steve liesman joins us now. chicago with some of the expectations and a look ahead to the job market in 2017. steve? >> good morning, andrew. and congratulations. i haven't had a chance to talk to you since the birth of the addition to the sorkin family. >> thank you, thank you. >> december jobs report, big one on tap today. always extra attention paid. looking for 183,000. unchanged, really, from the 178 we got in the prior month. unemployment rate essentially unchanged. the wages number could do a little better than the expectation and the hope. 0.3% is what's being looked for after a 0.1% decline. inside this thing, we want to know how much christmas hiring there was. was weather a factor. some economists seem to think so. that will be among them. it's also a good time, by the way, to look ahead to 2017. obviously a lot of economic policy changes to come. what effect will that have? here's the baseline we're looking at. in 2015 we be 229. the expectation is when we average it all out, it will be plus or minus

i'm steve liesman for "nightly business report." >> reporter: the housing market was on its hair this year. sales and construction surging ahead. but 2017 will see big changes. home sales will slow. don't get me wrong, there is plenty of demand for homes. but listings continue to drop and mortgage rates are starting to rise. younger potential buyers may want to get out of those pricey rentals. but with affordability weakening, they may just not have the means. mortgage rates will rise. mortgage rates spiked after the presidential election and the gains will continue, albeit at a more moderate pace. a potentially stronger economy and job growth are fueling the race, but will not be enough to counter the higher cost, especially for first time buyers of getting a loan. on the other hand, if the president-elect does make a big move into banking deregulation, it could get easier to get a mortgage. mortgages more expensive but more available. home prices will cool. the spike in mortgage rates has already made homes for expensive for buyers. sellers may have to come down a bit if they want t

joining us now is the afore mentioned steve liesman and diana roth, she is a senior fellow at manhattan institute and on donald trump's labor department leading team. steve, you know i have a thing for economists as you do, but it's not like many of them supported candidate donald trump it's part of the whole global elite society that he ran against so why would he appoint any to his team? >> i think you have it right there, sarah. i want to give the back drop to this. it's in chicago. it's the biggest meeting of the year, american economic association annual meeting. there's 13,000 economists there. everybody is asking each other, do you know anybody working for trump. the answer is no. they were asking me and i was asking the whole time. you're right. it's part of the anti-elitist backlash. it's business versus economist. we don't have to do this work on this, we can do it. economists have to be more careful, more pessimistic, talk about tradeoffs. i think there's concern that some of the things economists bring to the table, the understanding of tradeoffs and relationships between mo

. >> steve liesman. >> does president trump have the secret sauce to make the economy boom? cnbc took a detailed look at times of the economy has grown more than 3% trump has the ingredients about half right. first thing the economy's only growned more 3% about a third of the time since 1990 so it's pretty rare. trump's promise 4% even rarer. boom like growth requires an economy firing on all cylinders. consumer spending needs to support annual gains of 3 .r5% or better but that's not even enough. productivity has to surge. it's averaged 1% average since 2010. it averages 2.7% during the boom years but that's also not enough. business spending and e. ports have to play vital roles. these are two areas that trump has promised. >> i think a lot of what he's talking about doing speaks exactly what the economy needs. certainly corporate tax reform is going to be very important to getting business investment cranked off. businesses have been sitting and waiting to see. >> but trump's plan may be weaker in other areas. government spending also surge when the economy booms and trum

our steve liesman has been looking at why the border tax matters, why it's crucial for the economy andda, steve. >> yeah, sar rarks the border adjustment tax is really complicated. but the main thing you may need to know is this, it raises a lot of revenue. the plan endorsed by republicans would slap a 20% tax on imports and not tax exports at all. but it raises nearly a trillion dollars, maybe more, over ten years. and that's critical because it's seen as a major revenue source to help pay for a lot of other ideas that are out there like individual and corporate tax cuts along with perhaps infrastructure spending. without the money those ideas could potentially be watered down. >> if you give up the trillion dollars of revenue from this border adjustment provision, maybe the corporate rate can't come down to 20 or 25 or 15, whatever the final number will be. maybe you have to phase in expensing. you have to give up something. it's going to be a horse trade on capitol hill. >> it could be the reason why the market was ahead of itself, ken griffin from citadel said earlier this week he

. >> steve liesman is standing by. we have you on to talk about the jobs report i guess we could wrap that into that. to what degree are we hitting dow 20,000 almost because of the jobs report? >> i think it helped. lot of up and down on the stock market. look at the s&p futures. two-year yield shot straight up off the 830 number. it's a pretty solid number. revisions to november. decent numbers in december. most important thing is you had those higher wages. the market is looking for consumer spending going amid the uncertainty of what may happen when it comes to policy. you probably have a decent turn around when it comes to corporate earnings, single-most important and upside you talked about, possible upside on corporate taxes. whether or not that has an impact on the economy, it has a very strong impact on corporate earnings in and of itself, in that you reduce the tax burden paid by corporations as well as some of the import and foreign trade being talked about that ultimately could help if done right. >> this ke

. >> let's bring in steve liesman, doing a lot of reporting on this issue, to answer the question of why some republicans are so insistent or something that's so controversial. >> larry usually writes the memos but in this case he didn't get the memo. memo would have said this is a very complicated tax but the main thing we should know about this is that it raises a lot of mon money. that's why they're behind this. republicans stopped a 20% tax on imports, no tax on exports. it raises nearly $1 trillion over ten years. and that is critical because it's seen as a major revenue source to help pay for a lot of other stuff that guys like larry want, like individual and corporate tax cuts and infrastructure spending. without the money other ideas could be watered down. >> if you give up the trillion dollars of revenue from this border adjustment provision, maybe the corporate rate can't come down to 20 or 25 or 15, whatever the final number will be. maybe you have to phase in expensing. >> there's the reason why the market could be ahead of itself to the extent it's pricing in a lot of po

the old steve liesman cared about wage disparity. of your buddies have halve the world's wealth. >> my buddies? the ones who you revered. >> eight of your buddies control half the world's wealth. that's okay with you. >> don't you play golf with them? >> no, i don't think i have. >> seven of those guys you've been on the golf course with. >> the dow already on the way to its next major milestone, crossing 20,100. the index is nearing a 10% gain since the election. joining us now is president of the wells fargo investment institute. that sounds like some nonprofit. >> no, it is definitely not a nonprofit. >> okay. but it's an institute. >> it's an institute. i should be wearing a white straight jacket. >> i don't know if you're going to get to say anything. he's in charge of an institute. >> i said i want to walk off set. >> and todd gordon, founder of tradinganalysis.com. who wants to start? i don't want to mess up the trader. are we overbought? >> yes. >> we are? >> yes. you and i are going back and forth. i still like 2500 by the e

steve liesman has been poring over them. this was the day they voted to raise rates. >> they were thinking about it and they raised rates. they were talking and fretting over fiscal policy and the possibility of massive fiscal policy that could be coming in the year ahead. that would be this year, from the election of donald trump. in fact, the minutes show they were fretting over the fiscal policy and warned of the possibility of higher or tighter monetary policy, tighter rates, if there was an expansionary fiscal policy. it did see upside in growth and employment and inflation from fiscal policy, it was uncertain ultimately over the timing and the amount and makeup of those new fiscal policies that were coming. and it was a little concerned or cautious over how much the market had reacted to it. it also saw the possibility of downsides from the coming policy. they mentioned, for example, the possibility of trade barriers was one concern mentioned in the minutes of the december meeting. concern about dollar appreciation and

steve liesman is here.ou've been poring through the numbers too. >> just so everybody know, the reason why the import prices are up is because of petroleum. food, feed, and drink down, just covered up by opening up my program here. down 1.4. capital goods down 0.2. anyway, everything is negative inside the petroleum sector. jobless claims number remains relatively low. 247 was the big surprise. i think we want to get to mr. hartger from philadelphia, new philadelphia fed president, a voter this year, making se inin comments today. he sees three rate hikes this year. he thinks the economy is displaying signs of strength. he's also saying that inflation expectations are starting to rally. and he's saying that demand for labor remains strong. he sees skills shortages, but he does see inflation picking up. that's the story from the new voter, mr. harker, from philadelphia. >> we have jim bullard on the set here. the st. louis fed president. what do you think of harker's comments, talking about three rate hikes

i'm kelly evans along with scott wapner and steve liesman. becky, joe and andrew are dusting off the snow of the alps and heading to capitol hill. we'll check in with john harwood on that topic in just a couple of minutes. first let's check in on the markets. u.s. equity markets coming off of a six out of seven-day losing streak. four points off the s&p 500 there. seven off the nasdaq. let's look at how we were trading overnight in asia and europe. a lot of news coming out of davos. japan's nikkei up 1% overnight. the shanghai composite down a third. hang seng down 0.2. european equities, here's a look across the board. seeing red, that is bleeding over into our markets. the ftse 100 the worst performer, down three quarters of a percent. the german dax, relative outperformer, down 0.1% there. as we keep an eye on the trading in that session. crude, obviously continuing to be important for the market. kind of hovering around these levels here. 51.52. wti, brent both up a bit. nat gas making a move as well. it has been whipsawed around the last

steve liesman will sit down with the president of the san francisco federal reserve bank, john williamsan exclusive interview on "power lunch" this afternoon. 1:00 p.m. eastern. this is ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. >>> the top corporate story, shares of macy's, kohl's and nordstrom tumbling after macy's and kohl's reported disappoi disappointing holiday sales. retail report courtney reagan joins us with more. courtney, sum up for us the main sentiment behind the data we got late last night and any insight from calls you've been having. >> hi. good morning. it's disappointing. there's not a lot of other ways to color this story right now. at least from what we're hearing from macy's and kohl's, which we know don't paint the pick hturer all of retail, but for november and december, down about 1.2%. as a result both are luring their full-year earnings guidance. a lot of the strength came during that black friday weekend, that's what we're hearing. during that final week before christmas. as you know, both of those weeks are very promotional, so shoppers get free discounts but that also

i'm kelly evans along with scott wapner and steve liesman.ky, joe and andrew are dusting off the snow of the alps and heading to capitol hill. we'll check in with john harwood on that topic in just a couple of minutes. first let's check in on the markets. u.s. equity markets coming off of a six out of seven-day losing streak. four points off the s&p 500 there. seven off the nasdaq. let's look at how we were trading overnight in asia and europe. a lot of news coming out of davos. japan's nikkei up 1% overnight. the shanghai

live from the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm becky quick, with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman for joe today. you can see right now, some green arrows. dow futures look up about 21 points above fair value, this after the markets were down yesterday off the lows of the session. s&p 500 futures up by 2 1/2 points, the nasdaq futures up by 6 1/2 points. overnight in asia, market there's ended mix with the japan nikkei up 0.8%. in china, markets were mixed. the hang seng was up by a half percentage point.

by the way, the treasury secretary will join us next week with steve liesman, davos is going to be biggreat big weekend. let's get to the judge and "the half." >>> welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner. top trade this hour, best quarter ever for a bank. that is what cnbc's jim cramer called jpmorgan's latest results today. but is it enough to keep the financial rally going? with us for the hour today, josh brown, jim, ian winer here as well, cohead of equities at web bush. let's begin with the banks. what a quarter for jpmorgan. record annual profits that stock is often running this hour. all the banks for that matter are in

nobody does powerpoint like steve liesman. >> yes. >> and fed surveys. we've come back a little bit on the market, especially the s&p heading towards the flat line. >> nasdaq. >> going positive. >> the dow is down half a percent on 107. >> consumer staples turning green and telecom. >> we're half an hour away from apples earnings. some analysts expecting the best financial results ever from that company. we have a preview coming up next. makeug med- halol ac4/7. mei i makeug med- h canoc owh do.leesads ♪ d.where, in t heff tttstak ahis,youre. makeug delivttto sta w don'n'pam god rt u g? j'm shintrat gak rn e te,re. makeug id en acto sta w don'n'pam god rt wikeprs and thours >>> moments ago art cashin told us the markets show an end balance to the 500 to the buy side. we've seen the market come back. in fact, the nasdaq's turned positive and the s&p is coming off it as well. >> the dow is still down 116 heading into the close. >> so it could be -- it's possible it's a record quarter for apple. we'll know in a little while here. josh lip ton has a preview

. >>> later today on "closing bell," steve liesman with exclusive chicago fed president charlie evansl talk about that. dow's down 33. stop trading with jim after a break. >>> time for cramer and stop trading. >> i envision throughout the country there are people right now at the ceo level being advised, please, you may get a tweet, how do you respond to the tweet? i take a company like nike the stock has been going up right after they reported that number that some people didn't think it was that good, it seemed to be putting in a bottom, think about under armour, but this is a company where mark parker has to be thinking what happens if we get a tweet on cross border? because nike is the classic cake u case of the company that brings them in from outside. if i were nike right now, mark parker, very smart man, i'd be saying what's our plan? what's our plan? >> cnn had a report yesterday that some tech companies out west are making sure there's someone ready to respond or at least receive a tweet at 3:30 in the morning west coast time. >> well, that's a new position. >> yeah. >> right

cnbc senior contributor, larry kudlow and steve liesman. what did you think, larry? especially the last discussions there about the pipelines? >> a whole bunch of things that sean did that i really liked. he kept emphasizing growth on almost every count with respect to the pipelines, growth, unions, retraining, the leasing numbers are very good. in other words, they're sending messages here -- and i'm not sure the rest of the world gets this. but as i see it, they're sending very important messages to keep campaign promises. not just on pipelines but building and construction and economic growth. and we were talking offset. education retraining and so forth. this is terrific stuff. terrific stuff. >> i'm wond eerwondering if the today is in response to these executive orders and his promise to growth. >> it wouldn't surprise me. you had all this weirdness over the weekend. now they're sort of really back on message. by the way -- hang on. sean spicer, old friend of mine, is a bulldog. watch how he controlled this press conference. >> i was going to ask you about that

the final read for president obama's term, our senior economics reporter steve liesman has been diggingbers and fascinating impact of trade here on those numbers as well, steve. >> soybeans, sara. we're going to talk about soybeans in a minute. but i want to start out where sara pointed, president obama's term ends with the number center of controversy for his eight-year presidency. 1.9% growth for the fourth quarter, that's a bit below the 2.2% expectation but right in line with the 1.8 that prevailed during his presidency. his economists, many economists argue that's the new growth rate, the potential of the economy has stepped down and obama did well to hit it and grow faster than other developed countries. president trump argues that he can do better with better policies. let's look at details for the fourth quarter, total gdp 1.9, consumer spending, 2.5, that's a step down from the 3 in the third quarter. business investment that is stronger in the third quarter up 2.4%. and exports plunging in part because we had a surge in soybean exports in the third quarter and now they rolled

he's sitting down with steve liesman at 3:10 p.m.st coast, right here on cnbc. ♪ >>> retired marine corps general and donald trump's pick to lead the department of defense james "mad dog" mattis is resigning from a corporate board according to the "wall street journal." the move effectively distances mattis from the controversial blood-testing start-up ahead of his confirmation hearings scheduled to begin on thursday of next week. mattis, however, will remain on the board of general dynamics, which is a large defense contractor with some $15 billion in revenue tied to u.s. government contracts. it does make you wonder, guys, what will happen to that board seat, whether they haven't found a replacement for him, whether they're waiting it see how the confirmation hearing goes, any number of reasons why. but you are seeing plans for tiller season to cash out of exxon, building the groundwork for the confirmation hearings to go well. >> they are, although interesting. it gives a glimpse of what's interested to be kind of a toxic relation

by the way, the treasury secretary will join us next week with steve liesman, davos is going to be big. great big weekend. let's get to the judge and "the half." >>> welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner. top trade this hour, best quarter ever for a bank. that is what cnbc's jim cramer called jpmorgan's latest results today. but is it enough to keep the financial rally going? with us for the hour today, josh brown, jim, ian winer here as well, cohead of equities at web bush. let's begin with the banks. what a quarter for jpmorgan. record annual profits that stock is often running this hour. all the banks for that matter are in the green. j jim, a remarkable quarter, best quarter ever for a financial. all i can say is there will be many more -- many better quartequarte quarters ahead. >> here's what i think. whether it's the jpmorgan or the financials in general, it's a barometer for the overall market. when you look at the chart for the banks or overall market we stabilized for the last month or so after that tremendous trump rally. does it get given back before we go high

but steve liesman has a news alert for. >> thanks very much. president jeff locker announce that he's retiring effective october 2017. lacker joined the board in 2004, became president of the richmond fed in 2004. he was last a voting member in 2015. known as one of the most hawkish members of the board. he dissented three times in 2015. and from what i can tell he dissented every time, the last time the vote for that in 2012 opposing keeping the rates unchanged as well as quantitative easing. lacker's departure in october is part of a massive transformation it's going to happen to the board and to the federal market committee this year. dennis lockhart, the atlanta fed president stepping down in february and obviously there are two appointments coming from the incoming trump administration as well eventually we believe the replacement of janet yellen as the chair of the federal reserve. that won't happen until 2018 or early 2018. scott? >> all right. steve, interesting news. thank you so much. so back to the conversation, mario, because it's a

. >> we even heard from jack lew yesterday in exit interview with steve liesman he wasn't even all that comfortable talking about the dollar as well. your point is well taken. talk to you soon. >> thanks so much. >> rebecca patterson joining us. >>> banking's dynamic duo. we'll hear from jamie dimon and lloyd blankfein both speaking with cnbc today. >>> charter communications hitting a all time high today. apple doing well also. hitting highs not seen since november of 2015. apple is one of the stocks in the cnbc i cue 100. that index is up 36% of the year. for more on that go to cnbc.com/iq100. more halftime with scott wapner and the team coming up. ma iak ♪whyoftep s s ju f iodes.c3 sanor th iak ♪whyoftep thavk fcapitae.ted d cash bonyc bt ept c ucaomeah batonarbein s >>> hi, everyone. i'm sur herera. here's what's happening at this hour. world temperatures hit record high for the third year in a row in 2016. and that is first time in the modern era of global warming data the temperatures have blown past the previous record for three years in a row. >>> heavy rains causing flooding in

steve liesman joins us from chicago with the numbers. steve? >> thanks very much, michelle.rivate employment company, saying that jobs grew by 153,000 in the private sector in the month of december. that's the final report for the year. it's a bit below the estimate, which was 168. they revised down november just a little bit. it was a strong november month, as you'll recall, up by 215,000. above 200,000 now, a little bit of payback here. a big distinction. you can see between the goods sector and services sector, goods down again, minus 16,000, while services surging up 169,000. there's that nonfarm payroll estimate, up 183,000. manufacturing down again. mining, i'm a little surprised to see. we've seen something of a rebound in the natural resource sector with more stable oil prices, but it's not showing up in the adp data. there's your services sector plow manager ahead. up 18,000. 29,000 in education. trade and transportation up by 82,000. this data shows the employment data is strong but it is really slowing. you can see that we began the year with the three-month avera

i'm andrew ross cover ssorkin ay quick, along with steve liesman, hanging out for joe.ight now, the dow would open 16 points higher. the s&p 500 close to a point higher. the ten-year, you're looking at 2.356%. if you're buying oil, buy the barrel. you can do it right now. wti crude at 52.44. steve? >> thanks, andrew. among today's top stories, a business morning for bank earnings, starting with bank of america. it earned 40 cents per share, 2 cents above estimates. revenue was on the light side. wilfred frost joining us with more on the numbers. >> thanks, steve. the shares are down a little on the back of these results. a decent set of numbers in terms of cost discipline and operating leverage. that eps slight beat coming before the real benefits of the interest rate hike have come in, in the fourth quarter earnings. this is the important line from the release from the cfo. he says while the recent rise in interest rates came too late to impact fourth quarter results, we expect to see a significant increase in net interest income in the first quarter of 2017. positive

let's bring in steve liesman. he economist david smick is also with us, author of "the world is curved" and "the great equalizer." welcome to both of you. steve, you go first. >> i have to make a major complaint about my brethren in the media, the president-elect has plans for a major border adjustment tax and potentially import tariffs, they couldn't find a way to ask that question? we need major clarity. you are with me on this? >> he was asked on corporation taxes, but mostly russia, russia, russirussia. >> another question on trade, but they never got around to the big issues that matter. >> border fence. >> but not the border adjustment tax. we could use clarity on this. i want to make one point, mr. trump continues to make an error in some of the data he brings up. 96 million americans he said. do we have the sound from donald trump? maybe this is a small point. 80 million here, 30 million. listen to what the president-elect said. >> you'd have millions more workers right now if the united states that are 96

steve liesman is here. >> what better to begin the new year than a rapid update?above 2% for the fourth quarter, running just below it. q4 tracking 2.1%, average tracker, medium tracker for economists on the street. we'll show you some of thas their numbers in a minute. it is a come down from the stronger 3.5% we ran in the third quarter. put all four quarters together, averaging 2% for the full year. here is where folks are. atlanta fed is at the high side of this, 2.9%. hfe is at 2.3%, goldman sachs at 2.1% and morgan stanley has been the pessimist now at 1.6%. strong ism manufacturing number, strongest since 2014 and good data on employment in that number. construction spending, best number in ten years, especially two back-to-back good months on construction spending, maybe that's turning around. a lot more data to come this week, auto sales coming out looking for 17,7, down from the prior month but a strong rate. fed minutes. how much did they talk about the coming trump policies and how much they talked about rate hikes next year? those tonight out of washin

steve liesman is here with the result of the latest cnbc fed survey. hi, steve. >> melissa, thank you very much. let's take a look at what they think about the outlook of growth this year. money managers and analysts and you see here what we did in 2015, came down with that first weak half, came back in the second half. see an increasing for 2017. 2.5% and 2.8 in 2018. how much of this is the trump effect? we asked them and the response was about a quarter extra point in 2017 and a 40 base points in 2018. this doesn't get to the 4% or even the 3% that the president had said he can do with his policies. let's take a look at the outlook for those policies. overall growth, 82% of our respondents say his policies will increase growth and jobs also. also the stock market. higher deficits are expected, higher inflation as well as higher bond yields. the sum total to tally it all up, they do expect more growth. that said, we'll take a look at the outlook for the recession. and that's sort of moderate. not as low as it's been, back in january 2015, not as high

steve liesman the only man in d.c. not for the inauguration. >> thank you very much. the federal reserve says economy at a moderate pace. economy seems to be changing as the new year begins, labor markets were tightening across most districts. job growth changed from slight to moderate and pricing pressures intensified somewhat. 8 of the 12 districts saw modest price increases. however most of those fellowses appeared to be at the retail level rather than at the -- sorry at the input level rather than the retail level. wages increased modestly. we'll talk more about that in a second. pushed up in many districts by a minimum wage hikes. several noted problems recruiting less skilled workers, something we haven't seen too much of. election effects throughout the 12 federal reserve districts. cleveland, dallas banks reported a positive outlook due to expected regular regulatory and tax relief. boston said uncertainty about the impact of possible policy changes, including affordable care act as well as potential trade restrictions. also mention, by the way of higher inter

and steve liesman joins us as well. austin, was that a good explanation? anything you would add?m i right about the issue of the dollar? >> i thought it was a pretty good explanation and love that you're embracing the economic theory of taxation. simplest way to describe this -- economists have been arguing about this type of tax in principle for a long time. this basically replaces the corporate income tax with a value-added style national sales tax. so you're shifting the base of who is getting taxed from production and the producers in the united states to consumers in the united states. you might want to do that if you thought, hey, consumers can't go anywhere while producers are mobile. but that's also what's going to be controversial because everybody who goes out to buy things is going to say, oh, wait, wait a minute. what happened here? >> so, austan, just so i'm clear here -- i think this is exactly what you describe. if i'm walmart or footlocker and i have domestic revenues of $100 million and 90 million of my cost of goods are imported goods, from wherever they come fr

our steve liesman was e-mailing me about it last night. a chap named mason -- was it henry paulson special assistant in the treasury during the financial meltdown? he might take the regulatory chairman spot. >> that's a very -- i don't know the individual, but i think that's the key thing. remember, tarullo is the governor in charge of regulation. by congressional mandate, it's supposed to be a formal vice chairmanship. they didn't give him that. i don't know why president obama didn't. he's an obama supporter. but he's had to fill those shoes. that's going to be very critical, particularly because this administration is expected by the markets to change the regulatory aspect that they have been assuming so far at the fed under the mandate of dodd/frank. so, that's going to be a key position, and i'm glad you raised it. it's an excellent question. >> richard, i'm wondering what you think the key metric is going to be for this white house in terms of how we measure owth is it stocks? is it the dollar? is itjobs? is it trade? something else?

steve liesman is here to look at that. >> maybe a little dollars and maybe a little soy beans. president obama's term ended fittingly with the same growth number that has been the center of controversy, 1.9% growth for the fourth quarter. that's also for the year. that's a bit below the 2.2% but right in line with the 1.8% that prevailed with the presidency. economists said that's the new growth rate of the economy. obama did it to hit well and grow faster. president trump argued probably successfully with a lot of voteers thvot voters that he could do better. down 2.5 in consumer spending. exports, a big turn around, 4.3% decline and imports up more than expected, up 8.3%. taking a look at the charts on gdp, you see we had a really lackluster first half of the year. three lame quarters in a row. then we had the snap back in the third quarter and then coming back down to what many economists think is the trend of the fourth quarter. there's been a surge in confidence as you guys know amongst consumers and ceos. that could translate into maybe some additional spending and growth

steve liesman has what it will take to get gdp to crack 3%. >> more than a decade.dent trump says his plan will get us to 4. economists say he'll be lucky to get to 3 from the current average of 2%. what i do is look carefully at the boon years. looking for the secret sauce and the first thing you find out is it's a rare secret sauce. it happens just 30% of the time. here's what else happens. consumer spending, it has a surge. more than 3.5% from the current level of 2.2%. productivity has to be high. 2.7%, we're running 1.1. you also get good returns from the stock market. s&p rises on average 16%. you get modest rises in inflation. growth is not inflationary which is what larry kudlow tells me. half right. it's unclear if he has the other half right. take a look here, consumer spending is high. business investment which donald trump has said the big focus is. that has to surge. exports have to surge. imports surge when the economy does well. government spending, it can be all over the place but it's never negative. he'll have to be careful if he wants to get the r

that means steve liesman with the wrap it up of the gdp. >> thanks so much.ew home sales, inventories and the goods trade deficit. put it all together into one pot, see what it comes up with the gdp, and the number is 2.4%. we are tracking for the fourth quarter so far. still? data to come beginning toward the end here. up 0.1%. quite a good range there. 17 to 2.9. we'll show you where it is in the forecast. this is the forecast of the economies at 2.1%. you see there we did the third quarter, gdp actual 3.5. see you can remember those numbers. the atlanta fed is at 2.9% for the fourth quarter. they're on the high side. hf sechlt at 2.3. morgan stanley at 1.9. and at bottom of this whole thing at yx economics 1.7%. so all of that comes together and it comes out to about a 2% economy is where we are right now. >> so i'm looking at a dow that says 20,000. it says everything's great. it says optimism. does the economy also say dow 20,000? >> i think it does. because if you remember we had this very, very weak first half of the year. we did 1.1%. second half of t

they come out at 2:00, steve liesman come on, start thinking, wow, oh my, so worried they may have to raise rates. i have to tell you, they're not talking about raising rates three more times than j.p. morgan which is one of my fafrt stocks in the dow can go down big. remember, four rate hikes. the whole dynamic has changed. we saw some of that with byron. we are at one of these moments where we want growth. and we don't fear the fed. and not fearing the fed, not fearing the tape, obviously the market went down yesterday when oil broke and then came back. what was it led by? the oil stocks. we have money coming into this market. i remain thinking, look, if you own stocks, don't sell anything. if you don't, i'm still convinced they'll be moments intraday, maybe a couple days. the bull/bear ratio, everything's so bullish. you will get a moment where someone from the republican leadership will challenge trump. the interesting thing is he rolls the republican leadership. he rolled them on watch talk. >> we got the ethics tweets and basically the house being -- people saying it was a pratt

we have to get to our steve liesman here. >> we were talking about the markets.he one thing odd to me today, the mexican peso strengthened. had a very good day. is that some kind of turn around. buy on the rumor, sell on the news. something like that. not what you would expect. >> the president's going to give us economic advice next week. >> no. >> mexican president. >> oh, i got -- >> he's going to slash the mexican backpack. >> thank you, larry. thank you guys for joining us. >>> while trump has nominated 21 cabinet positions, there's still key economic positions. steve leaseman has the latest. >> kelly, we have the guys who everybody knows about, gary cohen and steve mnuchin. they distinguished themselves by being business guys. both very schooled in finance. the question is are there economists coming? are there people schooled in some of the regulatory aspects? a couple of names floated, kevin hassett of the american enterprise institute, well published in peer-reviewed journals. he's the guy who can look at the stuff that's presented to him, different idea

steve liesman joins us with a look at the fed's makeup in 2017. >> good morning, joe. new year, new members of the fed. just real quickly on those minutes, these are the minutes of the meeting where the fed hiked rates and when it first began to consider some of the fiscal policies that could come from the trump administration. let's talk about the new fed. what we see is that doves will be replaced by a couple hawks. new voting members on the rate setting federal market committee. this is the 2016 committee. you can see there, take a look at your right. loretta mester and ester george were two of the most hawkish members of the fed. not a lot of company in term of the most dovish members here. this is on a scale of 0 to 10, an average as weighed by our respondents to the cnbc fed survey. now look at what happens in 2017. the two hawks, they go away, replaced by two centrists. in comes charlie evans all the way on the left. the result, if you add it all up, is one of the more dovish feds we've had in a while, except for a couple things. donald trump, the incoming presi

should congress kill rules, weighing in on those questions economic reporter steve liesman hanging outy. >> who would have thought such excitement? i thought. that's why i was there. fed governor jay powell making outspoken remarks on controversial volcker rule. it keeps banks from proprietary trading. >> we don't want largest snugs to be seriously engaged in proprietary trading as a line of business. we do want them to hedge their positions and be able to create markets. so the question is does the volcker rule, as it's been enacted by congress in a 15-page statute and promulgated in 300 page regulation, does it do that efficiently? the answer is really in my view, no. >> that's a big deal, guys. he just said he doesn't think the volcker rule does the job but he wants congress essentially to repeal it. it's just one of the dodd/frank regulatory reform bill sure to be reviewed and replaced by republican congress. meanwhile on the same panel billionaire hedge fund manager bill griffin said one solution would be to keep invest men banks from being regulated or being banks at all. he ment

steve liesman is old enough to remember the reagan years. >> no, i don't go that far back.years. there were two years in the bush years. >> only two. >> only two. that's the thing i want to get to. it's been 11 years since the economy last grew north of 3%. president trump says his plan can get us to four, but economists say he'll be lucky to get to 3 from the current 2% average. i look at the bloom years, the nine times since 1990 that we grew north of 3%. the first thing you realize is the secret sauce is rare. it happens just 30% of the me. here are some other characteristics of a strong economy like that. you get consumer spending north of 3.5%, that'll be good news to our guest host here, greg. productivity averages 2.7%. it's now just one. you have to really boost productivity. the s&p 500 on average grew 16% a year during those boom years. and proving the first law of kudlowian growth, only a modest rise in inflation. trump has the recipe at least half right, unclear if we know he has the other half right. we don't know all the policies. take a look at some of the co

steve liesman is going to have an exclusive exit interview with treasury secretary jack lew. 10:10 exactly, eastern time. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. your path to retirement may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence. >>> welcome back to "squawk box." we're continuing our live coverage this morning. we're in davos, switzerland, with the head of one of the most talked about companies in the tech space today, salesforce.com. it's coming off a record acquisition year, spending nearly $5 billion. stock up 11% just from the beginning of the year. marc benioff is here, chairman and ceo. what are we attributing this stock performance to? >> i think last year was not our banner year in the stock. we had a great year last year from the performance of the company. last year was not a banner year on the stock performance. i've been waiting for the stock performance from las

our senior economics reporter steve liesman is here. of a breakdown and explanation. >> at the end of this, yoe is going to tell me to give it up. it was one thing when president trump said wrongly that the 96 million americans not in the labor force were all looking for work. it's just 5.4 million who say they want a job, according to the bureau of labor statistics. the rest are retired, students, or homemakers. but now that he's president, president trump should get the number right. no matter what he does, this number is going to go up under his presidency. in fact, four years from now, the number that trump says is so awful at 96 million is very likely to top 100 million. why? as little trump can do about it, chris rupkey says, government policymakers should not focus on bringing down the numbers of americans, not in the labor force because it is simply going to grow larger and larger in the years to come. the number has gone up every year since 1990. growth weakens in good economies and accelerates in weak economies can like it did

cnbc's senior economics reporter, steve liesman, is back with more of the exclusive results from the. the all-america fed survey. we're focusing on -- >> no, no. this is just the fed survey, joe. >> not all-america. >> no, this is just the wall street types, the economists, the strategists. >> how many surveys -- >> i do two. the all-america, which is all america, 800 people nationally. this one is done for like the last ten years or so, joe. which tells me how much attention you've actually been paying. >> the all-america survey -- or the fed survey. >> becky, what do you do in a situation like this? >> move right on. >> move right along. moving right along. folks, this is really interesting here. this is the fed survey, 41 economists, fund managers, and strategists polled. they say protectionist policies are the top economic threat, and it's so big that 51% say it's the biggest threat and we've never seen a number of any single threat be a majority. ever, okay. >> again, this is from economists. >> and this was not going to be my lead. if you look at this, it's just one of four asp

>> joining us is marlin steel and steve liesman joins us from head quarters as well. drew, i'm curious. clearly the president held the meeting with the ceos today. the question was, what's keeping you from hiring right now? what do you want to hear from the government to get you to start hiring more. what do you think he heard from them? >> first of all i think it's wonderful that on the first business day of his administration the very first meeting he has is with manufacturers. he really understands the importance of american manufacturing and its wonderful impact into the economy so he has several things that he's talking about doing, and one of them he discussed at that meeting today. the first thing is he's going to roll back regulations. he's talking about rolling back 75% of the regulations on the books today. there's about 300,000 regulations burdening american manufacturers. they're really shackling us. if we could get rid of some of those we could really grow and hire more talent. other things the president has talked about is lowering the tax rate so that w