. >> thank you very much, steve liesman. >>> we've got smartphones, smart tvs, smart cars, what about smart trucks? morgan brennan live in dallas at the great american trucking show with the preview. morgan. >> reporter: hey, michelle. that's right. so we've got new technologies coming in to big rigs like this one all the way down to the engines. this is an x-15 from cummins. we're going to go inside the truck of the future when "power lunch" returns. ay azing is movg li one. real is an al rescue.is closos amg otwenty-seven thousand othem there's only onece whe re and azingive.

and also steve liesman. and also tyler matheson. i'm a steve forbes -- i always have been.e, i would abolish the corporate tax altogether. it's a silly tax. and i would just have a nice flat tax rate with no exemptions and deductions. somewhere in the neighborhood of 20%, 21%, where actually studies have said it works out. we don't need a corporate tax. let everything else be taxed at the same. >> we're going to try to squeeze in a break before ms. clinton comes in. >> once you go down the rabbit hole, there's no going back when it comes to providing certain deductions. and if you have a concept of taxes being progressive. once you go down that and you start to differentiate between the mobility of capital, which you then tax at a lower rate, and the immobility of labor, that's when you get into a place where you start to say, you know what? i need to tax these. >> i'm going to think about that. >> it doesn't make it right. but it's once you start going -- >> that was a densely packed thought. >> you told me to be quick. >> you have gotten off the beaten path. we need to co

he, of course, is steve liesman. we know, steve, that this is being billed as donald trump laying out his economic vision, parts of the plan have already been put forward. it's a chance for him, obviously, to change the narrative of what has been a rough campaign over the last week or so, but some have already viewed this plan and have come back with what it will ultimately mean for the economy, including mark zandi. >> i want to start with your overall assessment, which is vision. i think wall street is ready to go beyond vision. i think wall street is ready for numbers. we don't have the numbers. what we have has been dissatisfying. we have both the tax foundation and zandi from moodys.com, assessing the cost this at $10 trillion. they come to two different conclusions about the benefits. zandi says recession is the result of this plan. tax foundation says more growth, more jobs, still a very large deficit. and part of the difference in the conclusion las to do with the lack of numbers and specificity. we don't know

steve liesman looks at the latest economic puzzle. >> reporter: when it comes to the economy e days wee a split decision. [ bell ringing ] in one corner weak growth. in the other the fed struggling to find out which is better. job growth weighs in well above average at just 1%. economic growth is a full fledged weakling, a point below average. economists are betting on jobs. >> what can we measure better, the number of people working or the entire u.s. economy on a quarterly basis? the money has to be on the labor market being the right signal. >> one way to deal with the split is to call a tie. >> the gdp was one. the employment number suggests something like three. the truth is in the middle. >> what does it mean for stocks? more jobs and less growth suggests companies may be less profitable but consumers richer which could be okay for equities. >> that won't give us double digit stock market but four to six percent, points for dividend. 6 to 8 over the next five years or so. that would be fine. >> reporter: if the split decision is wrong it would be a policy 'tis mist take. the fed

for "nightly business report, i'm steve liesman in jackson hole. >>> still ahead, donald trump is not spending nearly as much as hillary clinton on tv ads, and the broadcast industry is taking notice. >>> ride hailing service uber reportedly lost $1 billion in the first half of the year as first reported by bloomberg. uber's losses mounted in the second quarter, including the u.s. where it had turned a profit during the first three months of 2016. >> sears borrows $300 million from its chief executive edward lampert and that's where we begin tonight's market focus. the retailer is accepting the funds from the ceo's hedge fund and follows another quality earl loss and declining sales. the company cited weak demand for home appliances and lower sales in its kmart-brand stores. sears has posted annual losses in each of its past six fiscal years. shares today down 4% at $14.07. and dollar general reported its weakest sales in a deck you had a. lower food prices, growing competition and a drop in food stamp coverage hurt the discount retailer's results. shares of dollar general plunged 17%

steves liesman joins us from wyoming with the highlights. steve? >> reporter: yeah, hi, kelly. fed chair janet yellen pretty clear at the fed's annual jackson hole retreat that rates likely rise soon. she wasn't entirely clear about when. she said, quote, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, i believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. the market kind of rallied on that. today's gdp report showed sluggish growth just above 1% and stan fischer said he dismissed it as a back-looking measure. >> we want to be looking ahead making this decision. not back. we're reasonably close to what is thought of as full employment. and inflation right this year is higher than last year's. it's still not up to 2%. it's been growing so you ask what are the big numbers we look at that? they're better than they have been for sometime. >> reporter: and so maybe the one that got the market's attention when asked if investors should prefair for a september hike and maybe t

. >>> let's bring in steve liesman on this. what is the deviation between what trump is saying and what the consensus economists believes the impact could be? >> before he changed the tax number, it was about a $10 trillion gap in the expectations -- >> they expanded the deficit by 10 trillion over ten years. >> this moved from 25 to 33. my guess is all of these places are now costing it out, but they have to add in the cost of infrastructure, which donald trump has said he was going to double it. it looked like he backed off that a little bit, in terms of talking about building roads and bridges but also the expense or the cost of the childcare that he's talking about, that would be added to it. and i don't know that public is going to vote on deficits this time around. certainly the democrats don't have a lot of leg to stand on. obama would add a lot of the deficit was created by the downturn, but certainly they have a large exception and whether that matters to the public, what the economists are saying it adds 10 trillion.

steve liesman, of course, in jackson hole. steve said, we're going to be looking for color and character here. after bullard today, george today, kaplan, dudley, does she back up any of this notion that september, december is live so to speak? >> i think the betting is she will definitely echo the sense that the economy has come a long way, you can't declare victory but we are close to our goals, but i think the punch line that comes after that is what's not really known. in other words does that mean your pea in a hurry -- mean you're in a hurry to get to the next rate increase or where there's this period that there isn't much urgency to get there. the markets are in a neutral going into this. she's hawkish and the dollar surge but everything is right in the middle of its range. >> why there's so much anticipation because it's been such a cat la list-free, directionless kind of market in light trading there's a lot of hype around the speech and when you go through the economist notes they say, don't expect any meaningful det

let's get back to steve liesman in jackson hole, who is joined by another special guest. steve? thanks very much. i'm here with cleveland fed president, horrloretta mester. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> another weak gdp number, 0.1%. the second half was kind of weak. do you have -- or the first half was kind of weak, do you think the second half will show a rebound? >> i think we'll have some strengthening in the second half. i think the economy's on a good track. i think the employment numbers show that. i think the inflation numbers are coming up with, slowly. they're below our target still, but moving in the right direction. >> what do you have dialed in for the full year? we talked to somebody yesterday who thought, well, they had a 2% forecast for the year. they would have to do 3 in the back half. >> i think that's reasonable. it's going to be hard to perhaps get to 2, even 3. but i think that's not an unreasonable forecast. >> to do 3% in the second half of the year? >> i think we can do that. >> you say that so nonchalantly. that's a big number? >> w

for "nightly business report", i'm steve liesman, jackson hole. >> more on the gross domestic product report steve just mentioned. overall, economic growth for the second quarter was trimmed to just a bit more th 1s r for a s straight quarter. the report also showed that personal consumption rebounded, but that business investment remained soft. s are not feeling as op a gauge of consumer sentiment posted a third deline. the index fe to its lowest level since april. it had been supported by hiring, interest rates and declining gas prices. gas pat of oil, which has gained 10% during the past month, but weather crude continues to make gains depe worl ja can ki takes a look at th fl. >> the recent move higher come frs the there may be tha fact.straint, iraqi production is more than 4 million barrels a day and slowly increasing. around production is more than 3 million barrels and close to presanctioned peeks. libya producing about 300,000 barrel. production is about a million and a half barrels a day. venezuela could be the biggest wild c it's producing over 2 mil bashs a day but could s

steve liesman is in jackson hole, wyoming. steve. >> reporter: hey, melissa.ere with two luminaries from the meeting, susan collins, she's a university of michigan dean of the forward school of public policy. and cardiogrmen rhinehart. tell us what you heard janet yellen say today? >> sure. i heard four key thigpengs say m quickly. one is she reiterated that the evidence has strengthened the case for an increase at some point in the future. she also said that the increase in the federal funds rate is going to be really gradual. and she highlighted that it's going in the long term to a lower rate than had been true historically. more like 3%. she also was really careful not to give any precise information about the timing. and that's very consistent with the message that the fed funds leaders have given in recent months. >> carmen, do you hear all that and agree with -- but the question i want to ask you is do you also see a rate hike coming in the next several months? >> i think so. i think the takeaway was that a rate hike is in the making. specificity was no

m steve liesman. sfl some of those cloud may be the democratic presidential nominee is coming under increased scrutiny for her ties to the clinton found and new e-mails are raising more questions about the possible combin. amon, good to see you. what do d where does the story go from this point? >> well, the question here is e able to buy access to secretary of state hillary clinton while she was secretary of state. that's what the critics are charging and so, the problem for the clinton campaign going into the fall election cycle is that there's a whole series of data of groups that are investigating this scandal including judicial watch, a conservativegroup, citizens united. these are no friends to hillary clinton and also, you've got the state department's own internal those are going to be which dump data out there for the public to see as they did this so, so basically, all the way into october the clin campaig is going to be wresg with new disclosures over e-mail, each of which is going to set o

steve liesman is on the ground where it all took place in jackson hole, wyoming. steve, she? >> well, she was clear i thought this her keynote speech here at the meeting that rates will likely rise soon. here's from the speech quote in light of continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, i believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. that means it's coming, but was unclear about when the fed might hike, but later, i asked the vice chair, sfan fisher, if a rate hike was possible in september and maybe one this year. >> i think what the chair said today was consistent with answering yes to both of your questions, but these are not things we know until we see the data. people people get upset about ut saying we're data driven and i see criticisms of data driven. i don't know what the alternative is to a coin? >> so, his comments prompted reversal in stocks. based his outlook to improve in the second half of the year. several officials think first half growth could rise to ab

cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman is on the ground with what is sure to be a very big day for the fed and for the market. steve? >> reporter: yeah. melissa, good to put it in context. for the past several years the fed meeting in jackson hole has taken place amidst a crisis, the financial crisis and the fear that the european union would break up. >> labor slack is coming out of the labor market. we're making frustratingly slow progress and the some progress on inflation, and i think that gdp growth in the second half of the year will be stronger because the consumer is strong, and even the second quarter gdp number was disappointing, because of a inventory number and final demand was strong and i think the case is strengthening. i'm not going to speculate on which meeting. >> reporter: so there's still plenty that the fed is worried b.u.s. and global growth. been sluggish. inflation below the 2% target and the fed's framework for deciding on rates, that's the topic of the meeting. it's the subject of some pointed criticism, including a report in the "wall street journal."

steve liesman is there. steve? >> reporter: thank you very much. it's worth remembering for several years the fed's annual meeting in jackson hole amid crisis. the great financial crisis. the fiscal cliff and fears of the european union to break up to name just a few. as marks await that big speech tomorrow, the debate is more about whether the fed can once again raise interest rates. >> labor slack is coming out of the labor market. we're making frustratingly slow progress ian some progress on inflation and i think that gdp growth in the second half of the year will be stronger because the consumer is strong and even the second quarter gdp number disappointing was disappointing because of an inventory adjustment but final demand was, in fact, strong. so, yeah, i think the case is strengthening. i'm not going to speculate on which meeting. >> reporter: now, there's still plenty of reason for worry. u.s. and global growth is sluggish, inflation below the 2% target and the frame work for deciding on rates, the topic of the meeting, it is a point of c

steve liesman looks at the fed's timetable on interest rate hikes and bob pisani with the reaction today. steve, pretty impressive report. >> it is. it's a blowout jobs report and shows the job market in all the important dynamics to be improving. first job growth with broad based. leisure, hospital, services, even some manufacturing and construction. wages up a helly 0.3%. 2.6 year over year. 400,000 americans returning to the workforce. they found jobs. that's why the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. hours worked were revised higher and the revisions. now, what happens here is that kind of job growth raises the immediate question about whether or not the fed will come into the situation here. september, not showing much at all but december is definitely on the table for some folks especially after this report. a couple of reasons why that's the case. first, september is a little bit too soon. low oil prices weighing on inflation and moving the target lower. second, strong job growth. gdp is substantially weaker than the job growth would suggest and central banks, europe and jap

that's steve liesman. >> 0.82%. >> our chief economics correspondent.g to start with you. what do you make of this move by the president of mexico to invite donald trump? >> i think it's a very risky but very beneficial move by president pena. frankly, i think that president pena has a lot to gain from this. it is unthinkable that a leader from mexico, a leader from the united states does not have a dialogue. totally unthinkable. this is an opportunity for president pena nieto to rise above and show his leadership. and so i think, you know, he enters this with 24% popularity. >> incredibly low in mexico. >> incredibly low in mexico. and frankly, yes, mexicans are mad about this. but he can come out of this if he has some way to impress upon candidate trump, you know, some new facts, some new figures about the economic relationship. >> back it up a little bit, susan, i'm not as bright as everybody else at this desk. i'll ask the dumb question which is why in the hell would he invite donald trump down there in the first place? what does he have to gain fr

erin gibbs from s and p capital and our very own steve liesman.ares, nike announcing it is exiting its golf equipment business. that includes balls, clubs, and bags. the company says it's going to instead focus on innovation in golf shoes and clothing which it will continue to make. it won't be selling the business and nike folks tell me that nike stores and dotcom and wholesale partners will sell the remaining golf equipment. golf is still strong for some retailers. adidas reporting this morning solid results, raising 2016 guidance for a fourth time thanks to, in part, better margins and sales in its own golf business are the one it's trying to sell, double-digit growth rate guys at taylor made brand, but that doesn't really speaks to the broader trend here which is that golf is declining and the u.s. is half of the global golf market and it has seen declining participation. >> go back to when nike got in the golf equipment business that was the peak of this idea that the golf market was broadening out and going to be a lot more people participat

he, of course, is steve liesman. w, steve, that this is being billed as donald trump laying out his economic vision, parts of the plan have already been put forward. it's a chance for him,

. >>> steve liesman has a look at the household dead report, which shows a somewhat more optimistic look this is interesting stuff, kayla. what we have is new foreclosures dropping to an 18-year low. you remember last month there was some data that suggested the consumer indebtedness and delinquencies were right, excess this shows the percent of all current loans is highest since 2006. the delinquency rate must be going down, and it did. now bankruptcies did spike up 8.5%, except for some reason that always seems to happen in the second quarter, so not expire slid clear that's an issue to be worried right now of the mortgage debt falling $7 billion to $8 trillion. household dead increased very slight 0.3% student load debt, which has been rising sharply, was roughly flat. kayla, i think the issue is if these delinquency rates and foreclosure rates are so far down, how good is the banking system doing? are there issues of reg lease? on. >> yeah, more questions being asked about credit quality. our thanks to you. >>> coming up, the future of netflix from the man who was there at the beginn

our steve liesman is there and he has results of the new fed survey on the economy. tello, steve. >> hey, michael. yeah, we are setting the base for what kind of economic outlook, at least 39 respondent on the fed survey are looking for and can you see there's been a drop at least for this year that weak first half we've had in measured gdp. now we look for 1.8%. that's below 2% again for the year for 2016. now again they are hoping that next year it accelerates above 2%. 2 1/4 is what they are looking for. that's unchanged from the prior survey. and tick down a little bit and this is probability of recession in the next 12 months. ticking down to 21.6 and 22 pretty much unchanged. it had been elevated earlier this year with concerns about china and global recession. but you can see their remains elevated for the uk and for the eu and it comes off a little bit. still, uk, eu, troubles with post brexit and economic weakness that makes economic weakness the number one threat to the u.s. economy. that's chosen by 31% of our respondent's followed by taxes at 19% protectio

courtney reagan wraps it up and steve liesman with the new data of this morning.et's start with courtney. >> jcpenney is getting there and still a long way to go. the retailer posting a loss and both smaller than expected and a fraction of last year's loss. sales a little light and comparable sales still positive. remember, it's rebuilding back those big plunges we saw under the former ceo's failed transformation and then the reversal and reiterating full-year guidance. they like the strength driven by regular priced selling at jcpenney. margins, though, only improving 10 basis points. updates to the center core where the accessories are sold and home of the appliance rollout strong points and each expected to further take hold in the second half of the year. if i play teacher and give a report card for a minute, yc penny, ralph lauren, macy's, kohl's, nordstrom, rewarded. coach did beat on profit and shares are down for the week. kors and wayfair, in the back of the class for the week. sara, back to you. >> hang on. we'll talk more in a minute but we want the lat

steve liesman bringing all of this from jackson hole, and we'd love your thoughts how we capped this steve. >> i feel like i'm covering the olympics. one guy here. you know, we have our -- our track and field and the other stuff, gymnastics. just had stan fischer who talked about the economy strengthening, and i think that's pretty important in terms of where rates are going. listen to this and then talk about the rate implications. >> we've had very strong hiring reports in the last three months. on average, as the chair said, 190,000, high as a month. we have another one of those reports coming out next friday. and we'll probably weigh in our decision along with other data that may come in. so i think the evidence is that the economy has strengthened. the problem with this economy is there are so many numbers every day. >> so what you have is, you have fischer suggesting, hey, the jobs report that's coming out in september for august is going to be very important and weigh in on their decision-making for the september meeting, and i think between fischer and yellen's comment she be

steve liesman. >>> and our thanks to tim seymour, as well.e of him playing water polo at 5:00 p.m. this evening. >> i'm very good at this. >> thank you, tim. >>> when we come back, walmart buying jet.com for $3 billion. but will this move be able to help walmart take on amazon as the fastest growing online retailer? two top retail experts weigh in next. >>> also, republican presidential candidate donald trump unveiled the economic plan. that would cut taxes and curb regulations. how that could affect the economy an our national debt, still to come on "closing bell." ♪ mapping the oceans. where we explore. protecting biodiversity. everywhere we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural gas. my job? my job at exxonmobil? turning algae into biofuels. reducing energy poverty in the developing world. making cars go further with less. fueling the global economy. and you thought we just made the gas. ♪ energy lives here. >>> so as you probably have heard, walmart is buying jet.com for little over $3

lou steve liesman is joined by a special guest. emember yesterday we had clouds on the tetons and take a look now, it's gorgeous tetons in the background. i think you will see more in a second. introduce my guest here, dallas fed president robert kaplan. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, steve. >> let me begin with our fed survey, which shows that 60% of our respondents say i mean, basically the fed is making it up. they don't think there's a framework, 47 to 37, they say, the fed is going from the latest economic data. not going on the medium term forecast. is that the right way to think about it? >> are you making it up? >> of course not. part of the challenge fed is adjusting to that and what's happening is, is a lot as many have said, the neutral rate which sounds a little wonky but the natural rate of interest has been declining and a period of transition where the fed is adjusting to that and i think our job is to communicate much better than we do. how we're thinking about the economy and why we do what we do? >> that all may

so of course our own steve liesman is there. en looking at the results of the latest cnbc fed survey and i understand you are seeing a response that has never happened before when it comes to an election. >> yeah, that's right, michelle. things were getting strange and now our cnbc fed survey shows that our 39 respondents believe it's best for the economy if a democrat, aka hillary clinton, wins the election. if you look at the chart, clinton now leads on best for the economy 47 to 37 among the economists, fund managers and strategists who responded. and when you look back at the history, we've been asking this question since march, the republican has led by 20 points in general. so a huge reversal. then we ask who's got the best policies for the economy. it's a little bit closer there, but you can see clinton has made tremendous strides. this coming of course after that disastrous week that donald trump had in which even many republicans were critical of his remarks. and that seemed to have turned the tide among some of these wa

let's get to steve liesman for that. >> melissa, thank you. chicago fed president charlie evans says one rate hike could be appropriate this year. he doesn't love the idea of it but said it could be appropriate. he really wants inflation to be closer to the fed's target before hiking. what's the importance of this? well, other fed officials in recent days have been speaking about just one hike this year suggesting the fed could be backing off once again from its projections coming back towards where the market is as measured by the cnbc fed survey. the fed's own forecast in june showed the average fed official looking for just -- looking for two hikes this year. that was before brexit and the recent disappointing gdp data. one hike this year looks to be the fed flavor of the month. on growth, charlie evans said, quote, u.s. fundamentals continue to be strong, labor market is displaying resilience and second quarter inventory decline was likely transitory, so he could see strong q-3 growth. more on that in a second. he was disappointed that cap

our question sort of is, what if that dividend growth stagnates and senior economics reporter steve liesman has done a lot of work on that question since we saw business spending, capex fall in friday's good p report. we know oil. well documented. what else are you looking at to try to get clues to this very question we're asking? >> this is not a new phenomenon. these quarters in a row capex declined in the gdp account. whacked off a point out of. 1.2. would have been a 1.7. oil, scott said, the big one. that, by the way, affects the other areas to the right. those not quite effective. computers flat to nothing. that's a price adjustment. price to computers fall. adjust prices, still falling. manufacturing down 7%. inventories, this is an interesting question. some people see this as a lack of confidence on the part of companies with the consumer have to take the stuff off the shelves, or something that building inventories is growth in our future. transportation down 3.1%. we have a lot of data coming up this week and one of the things if companies are cutting back on capex, the dividend

talked to steve liesman about the significance of jackson hole.ave the personal belief they should go in september. all of the evidence is there for them to go from an economic standpoint to an actual asset pressing standpoint which to me is the most important thing. and they overcame the fears of brexit. they should go in september. >> i don't believe the market believes that they will. >> it doesn't. >> and even december odds are too low. >> so what happens when janet yellen what is it? next week? what if she lays the groundwork and -- telegraphs it's going to happen and the market's caught offsides? >> i think dovish. but you need a couple more econ points, particularly another jobs report. because that last jobs report was so good, i think people are wondering if maybe there's some momentum there. >> let's play what i think, what if, what if she's not dovish? >> okay, then the banks rallied. and the market can probably rally if you can get the banks and to your point on energy new groups leading this market you can actually see -- >> knee jerk

. >> steve liesman. three trades on three stocks making news today.t fitness posting strong quarterly results. jimmy? >> a good ipo. stock done well. a lot of momentum. earnings supporting it. i think if you're a momentum player a stock you want to own, on a valuation basis, a little pricey. your a value investor probably not going to own it. >> josh, i don't remember off the top of my head where nvidia was two weeks or so ago. >> 57. >> at 57. >> or 56 and change, and he nailed it. >> okay. >> you hadn't -- originally bought the stock. you liked it. liked it on the show. >> yeah. >> now you've bought the stock as of a week or so ago. >> i bought tattle after, a few days after talking about it and staying with it. here's what i think is important about nvidia. without repeating what i said originally, jut the general gist of the stock is it's a semiconductor company that is levered to every single major secular growth trend within technology. wireless and pc are the past. the futch sir going to be things like virtual reality, augmented reality, automa

. >> i don't want to go back to ang steve liesman marketplace. >> the most profitable hour of the day all i get to do is tweet about the show. this is like the greatest moment of my life. weekdays at noon eastern. >>> welcome back to "halftime report." i'm jackie deangelis with the futures now traders talking a little bit of oil today, gentlemen. slightly lower today after we heard from the department of energy that weekly production rose by the largest increase we've seen since may of 2015. bob, last week you told me you thought over $46 there was a resistance there. that's exactly what happened. where do we go from here? >> well, i think now you move a little bit sideways before the next move down. the unfortunate thing for people who want to be long oil right now is you're relying on opec and opec only. we saw a draw and a draw this week, and the refineries going into turnaround, going into the end of the summer driving season are going to be much less likely to refill those stockpiles in gasoline which are at record highs anyway. >> brian, how are you looking at the oil trade righ

steve liesman talked about earlier this morning.ade programs, reducing our trade deficit, holding people accountable for trade cheating. we negotiate agreements which can be done. all these things are going to add to the economic strength. regulatory reform. put a moratorium on regulations. regulations -- excess regulations costing this economy $2 trillion a year. that is going to provide a big economic kick by getting rid of a lot of those regulations not necessarily harming the economy. >> obviously regulatory overload has been an issue a lot of people on both sides of the aisle have pointed to as being a real reason for that. when we had larry kudlow on our show friday he seemed to indicate we'd be hearing a lot of specifics in the speech today that would make us understand how this would be paid for. what i'm hearing from you some of the specifics might include freezing regulation. do you expect to have other pay fors that will offset it or is this simply the growth you expect to come in and savings from less regulatory oversigh

steve liesman here to tell us what is driving that lower productivity. steve. >> not a good number. we have never had three quarters of productivity decline outside of recession. last two times, 1974 and 1979. not years you want to emulate. but ubs doesn't think it reflects a coming recession and the economy will continue to grow and not everyone is so sure. over at deutsch bank, they say it corroborates the worst fears and that's for sluggish growth and bad job growth in the coming months. morgan stanley says as bad as expectations are, q2 managed significantly disapoint looking for half-point increase and ended up with 0.4% decline. here's jim paul sen thinking the data could be bad. points out that real wages are rising. if accurate, suggests companies constantly paying up for a resource delivering sub par performance. either wages are overstated or producktivety is overstated. having trouble measuring and some are panicking and others are dismissing it not backed up by other data. the alternative explanation to paul sen's is that growth is lower and bernanke talked about that a

and steve liesman is there. hi, steve. >> tyler, thanks very much.here with the chairman of jp morgan international, former governor of the bank of israel, and not such an old man, but a man that's been coming here for 31 years. so the man i can put the question to, jacob. we're meeting here, a little bit less sense of crisis than the past several years. now it seems like the question is this. should the fed be raising rates, and how quickly should it be doing it? what would you be advising janet? >> well, indeed, there is less of a sense of crisis. but we should be aware there are some that are building up and one should be very careful about keeping the situation where the fed is the only game in town. there are a lot of things to do in the structural area and the fiscal area. what would i advise janet to do? first of all, it is the federal market open committee, so it's not a single person decision. but i think that by and large, i would -- i don't normally give advice to central bankers, being a former central banker myself. but i believe that it

steve liesman and dd roy are here with us. start it off here with steve. >> thanks. we call this surprisingly aggressive package of post-brexit stimulus from the bank of england, and it's reverberating in currency, bond, and stock markets along with here in the u.s. here's what they did. they cut rates by 25 base points. that was expected. it's those additional qe purchases, 60 billion pounds of regular qe, and a newfangled qe. 10 billion plus of corporate bond purchases. and suggesting further rate cuts ahead. take a look at what it did to its outlook, even despite this new change here. cutting 2017 growth down by five ticks there. that 0.8%. expecting somewhat higher inflation, or higher unemployment. what it means for the u.s., it removes the downside risk that could have come if the boe had not acted and that could have raised concerns about a much weaker economy in the uk. it's also the reason for the fed not to act as the dollar is already stronger against the pounds and there are limits to i think how far the fed is going to go away from other central banks. t

steve liesman is live in jackson hole already and has more on that. hello, steve. >> hey, mike.net yellen's speech on friday. we'll have several interviews with fed officials that i'll talk about in a minute. and our cnbc fed survey showing that the market believes the fed will act later than they had previously. this is the cnbc fed survey special jackson hole edition. now let's look at where they think the market will be. and you need to think about this in two ways. the first when you look at where we are right now, on the s&p, seen rising a little bit for the rest of the year, less than about a half a percentage point and then maybe another 4% through 2017. so not a lot of upside viewed by our 39 respondents to our survey in august. but then look at it, it all occurs in a context of low interest rates. the 10-year yield seen rising to 176. call that about 20 bit from where we are right now and 226 in 2017. so interest rates stay down, stocks stay high but don't rise much further. art hogan from august says the market has crossed the rubicon and ready for rate normalization.

i think as steve liesman said, you know, it is friday, if you see that good number, you're going to see the dollar probably rally. i know that reslaipg, inverse correlation on-again, off-again. but you will see energy smacked around a little bit. see the commodity base smacked around a little bit if that number comes in good, it's not giving them much cover. they are going to have to be forced to say something at the september meeting and i think they will race. >> you know, rick, focus on what happens post labor day. closing up the month here and pretty much ending the summer. we haven't talked as much about credit market and how strong they've been but should we expect that to continue and support equity markets even if they are fully val iued, after e break? >> i like the words he chose especially. notice when he talked about rates he used the word "belong." what he is saying in my opinion is that if the fed isn't raising then economy is obviously an average economy, average growth. i think that the rest of the market, that doesn't necessarily get all of its marching order from the f

steve liesman joins us now. lots of data. >> and i want to fold in this issue that melissa began with, it's actually brian's pet story which is the impact of oil and lower oil prices on the economy. first though as tyler said good news from the consumer this morning. june consumer spending rising 0.3%. solid gains and durable,s, nondurables and service as well. ticked down a couple it's the third decline in a row and two questions about this. either consumers run up their savings too high, weren't happy with that 6.2%, or they're meeting spending needs from savings. that's more ominous. while business spending has been contracting, it has been the consumer powering growth and the question this friday for big jobs numbers whether consumers will continue to have those jobs and that income to underpin their spending ways. gas prices are falling. that's good. but that means fallout in cap x and jobs from the oil patch where oil and gas extractions jobs they are down, folks, 10% compared to a year ago. and accelerati

steve liesman has the numbers. >> i want to talk about the auto industry in general and get to the notionjust detroit but also michigan here, brian. let's take a look at what happened and give some data for both sides in this argument over nafta. nafta about '94, you can see auto employment in the u.s. continued to increase for many years after nafta. and then it came down after the 2000-2001 recession, that was the precipitating event there. what that was was partially increasing automation, increasing -- something hit detroit very hard but also rising preference for foreign made autos. that came down and you can see here that despite this terrible situation here in the united states, auto workers have gained jobs over the last several years since the recession comeback. now the other side of the story, look at auto sales. it kind of checks, but watch this break right here where vehicle sales and auto workers where it gets above it so we're not employing as many as we should. again, look here. you've had this big bounceback in sales, but not as big a bounceback in auto workers. certainly

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steve liesman joining us with more on what we can expect as we just noted -- you were fist pumping.u excited. >> been kind of slow. all about earnings and politics. who wants to cover politics. you were right to read dudley without appropriate skepticism. they might do it this year if the economy improves significantly. he's raised the bar there. question of the week, will 177,000 jobs and a 4.8% unemployment be enough to calm fears after the disappointing 1.2% gdp report. coming in at half what the street was looking for. forget rail hikes and the worry now is about whether recession is ahead and some people sailed that. the big story capital spending. what's happening with business? it's now down three quarters in a row, negative that is, part of it is the decline in oil field summer and some are blaming broader uncertainties around brexit, the recent decline in earnings and the overall regulatory environment. great op-ed in the "wall street journal." new york fed president bill dudley saying in indonesia business investors will likely, quote, remain soft as profits have stagnated