for more on the data, let's bring in steve leisman live from boston where he's been talking to fed governs do you think? >> so this is a good number for the consumer. the retail sales number up 0.6%. motor vehicles and parts up 0.1%. it's a reversal and then some from the august numbers which were revised to be slightly better. you had a surge in gasoline prices during the month. sporting goods and hobbies up 1.4%. we like to look at that to see how discretionary spending a going. i didn't like the number that is the control group. i think that number is just up 0.1%. that's the number that passes over into gdp. we'll see how folks later today end up incorporating that into their gdp. my guess is that's a bit of a disappoint. and stuff translates from this report directly into the gdp calculations. other stuffs like autos they get from elsewhere. we did get to talk to eric rosengren about rates earlier. that's something the market is going to be thinking about. here's one thing he said about hikes. >> my hope is that we do it slowly and gradually. the longer we wait, the more likely it is

steve leisman joins us with that. >> the second most jobs report politically because there's one moretion. but the most important jobs report before the fed because it's the last before the november meeting. we'll be talking about the potential impact of this storm on the jobs data next month. let's see what we're looking for this month. nonfarm payrolls up to 170. unemployment unchanged. that's a big deal. hourly wages up 0.2%. let's look at how the fed is going to view this number. the new issue is why the u.s. economy has steadily added jobs at a rate that most fed officials think is greater than the age of the working age population. but the unemployment has not fallen since october 2015. 2 million jobs added but the unemployment rate barely rose. fed chair janet yellen says there is room to run to bring people off the sidelines without sparking wage inflation. north of 3%. a sign the labor market is tightening. would also point out it's way better than 10% which is what it was when the fed went to zero. so we -- no reason for emergency rates. but many on the street, they think wh

steve leisman is here going through the data. >> none of it is ever easy. good on the claims.s. but again, what's happening in business investment remains one of the keys of the economy. as rick said, use the technical term walloped for what happened to business investment. down 1.2%. after rising 1.2%. this is a very volatile number, but it seems like we can't make any headway. we had a good number back in august. and now again it comes right back to pretty much where it was. on the top line, a little bit better. we were looking for 0.6% down. looks like we were done just 0.1%. here's the story. the bottom line i think on this is i was doing about 3% on the expectation for third quarter gdp. it's a nice number. it's a nice rebound. i don't think it continues that way because it's going to be by exports. we had that fabulous discussion yesterday of soybeans. you remember that great the way soybeans might be impacting it. we do not want to go there again the. let's say trade helped it. i still think we keep coming back to this economy with unusually strong job growth in there.

i'm joe kernen along with kayla tausche and steve leisman. to hear from our guest host in just a bit. >> i can wait. >> i'm going to give you my -- i'm going to tell you what i think. then you can tell me whether i'm wrong. then leisman's here too. and kayla. >> thanks for that. >> yeah. >>> the futures -- do we really need to? nasdaq down about ten points. and flat but down, really, over across europe. oil prices were up slightly. >>> morgan stanley rolling out results moments ago. >> so we got revenues $8.9 billion versus expectation of $8.2 billion. a big beat on the bottom line. $81 earnings per share versus expectations of 628 per share. similar to a lot of other investment. and also that comes very much on the fixed income line more than the line. where do they differ from goldman sachs? we saw goldman's underwhelming a little bit there. morgan stanley doing better on that line. where does it do worse than goldman sachs? on the returns line. roe of 8.7%. that's a nice for them but not such a big relative out performance as we saw from g

steve leisman joins us now with more. steve?red, a divided fed saying it's ready to hike rates, quote, relatively soon. but markets have come to view relatively soon meaning december, not the more relatively sooner month november. the fed split 7-3 with an unusual three dissenters voting to hike rather than than the stand. here's what dudley said yesterday speaking for the dovish side. >> i think we're at a point where the economic expansion has plenty of room to run. inflation is a little bit below our target rather than above our target. so i think we can be quite gentle as we go in terms of gradually removing monetary policy accommodation. so i think the economic expansion can last a good while longer. >> here's how the minutes described the hawks. quote, several participants expressed concern that continuing to delay an increase in the -- based on the committee's past behavior or risked eroding its credibility. markets are so convinced that soon means december that they've driven down the probability of a november hike to ju

steve leisman has the latest. >> territory hasn't seen in a little bit.urrent monetary policy cannot stay in place forever. we're off the high of that spike right there. but you can see the clear reaction when he said that. also said he did not discuss tapering or the intended horizon of our asset purchase program, just so people here know what's going on, they're supposed to sort of stop their bond purchases, their version of quantitative easing, in march of 2017 if conditions allow and the markets start to think about what happens. that's five months away. the market begins to price things six months out or so. and there was a story, a report that they might be doing tapering. what's happened is ecb has tried to say hold on a second. we got a full range of reports in december, that's a time when we're more likely to make policy. so the two comments by draghi, we didn't discuss tapering or the intended horizon of our asset purchase program is part of what's going to happen for the rest of the hour here. this attempt to dance away from answering the quest

steve leisman is with us on set to give his analysis of the data. >> it kind of feels inflationy.'s kind of a high pressure one? >> yeah. rent up 0.3% again. apparel was one of the few that was down. gasoline up more than economists expected. so the kind of commodity decline from a year ago is rolling off. this number is below what the fed is looking for when you translate it into the pce number. but you've got to take note of the idea that you have 2.2% on the core number year over year. what else is up here? services up 0.2%. i just want to show you some of what the fed has been looking at which is fed expectations. they had said market based applications were low. you can see they've been creeping up. they're still below 2%. but that was something that stayed in the fed's hand. that's kind of going away. then i want to turn quickly to something else. this is the way the show works. i listen to it. come back with more detail. which is why you've got to watch the whole show. >> very nice. >> it's a package. you guys talked about growth and the atlanta fed. here's the atlanta fed

steve leisman joins us.thought people were below two. >> i've got to look up the atlanta fed because they did not update when i updated. then they updated later. they were at 2% then the durables came out. we are at 3%, our rapid update is at 3%. the consensus is at 2.5%. and the question you want to ask yourself, are we setting ourselves up for another disappointment in i was just looking before i came on. we have disappointed on gdp -- in other words, the forecasts were below the actual numbers that came out. seven quarters in a row now for an average miss of 0.5%. a half a point. if you're doing 1% or 2%, that's a lot to miss by a half. yet, here's the thing. it later gets revised upward. so the miss is actually 0.1%. so i don't know. it's one of those slapstick things you could walk in and hit the rake and it hit yous in the head every time. >> murphy's law we the fed trying to raise in december would mean it is weak. >> so it won't happen. do you get a feeling if you look at the 10-year and the 2-year,