spin, and three, alibaba, the chinese ecommerce giant, expected to be the biggest ipo in history, steve liesman, we begin with steve and the federal reserve. >> reporter: it could be a september fed meeting to remember, the central bank is a month away from ending its bond purchases or quantitative easing, there is speculation it could take steps at the next meeting to clear the way to raise interest rates from the current level of zero. all the feds will be on tours, they will wait considerable time from when it ends qe until they raise rates, some guess that could go as soon as next week's policy announcement. many on wall street put the odds at 50/50, if they do go, the speculation is there could be earlier hikes than the market expects. maybe in the spring of 2015 as opposed to the summer. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> a key event next week is the scottish vote for independence. the turnout is likely to be extremely high, perhaps record-breaking. the british pound has suffered on the news that the united kingdom is not so united. and the question is intense, the supp

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> at least one report has the federal reserve raising the bench mark at least in march. today, the school of management predicted the funds rate which has been at or near zero since late 2008 will be raising in the next six months and will raise gradually in 2016, when they believe it will stand at 23%. >>> and federal analysts are looking at the oil prices, just today the international energy agency lowered the forecast for demand, the third month in a row that the group did so calling the drop in worldwide oil demand nothing short of remarkable. the main drivers, economic weakness in europe and china. but streets about the conflict in the middle east caused the oil prices to spike at least higher than today. the prices shot up more than a dollar, closing at $93 a barrel, the crude prices ended five straight losing sessions. >>> tougher new sanctions against russia announced today by the white house. they announced the prospect of aiding the separatists. in ukraine, they will be expected to target russia's energy, defense and financial

fed-fuelled rally starting with mary thompson on the reaction at the new york stock exchange, and steve liesman, with what exactly they're hoping to hear from the fed. >> reporter: amid the blue chip index, they failed to close at a record. after moving along in the morning the markets took off right afternoon on the reports that said the federal reserve is not likely to make changes on the outlook for interest rates when they conclude their two-day policy meeting on wednesday, this amid the market reports that china looked to juice its economy with the central bank n inrejecting. energy stocks respond to an increase in oil prices, oil prices rising on reports that opec will likely reduce when they meet. i'm mary thompson for "nightly business report." >>> the fed is in play with markets ready to slice, dice and otherwise scrutinize the policy for any interest in raising interest rates, two phrases will get particular attention, the first says there is significant labor market under utilizization, the rate hikes could be nearer since they suggest the feds believe the job market is healthier. th

for "nightly business report", i'm steve liesman. >> jonathan is calling for the s&p 500 index to hit 2075. he's chief u.s. market strategist. jonathan, by my quick k calculations, if you're right the s&p could be up by more than 12%. a lot of risks, worries, fears, what are you seeing that makes you so upbeat? >> well, i mean, if you look at this year's performance, the returns in the market, it's all driven by earnings. this is not speculation. it's not a market that's higher because simply someone is willing to pay more than the guy before. this is a market that's giving you in returns what companies are delivering earnings and that's a very healthy thing right now, and interest rates where they are means that you really do have the potential for stocks to go much higher. >> tell me why bull markets end, and do you see anything out there that would end this one? >> it's a great question. bull markets end really when you get towards your next recession. they don't get tired, and frankly, they don't get expensive. politics doesn't matter as much as we would like to think and the key

i'm steve liesman. >>> one u.s. companies that getting hurt by weakness overseas is ford. shares fell 7 1/2% after an investor meeting revealed that the automaker now expects a loss next year in europe and it is planning to take a pretax loss of a billion dollars in south mek for this year, 2014. ford also expects margins in north america to be on the low end of the forecasts. >>> but americans are spending more money and a lot of it on new cars. consumer spending rose a healthy 0.5% in august after being slack in july with most of that coming from higher auto sales. consumer incomes rose 0.3% that same month, a bit more than forecast. >>> a drop in the number of people signing contracts to buy existing homes does not bode well for the fall housing season. according to the national association ofrealtors fell in august. contracts to purchase previously owned homes are lower than they were a year ago. diana olick explains why. >> i just have been outbid. i've been outbid by other buyers and that's made it very challenging. >> reporter: eric garcia has been shopping for a ho

for "nightly business report", i'm steve liesman. >>> europe's economic challenges are one thing. national security threats are quite another. and today in wails, president obama met to discuss what to do about russia and whether the moves in ukraine will mean more sanctions, or maybe even for defense spending. middle east was on the agenda, too, more from wails. >> reporter: the first day of the nato summit is coming to a close in wails and workers are working to find a consensus what to do about russian aggression in ukraine. this is gal von newsed for the last several weeks include whag is happening in ukraine and the islamic state and many european leaders worried about it and they understand as this movement spreads out of iraq out of syria, targets will be in europe and the united states, as well. certainly a top priority for leaders gathered here. another big top pick is defense spending. we've seen european leaders committing today to a resolution. they say that in ten years time, all of them will be committing 2% of their gdp to military spending to the defense of the nat

as steve liesman show us you might know know about them. >> three reports will get extra attention from investors and two of them most people have never heard of. the kansas city fed on wednesday will for first time release its new labor market conditions indicators. which brings together 24 different labor reports into a single index or call it one jobs report to rule them all. taking on added significant cannes since the federal reserve began debating how much labor slack is in the economy and suggested the answer to when interest rates might finally rise could be pegged to a broad measure of slack such as might be measured by lmci and not just the unemployment rate. it brings into it other reports such as how many jobs are open throughout the country and how many americans filed for unemployment insurance. fed chair janet yellen mentioned in a recent speech she was following a similar index. another indicator that will get attention was the quarterly services survey, which measures activity in health care, legal services and education. this is the one data release in the u.s. economy

diane swang, joe lavorgna, jim bianco and steve liesman will join us shortly. he's still in the briefing room making his way out to our cameras there in washington. diane, what's the headline for you today? anything stand out for you? >> two things are important. one is gradualism is intact, the federal reserve isn't going to move quickly and stay away from as much thin ice as possible on the u.s. economy as it tries lift-off. the second important issue is although the dots may be more hawkish, chair yellen clearly isn't and she is the chair of the federal reserve. those voting to dissent will not be voting in january. >> jim bianco, as we look at the reaction across asset classes here, what do you think is the takeaway? what's your takeaway, importantly, too? >> i agree with what most of what diane said. i think we might be further away from the first rate hike now than we were right before the announcement came out. there was nothing in this announcement, there was nothing in this press conference that i saw that suggested the fed is in any hurry to do the fi

two-day meeting next week and rumbling that the team could alter the language on interest rate. >> steve liesman joins us now with the power of the words in the story. steve? >> good intro there, kelly. odds are rising to make an important change to the policy statement, perhaps as soon as the meeting next week, debating to drop a key phrase of a considerable time after qe inen until the rate hike. they were thinking six months. in october and many think the first rate hike in the middle of next year but recently officials from both sides of the aisle, doves and hawks, said that the decision to raise rates based on data and not dates and jp morgan reacting to this writes that the desire to get away from date-based guidance appeals to both hawks and doves. we view the chance of such a change next week as 50-50. some analysts not going that far but raised the odds. our base case is that considerable time survive september and we view this as a much closer call than a week ago and thinks that the change is more likely to come in october or november. that could spook markets and the fed could try to

steve liesman with a report of the policy statement to change as soon as next week. could jolt the stock market showing weakness this week. >>> and two special guests coming up after the bell toda

michelle caruso-cabrera is here and steve liesman, the markets keep marching higher despite growing concerns. michelle, you first. >> highlight, saying the number of hot spots in the world. look at this map we've built showing how many issues we're facing in the world. unrest in pakistan, disputed elections in afghanistan. terrorism in somalia, yemen and nigeria and focus on three areas of the world that if anywhere have impacted the markets sometimes though not often. start with ukraine and russia. once again today appeared to be moving the markets. deep confusion whether or not russia and ukraine reached some kind of agreement that could eventually lead to a cease-fire. vladimir putin today speaking in mongolia saying that, in fact is what has happened. that there's some kind of architecture in place or an agreement where maybe they could actually end the fighting that we're seeing. at the same time, though, president obama in estonia today ratcheted up rhetoric once again against russia. >> not the government of kiev that destable igszed eastern ukraine. it's been the pro-russian separati

steve liesman explains. >> reporter: call it a fortress usa mentality. the news abroad ranges to military gruesome. isis on the march in the middle east and russian forces in ukraine. two international stories in the heart of the oil production. europe, the biggest economy teeters on the verge of recession and the federal reserve and the u.s. comes ever closer to hiking interest rates. >> do you remember another time where there were more issues going around, around the world all at the same time? any one of which could overnight turn into a major disaster? do you want to talk about issues? do you want to talk about the ukraine? >> reporter: and still, stocks march higher. how realistic is this fortress usa mentality? one of the biggest surprises is the fall in the price of oil. west texas declined from $106 a barrel in mid june to around $93 today. that could be because the u.s. gets more of the oil from hot spots, imports from canada and mexico and u.s. oil production, now equal nearly 70% of u.s. consumption. up from below 50% in 2000. more stable oil

well, look out below because steve liesman, our very own economics reporter, is saying that the fed could remove the consider time language when it references interest rates at its meeting next week. and if that happens, that will be seen as a less dovish statement from the fed. and that could move forward expectations as to when we get the first rate rise in 2015. it may not be a good signal for the markets. i've got nothing to cheer you up this morning in this first bit of the report because the other news we've got is debt for seniors. student debt in particular. just seems to be on the up and up. you know, 2005, seniors had debt of $2.8 billion to pay back. it's now $18.2 billion. and if they don't pay that back, it could have some impact on the benefits they claim. so it's a tough road ahead for many seniors who are still laden with not only their own student debt but some of the student debt for loans they've taken for their children as well. back to you, joe. >> geoff, let me ask you quickly, what can you tell us about the report on the surge of americans who are actually renouncin

steve liesman will join us with an important preview next.ork with equity experts who work with regional experts that's when expertise happens. mfs. because there is no expertise without collaboration. sfx: ambient park noise, crane engine, music begins. we asked people a question, how much money do you have in your pocket right now? i have $40, $53, $21, do you think the money in your pocket could make an impact on something as big as your retirement? not a chance. i don't think so. it's hard to imagine how something so small can help with something so big. but if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years, that retirement challenge sfx: crowd cheering might not seem so big after all. ♪ ugh. heartburn. did someone say burn? try alka seltzer reliefchews. they work just as fast and taste better than tums smoothies assorted fruit. mmm. amazing. yeah, i get that a lot. alka seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. >>> all eyes on the federal reserve to set monetary poli

steve liesman is here with the results of his exclusive fed surgery. >> with the fed meeting tomorrownouncement coming tomorrow, they are meeting today. the real answer is meh. that's what they say about the issues out there, all these gruesome geopolitical headlines. let's take a look at where they think the s&p is going to be. you can see they raise their outlook for the end of 2014 relative to the prior survey. they've gotten more bullish and more hawkish. how about june 2015? again, a little bit higher than they were. 2015 end of the year, 2150. that's the average for our guys 15 months from now. david had it about 12 months from now. they've gotten cooler on interest rates. 283 was the forecast. how about 2.76%? little bit higher stocks. touch less or flat when it comes to interest rates. we asked people about what they think about the global risks out there. first we want to do the fed funds rate path. you can see 1%. fed 1.2%. something we wonder if janet yellen deals with which is where the market is versus where the fed is. 2.13% for the end of 2016 and 3.22% is the terminal

first time -- i'm sorry, it says it right here we have steve liesman. >> but he's not there. >> look at that. >> prioritize this for us, everyone is pointing to a different fundamental thing right now. we have the jobs and the ecb meeting and the problems between russia and ukraine. we have the fed policy. what's important to you right now? >> i'm watching apple very, very closely because this is a brand built on trust. and i think the naked selfie scandal is not in damage control right now. the company has not put anything forthcoming out there to give the public confidence given that's 8.7% of the nasdaq. i'm worried that's going to transition to the broader psycholo psychology. i think the earning is good and the fed is involved, the ecb and bank of japan, they are all playing the game. i want the upside but apple does concern me today. >> that's a bellweather then for you in this market. >> absolutely. they have a big announcement coming out next tuesday. barring any phenomenal upside that i see there. i'm actually expecting analysts to say, you know what? we are going to rethink

joining us is ethan harris and joining us with our own steve liesman. welcome to you both.irst to you, what prompted this change to june? >> it's the economy. i mean, the economy's looking very good right now. it looks like second quarter gdp growth will be revised up to 4.8% and that's a big, you know, bounceback from the winter. and third quarter looks like 3.8% growth so i think that the fed is starting to see the kind of numbers they want. give them a couple more quarters like this and they start to think seriously about hiking interest rates. >> steve, ethan isn't the only one or we should say bank of america not the only ones to bring forward their expectations of a rate hike here. >> i think that's right. you know the seven dirty words that a reporter can't say on financial television are? i'm going to say them now. seven dirty words you can't say on financial television. the federal reserve has hiked interest rates. i think we are enching closer and everybody's got itchy fingers to say it will happen soon and what we might get next week is an incremental move. the q

steve liesman is here as well and tobias ludkovitz equity strategist with citi. we switched it up a bit. earlier i said the euro dollar maybe not complete enough. so this is the dollar index, dollar versus the basket versus the dow over ten years. not perfect, larry kudlow, but there does seem to be an inverse relationship. is a strong dollar negative for the dow? >> is the dollar the green line? >> the dollar is the green line. >> it looks pretty steady to me. >> well, yeah. unfortunately that chart sort of flatten out. >> down about 6.5%. >> if you go into it a little deeper you can see the moves more volatile. >> once that blue moon. once in a blue moon a falling dollar helps erase deflationary fears. we're got a lot of deflationary fears. 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012011. the bottom of the dollar however august 2011. and the stock market's gone up 70% since then. go back to the 50s, i hate to pull this but i was here. 50s and 60s the dollar was steady tied to gold. 80s and 90s the dollar was basically firm particularly in the 90s, huge stock market gain. dollar hold

i'm steve liesman.cond quarter gdp flattered by the quarterly services number that came in well ahead of expectations and was revised upwards. now, it's now tracking 4.5%. the government had reported with other changes with a range of 4.2 to 4.8, but i think the request number is quite a bit higher. if we go to the next screen, these are the five of our ten economists who actually incorporate this new services indicator into their tracking forecasts. the other five do not. those who do you can see are quite a bit higher on a 4.6, 4.8% from morgan stanley, 4.7 for goldman sachs. moody's.com at 4.7 and hfe and barclays at 4.6%. those who use the new indicator are finding more growth than those who do not right now. i want to show you why. it had to do with hospital -- total revenue of hospitals up 10.6%. and that, folks, is a change from the prior quarter at an annual rate. there's been a big problem here estimating the effect of obamacare on health care spending in this country. and it was estimated to b

. >> steve liesman with those headlines. >>> looking for stocks with serious potential? we have a list. wall street analysts expecting big things from. will these calls hit the bull's-eye or are they full of bull? dom chu has more. dom? >> scott, what it comes down to. wee screened the s&p 500 companies for those that have the biggest price target analysts price target, targets, versus where they're trading right now. so we looked and according to numbers some of these stocks have huge upside potential, if the wall street analysts that track them get the story right. so one of the themes we've got here is oil field services. both schlumberger and halliburt halliburton, analyst prit targets price target 24% above where they're trading. 24% possible upside within the next 12 to 18 months. if you move on to another one. look at this one here. on the consumer side of things. people are buying cars. gm's auto sales didn't come in quite at robust at some thought, but they're pretty decent and sold the average price of their selling for cars, up near $34,000. selling at the hig

steve liesman spoke to mr. evans today and joins us live. it certainly feels like you have a festering fight within that room? >> i hear the hawks getting hawkier and the doves doveyer. we saw richard fisher join the dissenters. there's two dissents now watching for a third. then you have guys like bill dudley talking about the dollar, the feed for patience seems to be the buzzword for the dovs out there. charles evans say -- i said how could you have a low interest rate when things are normal he goes are you kidding me? have you looked around the world and talked about europe and china's slowing down and talked about the different challenges that are faced here in the united states. again, he also urged patience. here's what he said. >> we need to make sure we've got the fundamentals right to have strong growth, get inflation to 2% to exit the zero bound dilemmas we have. if we stay in this environment for an extended period of time and then there were a downturn we've used our best policy tools and it's a tough slog from here on out. >> so

cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman has more.ours to digest everything we heard from janet yellen what do you make? >> all i've been doing is thinking about it. if i look at the markets today, i see them getting different messages. stocks hearing dovish message. the data. housing starts coming in below expectations. july being revised up to 1.17 million there. jobless claims 280, below expectations. that is a good thing. economists saying that's between 175,000 and 200,000 jobs is what that means for the month of september. the philly fed coming in below expectations. the new orders and employment, some indices doing very well inside that. here what is one of the hawkish signals from yesterday's federal reserve. this is their average forecast by year, 2015, 1.375, up about a quarter. 2016, 2.87, up about 3/8. 2017 up 3.75. the long run unchanged at 3.75. what we did is a little math here. it can start in june and get there. you have to start earlier if you want to do quarter points here. here's the fed funds future. they are belo

joining us, chris thornburgh, chris lowe and very own steve liesman. welcome, everybody. a great group, steve, by the way, no surprise to you. you were saying it would be a strong number and heard the concerns monica raised last segment saying perhap it's obamacare related. trends aren't as strong as they appear. >> i want to explain why it's no surprise. we have the rapid update. survey of ten forecasters who have a tracking survey every time data comes in, put it in gdp and they tell us how that changes the forecast. we upgraded of 4.2 to 4.6 september 11th so that was quite a bit before this number came out and in pretty much with the expectation and want to follow it go to cnbc.com/rapidupdate and following it up. you have one quarter that's a negative 2.1. another is 4.6. how do you break the tie? with the third quarter and the third quarter's coming in 3% plus. good consumer spending, good capital spending. there's the forecast of the tracking for the third quarter with a range. you can see who's where. goldman is right there at 3.3 and not the sort of radical econom

this morning senior economics correspondent steve liesman is back at hq. >> a mystery was involved todayrts of the economy were doing better, the consumer was absent even with pretty decent job growth. that was solved with a pretty solid august retail report coming in as expected. an upward revision to july that said there was no increase in retail spending has been revised to up 0.3%. >> the consumer is seeing a little lift in wages, which we haven't seen in forever. we've got more people working, which is good news. import prices are doing nothing. if anything, we are seeing deflation in my part of the world, the apparel and home good side of the business. when you see increase in wages and deflation in the input, this is always good for retail. >> here are the numbers, 0.6% was the expectation. autos surging 1.5%. we knew that. we had the 17.5 million rate from the automakers themselves. electronics up, furniture up. there is the big decline. gas stations down 0.8% on a decline in gasoline prices, which we saw in the import price decline. today's number likely to boost the outlook thi

. >> not having dinner with charlie evans telling steve liesman in his words quite sometime before thes rates. >> that means 200 basis points more yield out of the equity market of returns. i can get 4.7% on credits or buy the equities and make 7%. pick one for me. that's my only two choices. >> certainly over the last week or so an increase and pickup in volatility. air strikes in syria, for example, the bombings in iraq, widespread ebola in west africa and protests now in hong kong. which may be behind at least some of today's activity. wablt to show you picture, as well, as we have been today throughout the day. tens of thousands of students in the streets of hong kong demanding the right to choose their next leader in 2016. we're watching it very closely today. the markets there open in just a matter of hours. and maybe, kayla, that's the issue. until the markets, by the way, hang seng with a terrible day overnight as a result of this and more of a wash-on effect of the western markets, investors are turning a blind eye in some respects. >> we should keep in mind, mind, it's at a t

know, wednesday for thursday pricing, and you have the fed saying something that is like what steve liesmans saying and been saying it every day and getting rid of the word considerable, there's a joke. got rid of a word? did you see they got rid of the word considerable? this week is filled with mine fields. >> not minecraft? >> no. they might -- minefields. i don't like a market that doesn't have a lot of new money in. now, if the fed handles this thing right, there's money bet the wrong way. but the banks were going crazy in the last three days of trading. did you see the way a first horizon going up? >> you mentioned this on friday, yes. >> these banks were so -- market leaders. and what was coming down? the iyr. the real estate investment trust. when you see a health care, simon -- avalon bank killed, that's rates going higher. seeing the banks really levered to net interest margin, they go high, the rates are going higher. rates, watch it. 2.75 not ready. housing is not ready for it. nobody's ready for it. 10-year, 2.75. level of selling for most of the market. be careful. cranes, we

steve liesman warned us about this yesterday. today, former fed chairman greenspan tells us if janet yellen is ready to change course on interest rates. >>> alibaba going gang busters on day two of the road show. is this a sign of an overheating ipo market? the pros weigh in. >>> cbs ceo moonves speaks in new york city. les is always interesting. always candid. we love having him on. he'll be up in a moment. whenwork with equity experts who work with regional experts that's when expertise happens. mfs. because there is no expertise without collaboration. >>> welcome back. it's a big week for cbs chief les moonves. tomorrow night is the first of thursday night football broadcast. a deal with the nfl moonves was involved in making and tomorrow night's game includes the reins, a team, of course, embroiled in the ray rice controversy. >> he did let go of the u.s. tennis open which i'm sure david favre will ask him about. he joins us now to sit down exclusively with cbs president and ceo les moonves. david? >> yes. thank you. we can t

steve liesman on consumer credit number numbers. >> they're surging. biggest jump since 2011. one of the biggest jumps of this century actually. got to go back to 2001 to find the third biggest one. consumer credit hitting a record 3.2 trillion. revolving credit up 7.4%. guys, this is an economic double-edged sword. one hand, consumers have the confidence to borrow. and maybe more jobs out there allows them to borrow. on the other hand in the wake of the financial crisis, maybe we have a little fear of debt throughout and level. bill, back to you. >> steve, can i just jump in real quick? >> sure. >> tell us the revolving and non-revolving parts of this. is this just an auto loan in the economy? >> it's a big chunk of it, kelly. revolving -- non-revolving up 10.6. revolving up and total of 9.7% and both up pretty healthy amounts. >> yeah. >> what do you think the fed will think of this? >> i think the fed wants to see banks lending and making loans to good credits and, you know, i had a bunch of talk with the auto guys and feel like auto loans are paid off first and paid off ev