for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> if the federal reserve does hike interest rates tomorrow, it will be the fourth time in this rate hike cycle. savers aren't yet ben from that. we'll look at why later in the program. >>> traders were watching the late afternoon hearing on capitol hill where attorney general jeff sessions testified on russia. and he was fiery from the get-go. >> the suggestion that i participated in any collusion, that i was aware of any collusion with the russian government to hurt this country, which i have served with honor for 35 years, or to undermine the integrity of our democratic process, is an appalling and detestable lie. >> john harwood is in washington for us tonight. john, he answered some questions but he refused to answer others. so did we learn anything new? what was the big takeaway? >> reporter: not a lot new. it wasn't like james comey's testimony last week. what we saw from jeff sessions, as you played in that clip, a very emotional defense of his honor, his patriotism, his integrity, defended himself more than he defended presid

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> still ahead, the aerospace industry takes flight. >> the global dema fly which is reason orders for new airplanes are pouring in here at the paris air show. i'm phil lebeau. we'll go behind the scenes coming up on the "nightly business report." >>> for defense and commercial aviation companies, 2017 is turning into one of the strongest years ever. demand for military jets and commercial airplanes is climbing and that makes this year's paris air show a very busy place for some of the world's largest companies. phil lebeau, as you saw, has more from us from paris. >> reporter: with lockheed martin's f-35 putting on a show in the sky, defense companies are taking center stage at the paris air show. >> we are absolutely busier, we have looked at what our meetings are and they are up by a large significant magnitude and we expect to have great interactions all day today and throughout the week. >> reporter: military contractors are gearing up for more orders as countries expand their defense budgets including the u.s., where the trump ad

as my friend steve liesman would say they have to get back to where we just kind of a normalized leveling at the economy we have to roll over it's healthy yourself that we have to get balk out of the emergency phase. he's getting it from the horse's mouth. he's not just saying i think they ought to tighten. may >> may trying to get the alliance in reasonable fashion >> i know, they've got inflation. they really do the pound, when you go over there, you're just surprised at the cost of things, and i don't want to be it shall -- the british economy right now had a move the only other thing i lirke diagio, johnny walker is priced in every dollar. the blue is too expensive. buy the black. the blue is overpriced i just want to point that out. >> alibaba got some love today from ray j., a street high of 190. 20 bucks above the rest. >> there were four big price target bumps yesterday alibaba was the only stock that was defended by analysts, and i think part of that was they didn't feel like it was fact the "a" has never been alibaba in fang. it's really been american and you've got a lot to

i don't know if you heard the bill gross interview but steve liesman talked about fed funds going to 3%. what's your take on everything going on >> reporter: 2.87, 30-year dutch auction yield. i gave the auction a c-plus. charlie plus all the metrics were average price tight, though, with that 2.87 now done i had former governor robert helle are r on he said the same thing and i don't dispute the notion that there's a good argument to be made the rest of the market isn't under normalization function it's not going to normalize. i don't think the long end can handle that. i think bill gross is right. they'll invert the curve never a good thing >> rick, thank you very much we will see you again soon, rick santelli >>> folks, bitcoin has been hitting record highs can you actually live off of bitcoin? we did and by we i mean seema we will tell you what happened and the uber report crossing and travis kalanick is taking a w llt fe te omheomny howi iafctheir valuation? that question next so, how are things career-wise? they- you're fired! [ screaming ] it's time to get back on top. we're g

steve liesman has broken down the results of the cnbc survey on watching wall street and what they're watching for >> the cnbc fed survey ahead of the federal vefs meetireserves g shows 100% think a fed hike will happen, 54% in september 64% say the balance sheet will decline by december. you can see the three rate hikes this year, up to 1.4%, 2.1% in 2018, then a little bit more modest in 2019, leading up t 2.8% which they believe is a terminal rate. that's a bit below where the fed's own forecast is for 2019 and for the long run kind of pessimistic when it comes to the stock outlook 2429 is the current level, going up to 2442 for the rest of this year they think most of the gains are in this year but a little bit more in the 2018, up to 2562 for 5%. but some optimism as to the reasons why stocks are at current levels earlier this year, 82% thought it was expectations for fiscal policy from the new trump administration that's come way down, 29%. 63% believe what's underpinning markets are economic fundamentals and earnings. now, when it comes to the outlook for growth, that's come do

joining us is cnbc's senior economic's reporter, steve liesman and rick santelli. we begin this hour with the biggest question facing investors. if the economy is allegedly so good, the job market so robust, why do bond yields keep falling and what could that mean for the future of the trump rally? rick, makes me think something's got to break, something's got to give. bonds or stocks first? >> i think it will be mario draghi and the central bank of japan. i think one of the biggest reasons interest rates globally are going down is because traders always follow the biggest trader in the room. they always do. down here in the '80s, we had tom baldwin. when he'd jump up and down and bid for a thousand bonds at a time, it was big. what do you think every small local next to him did? bit on a one lot or a two or three lot. so i think in that regard, there's a trillion dollars year to date being invested by central banks. ever heard of soma? wh we have auction, might be 28 billion sevens. then the fed is probably buying another four we don't talk about. the other channe

steve liesman, cnbc business news >>> a lot to talk about with beth ann bovino.u very much for joining us this time on this side of the pond let's start with the monetary policy outlook the fed is forecasting one more hike this year, three next year. the market is more dovish than that where do you stand >> we're in line with the fed. i swear we didn't even talk to each other about it. we were not surprised about the 25 basis hike in june. we expect another in september we plan for the fed to move on its balance sheet. next year we're about in line. >> why do you think you're more hawkish than the general market consensus? the rest of the market is seeing inflation, core ece is low >> maybe markets are suffering from separation anxiety. they like the low interest rates, that might be one reason why. the other factor could be -- in terms of the inflation story, we also do recognize that we have to watch what happens with the inflation. we don't want it to go down lower that would be a concern. if you look at some of the numbers, i think yellen mentioned that some

steve liesman.own with softbank's ron fisher yesterday he's the founder of softbank capital. we covered everything from fiber to the vision fund here's what he had to say on investing in that fund take a listen. >> you're saying ilt restricts capital investment if you're tying those two together >> in certain areas it does restrict i don't think it's a blanket, you know, to restrict. it doesn't but i think one has to look at the problems based on what are the requirements in particular areas to get that capital investment made? and what's best solution, is it fiber, is it encouraging the cable companies to open up their broadband. in long term is it satellite which can create, you know, the same kind of bandwidth. >> guys, this is a big moment last night actually, what ron fisher was talking about there was the idea that title 2 regulation, which a lot of people conflate with net neutrality actually a job killer for middle america when you talk about the idea of attracting tech jobs out there. broad

steve liesman is about to go into the federal reserve lockup. before he does, he joins us with what exactly investors need to be looking for and listening for in today's announce. steve? >> reporter: brian, it was going to be a boring rate hike meeting became more interesting with the release of weak data the consensus is it could prompt one or more dissents it's more we're likely to emerge from the statement and the press conference with less certainty about the direction of policy. take a look at the ten-year melissa was talking about. it fell sharply in the wake of the two data reports this morning. it hasn't been this low since november 10th, two days after the election the yield has fall en nearly 50 basis points from its post election high. economists said, quote, we now expect this afternoon's fomc statement to include a stronger acknowledgement of the recent soft inflation data. and over at pantheon, if this trend continues through the summer, then the next hike, which we have been expecting in september, will be delayed you can see here

touch again today. >> 25 record closes for the s&p 500 in 2017, 22 for the dow. >> let's get to steve liesman steve. >> good morning, carl. i'm here with chicago fed president at the nasdaq. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> the fed is in danger of sending a message that this 2% goal is a cap and yet you have voted twice now to raise interest rates while the fed is not meeting the inflation target why do you consistently vote there but also say on the other hand that the fed needs to set a consistent message about inflation? >> fair question it's very important that, you know, we said 2% is our objective and we need to follow through on that. we need to average 2% over a long enough period of time we have run under 2% for a number of years. it's very important to get inflation up you're right i have voted with the committee on the rate increases so far and that's in part because i think that the fundamentals for the economy are good i think that the unemployment rate falling to 4.3 is good. i think it's likely we will see more inflationary pressures but i'm nervous. i t

let's go over to steve liesman with the number. >> adp reporting payroll rose by 253,000.000 jobs services. the nonforeign pay roll estimate for friday is just 184,000. median basis 113,000, large business 57,000, small 83,000. and education and health up 54,000. construction 37,000 jobs along with manufacturing, 8,000 and leisure hospitality down by 8,000. let's bring in mark zandi. we're accelerating at a time when everybody thought we were moderating. >> yeah, a big number. if you look at the internals of the adp data, they all look really strong. it was a really strong month in the labor market. just to give you context, this 250 k is three times the rate of the growth in the underlying labor force. so that means the unemployment rate, which is 4 hadn't -- 4.4% is rib roaring and really tight. >> if you want to look at the two year, we crossed that 130 level, which we haven't in quite a while so a little bit of a selloff in the bond market. not huge given where we are. mark, what's happening with growth right now in terms of why is it that is seemed like the growth was

that's why we call it the all america survey >> steve liesman with some good numbers.largest air show is under way. a quick programming note, do not ttg wnityd blankfein tonight siindo wh cramer at 6 p.m. eastern time. ng. ng. always on the lookout for patterns and connections to make everything work better. i call it the internet of everything, but it's really the internet of everyday life. ♪ the partnership between dell technologies and sap helps make the promise of the internet of things a reality for our customers. we know how powerful live data can be. we use sap at dell to run everything from finance to procurement to travel expenses. and that's the same kind of live insight we can now start offering to all of our customers. and as we get better information, better insights, it can improve virtually every aspect of society and the economy. a quick programming note, do not of our generation. the next industrial revolution. that's why dell technologies runs live with sap. they are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fr

i imagine our steve liesman will be peppering her with questions from the peanut gallery.makers will have some fresh inflation data as they consider their latest rate decisions. the may producer price index coming out this morning with the head line number expected to be unchanged. tomorrow morning ahead of the two-day meeting, the may consumer price index will also be out and a longtime blackrock fund manager stepping down. dennis statman retiring after 28 years with blackrock's global allocation fund has $40 become under management he will retire in august according to an internal memo seen by reuters. so the investment class will be chattering about that this morning. >> all right now, to the day ahead in washington attorney general jeff sessions heads to capitol hill today to testify before congress at a public hearing he'll be appearing before the senate select committee on intelligence sessions will likely face questions over the firing of former fbi james comey as well as his contact with th shares of excel ron pharma are progression free down 5% merck has caused en

joining us is cnbc's senior economic's reporter, steve liesman and rick santelli. the biggest question facing investors. if the economy is allegedly so good, the job market so robust, why do bond yields keep falli

steve liesman, thank you. feels like the working theory for the fed is three rate hikes this year.k at stocks this hour. got a minirally going on. the dow is up 26 points. as for the s&p, you're seeing strength in groups like materials and health care and the financials are catching a little bit. technology's at the bottom of the s&p. much more "squawk on the street." stay with us. investing approach. the power of smart beta. power your client's portfolio with powershares. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. call 800-983-0903 for the prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. distributed by invesco distributors inc. containing this information. read it carefully. welcome to holiday inn! ♪ ♪ whether for big meetings or little getaways, there are always smiles ahead at holiday inn. >>> take a look at the auto stocks this morning. it's the day they report monthly sales. actually some mixed results. ford outperforming gm, annual rate of sales below 17 million it looks like, but the stocks bouncing pretty much across

big event this afternoon will be a fed decision on interest rates and cnbc's senior reporter, steve liesman, is at the federal reserve right now. steve, we mentioned what's happening in rates today, but if there's another area of the market that seems to be telling, what it thinks the fed may do or say later, it is the financials. the xlf is down almost 1% as we're having this conversation you've raise d the issue yoursef as to whether the language is going to change and if it does, the implication is it's not going to be good for the banks >> yeah, so i had two opinions, one at 8:29 and wup at 8:31 this morning. four months in a row of weakening core inflation this creates a huge dilemma for janet yellen and the market committee. which is they have unemployment at a 16-year low and inflation going the wrong on her and them and the idea of the textbook says it's supposed to go the other way. supposed to have rising inflation amid lower unemployment and it's not happeni happening, so my best guess is we're still on today for a rate hike, but i think the idea of a september hike, which a lot

point yesterday and unveiled plans for how it intends to trim its 4$4.5 billion balance sheet steve liesmanreaks down what the latest policy move means for markets. >> the fed had concerns of weaker inflation and mieconomic concerns straight in the eyes and moved to raise it a quarter point any way. most fed officials continue to forecast another rate hike this year, and three more next year fed chair janet yellen suggested that yesterday's hike was still not very aggressive. >> all that we're doing in raising rates is moving -- removing a bit of accommodation heading towards a neutral pace and i see that as appropriate. we're not moving so aggressively as to put a brake on continued improvement in the labor market. >> here's some of the e-commentary out there rbc saying anything but dovish barkl barclays says june straight ahead. so does the fed start reducing the balance sheet as early as september and enact a third rate hike in december or go again in december and then wait until december to cut the balance sheet. i think the date will show the way how hawkish the fed will be. the questi

following that he sits down with steve liesman for an exclusive interview with squawk on the street at00 a.m. >>> another top executive is leaving uber. the company announcing the head of finance is out as the firm posted a loss of 708 million for the first quarter, which is narrower than the loss reported three months ago. revenue grew 8%. the privately held company is not obligated to publish results but has been doing so. top trending stories now. starting with hillary clinton getting some buzz for comments she made about jeff bezos yesterday at the code conference. listen. >> i think jeff bezos saved the "washington post." his purchasing the "washington post" i think a lot of people, a lot of his peers and friends, why would buy this ancient medium called a newspaper? but newspapers still drive news. drives news online, on tv. >> he did save it with the monetary injection by buying it. it has been doing amazing work and breaking news. >> he's investing in the medium of hard core journalism and if there's anyone that can save it and bring it forward to the modern era over the next f

cnbc's all america economic survey is out and steve liesman is back at global headquarters with some.t steve? >> yeah. kelly, some really interesting stuff where we get to bear down on some of the issues. let's talk about the key issue about privatizing infrastructure we asked about highways and airports, and look at the support the president has on this 53% favoring it, and 33% opposing it. the rest are don't know or are unsure, but what happens when we ask specifically about the idea of privatizing the faa take a look, we get to the faa and they oppose it there it is right there, 33-53 it flips on the other side america is saying hands off the faa, but go ahead and privatize the roads and the airports another critical issue about companies and the issue of climate change with president trump said he was withdrawing from take a look you have 24% strongly supporting it and 10% somewhat it's about 34, but big opposition to withdrawing, and a lot of intensity around the issue. the support is strongly opposition is very high right in here, strong opposition. what about companies and what

is the best reporter on this i have not heard steve liesman articulate that view yet if he articulateslike that salmon colored thing. i'll go to the big salmon run in alaska if that -- just, you know, kind of accentuate it. >> there's the ten year, having come up a bit on the yield for the past few days. >> watch amazon, down 23 showing no sign of a turn yet. >> ge is your best gainer. almost a 5% move let's get to bob pisani. hey, bob. >> happy monday, everybody let's split open -- i want to show you what's going on in europe where we're not surprisingly getting some follow through to the second sell-off that we saw in the united states some of the big chip names that are down there asml one of the big chip machine manufacturers is down. these all trade over in europe and obviously you can see some follow through on the down side. here in the u.s. we're seeing what we saw on friday which is rotations into values. so energy stocks strong again. today as they were on friday banks up fractionally. tech down. consumer discretionary down. two of the big market leaders on the year -- tech a

. >>> we are back on the halftime report steve liesman joining us now >> he's pumped >> i'm looking fore hike >> are investors in financial stocks going to be excited or no. >> if you want rates to go up, then investors should be excited. of course, the problem you have is you don't necessarily have the financial markets going along if lock step with the fed. the fed is going to raise rates. 54% of our respeondents believe they get a third in september. that goes along with balance sheet reduction. all of that should serve to raise rates higher than the problem you have is that you don't have the fiscal stimulus the market expected. you had all this expectation higher gdp, inflation, tax cuts, reform, infrastructure all of that has now moved into 2018 if it happens >> i know the president who just made these comments from the white house about the health care bill, said the committee is great. even among you know, amid other suggestions that it's slowing. so, how is the fed going to take this into consideration for the remainder of the year? that's what the market -- >> if i was a bald

this brings us to our senior economics reporter steve liesman with his all-america economic survey andhy we talked about blue apron first, steve >> we also want to talk about bezos and give you data when it comes to investing in food stocks to chew on. show you eating out. are you eating out more or less? 1 in 10 call it eating out more but 1 in 4 eating out less what part of the business is bezos going into the part aboutiting at home. 63% say it's the same. we asked this 25% here, why are you eating out less? here's the results 52% say because it's healthier to eat at home what part? healthy foods. 35% say the food quality is better there 31% say to save money. 10% for other reasons. now we also asked about the kind of online food experience. have you used an app or gone online to order foods from local restaurants using grubhub or seamless 12% of the public. have you just ordered it to use it to get grocery delivery 7% and there's blue apron 5% of the public all combined, about 18%. call it 1 in 5 have used the internet or an app to go online and order food i think if you look at th

. >> steve liesman, cnbc. madam chair, wonder if you talk to the president or members of his staff about the possibility of staying on as chair for a second term? also, wondering if you would consider doing that? is that something you thought about doing? and finally, there are three vacancies on the fed. do you have any comment at all for the president on his failure to nominate anybody for these positions? >> what i said about my own situation that i fully intend to serve out my term as chair which ends in early february. i have not had conversations with the president about future plans. and i do very much hope, i note that they have been working hard to identify appropriate nominees for the open slots. and i do very much hope that there will be nominations in the not-too-distant future. and that the senate will take those up expeditiously. i look forward to having a full board. >> your desire to stay on? >> i really don't have anything for you at this point. >> thank you very much. sam fleming from "the fi

steve liesman has all the numbers from the all-america economic survey.ults. and later another "squawk box" newsmaker energy secretary rick perry talks energy innovation and putting money to work in the u.s. 8:40 there eastern time. st tedoue tcng "squawk box" on cnbc (baby crying) ♪ fly ♪ me to the moon (elegant music) ♪ and let me play (bell rings) >>> the biggest names in aerospace are gathering at the paris air show phil lebeau is there he's joined by a special guest phil, over to you. >> thank you, will fred. joined by greg hayes chairman and ceo of united technologies this is one of those shows where once the focus tends to be more on the military side which positions well for pratt whitney, doesn't it? >> absolutely. first of all, thanks for having us back. last year we talked about brexit the year before that it was the gear turbo fan we're going to talk about military which is a great story for the pratt business >> how much more demand are you noticing in terms of conversation, in terms of potential orders out there >> i think what we're seeing

evans yesterday cited the softness of inflation data as a reason for caution he will be joining steve liesmanquawk box" at 10:40 a.m. eastern time looking forward to that. >>> president trump talking up apprenticeships recently in the heartland. it's a subject the president knows a bit about and it's an idea that some big companies are put flag practice. joining us from the select usa investment summit in d.c. is judy marks, the ceo of siemens usa. good to have you here. >> good morning. glad to be here. >> semens is a german company. familiar with apprenticeships which are extremely common in germany. more than half of all graduates or people entering the work force end up in apprenticeships there. is it translatable to the united states where our labor markets are significantly different? >> our labor markets are not that different we need high-tech skills we need manufacturing technicians. we need skills across the country right now. we have transferred this incredible dual program. we started in 2010 in our charlotte, north carolina energy hub where we build gas and steam turbines and gen

eastern time with fed chair janet yellen holding a news conference a half hour later steve liesman will on the fed in just a moment also investors will get a look at two key economic reports ahead of the fed decision. retail sales, also the consumer price index both coming out for the month of may at 8:30 eastern time and expected to be unchanged for the month according to consensus forecasts. >>> also oil prices under a bit of pressure this morning take a quick look. the international energy agency says the current global oil glut will remain at least through the end of the year. the i.a. saying that despite opec's production cut u.s. production levels have increased, and there's already a high level of oil in storage wti crude right now down about 1% at 45.94. >>> a developing story this morning. london's fire commissioner says that there have been a number of fatalities in a fire that broke out overnight at a high rise apartment building firefighters are still working to put out the blaze, which quickly engulfed the 24 story building in west london. at least 50 people have been taken

steve liesman has been -- you've been combing through the data, steve?> a cheap pun on the part of the producers, i think, bill. >> yes. >> kelly can comb through the data. >> big old horse brush to get through. >> high fly through, or whatever. there is a debate, guys, i want to talk about the debate, a sign of a weakening or strengthening economy and labor market, some quists say we only have 138,000, we're looking for 134. the jobs created, the labor market is near full employment. the labor market near a 10 year low, as is the broader measure of labor slack. that includes the unemployed and those who can't find full time work. relative to the past, you can see right there, the job market looks pretty tight. the lack of workers and modest economic growth are holding back job gains. philly fed president patrick harker called it good jobs number and thinks the fed should hike twice this year and reduce the balance sheet. you can see the probability went up. it was as high as 90. the probability of a june rate hike. no dissuading of the idea that the fed

>> steve liesman is joining us now. >> yeah, i want to take a look at donald trump's best issues, i am have any news. >> infrastructure and individual tax cuts and reducing business regulations. all of these are a majority in favor of donald trump's stance look at the difference between april and the june survey, he lost grounds quite a bit on infrastructure and tax cuts and you know all of these major issues he lost grounds on in terms of support from the public now looking at the bottom, the worst issues for the president in a different way those percentages of disagreeing and agreeing healthcare of 48 and 44 within the margins there. not terrible in the margins. look at enforcing immigration on the border wall, 10 points under water and climate change is nearly 20 points under water put all of this together in one hole lets look at his approval rating overall and the economy 37% and 51% disapproving >> charles evans will be on. >> we'll be looking forward for that >> scott ren at wargo. y wells wargo. >> what do you think it means from the market? >> the only thing this market is fo

. >> steve liesman joins us now.o you -- you had followed cherry ellen for a long time how do you interpret what she said >> keep of neutral what's interesting the conversation has not been had. i believe she would have told us had she had it i asked about the president or his staff members and she didn't answer that part of it so i don't know if that part of the conversation has been had. she didn't answer it as to the president. i think any fake chair wants to be asked to do it. i think she's been a public servant for a long time and what i know of her is that she would serve. i don't quite know the politics of saying that you want to do it it's one of those things where i want to be asked, and the president may be like well, you have to ask me first i don't know the back and forth on that, i think it's been done before, you know the fed chair would say i'd be happy to serve and it's always been like well, i'm waiting for the president to ask me >> as to who might replace her if it's not going to be her, on the one

. >>> welcome back fed hiking rates for the second time this year steve liesman joins us with more >>veral steps yesterday down the road to getting its policy back in total. the fed, one, hiked point to a frerjts and flounce sfrurj sfrrks an unemployment rate that's climbed to levels we've not seen since 2001. even in motteration, we have a lengthen market that tns to strengthen >> back to the approximately sheet. some speculate pfrmt frj personal snrnlt so that's two trillion frrktsd perhaps or normal. i don't know if it's ab or be abnorm abnormal >> frank stein >> thank you want this naurngt now, i'm lay fochlt i mean, i know a oum nifrmt. >> you know that part. >> yes, but i've never seen it it >> nfrmt g yo a investment, senior portfolio and sflifrmt and one of theets days one of these new his will represent the point at which we her ysh pr fwrrchl i think we've already seen the races ups sfrrks or tend problems for the frornlt rotation in the nrmt it's dpn been relatively good and likely to stay good we just did a company, looking at 5% increase in capital spending going up nichb

let's bring in brian and our own steve liesman. lot of similarities to a lot of what has come out of the white house but we didn't hear the border adjustment tax. he talked around it quite a bit. >> the speaker is going to be joining us in 15 or 25 minutes on cnbc. we are going to ask him about that and whether that is d.o.a there are a lot of similarities between what speaker ryan and vice-president pence had to say. pence spoke about 45 minutes ago talking about reducing the code from 7 brook kackets down it 3 pence highlighted a 15% corporate tax rate ryan did not stick to a number we will ask him about that a lot of discussion about tax reform the speaker will join us and we will dig more into the numbers when he does >> what did you think whether he heard what paul ryan said? >> it is what i didn't hear. i didn't hear the words donald trump. >> we heard the words mike pence but not donald trump >> this is somewhat reflecting the polling that we talked about yesterday. the president's declining approval rating. also, the declin

. >>> chicago federal reserve president charlie evans sat down with our own steve liesman earlier this morning giving his thoughts on how the progress of president trump's agenda is actually impacting business confidence listen >> business confidence has been strong that's certainly true. i think it's been an expectation that washington, the president and congress would deliver on, you know, some type of tax reform, right sizing regulatory burden and less regulatory burden, things like that it's taking longer, and there's more uncertainty it hasn't really been laid out in a clear fashion, i think, and so, you know, people are probably downgrading how much they expect. >> so what does this all do to the trump trade that we've been talking a lot about? joining our "closing bell" exchange with the dow down 25 points, hank smith from abbottford trust and steve bliss is here at the new york stock exchange with with us and rick santelli is at the cme in chicago. and hank, i'm going to start with you because, you know, we all know about the high expectations that the market participants had a

steve liesman, smiling. >> because i get to bring the good news.s never happens. >> for seven years there, just -- >> eight, nine, ten -- all bad news. investors focused on all the washington intrigue might miss a bigger story here. bigger macro story may be underpinning this strong market. a report today global growth due to a modest upturn projected in 2017 and '18. neutral in '17 but expansionary in 2018, and sees the ecb tightening in 2018. the numbers, oecd raising economic growth forecast 3.5%, better than the 3% for 2016 and the same 3 for the next year. 2017, 2018 growth for the eurozone you can see up near 2%. we'll take that. united states up a little bit from this -- in to 2018 from '17, down from the prior forecast moving the fiscal stimulus in 2018. better fon investment overseas. heard a lot of that on this and other shows. overseas growth helps the u.s. economy. ricochets back, boosts rdgp and underpin what's going on. center the last five years, europe, japan a drag, when everybody was a drag. >> another voice into the conversation,

job number for may have and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in 16 years and our steve liesman more. >> yeah, carl, this disappointing jobs usual in along with the -- number along with the downward revisions, what's going on in the job market and where the fed goes from here. nonfarm payrolls 138. we were looking for 184 in march and april together, revised down by 66,000 as well. the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. down a tick. labor force participation rate is down 62.7. average hourly wage, are okay. but if the labor market was tight you'd expect better wages. here's the three month average. you can see it's gone down from 201,000, step to step down to 121,000 now. because of those revisions. here is where the jobs were. education and health, up 47,000. that may explain low wage growth because a lot of jobs were there. leisure and hospitality up by 31. construction. 11,000 thousand. retail continues to lose jobs down by 6,000. government also down, but that was state and local. federal was up by about 8,000 or 9,000. over at the dmo we suspect that most of the slowing ref

steve liesman has more. >> pretty disappointing data the market is reacting to the disappointing retail data we go both raising -- we got most economists think a fed rate hike is a forgone conclusion today, but over at pantheon, if this trend continues on in september then the next hike will be delayed. the unemployment sat a 16 year low, the inflation is declining. we will see more about that in a second the long rates are plummeting and stocks by the way are soaring if you haven't noticed here's the problem, four months in a row of declining core inflation. while the unemployment rate declines it hasn't been this low since november 10th, ten days after the election now, the fed remains on track to hike today in part because it's really normalizing rates more than it's tightening doesn't want to slow down the economy that means it's not quite as data dependent as it was. but today's data is going to put a note of caution in the guidance for future hikes that i think we'll hear from janet yellen in the press conference. >> we look forward to that a busy day for us. for more, we're joine

. >> let's bring in steve liesman. >> it's down 1.4%. this is an all time low.is low consistently been this low the number of claims a very strong job market. speaking of strength what's happening with the economy president trump said he thinks we'll get good numbers in the second quarter i suggest he's right running at 2.9%. take a look. this is down, almost a point from where we started. a couple of disappointments but still running very strong. you see a nice bounce back from 1.2% in the first quarter. but very quickly on the fly, average the two together 1.2, 2.9 and you get back to 2% >> that's a wide range >> you still have a lot of data to cover what we're doing here, what makes it so great we're averaging all the models some guys with models of 2.4, some 3.7 >> we get a three print i can't wait for that tweet. >> what does it say? >> i'm not going -- >> america is back >> i hope it happens >> winning >> in made a rule, i am not blaming or praising donald trump for anything to do with the economy until at least after the second quarter i think what you ha

steve liesman is here. >> yeah, becky, we're going to have full results on monday on the poll of america'sn the economy and financial issues i want to give you some results from our poll. 800 americans across the country on the political situation what we've got is by a 43% to 26% margin americans think president trump pressured former fbi director james comey to end the russia investigation what you see is a significant 31% of the public say they do not know enough to have an opinion or unsure. when you take the 30% you could add it to either side but the pluralities believes that president trump pressured the former fbi director. and when you look at it by party breakdown it's very interesting. democrats are kind of intense on the issue. 74-4 they think it happened. and 22% democrats don't know but look on the republican side. 14% say yes, 52% of republicans say no and 34% of republicans don't know so you don't have the -- a big group of republicans are in the don't know a lot of intensity on the democratic side, lesser extent on the independent side. that comes up against lukewarm attit

steve liesman joins us with a special guest. >> thanks, becky. good morning.. a very smart person but on a 4.5 second delay from paris. kathryn let's go through this as quickly as we can. tell us about the outlook for growth in the u.s., in the world, and in europe. >> so what we're looking for in the global context is rising from 3% last year to 3.5% this year, and going to 3.6 by 2018. for the u.s. it's a little bit under 2% or a little bit above 2% and for europe a little bit under 2%. >> catherine have you guys dialled back your forecast for the u.s.? you were among the first to say there's good fiscal policies coming to the u.s., and we're dialling it up. and now you're saying fiscal policy will be neutral in 2017 and look for stimulus to the u.s. for fiscal policy in 2018. so are you down from where you were? >> so we first had some numbers come in that were a little bit weaker than we had hoped for. but it's also the case that the progress on making some of those changes in fiscal policy both on the spending and the tax side, those have been delayed, an

steve liesman, they think he's a big city mom, a fit and trendy mom.e head of household. >> i see that. he's maternal. >> you know what's funny about this, it's good for twitter to open this up and let people see the whole thing. i clicked on ads on facebook and bought stuff. >> i'm a big city mom, too. >> where i do go exactly? >> it's in your settings. >> right. go to settings and privatity, yo privacy, your twitter data and interest from partners. >> partners are advertisers. >> that's based not what you tweet, but what you buy and browse. >> they follow me on google. i have stuff on here i'm sure from my husband browsing. >> i don't know about this. body style, hybrid. >> i don't see joe buying a hybrid car. >> i think this is why twitter can't get out of its own way. >> what they want you to do is uncheck the boxes. >> they do? >> that's how they want you to help them or get out of it altogether. totally optd o out. >> i will do this during the commercial break. when we return, the most exciting day for me. national doughnut day. we're talking big