steve leaseman. are you down there. are you going to ask question today?i'm going to ask questions. >> you are? today's big decision. also john chief economists. you got your computer down there steve to analyze? >> it works better down here than up. >> do you want to -- do you have anything to say about numbers you just heard? >> it's a good number. it's interesting. we had a dip in housing. looks like we're on the increase. the number i've been looking for is there. the november 21% increase in si single family homes. the increase in home starts has been less spectacular. the the idea it's driven by single family homes creates more confidence. rick raised the interesting point about what's going on with mortgage applications and what's happening with housing starts. yesterday that big housing number that we had as well. the big blowout. it feels like -- by the way on the way to the farm, looks like we're going to do somewhere around 3% growth in the second half. the 3.6 average with the tracking at 2.2. i don't know if john riting had a lower number for

before we go, here are steve leaseman's predictions over the macro trends in the course of 2014. >> my big call for 2014 is si synchronized global growth. we haven't had a year since 2005. 2014 could be that year with the crisis ebbing in europe, u.s. fiscal and japan central bank opening up the throttle, there's a decent chance from one of the big three since the crisis began. all of that means better domestic growth and global growth will keep the fed on track to end qe in 2014. it will do all it can to get out of the program without a spike in interest rates and a sharp fall in stock market. so it's going to lean heavily on guidance that rates be kept low through 2014 and even into 2015. inflation could be a new worry next year. it's unclear if we'll have actual inflation but it's logical it will be a concern for markets. that will present a challenge for the fed. if wages and commodities rise, the central bank could have to lean heavily against criticism that it's risking inflation. the fed will argue that with so much slack in the economy, especially in the labor market, it could