steve leaseman has more. steve? >> thanks. two extraordinary aspects to this speech that yellen gave. she was so explicit about a rate like. the second is the market reaction. let's hear what she said. everybody is talking about the march rate like. >> at our meeting later this month the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation continuing to evolve in line with our expectations. in which case, a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. >> and boom, there it's it was. saying a march rate like is on the way. she said it is likely to be three rate likes this year, confirming what the committee has said. it is nearing employment, inflation goals. the global economy strengthening and made no comment on trump policies, bringing them into the forecast. it had been down around 73, 74% after this week ratcheted it up to the 85% and then scaled back to 80%. 78. there it is. it came down to 70 minutes. the key is this rate like is baked in. what would happen if the fed didn't do it? there

let's get to steve leaseman with a rapid update on the economy. steve? >> hey, kelly. good morning.ata boosting the outlook for first-quarter gdp, the economists we survey in the cnbc rapid update along with moody's boosting their outlook by .2 to 1.6. what's important about this is we had been going the other way. there was fear we'd be going below 1%, we now look to be solidly in the 1.5%, maybe trending towards 2%. you can see the range there, 1.3% to 1.9% and q 4 tracking 1.9%. bank of america. goldman is at 1.8%. morgan stanley is up to 1.5% and moody's which puts the survey together. they're on the low end 1.3%. we're about a half to two-thirds through the first quarter. just giving you an idea and that fear we'll be below 1% looks to be fading. >> what is the average or the key number here that you're seeing? >> i think there's always a fear with the first quarter it can come in weeker because of a seasonal problem that seems to be in the data and the government has tried to work that out and fix that problem. we don't know if that's been fixed yet so we're looking at that, c

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and steve leaseman iesman is alt with us.that have already been made have already born fruit and will continue to do so, does that factor into the sentiment? >> of course it does. i have spoken often of the importance of animal spirits. i said many times that stimulus is the cheapest form of confidence. how much those regulatory changes are going to go into effect and how large they're going to be i think's open to question. a very powerful story in today's "times" making a point that in coal it's not regulation at all. >> the -- >> no, the "new york times." >> it could be "the financial times." >> you're very selective in what you read, joe. it turns out the main reason coal has gone down is natural gas is cheaper and you don't need guys with shovel anymore, there are different technolo technologies. so the idea that's going to bring back a lot of coal jobs is basically nonsense. and i think it isn't clear that there really is a thoughtful change regulation strategy that will create jobs. the look of things right now is that