i know steve liesman's shaking his head yes. well, let's see. september is what? it's a little more than a month from now, sick weeks from now. with these kinds of data points, steve reshuto, do you really think the fed is going to pull back on their bond purchases? >> no, i think there's no argument whatsoever. you can argue whether qe was necessary to begin with and whether or not they did the right thing by going down the path to qe. once you're here you're here. and this argument about stocks versus flows that the fed seems to be relying upon has proven to be wrong. what bond traders care about, what interest rates are determined by is the flow, not by the fed's purchases. and if you reduce the flow of purchases you're going to have a further backup in interest rates. that's not going to be good for housing, especially with income growth being as weak as it is. it's going to squeeze affordability fairly rapidly and in addition to that it's going to stamp out what's happening in terms of the automobile industry because the steeper the curve gets the higher the c

right now breaking news on the beige book with steve liesman. >> thanks very much. brian, a beige book that in my opinion is a bit at odds with the weaker economic data. you just don't see it. the beige book a bit stronger than the economic data we've h.overall the beige book saying the economy increased at a mod toast moderate pace. manufactured which has been weak in some of the other data is said to be expanding in most districts according to the beige

steve liesman with us. you've had time to digest it. nuance on the words, courtesy of dan -- >> yeah, dan is making more of the fed reaffirmed the guidance. >> well, let's dig into this. let's tell the audience what dan is talking about. going through the language from the previous one to this one. he noticed the fed swapped out the word expectls to remain accommodative, and dan says that leaves open the idea that a change could come because expect means future, rather than today reaffirming is just the present right now. i mean, this is what we're down to with the fed. >> i think dan -- >> does it make you feel like you need a shower -- i need a shower. >> dan is a good guitar player, as well. i think maybe he's making a bit much of that right there. i think the issue -- the big issue is -- >> did you hear that, dan? he said you're wrong. call in. >> today's guidance, the number going in is the guidance going out. i don't think the view changes very much. most of the commentary, i'm going to have a full report at the top of the hour, r

steve liesman. even if friday's jobs report triggers a sell-off, our next guest thinks you should stay bullish on stocks. tom lee is from jpmorgan and joins us live from new york city. welcome back. good to have you on the halftime show. >> thanks a lot. >> give us a read based on the conversation we've just had on the desk here about what to expect from friday and how the market is likely to react. >> well, you know, i agree with the points almost everyone made there. you know, i think at the end of the day good news is going to be good news. so i think markets are pretty worried about a weak labor market print. when you look at the isms and some of the ip data, the employment data was weak, so a positive surprise there would be positive for equities. but as you know, on the other hand, you know, volatility isn't been great for the carry trade. i think that's why we might have to say part of that might be given back by there might be a further unwind of that carry trade. >> are you bullish enough t

plus, you can't have a show like this but the our senior economics reporter steve liesman who is reportingeat divide between capital and labor and what history tells us. steve? >> that's right, tyler. used to be this kind of divide self-corrected but we might be writing a new piece of history here. that's next on "power lunch." >>> stocks are near record highs and unemployment and underemployment are serious issues weighing down the american economy. does the great divide threaten capitalism in the usa? go vote in today's finance.yahoo.com poll. results are coming up on "power lunch." weekdays are for rising to the challenge. they're the days to take care of business. when possibilities become reality. with centurylink as your trusted partner, our visionary cloud infrastructure and global broadband network free you to focus on what matters. with custom communications solutions and responsive, dedicated support, we constantly evolve to meet your needs. every day of the week. centurylink® your link to what's next. [ lighter flicking ] [ male announcer ] you've reached the age where giving up

we'll get the very latest from washington and analysis from our own steve liesman and rick santelli on the next chairman. >>> meanwhile, more developments in the government versus steve cohen's hedge fund s.a.c. capital, who not only wants to shutter the firm, but it's trying to get all of the money, as well, possibly leaving cohen penniless. what's behind the move, the outcome could have long-reaching consequences. we'll deal with that. >> such an extraordinary story we're on top of. we'll bring you the latest. >>> let's look at the markets. for the week, we have weakness going on. the dow jones industrials average down about 37 points. look at that chart. having bounced off of the lows, which were reaching about 11:00 a.m. this morning. and looking very close right now to inching back to the highs of the day. down 37 points at 15,518 on the dow jones industrials average. nasdaq looks like this. similar chart pattern in terms of the bounce. bouncing off of the lows on the nasdaq, as you can see. we are positive here, just turning positive on the nasdaq, by a fraction at 3,605. last tr

steve liesman, our colleague, knows the fed better than anybody and says a september tapener steve's opinion is just 50/50. >> a perfect segue because, ty, thatéw's something you'll talk about right now. a constant question, of course, for stocks is how strong is the economy? where is growth going, and our economics reporter steve liesman on what investors should trust more right now, job growth which is moving in a god direction and overall economic growth, not so much? >> this is a really important call here. maybe the next big macro trade, getting right which of the two data points has the economy right. domestic product tells the story of a weak and even weakening economy. take a look here, 3.1% back in the third quarter of 2012 and then below half a percent in the fourth quarter. straighten the bid in the first quarter, and then this is an estimate. i've seen higher estimates, an average of some of the economists that we follow again below 1%, but in the other corner jobs which have been relatively strong. you can see here pretty constant, up 2% in the second quarter or by more

let's bring in steve liesman with more. from your understanding, how fluid is the taper as the fed watches data like today and on housing? >> i think it is fluid. i think the fed wants to taper. i don't think the metric is all that high to make it happen. i think we have to be solidly into a rebound, but in the second half but if we're not, i don't think it happens. >> is the taper in jeopardy in september? you say what? >> i would say yes. if the economic data continues the way it has been in the second quarter, the taper is predicated very specifically on second half rebound. if that is not convincing to the federal reserve, i don't think they would do it. >> what do you make then? >> i do think the taper is going to happen and i think a lot of the regional manufacturing figures are coming back. >> what you are disagreeing with is not really what i said, right? i am saying that the fed is going to taper if the economy shows it is convincingly on a rebound. if you are saying you believe the economy will convincingly on the

steve liesman with the details in 45 seconds. apple is on the rise again after its rough fall from the tree. is this one super popular stock making a comeback now? and rupert. wendy wants more money. trying to bypass the pre-nup which says only nets her $20 million out of mr. murdoch's billions. what are her chances of getting that pre-nup adjusted? first to sue at the nyse. >> i have a funny feeling that's going to get messy, ty. right now though let's focus on the markets, and despite the fact that the markets do remain near record highs the underlying economy is constantly on the mind of traders down here and investors across the country. american companies and, of course, the u.s. government also concerned with unemployment still at 7.6%. what are the forecasts for growth going forward? our senior economics reporter steve liesman has the latest cnbc fed survey. steve, over to you. >> sue, thanks, not very good is the forecast for this year. strengthening next year. i want to show you what's happened to the 2013 forecast. when

advisors, michael from destination wealth management, michael from panto portfolio and our own steve liesman and rick santelli. let's kick it off with you, steve. what did you hear from the fed? >> reporter: i thought two things happening, what was in the statement and what wasn't. let me do what was in the statement real quick. the economy was changed from being moderate to modest. a very slight downgrade to the economy. inclusion of the notion that mortgage rates have risen, and then, also, finally, concern about inflation, saying the low inflation is a potential risk to economic growth. now, here are some of the commentary that came out. there are the three things in the statement. low inflation could pose a risk to the economy. now, ian shep hardson saying, in short, the data matter but september's tapering is a good bet. dan greenhouse, for investors, all that matters is whatever you thought before, holds after. and this is the interesting comment from credit suisse. the fmoc refrains from mentioning possible tapering. credit suisse, the only one who mentioned that, but it is true, and

. >> david, you're the cfo, you run the account books, we were just talking to steve liesman and ricklli the last hour about the funding requirements and how companies are funding themselves in this volatile rate environment. have you had any sort of change of course in terms of the way that the panda group is funding itself? >> well, we fund ourselves with traditional bank debt financing, and we just refinanced our facility in may. you know, we feel that's going to carry us through the next several years to support our growth. >> well timed. >> i was going to say, you're not concerned about the fluctuations in the treasury market now. do you sense that rates are going to go appreciably higher from here? is that why you did that? >> that wasn't a driver of the timing. it's more of a benefit from it. but it's very likely, obviously, that rates will continue the trend up. they can't stay any lower so -- >> wouldn't think so. >> certainly a lot would agree with you. david landsberg of panda group, thank you so much for being with us. >> my pleasure. thank you for having me. >>> over in e

steve liesman now with the story. steve? >> reporter: maria, thank you. a strange recovery.mplain they can't find the right workers. a group of german employers in charlotte may have have a solution. share hot is home to nascar and some of the nation's biggest banks. what's it's probably not known at all for is the 200 german companies, including siemens who call the city home. why with the unemployment nation so high does the nation suffer from a lick of skilled workers? this brings together government, business, education and technology and it's helping to spark a resurgence in manufacturing in this country. with more than 1 million square feet under roof this is their biggest manufacturing plant in north america, building steam and gas turbines used to generate electricity. at a time when manufacturing employment is challenged in the u.s., this plant has doubled the number of jobs in the past two year, up to 1,550, but that's easier said than done. >> there's plenty of good people that have basic skills but they are not trained in modern manufacturing skills that we need

senior economics reporter steve liesman joins me with some of the details on what mr. bernanke said. >> probably a dovish bent to bernanke in that he's saying fed policy is not on a pre-set course. most of the economists who commented on this say they think the fed is on track to tapener september but a big issue is how much fiscal policy drags on the economy. bernanke came back to that several times. here's what he said in his prepared testimony. >> the risk remains that tight fiscal policy will restrain economic growth over the next few quarters by more than we currently expect or that the debate concerning other fiscal policy issues such as the status of the debt ceiling will evolve in a way that could hamper the recovery. >> a lot of talk about that and what would happen or could happen to the economy if the congress does not raise the debt ceiling in september or later this -- or later in the fall. a lot of questions about fannie mae and freddie mac. there are some bills in congress. also questions about banking and banking reform. he was also asked about interest

lackluster retail sales report was out this morning and we'll send it over to steve liesman for all thels. good evening to you, steve. >> thanks. very lackluster retail sales report today with the government saying that the headline rose just 0.# #%. that's of that of what the street expected. and then take you out auto which is were the strong part of the report and retail sales rose just nothing. some of the discretionary things down 1%. all of this prompting economists on lower their gdp forecast. now look at a sub 1% gdp forecast for the second quarter. 0.9% is the average of eight economists that we looked at. before that, it had been just above 1%. so of the fast three quarter, two on track to be below 1%. the high 2.1%. ubs. but even they acknowledge numbers are runner weaker than expected. moore beg morgan stanley the low. but the market seems to being looking through this. it appears they're look forward to the third quarter where stronger job growth seems to propel better income growth. >> steve liesman, thanks a lot. see you tomorrow. so not like the stock market hasn't had b

let's ask paul walsh, vp of weather analytics and also our own steve liesman.e were trying to make it a little bit light but if coke is saying it's a little bit soggy or cold but yet iceland drinks almost more comb per capita than almost any country in the world isn't that kind of like screw the excuse. two points is that the affect on the warm er weather is differen one place to another. korbnated drinks peaks in q2. gone back and measured the effect of weather on category sales and found that 15% of the variation in q2 of the carbonated drinks can be attributed to weather and now we're in q2 unlike any other q2 and last year was the warmest in 118 years and the driest and this year is almost the polar opposite where it's been incredibly wet and incredibly cold, so there is definitely a validity to what they are saying in terms of the impact of weather on volume of sales. >> what's more important to changing the consumption habits? is it the temperature or precipitation, ie wet? >> so far korbnated beverages, the temperature or the precipitation has a bigger i

and we bring in our own senior economic reporter steve liesman joining us as well as bob from the homeence rising and in light of the strong data with regard to home builder sentiment, and the higher rates have not derailed the home builder confidence and if anything, it seems like they are hopeful that people will turn out here and buy homes. >> well, if i had a mind of buying a home any time soon, the uptick of rates would get me off of the dime. i i would not be surprised to see the uptic in the buying in the short term. >> we will hear from the fed chair thursday and this is probably the last time he is going to be speaking before congress in this fashion, but for the time being, i wonder if the markets are not vulnerable, bob, to the confusion that is still reins about whether ending purchases or tapering the purchases is the same thing as tightening policy and what is your view on that? is. >> well, it is not in the way he describes it. as long as in my opinion as long as he is buying stuff in the ba balance sheet is expanding, policy is eased. if he buys a little less of it per

it might come down to me and steve liesman.e to figure this out. >> you said 1:18. >> we didn't put any money on it. >> it was not lost on the floor of the new york stock exchange. as soon as word was getting out, we heard them yelling boy. >> we should let you know -- we should let you know that the buckingham palace has released a statement, they say that the queen and the duke of edinboro are delighted by the news. keep in mind that this baby, this son, is third in line of succession after his royal highnesses. >> should we mention what art was telling us? we didn't get a chance to confirm that yet. >> has that ever stopped us -- [ laughter ] we were speculating about what would happen if it were a female and they've changed the law to say a female could assume the throne. >> ascend to the throne. >> that was in england. >> right. >> apparently not throughout the whole commonwealth. so maybe not in australia or canada. if this was a girl, we went dough now they would have handled that. >> exactly. it would have raised intere

steve liesman first, your expectations, sir, on what the fed may or may not do. >> i'm interested in was further improving, we had the 280,000 adp. i'm not sure if the fed will go with that as their be all and end all. that will be the key. they had some guidance. remember fed chairman ben bernanke came out and made us raise our eyebrows and said that the committee basically thought that if things go as planned we're going to essentially taper litter this year and end it a year from now. see if that works its way into the statement or the statement as is. >> spending some time to clarify and backing off. >> like a month's word. >> every fed official that spoke was like let me explain. >> they do the same thing except they said it with this or with that and a different exif a sis. david kelly, your expectations. >> very similar to that. >> the key thing is they are going to try to embed into the text some of what ben bernanke said at his last press conference, can't really leave that out, but also -- >> what if they leave it out? what if they leave it out? >> then they are getting fur

steve liesman already thinking about it with some forecasting. >> i'm thinking beyond june when it comes to auto sales, by the way, because what phil is talking about it's going to result, i believe they won't get rid of the slowdowns they normally do the end of june and beginning of july. that will affect the july numbers, and we also might see a little bit stronger auto production numbers but here's the numbers we're looking for for friday and also wednesday we have in here. here are your numbers, adp 160, non-farm payrolls also 160, some estimates a little high. unemployment rate ticking down by a tick. i'm hearing some guys saying it could be even more than that because last month was 7.55, and that was rounded up to 7.6. average hourly rages, the two i really want to look at, looking at health of the workplace. are wages going up in a healthy number, 0.2, and is the workweek also rising? those are big ones. >> and we'll be here on friday for covering it. for all those other taking the day off. >> i don't know where else i'd rather be, tyler. there's a look, and basically what you've

gordon charlotte from rosenblatt, he'd be the one in the tie -- the flag tie here today, and also steve liesman and rick santelli with us. steve, let's start with you. you have the results of the snap survey on what this morning's job number might mean, what it does to fed priorities down the road, right? >> yeah. bill, we did a cnbc snap-fed survey here, which we started at 10:00, after the jobs number came out. what we see here is that the market now firmly believes in a september taper. the average is for october. we see the top response is september, which is firmer than you saw in the prior survey we did just before the last fed meeting. so all of the rhetoric and now the economic data showing that the expectation is september, and october is the average, because some people are a little further on. moving on, when will the fed end qe? you can see that was pulled forward, june 2014 is the top response. looking at how much taper. this is the first time we've done this, guys. you can see the top response being $20 billion. the average response $22 billion. you could sa expectation being brou

a question for our steve liesman coming up. thanks for joining us. >> positive headline numbers in the jobs report, mandy, but are we seeing a shift towards more lower paying and part-time jobs? are they the right kind of jobs being added? let's bring in steve liesman and william rogers, former economist for the labor department. good to have you with us. bill, how would you characterize today's report? >> a very encouraging report. i mean, you came in well above that 150,000 fresh hold that we talk about that we need in order to begin to draw down the unemployment rate where actually people are getting jobs. you also had i think probably overstated but you saw some tick up in wages, you know. it's all in the report. >> let me ask you this. and i would, i guess, makes reference to on an earnings beat, maybe some people would say it's a good report but the quality of the earnings. was the quality of this report that great in that manufacturing jobs lost, jobs that were added, service sector, so-called lower quality jobs. >> that

steve liesman will join news a bit with his insight as well. we trade the action though with josh brown, stephanie link, mike murphy, and jon najarian. josh brown, markets getting the message? >> the market is getting the message. this is what we talked about for weeks on end. at first the taper sounds scary and then people realize the only way it happens is if things are improving. then the narrative shifts. it means things are getting better, means i'm more comfortable with the stock portfolio. you still have the vast majority of professionals and retail underinvested. the average strategist on the street has bumped up their allocations to equities but only in a minor way. still under 50%. kind of embarrassing at this point. hedge funds are chasing. they're using the small caps with leverage. you can see it everywhere. >> russell is hitting a new high. >> that's how you catch the s&p. >> up nine of ten. you mentioned the stock portfolio. a stock portfolio right now filled with what? if the market, murph, is getting the message, what do you wa

our senior economics reporter steve liesman has been with us throughout his appearance. to you? >> right now just so you know during the break they were talking more about fannie mae, freddie mac. there's a lot of concern in congress, a bill coming through the senate and now one in the house on reforming fannie mae and freddie mac. a couple quick things. congressman bachus asked an interesting thing. whether the declining issuance of treasuries from the government would change the quantity of purchases from the federal reserve and bernanke saying it didn't sound like it was going to be a factor. his concern was not with how much of new issuance it was taking but with the percentage of the total treasuries out there. so that was a factor that could have affected qe but bernanke dismissing it. modest concern by bernanke on mortgage rates, suggesting they were higher because of economic reasons, better economic outlook but saying it is something they need to monitor and later talking about higher interest rates and that the tightening was unwelcome. back to you guys. >> than

at&t mobile share for business. ♪ . >> steve liesman is back with more from cnbc's fed survey. n asking for a while since the debt services exploded, what wall street thinks about the deficit problem. i want to show you these striking rules of what's happened. we've asked people, is a deficit plan needed urgently? back in january, 80%. has come steadily down, 52% if april. now it's 40%. how about those who say you know what? we have a little time to do this. check it out. number is now the majority. wall street has chilled on the issue of the deficit. there it is, 52% for the first time, it's a majority saying we have time to do it with a deficit. to those who say we don't need a deficit plan, that's 8%. that's 6-4 of those who say that the deficit is not a major issue. washington not believeing the debt debate will be a big deal. 19% say it will be more contentious than last time. 44% say about the same. we are lucky to have former senator judd greg on with this. what about the probability of default? more than half say it's not going to happen. there is zero probability that t

steve liesman back at hq and more from the fed survey right here on cnbc. is having a really poor day today getting a sale relay and the comps are falling below estimates and are they sharing the estimates to peers like tori burch and michael kors. we are joined now with the president of the s, we are tail advisers, and thank you for join joining us. there is a problem with coach. the north american sales, stacy are down 1.7% on a like for like basis and the commentary is that they are losing market share on the expensive handbags and would you agree with that? >> e r the comps were down 2% and the commentary on the call is that we are not expecting for anything better into fiscal 2014, and so they are still expecting the kcomps to maintai negative. the issue here is that they are trying to be a lifestyle brand and so they are going to go into footwork, and more apparel and lower margin here, and certainly the guidance is below the street even though the expectations are out today and they are losing market share to michael kors and tori burch. >> for all o

wow, steve liesman, what's going on here? >> check this out, bill.l economics, studying why people make the choices they do and the psychology, is making its way into the mainstream, into business. as we're going to see here, into 50 million homes in america, and many don't even know it. dave chapman lives 35 miles outside of chicago, and he has an unusual morning routine. >> in the morning when i get up, i make my coffee. when i'm done with the coffee pot, it comes out and it's unplugged. and i walk around the house and i mack sure that everything is unplugged. >> reporter: but it wasn't always that way. >> well, i really was not aware of my energy use at all. >> reporter: what changes the chapman began receiving electric bills generated by o-power, a software company based in arlington, virginia, that has even charged up the president of the united states. >> this is a model of what we want to be seeing all across the country. >> reporter: its utility bills show users not only how much power they suck from the grid every day, but more importantly,

steve liesman, thank you. we'll see you back here tomorrow. the new york stock exchange. dow does start the morning with some green after the best first half since 1999. oklahoma was 14% so far. that ten-year yield has become our touch stone, of course, and the two and a half line sitting just above that this morning. europe has some buyers after the pmi's over

our own crack fed reporter steve "scoop" liesman is here with some very interesting survey results. steve? >> reporter: i think you're going to find this interesting, and i want to ask the question from our cnbc fed survey does the market ignore the view of the hawks? let's talk about who the hawks are. charles ploser, richard fisher, esther george and jeffrey locker, george dissending on every fed statement that's come out, and these guys generally way more hawkish, but i want to show you a place where it looks like the market may be ignoring the views of the hawks and that's on their interest rate forecast. take a look at the average of the 51 respondents when we ask where will the fed funds rate be december ber, june, june and december 15, not much gain until next year, and then maybe you get a hike by the end of next year, but more importantly the hikes come december 2015. now, i put this up against the fed's forecast. remember, the fed will give us in its statement of economic projections their own forecasts so there really should be no difference here except there is a big diff

let's get to steve liesman. has the latest on this back from hq. similar answers, and he's not taking the bait saying this will, in fact, be his last humphrey hawkins. >> i'm waiting for a senator to bring out the gold watch and present him with a plaque. i think he's going to practically retire right here if it keeps going this way. somebody i think needs to do something to correct the record here as to whether or not he is definitively retiring because the way these senators are talking it sounds a lot like a done deal. you're right though, carl, it sounds like the republicans are asking is there a danger of too much qe? democrats are saying is there a danger of too little qe and bernanke is saying yes to both. what the fed has concluded is there's last -- it feels less cause than there is to keep going with the project as it is. september tapering i think still seems on track if the economy improves. >> with that in mind we will take a break. again with the dow up 108 points. "squawk on the street" is back in a minute. [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ]

our steve liesman is at headquarters with that. steve? >> carl, thanks very much. president obama has not made a decision about candidates for the federal reserve chairmanship. i wanted you to notice the word candidate. they're trying to back off from this idea that it's already being decided as a one or two-horse race and no announcement about the fed chairman is imminent and likely will not come until the fall, carl. so i think the way to read this is white house to fed watchers and to markets, take the summer off. i think they're trying to defuse this situation which has become a little bit troublesome for the white house. kelly? >> i was just going to say, steve, we were mentioning the tree on the front of the "new york times." you would argue maybe the message got out ahead of them? >> i don't know that maybe they didn't bungle this a little bit, carl. they let this -- you're right. they let this sort of spin and did not get control of the message. it began with the president i believe making an off-handed remark in an interview with charlie rose and it never

steve liesman is here with a preview. steve? >> thank you, michelle. interesting report today.help set the pace for tapering of quantitative easing. june job growth expected 160,000 by wall street should be reported by the government down slightly from the 175k in may. right at the three-month trend of 155,000. here's why economists expect trend job growth. a split between things that matter. adp stronger than expected. in ism, manufacturing, weaker. services stronger. i have to tell you, neither claims nor manufacturing component have done a very good job of forecasting where things are going. adp better. mark zandi here to defend it. we'll talk to him in a second. services component has done a better job of forecasting job growth in all of those combined. to my mind. unemployment rate is a puzzle. just barely piticked up last nit at 7.55% rounding up to 7.6% behind the forecast of some it could fall by 0.2 this month to 7.4. there are discouraged workers and those working part time for economic reasons show excess labor capacity out there and better job market could bring tho

with us is beth ann from stand & poors and greg from the economist and our own steve liesman. steve, why not get some background for the sake of the viewers first of all. you know, it's kind of interesting, because i don't know about you, but i was thinking why is he not mentioning tapering? is this a big backtracking, or has someone said to him, don't say the "t" word? >> no, he didn't say it. but i feel like he left the impression in place that the general drift of fed policy assuming a third quarter rebound from the second quarter weakness is for tapering in september. maybe he left it a mill more uncertain saying the policy was not on a preset course. but he started to use this new euphemism which essentially is we are going to change the mix of accommodation, or mix of policies that will lead us to accommodati accommodation. what he means is less tapering, maybe more forward guidance would be one way to think about it. >> grelg greg, i didn't hear him say it, maybe you can confirm and tell me what you think he's talking about, but bernanke was quoted as saying if the fed w

let's bring in steve liesman, our senior economics reporter. steve, this is a huge disappointman after we've tried to get this economy going for so long. >> i think that's right, and i think when you put it in context, simon, what we're talking about is two of the last three quarters look like they are on track to have been below 1%. guys, we just calculated some of the incoming. this eats data right there. can you see there 177 and the one below at 1% 2013, the first quarter there and it looks like if we draw the jennings one it would be below 1%. guys, we just calculated using about eight estimates that have been changed today. the current gdp forecast for the second quarter, it's now below 1.. 0.9%. it should actually be a bit lower in there because one guy in there, ubs, up there 1.12%, that's the prior, and that is now down below 1, with the low being 0.3% so nothing really negative at the moment but we're getting there. retail sales disappointing, half the expectation. auto disease their part, ex-autos it the problem. it looks like to us t

and steve liesman joins us how from the ball room where the event will be taking place. g, steve. >> andrew, thanks very much. looking forward to the interview with jack lew. he will begin with his first major speech on the financial reform in which he will cull for an aggressive time table for implementing dodd-frank and also respond generally to a bunch of the bills and legislation working its way through congress that would aim to change dodd-frank. he'll begin speaking at 8:25, it will be followed up, i'll sit down with him for an interview. >> thank you, steve. joe, do you have some stocks to watch? >> yes, andrew, i do. let's take a look at stocks to watch this morning. when we return, ray dalio -- >> there is bank of america. >> okay, back of america. seven cents above estimates. revenue in line with expectations. we saw some credit quality improvement. big gains year over year. jeff harte said it was kind of enough. >> he said this was a good report, but he still has a hold on the stock. his concern is about where they get the revenue growth down the road. he said

steve liesman is on the case, right, steve? >> thanks, sue. we're getting a good read on the handicapping based on a brand new cnbc survey. the numbers first on "power lunch" right after the break. >>> i have the drug-maker posting better than expected results after strong sales of its arthritis treatment raising the low end of its forecast. the company was spawned from abbott labs earlier this year and the stock so far this year, up 30%, sue. >> ty, the white house saying that president obama likely will not name fed chairman ben bernanke's replacement until the fall, but the battle for that seat is on. next week cnbc released its next fed survey, but we're getting a sneak peek on one topic in particular. it's the summers versus yellin fight. the bets are being placed >> reporter: bets are being placed and the results were so overwhemg ov overwhelming that we didn't want. 70% of the participants believe obama will pick janet yellin to place current chairman ben bernanke and just 25% say it will be the former treasury secretary larry summers.

right now breaking news on the beige book with steve liesman. >> thanks very much. brian, a beige book that in my opinion is a bit at odds with the weaker economic data. you just don't see it. the beige book a bit stronger than the economic data we've h.overall the beige book saying the economy increased at a mod toast moderate pace. manufactured which has been weak in some of the other data is said to be expanding in most districts according to the beige book, consumer spending and auto sales all increasing. we had that weak consumer spending number. seven districts report modest retail gains, new york saying it's it was soft. retailers in four districts saying it hasn't met expectations but weather conditions cited as a reason and talked about that on "street signs." weather conditions the reap. real estate construction up in all districts and growing at a moderate to strong pace. faster growth in multi-family construction. this morning we got the real estate construction number. multi-families tanking, not in the beige book. hiring held steady or increased in mos

steve liesman joins us now with more. since bernanke last week -- >> i hate to interrupt your we. it's not what bernanke will say, it's what the market will hear. >> and that's the way it's been. >> i think that's the way it's been. and i wonder, my sort of concern on the edge of this testimony tomorrow is just what you said. >> i'm going to disagree with you in a second. >> you're a little too happy today. >> he's had trouble spitting out his message. this is not what the market has perceived bernanke to say. bernanke has had trouble getting his message to the market. >> i think he had it wrong at the beginning. i think he's done a better job of communicating with the market since that sort of misstep on may 22nd. >> what has to happen tomorrow? >> what my concern tomorrow is just what you said, is that the market believes there is not going to be a tapering in september. now, what that is going to be could be t contingent upon is the economic outlook. where are we now? we're probably going to do less than 1% in the second quarter. >> maybe even a negative. >> i don't think it's

we come back, a different focus which is the federal reserve because i want to bring in our own steve liesman here. he's got brand new polling data about who might take over for fed chairman ben bernanke. is it summers? is it yellen? is it liesman? >> it's not liesman, but wall street overwhelmingly thinks president obama will and should pick janet yellen to be the next chairman of the federal reserve. these are the preliminary results of our cnbc july fed survey. it was so overwhelming. yellin 70%, the pick of president obama and summers just 25% the pick to replace current fed chairman ben bernanke. now on the question of who should obama nominate, yellen 50%, bernanke 12% and write-in candidate john taylor comes in ahead of larry summers. these are the top five categories. we asked about ten. these are the top five categories here for what qualities a fed chairman should have, monetary policy, crisis management. you can see if you do the totals there, yellen beats summers in four of the five categories. >> wow. >> inflation concern, 3.2 is the only one where summers beats yellen by just a

steve liesman, to his credit who asked laue about pro-growth tax reform, and lew just kind of brushede. so just what is the administration's true growth message? we're back now with jared bernstein, jim beth south carolinaies, art laugh laugher michelle caruso-cabrera. practically everybody in both parties believe that tax reform is pro-growth and he just distanced, jimmy pethokoukis and the economy is growing maybe 1%. what is their policy? >> well, listen, he certainly did not overpromise when it came to tax reform. i would have no expectation of tax reform. here's what we've got. we've got -- don't worry about the banks we've got dodd/frank. don't worry, a pro-growth kicker in that speech, innovation clusters that they are going to start up around the country, the billion dollar innovation clusters that obama said in his state of the union speech. apparently that's where the growth is going to come from. if they don't work, that's it. >> can you figure out what their growth policy is? >> there isn't one. has there ever been, more regulation today? elizabeth warren light. >> i can h

courtney reagan is the retail headlines and jane wells keeping track of spiking gas prices and steve liesman ties it all together with a nice little bow for you. let's start off with the retail sales data. >> two-thirds of our country's gdp is consumer spending and many had forecast for a stronger second half, now that the payroll tax increase has lost its sting and the economy continues to show signs of improvement the commerce department's latest data not so inspiring. retail sales increased by just 0.4% in june over may but stripping out autos and gasoline. retail sales even worse, down 0.1%. there were areas of strength particularly with the larger purchases. take a look at this. sales of motor vehicles and auto parts improved 1.8% in june. consumers spent 2.4% on home furnishings than the same category in may and 2.1% more online and sales of building material, supply retailers fell 2.2%. department store sales were 1% lower in may and sales of food and drink retailers down 1.2%. that miscellaneous retail category posting a dismal number for sales. a number of retailers including most r

both of our next two guests were looking for good things from today's report, steve liesman, paul richards here as well, both live on the set. we're going to try to figure out xa exactly is taking place. >> the spike was at 11:55 and i see no news at the moment that explains it. >> at first we were sitting here discussing the fact of whether the market is reinforcing it's just not ready for higher rates. >> i think the market is ready. when i look at this market, if we were to be flat on the day with the following things occurring, a better than expected jobs report at 195,000, 70,000 revisions to the prior two months, more certainty in the market than i have seen in a long time but the fed will taper in september and some coalescing around what that number might be and stocks would stay at these levels, i would say that's a victory. 28d suggeit would suggest to me market is ready for this. i would take the wage gains and the jobs over the qe any day. as an investor, as an economist, as an american. >> paul richards was looking for a goldilocks scenario today. did we get it? or were we too

look for details for his road map for the financial regulatory framework, plus he sits down with steve liesmansive one-on-one interview. that's live on "squawk box" at 8:25 a.m. eastern time. going to be a great day, michelle. >> absolutely is. let's show you what's going on with the markets. the dow is lower by 45 and the s&p 500 lower by 8. the nasdaq is lower by nearly 11. remember, ben bernanke testifies tomorrow. >> that does it for us on mother ri -- on "power lunch." and now "street signs." >> big banks and health care are helping us out while coke leaves us flat. jim cramer and herb greenberg are here to help you make sense of it all. coke, a big part of the blame game these days k.it really be too hot or too cold to drink soda? we're going to find out ifnist usual suspects weather, gas, interest rates are valid as excuses. plus, harsh justice in china as they execute their own version of bernie madoff, a live report from beijing, and do you want the lust maybe but the the .

we want to go to steve liesman. it seems like the goal today is to make sure from bernanke's perspective that the market starts to understand there's a difference between tapering and tightening and he's going to try to hit that home. >> scott, were you addressing that to me? i'm sorry. i was listening to the testimony. could you repeat it? >> i think steve part of the point that the fed chairman is trying to make today at least speaking directly to the markets is that there is a difference between tapering and tightening and he's going to try to hammer that home until the market understands it or not. >> i think he's definitely doing that, scott. i think it was interesting earlier on today he was asked a question about the dangers of reducing qe. and he answered that by saying, you know what? we have a lot of tools we can use to affect a policy and the outcome. i think they're sort of on a track of tapering, scott, with the one asterisk i put next to that is if the july data continues the weakness in june, i think

. >> reporter: for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesm liesman. >>> coming up, meet the woman that put a modern twist on an age-old shoe and turned it into a successful business but first how treasuries, commodities and currencies faired today. >> good news this evening for commuters in san francisco. rail service is scheduled to resume in time for this evening's rush hour after striking unions agreed with the bay area known as bart to extend a labor contract for 30 more days while both sides continue to meet at the bargaining table. >>> well, you may want to take bart tonight if you're driving a 2013 chrysler mini van. the auto maker is recalling 2 82,000 of them to fix the software of the passenger side air bags. affected models are the car va van, town and country and caravan. >>> steven a cohen, the government doesn't have enough evidence to bring charges against cohen in the hedge fund company he runs sac capital adviso advisors. the deadline to bring charges tied to a five-year statute of limitations will likely pass without any action. no comment today. >>> finally toni

on that note we'll go to steve liesman. >> who does not have a striped shirt. >> very sharp. >> our idea today is sort of to look ahead to what's coming next week and how it's going to impact the way the guys on the desk and those at home or wherever they're trading react as a result. realistic expectations to come from the fed next week in terms of message, what kind of message we could get from other central banks around the world, and a look ahead to the jobs report and how important the data is in the leadup to the actual jobs report. >> what do i got, 15 seconds for that, 20 seconds? >> 15. >> 15 would be fine, right? it's a big week and it's an interesting week and there's a fascinating trade involved here that i think we need to talk about. what i want to do first, scott, is go through the data and try to point you to what is important here and what may be less important. so let's go through. monday we're going to have pending home sales. that's a june number. it's important because we've had one good, one bad number on real estate. this would be like the rubber match. people like

i'm joe kernen with becky quick and steve liesman, sitting in for the vacationing andrew ross sorkin.rands is out with second quarter earnings, a penny above estimates. the company just signed its first store agreement with four franchise groups that have agreed to open 45 restaurants in southern california. and joining us, nigel travis, the ceo and president at dunkin' brands. who we have called, like, a visionary genius because he figured out, you know, maybe california is a place we should have some dunkin' donuts. >> i can't believe they weren't there. >> they weren't there because they didn't have a visionary, nigel. nigel, how do you do it, to think, do they have mornings in -- >> joe -- >> go ahead. >> that's one of the best compliments i've ever had from you and i'm and i'm delighted you put that in a -- that's true. but we're delighted to be going to california. we announced it earlier this year. we signed up four franchisees. they're going to build 45 stores. you won't see them quite yet because it takes about a year and a half to get the stores up and running, but they will

there is more to the report than that, and steve liesman joins us this morning. ve? >> yes, including the e revisions, and i could sum it up that the data is bet ter than expected both jobs and economic growth, but overall still not that strong, and economists however still believe it is strong enough to keep the fed on track to taper in september. here's the data that we are talking about. adp coming in 200,000, and the street was looking for 183 and maybe some modest upward revisions for the forecast for the friday's job report which is 184 total and the second quarter gdp expected 4% and coming in 1.7 and the government even though it is negative doing better than expected and sense that the government numbers could be revised down in the prints of the future number or that the weakness shows up in the third quarter, all of it because of the sequester. concern ant strong inventory numbers helping to be revised away. so nobody is going to the bank with the number. maybe to the bank with the revisions of prior quarters so that the first quarter of this year was r