. >>> moments away from steve liesman sitting down with steve mnuchin. quick check on market moves in the energy patch arbob gasoline, the pump price, surging another 1212.5%, this is extending eight day rally for the price of gasoline as increased fuel shortages are weighed as the refineries and pipelines are struggling to get back on line after hurricane and now tropical storm harvey. >> those are the september unleaded gas futures that's looking like it may be a little bit supply constrained. october also up. so stretching into weeks when we might actually have a little bit of a, you know, mini shortages of gasoline in some markets. >> interestingly, we are seeing energy companies rally on the back of higher crude oil prices which is not a dynamic we have seen after the storm that put pressure on oil prices because the worry was the refineries shut down with demand -- decrease demand for oil, mike, that's sort of going the other way here >> it s arguably kind of got stretched. it was declining for days and recovering here right now which is helping th

steve liesman has more. >> by the president of the european central bank and governor of the bank of japan, janet yellen took what might be her last stroll. her term is up in january while has said she's under consideration for reappointment, her speech on financial regulatory reform here may not have helped her case. with a president who said he wants to do a quote big number on the dodd frank financial reform act, yellen cautioned against rolling back essential reforms from the crisis. she said they made the financial system more stable and improved the banks in economic growth. she said it may be more difficult for some to obtae ove was growing in line with the economy, contradicting a direct regular laces. she conceded that some reform frek, those about small and medium sized banks. in a cnbc interview, fed fed.nor disagreed t >> we need to protect the ponte reforms. higher capit liquidity, stress testing, resolution planning. but she said clearly, that we're committed to reviewing the reforms to see whether they're ektive and where they could be improved. she said that several t

i'm steve liesman. >> in flags has been soft for five month, raising questions about whether prices will rise enough to hit federal reserve's target level. labor department reports that consumer prices rose just .1 pest last month, less than the forecast. the cost of cell phones conti e continued to decline as did used cars and hotel rooms. some federal reserve officials called these transitory, but the ongoing softness is is pushing against the idea that sf-year low will help acceleration accelerate at it wants. >> and the head of the mipts fed says t report on consumer prices is yet another reason for the ce bank not to raise interest rates in the feonear future. neel kashkari wants to see clear evidence that inflation will rebound before deciding where to go. he has been the lone dissenter against the two interest rate hikes this year. >>> still ahead, are under the radar stocks your best bet for the long-term? we have a list of names. >>> anthem will put out of virginia's individual obamacare market. citing uncertainty from the federal government including the president's indecision

steve liesman has more. >> there's some excitement t st path after twooday's upward y forecast for this quarter. second quarter gdp revised up to 3%. the best showing since the first quarter of 2015. consumers spent more than reported and businesses invested more. cnbc's tracking of third quarter growth has estimates run ining a healthy 2.8 p% clip on average so far. we received better than expected jobs data today. the adp estimates 237,000 created in august. that's better than the 179,000 the street expects in friday's payroll report. of course, the impact of hurricane harvey and it's the reason one economist cited for not raising his outlook today. despite widespread pain and devastation in texas, economists expect modest gdp impact, at least from reports so far. i'm steve liesman. >> and while it is too early the to to estimate how much harvey might sh off the third quarter growth, rms says economic losses from harvey could be between 70 and $90 billion. and s&p is warning any government shutdown will hit growth in the fourth. n e rate iing agency's chief starte at the beginning of

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> americans may be spending more on line but they are also spending a lot at home depot. the world's largest home improvement retailer blew past earnings and revenue estimates. profits were up, sales were the best in its history. the company raised its guidance for the second time this year. that's pretty good given all of the trouble facing the retail sector recently. courtney reagan has more on what's working at home depot. >> reporter: consumers aren't buying as much in department stores or mall specialty retailers but home is where the spending is. >> this is one of the few areas where the consumer is spending. that goes back to home prices increased now so it gives the homeowner consumer confidence to invest in the home. the consumer is clearly choosing to spend in the home improvement category and not as aggressively as elsewhere. >> home depot had a strong quarter with sales in the key u.s. market strong. all sales increased in all markets. the largest home improvement retailer expects even stronger full year results. while th

steve liesman joins us now from jackson hole, wyoming. i want to see -- do we have a good shot? it's dark at this point. yeah beautiful shot yesterday, steve. unbelievable, that you had on that interview you know what you're doing good beat that you chose. >> reporter: well, you know, once a year -- other times, joe, the economists meet in some of the northeastern cities, they do that economics conference in january in chicago, meet in cleveland, but once a year they pick a good location you know, we always ged those people riding in, joe, who say that's a fake background. >> right. >> but it's real and beautiful so today they roll out the big guns the two most powerful central bankers in the world will be speaking here taking the podium at the kansas city fed annual symposium here janet yellen speaks at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. and that's followed by mario draghi who will take the stage at 3:00 p.m., both highly anticipated speeches and then after that of course we have a pretty good lineup here, a lot of the action could be right here on cnbc in less than an hour now we'll be

of barrons and forbes' top 100 financial advisers also with us, cnbc senior economics reporter, steve liesman. coming off of gdp number, the s&p 500 basically flat financials sees a little bit of strength nasdaq seeing the most up 0.6% and the dow is virtually unchanged. pete in gerrenajarian, when thar crossed today, what was your first reaction >> we're seeing the numbers continue to be fairly in line, fairly strong. we've been impressed by those, impressed by the earnings season take a look at what's really reacting to the financials once again. look at goldman sachs and jpmorgan they have been underperformers that's something that's a little bit concerning to me after listening to mr. buffett talk about bank of america, one of my larger holdings, i'm pretty excited about what he's had to say >> what's the reaction since we've had time to adjust these numbers, in terms of thewall street economist and how they see now q3 and how this impacts what they saw for q2 >> so technically, today's gdp number doesn't have a whole lot of information we'll get more information tomorrow, get the persona

my friend cnbc colleague steve liesman is joining me. you and i like talking about gdp growth. are formulas, there are ways of strengthening the economy and this raise act made us say that's not the right direction to increase the gdp growth to the 3, to the 4, 5, 6% that donald trump has talked about. >> sure. it's not that complicated, ali, when you and i talk about what makes the economy grow. it's how efficient you are and how much you're working. how much you're working is a function of the number of people you have or the number of hours they work. and according to the wharton study it would reduce the number of people. immigrants are a big part of the u.s. population growth and bringing that population growth down has the impact over time -- say over a decade by this study of bringing down gdp by 0.7 percentage points and reducing the number of jobs by 1.3 million over the ten year window so it would go the other way. there was some hope that maybe this proposal would come out in a way that would increase per capita gdp because you're letting in more skilled workers. wha

commends and more, let's send it to steve liesman with a special guest. >> thank you soech i'm inside the treasury department in the diplomatic room with the treasury secretary of the united states, steve mnuchin, thank you. >> thank you very much >> the president made it very empassioned plea yesterday, support for the tax package. but many on wall street are a little confused fwlauz is no package. can you explain to us why there is no package or details about rates and things like that coming from the white house? >> well, first of all, there absolutely is a package. i think, as you know, i have had the opportunity to work with the president on tax reform for over the last year. we started on the campaign we're looking at the issues. he did two major speeches during the campaign both in new york and detroit. and since january, i've been working with gary cohen and the leadership on this plan. so we have a very detailed plan. what yesterday was about and we couldn't be more excited that the president kicked off the campaign for tax reform is taking it to the people. and what the pres

tech names the nasdaq down 5 points the annual summit in jackson hole is sunday way and our own steve liesmane steve? >> hey, kelly. thanks a lot i like talking to you because you're like the person who would be the most jealous of me being here amidst all the economic wonks. >> i'm going to try not to jump in and let you do this you're always welcome, kelly let me ask the chief economist for the imf, thanks for joining us. >> hi, steve. >> one of the nice things, not just the mountains and the sun, the idea they are talking about global growth and the global economy seems to be growing and doing better i imagine you've taken out your pencils and erased a few mums-of-numbers and maybe put a few plus signs how strong is global growth? >> we'll be putting out a new forecast in five weeks of our annual meetings. the global economy is doing well i won't let anything slip about what our numbers are looking like because they are subject to change, but our last projection for 2017 was 3.5%. we're certainly not going to lower that number and certainly that it's broad-based in a way it hasn't been for

issue as well >> peter, thank you very much for that preview of jackson hole and all other things steve liesmanill be live for us at jackson hole with a good lineup. >>> still ahead on "worldwide exchange," a lot of d.c. drama more on the war of words between president trump and the republican party we're live in washington with the latest >> first, as we head out, another check on futures, pointing a bit higher after a third of a percent of declines yesterday. back on "worldwide exchange" in a couple minutes i love you, basement guest bathroom. your privacy makes you my number 1 place to go number 2. i love you, but sometimes you stink. febreze air effects doesn't just mask, it cleans away odors. because the things you love the most can stink. and try febreze small spaces to clean away odors for up to 30 days. breathe happy with febreze. whuuuuuat?rtgage offer from the bank today. you never just get one offer. go to lendingtree.com and shop multiple loan offers for free! free? yeah. could save thousands. you should probably buy me dinner. no. go to lendingtree.com for a new home loan or refina

steve liesman joins us now where are you? >> washington. >> oh, you're in d.c., okay. ike it when you're here, steve. >> oh, that's nice of you to say, joe >> i'm mostly sincere there, buddy. >> yeah. >> mostly. at least greater than half, and you are too. >> better than half is all you can hope for, 51% is what the -- look, let's talk about president trump yesterday, joe, who held a rally in missouri yesterday to promote tax reform but there's only one problem so far, the bill doesn't exist yet. >> this is our once in a generation opportunity to deliver real tax reform for everyday, hard-working americans, and i am fully committed to working with congress to get this job done. and i don't want to be disappointed by congress do you understand me do you understand? >> the administration has been working internally on a tax reform package but he's letting congress take the lead on it so treasury secretary steve mnuchin and gary cohn have been working with congressional leaders to craft this bill that they think can pass the president did lay out four core principles. one,

it's comic-con of the fed in jackson hole steve liesman is there in all his glory. k in with him next >> glory was one of the jumble words today. >> you solved that thing. plasy.did it eil >>> us more from steve's interview with esther george "squawk box" will be right back. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. the energy industry is closely watching tropical storm harvey today. i had no idea how much rain might fall on houston. it's headed towards the gulf coast. it could become a category 1 hurricane by tomorrow. it has the potential to become the first hurricane to hit landfall in texas in nine years and they could face as much as two feet of rain half of the capacity is in the gulf coast nearly a third of capacity appears to be in its path. not much reaction to energy prices so far. what kind of preparations could houston make for that if it's -- like what are the odds that it's going to be that bad and how is a city like that handling that amount of rain >> there's flooding, no doubt. that is a lot. >> by the way, crude pairly lower by 0.4 of 1%. >> get back out to

let's get to steve liesman at headquarters with that >> thank you st.is fed president jim bullard saying only sees very small inflationary effects from lower unemployment being the first fed official to speak since the friday jobs report unemployment ticked down unemployment does not signal higher inflation i want to show you a direct quote from the st. louis fed president. even if the u.s. unemployment rate declines substantially further, the effects on u.s. inflation are likely to be small. as a result, he thinks current policy rate -- the current policy rate is appropriate for the current economy and he questioned whether inflation is indeed turning towards the fed's it 2% target sarah, an hour ago we were asking the question how the fed would react to stronger job growth and lower employment rate, it would be spooked by inflation? bullard not taking much time in answering. an hour later, you know what not very much. the question is whether other fed officials feel the same way, sarah. >> yeah. so it begins now they really have to debate this inflati

back to you guys. >> at 3:30 thank you very much, steve liesman.hen we come back, it took 107 trading days to get to down to 22,000 what will be the catalyst for that >>> then amazon is hiring. the candidates are hiring up a live report is coming up >>> and later more on the apple's third quarter earnings, including tim cook's plan for the mother of all ai projects when "squawk alley" comes back you always pay your insurance on time. tap one little bumper, and up go your rates. what good is having insurance if you get punished for using it? news flash: nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today. liberty stands with you™ liberty mutual insurance. for years, centurylink has been promising fast internet to small businesses. but for many businesses, it's out of reach. why promise something you can't deliver? comcast business is different. ♪ ♪ we deliver super-fast internet with speeds of

. >> our steve liesman following the fed. more, let's bring in mike kiesel, managing director of global credit at pimpco to talk about this market. we've bun talking about how calm the credit market has been clearly it's reacted to the heightened volatility this week. do you see any big signs of cracks in the credit market that stock investors should be paying attention to >> well, i think one thing, sarah, and, you know, we have been at pimco derisking throughout this year as the credit spreads have tightened. we've been taking risk off the table. there's been a tremendous amount of issuance this year. there's been $847 billion just in the investment grade. so there is a lot of m & a deals hit the market and so what's happened is you had a lot of splupply hit the market we have taken our foot off the accelerator and held back. what happened with north korea, obviously, there's been a risk off move this week part of the widening and credit spreads has been that. and also just a significant amount of supply that's hit the mark

i'm steve liesman in jackson >>> still ahead, amazon is coming out swinging and that means cheaper items at whole foods starting monday. >>> shares of retailers that sell groceries fell after amazon said its acquisition of whole foods will close monday. and starting monday, customer is will see immediate -- like avocado, organic salmon and baby tuss. amazon said it will continue to lower prices and will eventually offer special discounts on prime members. the move could start a broader price war. shares of kroger, supervalue, costco and walmart fell dramatically. on a day that saw grocery stocks fall, some traditional retailers saw their stocks trading higher. it's not often that share of guess, perry ellis see double digit gain, but that's what we e saw today and bob pisani tells us if there's a glimmer of hope in the retail malaise. >> it's been a generally dismal retail earnings season, but in the last few days, several retailers have reported earnings better than expect ed. they beat guidance. affirmed guidance. some glimmers of hope. why? because there's some indication that after a

as steve liesman tells us, when it comes to a growth effect, there are ways the president quarter into his presidency, how much credit can president trump really take for the economy? economists say not very much. there could be some ways on the margins he's helped and others where he may have hurt. most view the better growth numbers as a bounce back from the weak first quarter and e are early days for the president to influence the economy. >> in terms of the impact of the presidency, our impact has been around for 2018 around 2%. about 2.3, now, 2.1. i could say nothing's has changed much. maintaining ilts 2% average while the rest of the wo here some of the positive and negative effects economists are citing. the positive of deregulation, stock market gains leading to wae l increase in business investments but the negatives are policy uncertainty, the aca repeal failure, which has pushed back expectations for tax cuts, immigration and trade are two policies of the trump administration not well liked by economists. the end of rising regulatory costs under president obama could be ha

steve liesman looks for answers. >> government data on friday showed a strong 209,000 jobs created in july. but could it have, shouit have more? repor fro the national fed kags of independent business suggests maybe i. suggests small businesses have a hard time finding workers. loo said they couldn't find the workers they were after. why not? a lack of job skills followed by poor work history, english and math skills along with problems with the legal status. >> we would have a lot more people hired if we could find workers that matched the requirements of the employers. job openings for us are running at 43-year high levels, so we're looking for workers and these are the issues that seem to block their getting employed e. >> beyond resume problems, there were what you could call personal problems. 14% of employers said workers were looking for too much money. 12% said job prospects had an attitude problem and 18% lacked social skills. another problem that's getting more and more attention, 10% of employers said candidates were rejected because of drug use. there is a limited role for

steve liesman wonders whether it's time f economists to start rethinking how they make their jobs estimates. >> reporter: job growth keeps coming in better than expected raising the question about whether it's time to change what is expected. last week's report of 209,000 jobs created in july which surprised markets should have been anything but a surprise. five of the last seven reports have been over 200,000, and 13 of the past 24. and wall street keeps missing these strong reports. underestimating them every time they spike north of 200,000. here's the reason. these numbers are double what most economists think is the steady state for job growth in the u.s. goldman sachs has seen the light. its economists wrote over the weekend, "we have made a sizable downward revision to our forecast for the unemployment rate by the end of 2018 to 3.8% from 4.1% previously." the good news is, it appears that many americans who were sidelined in the wake of the recession have come back do work the past several years. the bad news, if unemployment rate goes too low, it could spark wage inflation and ther

bring with treasury secretary steve mnuchin picking up president trump's baton who spoke to our steve liesman earlier with hoy lights of that conversation. >> thank you very much u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin sitting down exclusively with cnbc saying the detailed plan cometh despite criticism that president trump was promoting a plan without detail. mnuchin says there is a plan, and it will be released within the next few weeks. >> originally our goal had been august unfortunately, things got delayed a bit, but we're on a track to get this done by the end of the year, so you're going to see the details come out later this month it's going to go through a committee process, and we expect the house and senate will get this to the president to sign it this year and could be be more excited about the progress we've made. >> they are aiming for a revenue neutral bill, one that doesn't increase or decrease the deficit, but that would depend on how much growth the joint tax committee ascribes to the tax cuts, and that is a controversial issue that needs to be debated. mnuchin playing down ap

melissa, we're looking at the euro seema, thank you >> a slightly read steve liesman joins us with thels. >> at 188,0078,000, that's stila strong reading june payrolls revised upward by gdp, so that's 191,000 for june. the good sector in july up a bit, but services doing stronger at 174,000 there's the non-farm payroll estimates which we get on friday wall street is looking for a decline from the strong june report of 220 so any number over 100,000 that could be enough to bring down the unemployment rate here's where the jobs were pretty broad-based here. manufacturing having a bad month, according to adp. we'll see if that's right on friday >>> warehouse versus retail jobs, it looks more and more jobs that helped consumers in brick and mortars have become order-filling jobs in warehouses that leads us to our next story about massive hiring by amazon. >> that's right, the lines have been long all day amazon have been accused, of course of selling jobs, but today trying to put thousands of people to work they are holding 12 job fares across the country, where dana rebossa is standing by

. >>> on that note, don't miss steve liesman's sit down with treasury secretary steve mnuchin today at a.m. eastern time >> the question for the markets, how much is priced in. of all the political -- >> it's become a show-ame story >> it's the most important for the stock market versus healthcare reform, which could have had a positive effect, but not near as much as a corporate tax cut would. i think the market is pricing in a 10%, 15% chance. if we get something, you get see a big reaction >> small caps, people say watch those. those are the domestically exposed -- not the international, multinational companies that would benefit from a lower corporate tax rate, they're plat for the year. >> watch banks banks pay full rates, so few companies do, banks are near 28%. it's up near the top, if you get a decent cut they benefit significantly. >> same with retailers which have high exposure to the u.s. technology is an interesting one to watch they would benefit from repatriation if we get that. it's good that the president is talking about it i remember cramer said yesterday, as long as

steve liesman is here.the core reading. 1.7 and fed rate hike odds are dimming. >> i've been doing this too many years to argue with your statistics you're right fed officials have been forecasting this rebound on inflation to start the rate hikes again. have to wait a little bit longer consumer inflation coming in lower. unchanged month on month from june missing the core unchanged at 1.7 fed wants to see this number well above 2 to hit its target softer inflation data and comments from fed officials good for the stock market they produced again for a december rate hike >> we keep under shooting our inflation target wage growth is low why do we need to cool the economy down when we're not seeing these pressures building. we have the luxury of wasting to see what actually happens. >> reporter: waiting is what the fed thinks the market will do. the chance of a december rate hike we have it at 22% that's down quite a bit. different from the cme which is higher now to be sure some economists join with fed offi

steve liesman's giving me the old -- >> like hurry up >> go to the camera.hat's interesting. >> this is the universal sign for hurry up steve liesman looks at me and goes like this, it means hurry up or you're a hamster on a wheel, sullivan steve liesman, give us the information. >> maybe the latter. no you're right this is a cool number. it's the second cool number we've had. this week when it comes to inflation and the ppi coming in lower than expected. when i look at the individual components i see mixed but a bunch of negatives there i'll give you some of the negatives that were in there we've got to talk to phil about this new and used car prices calling 0.4% that is a specific interest to brian sullivan, who is always in the market for a car immediatelyal foeing the moments that he bought a car as well as my brother. medical care up -- folks we've had these two things that have depressed the cpi. telecommunications and physician services physicianselveses picked up a little bit which one is that? that's the year over year falling at a 10% rate. it's so

and larry glazer is here, managing partner and portfolio manager at may flower advisers on our steve liesmann that, steve, you know, just kind of pick up on the point evan was making. we got some evidence on how strong the economy is this morning. the jobs picture, at least, looked pretty good, but -- but, you know, i don't know whether to trust this atlanta fed number about whether we'll have over about% gdp >> you know, we're looking around 2.5 on the cnbc wrap it up day which puts together a bunch of tracking numbers out there. i think the job numbers we've had are consistent with certainly 2.5% i would think that that would be quite good, so i think the underlying economy seems to be reasonably strong, and i'm kind of in the process, kelly, of changing my view of how many jobs we should be creating here. i know a lot of fed folks -- >> i know where you're going at some point maybe we're only adding in the 100s, if that, and it's a sign that we're strong, not weak. >> not only that, but, you know, all the fed folks said we should be creating just 100,000, should be equaling the growth in

where does steve liesman stand >> i am in the process of trying to figure out the literature in thiscts to it. the first thing is the mathmatic accounting aspect of it which immigration is a big part of population growth. labor force growth, which is a big part of growth if you reduce that, most people think you would reduce overall potential growth the other aspect which is interesting is this question about upgrading the skills. >> right. >> upgrading the skills could increase gdp per capita, on a per capita basis, which is a good thing you bring in better skilled, higher skilled immigrants, that would be more helpful. the other question, which i can't get my brain around because there's literature on both sides is whether or not immigrants exert downward pressure on native wages there is some interesting literature on this that was cited by the white house yesterday but it's also in shocks the syrian refugees in europe, this is what was studied by this harvard kennedy school economist and there's some criticism i'm trying to get my brain around. it stands to reason somewhat in cer

that clear i think that's what could happen under this set of circumstances that we outlined >> steve liesmanill sit down with treasury secretary and the debt ceiling will come up. that happens at 11:30 a.m. eastern time tomorrow. you won't want to miss coming up, harvey still reeking havoc in texas adam jonas will tell us what it will mean for the auto industry. plus, the battle of sneaker stocks heating up and kevin durant has some words steph cur curry's choice of footwear >>> harvey making its second landfall today the flooding likely destroying thousands cars, much like we saw with another hurricane five years ago, sandy phil lebeau is breaking down the effect actually, harvey's effect on the auto industry >> and here's the latest estimate we heard from cox automotive industry. they run auto auctions they said we've done math here there are about 250,000 roughly speaking vehicles that were scrapped during sandy. the estimate is that it could be as many as a half million vehicles that are scrap due to hurricane harvey and the flooding look, every video i've seen still picture that i've se

steve liesman hat full story >> reporter: when the fed gathered a decade ago, they worried about a recession and glooming global crisis circumstances are different and somewhat bet their yebetter thi year but issues are still there. instead of buying assets and cutting interest rates, the fed is hiking and nearing a decision to sell assets perhaps as soon as september >> you saw the minutes of the last meeting markets are expecting any time now looking at september and out. that is always a function of what issues are going on when we meet to make that decision but i think the setup is there describing how that would happen and the approach that the committee would take. >> reporter: but there's still considerable uncertainty complicated the outlook is a potential government shutdown next month that could give the fed pause if it really happens president trump has not decided who he will pick to head the central bank so this could be janet yellen's last meeting as fed chair unless she's reappointed. also unclear is whether congress and the president will succeed at delivering fiscal stimulus

he's also taking credit for the economy and that's where steve liesman comes in i can't speak for youe're not mainstream which is fine with me. >> perfectly fine. mr. president, we are -- we are talking about not only this market rally all the time. >> and the growth numbers. >> pretty good jobs numbers. >> dissect this a little bit which is what we do around here, mr. president. just two quart nears your presidency, how much credit can president trump really take for the economy? economists say not very much, though there could be some ways on the margin that he has helped and other way he's hurt. let's go through it all. most economists view the second quarter numbers from a bounce back from the weak first quarter. jpmorgan says the u.s. has actually been an underperformer globally maintaining that 2% average over the first half while the rest of the world has really accelerated and the u.s. growth numbers is about what was expected before the election here are some of the potential positive and negative effects mentioned by economists. on the positive side, deregulation the stock m

thanks so much, michael and julia and our own steve liesman.cks might be hitting record highs, but on ""squawk box"" alan greenspan warned the bond bubble might be about to break shannon is joining us and bill stone, global chief investment strategist at pnc asset investment shannon, i'll kick it off with you. do you think there is a bubble this is a run in bonds that i think nobody at the start of this year would have ever guessed would have happened. >> right i think the expectation has been for several years that we were going to see rates rise. and the reality is we are at the end of a very protracted bond bubble and with rates where they -- as low as they have been, the likelihood is that they're going to continue to rise however, there's a couple of mitigating circumstances as we've seen yields creep higher, we've seen a large group of buyers, whether they're institutional buyers trying to offset liabilities with buyers outside of the u.s. who are still looking at yields that are much lower than those offered here in the united states for

steve liesman is out in that area and joins us with two more special guests >> reporter: good morningi'm here with two special guests i'm here with jacob frenkel, the vice chairman -- excuse me chairman of jpmorgan international and holds the lifetime record of attending jackson hole 33 years in a row. and then catherine mann chief economist for the oecb jacob your reaction to janet yellen's speech. what did you take away from it >> it was a very thorough speech it provided us with good historical background of why are we are where we are. how dangerous the system was in. and how much the fed has done in order to strengthen the system from my perspective it was a speech that says, ladies and gentlemen, i remember very well from where we are, from where we came and we are determined not to allow this kind of thing to happen again she also reminded us that excess is part of the scenery and we should watch for them. but for me i also saw there implicit statement for monetary policy because basically she said the system is now much stronger than what it was before >> she can go ahead -- >

. >> i'm saying of course this is what we're looking for >> any way, looking forward to that steve liesman there throughout the day for us. let's look at the picture around the world, asia up 2%, shanghai, 1.2% for hong kong samsung slightly weighing on korea's index. a big part of the index, down 0.7% on the news that one of the family-controlling stake has been jailed for five years more than expected >> i think it's 15% of korea's gdp is sam supg sasung sales >> i think it's about 20% of the index as well. used to be 20% i don't have the latest figure. >>> european markets are higher. they have been about flat this week ftse up about a percent on the softer pound ending on a just positive note for europe >>> the dollar is little changed this morning against the euro and against the japanese yen it's trading just below 118 against the euro pretty much flat this morning. it's trading just below 110 against the yen. also not moving a whole lot. the pound is getting a bit of a burst, but still weaker for the week 1.282. as for gold prices, gold has had a strong few months. it looks set to b

. >> we have a debate here on the set and steve liesman entered into the debate yesterday when we werey and what the policy implications have been in terms of what's happening in the real economy. when you look at what's going on in washington, relative to the jobs, is there any correlation you see? >> there seems to be if you looked at where the loosening of regulations, in places where trump and the administration are saying they want to invest, those are places that are hiring. >> right >> so i think it makes sense if you think about if you're an employer in one of these areas last year you wouldn't have been hiring wouldn't be sure if he was going to be sitting in the white house. now you have some certainty. you have a feeling you know what's going to happen over the next couple of years i don't think any of us necessarily do but it makes sense that you would feel more power to start hiring. >> dan roth, thank you >> thank you >> good to see you >> all right coming up, america's largest auto retailer set to report. we will bring you the numbers from auto nation also a first on cnb

president trump's impact on growth our resident economic reporter steve liesman has a rundown of the a.m. and later, lyft is getting a disney styled makeover that's why you're hearing that sound track in the background. minivans as in minnie mouse. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. check out the shares of sprint the wireless services provider earned five cents a share for its latest quarter compared to forecast of one cent of a loss revenue came in above estimates. sprint added 61,000 net wireless subscribers. i saw this in the rundown and said oh, probably about sears because sprint would have been fon so it shows you that you're not -- >> not sears >> got to keep on top of these symbols and the changes. when an individual -- when a single letter comes up -- >> it's in demand. >> nickel -- >> "a" with allegheny. they're all different now. >> "w" -- >> we're in a f.a.n.g. world now. >> you're aging yourself >> i know. >> we're going to talk e-commerce right now e-commerce start-up says it has a new weapon to take on the likes of amazon. artificial intelligence bulk item retailer box r

steve liesman is back with reaction to the numbers. going to last, or set up for by the last administration which is it? >> i think you have a third joe. why don't you just say it. >> i'm trying to speak for you >> why do you speak for me >> were you -- >> speaking for myself >> you and zandi >> i have not shown any -- >> make it ease whier for you. >> degreesing the runway here we go these is all president obama -- no, i have no idea consumer spending ticked up by half a point durable goods -- they bought more durables than originally estimated. more nondurables business investment also ticking up look, i said all along, if there's a trump effect it's going to come i think principally through the business confidence channel, which could boost business spending. structures were up revised up again equipment revised up a little bit, intellectual property revised up housing, a little bit less negative exports a little bit less than originally estimated and government purchase just want to see what happened to inventories. haven't got a c

last weekend is a bit of a surprise steve liesman is joining us. >> we'll talk about two pieces of good economic data that we got this morning job opening rising $6.2 million small business in july rising for the first time and jumping 105.2. it came after the healthcare repeal and tax reform could be stalled that came along hiring time and expectations for sales and profits. you can see the peek at 105.9. overall, what's happening on main street must be good to support owner optimism given the upbeat news and strong jobs reported, is it time to raise our expectations for jobs growth over the past seven months payroll exceeded 200,000 five times. more than half the time and wall street have substantially under estimated those numbers almost every time by an archverage of 46,000 >> check this out. we went back and look, thanks to our friends at kenshaw on jobs, the dow joness gained 99 pioints. the markets like strong jobs growth today's data suggests big numbers can be more in the future with the major question, do we have the workers to fill these jobs >> i want to see what it says. >>

. >> steve liesman is here we have conversations of this of the industry and athletics and all kindsthings, favoring one gender over another or ethnicity over another >> sure, we keep on saying demographics is domesticiestiny. this conversation in some way is irrelevant in the following way. should you be more diverse the answer is in the sense that more female graduates and more non white graduates of the level a of bachelors and masters level if you are not making your workplace one that's suitable for women or suitable for non whit whites, you are limiting the pool of available candidates the diversity question as far as i am concerned is not a matter of personal or political choice, it is a business choice. obviously, it could be a personal choice but it is a business choice in the following way. >> it is dispute inside the following sense. you do not see in some places of the effects to make the business and environment more friendly. we see women organized and group themselves in to industries where women canorganize the group themselves the way they want you see things like ve

. >>> we head to a quick break don't miss steve liesman's interview with stephen ma nuchin' on the nextand lululemon reporting after the bell don't miss our interview with the ceo tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m. ete o"sawon e reet."n quk i know when i hand them the keys to their first car it's gonna be scary. but i also know that we're gonna have usaa insurance for both my boys. it's something that they're not even gonna have to think of. it's just gonna be in the family. we're the tenneys and we're usaa members for life. oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. >>> welcome back out sides move on the energy market that the largest u.s. refinery may be shutting down for up to two weeks. this as flooding con

eastern breaking right here on cnbc steve liesman joining us with what to expect from that jobs numbervery excited, brian we have new data an hour ago that adds to the other reports suggesting tomorrow's jobs report could be healthy. the national federation of independent business is 19% of those surveyed up four points for june and the highest level we've seen since june 2006. more than half, 27%, say they increased their workers compensation here's the other stuff we have jobless claims are down and ism manufacturing index is pretty healthy. the negatives, the ism services number and the workforce where are the workers going to come from? here's the numbers we're working for. nonfarm and average hourly wages and unemployment given what demographic growth is, average wages seem healthy at 0.3 and unemployment ticking down again to 4.3% with a labor pool, businesses having a hard time finding workers macroeconomic advisers just minutes before i came on air ran the bill through the model after ten years, the raise act would lower gdp by 1.5% and wages would be 0.3% higher >> who said th

what are economists saying steve liesman joining us >> yeah, suddenly economists have a lot more thanen is the next fed rate hike going to be. geopolitical risks have joined the list of uncertainties along the risk of a government shutdown, chance that any meaningful tax reform will happen and all the other risks seem trivial by comparison. if north korea can tletsden world trade even with conventional weapons, it can threaten the global economy. the global financial system is vulnerable to that same disruption of trade. jpmorgan putting out their gee's political anxiety index which shows different spikes in the past several years you can see there, desert storm is one, bosnia, september 11th, all of the indicators that say the level of geopolitical risk spiking now with this north korea situation. and jpmorgan has what it calls rules of geopolitical risks. one, it's the rule not the exception. two, it's delivered four of the six of the past six recessions mostly through the oil price conduit. and the short term reaction in markets is big, but retracement happens within a few weeks or

. >> steve liesman is joining us now. >> yes, whatever motivated, it could have been their moral stancee a look. black and hispanic workers steadily rising. 40 years later, nearly 30% in a market where employers are complaining about. a quick look at the data, no negative on the impact on the employment rate. white employment rate goes up and down with the economy and it is now of a ten year low the job market focus is not easier on gains. >> thank you very much >> here is what's coming up on power lunch. jc penney's stock is at a 40 year low the company's ceo is joining us next, is a turn around possible? and we'll talk about ken frazier's decision of quitting the manufacturer council ♪ cameras. introducing the newly redesigned gla suv. at a price that'll make you feel like you've gotten away with something. the 2018 gla. lease the gla250 for $359 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. track your pack. set a curfew, or two. make dinner-time device free. [ music stops ] [ music plays again ] a smarter way to wifi is awesome. introducing xfinity x

doesn't give juice part of the way is why we have 6.9% business investment in the numbers that steve liesman told us about earlier. >> if you look at the amount of money that the u.s. corporations pay about $400 billion annualized rate versus $1.8 trillion in profit. >> look at all the junk they do to -- all the garbage. the little guys don't. >> they won't get one. >> but it's still going to be paid for of course the speech from the president doesn't mean - >> they have to avert a shutdown. >> we have to leave it there. >> such downers today. >> we have just been following the ins and outs we'll wait to see what the president has to say here's what's coming up on "power lunch." the president set to make that major speech on tax reform we'll bring it to you live as soon as it happens. >>> plus why hurricane harvey could have a devastating impact on farmers in texas and throughout the country >>> and talk to the manager of a store who is literally taking boats off the shelves and giving them to emergency workers for rescue efforts. >>> let's go out to brian sullivan. >> yeah, speaking of wate

this hour but how much credit should we get for those improvements our chief economics reporter steve liesman has been digging into that question >> reporter: economist say the president can't very much but some ways on margin he's helped in other ways than he's hurt most economists view the second butt better growth number has a bounce back from the weak first quarter and say these are early days for a president to influence the economy. the u.s. really has been an underperformer globally, maintained 2% average while the rest of the world has accelerated and the numbers we are talking about now is what we expected before the election some of the positives and negatives that the economists have been citing first, deregulation. certainly haven't been any more regulation and the idea that some areas are deregulated could help business. stock market gains have led to a wealth effect that could be worth as much of a quarter percentage point of gdp over the next year. confidence and maybe more business investment. on negative side, policy uncertainty, the aca repeal failure has led back to push ba

hisey, chief investment officer for global wealth and investment management at bank of america and steve liesman i want chris to respond, did you see the atlanta fed, gentlemen, yesterday 3.7. is that where gdp is >> that's where his thing is. >> how are they on the high side >> they're on the high side, yeah we're on 2.8 which is the average of all the tracking forecasts on the street. there are different error rates at different times of the cycle. they have their own model. the reason we do the rapid update is because we don't think anybody has a lock look, 2.8 is a good number what are you looking at, becky >> philly fed is there i want to tell you the numbers 18.9 versus 19.5 for july. >> i think 16 was expected rick had no reason to apologize because the number wasn't there. it's still not on my screen here >> love means never having to say you're sorry anyway. >> he does such a good job, he does math on the fly which i will not do on television. >> chris, are we in a 3% world temporarily? >> temporarily i think is the key here there isn't one big trend that is completely sustainable like

steve liesman will be there with full coverage and interviews >>> walmart is teaming up with google toake on amazon the retailer is getting into the voice shopping market. google is offering hundreds of thousands of walmart items on its google assistant platform starting next month. court court wi >>> lowe's is reporting. we've been waiting for it for a little while it's still early looks like 1.68 versus estimates of $1.61 that would be up above where the street was by 6 cents, 7 cents $19 billion in sales, right in line total sales for the fiscal year are seen up 5% up 3.5% same-store sales are seeing for the year. operating margin up 80 basis points on face value that looks good. i don't know what estimates are. fiscal year number, 420 to 430 and i'm looking at 462 >> oh. >> that's guiding down >> that's what it looks like >> yeah. >> so they earned $1.68, seven cents ahead for the fiscal second quarter left with fiscal third and fourth you're looking for 1.07 in the third quarter and 1.89 in the fourth -- so on an adjust the basis, it's not 1.68, it's 1.57. >> it's a miss >> it's a

half is a terrible idea for the job market over the longer haul >> finally we have the professor steve liesmane's got 20 seconds before the number hits the tape >> 183 with 170 on the private sector and three month average could go either way but average 13 >> and wages >> i don't do wages or unemployment data. >> what do you mean you don't do wages? >> it's not on the model just got a model for plus or minus 50,000 on the jobs number. the best i can hope for. >> okay we're seconds away from that report. hampton's here standing by he's got the numbers >> 209,000 july nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 4.3%. average hourly earnings increased 0.3% 2.5% year over year. private sector job growth. in july, plus 205,000 jobs the revisions for may and june a net increase of 2,000 jobs over what had been previously reported how did we get to that 4.3% unemployment rate? employment increased by 345,000. unemployment only increased by 4,000. the u-6 rate, the so-called real unemployment rate, unchanged at 8.6% big job gains in three major categories, in the month of jul

. >>> the economy adding 209,000 jobs in july that report stronger than expected steve liesman joins t more on the numbers and how wall street is reacting thus far. steve? >> good morning, andrew. the jobs numbers coming in better than expected once again, and wall street starting to think maybe it's time to change what it expects. most economists and fed officials believe trend growth somewhere between 100,000 and 150,000. let's look at the reality. the last several years, by the way, we have been the three-month average is 195 the twelve month average 179 24 month average 192,000 five of the last seven jobs reports have been above 200,000. goldman sachs writing over the weekend, quote, we have made a sizable downward revision to our forecast by the end of 2018 to 3.8% from 4.1% previously. as good as the jobs numbers are, the question is whether or not they could be stronger a report from the national federation of independence business shows 87% of the small businesses are looking to hire says they couldn't find workers. why not? take a look. we call them resume problems lack of jo

steve liesman. >> here's what i'm thinking this morning, melissa i'm thinking when it comes to the economict >> uh-huh. >> but it makes sense eventually and what makes sense here is we couldn't understand, we had more people working, we had some rise in wages, and consumer spending was uniformly weak it made no sense plus you had these buoyant confidence numbers it made no sense so what happened eventually they came around. they did the 0.5% revision in june makes more sense and this strength in july, which was expected, that you were going to have a bounceback up 0.6 a little bit -- no question that that could eventually be revised. it goes along with the story that we did 2.5, 2.6% in the second quarter and what's nice about this number is it confirms the expectation that you're going to have a somewhat above trend third quarter as well. we were running on the cnbc wrap it up date up 2.8% motor vehicles was strong as rick said. even department stores, and you know things are good when department stores do well. up 1% along with the nonstore retail which always do well, up 1.3% i think tha

cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman says we should focus on the job supply. >> critical ton in a run of extraordinarily strong job growth five of the past seven months have been north of 200,000 each month. so how long can it last? is there a limitless supply of workers willing and ready to come back to work? barclays with a report over the weekend suggesting there may be more workers out there than previously thought the answer is critical of the fed policy but the fed thinks labor markets are tight could increase rate hikes to stave off wage inflation or let the job market run barclays says there's been a surge of prime working-age women coming back into the workforce the group's participation rate has risen by two points over the past two years barclays says what are you doing? what do you think? barclays says better wages especially for the least educated groups have brought these women back in to the workforce. so thank heaven for prime-age women is what that suggests. labor force participation from prime-age workers is rising indicating more slack in the labor markets