are digesting those comments from fed vice chair stanley fischer in his exclusive interview with steve liesmanrom jackson hole. going to run through the interday chart, guys, tell melt message of the market, not clear to me, take a look at the dow, news on the comments from fed vice chair fischer, the dow rallied hard into positive territory, now given back nearly all of that ditto for thesome and p 500 as well. look at that intraday here, into those fischer comments, bang, into positive territory, fairly decisive decisively, now all disappeared. the dollar, however, has stuck with its gains and there it sits, coming off highs, but still, that is a very, very clear message, at least to me from the dollar market they think the for rex market, they think a rate hike is coming in in september. what is going on with yields? theoretically, they are moving higher, too, a decisive move, given back more of it far higher than before the interview. the price of oil, which has me completely confused, the strength from the dollar should push it lower, right? oil going higher as well. here's some of what s

the inflation rates while low as steve liesman mentioned, if you look at the dallas fed, 1.7%.f you look at what was for g & p deflator for the first quarter is 2.7%. >> u.s. data are good but he said something that you have said before which is that this chinese devaluation may have backed the fed into a corner where september is concerned. what should we make of that? >> i didn't hear that. i think he was very clever the way he pointed out, he said a small devaluation and he also pointed out that the direct impact of china on the united states is not great. it's the ancillary impact that floats to the other countries where it has a greater relationship. so i heard it as very balanced. i think september is still very much on the table. i think cooler minds have prevailed in terms of market volatility, seeing the down and then the up. and i think the one thing that was key to this interview is he didn't answer the issue, is it more compelling or less compelling. i think that's silly argument. the point is wait and see how the data unfolds and they will decide based on that data

steve liesman will be speaking with mr. fischer. also ahead, shares of kate spade down sharply this year. could the worse be over in we'll have an interview with that ceo coming up, and let's give you one more look at futures as we have about 15 minutes to the opening bell. a lot more "squawk on the street" after this. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. for in terms of the open about 14 minutes from now. it appears we're going to be opening lower. the stocks have been up nicely for the week. if you never watched what happened on monday or tuesday, you'd be quite, perhaps, happy, think it was all just good and more of the same. we'll see how we actually do open as the day goes along. this morning mylan announcin

steve liesman is here with more on that. steve? >> kelly, thanks. last week's 1,000-point plunge in the dow raises fears for next week of a real economic fallout in the form of less investment, fewer jobs and lower consumer spending. right now, the u.s. economy performing reasonably well, certainly relative to other countries around the world. solid job gains and decent overall economic growth. but the sharp selloff in stocks ends up being more than just a normal correction could zap confidence from business leaders home buyers could delay purchasers and pantheon macroeconomics wrote today, "we have to expect a substantial adverse reaction in that consumer and business confidence numbers to the drop in stock prices prices." and sometimes like the white knuckle nose-dive in 1987, the economy just shrugs them off. >> well, this is the eighth or ninth 5% plus selloff since the bull market started. every one of them has been a buying opportunity. i suspect this one will follow suit eventually. >> that makes the cause of the recent decline very significa

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman in jackson hole, wyoming. >> no bear today. stocks soared for the second straight day. helping the dow index log its best two day point gain ever. it's the latest big move in a week chockful of them. the dow has travelled more than 10,000 points since monday. and there's still one more day to go in this week. at the f tish today the dow rose 369 points, closing out of correction territory. the nasdaq out of the correction climbed 115 and the s&p 500 gained 47. could this be the turning point that investors have been looking for? bob pisani reports from the new york stock exchange. >> the rally held for a second day, but not without a lot of drama. for example, the dow went up 2% in the last 45 minutes. once again, looking at a chart of the dow really does don't justice to the volatility. this is the way to look at the day. the dow opened up and rallied another 180 points in the afternoon and fell apart in the afternoon. dropping 300 points and then rallied 330 points into the close. traders bought stocks hand over fist. seven s

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >> and late today, the president of the atlanta fed says he sees the fed hiking rates sometime this year but dennis lockhart didn't make mention of september like he last referenced a few weeks ago. he says it's difficult to forecast economic growth. >>> china's stock market plunged overnight which then reverberated across the globe contributing to the selloff worldwide. shanghai's main index fell 8.5% erasing the gains for the entire year. the slide was so sharp, china's state media dubbed today "black monday." overnight, the government eased regulations on pension funds allowing them now to invest in the stock market for the first time. but that was not enough to prop up sentiment. >>> also contributing to the nervousness in the markets was oil. prices today continued to plunge. west texas intermediate fell 5% to settle back at the lowest settlement since early 2009. the accelerating slide in prices is due to declining demand from china and oversupply of crude. and that slide in crude is expected to bring gas prices below $2 a gallon

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman in jackson hole, wyoming. >> well, the fed says it is data dependent, and today we got some more data, and it was a batch of mixed reports on the health of the consumer, the backbone of the u.s. economy. the commerce department found that americans made more and spent more in july. income rose 0.4%, spending not far behind. but consumer confidence declined to a three-month low in august, missing expectations. as we mentioned, not only was it crazy this week for stocks, there were huge moves in oil prices. domestic crude had its biggest two-day percentage gain since 2009 as traders were betting on lower prices and then had to cover those bets. prices were up 6% today to $45.22 a barrel. for the week, prices rose nearly 12%. crude's first weekly gain in some two months. >>> well, everyone is on edge because of all of this volatility. we're looking for market signals in unexpected places. this year's great american trucking show may not seem like the typical venue for investment advice, but america's biggest transports are an important econ

about but i've got go go back to you. >> we have a breaking news alert right now on the get from steve liesmanks very much. bloomberg out with a statement acknowledging it was the source of the relief. they're scheduled to come out at 2:00. instead they came out in that half hour between 1:30 and 2:00 bloomberg saying in the process of preparing bargained material, we inadvertently sent a headline. no word on how this happened. they have checks and balances to make sure it doesn't. but it does. >> taking credit. >> credit or blame, brian. >> kritd or blame. i was trying to be polite. listen, we receive this happen with many news organizations, but, you know, ultimately there's somebody putting something somewhere or a button is hit or a computer is fired early. we've seen, have we not, the federal reserve release it on its own. >> yeah. and one hopes that news organizations are very, very careful with this material. i know we all. all you can say is it's a human process and sometimes it breaks down. >> that's why you have a suitcase chained to your wrist. >> if anybody could have been here, 1:

. >> the federal reserve vice chairman stanley fischer speaking with steve liesman ahead of this is big speech at the fed's annual retreat in jackson hole, wyoming scheduled for tomorrow. steve will have the highlights from his market-moving exclusive interview next. >>> former shell oil president on his march prediction that oil will be $80 a barrel by this summer. crude trading in the $40 range. that's still where it is when he made those reports. hofmeister will give us his forecast. ♪ ♪ it took serena williams years to master the two handed backhand. but only one shot to master the chase mobile app. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank. you totalled your brand new car. nobody's hurt,but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do, drive three-quarters of a car? now if you had liberty mutual new car replacement, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels. smart. new car replacement is just

steve liesman, thank you very much.for our other daily segment trading nation, and today we trade apple. it's had a bad run lately, for apple. it's down 10% over the past three months. dennis davit and david sbeerg head of equities trading and what are the options markets telling you about the future prospects? >> the interesting thing about what the options market is telling us right now is there's in the a lot of fear in the market. there's a lot of uncertainty about why the stock is down so much. i've heard various different theories over the course of the day but usually you look to options, the downside options like insurance against your apple position and they explode this in value. we're not seeing that today. if anything, i'm seeing people buying upside exposure to apple so the options market right now is saying they don't really -- no one knows why it's selling off but they are looking more towards a rebound in the stock than for it to continue to sell off. >> okay. let's go down to david sieberg, listen, you

>> steve liesman thank you so much. over to the cme group and rick santelli. >> before we get into the santelli exchange i like that analogy, look at it with one eye or the other. but my feeling is, is that many that measure the markets, regulate the markets, policy up the markets are kind of like this when it comes to the markets, not left eye, the right eye, they're both closed. this is not an insult. i just think that i'm surprised that in steve's survey of economists, that it wasn't 17 out of 17. economists tend to be hat in hand with whatever press release comes from the fed. i think the fed officials, not all of them, but most of them don't have a market-intrinsic feel. they're not one with the markets. so this dynamic has many different alternatives. in the end, i think t.a.r.p., i think flash crashes and i think the market has a view here that doesn't seem to be in tandem with the kind of the tailors of the emperor, i think that in and of itself is going to make normalization is a bit of a roller coaster ride. i

is dudley speaking in new york about the markets, about september, about december, let's get to steve liesmans already in jackson hole prepping for this weekend. steve? >> carl, thanks very much. bill dudley speaking in new york on the regional economy. actually came out after his statement with a different statement on monetary policy. in which he used the term that everybody is going to be talking about, that september is less compelling and i only push back on sara eisen a little in the last hour that he took it off the table. he did not take it directly off the table. said it's still a possibility. listen to that sort of ad hoc statement that dudley made the last half hour. >> from my perspective at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago. but normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting as we get additional information on how the u.s. economy is performing. >> what he said was that international events that have been going on, the strength of the dollar, the

thank you. >> thank you. >> steve liesman. for more on the fed's looming rate hike dennis gartman is the editor of the gartman letter. he joins us now. dennis, you think that the fed is not going to raise until next year. >> i don't think the fed has any choice but not to raise until next year. i think the fed made a very serious mistake several years ago when they didn't take rates higher then. they had an opportunity to do so. they didn't. if you move rates higher now it would be an even more egregious mavg on their part. i think it would be at least until the middle of next year and now, given the chaos that has erupted in the global capital markets. september the odds of a rate cut in september 1 in 1,000. in december 1 in 100. in march of next year 1 in 50. and it doesn't move up much beyond that after that. they have no choice but to sit tight and leave rates where they are, and they have to come in and do something to ease monetary policy. they need to expand the monetary base. and they need to do something to wre weake

steve liesman has the story. >> reporter: as temperatures rise in august, the debate over the fed raising rates in december is reaching a new level. >> you're looking at a significant correction in u.s. equity markets and pushing the u.s. economy back into recession. >> reporter: there are plenty of reasons the fed should stay pat and not hike. china's changing yuan, and yet -- >> we've seen the economy gaining momentum in the second quarter, and we think that will carry over in the second half of the yert. >> reporter: second-are quarter grows is now forecast to be above 3%. consumer and business spending looks strong enough to power growth near 2.5% in the current quarter. job growth continues to run above 200,000. >> if you come down from mars today and looked at the level of the economy, you would say, gosh, you know, we're way behind the curve. >> reporter: it's a quandary the fed faces. the job numbers are moving in the right direction for a hike. the inflation numbers seem to go down every time the fed considers raising rates. on wednesday the minutes of the fed's july meeting. the

steve liesman in jackson hole at a big fed gathering. est ester's got it going on, steve. 3.7.an awful day to quit sniffing glue. never a good day. let's go. it's "airplane," steve. >> i didn't quit today, joe. you know? because i have a lot of work. real quickly, a very good report. almost everything revised up. consumer spending, business investment revised up big. a word of caution here. a big part of the upward revision of inventories. we have a near historic and may have been historic. i got to check. a rise in inventories in the second quarter. every economist on the street thinks it works off in this quarter and future quarters. so don't take this 3.7 at face value. the reality is still strong and weaker than this and you get payback, some economists 1.7 in the third quarter. the atlanta fed, lower for the third quarter because of an inventory drawdown from the historic build. another thing to watch out for, huge surge in state and local government spending. a big part of it. i don't know if that continues, either. underlying fundamentals, final sales pretty good. l high

we have steve liesman standing by to break down that data for us coming up. >> you know, i was going to say, these are two sides of the same coin in a way. speaking of breaking down, take a look at oil, it's down more than 4% today, it's trading below $41 a barrel. we're watching to see if it punches through that $40 mark. look how close it is right now. $40.62. and the september wti contract, down almost 5% on the session. again, we're looking at lows since march of 2009. we've got a top commodities trader to discuss whether a floor is in sight. and, of course, all of this feeds into what will the fed do? what is inflation going to do in this country? >> always interrelated. that's for sure. meantime, $1 trillion, that's how much money has come out of emerging markets over the last 13 months. we're going to discuss whether you should be following that herd or maybe take a risk in the developing markets. that's a lot of money. a lot of zeros. >> it's a lot of zeros. >>> and 11 years ago today, speaking of a lot of zeros, google went public, the stock p up -- well, we should say 1,500

>> thanks to professor feldsoon to and professor liesman. steves and, yes, you have a big interview coming up. narayana kocherlakota will be - bbe -- on. >>> and later on "squawk on the street" the interview with stanley fischer. i got kocherlakota right, but this is fischer. >> i will be on "squawk alley" during this. >> it's a great interview ahead of his big speech saturday. >> really? >> i'm doing double duty. >> that's a long day. >> the bloom. viewers benefit. the bloom is off the rose for some of the buzziest ipos. so far more than 53% of this year's new offerings are trading below their opio price. the impact on violation straight ahead. created using digital models and real world location-based specs that taught it how to follow the wind. so while the ones on the left are waiting, the ones on the right are pulling power out of thin air. pretty impressive, huh? now, two things that are exactly the same have have never been more different. ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized. >>> welcome back to "squawk box." some of the

. >> fed vice chairman stanley fischer earlier today on "squawk alley" speaking to our own steve liesman. sfishser said economic data had been impressive and any raise in rates would be a gradual process. the dollar eventually popped on fischer's comments. we ask are we any closer to knowing what the fed will actually decide in september? b.k., i don't know if you can read the tea leaves. he sounded pretty cautious. >> actually the part that really struck me was he mentioned the chinese devaluation, and he said it could have been a big event. we're still waiting to see. because most people afterwards said oh, it's only a couple percent, it's not that big of a deal. clearly it's on the fed's radar. i think if we get a market with volatility that dies down we have the jobs number next friday, as long as that looks good i think september's still on the table. i don't think they should do it but i think they may, they want to. >> there was acknowledgment as well that market volatility could actually play a role in the fed's decision, which i thought was kind of interesting. especially next w

let's go to steve liesman. steve, clues on the fed timing?ike september is off the table, right? >> reporter: i don't think it's off the table. in fact, i want to play for you some sound that dudley had just before we cut in with cnbc where he did use the word less compelling but held out the possibility that, hey, if the data goes the way they hope it go goes, it could still be on the table. take a listen. >> at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago but it could become more compelling as we get information on how the u.s. economy is performing. >> reporter: so, sara, i push back only on the notion of on the table. it's less on the table than it was before. they talked about the effect on inflation. also saying that he sees the focus of this really about overseas economies, about emerging market economies, about commodities, about china, and less about the u.s. and so it's not something that's u.s.-focussed. they're going to wait and see and he didn't see an overwh

steve liesman is there. >> what do you think?ice interview with the kansas city fed president earlier today. >> thank you, simon. i think it's an important one for the debate over the federal reserve. it gives pause to hiking rates. you have those who look at what's happening in the economy and saying we probably should go ahead. let's keep going and keep our eye on what we should be in the long-term economy and economic outlook. >> this week's events complicate the picture, but i think it's too soon to say it fundamentally changes that picture. in my own view, the normalization process needs to begin and the economy is performing in a way that it's prepared to take that. >> this snapback in the market has to be part of the evidence she is looking for as well as data this morning on gdp showing big revision to the second quarter up 3.7%. you can see there all the different sectors. all the major levels have been revised higher. it was a big second quarter inventory build and we could have traction from growth in the months ahead

great interview with steve liesman and stand fischer. they probably haven't made up their mind yet. what is ironic, in the old days we talk about six to nine month lags on monetary policy and now we are rolling the dice on two employment numbers and jobless claims? it's hard for anybody to get their gps. >> interesting you bring up the dollar and how it's softer. ben, what do you make of that? do we need a strong dollar? >> you are looking at intraday fluctuations. the tend will go higher as long as the belief interest rates will go higher. whether it's september or december, the dollar will move higher. one interesting trade you're seeing is a great deal of pressure on the global equities while the russell 2000 continues to outperform those groups. if you invest, invest in america-centric companies. >> as we come towards the close of the session and the last trading day of a volatile month, do you take heart in the fact we are cutting losses here? people were saying we are in a situation like what we saw last week but that is not true. we are down 99 points. >> in a word, no. the f

. >> let's get to steve liesman for the jobs report this morning and whether it keeps the fed on track for a september rate hike. steve? >> thank you very much. i think the important effect of this report is it changes the burden. the data doesn't have to be strong for the fed to hike. it is only to not to disappoint. and john riding's commentary that really made me think of. this he said the remaining data is we have to be weak until december. that means the burden of proof is to be weak, not strong. they see the july jobs report as a green light for the fed to go in september. it meets the fed's criteria of further improvement in the labor market. economists say september will be the month to remember for the rate hike. hk is nhealth care is not a surprise. businesses and business services were a strong point for the jobs report. not that hiking rates will be an easy sell for the fed. you have declining commodity prices and weaker wage growth. we have to explain to the nation what exactly the fed is fixing by hiking rates. >> you know, steve, what is the market saying about how high

steve liesman has the highlights from his comments for us now. steve?> bill dudley became the highest level official on the federal reserve to address the recent market turmoil. and he said it did reduce the chances of a september rate hike. doesn't eliminate them entirely. here's what he said. >> from my perspective, at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the september fomc meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago. but normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting. as we get additional information on how the u.s. economy is performing. >> no secret behind the decision. said international events had increased the risk and impact the rate hike timing. didn't obviously take it off. he said it's important for -- not to overreact. but the federal reserve not to overreact to the market turmoil suggesting it'll go away. and the low inflation that could come from this including lower commodity prices as well as the stronger dollar. he suggested is transitory. said they're not going to b

steve liesman, bring in mad money's jim cramer his take on comeback here. history showing when there's blood on the streets it has been sometimes wise to get in. if you're looking at some of the buying opportunities out there, this time three occasion in particular, high growth, dividend stocks and domestic stocks. let's start with dividend stocks. >> i want to preface by saying it's a long day. probably people in the last half hour say chinl be down again, this might be your chance to get into general mills which is having a very good quarter reinventing either receive. pepsico, down, very levered to commodity climbs s kimberly clark, a fine company to buy, they buy back, leverage to commodity. southern if you want utility that's my finest yielder. a real estate investment trust, no reason not to have 5%, a little growth in. verizon highly yield in the dow but the yield i trust. not an oil yield. >> not an oil yield. what about domestic stocks. >> we have to go after what we just heard that we know is doing well. kroger 19 times earnings may not be everybo

steve liesman is live at the big fed summit in jackson hole, wyoming. steve. >> hey, melissa, thanks. should the fed hike? should they hold? that's the big question. here in jackson hole. we have two guys who used to be in the room not too long ago making that call. former fed governor randy crossner, former fed president charley plosser. plus are get this. protests here at jackson hole. ordinary folks out there demonstrating, holding up placards and saying -- and urging the fed to hold on interest rate. it is getting hot here in jackson hole. the sun's coming out. the mountains are coming out. come back to "power lunch" right after this. my name is peter tran. i'm a gas service representative. i've been with pg&e nine years. as an employee of pg&e you always put your best foot forward to provide reliable and safe service and be able to help the community. we always have the safety of our customers and the community in mind. my family is in oakland, my wife's family is in oakland so this is home to us. being able to work in the community that i grew up

steve liesman is live at jackson hole, wyoming where the top central bankers are meeting to discuss monitory policy. what's the verdict so far? >> the market swoon earlier for the federal reserve when it came to should they be raising rates into that environment? this rebound also in the sense how much is it linked to the idea that dudly spoke and kind of eased the pressure off a september rate hike. these are things the fed has to consider. they want to raise rates but not into a firestorm of the markets selling off. we talked to one central banker here today. kansas city federal reserve easter george and she's aware what is happening but still thinks because of the economy that they ought to hike. >> if i thought the economy was not on relatively sure footing here, then i think the complications from that would cause policy makers to think about that. again, given the fundamentals, i think we're in a good position now and we can't wait until we can determine whether market conditions are just right. >> as you mentioned, melissa, hawks like george got some support today through the gdp da d

our senior economic reporter steve liesman. breaking news on petco.t's happening. >> petco is where the pets go. i'm a pet owner but what we have right now is an s1 ipo filing. petco files its s1 for going public. no indication on the exchange it will be a at or what the ticker will be, but we know among the underwriters are big names like goldman sachs, b of a morgan lynch, wells fargo among the underwriters listed for this offering. no indication on size, the typical $100 million placeholder amount is there. for context remember this is a company that went private not too long ago, about $1.8 billion was the leverage buyout, the lbo, that tpg capital and leonard green partners did to take this company private. petco looks like it will go public again, no ticker, no exchange. we know a placeholder amount but still underwriters listed goldman, b of a, merrill, more details to come. we kind of had an idea about this at the end of july, some of the reports surfaced about a possible ipo for petco. back to you guys. >> we'll see if performance starts to i

first, there's the overall fear of the fed that was spread today when cnbc's steve liesman broke a story saying that atlanta federal reserve president dennis lockhart thinks the fed should tighten in september. i have multiple problems with this kind of thinking. i sau thought the fed was supposed to be data dependent and can we at least wait to see what the former data says since we heard from the fed last week that we need to see the data, and lockhart's comments caused the dollar to surge. remember, the strong dollar is bad for our market. it caused oil to turn down, and i know that's odd, but weaker oil is bad for the market right now and interest rates to spike higher and always bad reversing what looked to be a pretty decent rally. look, i get that it's not lockhart's job to pop up for the stock market, and this isn't china. still one day after the eighth anniversary of the rant about when the fed knew nothing and ahead of the financial crisis and it is not lost on me that the same lockhart poked fun at my lant and dismissed it with laughter and that's according to the minutes two

steve liesman talking about the statements from the treasury secretary. >>> we continue to hover justnterestingly the vix setting new highs for the year. and one of the biggest monthly gains going back to 1990, the 10-year has finally started to move, giving into some of the selling. we started the morning around 2.07, now around 2.04, 2.05. in determines of 300-point losses on the dow, we've not had back-to-back 300-point losses since november of 2008. which the thick of the financial crisis. joining us today, brian jacobsen, a chief portfolio strategist at wells fargo. brian, good morning to you. >> good morning the it's been pointed out virtually nothing is helping today. there's waves of negativity from desk to desk. whether you work on 4-x, whether you're covering geopolitics what to you are the most important themes right now? >> well right now i think we're just in a pessimism loop unfortunately. where there is a lot of negativity and there's reason to be somewhat negative about some of the information coming out of say tension between north korea and south korea, you also have

and our senior economics reporter steve liesman and heidi richardson. she is the head of u.s.tegy for blackrock's i-shares business. it's good to have you here today with us. our game plan looks like this, google anniversary, 11 years ago today, the stock went public, up 1500%. now our experts tell us where the stock could go from here. knock-knock, the latest new social app backed by sir richard

our senior economics reporter, steve liesman. >> yesterday the fed president said because of the rates left compelling. we talked to esther george. she didn't use the words equally compelling. that's basically what she said. she said the possibility of a bear market and stared it down. >> this week's events complicate the picture but i think it's too soon to say it fundamentally changes that picture. so in my own view, the normalization process needs to begin and the economy is performing in a way that i think it's prepared to take them. >> well she got some ammunition this morning in the form of the gdp numbers. look at that up 3.7%, better than a big revision from the first print on this, which was 2.4% and better than the weak first quarter. there's claims coming right in suggesting another good month of employment in august, pending home sales. up less than expectations but holding on to really strong gains in the prior month. just want to quickly show you the gdp details here. you don't have to get too involved in the numbers as much as you have to understand every single major c

and our senior economics reporter steve liesman and heidi richardson. she is the head of u.s.estment strategy for blackrock's i-shares business. it's good to have you here today with us. our game plan looks like this, google anniversary, 11 years ago today, the stock went public, up 1500%. now our experts tell us where the stock could go from here. knock-knock, the latest new social app backed by sir richard branson looks to get you better connect. we begin with stocks under a lot of pressure on this hour. despite good retail news from target. perhaps it's the wild session in china overnight giving investors pause. and a how about energy? energy stocks tumbling at this hour. oil is dropping hard. you've got the comment from one fedhead. so much at this hour to chew on. wti is down 3%. it hasn't closed below 41 or hasn't been below 41 since march of 2009. oil majors are selling off, refiners are selling off. is that what the culprit is today? >> i think it is. yes, i do. i think when you look at energy equities down 2.6%. you have the energy statistics that were released. we ha

i'm joe kernen, along with michelle caruso-cabrera and steve liesman.i think this is redundant. why do i have to say that. >> >> becky and andrew aren't here today. >> that's why we know. >> they could be off today, sick, or on assignment. >> it doesn't say any of that. >> we are here. adp private payroll economists forecast an increase of 215,000 for the month of mailing it in. that's the number they give us every month now. they don't do any work. ah, 215. it's august. down from 237,000. checking on the u.s. futures. then europe was up across the board, and i think we're feeding off that, even though disney will hurt the do you this morning. it's no small feat. there are some -- they were stalling so you look up at the prompter and start typing. but yesterday, in, you know, the great show that premiere last night at 10:00. >> west texas investors -- >> we're interested in it, but you saw two on this side, and two on that side, and they called you a rose between thorns. >> isn't that charming? >> yeah, because -- are they hill billies? >> they call the

steve liesman joins us now with more. >> michelle this friday's jobs report, important for investors, step in a series of reports closely watched to gauge. whether the fed hikes in september. here's what we are looking for on friday. 2:15 unemployment rate. average hourly wages seen going up a healthy 0.3% t. pay rolls they are talking about. if it comes in at 2:15. the jobs report is one piece of the puzzle for september. the rate hike. here is a road to the hike. the pcp index the feds indicator. there is the jobs report on friday. very quickly, here's the gain that we ask our fed movers, they come in 44% say it needs to be in the coup in the 225 area for the feds to have an initial hike. >> where are you? >> i'm at 100% if september. >> 100%. >> where are you? >> i'd say 75. the data has to go the right way. >> all in good shape for a rate hike? >> you think that's it? >> oh no i think that they're letting us know. it's the countdown to do it. do it. >> you do need the data. you into ed to cooperate. >> data schmata. it gets revised. a month later, we were wrong. just do it. it's s

one man who will never miss, steve liesman. >> reporter: good morning.rmoil, economists polled in the cnbc fed survey still see a rate hike this year, but they have pushed it ahead. looking at the results, what was a september call is now a december call. we'll look at the percentage on that in a second. pushing it ahead three months. when it comes to when the fed will allow the balance sheet to decline, also pushed ahead three months to december 2015. the so-called terminal rate, where will the fed when it gets done hiking is now the third quarter of 2018. also ahead a quarter. they brought down that terminal rate to 2.79% from 2.98%. jim bianco writing in with his results -- with his answer says, data dependency has been put on hold. it's now about financial stability. what i found interesting about this survey was, a lot of folks still holding out for september. i guess there's three weeks left. durables this morning, another jobs report. if you look at the percentages, 38% still clinging to this september idea, saying the fed would hike then. 62% say

steve liesman is on the ground there as the central bankers begin to gather from around the world. >>, thanks very much. the great rate debate is to listen to the markets that are still off around 7%, 8%, 9%. pick your nup. an economy that's growing at a stronger than expected 3.7% as reported today by the government. esther george, kansas city fed president or host here at this conference says she knows the answer and says, listen to the economy and not markets. >> this week events complicate the picture. i think it is too soon to say it fundamentally changes that picture. in my own view, the normal zati ization process needs to begin. the economy is performing at a rate that needs to take that. >> >> here is some evidence or ammunition. 1.4% higher than reported. housing higher, government higher, specially state and local spending surged ahead more than 4% with one caveat here. big inventory build and economists expect that's a workoff over the next several quarters and a lot in the third quarter. that could take some shine off that number. a big bounceback from the 0.6% weak first

rather like europe as well but i want to take you back, mike, to a conversation i had earlier to steve liesman. that is do you think we might continue to see volatility here which could be a vote of confidence for our economy? >> yeah. i think it's possibility that volatility is here to stay. i think longer term, whether they raise in september or december, where the markets end up at the end of 2016 or end of 2017 are going to -- is not going to matter whether they go in september or december. that's really the conundrum. those who want to be safe and secure have carob on the sidelines. they may be foolish on equities but it's exactly the market you want to be deploying. so we continue to try to preach diversified portfolios with some cash on the sidelines when things get a little bit cheaper which domestically and actually around the globe things have gotten cheap over the last couple of weeks. greg, mike, thank you very much. you can go to powerlunch.cnbc.com. that is powerlunch.cnbc.com. back to you. >> our chief correspondent john harwood has been sitting down with some of the most popula

steve liesman joins us with more as we get ready for a very important gathering this coming week. >> every point down in the dow now makes it more important, as fed officials set to gather next week for that annual jackson hole summit. do they go for a hike in the mountains or hibernate in the hills? their stated intention of raising rates coming up against a financial slowdown in china, this market meltdown the past several days, plunging commodity crisis, a strengthening dollar and weak overseas growth. they were already on the fence radar at the july meeting. all those factors worsened this month. janet yellen is not going to be at the conference which is set to focus on inflation and monetary policy, but stan fischer will speak on inflation. the key will be those talks during those walks in the woods, and whether markets get any sense which way fed officials are leaning on rate hikes for september or december. or even not at all in 2015. i'll be listening for whether emerging market central bankers argue to the u.s. fed their situation is so precarious the fed should stand pat. w

steve liesman showed you thisserier. we took a look at this chart. the thai baht.ably, they are not the epicenter of this move these days. you can see at least we're not seeing any exacerbated moves. currency pegs and different scenarios, a little bit different between then and now. then take a look elsewhere in the markets. what's happening here with the volatility index. going back 20 years, here's what we are right now and we're seeing a spike all the way up to 22. a pretty decent move higher but this big blip here was the financial crisis. in '97, these are the levels we're talking about. if not there yet. we have an elevated vix. i'm not trying to down play it but it's not quite at the levels we saw back then, and one more place to look. this is a little bit more interesting because we want to see that flight to safety stride happening. ten-year treasury notes. we know when safety comes up, the bond prices get bid up and yields go down. if you go back to '97, we saw a trend lower here but we haven't seen that develop as much right now. maybe it's just the begi

our senior economics reporter steve liesman is here to untangle it all for us in the context of the data dip -- >> if you're not confused, you're not paying attention the the debate over the fed raising rates reaching a new lovell as the temperatures rise in august. lousy manufacturing data this morning in the form of the big negative print for the empire state manufacturer, but homebuilder confidence soaring to a ten-year high. add that to the continued conundrum -- growth in jobs or low pressure -- the inflation data is not rat the fed looking for some improvement, so new deflationary impulse also come from the stronger dollar, which comes from the chinese devaluation, lower commodity prices and lower oil prices, but better growth data. q3 runnings a bit above trend. all of that makes the fed minutes and inflation the most significant releases, but don't force, a lot of what we're talking about has happened since that fed meeting at the end of july. the cnbc rapid update running at 3 had the 4 for the second quarter, a numb her originally reported at just 2.3. just a bit above trend wi

what's happening in the market. 12 out of 12 people believe there's a hike in settlement that steve liesmano. you know you're not sure. it's 5050. question. what happens when the stock market guys like you who aren convinced of september move to a position where they realize it's about to happen? what will happen to this market? >> you know, i'm going to answer that question in a little bit different way. i think you have to be careful and they have to be careful about the possibility of hiking in september and somehow suddenly convincing the market that they're on a much faster paste pace than they want to be. i would argue the pace -- >> that's not -- >> i'm at a ballpark of once every other meeting. >> forgive me for interrupting. we've run out of time and i want to ask you this question. if you guys in the stock market realize a hike is coming in september regardless of if it's due or not, what will it do to the markets? >> if it's perceived that there's one every market every other meeting. the stock market don't like that well. >> are we talking about a marginal pressure on the market

suddenly, you are going to way for lockhart to come on and tell steve liesman, we have to tighten. it is going to cause the dollar to get strong and you will have to go through this nightmare. either fed rake or chaos. >> the read from last night among some is the way the fix has been working the past couple of days. they are trying to signal that they are not swinging for the fences or going for a 10%. do you believe that's true? >> i think they don't know what to do. there was a press conference that was loosely translated to being, fear the market, respect the market. mali mal is rolling over his grave. he is like, are you kidding me. he was talking about manipulating the market, because sometimes it can be like a herd of sheep. >> this was an out of body press conference. >> and one that foreign press were not allowed to be in. >> cuff a press conference if you don't let some of the press in? >> i think the chinese are struggling really hard with being open. stay closed. geez, i don't want to be in that kitchen. geez, what are they doing over there? honestly, that press confere