. >> reporter: the new york ted official told steve liesman and me that the fed is taking this issue very seriously and cyber security at banks arountsed world that the fed transacts with is "critical to the stability of the global financial system." in february crooks got into the computer systems at the bank of bangladesh and requested 35 transfers of nearly $1 billion out of the bank's account at the new york fed. in new york, systems blocked some of those transfers. but ended up releasing $81 million to accounts in the philippines and sri lanka. some of that money was sent on to casinos in the philippines and converted to chips on the gaming tables there. authorities still don't have any idea who stole all that money. despite that blazen heist, the fed official told us that the fed has no control over cyber security at the global banks it does business with and that means there's potentially an enormous amount of money at risk, as many as 250 central banks and entities around the world have accounts at the new york ted. that totals about $3 trillion in assets. roughly $80 billion

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman in washington. >>> still ahead, you work hard. you save. but how do you know if your retirement account will be affected by the new rules out today? >>> the owner of three volkswagon dealerships filed a lawsuit against the aautomaker, suing over the emission scandal and use of software that allowed more than half a million vehicles to emit more pollution than legally allowed. volkswagon is also facing lawsuits from the justice department and some states. >>> the former ceo of massey energy was sentenced to a year in prison and fined a quarter million dollars. don blankenship was given the maximum sentence for his role in a 2010 west virginia coal mine explosion. that explosion killed 29 workers. blankenship was convicted of conspireing to violate safety standards. a misdemeanor. but he was acquitted of felony charges. >>> here's something you don't see very often. a labor union protesting in support of the management of the company. that happened today in boston where pilots for united airlines picketed outside the office of a hed

steve liesman. >> we have a market flash on world wrestling entertainment.ry thompson. >> this is a good news, bad news situation. shares are lower. the good news first is that the company had a record number of sub xrishs, 1.8 million. that's the biggest annual show. the bad news is they are expecting a large number of those subscribers to drop off during the second quarter. that's pressuring the stock, down 5% on the news. >> big hedge fund battleground stock. just about 20 minutes to go. the dow and s&p are still in negative territory though off the lows from rlier today. >>> coming up in an exclusive interview with she'ila bair, we'll get her take on her new role at the finance firm. >> and she's a movie critic too. first, baseball, national pasttime gets under way in full, we'll get the state of the $9 plus billion business that is baseball. rob man fred will join us. >>> the 2016 major league baseball season is officially under way, the bulk of the opening day games are today. 22 teams scheduled to play although a couple of games have been pushed back

we were talking about that earlier with steve liesman.odels as sully pointed out. they need to reform the whole modus operandi. it needs reform. i do think republicans have, for many years, been way too hawkish about the fear of inflation. i wrote a column about this, mea culpa, three, four years ago, i said there is no inflation. stop yelling. we should have a slashed corporate tax rate. >> that's ridiculous. you know, larry, about the fed, you worry me when you and i agree so clearly on something. you got a labor participation rate that is still very, very low. you have an economy that -- where you had so many people walking part time who want full time jobs and many people are discouraged to look for work. no time for the fed it raise rates. larry and i are in agreement. this is the first time ever on this program or any program. >> we agree, 18, 19 years ago, i remember it clearly. >> once every couple of decades. >> march 3rd, 1991, both agreed on something. that's what it was. robert reich, have a great weekend, thank you very much.

steve liesman with those survey results.nwhile, facebook into consumer virtual reality, oculus rift shipping now. not all have received it yet. how far away are we from virtual reality becoming mainstream for consumers? and what's it going to take to get there? jeremy bailenson, director of stanford university's virtual interaction lab. his work reasonable quoted by the supreme court in outlining effects of immersive media. engineer jeremy, great to have you. i want to get straight to questions of ethics and morality. i've tried a number of different headsets. now we worry about the impact of bullying in social media. given what we saw a few days ago with twitter sort of corrupting microsoft's tay and what we're dealing with now in encryption rules, could we end up with a society where there are whole realistic virtual spaces encrypted and we don't know how people are interacting and what the impact is on them? >> first of all, thanks for starting with such an easy question. let's get right into it. so virtual reality is an

steve liesman thank you as well. very interesting. one day giving your daughter the opportunity she deserves? is it finally witnessing all the artistic wonders of the natural world? whatever your definition of success is, helping you pursue it, is ours. t-i-a-a. prge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world. ♪ [engine revs] ♪ ♪ [engine revving] the all-new audi a4 is here. >>> yes, i am. so final thoughts on the wisconsin primary as the polls are now open in the badger state. i think hillary clinton is going to have a better night than the polls are predicting. what do you think? >> i don't really know what's going to happen

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> still ahead, texas, north dakota. two states feeling the pressure of falling crude prices. there's another one you may not be aware of. >>> oil prices rose sharply helped by expectations. production will continue to decline and renewed optimism about the u.s. economy. prices today gained more than 6% and maintained those gains after oil fields services firm baker hughes said the number of oil rigs fell for a third straight week. to put it into perspective, over the past two years the price of domestic crude has fallen more than 60%. when you think of big oil-producing states, probably texas, alaska, north dakota come to mind. but one of the nation's top oil producers is also new mexico which has relied on oil and natural gas for as much as one-third of the state's renews. not so easy when the price of oil has fallen so sharply. scott cullen reports on new mexico's state of pain and what it is trying to do to transform itself. >> reporter: it's a weekday in hobbs, new mexico. and it is painfully quiet. at the martin bo

steve liesman as well joining us here. >> steve liesman partners. >> steve liesman incorporated.ou. i want to show you this, scott. since the january meeting, the dow is up 12%. since the march statement, the dow up is 4%. i know you don't agree with everything the fed is doing. i know you don't like everything the fed is doing. but don't fight the fed has been a pretty damn good investment strategy so far. should we stick by it? >> for sure. look, we have a fed put here, right? every time the market starts to go lower in a significant way, the central banks around the world, not just the fed, step up and promises us more liquidity and we should enjoy the party while it lasts. >> the fed put in play means learning to ride a bike. you have the dad or mom running behind the kid. the fed is keeping the stock market on the bike. >> that's right. they don't want to let risk assets fall in price too much. >> what exactly, though, is the put? is the put them staying on the sideline when it comes to the race? that put is going to expire. expiration is coming for that put. >> i think -- i

this comes in an exclusive interview with cnbc's steve liesman. steve filed this report. >> reporter: the new dallas reserve fed president robert kaplan took office in september, indicated he's going to be a patient policymaker, not inclined to raise rates in april, but considering june as a possibility. he's aware that the first quarter data looks like it's going to be weak. he want which expects it to reb. >> the move in december i think was the right move, but i think we're going to have to be slow and patient. doesn't mean standing still. i think we'll make another move sometime in the not too distant future if gdp recovers in the way i expect. >> it was a wide ranging interview. we discussed a series of economic issues, especially those in the dallas district, principle among them, energy loans and the decline of the price of oil. kaplan said he expects there to be losses at the banks in his district but does not see systemic risk. on the issue of building a wall, he was diplomatic, said he wasn't getting involved in the political debate, but

steve liesman, thank you, david kelly, thank you. >>> in corporate news, marriott shares are tradingn eroding the effective value of its stock and cash offer for starwood to about $75 a share. that's in addition to the existing almost $6 from the timeshare spinoff. the higher, 82.75 all cash offer from the chinese, of course, collapsing last night. the ceo of marriott putting a brave face on the fact that countering the first bid from the anbang consortium still caused him to raise his offer by $1 billion in order to win. >> we would love to have this company for a billion dollars less. no doubt about that. but they were real with their first bid. they came in at $78 a share, which was 10% 11%, 12% more than the deal we had on the table. fully financed, fully credible. essentially no conditions. we got a notice from starwood we were out. >> arne sorensen speaking on "squawk box." eunice yoon have from beijing. why did the anbang offer collapse in this way? >> it was really a surprise. we heard that anbang had pulled out. anbang had really caught everybody off guard because it really

robert kaplan with our steve liesman. >>> straight ahead, are investors in asia worried about a tradeore on that when we come back. from bank of america to buy a new gym bag. before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time and 2% back at the grocery store. even before he got 3% back on gas. kenny used his bankamericard cash rewards credit card to join the wednesday night league. because he loves to play hoops. not jump through them. that's the excitement of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you. thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. megan is home doing yoga. last saturday, she was shopping here. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ bulk from boxed didn't only save megan $33

breaking news and steve liesman. >> thank you very much, scott. out this hour saying is it appropriate to gradually raise interest rates. mester is a voter this year. thought to be more hawkish. she suggests she's on board now for the rate hikes saying after raising rates policy remains easy for some time. this is justified, she says, because of head winds including the strong dollar, decline in manufacturing, they justify the easy policy. and gradual hikes. she said the risk to moving too soon are equal to the risk to waiting too long. she talks about this issuef

our steve liesman is back at hq with all the details. in this one. >> yeah, this is an interesting story. the cnbc fed survey 48 respondents, economists, market strategists and fund managers, they perceive a growing difference between janet yellen, the fed chair, and stan fisher, the fed vice chair. take a look at the numbers we came up with. first i want to show you this graphically here. here's where yellen and fisher were before on our dove/hawk index zero being most dovish, ten being most hawkish. fisher in the middle about a 3, call it on the dovish side. what's happened in this survey they've moved apart. yellen below 3 on the scale, fisher not much movement. this gap has widened between the two in the mind of the market and mostly because yellen, especially coming from that speech she gave at the economic club of new york perceived as being more dovish. that's where the increase of the gap came. so it's growing in market sees that significant. take a look at where the rest of the fomc comes in here. you can see first of all fisher'

our very own steve liesman is going to sit down for an exclusive interview with rob kaplan coming up at 14:00 central european time. meanwhile, a number of other fed presidents are giving lectures later today. the philadelphia fed president patrick harker, san francisco fed president john williams, and richmond fed president jeffrey lacker all due to speak. do you want some pant mine? you never have to look much further than the u.k. parliament. 2010, david cameron said i want an end to punch and judy politics. he faced mps for the first time since admitting to benefitting from his late father's offshore fund. in a raw us can session, he made a statement on his tax affairs. >> there have been some deeply untrue and profound allegations against my father. this investment fund was set up overseas in the first place because it was going to be trading predominantly in dollar securities. it made sense to be set up inside one of the main centers of dollar trading. there are thousands of these investment funds, and many millions of people in britain who own shares, many of whom hold them th

first, steve liesman says the hawks are wrong about one thing. >> the fed gathers to meet this wednesdayes. that's for three reasons. first, overriding concern over the effects of global economic weakness on the u.s. and limits to how far the u.s. can hike when major banks are in negative territory. second, there's been a large influx into the workforce in recent months. the past year, 2.4 million americans have joined the labor force and most have found jobs. it's the biggest year over year increase since 2007. and while americans have come back to work, wage gains are modest. so the influx of workers not setting off alarm bells at the fed. to the contrary, it's affirming fed chair janet yellen's dovish view that there is lots of slack in the market and more room for fed policy to stay easy and put americans back to work without igniting inflation. no one can say for sure it won't eventually cause inflation. but for now yellen's views on plentiful labor slacks are dominating the federal reserve. let's bring in marty feldstein and richard fisher. what is wrong with this line of thinking?

. >> the new york fed official told steve liesman and i that fed is taking this issue very seriouslynd that cybersecurity at the banks around the world that fed tranacts with is critical to the system. what happened in february is crooks got into the computer system and authorized transfers of nearly a billion dollars out of the bank's account. systems blocked some of the transfers but released $81 million to accounts in the philippines and slee lafrpga. some was sent on to casinos in the philippines and converted to chips on the gaming table there's. authorities don't have any idea who stole all of that money. now despite that heist, the fed official told us that the fed has no control over cybersecurity at the global banks that it does business with around the world. and that means there's potentially an enormous amount of money at risk here. now as many as 250 central banks and entities around the world have accounts at the new york fed totaling $3 trillion in assets, roughly $80 billion is wired into and out of those accounts every day, the official said. now that staggering pool

to steve liesman. >> the federal reserve in the march meeting debated a rate hike in april, but a majoritythat seemed to prevail. a number worried that head winds would subside, global head winds, would subside only slowly. several expressed caution about that april rate hike. some said, however, the april rate hike might well be warranted and a couple actually wanted the hike at the march meeting. we know that the kansas city fed president, she dissented and wanted to hike. we don't know who the other one was. there was heightened global risk. that was the view of the majority here. the fed worried about running out of ammunition, with rates low, near zero, the fed would have little ability to respond if the economy were to make it a downturn. most saw downside risk to their inflation forecast and there was concern over weak foreign growth and a strong dollar. many thought it was prudent to wait for additional information on the economy before hiking interest rates. the fed had a bunch of debates. they debated whether they were at full employment or whether or not still further to go on e

steve liesman was there. >> the first time three living former and current fed chairs appeared at the same time, call it fed all-star night as janet yellen was joined by her predecessors and they were on stage and alan greenspan joined via satellite. yellen rejecting the charge that the u.s. is in an economic bubble. >> this is in the economy on a solid course. not a bubble economy. we tried carefully to look at evidence potential financial instability that might be brewing and some of the hall marks of that clearly overvalued asset prices, high leverage, rising leverage and rapid credit growth. we certainly don't see those imbalances. >> trouble is even green social security span admitted they are not great at forecasting. >> monetary policy is largely economic forecasting. our ability to forecast is significantly limited. and we have to keep the context of what we say in the context of what we know. >> that said, former fed chair ben bernanke was upbeat, at least that recession wasn't around the corner. there was no reason to think they would be more likely to think a recession in 2

. >>> a senior new york fed official spoke with cnbc's steve liesman and eamon javers about the cyberfears. hello, eamon. >> yes, a new york fed official told steve and they the fed is taking it very seriously and that the cyber security of banks around the world that the fed transacts with is critical to the stability of the global financial system. remember, back in february, the crooks got into computer systems in bang ladesh, and authorized transfers of nearly $1 billion out of the accounts at the fed, and in new york, they blocked some of the transfers, but released $81 million to philippines and sri lanka and some of it was sent on to casinos in the philippines, and converted to chips there on the gaming table, and we don't have any idea who stole all of that money. despite the brazen heist, the fed official told us that the fed has no control of the cyber security over to the banks that it does business with, which means potentially an enormous amount of money at risk. there are nearly $3 trillion in assets and rough ly $80 billion is wired into and out of the accounts everyday

he will elaborate further with our own steve liesman. he as an exclusive interview with rob kaplan on "squawk box" 8:00 a.m. eastern time. very interesting but a kaplan is new to the fed. this is his first time speaking out in an interview. he's got a different background than some of the other heavy duty ak dcademicacademics. he was an executive at goldman sachs. he specialize the at harvard in corporate governance and leadership. >> and less in economic academics. >> maybe that's good. we'll hear from rob kaplan in a few hours. >> the justice department is reportedly in talks with hedge fund och-ziff capital management. "the wall street journal" says authorities have looked into whether the firm knowingly bribed government officials to secure investments in libya and other african countries. they argued the behavior wasn't widely known and shouldn't be held criminally liable. >>> the ceo of royal dutch shell says they may sell some assets. shell said it would sell $30 billion in assets to finance that deal. speaking a the a conference

and i think steve liesman and his poll today showing us home values matter as much as jobs.o i think that that keeps the support under discretionary and staples. >> pete, consumer stocks trading at all-time high, home depot, mcdonald, he is at a lauer, coca-cola. >> yeah. for a of reasons. when you look at pepsi, you also look at coca-cola and spread themselves away from cola products, and into milk and everything else. people are looking at these names and feel very, very comfortable with where they're trading right now. they don't feel they're too stretched. probably a bit stretched. >> i was going to ask if you think -- which would you -- >> say are daggone stretched? >> pull the register. >> as much as i like -- minnesota, wonderful company, general mills, feels like it's stretching to me right now. but i think some of these other names, can continue on. just based upon not just the yield, but they still have growth in certain parts of the economy. and outside the u.s. as well. >> jimmy, buys or sells? >> for our clients, we hear them calling in and asking for yield. thi

steve liesman standing by. handing it over to joe and kelly.welcome back. just seconds away from the first read on the nation's first quarter gdp and the weekly jobless claims. futures under pressure after the bank of japan didn't deliver the stimulus or actions many were expecting. dow poised to open lower, 129. right to the numbers. see how they move markets with rick santelli. >> first look at first quarter gdp. always a biggie. we were looking for up .7. survey says up .5. this is where it was hovering with atlanta for a while. upgraded a bit on numbers like a smaller trade deficit. but of course, that follows the 1.4, which is unrevised. and it is the smallest since the down .9 of the first quarter of 2014. remember, it was up .6 in the first quarter of 2015. let's look at jobless claims. 257,000. so last week 247, lowest in 73. upgraded to 248. then we add 9,000 more. there is your jump. let's go back to the gdp. look at some internals. personal consumption expected up 1.7. up 1.9. the gdp price index expected up .5, is up .7. the persona

steve liesman listen up.his afternoon entitle when the federal reserve speaks the world listens. it will feature fed chair well yell and ben bernanke and alan greenspan and paul volcker. >>> in corporate news, tesla is in focus. elon musk saying his electric carmaker will give an update on model 3 reservations. we're taking guesses. you're playing "price is right" rules. tesla model s taking on a boeing 737 aircraft in a drag race. this is pretty amazing video. the vehicle can't fly but held up -- held its own hitting up to 175 miles per hour. the 737 hit 161 miles per hour right there at takeoff. the race was more than a cool stunt. tesla and qantas announced a partnership. >>> the masters begins today in augusta, georgia. check this out during yesterday's wednesday annual par three event a record nine holes in one were hit including this one by gary player. here's his reaction. >> what happened today is beyond one's come preending. there were nine holes in one. i don't know what the odds are. 20 million to

steve liesman teased us in the last hour. wants to see in the white house, steve. >> there is a difference between who they think will be in the white house and who they want to see in the white house. fascinating results from the 48 respondents including economists, fund managers and strategists. here is the number. 80% believe hillary clinton, the democratic frontrunner, will win the presidential election in november. 13% say donald trump, and 7% the third choice, don't know, zeroes, goose eggs, nothing for sanders, kasich and cruz. no belief on wall street that either one of those three will win the white house. that is different from who they think should win the white house. we asked them who has the best policies for the economy and the stock market. once again, the ohio governor, john kasich, wins the contest. 48% say he has the best economic policies. 50% say he has the best policies for the market. hillary clinton start of just barely in the second spot here. ted cruz in the third spot. interestingly, support for don

first up steve liesman, what is your number? >> look at the flowers. 190 something like that.sure what that flower is meaning here. it is april flowers bring may showers. >> hippie dippy. >> may flowers. >> some rain above you. >> you want to tell us the number. >> no i'm not is going to bother you with it. >> rick santelli what's your number, sir? >> 188. 188,000. >> 188,000. >> i'm high ball right now. 220. >> 220. okay that's nice. we like a high number. that's good. tim kaine? >> even though april is the coolest month i'll say 222. >> alan krueger we play "price is right" rules. >> i'm committed to 205. >> you don't want to change? >> any guess from 175 to 250 is quite possible. >> we have a tight range this time around. >> this is a weird month because we didn't get the moratoriumal data ahead of the payroll. >> i used the isms in my model. it makes it more accurate. >> what's the krueger model? >> the krueger model? it's a wide range. the numbers get revised. >> can you guess? >> no. i look at the consensus and shave one way or the other. the consensus has the lowest for

steve liesman has some headlines. >> reporter: thanks very much.y in a speech backing a cautious and gradual approach to rate hikes. he says that's the appropriate way to go. speaking right now he says, he talks about the uncertainties about the effect that weak foreign growth on the u.s. and u.s. economic growth and when he looks at the whole picture he says you know what? the risks remain tilted to the down side. at the same time his forecast is one of about 2% growth. he says that's a little bit above what he thinks is trending in this economy and says that growth will be sufficient this year to push down on employment. he looks for 4.75% unemployment rate. he sees a possible decline in inflation expectations and that's really what worries him. he sees diversion signals in the economy with some soft sectors, some with only moderate growth. consumer spending with business spending has moderated and he expects moderate growth to continue along with better housing stuff. finally he looks to the empire state numbers. he says manufacturing has reboun

. >> we had an argument yesterday about whether we should assume -- steve liesman says you'll assume that seems low. i don't know if 3% is just a risk free rate of return. you need move out on the risk spectrum just a little to get 3. >> do you. the way we think about it you have to have a broadly diversified portfolio. in the old days people used to think primary fixed income because that was safe. then theory brought equities into retirement picture. right now you got to have everything. you got to have fixed income, equities. if you can do it and we do you have to have alternatives. agriculture, timber, commodities, all of that is part of the story. >> your job got a lot harder and you were also at the fed. so it's great because -- i'm not saying the orphan is putting out the fire, but think about it. the fed to some extent has orchestrated these low rates which has made it harder for anyone to build for retirement. >> these low rates are an important part of getting the economy back on track. we have to keep the big macro picture in mind. >> maybe two or three years ago they were

. >> steve liesman, thank you very much. >>> robert frank is joining us now because there is a very newy interesting story out of this state, new jersey. the richest man in new jersey is moving to florida and he pays so much in taxes, that it's going to screw up possibly the entire state budget. robert frank, a name known for our viewers. >> and that name is david tepper. he filed a declaration saying that he was officially a resident of the state of florida. now, he also as of january first filed a declaration saying apapolooza management was now officially headquartered in florida. florida of course has no income tax. this has a huge impact on the state of new jersey. just take a look. new jersey income tax comprises about 40% of all revenues and top 1% pay with about a third of that income tax. frank haines, finance office to the senate budget and appropriations committee of new jersey, he says, quote, we may be facing an unusual degree of income tax forecast risk if news reports are true that the wealthiest man in new jersey has shifted domicile to another state. so unusual degree o

steve liesman is back at hq.g. >> big debate on wall street over weak first quarter numbers. is it a sign of really weakness in the economy or statistical noise? we have data this weekend, fed speak may have put meat on the bones of the argument. the forecast had been as high as 2.3% in february. it's come all the way down. every data point that's come in the average now -- the median now is 0.6% with some, as carl said, as low as 0.1%. the big one here, a half point on march 28th when it came to disappointed revised down spending numbers. all of these data points are different parts of the economy, retail, inventory and trade. the impact of the dollar. this is not isolated to a single part of the economy. let's see what different wall street houses have done here with their tracking. the atlanta fed, down 2.5% to 0.1. barclays down 2.2. goldman sachs down 1.2. mark zandi don't 1.1%. the bull argument is hey, we're back again to weak first quarter growth. the seasonal issue we've seen time and again. 2014, negati

steve liesman has that. >> boston bank president eric ros rosengrin saying markets may be too slow in in rate hikes. he says the market path of rate hikes is too low. i believe it will likely be appropriate to resume the path of gradual tightening sooner than is implied by financial market futures. eric rosengren one of the most dovish voting members of the fed open market committee. he says the u.s. has weathered foreign shocks well and risks from abroad are easing. he expects a strong economy this year and full employment along with rising inflation. he says it will rise gradually. the big problem is this market is priced from zero to one hire this year. he says that is too low, but he does not give a number for the number of hikes he think is appropriate. >> the probability of a june rate hike is 20%, 25%. the fed -- he's not contradicting the other fed members, is he? he's saying watch the dots. >> i think he is contradicting a bit in the sense that first of all he has to know he's perceived as a dove. when a dove comeses forward and says the market has this price too low, you hav

steve liesman joins us. >> there was change in the technology statement prompting that whether the fedould change it in june, september, once this year, twice this year. let's think about the changes, it eliminated concerns over global risks. as definitely downgraded that concern which is in the prior statement. it says growth appears to have slowed. that's the opposite. then jobs have improves but it also limited inflation picking up two hawkish and two somewhat dovish statements. the meeting is pegged for august for the next fed hike so it seems to be in line with a market that's having a post meeting debate. path theon economists over there saying june is in play, but we still think that brexit referendum just eight days after the meeting is a serious barrier to action. speaking of data, two more jobs for the next meeting, but the real question is the growth data turn around. tomorrow, the government is expected gross domestic product 0.4% for the first quarter. ahead that at 0.8. we're looking for half of the growth. so what is that? another weak first quarter after a string of wea

steve liesman paying attention to that. no move expected.s about growth. >> which show? >> power lunch. >> and you'll be there. >> interesting results. first thing we start with the good news. here we go. probability of recession. it's come down to the lowest we have had since september here. there's the spike up we had. 28.8%. the idea that we were worried about a recession. >> 48 respondents. economists, fund managers, strat jis. guys on the street. one of the highest we have had in the history. now it's back down. still a little bit above average. the bad news is the lower probability of recession comes with lower growth numbers. here is the trajectory. december 2014, we thought that 2016 growth would be up near 3%. down, down, down we go. >> good call. the first time below 2% on year over year change. not much more. more growth in the u.s. driven by housing investment. it is a 2.0% world. chris rupkey says the worry here is too many sectors are having problems and could drag us down near recession. let me show you the big concerns to the

steve liesman has all the details on that. yes, there was a lot of substance last night. was for all the fed chairmen. >> it was definitely interesting. it was the first time the three living former and current fed chairs appeared. yellen was joined by ben bernanke, paul volcker, and alan greenspan. they gave a qualified but generally healthy outlook to the u.s. economy with yellen rejecting the charge that the u.s. is in a bubble. >> we think that it's partly transitory influences, namely declining oil prices and the strong dollar that responsible for pulling inflation below the 2% level. we're making progress there as well. this is an economy on a solid course, not a bubble economy. >> you only hope this doesn't end up in a jeopardy question. greenspan was plainspoken about how difficult it is for the federal reserve to forecast. monetary policy is very largely economic forecasting. our ability to forecast is significantly limited. we have to keep the context of what we say in the context of what we know. >> no one knows that more than greenspan who famously warned abou

steve liesman is here with the exclusive results of the cnbc all america economic survey. steve? >> thanks very much. we are chronicling anger. i'm able to tell you where it comes from, what the source is, and also what it means for actual election or at least presidential preferences here. let's look here. we asked two questions back-to-back, what the control group? how do you feel about your own personal financial situation? you can see here, a majority of americans, 50%, are both satisfied and/or happy here. 20% say they're neutral. and anger on the personal thing kind of muted at 21%. we ask about the economic situation in the country, and you can see here it goes beyond the 50%, like 56% of the country are angry or dissatisfied about the financial or economic system here. you can see just 18% are happy or satisfied. we go on to politics. we have a control group question here. 802 americans surveyed around the country, 3.5% margin of error. you see here, a little bit -- sort of even on this issue of the political system in their state. but then look at this, when it comes to

we want to bring in steve liesman. he sat down with the dallas federal reserve bank mr. caplan. what did he say. >> he hit on a couple issues that we've been talking a lot about on this show. on monetary, he san jose himself to be a patient policy maker. april is out. june is a possibility. wants to see the data rebound. is not in a hurry to raise rates. thinks there will be a rebound and wants to see it first. we talk about the issue of tax inversion. let's listen to what he said. >> one of the reasons you are seeing this trend of companies looking more at taxation when revenue, growth, and margin growth are harder to come by, people look at every possible cost aspect they can improve, and that's the reason they are now looking more at taxes. so i understand why the treasury did what it did. i don't think it is a substitute -- and i don't think they would say it is a substitute for more comprehensive reform which takes into account that our companies derive much more of the revenues and profits from ougs the united states. >> three other things we talked about. energy loans, he

steve liesman is here. >> you had jim bullard talking the other day and he mentioned tax reform as something that is needed. this is part of a trend that is going on around the world, where, you know, central bankers are here with the zero lower bound. they basically actually go beyond the zero lower bound, negative interest rates have done as much as they feel they can do. they look to increase the fiscal side to step up and take that place. janet yellen is talking about that and said if there is more fiscal stimulus out there, the fed could have rates at a different level or higher level. she's also talked about structure reform being needed. nobody more than mario draghi has been looking for the europeans to step forward. kuroda in japan, come on, guys, we were going to do this as a three prong thing. infrastructure, monetary policy and fiscal policy and there ain't no fiscal policy anywhere. you see this happening. and the pressure is really being raised on these -- >> jim bullard went to tax reform. >> he talked about tax reform, education reform, immigration reform. these are all of th

breaking news and steve liesman. >> thank you very much, scott. remarks out this hour saying is it appropriate to gradually raise interest rates. mester is a voter this year. thought to be more hawkish. she suggests she's on board now for the rate hikes saying after raising rates policy remains easy for some time. this is justified, she says, because of head winds including the strong dollar, decline in manufacturing, they justify the easy policy. and gradual hikes. she said the risk to moving too soon are equal to the risk to waiting too long. she talks about this issue of waiting too long, saying the fed may have to raise rates very quickly in the future. and she says that due to raising rates are -- not raising rates due to market volatility is something the fed should be very wary of. she says she reduced her rate path for the fed funds rate from december to march. but says now the economy has shown considerable resilience. recent inflation data, she says, has been somewhat encouraging and she expects wages to accelerate as the labor market ti

our senior economics report eer steve liesman is back at hq with what investors are expecting. >> interestingults from our survey. 48 people responded. economists, strategists, fund managers. look at their outlook for stocks, there's two big stories in this chart. the first is as you can see here the january swoon, that violent selloff thought we'd have a recession and what you see in the last two surveys we very much recovered the outlook from december from the january downturn right there. so back where we thought we were from the december survey. the other thing is the sense right now that we're fairly fully priced on the s&p at least for this year for 2016. just looking for like another 1% for the rest of the year. and all the hopes and dreams of the market are now in 2017 where they're looking for a 7% return from the current level. here's what scott wren from wells fargo investment institute wrote about, in our opinion the market is already look at 2017. and that is why the s&p 500 is near the all-time record high. but he says the cyclical bull market has more room to run in our opinion

steve liesman is looking at the data and rick had some caveats and some comments. how about you?. >> yeah. >> yes. >> could you illuminate us? >> first of all, there is no inflation. the year over year on wholesale prices, on the top line, it is minus zero and on the core, just a percentage point. this should help companies in the sense that their input prices are not going up. in some cases, depending upon what your inputs are, they are actually falling. final demand for goods down 2.6%. prices. foods down 2.5%. year over year. obviously, energy down 14%. this should be something that helps. unfortunately, what they are not getting is a pull on the demand side. that's where we go over to the retail data and it just takes me a second to find that here. what we find is big drop in auto sales. down 2.1% on the month. that follows a decline in january, which is a little bit confusing. anyway, some of the other stuff is okay. furniture up, 0.3. perhaps reflecting the stronger housing market that's out there. clothing and accessories down. department stores down 0.6%. food and drink u

. >>> steve liesman been reacting off camera the entire time. there's something interesting in this. >> grunting. first i want to say how much i like the tsa and all of the u.s. customs guys. i think they are alter fix and great people. and joe, when i see your picture up on the wall i'll take it down. >> what your a smugler. >> i kiss up because i want to get through the line. i don't want any problems. so let's talk about cpi. some people have thought it was about to take off and you have had a rise up and you had yellen say that she's a little bit skeptical. some of that skepticism seems warranted. you have guys out there who insist we have this up with yard trend but don't expect to it be a straight line up. down a tick as rick said. core retail -- the headline rate 0.9% year-over-year. you had reversal in apparel went up one sixth went down this month. gasoline was down 13% now it's up 2.2. maybe a little bit more of that to come. thing a lot of people are watching in the first is what's happening with rents and ownership. that's up 0.2% up

steve liesman is slacking. >> he's new. richard just left end of last year. >> all right.cations rising 2.7% last week. that was entirely due to a jump in refinancing activity. >> we do have a few stocks on the move this morning. constellation brands posted better than expected revenues. that stock is up by 2%. wells fargo downgrade from neutral. the stock is fully valued relative to its peer group. the stock is off by 11 cents this morning. cisco upgraded to neutral from underweight at jpmorgan. the analyst is arguing analyst estimates are conservative enough to offset the risk. >>> now let's talk a little politics. the results in from wisconsin. john harwood joins us now. he has the numbers and new delegate count. >> reporter: andrew after we got third wave of exit polls, yes that was a nod to steve case and the votes count last night we had what we had been waiting for in the race. a large state in which both front-runners donald trump and hillary clinton got whipped. let's look at the democratic results. bernie sanders had a clear majority over 50%. the question is how