we'll find out around 3:00. >> and the scoring will show that 15% will pay for itself quickly, steve liesman >> we'll talk about that another time. >> noted noted. larry, steve, thank you guys good to see you both when we come back the president takes aim at facebook as the social network pledges millions to support federal education programs twitter doubles down on character count. details on that. then later risks to the rally as the dow eyes five straight down sessions, although right now up 15 back in a minute >>> tech continues to feel pressure over size, lack of oversight and ad policies among other issues this morning president tweets, facebook was always anti-trump, networks anti-trump. hence, fake news "new york times" apologized and "washington post" were anti-trump collusion. ft reports days away from handing lawmakers 3,000 russian bought ads leegd up to the election joining us to talk about that zillows ceo. >> thanks for having me. >> how do you see facebook's playbook taking shape in the comes months. >> people that run comes, public or private, especially private, they do hav

steve liesman as the details. >> we're bringing it from 1% up to 4%. i think ked can go higher. i think you can go to 5% or 6%. >> reporter: that was candidate trump extolling the benefits of his proposed policy, but eight months into his economy, many economists don't think that's the case. growth this year and next could be just 2.3%. far short of candidate and president trump's estimates. the total effect of fiscal policies, economists say they add just 0.25% to growth. >> if we get a tax reform that's revenue neutral, doesn't add significantly to budget deficits and does lower corporate tax rates, then over the next ten years, yeah, roughly at most as quarter point -- >> even conservative economists don't see much up side. >> if you look at the economic, you can get to the upper bound over the long term. it's rare that something as pure as those things gets through a congress by the nature of the political process, so you start scaling back from there. >> much depends on how much tax cuts boost deficits. they could end up raising interest rates or strengthening the glare if

>> for more, we are joined by wells fargo senior investment strategist as well as our very own steve liesmansteve, is thewhite house right to see very solid job momentum continuing in this month of august >> yeah. i think so i think it's well to put the numbers in perspective the best estimates throughout are that the workforce is growing by 80,000. if you told me the number was 100,000, i'd say it's a good number it's the numbers over 200,000 that i think are kind of out of sample where they should be. they've been very strong lately running over 200,000 150 is in a very good spot and i've been trying to kind of convince the market that these kind of numbers are good numbers. they raise the expectation and put nem a place and the politicians want the 200 number. 150 is a good number especially when you have good dif fusion across industries a lot of industries gain jobs. just not as many as previous months. >> so we get to hear what the white house thinks about the number we don't get to hear what the federal reserve thinks about the number that's one of the challenges for investors these d

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> many on wall street were also watching events at united nations. in his first address to the u.n., president trump threatened to, quote, totally destroy north korea if the u.s. is forced to defend itself or its allies in east asia. >> rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime. the united states is ready, willing, and able, but hopefully this will not be necessary. that's what the united nations is all about. that's what the united nations is for. >> the north korean ambassador to the u.n. walked out before president trump's speech began. >>> the senate easily passed a nearly $700 billion defense bill late yesterday. the measure would put the u.s. armed forces on track for a bigger budget than at any time during the wars in iraq and afghanistan. the bill calls for expanded missile defenses in response to those escalating tensions with north korea. >>> and a new effort to reform the health care system is gaining steam in the senate. the graham/cassidy bill would repeal the infrastructure of the affordable care

we have larry kudlow and steve liesman. steve, to you first. part of her remarks and what she said in the q&a was about inflation and inflation seems to sort of be the pivot here in terms of whether or not she toox with the set pace. >> i'm having a bunch of arguments with people over, was this a hawkic or dovish speech >> that's why i ask you. >> here's the dovish case. the dovish case, she went further than shae's gone before in entertaining the possibility that the fed has the inflation dynamic wrong and may have to respond. >> best part of her testimony. best >> okay. that's a dovish -- okay, thank you, larry are you doing running commentary on us -- >> no, lay it all out. >> i'm joking with my good friend larry kudlow. the hawkish part of this, she goes through this rather ornate and complicated explanation and theorizing about how inflation could be wrong and may change policy, but ultimately concludes on the current policy. and says, despite all of this, we're going to stick with gradual rate hikes and i'm worried about the idea that we

steve liesman joins us what with what we can expect from today's announcements. ing. >> good morn welcome to a day in history in the ongoing saga the fed expected to announce it will unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet which, as you remember, swollen with treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to drive down interest rates in the crisis will this be, as the feds suggest, as boring as watching paint dry or a potential slow motion train wreck which some are warning about financial markets and the economy. here are the two arguments here. on the train wreck side, unforeseen consequences and hurting emerging market debt the fed not in there buying treasury and the treasury issuing more of their stuff. the wrong policy for low-growth environment along with other central banks eventually coming around to tightening steven stanley writes, "with so much excess liquidity sloshing around, the first $100 billion balance sheet reduction may have little effect. eventually the cuts in liquidity will bite. it is slow and gradual and telegraphed. you sell it in better times

steve liesman will talk to william dudley tomorrow at 1600 cet. that article also says that maybe janet yellen is back in the running. it seems like trump likes her after heavily criticizing her on the campaign trail for keeping interest rates too low we'll see. >>> facebook turned over information about u.s. election ads to investigators probing russian meddling in american politics the company revealed it found an operation likely based in russia spent $100,000 on political ads with what it called divisive social and political messages. facebook says thousands of ads and hundreds of fake accounts were active around the u.s. presidential campaign. >>> south korea deployed more thaad anti-missile systems in ab attempt to protect itself against growing threats from north korea, in a move which has angered china. russian president vladimir putin says the north korea problem can be solved through diplomatic channels and says what he calls military hysteria is counterproductive. that as pressure rises on president xi to do more on the tensions chery k

our economists reporter, steve liesman, from the federal reserve in washington. is this all about size and pace? >> yes you could say that, brian. with no double onton i'm sure. the fed announcing plans to reduce a key financial crisis and begin to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet there is more with the 2:00 p.m. statement which comes with a new round of economic forecast the fed is expected to announce that balance sheet reduction beginning in october second, do fed members continue to forecast a third rate hike this year with some in the market have dialed out the expectations are that they produced their forecast for the long run fed funds race down from 3%. in addition to these policy questions, the issue of how the fed incorporates the economic effects of the twin hurricanes into its outlook and whether the fed continues to see inflation returning to its 2% goal or is it less confidence now i have been go the recent down side and prices we have had one more thing finally, how low does the fed believe unemployment rate can go most of all, as brian said,

in the meantime, ecb president mario draghi is holding a news conference steve liesman has been listeninge mentioned the exchange rate. he said volatility in the exchange rate is a source of uncertainty, something that requires monitoring for possible effects on the medium-term outlook for price stability, so not all that exciting now. but there was some movement in the euro it spiked up, spiked down and then spiked back up headed towards the 1.20 area. he said a very substantial degree of stimulus is still needed this autumn we will decide the calibration of policy instruments, that is what they're going to do next year when the current stimulus or plan for quantitative easing is supposed to end at the end of this year. as i reported from jackson hole, this was not the date they were going to announce it, october is more likely and almost certainly now. but it's a little weird that he's going to be announcing this ending the qe while they revise down the forecast for inflation because of the currency. also he's still saying, becky, quote, a very substantial degree of stimulus is still ne

steve liesman just joined our table. is the fed going to screw this up, because, i mean, that's about the only thing that can possibly happen is that they raise rates too fast. >> when hi listened carefully to what steve said, that's exactly how you summarized it, what's unexpected, and i think that kwhaurter point is about a 50-50 probability. one of the things that's happened in the last couple of days, you talked about the reflation trade at the top and the commodities. had the market come back in terms of yields and probabilities. the probability of that rate hike in december was below 3%. >> we moved is a basis points or something like that in a week. >> good long way. >> the conversation was, okay. looks like we're going mow two and then what happens to the some, and now we're at 2.to and the rally hats resumed >> did you play basketball in high school or college >> i did, too, believe it or not and i wasn't very good at it when you knows a guy goes left -- >> i did play basketball the pot calling the kettle small.

into that though >> i do think there's something going on in gold we had a great discussion with steve liesmanterday. we asked him, are you concerned that this administration talks about the dollar as much as they do we had a great conversation. i am it's clear that president trump wants a weaker u.s. dollar weaker u.s. dollar will be good for gold the dollar index is pushing up i think there's a stout rally going on in gold. >> it sounds like it's not because of geopolitical risks. >> that's just the cheri on top. >> the geopolitical risk >> yes >> swreep seen the numbers out that we are seeing premiums go up this is not unsurprising, oftentimes when commodities start to rally, they start to anticipate higher amounts going forward. it certainly has the ability to move and probably more sharply than it has. >> randomly this is the anniversary. the peak in gold was in 2011, it was september 2nd. here we are friday, september 1st, 2017, and we've came down a lot, right, 1877 all the way to 1129 now we're back up to 1330. it's got momentum to it. whether it's because they're never going to raise

af a percent from last week's estimates and a day after the president was touting tax reform, steve liesman sat down with the treasury secretary, who said there is a plan and it would be released in the next few weeks. that president trump promoted a plan without dedale, said thereto a plan and it would be released within the next few weeks. >> originally, our goal had been august. unfortunately, things got derayed a bit. but we'r tra to get this done by the end of the year. so you're going to see the details come out later this t committee process. and we expect the house and the senate will get this to the president to sign this year and we couldn't be more excited about progress we've made. >> hbs the administration is aiming for a revenue neutral bill, one that w but said it wo depend on how much growth the joint tax committee attributes to those tax cuts and he played down apparent differences between the fed and mrg on the critical issue of changing the post crisis bank regulations. >> i had breakfast with fed chair yellen this mornin meet o have previous treasury including regulation

steve liesman now has breaking news for us. >>> janet yellen speaking saying persistently low inflation could require if it stays low looser monetary policy. i want to read you a direct quote from her speech today where she says if these sorts of favorable supply type shocks continue, our 2% inflation may require a more accommodative stance than otherwise might be appropriate. goes on to say that the policy could be easier than now an at this time tanticipated. but supports gradual adjustments. she's not necessarily saying that they will change policy, but the fed should be wary of moving too gradually sources of low inflation she expects to fade over time. there is a risk she says easing monetary policy could lead to increased leverage and prudent to stay on hold irn till inflation is at 2%. that is one part of the speech the rest is the speculative speech about the fed may be quote/unquote misjudging the strength of the labor market as well as potentially misjudging the forces acting on inflatioin. she says current sustained is undesirable, 2% goal miss could undermine the fed's credi

buy into though >> i think there's something going on with gold we had a great conversation with steve liesmand we talked about we asked him, are you concerned this administration talks about this dollar as much that has doi? we had a great conerer sags. he wants a weaker u.s. dollar. a weaker u.s. dollar will be good for gold. look at gdx. it's now pushing up to levels we saw in january i think there's a stealth rally and i wouldn't fade it here. >> sounds like it's not because of geo political risks >> that's the cherry on top. >> it's a risk off trade, but we have seen the levels of other commodities rise as well so i clearly, it would make sense in that context. the opgs market, we are seeing premiums go up this is not unsurprising often time, when commodities rally, they anticipate higher volatility going forward that's quite unlike eck quities. it certainly has the ability to move and probably more sharply than it has even so far. >> what's interesting, this not randomly is an anniversary we know that the pique in gold right was in 2011, it was september 2nd. a friday here we are friday,

with us for the hour, jim lebenthal, josh brown, jon and pete najarian, also here with us on set, steve liesman. let's take a check of where the markets stand right now. we are seeing gains pretty much across the board for the major three indices. the dow, as i mentioned, above the 22,000 mark, higher by 53 points s&p up by a quarter of a percent. financials, the leading sector of the day no surprise given the steepening we're seeing of the yield curve and the nasdaq continues its leadership, higher by nine points where do we stand here how do you interpret the jobs report and mix this all together as we enter the final four months of the year >> i hope it's say when i'm saying i'm not putting too much importance on today's job report >> cut his mike. cut his micro. steve, get out of here >> the hook comes outside. look, we know there's a seasonal issue in august. look, it was a tepid report. you didn't have the wage growth that you wanted to see but you didn't have sympathetic awful like a decline in jobs or a decline in wage growth you did see the workweek go down i don't like that. look, put

steve liesman on that speech >>> when we return the president waiving the jones act.san take a quick look at stocks. dow is down. dow is down. we're down 29. ...you'll want to check tripadvisor. we now instantly compare prices... ...from over 200 booking sites... ...to find you the lowest price... ...on the hotel you want. go on, try something fresh. tripadvisor. the latest reviews. the lowest prices. want sure!ck? alright, looks like we've got chips, popcorn, pretzels? pretzels! plain, sourdough, spicy, sesame, honey mustard, chocolate covered, peanut butter filled, this one's in german, it says, "reindfleisch?" plain. great. so what are we gonna watch? oh! show me fall tv. check out the best of the best hand-picked fall shows on xfinity x1, online, and the xfinity stream app. thirsty? >> president trump waiving the jones act restrictions for puerto rico for ten days which allow foreign vessels to ship from american ports into the territory. shipping companies are protesting that it will make the problem there worst. let's get right to contessa brewer >> reporter: go

steve liesman joins us with the other part of the story. >> the value of puerto rican debt plunging totime low as it dawns on bondholders and the ability to repay has been severely impacted by the devastation from hurricane maria. puerto rico, these are general obligation bonds in 2035 and they're in a benchmark there and 50 cents on the dollar the situation declined as you just heard that and uprooted lives. maria has done lasting damage to the island nation's economic output sorry, it's not a nation moody's private property that has not offset the federal relief efforts will signal reduced economic capacity. what does that mean? it means that port rick'suerto s ability to pay back its debt -- and it there's no call from that now, and not from the president and not congress and the federal board overseeing the bankruptcy is likely to revisit the island's financial plan this week the board on friday allowed the island governments to ship up to $1 billion of budget funds over to emergency measures. the question, this is my opinion here from an economics point of view, it's not puerto ri

steve liesman is joining us now with a new all america survey. >> we have the full results coming oute want to bring you this one piece we asked about on the nfl. 2-1 in favor of kneeling we ask the question should nfl owners fire players who sit our kneel during the national ant m anthem 61% say should not be fired and should fire of 27% and 12% not sure >> how do you get this from here big support by independence and democrats. the republicans are 47-39 with the idea, with the president's idea of suspending the players this number is quite reduced for their support for the president overall. take a look here same support in the northeast and the southeast. you are looking at here of the net support. in other words, players 35%. and a little bit more support among wealthier than compared to lower income and then white. they're still in advantage of both of these players. how that plays out in ratings, we'll see over the next couple of days. we'll get the full results on monday and ratings on america. >> we did that just to be able to compare a little bit more it is manifest -- you ar

steve liesman.ging it to us when the gop took the sweep last year, the narrative was passing nature legislation will be a breeze we know that line of thinking could not have been more wrong tricky >> lets bring in sarah fagan, she works for george w bush during the tax cuts and no doubt giddy and enthusiastic today, sarah, lets start with you, i will ask you the same question, what are the odds this gets done? >> the odds are high it stretches to next year. but, the reason it has to get done >> why >> republicans cannot present themselves on a ballot next november don't get me wrong, tax reform is going to be hard and some way it is difficult than healthcare reform but if they don't get this done, it is going to be a very ugly november 2018 and every republican member of congress knows that. >> the republicans won in large part because they may have been frustrated by what democrats did. things are going fairly well right now. what what's the urgency >> people solve problem and make the tax code cle

steve liesman is here with the results of the cnbc fed survey >> it's amazing, michelle, how the picturesstation conflict with the numbers and how the effect on gdp has seemed really to be muted in fact, there's even a slight upside, if it can be believed. i want to show you the cnbc fed survey and the outlook for year over year change in gdp. back in july, 2 1/4 was the outlook for this year. that came down just a little bit. but look what happened up a little more, 2.45 to 2.6 is the current -- we asked them specifically how much of this change we had 42 responses. how much of this change came from the hurricane take a look. very slight negative for 17 and a bigger positive for 2018 as the effects of rebuilding kick in that's gdp accounting. it doesn't take account for the effects on people's lives and the devastation to their homes and properties now, take a look at the outlook here for recession it is pretty much middling about a 1 dpsh call it 13% we've been lower, we've been quite a bit higher what are the big risks first of all, trade. protectionist trade policy seen as the biggest

steve liesman has more steve? >> reporter: for a few monies investors thought gary cohn would be the man and it may be that he's not the man anymore. it's unlikely president trump would choose cohn because of the president's comments on the charlottesville remarks. the story wasn't disputed to me and one said it's incremental, unlikely, knots definitely no. the president is considering several candidates fed chair yellen's concerns expirl innier and vice chair stan fisher announced his resignation and there's three on way to four and today the senate approved one nomination of trump and who are the possible candidates there's some possibly janet yellen get reappointed and gary cohn other names come up, glenn hubbard, former member of the bush administration and jontay lore and maybe a couple of names we don't know, but these are some names that have been floated out there from various sources what do we know for sure the president has made the decision they still seem to be looking for candidates, and they care wh

steve liesman is here. >> problem is that they don't believe him when it comes to the forecasters.w survey. take a look at the numbers 1.6% year over year. gdp, 2.3, 2017 and 2018. payrolls come down from where they are ultimately unemployment rate comes down there was a specific question. all the fiscal policy, if you put it together, what does it add up to? not one, not three-quarters, not a half one-quarter of one point there you go, guys there's the percentages. when asked how much is it all worth it's 0.25% has the market moved on? is it still countering on lower taxes to boost growth? these economists say no. there's a speed limit to the economy. you can play with it a little bit but you can't add whole points. >> it is difficult to add that much, steve. i agree with you 100%. something big like, for instance, sully, repatriation of that trillion dollars helps. that doesn't -- it wasn't 3 trillion. >> it was less 100 billion. >> five times less than what this chunk is over there right now. depending on the timing of bringing that back, that could give you maybe half a point o

steve liesman has more from our poll >> reporter: the cnbc fed survey for september showing no change expected in rates at the end of this meeting here. rates 100% of our 42 respondents expect rates to remain unchanged after the meeting. the third rate hike, 76% believe there will be another quarter point hike before the end of the year a little higher than market prices might suggest finally, 68% say by october the federal reserve will begin to reduce that $4.5 trillion balance sheet. the outlook for rates, they've come down, compared for example from our march survey. the same for 2017. but look what happened for 2018, down by 0.3%, down by 0.2. the long run rate, we'll watch that tomorrow to see if fed officials are bringing down their estimate for how far they have to go in this right rate cycle as for expectations for the balance sheet, it's expected to go down to 2.4 trillion don't get too excited. some people say it's like watching paint dry, it will take 4.4 years to get there we also asked an interesting question here, how low can the unemployment rate go before it sparks inf

questions asked about the machinations, what's going on in washington, and mnuchin's interview with steve liesmanbout tax reform something we will watch. >>> in corporate news, lululemon posting better than expected results. landon dowdy has more. athleisure is not dead, is it? >> this is pushing back on the death of athleisure. shares of lululemon moving higher after second quarter results driven by same-store sales. the apparelmaker posting earnings of 39 cents a share compared to 36 cents the street was forecast revenues topping 5$581 million same-store sales up 7%, well above the 4.2% projected after a rough start to the year, lululemon's ceo says the boost in the quarter enables us to take another positive step on our path to achieving $4 billion in revenue by 2020 look at the stock. shares struggling, down 20% in the past year. the stock is up about 6% nearly trading. back over to you >> thank you very much lululemon is a big focus later on this morning, don't miss lululemon's ceo on "squawk on the street. that's at 10:00 eastern time are you a lulu wear ir >> i have a bit. >> so, do i. i w

the fourth quarter and the first quarter. >> hopefully it's not a nuclear storm. >> what's the steve liesmantion? >> so we're -- i think it's fair to say to say 2, 2.25% and that's still pretty good in the wake of -- look, there are times to be hit by a hurricane, if i might, when it comes to the economy. this was one of them we had low inflation, we had pretty strong gdp. we've got strong job growth. we can take this hit nobody wants it. nobody thinks it's a good thing. but in terms of where the data were -- >> and it boosts the gdp down the road >> it's like the company that reports earnings and says, extraordinary items affected -- the fed shouldn't change what they were going to do based on it but if they were going to raise in september, previously, i would say they wouldn't now. but because they weren'tgoing to anyway, they're not -- >> you know what september, they raised in, joe go back in the way-back machine. >> 2008? 2007 >> 2005? >> 2005. september 2005, in the wake of katrina, they looked through the data and they hiked less than a month after. >> reporter: the financial crisis

our steve liesman has spoken to top economists and market strategists as part of our cnbc fed survey eve joins us now with what the findings say about president trump's approval rating especially as it pertains to how he's handling the economy, steve. >> reporter: interesting changes. thanks so much the cnbc fed survey, we've been following this, it's important what the market thinks is going to happen on the fiscal side the approval rating for president trump bumping up a little bit, reversing a downward trend from 29% approval to 39% the disapproval rating about the same the don't knows coming down. so still under water as pollsters would say, but getting better and certainly better and abovewater when it comes to approval on the economy as bill was showing here 63 63% approving of his handling of the economy up from h 43%. down a bit on the disapproval there. 36% to 29% this group thinks he's doing the right idea, has the right idea when it comes to the economy but the timeline doesn't look so good if you're waiting for those fiscal things to happen. take a look. health care now se

steve liesman is here to pour cold water on it, saying overseas cash isn't really even all overseas steveg to get to that in a second i want to talk about the winners and losers when it come to this corpora corporate tax cut and repatriation the market trades sometimes as if everyone's an equal winner from the administration's proposal to cut taxes on overseas earnings and cut corporate taxes. closer look finds definite winners, losers or those who winless. first let's talk about the overseas cash winners. two type people have money overseas in part because they're running business operations over there some have it overseas in order to protect it from u.s. taxes. tech and pharma are the two biggest thought to be in that realm. and it will benefit firms that avoid taxes and most likely allowed money to come back and boost dividends and buyback. don't be looking for that to happen with companies that have money overseas in order to run those overseas operations. let's take a look now at the issue of -- this next issue here about deduction winners. some firms are going to lose deductions, o

have team coverage our kayla tausche is on the scene in washington, john harwood at the burrow, steve liesmank at hq what do we expect him to say >> we expect the president to strike a unifying tone in the speech to talk about deregulation, lower rates, specifically for small businesses, which most of these manufacturers are, and also talk about ways the administration is going to incentivize companies to bring cash and materials back from overseas. this morning we spoke to some manufacturers here and they have already started buying heavy machinery and materials, they say this is what the country needs and what their companies need and they are willing to bet the ranch in the meantime, that this is getting done because it is such a high priority for republicans and for this administration don't expect the president to talk about other ways that he has spoken in the past about things he's doing for the manufacturing industry he'll skip tariffs and talk of taxes on companies that do move money offshore, expect this to be, as i mentioned before, a unifying tone from the president. >> steve, i b

by the fed is even that much more, i would say >> i hear what your point is >> my pushback to steve liesman would be, it's easier to get into a position in the former environment than it is, right? so i hear what he's saying >> everybody -- >> we're saying pretty much the same thing i don't know how they thread this needel. to karen's point, i saw "dog day afternoon. the first 90 minutes were great. doesn't end that well for the guys in the movie, if you recall >> it seems okay now, we hit record highs seems okay, right? the market response was practically nothing. but we're all worried. is that the message here >> my point is, there's no worry in this market >> how do you express that in your portfolio >> we express it as high multiple stocks. a lot of environmevulnerability. emerging markets went down 1.4% on the news and rallied back to take back half of that you look at sectors that are relying on excess liquidity and global growth. i think in the short one, people have to digest what's going on here >> karen >> having had banks for a long, long time, i wouldn't be starting today to buy

. >> steve liesman, cnbc. madam chair, you just said in your opening remarks that reducing the balance sheet should not an active tool for monetary policy in normal times, you don't plan to make adjustments to the balance sheets. i wonder if we can explore if there is any sensitivity to the plan you just announced? if there is a spike in interest rates, a plunge in the stock market, weakness in growth, in the june statement, you indicated that the only reason why you would change -- suggested, only reason you would change the balance sheet if it require ad first a change in the fund rate is. that true or if there is some unexpected development in markets? or for example, given that we don't know what the plans are on the fiscal side for the deficit in terms of tax cuts there could be a sudden spike in the deficit will the balance sheet reduction plan be immune to all of that? and given that question, and the idea this has never been done before, why so much certainty about the plan you've just announced and ap

don't miss steve liesman's exclusive interview with dudley today at 10:00 eastern can he stem that slide we saw in the dollar this week >>> the house is expected to pass a 15$15.3 billion disaster relief package today that bill linked to an increase in the debt ceiling which would keep the government operating for three additional months. it was passed by a vote of 80-17. the house vote would send the plan to the president for the signature. this is the deal he made with the democrats attaching the harvey aid to both the continuing resolution and the debt ceiling >>> in corporate stories, adp is pushing back against blackman's pershing square. in a lert the hedge fund said it would end its proxy contest if adp expand its board but in a statement adp responded that pershing square's approach spren hissings to risks to shareholders. >>> shares of akzo nobel are down the company says it will not achieve its operatingised was tr in july, akzo's ceo also quit due to health reasons. >>> second quarter results for c cloudera rose. it is raising its full-year outlook. up 44% this morning. >>> sh

steve liesman joins us with the findings so we don't have to waste time on whether it's all america orteve, we're also just hearing from new york fed president -- >> yeah, bill dudley what did he say? >> he said that the federal reserve is likely to continue to remove the -- he says the effects of the hurricane are likely to be relatively short-lived. they will make interpreting the data difficult overall he is positive on the u.s. economy saying the growth trajectory is slightly above trend. there it is. him taking into account the better numbers we see. he sees a tightening labor market that will support wage growth and says u.s. fundamentals are quite favorable. we don't have the drag anymore from it is dollar and overseas growth is sno it no longer a drag on the economy. on to the results of the national association for business economics what you see is they don't see us getting to that 3% growth number this year or next year. take a look at the outlook 2.3% this year 2.3% next year there we go. payrolls come down a little bit. 187 was the average for 2016 goes down to 178 this is

i said, this conversation is not finished, but i want to bring in our senior economics report steve liesman who is releasing a new cnbc fed survey on the eve of tomorrow's fed decision, maybe giving us more insight on how people are thinking about janet yellen and her future she, of course, the chair. >> a real big change, scott, from our july survey to today and you know things happened in between. we'll get to that in a second and i want to show you the change real fast back in july, it was thought president trump would reappoint fed chair yellen and now that's 38% and we also asked should the president reappoint the fed chair and 59% of our 42 respondents, half economist, others strategists and other analyst, 59% said yes, donald trump should reappoint fed chair janet yellen look at what's happened to the fortunes of others nec director gary cohn making disparmging response abo d disparaging remarks after the president's response to charlottesville and kevin warsh, the former fed governor has gone from 24% to being the leader at 34% and jontay lore doubling his chances so all of this is

we just talked to steve liesman, and consensus is basically that over the next 4.4 years they will getown from $4.2 trillion to $2.4 trillion you think it's going to take a lot longer >> yes, i don't think that will happen i don't think -- i don't think it's a big deal. okay i think what is a big deal is if you had an economic down turn because we have two economies now. really okay we look at averages. averages are misleading. the top one-tenth of 1% of the population has a net worth that is equal to the bottom 90% of the population combined. we know from elections, from what has happened, that we have these two economies. if you carve out that 60% economy and what's the bottom 60% of the economy looking like, it's a terrible economy. if you were to have a downturn, i really do believe that the wealth conflict, the left, the right, and all of that would be intolerable. we mustn't have a downturn what we have as a situation where there's no compelling reason to tighten monetary policy the fed's assumptions in terms of how unemployment rates would lead to inflation rates are clearly wro

c northbound's senior economics reporter steve liesman is here >> yeah. >> palpable. >> palpable. >>>> but not just that, joe. >> no. >> we have the fed meeting we have the press kvs. >> wow >> yeah. >> stop, stop. >> be still your beating heart >> stop. >> because the b.o.j. is meeting. you know what that stands for? >> i do. >> bank of japan >> i think bah of jap al arian >> the monetary mystery here >> you know, it's a no change. global monetary policy is on the move around the world. >> it's less easy than it was. here's what j.p. morgan wrote over the weekend against an improving global macroeconomic back drop central bankers are now becoming concerned about the market's complace ensy and the risk this poses for financial stability. now we're going to do a really exciting survey of central banks around the world here's where people are and where markets sort of generally expect them to be. the fed at 1.16. the rate is seen rising over time the balance sheet is next month they're going to announce or at this meeting they'll announce that the balance sheet will begin to fall. ecb

programming note as we go to break, tomorrow right here on "squawk on the street," do not miss steve liesman'st invest in stocks and bonds. they don't invest in alternatives or municipal strategies. what people really invest in is what they hope to get out of life. but helping them get there means you can't approach investing from just one point of view. because it's only when you collaborate and cross-pollinate many points of view that something wonderful can happen. those people might just get what they want out of life. or they could get even more. >>> got some news from amazon this morning the company says it's searching for a second headquarters in north nesamerica yet to be determined they are going to invest $5 billion in that facility and offer 50,000 high paying jobs. he expects hq 2 to be a full equal to the current headquarters in seattle. we'll talk to a former executive later this week on "squawk alley," the chicago sun times says the mayor had several conversations with bezos about butting that headquarters in chicago. >> they have more than a million people which is one criteria

and what it is going to take to get lumber, material and people to and from the impact zones and steve liesman here at headquarters diving into the cost to the economy of both irma and harvey that number climbing by the minute let's begin with contessa. contessa >> nice to talk to you today the hotels and restaurants in this tourist hot spot in miami are out assessing the damage today, trying to figure out how much wind damage they have, how much water damage they have from the surge and how much business they're losing because of power outages. let's take a look at the port now. port of miami, important for cruise ships coming and going. we've just had an update from norwegian escape saying they have a ship heading towards miami with 4,000 passengers on board at capacity. a lot of these were displaced passengers from other ships. it's leaving cozumel at 5:00 p.m. tonight carnival's paradise is also leaving cozumel this afternoon the problem is, the port is closed everglades port is closed. port canaveral, port of tampa, all closed no set time for reopening. of course irma caused a lot of thes

steve liesman here with a rapid update steve. >> tyler, thanks very much weak data this morning causing economists to bring a sharp decline in their outlooks for third quarter growth the rapid update now declining by 30.6 percentage points. we don't see big changes like that very often after weaker retail sales and industrial production reported this morning. the range of very wide range of 1.3 to 2.8, q2 tracking remaining at 3.1%. i divided up who's where into optimists and pessimists emers pier pont still optimistic moody's analytics still optimistic but look at the rest atlanta fed down by 300.8. barclays 0.8 bank of america 0.8. goldman sachs down 0.4 some of this hurricane related not much some of it is prior weakness from july. even when you take out hurricane effects from the industrial production report there was still weakness that con be explained by the storms. tyler? >> steve, thank you very much. worth watching of course now to two other developing stories worth watching beyond the markets. could impact your money, however. first the terror attack in london second the late

senior economics reporter steve liesman is here to take us inside the numbers it is cooling, coastingstabilizing? >> a lot of negative words used in the intro i don't know if i agree. job growth did slow. came in below expectations but is a decent report the population is growing at 80,000 that's what we should expect we're almost double that number, still enough to take some workers off. ism manufacturing, one of the highest numbers in a while more about that in a second. consumer sentiment, same idea. came down but still a strong level. gary cohn spoke with cnbc earlier today. for a politician, his analysis wasn't much different from private sector economists. >> we're looking at the trend overall, looking at job growth, job creation and we see a lot of very good momentum in numbers. one numbers that went down were government always said government is going to get smaller, private sector is getting bigger. >> here's data nonfarm pay rolls, what i didn't like with june jewelry visions down, average hourly wage up a tenth. that's where the weakness is unemployment rate 4.4% and labor

. >>> president trump targeting three 3% economic growth, but is that actually doable steve liesman is here with the results of the latest economic survey >> the congressional budget office and the federal reserve say the economy trend growth rate is under 2% the president has said his policies can ratcheted it up to 3%, 4%, stop me when i get to on 10 but a group saying that is unlikely, highly unlikely. national association for business economics out with their september survey, 2 bpt 3% expected in '17, 2 bpt 3% in 2018 payroll ratcheting down. if you look at the-mf i guess we don't have the next screen there it is. thanks this screen shows that basically their outlook for the effective fiscal policy is draw a line down the middle of the two big bars 0.25% is all they expect to get from this. now, they do like these ideas because the biggest up side risk to the economy they say are things like global growth, corporate tax reform, individual tax cuts and firm wage growth. those are the things that would cause the up side growth to the economy. but the biggest down side risk is anothe

all this and get reaction to his comments on the economy and tax reform joining us today, cnbc's steve liesman, mark zandy, kirk hartman from wells capital manage cement with us today and keith bliss right here at "the new york post" 1 and steve santelli from the cme in issue steve, on the issue of the tax reform it remains to be see what the tax package will look like but there's an amount of faith that goes into the plan when you hope it benefits the middle class it depends on what the corporations do with the tax cuts that they get, right? >> it sure does. there's a lot of controversy around that. first of all, i -- i have to look into this a bit more, but i don't think pension funds are the big owners of equity i think by my calculation pension funds are about 20% of the household's financial as let's in pension funds and that's one thing the other thing out there is this controversy, bill, or this debate call it over how much of the corporate tax is paid by the worker there's been some stuff that shows that 70% is paid by the worker of the corporate tax and other data, for example, from a

steve liesman stepping in. what now, steve?> reporter: i'm not stepping in bill jerome powell is the news. the federal reserve governor, jerome powell apparently according to the dow jones met on wednesday with president trump, interviewed according to them for the fed chair job this comes as it's been reported earlier this morning that former federal reserve governor kevin warsh met with the president on thursday i think the clear indication is this search for the next fed chair is heating up. we were trying to establish whether or not the current fed chair, janet jellyellen had mett the president. i do not believe that's happened recently we'll wait to see if fed chair janet yellen sits down with president trump. then john taylor, stanford economics professor, is another well-known candidate, along with a couple other bankers out there have also been mentioned so there was a fear out there that president might let this go until, i don't know, december or january, it looks to me like the process is -- has a little momentum to

of interests it was at the highest levels in nine years what is that signaling >> lets bring in steve liesman some numbers for context? >> last week the yield was .95 and now it is 1.33 >> right >> what's happening is investors are shunning shows bills that come due around the time that the government is supposed to go out of money and shut down these are the highest yields that we have seen and the great financial crisis in other words, putting that, it is previous incidents like this when you have other things were not taken quite seriously. have you seen a list of things that congress is supposed to accomplish have you seen the prior -- >> you can say eight years >> particular, the last eight years they did raise the debt ceiling. >> we did shut downs >> i am not defending the last congress this particular congress does not have a track record of getting things done. >> we can show people treasury which are rallying if we were to show them this one month, it would be showing a sell off we would be running against everything else. >> i don't want people to be confused and they don't know wh

steve liesman is here with the storm's economic impact. steve?: yeah, kelly, thanks initial estimates of the potential cost of the two monster storms being pegged now at $150 billion to $200 billion. moody's analystics put harvey at $86 billion to $108 billion. now irma, $64 billion to $92 billion. now sure if that incokorcorporas the catastrophic flooding. in the totals, $20 billion to $30 billion of lost economic output from idle hotels, people who can't get to work, power outages, shutting down commerce. moody's shaved its third quarter gdp forecast by half a point, now running at 2.5%. expects a reconstruction rebound in the fourth quarter. that depends on the timing, though, of insurance payments and government assistance and the ability to find enough construction workers to rebuild the state. the state is the fourth largest ranked by gdp. $944 billion just the 27 in per capita income seniors on modest pension living in the state of florida. the storms can have enduring and lasting effects on live and localities but don't have lasting natio

during the playing of our national anthem, i think is disgraceful >> all right eamon, thank you now steve liesman joins us from cnbc headquarters with a wrap-up of, oh, yes, fed chair janet yellen's comments this afternoon, too. >> some business news. fed chair janet yellen went further than she has in the past, guys, in acknowledging the fed may not fully understand the inflation die nynamidynamic. ultimately she ends up in her speech before economists today, backing the fed's current policy of gradual rate hikes and removal of easy monetary policy. the reason, she says there's substantial drawbacks to the fed going too slow >> without further modest increases in the federal funds rate over time, there's risk that the labor market could eventually become overheated, potentially creating an inflationary problem down the road that might be difficult to overcome without triggering a recession. >> that was the conclusion of the speech, but she spent most of the time before that speculating about the possibility the fed might have inflation and the job dynamic wrong. >> if these sorts of favorable su

. >> for more reaction let's bring in cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman safe time at the end think we're burying the lead here. >> you don't mean the drudge report thing, do you >>. >> do you have any idea the fan mail i get when i put on a cap, people complain >> this is a study from the oout of pennsylvania. then they do quote larry david anyone can be confident with the full head of hair. but a confident bald man, there's a diamond in the rough >> a heterosexual guy wearing a pink shirt i'm comfortable. >> i'm getting rid of the -- >> imauto going to stop taking this propecea stuff. >> get rid of that and get rid of the rug and join us over here, joe. join us. >> should we do the numbers? >> who comes -- >> executive producers are laughing he is not even telling us to move on. >> i'm here to humble you. otherwise, who would do that >> that's true >> becky does pretty well. i liked your answer yesterday. i'm not even going to repeat it. i'm not going to repeat it >> apologies here. look, i just want to set the stage here this is a hurricane -- potentially hurricane related

. >> treasury secretary steven mnuchin sitting down with our own steve liesman yesterday to talk tax ad of today's jobs report. did you -- were you able to talk him out of this? >> out of what >> into cutting taxes and into your own personal thing, the rate -- i mean, did you tell him what you always tell me about how eisenhower had 90% marginal rates and things were great and how actually in the soviet union when you were there, there was no private sector? >> when do you sit down and make this stuff up? that's what i want to know is it at night instead of spending time with your lovely wife and beautiful children, is it in the morning instead of reading the paper and preparing. >> i think that just came to me. >> just right now. >> i heard you did a great job okay but you did not try and talk him out of it >> i did not try to talk him out of it. >> okay. all right. so you got your own feelings you played journalist and got your own feelings out of it? >> my feelings for a very long time, before i even -- >> you're wasting time >> no i'm not wasting time i've been in favor of a tax c

steve liesman is in washington getting ready. rom you later today, steve, many atimes. >> you know, it's an historic day, andrew. in the ongoing saga of the financial crisis will there be a slow motion train wreck for the economy? bridgewater ray dali is watching a dire warning he compared it to 1997 when the fed reversed policy in the middle of the great depression >> they print a lot of money to make up for credit, and we had to rebound from 32 to 37, and the markets go to highs, and everything is good then at that moment in 1937 we're at the point where that ended, and then there was a tightening of monetary policy. >> that didn't end particularly well here are some of the other negatives out there for why this balance sheet reduction may not go as foreseen because there are unforeseen consequences. particularly emerging market debt could be one victim of this it would be worsened by rising deficit. the fed not buying the treasury issue could be a worse outcome it's the wrong policy when inflation is low and growth is low. ther

economy steve liesman is in washington and he's going to have the information as soon as it is out. >o get inside and strip properties of sheetrock, insulation and carpeting before mold sets in, and materials run out. morgan brennan is live in houston. morgan >> hey, michelle, that's right so the race is on to get homes cleaned up before the mold, and any other types of damage can set in now just to put this in perspective. we're talking about the difference between several thousand dollars worth of cleanup, and hundreds of thousands. so take this home. this is a four bedroom suburban home it had about six inches of flooding in here but guess what days out from all that flooding it's already starting to see some secondary damage on the second level of the home so this is one of thousands of properties that crews from all over the country for servpro are coming down to houston, being hired to work on >> obviously we're trying to stop the clock with any additional damage. the more the moisture sits in the home, or the business, or any kind of structure it's going to saturate and move in