the man, steve leisman, has details. steve? thanks, mandy. there is better economic data string of better economic data we've had over the past two weeks increasing the outlook for gdp in the second quarter, our rapid update compiled by moody's which is a survey of ten economists and their tracking survey, up two ticks with those better retail sales and inventories report. we're back over 3% now. suggesting that this recovery from the contraction in the first quarter is more robust. the tracking 1.9% to 4% is the range here. hfe is the top of our range. goldman sachs at 3.1%. right around average. morgan stanley, pretty close. atlanta fed which did such a good job in the first quarter, they came in expecting a very weak second quarter. now they've almost doubled where they were up to 1.9%. a lot of this gain with the consumer doing better. the may retail sales report up 1.2%. that core number that feeds into gdp, up 0.7%. combine that with better jobless claims and the second quarter rebound is looking better. we also got a report on first qu

steve leisman is here and he's going to offer us a bit of guidance and interpretation. y. >> beck thanks. the new debate now is september or december. let me give you three takeaways from the press conference yesterday. first, the federal reserve upgraded the economy from march. talked about it expanding moderately opposed to slowing down. they did, though, however, cut their forecast for 2014 by .6 point. play a little dot action here. ten fomc members see two hikes in 2015. i think we have our cnbc improved dot chart. now, guys tell me what you think of this. what we did is we make the size of the dot by the number of fomc members that are at that place. so you have seven here in march. we're at the 0.63%. you can see what happened. it's compressed this way. here's the dividing line. if you're below this line you're one hike if you're above it you're two. these guys who were all at two, some of them have come down as a result. here's some of the commentary that shows the debate out there. goldman sachs saying they're officially moving their call from september because

steve leisman joins us. he has the highlights. steve? >> thanks very much.e cnbc fed survey on day one of the fed meeting. what we're hearing is that this meeting is about the rate hike. the first thing we did in our survey, 39 respondents, try to separate people into the 2015ers and 2016ers. 92% of our group expects the fed to hike this year. i thought it was more even out there. in fact it's up where it was ahead of the april survey. let's go to the timeline here. it's pretty much the same. it's september where it was in the april survey and now it's september as well. my guess is there was a bit of a weak first quarter then we had some of the better data for the second quarter. they did push ahead when the balance sheet is going to decline. right around -- what was that? february, april, february march to may of this year to right now may of 2016. sorry, july 2016. moving on here when they think they'll hit the terminal rate it'll be 2.85. now above 3%. first quarter of 2018. here's the path that we had. remember back in september which is right around a

i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and steve leisman.35 points and the nasdaq would open down about 6 points. and check out what's going on in europe right now. you're looking at -- things are looking a little bit down after the comments that were made earlier about what's happening in greece and some debate with creditors. >> i saw stuff come back that had -- like i saw the 10-year rally on news early this morning. then i think i thought it come back. so i don't know if -- >> in the yield? >> yeah. >> all right. we'll continue to keep an eye on it. let's get you caught up on other stories. as andrew was mentioning the headlines to greece taking the front line. to meet with his country's international lenders. tsipras has been quoting as saying the revenue raising proposals have been rejected. however, officials say the talks are continuing and that explains some of the bouncing around you've seen today. we are just about 30 minutes away from first quarter gdp revisions. economists are predicting a contraction of 0.2%. also the senate is

let's get down to steve leisman. steve, what is their collective outlook? thanks very much. the business roundtable reporting this hour that ceos have downgraded their outlook for the second half of 2015 and done so sharply. their index plunged by 9.5 points to 81.3 to the lowest level since the second quarter of 2013 any lettered their outlook by .3 point. their outlook for employment declining by nine points. all of these big moves and contexts in those indices. quarterly ly quarterly, it doesn't reflect attitudes about last week's strings of better economic data that include the stronger than expected jobs report. in response to that data economists parted ways with the ceos. they became more optimistic than they had been. morgan stanley among them. our cnbc rapid update done by moody's tracking negative half a point for the first quarter which is better than it was at 2.7%. also better than it was for the second quarter. macro economic advisors writing over the weekend last week's data capped by a robust employment report for may increased our confidenc

senior economics reporter steve leisman is here with some answers. with a story that he has been all over -- bad data. >> that's one of the explanations that's out there. we want to show you results from last week that we held back. this story is so important. how productive we are, how efficient we are. it determines how much we can grow and the output capacity of the country. our survey showed three results with the number one result being bad data or bad statistics. we've talked about this a lot. first quarter data ends up being weaker than normal. it also means the productivity data is weaker than normal. that could be revised up. but then there's two other big ideas in here 23% say it is temporary. 31% say it is permanent. this 23% idea i want to associate with two economists, one who wrote the book "the second age of the machine." one thing they say is a big rush of productivity and technology means we're not so quick getting incorporated. it takes time to show up in productivity data. another professor robert gordon from northwest says we just

. >>> our senior economics reporter steve leisman is here to show us how the greek crisis could hit heres. we were just talking offline. you're going to make me ask the question -- should the greeks really just leave the euro? is that the best thing they could do? >> i think so. and for europe. i think that -- i can't think of another way, tyler, for them to solve their problems. the market can solve it by adjusting prices inside greece. politically they cannot have an outside force, as you see now what you see from that protest. you cannot have an outside force imposing restrictions. what will happen if they have their own currency they will have -- they will bear the cost of their own largess when it comes to things like pensions and they'll decide for themselves. >> i'm here with my hands. front of me like stefan on "saturday night live." if you cannot have an outside force imposing conditions internally -- >> i was in russia for six years. i saw it fall apart. it doesn't work. >> does this say that the euro is doomed because then -- you've got parties in italy, portugal and spain tha

. >>> steve leisman, there's retail we could talk about but i want to get back to what's happening againe evening before the jobs report. an interesting moment from the imf earlier today suggesting the u.s. should wait to raise rates. markets didn't seem too encouraged by that. did they just ignore this one entirely? >> there is a little contradiction going on. one of the things you talk about, you know this from fed policy and your coverage, signal value. think about what was said yesterday, the very downbeat view on the economy. not a sparkling beige book the other day. then you have is the imf saying conditions in the united states are not going to be such sufficient to raise rates until the middle of 2016. that takes off the boil this idea of a rebound. so part of what could be -- >> why is the imf weighing in at all? >> they do this more and more now. in a post financial crisis world they feel like they have this important role to play. for better or worse. i'm sure people argue about it. in terms of weighing in on fiscal and monetary policy of all countries around the world. >> i c

steve leisman is in washington for the big meeting. he joins us now with what to expect.ng to be the big meeting. back in the fall most of wall street believes the hawks, not the blackhawks the fed hawks would finally get on the board and the first rate hike would come in june. here we are hours from the policy statement and rate hike is coming. the oil danks, dollar strengthened, the first quarter the economy contracted all to combine to liftoff. here's the only question that matters. are we back on track? gdp running at a 3% rate. wage growth increasing to 2.3% year over year. that's up .3%. and the unemployment rate remains unchanged. but that's at least partly because the labor force actually grew by the most in may since 2008. some on wall street they look to be getting antsy. fed survey showing a record 60% of respondents write in saying it's past time for the fed to hike. the economy is close to full employment and there are no signs that lower oil prices have produced broader deflation pressures. fed policy has overstayed its welcome at zero says john riding. lead

steve leisman is also on the set.k's been talking. >> this is expected as rick pointed out. one thing we look at closely is the control group. this feeds into gdp. it was also up as expected. 0.7%. the slight revision to april helps a little bit. but it doesn't change the basic story that we have come back from the negative numbers. in fact, i don't know if you guys have been following, but first quarter gdp, the tracking data that we have is back to around flat right now from the minus 0.7%. >> celebrate. >> right. you don't want to get too excited and so you haven't had a massive comeback from the first quarter. it looks like you're running 2.8%, 2.9%. lucky to get 3%. be careful. the number this month is flatter by a rebound in gasoline sales. you had prices come back again. but you had pretty good numbers across the board when it comes to discretionary. clothing up 1.5%. sporting goods 0.8%. it went along with the number we saw last friday in the jobs number when we saw hiring. >> new on yields for eight-month hig

steve leisman is here to break it down. glenn hutchins is also here for the hour as well.w to define this is beyond me. i feel like the girl in exorcist. my head went around three times and what happened with the pea soup. forget that. but the proxy went up. bad it was revised down, the prior one with. we know boeing had a tough month. the headline number here is essentially a report on boeing. they only delivered 11 aircraft in the month of may. it seems like from this report manufacturing is still challenged. and that's really the story. does not seem to have gathered its feet the way the rest of the economy has from the winter months and what happened in the first quarter. the consumer seems to be coming back. housing seems to be coming back. manufacturing now seems to be dipping. and we've had some negative reports there. i'm encouraged by the automanufacturers and the sales there. that should -- we still, i think, are having two factors inside manufacturing. the decline in oil prices a big part of the top end of manufacturing growth was oil sector services and equipme

steve leisman here as well. let's start with marty and the implications. good, bad?adds more cost to small businesses. you know we want to make sure that people are paid right, but when you increase that many into the overtime bucket, it's going to put a lot of pressure on small businesses to reduce overtime hours and drive more productivity from existing workers. >> long-term don't you think what will happen is just base salaries will get reset? >> well i think so. but in the short-term it does put pressure on small business who see a positive economy right now. but now booming yet. so they're being very careful to add workers. this just puts more pressure on them to keep their expenses down. >> steve, this is the jared bernstein proposal right? >> i'm having a hard time getting behind it. when i think it through and maybe tom can help me out with this. i've been thinking about it this morning. is this idea that olympics so i don't want to engender all about this other worker you brought on. and the net result of that is a less productive worker. because the guy you

steve leisman said we're supposed to all see past the greece thing.hink you can short-term, but long-term what does the greece problem mean? it means that the euro is not as hard wired as people would like it to be. it means that come the next crisis whatever that is the referral may be weak and may get left behind. if someone falls off the boat the boat doesn't necessarily turn back for them. that's i think the signal that this could give. so politically what are they going to try to do? they will make it with capital controls. that will be miserable for the greeks but save face on all sides. so far as the market is concerned, i think this is one impediment to europe doing well. the eurozone is a value trap right now. it looks cheap compared with u.s. equities but beware. because the pros peblgtpects for growth are not great. the weakness of the euro makes it great for european exporters. but it is not something to be bought. for equity exposure stay here in the u.s. >> and how do you factor the fed into all that? >> the fed is likely going to raise