i'm steve liesman. >> a week that saw sizable stock market gains finished mixed. the dow was able to eke out another record close. blue chip douw up, and s&p 500 which had had records fell fraction alley, so it's a streak is over, but another continues. this was third straight week of gains overall for stocks with all of the major averages seeing gains of 1.5% or more. >>> meanwhile in france, french officials spent the day tad mots deadly attack in nice. it left 84 dead including ten children and adolescents. more than 20 >> tonight, france is once facing an uncertain future. just 24 hours after an athat left 84 dead including dozens of children, over 200 people injured, many critically, world leaders including u.s. president obama and french president are tieing it to terror. >> we will not be deterred. wee we're going to keep working attacks. we're going to keep taking out isil leaders. we're quoing to keep standing with our partners from africa e afghanist and we are going to destroy this vile terrorist ors. >> just 24 hours later, the -- in nice has been clea

steve liesman takes a look. >> reporter: on wall street, the old adage sell in may has given way to buy, buy, buy in july. many on the street or many at the beach are caught by surprise. there may be something real here. that is summer time surprises from the economy to earnings to the federal reserve. exhibit one, the u.s. economic index, swung from around minus 24 to the end of june to positive 25 now which indicates the economic data is surprising to the upside. the better than expected jobs report and housing data and consumer spending has powered the index to a 50-point swing. it doesn't tell you whether the market will go higher. it suggests that the stock has to catch up with better data. >> we've had several false warnings in years past and in this year, too. some have been because of external shocks but when you have weak economic data give way to these stronger reports, these positive surprises have reinforced confidence in markets. the economic surprises have helped a lot. >> exhibit 2, the market seems cheered by the 50% of companies beating estimates and beating revenue. bo

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >> with wall street less certain of a hillary clinton victory in november than it was a month ago, the democratic party prepares to formally nominate her for president. uniting behind the first female candidate to represent a major american political party at the top of the ticket. tonight clinton's husband former president bill clinton will be on stage to make the case for hillary. john harwood is in philadelphia for us to night. john, in a party that's being pulled to the left by bernie sanders' supporters, is bill clinton a centrist still the sure fire rock star hit he once was? >> well, the party moved to the left. but the center has moved to the left. the country has changed. it's a different makeup. comet is different. we have more income inequality. so bill clinton is not going, however, tyler, to focus his remarks as we understand it on the economic issues themselves. he's going to try to paint a very intimate portrait of hillary clinton as somebody who is committed her life and career to fighting for women, for kids, for social

we welcome in melissa otto of tiaa and cnbc's steve liesman. steve, to you first.an we speculate on mr. bernanke? >> there to say everything he's been saying the last 10 or 15 years has been wrong and bank of japan needs to get out of negative interest rates or stop stimulus? or there saying the bank of japan should double down and do more. my guess, the latter. i don't know what they think around the board mip want to remind you what ben said back in 2002. a quote, scott, you may remember, and may be able to recite by heart. a money finance tax cut is essentially kwiv tloept milton freeman's famous helicopter drop of money. notice he didn't say this, quoted milton saying it. didn't stop everybody in the press calling him helicopter ben. speculation jpmorgan among them saying maybe the next step is a helicopter drop for bank of japan. that means essentially perhaps a tax cut on additional spending by the fiscal side financed by the bank. >> melissa otto on the phone, great to talk to you, melissa. especially on this day with this kind of speculation. what do you th

steve liesman, steve, stick around. scott minerd is going to join ugh, with guggenheim partners, got about $240 billion under management. scott, we talked about this just on air, but i want to show viewers, since the last fed rate hike which was in december of last year, look at the returns we have seen across a variety of asset classes. the dow up 6%. oil up 15%. gold up 25%. and the 10-year yield has gone down by 30%. in other words, bond prices have gone up. that benefits mortgage holders. if you bought asset classes at the fed hike in december, you probably made money. why do so many people seem to fear the fed? >> brian, it's the conventional wisdom, right? if the fed starts to raise rates, that's going to be bad for stocks, that means bond prices are going to go down. people think that gold will go down in price. and playing with conventional wisdom has proven to be an unprofitable bet. >> because i just can't buy -- and you'll forgive me, sounds like you agree, i can't buy the premise if fed raises rates by a qua

. >>> and steve liesman takes the other side of that trade. you don't want to miss that, coming up on "closing bell". >> that looks so good. turns romantic why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis and a $200 savings card. >>> welcome back.

steve liesman has our story. in the heat of summer, washington got a blast of cold economic air on the economy. the government reported tepid growth in the second quarter of 1.2%, more than half of what economists expected. the report showed the prior two quarters were weaker than thought and it raised worries that the economy could be slowing down. curiously, consumer spending did well with business investments that kept growth down. >> consumer rs the economy. that's the piece that matters. that's flektive of strong payrolls and resilient wage, that's companies continue to give money back to shar. not willing to make that investment and -- >> has declined for three quarters antd some believe it on gets worse from here. from lean greene u.s. lighting tech and equipment spending, some point to a shash decline in inventory. they say companies might need to keep destocking th so inventory building could help future growth. they also believe government spending growth will help rebound. the weak growth to rule out a

speaking the morning at the world affairs council of the greater houston on the world economy, and steve liesmanin with us the latest on that. and did it change the view x steve? >> no, it does not, simon. we are halfway through the official week of the fed talk, and some of the speeches are repeats, but the answer is that the u.s. central bank is not in any hurry to raise the rates this summer or the push back against the market view, and some form of the multi month hold on rate hike, and the fed president robert caplan saying that the fed is going to have a slow and gradual approach to the rate hikes is appropriate. it is not as accommodativaccomm because the market is sensitive to the strength of the dollar, and he says that the fed is a accommodative as the dual mandates of low unemployment, and the stable inflation are not m met. and the minneapolis fed president said that the fed can be patient in letting the economy heal. that is following three other speakers this week, and the st. louis fed president jim bullard wants the fed to hike, but then to get to the 63 basis points to stay ther

steve liesman is watching. >> do the wrap it up, up date. boil it to one number. up 0.1. k cnbc, wrap it up, tracking 2.7. range, 2.3 to 3.3, solid rebound from the first quarter. favorite economist, at the top, stephen bradley, and moody's, 2.8. bottom, morgan stanley, 2.3. all data coming in on the up side except 2%, and gdp and retail sales consumer, uppowering this second quarter rebound. back to you. >> stephen, thanks. next week, kayla earnings from at&t, gm, starbucks, morgan stanley, mattel, you name it. >> and interesting financials are drirching t idriving the ma. top line, shaky, though. >> meanwhile, still expect trump to formally roll out mike pence as his pick maybe tomorrow and then the rnc next week. back to post nine and "the half." >>> all right. thanks so much, carl. welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner here at post mine. with us for the hour today, stephen weiss, jim lebenthal, josh brown and here, gfi group chief macro strategist. happy to have you with us today. top story, herbal life affair taking a dramatic turn today as the fec and g

let's go to steve liesman. >> thank you very much.ederal reserve released minutes and six fed banks want to raise by 0.25% in june. two new banks, boston and st. louis joined four who'd already been there. richmond, san francisco, cleveland and kansas city all wanted to raise by 0.25%. there's little parsing of this. boston, richmond and st. louis, they took their vote, their boards of directors voted to do this before that weak may jobs report. but three other banks, cleveland, kansas city, san francisco, they took their vote after. so they didn't care about the weak may jobs report. they still wanted to raise the discount rate. that's the rate that banks go to the window, the fed's discount window for emergency lending if needed. the fed banks who wanted that hike they expected a stronger economy and higher inflation. but the federal reserve board they act on these requests from the bank's board of directors, they left the discount rate unchanged at 1%. and, tyler, that is a 45-second story about how much the world has changed in ju

steve liesman joins us with the latest.uch do you think the tenor has changed here. >> what we had yesterday simon was a fairly upbeat economic report from the fed and language many saw as essentially hawkish, but the market overall, you look at how the market is trading dovish or as not really changing the view that september is pretty well off the table. take a look at the fed funds futures percentage chance of a rate hike from reuters, 18% in september this morning. 35. you don't get to 50% in march 2000, here's what the fed said about the economy. the stuff simon was talking about. consumer spending growing, labor market strengthening, economy growing at a moderate rate and near term risks look to have diminished. if the fed intended to make the market more worried about a september hike it didn't do the job. fairly unsuccessful. and they have work to do. on the other hand looks like the fed's message it is happy where the market is priced and they will let the data do the talking including gdp tomorrow and the next job

steve liesman there. >> technology lets you to that. >> it does, yes.s very true. >>> and in the meantime widely reported 21st century fox is negotiating roger ailes departure following the sexual harassment allegations. the lawsuit from a former anchor. joining us here at post nine to discuss the ailes' legacy and fox news future after ailes is cnbc contributor and pulitzer-prize winning "new york times" columnist james stewart. >> hi, simen. >> a moment in broadcasting history for this country. >> not just the fall of one person, this is somebody who really not only shaped entirely fox news but transformed the landscape of media generally. >> the cutting edge of where we seem to be at the moment, seems to be, whether or not some of the anchors might leave with him. the degree to which he might be setting up his own network if he's minded to do that. therefore, the way in which you lock everybody down presumably in the negotiations that are under way at the moment? >> i'm sure fox is going to be paying attention to that very carefully. i think it's rea

joe terranova along with josh brown and steve liesman. they have questions as well. >> you talk about strategic alines, verizon, at&t. marni has done a phenomenal job at verizon, fits perfect will into tim armstrong, you've identified. what could ultimately be a bid are war and drive it further? >> i don't see that happening. again, i think based on reports and based on some industry knowledge, i think it's a, an absolute perfect fit for verizon aol. i can't stress enough that you can a guy in tim armstrong, and, really a team around him that has been doing a similar, if not a tad smaller, version of this over the last five, six years. couple that with -- i agree with you. marni walden and team brian anglet, team verizon put stakes in the ground to drive to the future. with resources and distribution, phones, stores, fios. that, to me, seems to be a natural fit. now, that said, i don't think it's a slam dunk and easy inside of a big, giant public company to do all the hard work that has to get done. rime not saying they don't know how to

steve liesman has detailed. >> thanks very much. hillary clinton is certainly losing a lot of ground. let's take a look at what the numbers are. 43 economists and money managers polled here. first we asked this question. what's best for the economy? if a democrat wins or a republican wins or it doesn't matter, you can see compared to june a little bit of strength for a democrat winning. a lot more strength for a republican win and people are making up their minds and i think that goes for the electorate as well. obviously this is not a scientific public opinion poll but it goes along with what we're seeing in the polls. those who say it doesn't matter and they don't, that's come down quite a bit. also the situation with what effect does it have on the economy. i don't know if we have that box here but perhaps we do. 60% say of that is negative for the economy. now the big news here. in the june poll 80% of our respondents thought that clinton was most likely to win. now it's just 52%. a bump here for trump, 26% now saying he's most

with us for the hour today, jim lebenthal, jim brown, sarat sethi, and steve liesman here on-set as well. we do begin with the markets. i said, session highs today, a strong rally following that blockbuster jobs number. 287,000 jobs added last month. way better than expected. a number of class asset, not only stocks. bonds selling off today. gold as well. equity market seems to like that. the question today, does today's jobs report give the green light to buy stocks? josh brown, i'd love your take. stocks at session highs. seems this is exactly what the doctor ordered. the fed can't go in july. after last month's terrible jobs report. concerns about the brexit. the economy maybe isn't as bad as some people thought it was going to get. is now the green light to buy stocks? >> you never lost the green light, i think. if you have an adviser who's not lost his sanity through things like the may jobs report and reminded himself, or herself, that it's a one-month number, doesn't change the world. doesn't change everything for policymakers, these types of affirmations along the way kept you fr

let's get a recap of all of it with steve liesman steve. >>> growth is going to be somewhat above trend over the next couple years but it's stressing downside risks and worrisome challenges ahead. you can see here the potential about 1.9%, we'll remain above that in '16, '17, and '18. the fund worries short-term about the fallout from brexit, and brexit volatility. younger term, the u.s. economy could suffer from aging population, aging infrastructure, and the aging middle class. if left unchecked, these forces will continue to drag down potential and actual growth. diminished gains and living standards and worsen poverty. urging the u.s. leaders to take on these challenges and addressing high public debt levels and aging infrastructure, also they supported the go-slow approach for monetary policy. several fed officials spoke in the recent days as sara indicated, including st. louis president jim bullard. he says, do you know what, i'm sticking to the 0.63% fed rounds rate idea, good through 2018, and messer saying gradual hikes are needed over time. that's not all, folks. ten more fed

our steve liesman is at head quarters. what are you finding? >> a big debate out there.ingly weak second quarter report is starting a debate about the future of growth. will the consumer lead the way back for the economy? or will this weak, very weak business spending lead to resengr recessi recession? it confirms our expectations of a coming recession. this makes three consecutive quarters of recession investment. barclays a little bit more optimistic. sharp rise in house hold spending should keep economic growth above trend. take a look at the last three quarter there is. you can see there. gdp. take an step downward in the last three quarters. it's just doing 1.2%. we're looking for2.5. the debate is how you break it down. 1.2% growth. the consumer added 2% to that. there's the beautiful chart. trade, neutral. everything else other than consumer was negative. government, negative. fixed investment, negative. inventories, negative. the asums is two of those won't stay negative. john williams, san francisco fed president. first guy out of the box since the fed meeting.

steve liesman is here to break it down. my question, steve, is what happened in may? >> that's one question that's being asked, but we have a way of resolving your confusion. >> all right. >> despite this big number, tyler, there's some good and bad news in this report. jobs did buck the declining trend we've seen since october. since october that peak in the middle has been coming down, down, down. and then as tyler quickly points out it cratered in may with just 11,000. revised down to that from 38. so the snap back in june, you have to average out that weakness. and that's what economists are doing. that's how they're treating this number. they average out over three months and there's your three-month average chart. comes out to 147,000, a much more manageable realistic number. they think it's more likely the right trend of job growth. note it's below the 200,000 trend of earlier this year, but it's above the 114 three-month trend of last month. one more good and bad pair, job growth, broad base big gains hospitality, retail, information technology along with manu

steve liesman joins us now with that. interesting. >> this is a potential blockbuster.being presented at the in cambridge. it argues that bernanke, paulson, and geithner, they were all wrong, that lehman brothers could have been saved. john hopkins, a well-regarded professor. he says in a 218-page paper, the government had the legal authority to bail out lehman and it would have worked. hank paulson, the former treasury secretary and tim geithner said repeatedly the fed could not bail out the bank because they couldn't take loss on the loans. they insisted lehman didn't have the collateral to pay back the fed's money. not so, says the paper. they say there's no evidence that the fed did a detailed examination. that the fed arguments on legal authority were "incorrect"incor they took more risks. they said, politics, not finances, doomed lehman. the paper says the fedex plan nations rested on flawed economic and legal reasonings and dubious factual claims. cnbc contacted paulson, bernanke, and geithner. he said, i quote, ben bernanke and i tried to work as a team and prev

from washington, first on cnbc, chief economist and author of the report at the imm, we' imf, and steve liesmanas well. i noted the day before the referendum, you were prepared to upgrade your global growth forecast for 2016 and 2017, but brexit, you say, has thrown a panner in t spanner in the works. are you surprised stocks are at higher levels than they were before brexit? >> well, the brexit effects are going to play out over a long period of many months as the eu 27 and the uk renegotiate a new agreement. so, you know, i think one is always surprised by what stock markets do, but they're also responding to other things, for example, the prospect that central banks maintain interest rates lower for longer as a result of the brexit vote. i think based on the data we have, it's just too early to tell how this will play out. >> what are you worried about specifically when it comes to the global spillover? because when you talk to economists ahead of the vote, the big worry was a seizure in financial markets more sort of disruption in financial market conditions, which, as i mentioned, we haven

steve liesman watched the entire speech, so, steve, what's the real read on the economy versus what we heard from donald trump last night? >> right. well, there is to put it mildly some space let's put it between the bleak picture of the economy laid out last night by the fiery donald trump. and view of most economists differences range from the macro, that's the overall picture of a decrepe id economy. >> our trade deficit in goods reached nearly, think of this, our trade deficit is $800 billion. think of that. $800 billion last year alone. we're going to fix that. >> and this is a great example because donald trump is nearly exactly right on this number. it's not $800 billion. the correct number is $762 billion. but notice he said the trade deficit for goods. that of course ignores the $262 billion trade surplus the u.s. enjoys in services, which is the way most economists look at it. taken together -- >> so net is what? >> $500 billion in 2015. you can see $261 billion. and the worst year we ever had which was 2006, another way economist look at percentage of gdp, 70 basis points be

. >> steve liesman will join us with a recap, steve. there is more on tap still.now, is there a clear message that is coming out here? >> yeah. take the summer off. and an economy growing modestly. inflation under control. nothing in the economic from the feds, 12 districts suggesting any imminent need. and we have to talk about that in a minute. here is what the beige book said. employment growth is modest. consumer spending generally positive. but as was pointed out there are some sides are softening there. price pressure slight, slight i say, that's a big word there, over at jeffries, saying the public speech in recent weeks preaching in global financial markets and beige book is consistent with that approach. we are hay way through a week of 14 speeches so far the impression is the central bank doesn't appear to be in any hurry to hike rates or push back against the market view that rate debate is on hold for at left a couple months. here is some stuff said. robert cap lin says the fed will remain accommodative as long as dual mandates are met. the fed could b

let's now get reaction to the beige book with steve liesman and diane swonk joining us, founder and ceof ds economics. steve, modestly positive a fair assessment based on what hampton said? >> two ways to dissect this. the first is try to put a number on what this means about gdp. to me this is right in line with the 2% gdp. we've had no reason to think the economy is accelerating or decelerating based on the anecdotes collected. what does it mean for fed policy? it seems to me even a little more dovish when it talks about wage pressure being relatively modest, to add some stuff in the prior one about some wage hikes out there. i'm not seeing that or hearing that in the detail that reported or wires. i'll have to dig more into the details. but, again, what we had we had 7 of 14 fed speeches so far this week. we're at the halfway point on fedapalooza and the story is we're not seeing any change, take the summer off, reconsider in the fall. >> diane, do you agree? >> absolutely. i think this is a more modest and i do agree with steve more dovish report than i expected especially on the wa

steve liesman is here with the results of a cnbc fed survey, steve. >> yeah, tyler, it's very important it seems like brexit is so far in the past right now, it is certainly animating the attitude of our response to our cnbc fed survey about the federal reserve and current policy. take a look here at we asked the question in the next 12 months what's the probability of recession, 55.1% for the united kingdom was the average among 43 respondents. that's very high. 38% for the european union. just 22% for the u.s. and i want you to think about the next couple slides in context of what amounts to essentially a free ride for the u.s. all right, now, take a look at this one the likelihood of other countries leaving the eu because of brexit, 73% say it increases the chance. so that's a possibility that it could hurt the european union. but what about the overall effect on the economy? we've been using this scale of 0 to 10 for quite a while, i want to show you what happens here in the next screen -- do we have the next screen? yes, we do. well done, guys. just 2.8, this barely registers among

steve liesman made it clear. the fed is off the charts. the earliest we'll start discussing any rate hike will be the fall. then we have the election. forget that. the earliest is december. to my mind it's been pushed to 2017. there's a base under here. there's a floor under here. it's going to be hard for the market to correct. >> let me go back to rick for a second here. if i heard you correctly, the ten year, our treasury yields may continue lower not because of what's going on fundamentally here in the united states but it's more they're reacting to these negative rates globally right now. they're sort of being held hostage right there, right? >> absolutely. it's like being a mud rutt. the tires just don't want to come out. i see the course remaining as it is. and, you know, there's kind of dividend rapture going on in stocks. i mean, you're all the efforts on stocks. alls i hear about is traders talking about i need to own these stocks to get a yield, treasury yield. >> exactly. exactly. >> but you know what, that tends to give the st

that's why we have steve liesman. >> what do we think of replacing santelli on the bond report. >> rick is gone for a week and you're just ready -- >> no, i thought dom did a great job. >> very capable of what they do. >> exactly. exactly. so this is a big week for fed speak. let me start off with what the consensus is. the consensus is that it's going to be kind of a cool summer, but perhaps a hot fall for the fed when it comes to what happens take july off -- pardon me, and they take -- and start to reconsider jobs, reconsider the data and interest rates in september, october. let's look at all the speakers we get. the question is all these guys and gals, and women, stick to the same script here? we have essther george spoke today. she spoke rates are too low. that was a headline we got from her. she didn't dissent last meeting. loretta speaks at 9:30 tonight eastern time in australia. then we have dan speaking on shadow banking but then there's jim bullard who's a voter, he's speaking as well along with kashkari and mester again. we'll see if they stick to the same script. the scene

an economy running at just above stall speed, senior economics reporter professor it says here, steve liesman here to explain what's holding us back from a robust rebound. >> whatever you want to call me, michelle, is just fine. >> during the day. >> all you ceos out there wondering why the economy is so weak, don't blame consumers, they're doing their share. it's your fault, the ceo, why we're doing so badly. this is contribution to gdp. all the yellow bars to the right of the blue bar add up to 1.2%. how did we get there? surging consumer at 2.8%, trade it's about flat. but then you look at where things like government are down unexpectedly 2% for the quarter, investment down a half a point. and inventories down much more than economists expected. so that's the business side of the equation there. the fixed invest and inventories. after revision to prior quarters announced today we have now just finished a third quarter in a row of lackluster growth averaging as michelle said just 1%, half of the weak number we thought we had which was 2%. barclays says sharp rise in household spending shou

more from steve liesman. >>> radio business public, indicated this year. 117 stations across the countrypo would raise $100 million. gasoline prices down 7 cents. average price $2.20. that's $0.54 lower than a year ago. >>> this week full of economic data and earnings, the season under way. no economic data today, but toll tomorrow look for may whole say trade followed by june import prices. fed beige book wednesday, june producer price index thursday. also on thursday, pay attention to the bank of englanded policy meeting. friday retail sales, cpi, industrial production and first look at consumer sentiment for july. in earnings we have alcoa reporting after the close today. csx and young brands on wednesday. jpmorgan and black rock out on thursday. marking the official start of earnings season. we'll hear from citi, wells fargo, u.s. bank corp. and pnc financial on friday. the jobs report was crazy on friday. 30,000 the month before, then what was it, 280. >> 287. >> we see how much flux there is in that. i'm just glad fed has the same amount and raise same amount of variability. >> we

ordered as the reason why we can take recession off the table and i do think when i listen to steve liesmanhe fed doesn't do anything or do anything too negati negative, meaning the economy is too low, and negative scenario for the bulls. >> if gas is too cheap for consumers, why aren't they buying as many hamburgers from mcdonalds? >> there isn't a single thing in this country directed to gasoli gasoline. >> what do you make of the comps in mcdonalds? >> there's a lot of hype in the last -- in the last i'd say six weeks we got word these numbers weren't going to be that good. stocks went up on pokÈmon japan. as a peak restaurant we have two different restaurants. i don't know, i think that's a very hard call. this calls for recession. in a recession you eat more burgers at mcdonalds. the last quarter was not sustainable and that's what we're finding out now. >> yeah, i don't know why, i eat there. that's not me. that's not what happened in those comps, jim. any way, thanks, pal. we'll see you. >>> coming up this morning stocks to watch and then in the next hour don't miss the ceo of utx, g

love -- >> no, i actually -- >> you were hanging on every word of liesman's six minute report -- >> i always hang on every word's of steve's tepid growth and that is an issue. you're right, i actually have some sympathy for you, joe, because we're tired about talking about rate hikes when it's not going to happen for a while. i think the fed is sidelined until the end of the year. there's a lot of reasons for that. i think the domestic economy has checked the boxes but the reality is they are still hedging downside risks and this report suggests maybe we should. consumer is doing well, they snap back into the second quarter but where's business? and at the end of the day, you've got to have both of them coming together. they are worried about productivity growth and talking about business and investment falling short and transit tri problem. the research i've done, this goes back to before the crisis. we've fallen short on profit share relative to investment as a share of gdp since 2006. we really not been putting much into our future for a long time now. >> diane, as far as the regional feds go, what makes the atlanta fed