steve liesman is at the fed with the announcement. steve liesman?statement today. the fed saying the downside risks for the labor market and the economy have diminished, perhaps setting the stage for tapering. there were two dissent, one from the hawkish side and one from the dovish side, one from george and one from bullard. let's get to the details now. the economy seemed just like it was last time, expanding at a moderate pace, a slight tweak to the gdp forecast. back to that later. the labor market upgraded just a touch, seen as further improving rather than some improvement and same concern about the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate remaining elevated. you'll see in the fo

steve liesman is at the fed with the announcement. steve liesman? >> no taper in the statement today. the fed saying the downside risks for the labor market and the economy have diminished, perhaps setting the stage for tapering. there were two dissent, one from the hawkish side and one from the dovish side, one from george and one from bullard. let's get to the details now. the economy seemed just like it was last time, expanding at a moderate pace, a slight tweak to the gdp forecast. back to that later. the labor market upgraded just a touch, seen as further improving rather than some improvement and same concern about the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate remaining elevated. you'll see in the forecast a little more aggressive decline in the unemployment rate anticipated by the federal reserve, spending, household and businesses seen advancing and howing strengthened further as they said last time. inflation somewhat below the long-term objective and that inflation forecast came down by a strong half point in 2013, seemed to be accelerating

steve liesman. >> who cares about japan. >> what has rendered steve liesman speechless, the dow's upp who cares about japan? i know it's not about becoming japanese. let's move on. check this out, folks. what we're looking at is a shot of formerly known as sears tower, willis tower in chicago, struck by lightning. amazing photograph! >> so cool. >> maybe the willis tower is shooting lightning up in the sky to defend against alien invasion. >> that's what i was thinking. >> terrifying rescue in iowa last night but a happy ending. family trapped in suv after severe storm triggered flash into thing. took abhour to get that girl and two adults on dry land. great job by first responders. nobody was hurt. >>> it has made its way to the northeast. extreme weather events causing $110 billion in 2012, the second costliest year on record. it's not just our imagination the weather's been quote, crewy. it is weird, right. >> one way to put it. it has been crazy. a lot of folks are traveling this time of the year, it's end of june, folks want vacations under way. talking about severe weather plag

our senior economics reporter is steve liesman but you knew that already. steve. >> thanks, tyler, really interesting development in the fed survey. 60 respondents and economists and wall street strategists bringing down the level of the probability of recession to the lowest level since we began the survey. back when we started it was 36%, probability of recession the next 12 months and that was around the time of the big debt ceiling debate. fiscal cliff debate 28.5%, falling now for several months in a row. 16% is now the probability. the lowest level of recession since we've been doing this survey for three years. one of the biggest problems in the economy, interesting changes here. used to be concerned about too little deficit reduction. that back in april. that's fallen off. not a whole lot of concern about deflation or overall inflation and a little bit more concern about too much deficit reduction, that the sequester is hitting the economy in a bad way, but those aren't on the top. let's go to the next one to look at the top, the next graphic, there

our senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with all the details. od evening, steve. >> reporter: thanks, larry. american news on economy are the best they have been since the recession began. our survey of 110 americans finds more people think their home values will go up and fewer judge the current state of the economy as poor than any time since the recession began. 41% of americans expect their wages will increase over the next year the largest percentage since 2008. americans see their home prices rising in the next 12 months. that's the highest expectation since 2007. while these measures are on the positive side they remain depressed. few americans are satisfied with their starved living than they were in '07. 54% said their standard of living has met or exceeded their expectations but 71% in 2007. but the survey found americans are satisfied with their jobs. 85% say they are very or somewhat satisfied with their jobs and americans seem to like their co-workers and their bosses. on that happy note, larry, back to you. >> that's great stuff, st

jack bouroudjian and cnbc's own steve liesman joining me on set also.ve jim la camp, senior investments of ubs. almost lost you in the teleprompter, no way. >> you heard my take. what say you? >> i think you and bernanke actually agree. i think he's saying he's going slow and i think it's very interesting that bernanke said all of the things that you said he should be doing, and the market heard i'm raising rates, and i don't know to what extent -- there's an expectation, a right amount of expectation that the market's going to hear what he says. >>ia, but he said -- let me just go into this for one second. >> go ahead. the way he did it, in other words, people are figuring out when is he going to slow down bond buying? is it going to be this month or next month. what he did was give a one-year plan that could be shorter and a 7% unemployment threshold. >> we have not heard that, steve. >> yes, we have. >> we have never heard of 7% before. >> he hasn't said it. jim buller said it to me in january and if jim buller hadn't said it, you can divine it how?

. >> senior economics reporter steve liesman is here with what the fed is likely to do. most importantly, what the fed is likely to say, steven. what it all is going to mean to your money and the markets, what are you expecting? >> i don't know if i agree with joe that we're going to get a kind of fresh bullish signal. i think inflation could be acknowledged as a problem. i just don't know that we're going to get more of a kind of, we're going to be continuing on the -- i think the fed is trying to figure out. i think bernanke is going to play it neutral. i did like my wife did she likes to make lists, i made lists on would it taper, would it not taper. let's look at the to taper idea. one idea would be to take some of the steam out of the stocks that the fed is concerned there may be too much leverage in equities. making the exit easier obviously the less it buys. the third one is probably the biggest things out there. the fed would want to reduce its footprint in a treasury market where new issuance is falling and there are the hawks that say the output has been substa

let's get to steve liesman. he just got out of the meeting. you heard him ask those questions. what was your assessment today, steve? >> reporter: maria, you can tell by looking at me, i've done head scratching. i agree with you completely on that. i don't understand why people would be -- and, by the way, the more i thought about it in the meeting, i really thought what bernanke said was like a bombshell. but then i thought about our fed survey. everything bernanke said about the outlook is already conventional wisdom in the market. bernanke did not say anything about what is going to happen to policy that is not picked off in our statements, other statements. what are we talking about? the idea that qe would begin to be reduced towards the end of the year and probably end the middle of next year. our cnbc survey says qe ends june, july 2014. period, end of story. i see the market coming back here, maybe says, wait a second, we knew that already. we already thought that would happen. the only bizarre thing that everybody was scratching their heads about, more of the head-scratc

steve liesman is in the studio.rd time around on first quarter gdp, now only 1.8. 1.8 consumption, dropped to 2.6 from 3.4. the price index moved up from 1.1 to 1.2, and core personal consumption expenditure quarter over quarter sits at an unchanged 1.3. wow. this is a pretty big revision. the silver lining is it will probably make the next quarter which is not very large look a little more in line with the current 1.8 read. remember, we're about ready to finish up the second quarter, so one month from today will be handicapping our first look, the advance on second quarter gdp. everybody's pretty much excited about the notion we could put back-to-back positives in the equity markets but i do point out that yesterday continued the march of higher closing yields in treasuries and today it is easing back a bit and the reason, 1.8. back to you. >> thank you for that, rick. steve, what do you make of that? >> there are some significant revisions to important parts of this survey. consumer spending revised down from 2.6

steve liesman hats exclusive results of the cnbc all america economic survey. steve?reporter: thanks. you like your job, you like your boss, well, how many people said yes? if you're not on the happy train you're on the wrong track. more "power lunch" in just two minutes. [ male announcer ] we've been conditioned to accept less and less in the name of style and sophistication. but to us, less isn't more. more is more. abundant space, available leading-edge technology, impeccable design, and more than you've come to expect from a luxury vehicle. the lexus es350 and epa-estimated 40 mpg es hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection. vietnam in 1972. [ all ] fort benning, georgia in 1999. [ male announcer ] usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection and because usaa's commitment to serve military members, veterans, and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. . >>> it is, of course, a tough economy for so many american

liesman presses. there you go, steve. plus, a female economist who says unequal pay for women is a myth, and get ready, america, because even as we are getting bigger, airplane seats may be getting even smaller, mandy. >> i was on a plane just last night, and the market has recently been liking to move and move which go. today could be the sixth straight day of triple-digit moves for the dow, that is, of course, either up or down, and if so, this would be the first time since october of 2011. let's get straight down to the floor of the nyc and find bob pisani and then out to rick santelli. we'll get on to the markets in a moment, but first i would like to ask you a question in light of the fact that we got the fbi revelation that the nsa surveillance foiled a bomb plot on the nyse. what's the security like down there in light of those revelations? >> the security has been extraordinarily tight since 9/11. people used to be able to come in here, tourists and stand by the visitors' gallery and watch everybody and you can't

steve liesman, with jeff sika. steve, make the point. is it ready at this point? >> i think it depend on how the fed is judging it. the judging is based on how the -- the shape the economy was in when the fed started this. i think the case could be made that the qe could be lower. i don't think there is a case that qe should be ended. the idea that the fed may buy, i don't know, another 3, 4, $500 billion of assets from here. remember, still doing it for another year. so what we have, bill, is a contest between the market's fears over the end of tapering and feds cash which will still be coming into the market. the market's fears are prevailing today and i think something the investor should ask themselves, does that cash, actual purchase of assets that will apparently go off for another year end up overwhelming those fears. >> and they even said, this is data dependent. so if the data comes in weaker than expected, perhaps that timetable is pushed out. jeff sika, in terms of your own wealth manage many here, what do you do on a day like today? >> it is interestin

. >> i talked about this yesterday, i know steve liesman disagrees, but i think that's the best thing the market can get tomorrow is an acknowledgment that the inflation is not present right now and taking down the growth forecast for the economy. if you do that, if the fed tells you that, then you certainly skr to believe this argument of tapering. this is really a 2013 late story, maybe even into 2014. >> which is why you avoid commodities. >> i think bernanke did a brill yont job a month ago when he shaped the trees. where is the risk? i think we're going to see him calmer and the game is back on. >> no one is better to talk to than steve liesman. steve, what does your latest survey reveal about what the fed is thinking? >> it's revealing, scott, that bernanke's words have had an effect. they've dialed back or made sooner the time of the taper. let's go to the time line. we can show you what's happened. here is the april survey for when the taper will begin. february 2014. now in the june survey, the average response is now december thi thi 2013. how about when we stop qe? it had b

we have the latest from cnbc's steve liesman and our investment experts are coming back.ase stay with us on "the kudlow report." i want to make things more secure. [ whirring ] [ dog barks ] i want to treat more dogs. ♪ our business needs more cases. [ male announcer ] where do you want to take your business? i need help selling art. [ male announcer ] from broadband to web hosting to mobile apps, small business solutions from at&t have the security you need to get you there. call us. we can show you how at&t solutions can help you do what you do... even better. ♪ made a retirement plan, they considered all her assets, even those held elsewhere, giving her the confidence to pursue all her goals. when you want a financial advisor who sees the whole picture, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. we went out and asked people a simple question: how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing t

we have senior economics reporter steve liesman with us and tom petri, chairman of petri partners. good to have you with us as well. how much of today's price and today's price movement is directly traceable to the unsirnts in the middle east? >> i think most of it, tyler. on fundamentals today, really the supply-demand fundamentals would not argue for it to be up here, but it's very clear cut that both the syrian situation and the linkages that you've just touched on between the syrian situation and the israeli-iranian situation over nuclear weapons all leaves us really wondering what exogenous events might come in the coming months. >> so let's take the price apart a little bit. if none of that were going on if there were, let's say, sort of a resolution that kind of ame ameliorates the situation there, what would be the price be for supply-demand? >> somewhere in the $85 to $90 range, absent these other factors? >> if it gets worse, where could you go? >> you could go meaningful higher on a big geopolitical event, action by israel on iran on the nukess, or a spiring out of contr

our steve liesman is back at headquarters with more on that. at are you thinking for the twins? four-year degree for sure? >> that would be a start, yes. >> yeah. well, you know, most people still think that, but what we found is some really interesting questions that people are interesting not of the professors but of the universities themselves and the value of a college education. let's start off with the broad question we asked in our cnbc all-america survey. is a college education part of the american dream? you can see pretty overwhelming results, although i have to tell you not as much as we saw last time when we asked about whether owning a home is part of the american dream. we probed a little diener. a slightly different question. is a college education worth the cost with all this concern about debt and the skyrocketing costs? what you see is slightly smaller percentage of people believe it's worth it, and that's all adults. but now let's move on. the green is not worth it. when we look at people who have less than a college degree, i

right now though i want to bring in our senior economics reporter steve liesman. a big and some might say quite surprising move by s&p today regarding the u.s. credit rating. in their estimation now, we're stable, steve. >> how are you feeling, sue? are you stable, sue? >> i feel stable right now. >> i teeter just a little bit. s&p saying that there is now just a one in three chance that there will be a downgrade as they upgrade the united states to stable, and i have a chart here, sue, i'm calling s&p please downgrade us again because yields have done nothing but go down since the s&p downgrade which had to do more with political deadlock in the united states more than anything else. july 11th, it warned of the downgrade, and the yields were 2.98. they went down further when they actually downgraded the u.s. on august 5th and then fast forward to today, june 10th, 2013, and what you see is that the s&p upgrade from negative to stable, yields at 2.27 and actually rising. the reason is because of better economic growth, better -- there's the tale of the tape right t

steve liesman live from the federal reserve in washington. strategist with lpl financial. jim is also with us, chief investment officer at pnc wealth management. gentlemen, welcome to the program. >> thank you. >> good morning, simon. >> jim, do you think it is fair to say that as we now look to withdraw from monetary easing, we have payback, payback, negative payback due to the increased transparency? >> i'm not sure that's fair, simon. i would suggest that as with withdraw the economic conditions are going to be improving. i think in the discussion i think the chairman needs to be very clear about the data that they're looking at and why they believe at the fed that the economy is improving and it's now time to let the economy and the markets stand on their own two feet. so i don't see a negative in that. i actually see a positive. >> i would disagree with you, jim, and i would say look what we saw when he was on capitol hill may the 22nd where he indicated that tapering could come even though the data didn't necessarily suggest that. >> bu

. >> right now, let's get to steve liesman with some breaking news. steve? >> joe, thanks.o sell 30 million shares of gm stock at the close of business tomorrow in conjunction with gm's inclusion in the s&p 500. as of may, the treasury held 241 million shares, but it's been selling some of those shares. so ultimately this brings it down to 200 million shares. treasury's gm sales in conjunction with the 500. the uaw retiree medical benefits trust will also sell 20 million shares for a total sale of 50 million shares. the government originally invested about $50 billion in gm so far and have recovered 30.5 million as of the may t.a.r.p. report. treasury announced plans in december to sell the remaining gm stake in 12 to 15 months. this should not take the market by surprise. treasury saying it recovered about 95% of funds dispersed through t.a.r.p. it does seem to be on track to book a loss, the $50 billion it put out versus the 30 billion recovered so far. maybe it has another $9 billion or $10 billion total of stock. looks on track to lose about $10 billion on this investme

his go to journalist or our own steve liesman that those who are using emerging market money funds asstretch their returns will probably lose more money than they realize when the fed changes his stance. that's all he had to do. intimate door will be too small in places like thailand, philippines, indonesia, anywhere else that runs accounts deficit when we go less accommodative. you put money managers on notice and clients can keep the pressure on them to do the conservative not risky thing. remind them they shouldn't take on that risk. the fed chief also should warn using etfs to get yield, they will be roughed up. the bond funds might not be as safe as people think because they can be hammered as rates soar. why not do this, explain the hazards of what people are doing in the hundreds of billions of dollars of retirement money. before you say bernanke did that, i don't know a soul who feels he warned anyone. i know there are plenty of reckless managers who might have reined in recklessness and fecklessness, making it more palatable for rule powers. what about s.e.c., why can't the c

we go the steve liesman joining us from hq. steve, this is what the fed sees?, there is some sense of a bit of a pickup here, and these are not necessarily the essential data out there, and the philly fed is something that is used as an ind icator fr national data and i was looking which is why i was off camera there at the expectations component, and those are strong in the philly fed, and that is important. expectations for the new orders and expectations for employment, a and they are all high. and the other thing that diana pointed out which is significant, the 5.1 million is the first time that we have gone over the number in existing sales outside of the distortion that was created by the program back in november of '09 in the period since the financial crisis. now, to put it in context, we used to do 6.2, and that was an average, 6.2 million and nowhere near back, but it is a good thing when the people can sell their home and the price they get is higher even if it is as diana suggested that the gains are not sustainable, that is go going to add to the c

for that we need to bring in steve liesman and nobody wants to do that.e, a quick question for you before we wrap it up which is this. >> sure. >> whatever the reason gold is being sold, we know it's being sold. people are pulling in cash, bonds are being sold. people are pulling in cash. where is that money going? >> well, a lot of the money isn't going anywhere. >> go ahead, mike. >> it's just -- part of the money is staying in cash. we're in an unsettled time. people are trying to find places that are going to be -- that are going to be stable. i do think that equity prices are going to continue. equities will continue to see inflows because they have been going up. it's really about that -- that simple. you know, we've seen global equity prices fall substantially, particularly emerging markets, but i do think u.s. equity prices will still get supported as we're seeing yesterday and today so i do think some of the money is leaking into equity markets and also into real estate over the last -- well, we know what prices have done over the last year and r

in a "closing bell" exchange today, mark miller, scot graham with us as well as our own steve liesman and rick santelli. good to see everybody. thanks for joining us. steve, let me kick this off with you. misinterpreted. we had a knee jerk reaction to the down side. fels like after thinking about it and recognizing that it is data dependent, investors are changing their mind as far as when the take begins and what it means. >> i think it is the latter that is more true. what fed officials are saying is that when you hear bernanke talk about a schedule for tapering, it did not affect plans for raising interest rates. and out there in force trying to convince markets, and they brut out one of their bigger guns today, the president of the new york fed, has a permanent vote, to say, look, yeah, there's a plan in place. and he pretty much agreed with that plan. but that plan does not affect when the federal raise rates. he believes the rate will remain low or zero for a long time to come. and in fact, hinted further that they could remain low even after the unemployment rate goes below 6.5

. >> let's bring steve liesman in on that note. tomorrow's jobs report is going to be critically important to the market and people around the table and elsewhere. >> i'm confused here. >> down on bad and down on up? >> no. >> is that where you are? >> we need the up. >> down on up? >> oim not down on up. >> short term. >> who cares? >> flip a coin. >> down on up or up on down? >> i have no idea. my point is -- >> down on down. >> all right. let's talk about -- >> like historically -- >> 170, 160 up. >> if it's stronger than expe expected. >> 200, 225? >> that's good. >> up. >> if you get a hot number, it would lead to people feeling better about the economy because the last couple of data points we've gotten about the economy has not been that good. >> right. >> i -- don't you agree, a stronger than expected number, based on what's happened this week, the arc of what's happened this week with the ism and adp would make people feel better where the job market and the economy? a bad number, as long as it's not a fall out of bed bad

let's bring in steve liesman who is arguing the markets are getting it wrong. steve, steve weiss sitting next to you put out a note unusually hawkish comments from the fed chairman. the market seems to be convinced here bernanke killed the rally but whatever he said or whatever the fed is going to do that this market is done because of bernanke. >> i am deeply saddened today, scott, not because of what the market but because of what steve weiss believes. i have never in all the time we have been sitting shoulder to shoulder disagreed with you more on this situation. >> i have news for you. the market is voting on the side of steve >> absolutely. i have never shied from the role of don quixote but i think the market has something fundamentally wrong. they're confusing fed hawkishness with fed optimism. they're different things. let me see if i can explain the difference. the fed being more hawkish means that for a given forecast the fed's policy would be tighter. what we got a week ago wednesday was an upbeat fed forecast and a reaction function or policy that to

their expectations are -- >> steve liesman laid the case out yesterday that the market thinks one thing when the fed is meeting another. fed optimism the market takes as hawkish. maybe the market is taking it wrong. >> it should be hawkish. >> you asked the question, is good news good news again? of course it is. we need to get away from qe. eventually that's better for everybody who wants to be long the market. no qe is a good thing. good news is definitely good news and the economic data you're seeing right now, you hit the nail on the head, scott, the fed has it in their -- they have the most insight to the data, and they're telling you it's going to be good. i believe it. >> let's bring in our next guest, alec young. where do you come down on what the market is going to do from here? >> i think it's going to continue to be choppy, but we'd be looking to buy, especially domestic cyclicals, discretionary, financials. we think the economy is going to continue to heal. we don't think the rate spike will be enough to kill the recovery and that as growth picks up, you're not going to see

. >> let's bring in steve liesman. he was at the fed news conference yesterday, has been following it all. steve, what do you make of what the traders have to say? are they getting it right? are the markets getting it right? >> can we do a wide shot on the traders? i need to do a survey. this is very important to me. here we go. nice. these guys are so quick in the back room there. quais, raise your hand if you got new information yesterday from bernanke from what you previously thought on the trajectory of fed policy over the next year. >> nobody raises their hand. >> it didn't come from bernanke. it came from the market itself. >> now, guys, could you put up the fed survey chart that i had. the cnbc fed survey. what did bernanke say yesterday? tapering towards the earned of the year, he said ending qe middle of next year, hiking the funds rate sometime thereafter. that's the fed survey and that's what bernanke said. i'm not sure what's going on. i think you want to be talking to those guys, scott, about what's going o

steve liesman is here to clarify what bernanke said and what the market actually heard. steve?ria, do you remember the teacher in the peanuts comic strip? >> yeah. >> reporter: right. i think -- >> what did she say? >> reporter: i think what bernanke had was a peanuts moment with the market here. i want to show you what i think bernanke said and what i think the market heard. bernanke said, for example, if the fed forecast proves true -- and we'll talk more about what the fed forecast is in a second -- the fed will taper later this year and the qe next year, the market heard "i'm raising interest rates." bernanke said if the economy deteriorates, it could be more qe, the market heard, "no, raising interest rates." finally, the rate hikes may be as much as two years off. the market heard, "i'm raising interest rates." here's the gdp forecast. i want to show you what the fed is forecasting. this is what has to happen or more or less happen if the fed will end qe and maybe raise rates. we'll get to 3.25 growth. where we were yesterday? 1.75. that may be a little high. remember the

. >> steve liesman joins us now with the details of george's comments and why it further signals a recentus on the market. also with us is joe doran. steve, i guess i would disagree with the way we led this piece, only that the fed doesn't focus on the stock market, because as i remember, alan greenspan focused on the stock market quite a bit with his so-called wealth effect and what that does to people's ability to spend and feel richer. but what's going on now after miss george's comments? >> i wouldn't disagree with you, maria, it's always been out there as a focus for the fed. my point would be, over the past five years, while other channels for the federal reserve to affect the economy have become less effective, the failure of interest rate sensitive parts of the economy to respond to lower rates, as those have become more futile, the fed has focused on the stock market as a way to boost the economy, and it's a very, very ambivalent relationship, with on the one hand, some fed officials seeing it as a main conduit for wealth, and others seeing it as a main conduit for instability fo

joining us is douglas holtz-eakin, president of the american action former, and our steve liesman.o you read the employment numbers today? >> i think in the end, it didn't settle much. it was sort of a meh report, and if you came into it thinking the fed should put on the brakes or not, you left thinking the same thing. if you came in thinking the government was too austere in its fiscal policy, you probably left thinking the same thing. >> but what do the numbers say about the economy and the jobs picture in your view, putting the fed aside? >> we are just grinding along. there's really not a great recovery, but we're showing no signs of failing. even though labor force participation, if you dig inside that, that's largely the 16 to 19-year-olds. that's where the uptick was. that doesn't say that discouraged workers are coming back. and it's good news, but it's not great news. >> what'd you think, steve? >> i think i'm going to come back here in a month and say one of two things. either the 420,000 increase in the labor force was an aberration, just a one-off thing, or the beginni

diana olick is in the house and steve liesman joins the party as well.say here and what do housing sources tell you about that sector's ability to withstand these higher interest rates? >> well, look, it will hit on the bottom line first for first time home buyers. they will be hardest hit because they are relying on a market. one-third of this market is all cash buyers, and when you factor that in and you factor in the fact that they are competing against investors, those first time buyers. the rest of the market, i'm not so sure that interest rates are worse than rising home prices. we have seen a spike in home prices because of low inventories and that's a far bigger deal than rising mortgage rates. >> going up a lot. >> the medium price. anywhere from the stress or not. >> people are use the word bubble and i'm hearing that word, unsustainable. >> they were using that word in 2006 but nobody seems to believe it back then. everybody thought they would keep going back up. >> what's your take on housing? >> there's housing affordability index that looks

announce jason fermond to head up his council of economic advisers and if the name sounds familiar, steve liesman joins us. tell us who jason fuhrman is. >> supporter of the president been involved in different democratic campaigns but first and foremost he's an economist, and he's probably wonk in chief would be the job that's the job of the national economic council, a position that's near and dear to my heart. >> a wonk in chief position would be something you aspire to. >> i would like to think i serve the public just fine in this role just here, but what he's going to do is advise the president on economic policies and ways to achieve those sorts of things. this is an interesting job because the guy who has been in this job at times is the guy with the primary ear of the president when it comes to economic policy, guys like bob rubin have been in this job and yet there's other times when the person the head of the nac has not been the person in the first order listening to the president. lesser people in the job. >> and in terms of his resume, he's been the key architect of a number of very

right, steve liesman? break it down for us.in. >> let me see if i can make sense of this stuff. the data is upbeat in the recent stuff, but not so much when you compare it a little more long term. let's take a look at the cnbc all-america economic survey, the results for june. they're pretty robust compared to '08, or the average we've had in the survey over the course of this really long trend of depressed economic growth. 41% seeing their wages going up. the best number, actually, since 2008. up 38%, the home prices going up in the next year. one of the best numbers. only 40% say the economy is poor. a high number, but less than it's been on average over this time period. now, i want to go in and look at today, the next chart here, the home prices that are expected. you can see a kind of quantum shift over this period. the average expectation has been for a decline in home values. this quarter, we've seen an expectation of 3.1% over the next year, the people expect their homes to go up. what's the inconsistency? well, the rob

let's bring in our expert, cnbc's senior economics reporter, steve liesman and preeminent fed watcherl. all of this did begin with the news conference you attended the other day with chairman bernanke, where he was indicating as everyone has known, we're going to begin to wean the economy from the stim -- the fed stimulus. and that apparently was the senate for a two-day selloff. >> yeah. the markets took chairman ben bernanke's guidance pretty badly, andrea. he came out on wednesday and he said, you know what, we're likely to end this quantitative easing, this purchases of assets we have had, to drive down long-term interest rates. we'll start to reduce it sometime later this year and end it a year from now. it was kind of funny, andrea, in that that was sort of what the market already knew. but bernanke hadn't said it and when he said when we hit a 7% unemployment rate, that will be a signal to stop pumping up the economy. he said you know what, that doesn't mean we're trying to tighten the economy, it just doesn't mean we're going to be adding to it. but the market took those words

irene, would your firm -- steve liesman is with us, would your firm exist if you didn't have an edgemarket gets before they get it? >> oh, yes, absolutely. our firm does a lot of market making and other proprietary that doesn't have anything to do with news. we pride ourselves into not getting into the arms race and, therefore, having a bigger profit margin. but then, perhaps our competitors. at the same time, i think this is outrainous. i don't think this is new, because there has been a lot of evidence that the news has been leaking -- embargo news has been leaking into the market since 2009, way ahead of schedule. it's unfair to investors, i think. it's unfair to everybody. >> wait a minute. but if you're paying for it -- we're talking about specifically the university of michigan consumer confidence report that is distributed through thomson reuters, and they allow people who are willing to pay for that extra two seconds. that's what we're specifically looking at. >> yeah. >> if they're willing to pay for it, is that okay with you? would you pay for it? >> well, imagine -- well,

steve liesman with the details. >> thank you very much.ome details of the reform bill on fannie mae that will be introduced tomorrow. the bill is expected to have three gop and three democratic co-sponsors, for an unusual bipartisan bill. what we understand, maria, is that the bill will call for a 10% private equity first-loss position on new mortgage-backed securities. that's different from the government having that first loss. in this case, they'll call for private equity. it puts the government in a second-loss position, behind private equity. the bill will require the purchase of a government reinsurance wrap and a reinsurance fund will be created that will be similar to the way that the federal deposit insurance corporation works. the bill calls for fannie mae and freddie mac to be wound down within five years and will include a five to ten-basis point fee for every securitized loan for a market access fund, in essence, to subsidize low-income and rental housing for low and middle-income americans. my understanding is this bill, as i

>> yeah, you know, listen, steve liesman said it best. yes, he did. he said, the thing that surprised me most today was that the stock market took off. so let's rephrase that. if right now the stock market was up 10, i don't think anybody would be surprised. that bugs me, because, really, it is isn't about necessarily the number. stephanie said, you know, we had some soft numbers, but, you know, now we're up 208. well, those numbers are still soft, just three or four days old, but they're still soft. i think the inflection point over the next week or so is going to be when interest rates go proactive again. in other words, we've already seen very close to 2.25%. so that has already been mowed. that lawn's mowed. if we start to get up there again next week and we're getting closer and we start to get above 2.25%, my prediction is the stock market will take notice. >> what's your take, rick, on if events of next week. we've got three auctions next week, right? what are your expectations? >> you know, i think that the long-end auctions are probably going

going to bring in our economics reporter steve liesman and sue herera into this. clearly they are paying for access early, privileged access to information from the university of michigan. michigan can do whatever the hell they want with their data, but this certainly doesn't smell good to individual investors. how important is this number anyway? >> you know, it's one of the oldest pieces of data that we have out there, tyler. it goes back to the 1940s, and i think the problem here for the university of michigan is you're absolutely right. they can do whatever they want. thompson can distribute it for whatever fee they want. can charge a two-minute or five-minute fee. but the problem is it has quasi-official status and it has the name of a renowned and respected university on it. >> exactly. >> so i think the expectation was that this wasn't going on, and people that i talked to, even though thompson reuters says this was disclosed, a lot of economists on wall street had no idea. >> i don't think a lot of people had any idea, and eamon, it really just feels -- ta

steve liesman breaking down the latest fed survey results to give us an eye into that. reporter: it's a message of a taper sooner than they had previously expected. let's look at the timeline from our survey of 60 economists and wall street strategists. in the april survey, tapering was supposed to start in february 2014. now, you can see that's moved down a little earlier, december 2013, is the latest average of expectations here. how about stopping qe altogether? that's still in july, as it was in april. right now, the same thing. how about when they might hike the funds rate? have to come down here. hiking the fed's funds rate is an issue for the second quarter of 2015. just take the wide view, you can see there's a big gap here, though the gap between when they start tapering and stopping qe right now a little wider. i want to show you one other way to think about it. that was the average response. i want to show you the top response in our april survey, was march 2014. that's come all the way back now to september 2013. and 24% of our respondents are focused on tha

steve liesman, thanks a lot.carily good gross impression. >> we love bill. when we come back, a real members only club coming up. >> i don't make the rules. >> please. >> no. >> hey, what's up, shorty? what's up, pretty girls? >> you can not beg your way into this club. find out who is making the cut. >> and it's lady's night on fast money tonight. and they're all women. you can be sure to tune in to that tonight at 5:00 eastern. don't miss it. ♪ je t'adore ♪ c'est aujourd'hui ♪ ♪ et toujours ♪ me amour ♪ how about me? [ male announcer ] here's to a life less routine. ♪ and it's un, deux, trois, quatre ♪ ♪ give me some more of that [ male announcer ] the more connected, athletic, seductive lexus rx. ♪ je t'adore, je t'adore, je t'adore ♪ ♪ ♪ s'il vous plait [ male announcer ] this is the pursuit of perfection. ♪ s'il vous plait (announcer) at scottrade, our cexactly how they want.t with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i ne

. >> steve liesman asked that question on this show whether people were mistaking optimism for beingt wrong, that the fed never intended to come off as more hawkish. they said portrayed more optimism about the economy, it's the markets that are getting it wrong. >> even last thursday, john stumf the ceo of wells fargo forget a move to the up or downside, it will be volatile. look for the spieblg. he later explained that by saying have you the animals in the barn all spring, you open the barn yard door, they will go crazy before they settle down is there i think the plan is out. it's complicated. we will talk more about it. >> it is. we will talk about the border security bill. senior mccain talks immigration bill. they talk about the fed to chinese credit fears. that's all coming up after the break. so stay tuned. i want to make things more secure. [ whirring ] [ dog barks ] i want to treat more dogs. ♪ our business needs more cases. [ male announcer ] where do you want to take your business? i need help selling art. [ male announcer ] from broadband to web hosting to mobile apps, sm

steve liesman reports, the fed decision on "street sign cisioi tomorrow on cnbc. is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade, and etrade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. >>> okay. 5:30 before the opening bell and let's "mad dash" it. >> jack in the box? >> yes, i know jack and you may not know jack, but jack in the box is closing between 10% and 20% of caddo bas, and happen to love them with short lines at the mall, but they say it is great that it is closing, but it is at the high, and they say it is great, because kadoba has underperformed, and they say it is fabulous for chip chip poelt chipotle. >> and why kordoba? >> well, it is not packed and it is not working everywhere. so jack is higher, and chipotle is a company in a dogfight. you talk to the chipotle guys and they will say they are much better versus taco bell, but it is good f

our own steve liesman was there and he joins us with more. , carl. new york fed president bill dudley giving more details on his views on the economy saying that tighter financial conditions, in other words higher rates, could impact the growth outlook somewhat, but saying, look, it's not going to change the growth outlook if the higher rates are a response to a higher growth forecast that's out there in the market. he emphasized that the changes to quantitative easing when tied to the labor market outlook have growth factors into that in part because if the unemployment rate would hit 7% but the growth outlook were weak, that may not cause the fed to reduce the quantitative easing that's out there. he's not all that concerned right now about the impact of higher rates on bank balance sheets. something that the fed monitors. now, i asked him whether or not -- you know, to explain what went wrong in terms of the fed's communication and the market's reaction. he rejected the idea that something had gone wrong. he said sometime market trading is

steve liesman joins us at headquarters and what do you make of it?nificance of it. it's the first number out of the box for the month. it's also been, by the way, overstating growth. so the extent that it's 49 is that growth is weaker underneath and of course, the people will look at that employment number which tick down and it's still above 50 as an indication of what manufacturing may show in the friday jobs report where the estimate is 35,000. prices down, backlog of orders down. most of the internals aren't as weak as the headline number and this is a surprise and going along with the construction spending number, carl. along with what i thought was basically weak data at the end of last weekend and it's going to push out the tapering talk. back to you guys. >> thank you very much, steve liesman. s&p did spill a little bit on that news. dow's held up for a number of reasons and merck up 5%. >> it goes back to the question whether bad is bad again and we did see a weak close on friday. the old sell in may didn't quite apply to this market so what

i guess, i would say, with respect, let me first say i agree that steve liesman is quite comp ten. >> courage point, he's right, it's not surprising, but i think for me the really q3 thing is the fact that the chairman laid out a situation, namely, their forecast and said, look, if we get something like this, this is what you can expect from us. it reduces uncertainty at least a little bit. the uncertainty is down a little bit. it doesn't change things a lot. there is still plenty of uncertainty out there. i think it's basically a constructive step and i was glad to see it. >> you didn't hear my weekend's argument in my report there, which was really your argument, that we shake out yesterday the marginal buyer who didn't believe in the consensus, so you were making the point in the last hour, ultimately, worry not that far down, what did you say, a couple hundred stock marks here. will you have some blood in the bond market that everybody expected. you don't notice, by the way, by looking at the blood bath or what is happening there. the losses to the extent guys are hedged on the ot

steve liesman our economic times reporter has more. hing that the minority committee should do this? >> well, the dissenters have taken to putting out the statements on the friday after the meeting, but this is an unusual dissent for at different reason, because bullard is one of the two fed chairmen to say he voted against the statement, and this is why, because, i will show you in a second, that the feds should have strongly more signaled the inflation target which is 2% inflation. and he says that is a surprise to the downside this year. and to maintain credibility, the fed, according to bullard has to defend the inflation credit whether it is above or below that target. think about what the fed would have done if inflation was 3% or as we will show you in a second, it is around 1%. and bullard says that the plan laid out is inappropriately timed. president bullard felt that a more prudent approach would be to wait for more tangible signs that the economy is strengthening and that inflation was on a path to return toward target befor

we want to bring in diana olick, and steve liesman, and start with this number on the homes? i am looking at is prices. we have been talking about the prices all morning with case-shiller and the prices for new homes jumped 10% from a year ago and the year over year and look year over year and not month to month, because they ease slightly. what is interesting is that the home builders have been increasing the prices a lot, and also slowing the sales of the lots in order to gain the pricing power. remember, this number is signed contracts in may and not closing numbers like the existing sales so this is the indicator on rising mortgage rates because they were rising in may, and they apparently kept the prices up over 10% which is a good sign for the builders going forward, but the skwe will that change as we see the rates jumping more in june, and we will see the signed contracts. again, the month supply is still lean, but the builders themselves have been admitting that they are slowing sales of lots and slowing production in order the gain the pricing power. so overall, a g

steve liesman sitting down with narayana kocherlakota on "squawk box". >>> usa's labor party voting onrime minister julia gillard calling for the leadership ballot after supporters of rival of kevin rudd forced a vote. with more matt taylor joins us live out of sidney. matt. >> reporter: thanks very much. this vote which was called for 7:00 p.m. australian eastern time about 11 minutes ago so the vote ongoing as we speak right now. reports, early reports coming out in some australian media that i'm just track being for you over twitter suggesting that julia gillard has lost the vote and that kevin rudd has won the leadership ballot and will, again, become the prime minister of australia. we're bringing you a live shot from just outside of that party room right now. you can see it right there with that security guard sanding in that corridor. earlier on about 15 minutes or so before this vote took place one of the prime minister's strongest supporters, the workplace minister revealed he decided to back kevin rudd in this ballot. this came as a bit of a shock to many observers because he

steve liesman joins us at the table. >> right.be a weak jobs report, along comes challenger saying job cuts declined for the third consecutive month. u.s. employers by only 36,398. the may total, 41% lower than the same some a year ago. cuts of 219 so far this year. it's historically low month. i want to see what was the number. i think it's 11% year to date below where it was last year. let's bring in john challenger, the guy who puts this report together. i had my mind made up. i don't know what to think anymore. this is a strong report. just one more thing i want to say. when i look at how challenger works with jobs, it's pretty coincidental. it has a good historical record here. >> it does seem, steve, to be pretty consistent with where the job market is at. it suggests layoff pressure is very light. companies aren't cutting a lot of jobs. interesting, we're seeing some of the cuts come from health care, affordable care kinds of considerations. that's one of the things that most stands out in this report. not only hospitals wo