steve leisman will join us. as we head to break, take a look at u.s.ity futures this morning. >>> welcome back to "squawk box." among the stories front and center at this hour, shares of ford are under a bit of pressure now. higher incentives and lower profit margins contributing to an 8 cent miss. revenue did come in, though, above street forecasts. >>> also talk about long-term debt. japan reportedly consideration issuing a 50-year bond. that'll be for the first time and another sign that extremely low rates are encouraging longer term borrowing. and the u.s. treasury will be selling $28 billion in 7-year notes today. the auction will get some extra attention after sales of 2-year and 5-year notes earlier in the week saw the weakest demand since the financial crisis era. >>> now to today's economic agenda. there are also a few key pieces of data we're watching. jobless claims and international trade numbers, those hit at 8:30 eastern time. that's followed by the monthly survey from the kansas city fed at 11:00. joe? >> thank you. >>> the final major

. >> steve leisman, thank you very good. >> he thinks they ought to go.nd there are many, many people who think the fed ought to be going. but what they're saying what the think the fed will do. not hike until december. you can read all about all the details. but i'll be back at 8:30 with very surprising results about what wall street thinks about this election. big change. big change. >> all right. we'll see you in a little under an hour. steve leisman. >>> coming up, a venture capitalist who has been a long-time clinton supporter will join us after the break to tell us why she would be good for business if she wins the white house. as we head to break, here are some highlights from last night in philadelphia. >> we are not going to be donald trump's hate-filled america. not now, not ever. >> don't let anyone ever tell you that this country isn't great. that somehow we make to make it great again. because this right now is the greatest country on earth. >> i believe this election is a referendum on who best embodies the leadership we need to go far toget

>> whatever steve leisman says, i'm taking the under. >> ouch. >> so less than 150,000. >> yes. k i scored your thing 135k. i was waiting for steve to be the under. >> another long winded explanation. >> jared? >> 150k. and fear not wage growth. >> okay. i didn't ask you that either. but everybody's chiming in today. okay. anastasia. >> i'm going with 210,000. >> ooh! >> i hope you're right. >> that's what i'm going with. >> rick santelli. >> we're going to go 200k. 200,000. >> and the only one to just answer the question straight up. thank you very much. why are you taking the under, larry, of 150,000? >> i just think business is slumping. i think that has a bad impact. i think last month was an aberration. i get that. as steve said, you're going to get the verizon workers back. we're trending lower. >> business data has been good. all the employment numbers, they have been coming in better than expected. i think we'll see that rebound. >> the trend is much lower. it's 110, maybe 120. but they had the verizon workers and no one can forecast what the government's going to do. >>

steve leisman is going to join us with the key statements. >> just starting the q&a session.xit a headwind to the european economy. he said the ec sbrks watching the brexit economy very closely. but he says he'll be better able to assess brexit in coming months. however, he said if warranted, the ecb will use all available instruments to me this mandates to the downside he said. and one more thing i thought was interesting. he said european financial markets to this point have weathered the spike and uncertainty with encouraging resilience was the term used by mario draghi. you do have the euro was at a high. it looked like 1.041. a bit of a strength in euro because of his comments this morning. >> okay. mr. leisman, love you. see you in a little bit. >>> coming up when we return, stocks to watch. we've got earnings reports. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. >>> earnings season kicking in high gear this morning. travelers earned $2.20 a share for the second quarter. 13 cents above estimates. revenue also above forecasts. the c

we've been going through the numbers here on set with steve leisman as well. the dollar index is jumping after stronger than expected retail numbers. >> well, look. this has been not only the underpinning of the u.s. economy but the global economy. it's been something economists have been tracking. and you heard jim paulsen this morning whom he pegged the change in sentiment in the market to the indicators. i'm not sure it's a one for one thing. but he said when the surprise index went positive, that's when the market decided. so what's nice about that concept and it kind of is the other side of larry fink's idea, is that jim paulsen says there's something actual rather than air underneath the market rally here. and you see that in the retail sales number. little bit worried about the data in the sense that the auto companies reported down sales in may and showing it up 1.1%. the inflation numbers -- okay, did you get the empire state, becky? zblifs looking at a flash on the screen. >> you lost it? that's okay. we're having a little trouble with the computers o

steve leisman is here. >> looks good. u.s.d be beating expectation. may might have been revised down. back me up in the back there. i'm not used to doing this. this is rick's job and he does a great job at it, i'd like to say. looks like may was revised. so a little -- so it's a much bigger percentage increase. let me look at all the important here. and i'm looking for permits 1.15 versus 1.15 consensus. and 1.136 in may. two good numbers in housing. if i had a second here while rick was talking and bifing the bond numbers, i would be looking at the table to see where it was good and where it was bad. i've got it now. it looks like you had up -- i'm sure that's a rebound from a negative number in may. down 5% in the midwest. down 3% in the south. up 17% in the west. now i would look at the split between single family and multiple that looks like single family was up pretty good. multiple up as well. so both of them were up. so across the board, good housing numbers. they took a bit of a tonic to the disappointment we had in th

maybe steve leisman has an idea. >> i think that protectionism is inflationary, right?e competition overseas and maybe puts tariffs on. it's good to do protectionism, it could be higher prices and walmart but it also could mean it's potentially more jobs in places. you've talked about it. >> more expendable income. >> it could be with minimum wage. but just so you know it's balanced in the sense that there are some people who will benefit but also be a cost in terms of higher prices. you can have what you want, but everybody ought to make decisions on what the cost and benefits are. i've got to talk about what i think is a potentially blockbuster paper being presented today in cambridge. it suggests that bernanke was wrong. lehman could have been saved. the financial crisis did not have to be as bad as it was. lawrence ball. he's a pretty prestigious research associate and at the monetary fund which is to say no slouch. he has in a 218-page paper the fed had the authority to bail out lehman and it would have worked. they said the hole was too big. the fed could not lega