biden

joining me now, steve kornacki and telemundo senior washington correspondent who's been speaking to latinoers in hazelton, pennsylvania. steve, walk us through these numbers. they show a large lead for harris but it's not nearly as large as what has been held by joe biden and hillary clinton. >> these are the exit polls from the last three presidential elections. barack obama, 2012. he won the latino vote by 44 points. 38 for hillary clinton. 33 for joe biden four years ago. now in our poll, that democratic edge down to just 14 points. so quite a trend there. what's behind it? some stark divisions among, within the latino electorate. take a look at this. a gender gap. among men, the race is tied. among women, harris with an advantage of 26 points. there's also an age gap. the youngest voters under 50. harris is barely ahead there. just a three-point lead for her over trump. latino voters over 50, that's where harris gets the heart of her support. a 30-point advantage for her there. if you layer these together, this is kind of interesting as well. gender and age. men who are under 50, that'

steve kornacki breaks down the latest polls. >>> plus, high school horror. >> no matter where you are, you're not safe. >> i never thought it was going to happen to me and it did. >> after a school shooting in georgia, the issue of gun violence returns to the political conversation. >> it doesn't have to be this way. >> i don't like that this is a fact of life, but if you're -- if you are a psycho and you want to make headlines, you realize that our schools are soft targets. >>> and binary choices. former republican congressman liz cheney and her father dick cheney become the latest high-from file republicans to endorse kamala harris. >> there's never been an individual in our country who is as grave a threat to our democracy as donald trump is. >> my guests this morning, democratic senator rafael warnock of georgia, independent senator bernie sanders of vermont, and republican governor doug burgum of north dakota. joining me for insight and analysis are nbc news washington correspondent yamiche alcindor. lauren mayk, political reporter for nbc 10 philadelphia, republican strategist s

. >>> in moments, steve kornacki breaks down the gender gap in age gap in the new nbc telemundo pollhispanic voters. ♪ ♪ >>> good day to all of you from msnbc world headquarters in new york. welcome to "alex witt reports" we begin this hour with decision 2024 and 37 days until election day. right now former president donald trump is in battleground pennsylvania where his gop supporters gather to hear from him and later on tonight democrats will hear from vice president kamala harris speaking in las vegas. today on the talk shows, surrogates for the campaigns were battling over heated political rhetoric. >> medicare for all, green new deal, crazy stuff. i am not saying she is crazy, i am saying your party is and your policies are [ bleep ] crazy. >> they have nothing on their site to talk about good for everyday americans, good for working families. >> two days after the pre- president -- vp harris made her trip to arizona, she is picking up the endorsement of former ambassador to turkey, jeff flink. >> i am happy she went to the border and i was pleased to hear what she had to say, i

joining us now is steve kornacki at the big board. what are your take aways from this poll?ways to look at it. you see harris with that 5-point advantage overall. one of the things that goes into this is a gender gap. look at this among men in our poll, trump leading harris. that's a margin of 12 points. among women, look at the margin harris is running up over trump. that's the margin of 21 points in her favor. so 21 toward harris, 12 toward trump. that's a gender gap in our poll of 33 points. that's about 10 points more than we saw in 2020 and in 2016. those elections we had historically high gender gaps for this would be significantly higher, if this is something that pans out on election day. but running up that massive margin, particularly among women, helping harris there to that 5-point edge overall in the poll. then we break it down by race. and i think what stands out on this one is the number right here. among black voters, harris leading 85-7. why is that significant? think back to when joe biden was still the democratic candidate. in the polling of biden vs. trum

i am joined now by national political correspondent steve kornacki to take us through the numbers. e, a lot of headlines here. >> certainly, kristen. the biggest. harris, 49, trump, 44. five point ahead for harris in this poll against donald trump and if we zoom out here and look at the bigger significance of this finding and we've been polling the 2024 race going back to next year and you can see these are all of the results on the left side of the screen from when joe biden was still the democratic candidate and this is our first poll since harris switched in and look at that result. >> you can see that the race has been completely reshaped since harris took the top of the ticket. >> completely and one of those things powering that lead. there is a pretty pronounced gender gap. harris is leading in our poll by 21 polls. among men, trump is leading by 12. that is a 33-point gender gap. that's enormous what we're seeing here, too. take a look at this, the debate happening in the next couple of weeks. 20% said that debate made them more likely to support harris and that might be help

steve kornacki has the results of the latest poll. >>> plus, face-off. >> are you better off now thane four years ago? >> senator jd vance and tim walz get ready to meet for the vice presidential debate this week. >> this is not about power. this is about public service. >> will the vp nominees have the last word before election day? >>> my guests this morning, republican senator marco rubio of florida and democratic senator mark kelly of arizona an wrongfully convicted man and the 20-year journey that changed both of their lives. >> i am not an anomaly. there are hundreds of thousands of wrongfully convicted people on this earth, and they are suffering. >> joining me for insight and analysis are nbc news senior white house correspondent kelly o'donnell. telemundo news anchor, julio vaqueiro. former homeland security secretary jeh johnson, and danielle pletka of the american enterprise institute. welcome to sunday, it's "meet the press." >> announcer: from nbc news in washington, the longest running show in television history. this is "meet the press" with kristen welker. >>> good sun

steve kornacki takes us inside the key battlegrounds.oubling down. >>> the debate over immigration takes a disturbing turn over donald trump's unfounded claims that haitian immigrants in springfield, ohio, are abusing animals. >> they're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats. >> it's a right-wing conspiracy theory. >> and swift voting. >> register to vote for something else, it's very important. >> taylor swift uses her voice to back kamala harris in a surprise endorsement. how powerful is her seal of approval? my guest this morning, republican vice presidential nominee j.d. vance and former democratic presidential candidate pete buttigieg. joining me for insight and analysis are nbc news senior washington correspondent hallie jackson. jonathan martin of politico. symone sanders townsend, former chief spokesperson for vice president kamala harris and marc short, former chief of staff to mike pence. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press". >>> from nbc news in washington, the longest running show in television

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steve kornacki, thank you so much. >>> joining me now is former president trump's running mate j.d. vance of ohio. welcome back to "meet the press". >> good morning, kristen. thanks for having me. >> thanks so much for being here. i want to start with the topic of abortion, the issue of a federal abortion ban came up in the debate this week including the comments that you made here on this program last month. take a look. >> if such a piece of legislation landed on donald trump's desk would he veto it? >> yeah, if you're not supporting it as a president of the united states you fundamentally -- >> would he veto a federal abortion ban? >> he said that explicitly that he would. >> here's what donald trump said on the debate stage. >> would you veto a national abortion ban. >> i won't have to. >> if you can answer yes or no. j.d. vance said you would veto. >> i didn't discuss it with j.d. i don't mind if he has a certain view, but i really didn't. >> senator vance, just to clarify once and for all if donald trump were to be elected if a federal abortion ban were to land on his desk wou

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joining us to break down the numbers, steve kornacki. he is at the big board. steve, here we go. months to go. just days from the first ballots going out. they get sent out friday in north carolina. where do things stand? >> here we go. national polling average right now, recent major national polls, harris by three points over trump. if you are a democrat, you are happy that your candidate is leading. you are happy because this is an improvement from where the race stood for democrats when joe biden was their candidate. he had trailed donald trump all year. if you are a republican looking at this poll average coming out of labor day, you could take some solace. donald trump is no stranger to this position, being behind come labor day in a presidential election. in 2016, on average, he was down by five points against hillary clinton coming out of labor day. of course, trump won in 2016. in 2020, on average, he was trailing joe biden by a wider margin. he didn't come back to win but he came back to come close in the electoral college. certainly, from trump's standpoint, three poin

joining us now is national political correspondent steve kornacki live at the big board.calendar look like? >> as you say we have the 60-date countdown until the election. it starts right now in north carolina. as you say, today those mail-in ballots are going out in north carolina and you get a look here at the calendar for the month of september, some other key days here. pennsylvania, wisconsin, virginia, michigan, battleground, potential battleground states, where in some form the voting is going to begin this month. take a closer look here at north carolina where the action is starting today. we're talking about the mail vote here, the absentee ballots. to give you a sense of the size in the 2022 midterm election, the statewide election in north carolina, 5% of all ballots were cast by mail. in 2020 in the biden/trump race that number was 18%. 2020 was the covid year. states with mail-in voting in 2020, there was large numbers there in terms of voters deciding to vote that way. that's one of the questions here in 2024. we saw 18%, 5%, what will it land at this year?

numbers now with two of the smartest political brains we know, nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki and nbc news senior political editor mark murray. steve, take it away. these are major reversals. >> yeah, i mean, when you see, as you said there, harris five points up on trump in our national poll here, to put that in some perspective, take a look, we're going back a year in time here. this is the first time we, our nbc poll, tested harris and trump. it had been biden before this. and just take a look, the biden versus trump results we found going back a year tied trump by two, trump by five, trump by two, trump by two. and now all of a sudden you have harris by five in our latest poll, so, again, just big picture how much the very basic dynamics of this race changed when kamala harris became the democratic candidate and joe biden stepped aside, about two months ago. you mentioned it as well, take a look at this, the general impression that voters have of kamala harris. asking that question, is it positive or is it negative? and it was, 32% positive for kamala harris. we polled thi

here to break down this new polling nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki at the big. also with us former clinton campaign official arlene na maxwell and former press secretary to republican house speakers boehner and ryan, brendan buck. steve, i want to start with you, lots going on in the polls. break it down, this is the snapshot but what's the story it's telling. >> let's take a look inside of what you see here. 49-44 overall national, that's the number from our new poll here. one component of this is a gender gap. we're familiar with gender gaps, it's been a feature of american politics since 1980, but this if anything like this actually is what plays out on election day, it would kind of be off the charts as far as gender gaps go. among men trump is leading harris by 12 points, 52-40, among women, harris look at the margin she's running in our poll, 21 points for harris among women. that would be a gender gap of 33 points, a 33-point difference there. again, we saw in 2020 and in to 16 historically high gender gaps, talking about 20 points, low 20s. if you were

steve kornacki is at the big board digging into the numbers. okay, post labor day, the beginning of the end. we traditionally look at it in politics. where do things stand? >> so nationally, what you're seeing here, this is the average of the polls. harris with a three-point advantage over trump. the democrats are happy to be ahead and that this is an improvement of them from where joe biden was. he was basically trailing trump in the polling all year. from the republican standpoint, they can take solace from the fact that donald trump is no stranger to being in the position at labor day. in fact, this three-point gab he has now, that's better for him than it was in 2016 when he ran against hillary clinton. he trailed by five at this point. trump of course went on to win that election. 2020, trump trailed biden by even more. almost double digits around labor day. he didn't win, but made it close in the electoral college and that really becomes the question. the road to 270. we're going to be giving this a lot of use in the next 63 days. these a

let's bring in nbc's steve kornacki now, joining us from the big board to break down the latest pollingare things looking? >> yeah, ana. here's the national average. what we've got here is all of the recent major polls nationally. what is the sort of composite when you average them together. harris with a three-point advantage nationally over donald trump. now, if you're a democrat, the good news, besides the fact that you're ahead is that's an improvement for democrats from where things were before harris became the candidate. joe biden almost all year was trailing down donald trump, so that's changed harris ahead by a few points there. if you're a republican, what you can take solace from here is this is not unfamiliar territory for donald trump. take a look here at the last two elections, 2020, 2016, the polling at this point coming out of labor day, beginning the fall rush. in 2016, hillary clinton led on average by 5 points, of course, donald trump won in 2016. and joe biden had an even bigger lead on average labor day 2020. donald trump didn't win that election, but certainly in t

nbc's steve kornacki is manning the big board at msnbc headquarters in new york. o the polls tell us going into the debate tonight? >> take a look here, chris. first, nationally, this is the average of all the major national polls that we keep here. harris, 47. trump, 45, nationally. and in a couple of ways of looking at it. again, harris, this is better for democrats than when joe biden was the candidate. he was trailing all year. and this is better for republicans, better for trump than in his two previous presidential campaigns at this point. he was down much more in 2020 at this point against joe biden. he was down more at this point in 2016 against hillary clinton. and what hovers over all of this, chris, is what we saw in 2016, hillary clinton, the democrat, wins the popular vote, donald trump wins the electoral college, and what we almost saw in 2020 again with a disconnect there. joe biden winning the popular vote handily in 2020, donald trump coming this close to winning the electoral college. the question for democrats is even if kamala harris is leading

let's discuss all of this with nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki at the big boardground state of nevada. msnbc contributor paula ramos. her brand-new book is called "defect-ers." >> let's go, steve, break it down for us. >> yeah, a 14-point lead among latinos for kamala harris. the key is, what has this looks like in past elections, recent elections? past elections, barack obama won the latino 43 point. hillary clinton, 38, joe biden by 33. look at here, that drop in that number down to 14 points in our poll. this has been one of the key questions since 2020. when we saw republicans make some gains with latinos then. can they lock them in? can they expand them? our polls suggest they very well may be expanding the polls. what's driving it? among men, the trump gender gap. and there is an an age gap, younger, under 50. harris only ahead by three points. over 50, look at that, leads by 30 points. then layer those on top of each other, gender and age. you start to see more divides. men, under 50, trump with an advantage of nine points over harris. harris leads men, ov

there's no one better to explain why than our own steve kornacki at the big board.ve, walk us through why it feels and we're told it's so tight. >> we can take a look right here. this is the average of all the major national polls that are out there right now. you do see harris three points ahead of trump in the average, 49%, 46%. but i think you were mentioning this last segment, trump has lost the popular vote the last two elections. he lost it by 4.5 points to joe biden last time around. this would be tighter, closer to what we saw in 2016 when trump was able to stitch together just enough states in the electoral college to get elected. take a look at where the battleground states stand. you see trump ahead. these are very small numbers, the overall story here, slightly ahead in arizona. a state that went for joe biden four years ago that trump carried in 2016. georgia trump by 1.1 on average there. trump lost georgia in 2020 after winning in 2016. you do see harris with the advantage in those three rust belt state, midwest state, big ten states, whatever you wan

steve kornacki's khakis are just as glorious in real life. over the course of the day jen psaki, joy reid, and so many others will give you their take on the state of this wild and crazy election. let's get this thing kicked off. please welcome to the stage, the chart throb himself, the man, you know who i'm talking about, the man with the most incredible map, the hardest working man in politics, who's on live almost 48 hours in a 24 hour day, steve kornacki! but hold on, hold on! he will be joined by the pride of los angeles katie! steve, katie! [ applause ] >> on election nights, you usually start out the night by telling us certain places you'll be looking for early to give us a hint on where this election is going. give us a clue now. what districts, what counties, what states will you be watching to see where this thing is headed? >> yeah, i mean one of the first poll closings we'll be getting on election night is indiana. we think of hamilton county, indianapolis. it's, it's a county i think that could offer us a lot of clues, but the c

. >>> coming up, steve kornacki to break down where the race stands.poiler alert, it's very, very tight. and how tonight's debate could shake things up. we're back after this. >>> welcome back to our special coverage of tonight's presidential debate between vice president harris and former president trump. we'll be bringing you the debate live when it begins in less than 25 minutes. >> and tonight will be a critical moment, and it could shake up what many see as a tight race, a deadlocked race with less than two months to go before election day. >> steve kornacki is with us tonight at the big board to break it all down. where is this going? >> i mean, close, and let's put this in perspective. what you're looking at is the average of all of the major national polls that are out there right now, a running average we keep. harris at 47, 45 for trump. two-point lead for harris. democrats like that but some context for that first of all, there's this. trump has run from behind both times he ran for president at this same point four years ago in our poll ave

steve kornacki, set it up for us. tell us how high the cliff is that we are peering over the edge of. >> let's take a look. start here, this is our average of the national polling, the major national polls that are out there right now. harris with a two-point advantage over trump, 47/45, and this gets to one of the two major questions i'm looking at as this fall campaign unfolds and certainly as election night will eventually play out. it's this. remember, in 2016, donald trump lost the national popular vote by 2.1 votes to hillary clinton, but he won the presidency. in 2020, joe biden beat donald trump by 4.5 points in the national popular vote, and trump nearly won the presidency. about 42,000 votes across three states would have kept trump in the oval office. a question for 2024 is, is there still going to be a republican advantage, a trump advantage in the electoral college relative to the popular vote? if there is, then this is a very, very uneasy advantage for democrats to have over donald trump coming out of la

definitely is. >> nbc's steve kornacki, thank you.have a daughter of childbearing age or if you are a man -- we're all worried about this. from one angle or another. >> i saw a focus group earlier this year where a libertarian said, well, wait a second, if i don't trust the federal government to handle my money, my health care, all these other things, why do i trust the federal government to handle and control a woman's body. >> to save my daughter's life. >> which as libertarians said which means it will soon be my body. again, it's a concern for a lot of people. >> let's bring in professor of history at rice university and presidential historian doug brinkley, also with us columnist for the "washington post" dana milbank, he is the author ever the new book entitled "fools on the hill: the hooligans, saboteurs, conspiracy theorists and dunces who burned down the house." >> i have to say, dana, i always go to presidential historians first, i'm a sucker for presidential historians. this is going to be the exception this morning, only b

steve -- steve kornacki but hold on. he will be joined by the pride of los angeles, katie turner. e, katie. >> on election nights, usually start off by telling us certain places you will look for early to give us a hint on where this election is going. give us a clue now. what districts and counties will you be watching to see where this is headed? >> one of the first poll closings you will get is in indiana. it is a county that could offer us a lot of clues. the complicating factor is not every county reports the vote out with the same speed. there is a lot of different places with virginia closing relatively early. suburbs of richmond and d.c., they could be tallying with the virginia beach area. it may take a while to get a complete picture. one place we can count on to get pretty complete and quick results will be florida. florida closes at 7:00 p.m. . within half an hour under state law every county has to report out it's early vote and it's male vote. that about two thirds of all the vote. anytime after that, they report out the rest, within an hour. you have tons of florida

steve kornacki khakis are just glorious in real life. over the course of the day, jen psaki , joy reid and so many others will give you their take on the state of this wild and crazy election. are you enjoying it so far? it is only september. all right, let's get this thing kicked off. you may have seen the reporting from the dnc. they are going to tell you what it was like to be there and that electric atmosphere. at first, they will dig into what is at stake in november. please welcome to the stage, the host of the reidout , joy reid and alex wagner. welcome. >> thank you. >> oh my god, i want to do this. >> we have to get the selfie. hello. thank you all for coming. how amazing is this? >> amazing. thank you, brooklyn. >> i think will jump in because what we are doing is just re- creating what happened at the democratic national convention. >> the chips would have no seat. >> they would be in our bodies. can we talk about how much fun we had quick >> we had too much fun. listen, at the point i felt bad for everybody in new york becaus

. >>> now, to talk more about the state of the race, we have steve kornacki.y, as we get through the labor day weekend, the polls have harris three points ahead of donald trump, and that's an improvement where things were when joe biden was the candidate, he was trailing trump pretty much all year. if you are a republican, you can take solace in this, trump being behind by three, not unfamiliar territory for him. same in 2016, he trailed hillary clinton by 5 back then, and then in 2020 he trailed biden at this point by more, and he came closer in the electoral college. you see in gray here the seven core battleground states. 6 of the 7 were blue states in 2020. they voted for joe biden and democrats are trying to defend them. one, north carolina was a red state in 2020 and trump is trying to defend that state. there's a lot of combinations here. for kamala harris, it involves these three, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. call them the great lake states or big ten states, call them whatever you want, and if harris wins those three states, and right now with t

i'm joined by nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki. it's good to see you. 63 days from now. you have your stamina built up? i found the spending data pretty fascinating. indicative of where they see the raise. >> and like you said, the importance of pennsylvania and how direct the path is. you hold north carolina fear trump. less than 12,000 votes in georgia and then pennsylvania. they think their opportunities there in pennsylvania maybe a missed opportunity in -- you put it that way, you can see the interest. from both campaign standpoint, the one thing to keep in mind is in either case, if you lose pennsylvania, it's the largest of the swing states for electoral votes. 19 of them. georgia 69 carolina 16. michigan 15. if you want offset a loss in pennsylvania, it requires two other battleground states. >> that's the key map. let's look at this 270 map. which we were showing before. you've got nevada, arizona, wisconsin and michigan, p does not win those. he does manage to win pennsylvania, flips georgia, and told north carolina, that

the five states that steve kornacki focused on, they were won by joe biden.e youth vote. republicans routinely win the votes of everybody over the age of 45. for kamala harris to win, she needs to win the young people and she needs to push that margin close to 60%. >> is there a divide between young men and young women? we think about it as this one group. but you just did a sitdown interview and he has hulk hogan. do you see any of that show up? among young men? >> when i started there was no gender gap among young people in the to obama elections, he had 56% of men and women. today the gender gap is close to 50 points. >> why is there the divide?>> it's a divide driven by younger men. so these are the 18-24 first- time voters who were introduced to trump and they thought of him as an antihero. someone who could be there version of what it might be to be masculine. they turn into high school adolescents and echoed and now we see them spending tens of millions of dollars communicating to younger people that government doesn't work that's all about the cult of

steve kornacki is standing by to tell us where the race stands and what impact the debate may have.acting the candidates about the recent polls? i will talk to a former prosecutor and cnn who moderated the last presidential debate has a new book out and she will join me as well. first, let's get you caught up in what's been happening. late today, harris touchdown of philadelphia for what will be a high-stakes first meeting with trump. now, as there always are in the eve of a big debate, there is a lot of predictions and expectation setting flying around about how this might go. including from kamala harris herself who at this to say about her opponent. >> he plays from this old and tired playbook.

steve kornacki. steward stephens. author of it was all a lie, a book about republican party you should donald trump. steve, we know nationally that kamala harris is leading, at least within the margin of error, but dig into the details of this poll, because that's where it gets interesting and the undercards. >> chris, a couple interesting things here that goes into this advantage for harris, number one, the gender gap, a massive gender gap, here you see among men donald trump leading 52-40, 12-point lead for trump. among women, look at the margin harris is racking up, 58 to 37. 21. a gender gap of 33 points. again, that's like ten points higher than we saw in the 2020 and 2016 elections with both featured historically massive gender gaps. >> steve, can i stop you here, when you have that big of a gap don't women generally vote in larger numbers in presidential elections than men do, that would indicate to me almost a runaway race is not what we're seeing. >> higher, we're talking very close to 50% on both, so not, you

let's bring in your national political correspondent steve kornacki to break it down.et's start with the state of the race from a national perspective as we head into this final stretch. >> yeah. here we go, savannah. this is the average of all the polls out there nationally right now. you see kamala harris, the vice president, with a three-point lead over donald trump. two ways to look at this. if you are a democrat, obviously you are happy you are ahead and it is an improvement from when joe biden was the candidate. he trailed donald trump all year. but if you are a republican, you can take solace in this. this is not unfamiliar territory for donald trump. labor day 2020, he trailed joe biden by nine. he almost came back to win that race. 2016, hilly clinton by five of labor day, he did come back to win. >> so harris has a tighter national margin. but as we know, these elections are determined state by state in these battleground states, so let's look at the state of the race right now. >> yeah, let's go through that. zen battleground states. memorize this list at ho

here to do that, of course, steve kornacki. steve, always good to see you here. let's start with the headlines here. what strikes you? >> yeah. i mean, it is that five-point advantage we have in this poll for harris over trump. just to put that in some perspective, we have been polling the 2024 race now for over a year. this is the first time we polled it with harris and trump. look at the change here. big picture. when biden was the democratic candidate, look, we can go all the way back a year. these were all of our polls when it was trump versus biden, trump basically leading in all of them and one tie, and now here's harris with a five-point advantage. it just, i think, illustrates big picture how dramatically this race changed when joe biden dropped out and kamala harris got in. >> one of things that seems to be striking for a lot of folks, for a surge in popularity, what do we know about what's behind this apparent increase in popularity for the vice president. >> it's interesting because when harris got in the race, you may remember her poll numbers did not

joining us now at the big board, nbc news national political correspondent, the one and only, steve kornacki. so where are we today, steve? >> look at it from two vantage points. nationally, this is the average of the national polls coming out of that labor day weekend. harris, 48, trump, 45. three-point advantage for the democrats. they're happy to be ahead and in a different position than they were when joe biden was their candidate. he was basically trailing donald trump all year. but for republicans, there's solace in these numbers, too, because donald trump is no stranger to this kind of a set up. labor day. being a little behind. that was the case in 2016. he trailed hillary clinton by five points at this point. won the election. 2020, he trailed joe biden by high single digits at this point. didn't win the election, but came awfully close in the electoral college and that's the next level. we'll take a look at this thing. this is where it's won or lost. seven core battleground states. you see them in gray. we're going to be returning to them over and over the next 63 days but there's

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steve kornacki, on meet the press this morning, harris' big popularity advantage. >> she's the only one, kamala harris, right now in our poll with a higher positive score than a negative score compared to trump and by the way the bottom of the list, j.d. vance, trumps running mate, the lowest score. >> inflation remains the biggest issue with trump over harris on the economy and the cost-of-living. >> we are in it to earn support of all of americans and we are going to stay focused on them economy that creates opportunity for every person, and i welcome the local teamsters who jumped on board. >> 65% of the people in your polls say the country is on the wrong track. who is best able to solve the current problem, trump by six and whose best on the economy, trump i-9. inflation, trod by eight. order, trump 21. so we've got to get out of this, on the things that matter most to the american people --. >>> in this last hour, vice president harris landed in new york city for a fundraiser. her campaign and on saturday it accepted cnn's invitation for a debate on october 23rd. trump on saturday

. >> steve kornacki is joining us now to break down the new polling, this poll was conducted in the daysters nationally, start with vice president harris, what's driving that favorability rise. >> take a look here at the national numbers, 49-44, our poll finds harris over trump. the gender gap that we're seeing, among men, donald trump is leading kamala harris by 12 points. 52-40. among women, though, look at, this it's not just harris is leading among women she's racking up a 21-point margin, 58-37 among women. now, 21, 12, that's a 33-point gender gap. if anything like that materializes on election day that's at a whole level -- never would have seen it this big before. powered by harris running up that very big margin among women in this poll. that's noteworthy as is this. zoom in here on black voters, this is traditionally a core democratic constituency. joe biden was more in the 60s. kamala harris up to 85% with black voters, much more in line with what democrats have relied on in the past and given their concern when biden was their candidate seeing this allays those parts of conce

held the premier in person eent featuring conversations from our hosts including rachel maddow, steve kornackidonnell and a lot of othersm tomorrow you can watch it all in a two-hour special airing at 9:00 eastern right here on msnbc. including my conversation with jen psaki and claire mccaskill. >> you covered the clinton came very closely and you covered other prominent female candidates. is this a sign of progress, is this a sign of a different strategy? what is it a sign of. >> i think it is a sign of progress. it is so exciting to me as someone who has broke into a business frankly where i was first the only woman in the newsroom in philadelphia pretty big town that i started out in. and in this radio newsroom, i was -- i only could get a job by working the night shift where i won't be seen during the day and i was called copy boy. i was a copy boy. so, there is a lot that has changed. >> #copy boy. >> in our profession, looking at the women leading our network, our bosses are women, and our camera people and editors on colleague and anchors. but the difference in politics is profound. i