steve liesman, he left. ♪ >> i don't want to interrupt that.ew theme song. >> i like that a lot. very cool. >> we are in the mood for it now. >> okay, 280,000. that is the big number of the day. it's also the number of jobs created in the month of may. >> the merry, merry month of may. the big question is what does it mean for the fed and what will the fed mean for the markets. the senior economics reporter steve liesman who was out there with the band and right now, here he

and janet yellen has to choose and jar the ma steve liesman takes a look at what some of the top money managers strategists and economists are expecting. >> as the federal reserve began a two-day meeting, a new survey showed wall street firmly believing th central bank would hike rat. 92% of respondents to the cnbc fed survey see a hike coming in even when the analysts see the fund increasing short term interest rates only modestly in the next several years. >> i think they'll start to hint it will be in ra should raise. for the next 18 months the incree to 3.25% but stocks are faring relatively well rising almost 10% over the peri folks on wall sn the fed rate hikes so it's not expected to be a big deal. >> typically the market does dip every year. and corrections usually don't occur when inflation is low. and economic prospects are still pretty encouraging so look i think we'll get turbulence. i do think it's likely to be a dip to buy. >> the challenge for the u.s. economy is the dollar. higher rates usually cause more flows in to dollar-based assets and strengthen the green back. a

we'll get to steve liesman on the fed in a second. but first, at&t shares flat at this hour despite a big fcc fine. eamon javers has details in washington. >> at&t says it vigorously dispute a proposed $100 million fcc fine. the fcc alleging in its documents released a little while ago that at&t's unlimited data plan was not unlimited after all and at&t put data caps on certain customers who reached maximum limits throughout their cycle of their data plans. at&t says it's been open and transparent, however, with its customers. back to you. >> thank you. also developing of course the countdown to the fed, about 57 minutes away from that decision. steve liesman is live for us this afternoon in washington. steve? >> thanks very much. the fed will almost certainly upgrade the economic outlook today. the question is will it be a definitive enough upgrade to signal a rate hike in months ahead? leadership, the fed grappling with whether the economy's rebounding strongly enough from the contraction in the first quarter. it also has to factor

steve liesman has more on what investors should watch for the rest o. >> it's a big week for economic data that means it's a big week for figuring out if the economy is bouncing back in the second quarter from the negative number we got on gdp for the first quarter. we got some decent data in the form of a poz differ manufacturing report. and better income numbers, though not very good spending numbers from the consumer. tuesday look for factory orders and vehicle sales. and on wednesday, look for the adp report along with an ism services report and the fed's book comes out in the afternoon. thursday claims and productivity enroute to the big day, which is friday where we get the employment report where 220,000 jobs were created in the month of may, afr t unemployment rates remain unchanged at 5.4%. all of this will figure into the fed's calculation about whether or not and when it will raise interest rates. for nightly business report steve liesman. >> steven friedman joins us now to discuss which economic report the markets will be watching most closely. >> the senior investment str

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >> and more evidence that the u.s. economy is improving modestly. according to the bainl book the book that providing a look at the economy, it described modest to moderate growth in most of the central banks regional districts, housing and retail industries rebounded while the strong dollar continued to hurt manufacturing. >>> chicago fed president charlesef abs thinks it is unlikely the economy will be ready for higher rates before next year. speaking to reporters, the fed official said the hurdles of rating ooirnts is high at the moment. he cited the weak economic data and if rates do increase this year it is important that the increase be very shallow. >>> the trade deficit declined sharply in april as imported fell and the trade fell and that is the difference between imports and exports tumbled by 19% to a seasonally adjusted $40.9 billion in the surge in march. it supports the notion that the u.s. economy has recovered from the very weak first quarter. >> it was a choppy trading session in wall street. stocks ro

let's bring in the chief investment strat citi and -- and steve liesman is also with us. ders, all pointing to a rebound. we're not a manufacturing economy, but does that factor into. >> yes sarah, a good place to start. i want to hear what our investment professional has to say. what i think we're seeing here what i like about this construction data is that it speaks to the theory of the springtime bounceback that you have problems in the winter tiism that had to do with things like construction. in the flatter gdp even though -- might have taken a couple tents away but it's in line with the idea that the manufacturing bounceback. i want to real you one line from one of the respondents, saying west coast port issues have eased up and our incoming imports are flowing again. that seems to confirm the idea that what happened in the west coast had an influence with what was going on in the economy. i have employment growth over 50 again. a lot of positives in the whole -- in all the subcategories here so it's not off the charts. i don't think we're talking about a 3% economy,

steve liesman will likely be asking the fed chair a question today. but first he joins us from washington with what investors should really expect to happen. and steve, the fed chair's communications skills are going to be put to the test today, i think. >> i think that's right, scott. what we're going to see is the fed will almost certainly upgrade the economic outlook today. the question ask whether or not it's going to be strong enough to definitively signal a rate hike in the months ahead. the cnbc rapid update says gdp is running about 3% rate in the second quarter. job growth averages 250,000 the past two months. wage growth, 2.3% year over year. up p brn 3% compared to the last payroll report. so clues about whether the hike is coming, we'll be watching the dot plot. watching it closely. are the fed members' own forecast for rate hikes in the years ahead. the new improved cnbc dot plot shows us. the more fomc members are at 0.63 for 2016. for 2017, 3.12. can you see how the bubble has changed in the next chart. from 2015 from december to april.

steve liesman has more. >> the i monetar fund not mincing words asking the hold of raising interest rate rates until 2016. saying they should raise until rates and inflation starts to rise. >> a suggestion that a interest raten wait a little and such interest rate hike can wait until 2016. forward governor hail brainerd said the economic weakness may not be all temporary. and issued caution in rate hikes. he is uncertain about whether the we tempora but there are more questions about the economy now than this time ted is looking at two criteria. first whether the job market is improving and er moving back toward the 2% target. but recent economic suggests there is a third criteria. officials are waiting to see if the economy can handle what they call rate normalization, or consistent march hire rating toward a 3% to 4% rate. in a recent speech janet yellen didn't call it raising rates, she called it normalizing policy as in more than one hike. >> i think it would be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federa rate target and begin the process of norma

, steve weiss and rob seechen of ubs, one of barron's top advisers and cnbc economics reporter steve liesmanwn rick santelli. our game plan today looks like this -- boom, then doom. it's the note that has a lot of big money talking this morning. why stocks will continue to

thank you, steve liesman.regard to what yellen and the fed do tomorrow joining us is ted peters chairman and ceo of bluestone financial institutions, a former member of the board of the philly fed. and ethan harris who spent nine years at the fed, wrote a book on bernanke. ted, let me begin with you. what is your expectation for tomorrow and when that first, key first rate hike happens? >> i'm projecting we are going to see an increase in september. we are going to see an increase in december. they are going to come out and pave the way for that. one thing janet yellen does not want is a big surprise. that won't spook the markets. i think we'll probably see that raise probably 50 bits this year. probably another 100 blips in 2016. >> we are nowhere near the fed's inflation target. you think they'll move before they hit that inflation target? that's one thing they are looking at. >> it's a big thing though. >> it is but fomc is very concerned about labor and employment. those numbers have been great. jobs being

senior economics reporter steve liesman, who's right? bernanke or yellen?it's hard for me to say who is right on stock valuations, because these guys here know more about whether or not stocks are highly valued. i look back at what's happened in this recession versus other recessions, have is the metric that bernanke used. >> he says he's got the math to back it up. >> i made the zero month, the last month of each recession. and the green line is our current expansion. and the red line is the one he compared us to and the blue line is the '91 expansion, you can see we've had more points in the current expansion than either of the two expansions. >> what you're telling me -- >> your math tells a different story. >> it's another way of looking at it, whether or not it's over-valuation, especially as yellen suggested relative to the underlying risk-free bond rate return, that's another question. it has been a very stellar expansion for the stock market. >> so doc, who's right? bernanke or yellen? are u.s. stocks too pricey or not? >> well, both are right of co

. >> steve liesman, thanks for that. >> let's get bill gross' reactions to bill fischer's remarks andpanel and with me is cnbc contributor brian kelly and contributor dave seeberg and four big trouble spots for nations. you just heard from the fed. no one really knows when the rate hike will come. fears of a possible greek default and third, big concerns over puerto rico's debt and fourth, china is a wild market play. let's get started with the fed. brian kelly, steve liesman said that fischer seemed to leave the door open to a possibility that a hike might not happen this year. >> fischer is generally known as a hawk so for that type of statement that's about as dovish as he's going to get. with everything that you just mentioned going on kind of the four big problem spots around the world, it's going to be very difficult for the fed to raise rates this year. you know i would bet it doesn't come until 2016 at earliest. >> right. david, is that what you see from your point of view? >> yeah. i agree with brian on that. i think it's going to be very difficult for them to do it but when

let's bring in our very own steve liesman and a member of merrill lynch to talk more about that. we talk about rents some people say it's interesting. i own, don't rent. oer, owner equivalent rent. what is it and why do we care? >> i don't know how much background you want but there's a decision that's been made by the economist with quotes around it not to put actual asset prices into the cpi or the consumer price index. the reason is because that's not really a cost of living. if you live in a house and your house is half a million dollars and it goes up to 600,000, that's not an increase for you. the way that we do that to measure actual housing cost is what we call owner equivalent rent, what it would cost you to rent a house of a similar size rather than buy it, and so what you're talking about and the significance here is rising rents will show up in the cpi and push up inflation. this is what the federal reserve wants, maybe not through this method or from this particular category here but this should end up supporting inflation here towardsled fed's 2% target. >> michelle,

let's get what it means to steve liesman. >> speak of the rap, the data beat goes on. it's chronicling a modest recovery. not a huge snap back. just this week take a look at the data. there it is. just today, trade came in better than expected. car sales have been better than expected. all coming in beating estimates. take a look at the misses over here. we missed on consumer spending and factory and services. we are tracking and we were down to minus 1%. we have come back a bit on the first quarter and up a tick today. the second quarter tracking also up a tick back towards 2.7. a modest rebound and not the huge surge we had a year ago. the range being 0.8. that's where we are. chronicling all the data and all the beats and misses. the market would trade it in for a good jobs number on friday. >> you are a smart man. she here this morning and does not see a fed rate hike this year. what say you? >> it has to do with the outlook for the economy. we will have a modest recovery that continues in the third quarter. that will lay the ground work for the fall rate hike. >>

our panel to discuss this with us, dan greenhouse and steve liesman. tim seymour.e second week of june and you are telling me we are where we started this year does that mean this is a great opportunity to get in? >> forget we are back to where we started at the year. we are back to early december levels. it's been six months for the s&p 500 having traded flat. does that make this a great buying opportunity? periods of time which the market trade sideways or unchanged over a five or six month period is not totally unusual. it happened in 2013 2012 and it will probably happen in 2016. >> why do you think so? this was unusual. you had numbers to this the other day. we've been at a narrow trading range. >> goldman sachs is making a similar point about the boringness of the market. the spread between the markets high and low over the last 70 sessions or some arbitrary number was as tight as the four tightest periods over the last 50 years. it has been a boring market. if it feels that way, because it is. >> if you look at the individual stories, there are phenomenal on

dow chemical down 1.5%. >>> steve liesman with me now to talk with nigel chalk the u.s.on chief for the imf on the day his organization told the fed not so fast. >> we got the news maker of the day. nigel chalk joins us from imf headquarters in washington. good afternoon. >> hi steve. how are you doing >> let's talk about what's behind this. first question people want to know how does imf approach the idea of advising the fed. does it feel it's not its place to advise the fed on interest rates in the u.s.. absolutely not. we advise all the central bank countries on imf policies and we look at the whole range of policies not monetary policies financial policies. that's the role of the imf. >> let's talk about what's behind this call here. what's changed in terms of the imf's outlook for the u.s. that necessitate this idea that they should wait until the first half of 2016 to hike interest rates? >> there's a few things going on. first of all, we've seen the first quarter was disappointing in u.s. and growth after the first quarter hasn't been that great. we lowered our gr

ken rogoff kevin hassert, barbara reinhard, steve liesman.75 and then we are down now 52. some turning around. but you would still, rick santelli, they still like they still like zero don't they? they still like at first blush because i don't see how 280, unless there's something in there that looks inflationary or something negative. what is bad about 280,000 jobs for the market? >> well, i mean i think the bond market speaks for itself. a couple of things. first of all, if we look at foreign exchange side which is really big, look at what happened with the euros the dollar. look at what happened with the dollar yen. dollar index is up a full penny. a quarter of a percent before the curve. look at the two-year note really flying. i had around 66, 67. it is now trading 73. i think i saw 74. but the most important part of the curve to watch with deals moving up is the five-year note yield. it's been stubborn with the curve steepening most of the year. high yield close of the year was established on march 6th at 169. last year 167. it's now tra

first breaking news on the treasury department with steve liesman. >> thanks very much.on a possible greek default, u.s. officials are urging both sides to remain at the table to continue negotiating and compromise. secretary lew has been in constant touch. officials added direct exposure of u.s. banks to greece and other economic linkages are minimal, but greece matters for europe. the u.s. is integrated with europe. sooner is preferable potential default of greece is not a meaningful deadline. >> is it fair to categorize the u.s. putting pressure on greece itself or its creditors to reach a deal here? >> i think over the weekend there was more pressure on the creditors and this idea of sustainable debt relief. they do continue to pressure greece as well to adopt reforms for the broader economy. >> thank you, steve liesman. pressure for sustainable debt relief. is there hope for a deal? michelle caruso cabrera is life in athens with the latest. >> the answer looks very far away. still going on behind me is the vote no rally. these are people who want the greeks this com

steve liesman has all the details.d report all around. >> i see three economic themes. i'll walk you through where i see it in the data. first, the u.s. job market is prospering despite the hit to jobs from lower oil prices and strong dollar. second. the consumer looks to be bouncing back. the strong job market looks to be attracting workers from the sidelines back into the labor force. here's the data. up 280,000. unemployment ticking up because it attracted almost 400,000 workers back to the work force. average hourly wages up 0.3%. march revised up by 34,000 to 119,000. here is where i see the important economic themes. look at leisure/hospitality and retail. up a combined 88,000. those are consumer discretionary items. maybe the consumer coming back in. temporary help up 20,000. all this happening while the oil patch, mining down 17,000 suggesting that the u.s. is able to overcome the drag from lower oil prices. economists saying it is an impressive impressive, consensus-smashing rate of u.s. hiring. september rema

steve liesman. >> there is a development in a brewing battle between the new republican head of the house financial services committee and fed chair janet yellen. in a letter sent to hensarling, yellen says the fed is declining to comply with a house subpoena related to the leak of confidential information. yellen is saying the subpoena according to the office of inspector general and the justice department would interfere with their criminal probe. she's saying the fed will comply with the subpoena after the probe. hensarling issued the subpoena on may 21. now the fed responding saying the subpoena interferes with a criminal probe. it's you now in hensarling's court to see how ugly this battle wants to get. bill. >> all right. steve, thanks very much. the relations between congress and the fed are pretty low ebb right now. >> we're in what we call a big brother banking leg la ging regulatory environment. and the issue before the financial crisis, nobody be was minding the store. not regulators not investor not congress. and now after the financial crisis, you have a lot of people who wan

. >>> san francisco fed president john williams set to speak on the economy, steve liesman back at headquartershey, steve. >> john williams is the first fed official to speak since janet yellen's press conference. he said he still believes 2015 will be the year for rate lift-off, but at this moment he remains in a wait-and-see mode on rates. and reason he is still not convinced that inflation has bottomed out. he does expect in his forecast to see signs that inflation is coming back towards the fed's 2% target. expects that to happen next year. whey thinks is going to happen is what's already happening, the dollar has weakened from strong levels earlier this year. oil has bounced back. those both should end downward pressure on inflation and boost it in the months ahead. he does point out that waiting too long to hike rates poses its own risk and sees solid improvement on the or side of the mandate in the labor market. pointing out that most new jobs are full-time and higher-paying jobs and wage growth is beginning to take off. he's fully satisfied on one part of the mandate. is not at the mome

steve liesman joins us now with the details. hey, steve. >> the fed's book showing an economy bouncing back modestly but still struggling with things like the challenges from the stronger dollar and lower gas prices. in fact, it was interesting to see the one place where economists expect to see the benefits of lower gas prices consumer spending not uniformly obvious. spending was up and some said lower gas prices were a help but others said any effect yet to materialize. they did see a negative effect of lower energy prices in manufacturing growth drilling declined in five districts. here's some other comments on manufacturing. steady to weaker in dallas where you might expect it because of energy as well as in kansas city where manufacturing declined sharply. only slight growth in philly moderate growth in four districts, and flat in five districts. the effects of lower nnlg prices ton manufacturers were evident all the way to boston. on the plus side the commercial and real estate and residential real estate sectors improved.

. >> steve liesman standing by with breaking news, steve? >> thanks very much. federal reserve reporting that overall debt in the economy in the first quarter rising just 2.8% for the smallest increase in four years. a modest rise in household debt and federal government debt actually contracted for the first time since 2003. that, however, the result of extraordinary measures. taken by the treasury. to keep from hitting the debt limit. household net worth rises by $1.6 trillion to a new record of $84.9 trillion. give me one of those. household real estate rose by $411 billion, to $21 trillion. and household equity were up by $5 billion. one thing tracked was owners real estate equity. how much of their homes they own, it rose to 55.6, the best level since the fourth quarter of 2006. as mortgage debt declines overall liabilities decline and equity values in homes rise. scott, so good sign for the consumer to go along with today's retail sales report. back to you. >> perfect segue. what do we make, are we feeling better about where we were? now where we are? and

steve liesman here now with exclusive result of our cnbc fed survey. what does the survey say is. >> this is really interesting, mandy, and what you'll find and see in a second is there is support for change at the fed from people who you would think would support the fed. our 39 respondents including a lot of economists fund managers and analysts. we asked three issues in senator shelby's fed reform bill. should the fomc not the board of governors, a technical issue, control excess reserves? an issue you'll be hearing more about when the fed hikes and tries to keep all the excess reserves in the fed and not out in the economy. well 50% say yes, 18% say no and 30% saying it doesn't matter a little more support than we found in other surveys. what about more transparency at the fed, a check for senator shell peay? releasing the transcript in three years, yes, 71% and no 18%, another check for senator shelby and reform and mandy, you'll be right in the shot. >> i'll move out of the shot. >> should the new york fed president be approved by the senate nomi

steve liesman has the private payroll data and a special guest. >> thanks.that private payrolls in the month of may rose by 201,000, a bit below the estimate of 215,000, they revooid down april down 4,000 to 165,000. show you a couple of the details here. goods producing actually up just 9,000. services powering ahead 192. and there's that nonfarm payroll estimate, 225 for friday from the government. construction, 27,000. but inside of that what you see is that manufacturing was down 5,000. but those construction numbers are along the lines of what we saw some better construction numbers from the government. let's bring in mark zandy from moody's analytics who calculates the numbers for adp. mark it seems to me that what we've had is a slowdown in growth of the jobs market. not a crash, but we were at very lofty levels and now things have seemed to have settled down in that 175 to 225 range. >> yeah i think that's right, steve. i think we were 250 to 300k at the start of the year. now we're probably 200 to 250k which is still very solid at 200 to 250k that's

let's bring in steve liesman with an update on the economy. what is your reaction to what phil was telling us about more and more people turning to the leases. or the year leases. >> i think it's a sign of potential problems but as far as i can tell not a systemic risk issue. just not enough money and the question whether or not the federal reserve has control over whether or not they can intervene in a market that can be a bubble out there. i have to ask a question. are you sitting down or standing up? >> i think i'm standing up. is that good or bad? >> i need you to sit down because i am about to report a rare upgrade to first and second quarter gdp. the spending data was lame. the income data was better and the construction data was better. if you look at the rapid update i have a .1 increase. that had gone down down down. second quarter also up a tick. another thing that had been quite a bit downwardly and now with a range of 0.8 to 4. a massive up great to the forecast at 2.1. there is the atlanta get that was bringing up the rear. they w

the senior economics reporter steve liesman who was out there with the band and right now, here he comesladies and gentlemen let's hear it for him. i see three economic reports and here they are. the u.s. job market is prospering despite the drag from low oil prices and a strong dollar. the consumer looks to bounce back and you will see that. the strong job market looks to attract workers from the sidelines. here's the data. mandy gave you that number with appropriate gusto in her voice. the unemployment rate ticking up to 5.5%. we brought the people back into the workforce. wages ticking up strongly. labor force participation rate and don't get too excited about it. it's going in the right direction. 34,000 extra jobs. here's what i'm talking about. i look at the gains in the retail sector i see gapes in areas where there is discretionary spending and two areas where the consumer has been mia. we have been waiting for them to come back into the workplace. >> hotels and bars and restaurants and amusement parks. maybe disney is gearing up for a good summer here. all of this happening with

steve liesman has more on the numbers.picture of overall improves economy. here's the data. right in line with expectations. they were up 1% and the core retail sales number that feeds into the number. jobless claims remaining. here's the details of the retail report. with the rebound in gasoline prices, that will help flatter the number. building supplies up 2.1% a good sign for the housing market and then clothing stores and department sales and sporting goods also up very decently, going along with the employment report that we had, showing better retail and leisure and hobby -- leisure employment. amherst points on the that the may report was just as strong as the may employment report over at capital -- it's now possible that gdp didn't contract in the first quarter. chris rupp pill mintsing no words as retail sales taking over means it's time for fed liftoff. the second quarter at least look to be nearing 3%. sara? >> that's good news. looking forward to that rapid update. >>> nike announcing it signed an eight-year

steve liesman is live with more on what we can expect.ay. >> sarah, thanks very much. here's what we know about a rate hike. when and if it comes, there will not be a specific wink and nod like in 2004 where they sell telegraphed that rates will go up at the next meeting. the fed is swearing it's data dependent. that means take how what they say about the economy. that will tell you whether or not rate hikes are coming. expect janet yellen to craft the first photograph very carefully to send a signal whether rate hikes are on the way. now, it's well to remember this was going to be the big meeting back in the fall most of wall street believed the first rate hike would come in june but the strong dollar a weak economy, and oil derailed that plan. are we back on track? the fed will upgrade the outlook today. they say the gdp rubbing. wage growth up 2.3% in the last payroll. that's up.3. the unemployment remains unchanged in. that's because the labor force in may grew the most it has since 2008. leadership at the fed grappling. it has to fac

steve liesman is here with the results of the cnbc fed survey. >> reporter: wall street seized a greeknecessarily an american strategy. what you can see in the survey is that 50% now see -- believe that greece will leave the euro zone in the next three years. that's a big jump from 39% in april. i want to show you what they think about the other countries. very low percentages for other weaker european countries. 12% for portugal and 8% for italy. only a slight rise for greece. the idea of greece cascading is not really in the card at least not at this time. take a look at the biggest threats to the u.s. recovery here and you can see they're all global here. 25% judged geo political risk as the highest. global economic weakness still high. then you get to domestic concerns 17%. this was mostly the winner most times. and then over here i want you to flag this. rising interest rates are 4%. low relative to the other ones but coming on fast. starting to get worried about the overall situation with higher interest rates and the effect on the economy. put it all into the hopper and we have

. >> i want to get to steve liesman on hq out of the imf and the fed. >> thajs. a thanks.the united states to await the first half of 2016 to hike rates. echoing the bearish or dovish commentary we've gotten from some fed officials. saying the united states should wait until wages begin to rise until hiking rates. it's slashing its forecast for u.s. growth this year from 3.1% from the april assessment down to 2.5%. saying it doesn't see the fed hitting its 2% inflation target until mid 2017. right now, best we can assess the conventional wisdom is for september rate hike. the first one in what will be more than nine years. now the imf suggesting the fed should wait until the first half of 2016 before it hiked rates. >> thank you very much, mr. liesman. >> imf urges mcdonald's to sell breakfast all day long. >> that's how denny's -- they would tell you that's their secret. the grand slam which i take it with lipitor. it's dynamite. >> a good combo. is that patented? >> if you go on youtube, there are 15 versions of grand slam. 40 million people plus infinity members of the

steve liesman back at hq with more. >> thanks very much.ormer undersecretary for international affairs of treasury who moved to the fed giving her first major speech on the economy and she is down beat. saying a rate hike is possible. she says the data so far does not suggest a significant bounceback for the economy. she says the fed could hike rates before the end of the end of the year. on the economy, she talks about the dollar saying stronger dollar delays the return of u.s. rates to normal levels. its rise reduces net exports and drag on exports can last for some time. foreign head winds from foreign economies being weak hurts u.s. manufacturing and u.s. inflation, pushing it downward. consumers have so far showed themselves not to be inclined to spend the gas price wind fall. the pace of job gains slowed. very down beat on the economy saying the economic data needs to clear. needs to come to a clearer view before rates would go up. still suggesting rates could go up before the end of the year. simon? >> thanks very much. >>> at least

that, of course would be our senior economics reporter steve liesman and also with him is diane suanne who has been tweeting up a storm during the news conference. what did you hear from janet yellen today? >> you know, i think they're on track to hike rates. as long as the economic progress continues, i don't think there's a great mystery out there. and all you've got to do is look at the dots. and the dots that ten members see a hike 15 probably see two quarter point hikes, that's clear. with a short horizon until the end of the year. i think those dots become more meaningful. and she talked about the idea when i asked her about there being progress on the economy. here's what she said. >> we agreed that labor market slack has diminished to some extent in the immediate period. and obviously, we've made considerable progress in moving toward our goal of maximum employment. so in spite of the fact that there is some progress on that front, the committee wants to see some further progress before feeling it'll be appropriate to raise rates. >> and that's what they expect bill. she would

. >>> steve liesman is here and he has more on the numbers, as well. steve?nsured unemployment rate is the lowest we've had. bottom line unemployment claims are low and they will certainly suggest to the broad economic community out there that we're going to have a really strong jobs market out there. we're looking for 225 tomorrow. obviously, adp came in lower than expected. but, i don't think anybody is going to change it at all. i ink the we're still looking for around that 2.25 range. >> roger mcnamee is here and he tells us what he sees. my guess is silicon valley has a distorted view of the jobs market. >> i think it probably does. >> he made some interesting comments about the debt bubble that he sees building in the united states. roger? >> i have a lot of concern that in 2008 we had a financial crisis and we never really went after any of the root causes and never created any kind of regime that gave the perpetrators of that bubble and the consequences of it any penalty for having done so. so my anticipation is we're just in the countdown now until t

. >>> in the meantime, bring in steve liesman who has more on those numbers.e index was unchanged and looked to be up 0.2. >> whoa! say that again! say that again! please. the pce -- >> monday i was playing a great gig on saturday night on the beach. >> welcome to monday morning. >> now i'm here on the "squawk box" set on mandonday morning. >> the intel deal. we'll go back to that in a minute. >> that might be worth a little while. >> the might come up consumption unchanged. the savings rate up to 5.6, again. cue the whoa. where is your leaf blower when you need it? i could use one. what's unclear to me is whether or not this is going to change the outlook for growth in the second quarter because it looked like you had an upgrade to spending in the previous month. up 0.5 if i'm not mistaken here. yeah, it was up 0.5 and then unchanged. i think it's about even. >> we'll just tell you what is going on here. what we thought is $54 per share. an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $16.7 billion. you're looking here. let me tell you what the ceo of intel i