. >> senior economics reporter steve leisman is here now with more on that jobs number. how this all plays into the federal reserve. i like jim's point there in halftime report which is if they don't move in september, we're goi -- in december, we're going to drive ourselves in sane. >> this is right in the sweet spot of the fed's full employment number. maybe that number is going to come down but right now they're between 5% and 5.2%. over to the 173, that's the payroll number for august. that's below the 220,000 that was forecast but several economists, many economists, point out august has been consistently revised higher. the most revised month of the past five years. . you by 75,000. we also have positive revisions and a wage number that was a little bit higher than expectations. some of the calls made ex-post after the number came out. wells fargo, ubs, bank of tokyo, all affirming or saying they are in the september camp for federal reserve raising rates. with. september, there are good names over here in december. all these in the december camp. quickly some of t

. >>> let us know get instant analyst from steve leisman. you heard hampton.'m sure you've got a copy of the beige book in front of you. i was kind of strolling through. here's the reality -- that is positive. labor tightening. expansion. auto sales. home sales. is this pretty much putting the fed on the table for september 17th? how could they not after this kind of regional report? >> so if i could make a quick personal note as the guy who normally reports the beige book and what a solid job hampton did. i think you're right to pick out the things that hampton emphasized when he talks about wages being something that will move the federal reserve. a little caution -- the beige book is not the report that will make or break the federal reserve's decision in september. but as a piece of the evidence that the fed will use, first of all, it is a very contemporary report. it comes from -- it's also very wide. it comes from all over the country. so the fed saying that there's this issue of wages is something that will stand up and they'll take a look at. plus, thi

. >> senior economics reporter steve leisman is here now with

steve leisman has the details. >>> big news in the fed survey, first time in five years we've been doingespondents see a rate hike in the month of the survey. he's the numbers, 49% of plurality say, yes, the federal reserve will announce a rate hike tomorrow. that's unchanged from the august survey, and 43% say, no, that's done with most of that showing up in the they're not sure or they don't know. let's look at the timeline. you see a little bit of a difference here. first, the prior, remember, in the midst of all the market turmoil, the fears about china, they had push it ahead, that first rate hike to january. now it's dialled back to, it says here, november, and that's the avenue. the median, however, a solid september with 26 saying that they are going to hike rates, and you see the whole timeline's been pushed back or push earlier here. the balance sheet declined, september 2016, now is seeing in august 2016. over my shoulder here, when will the feds stop hiking rates? had been in the third quarter of 018, been brought back. and though you can see it's brought shallower to 2.69. t

for more on the data right now, steve leisman, what do you think? >> good numbers for gdp.trol group because this is actual data that the commerce department takes and puts directly into the gross domestic product report so that control group was higher than expected as rick pointed ou out, .4%, and a doubling from the prior month in terms of revision flattening gdp. the overall number is a con funding number. there's a lot of deflation in consumer goods prices right now. what i did, i don't have current data in the next chart. i want to show you the chart, and that shows is on inflation adjusted basis, consumer spending is booming, and take a look here, one is a series that not a lot of people use, but it's the adjusted inflation retail sales running at 4 .5% a year, and you see the real dollars spent, around 2% or 1%, and this is one of the biggest gaps we've seen going back. going back 15 years because of what's happening electronics products are deflating. gasoline prices are deflating. a bunch of stuff out there, prices are down. two things are happening. one is that t

steve leisman joining us now. >> who is liucy in the metaphor there?re all charlie brown. >> you might be pig pen not for any other reason other than -- >> that grateful pianist who died? i'll take that one anyway. reset the liftoff clock, folks, after an aborted rate launch, they zeroed the clock out again, raising rates, when or if it happens, and i asked the fed chair yesterday, how long will it take for all the global economic weakness and financial volatility to clear through the u.s. economic data? >> there will always be uncertainty. we can't expect that uncertainty to be fully resolved, but in light of the developments that we have seen and the impacts on financial markets, we want to take a little bit more time to evaluate the likely impacts on the united states. >> a little bit more time. a survey conducted after the announcement thanks to our vice president holding operations, he found that 64% still see a rate hike this year. here's the monthly breakdown, i promised in the last hour, 40 responsibilities, 56% put it in december, and 46% in 1

i bet in november steve leisman there's no tightening in.the bet again, but should the fed? absolutely. anyone listening to the president yesterday in front of the business round table went on for 15 minutes about how great the economy is. who is right? who is wrong here? okay? so janet yellen? did she hear that? and lloyd speaking out against rate timing. i don't know the exact stance on stocks, but, certainly, it seems like the blue bloods of wall street have not put a stop sign in front of the entry to stocks, so it's difficult to reconcile because so many with such big presence in the marketplace, whether it's from the commercial side, the institutional side, the government side, and they all have questions in the game, unfortunately, i think that's difficult. all i can say, the fed doesn't have enough confidence in the u.s. economy after almost 7 years to keep it at 0. i don't know, i don't think it's a good scenario. there's data coming out, we're looking at a countdown to 109 billion, that's actually a little less red ink, of course,