. >>> let's bring in our steve liesman now for his take on this steve, i guess ia way, maybe we don'tw exactly what these expanded cfius powers will mean until they exercise them and say no or hold on to something, but what can we gather might be different? >> couple things it's a review process by a committee. that's different from say it being up to the prerogative of the president. treasure secretary mnuchin also told us that it will prohibit or could prohibit the transfers of technology through joint ventures as you know sometimes companies, they may get turned down through the cfius process but create a joint venture on the other side and that be prohibited through this process i think there's some -- what's the right word or way to put this -- some happiness out there in the market that navarro and light houser are not entirely driving the trade train on their own, tha being runy also mnuchin and hassett and kudlow, seems to be having -- cooler heads are prevailing on this take a look at chinese foreign direct investment in the united states over the past several years. you can

steve liesman with the rapid update of course, it's all about expectations so is the market expecting a great gdp number is the market expecting a change in the dna of e econom because of the tax cuts? are we underestimating that and will it therefore have an upside jim lebenthal joins us on central time today, but go ahead, jim >> anything going on okay no, but listen, a great question i was listening to steve and thinking to myself, that's great for the second quarter, but like all stock investors. it's looking forward that matters. here's the problem i said this yesterday. i'm going to say it again. we're going to get into the earnings season and you're going to hear from ceos and cfos how they feel about this china trade war, yeah, i'm calling it a trade war now, and whether it's going to affect profits and for that matter gdp going forward. and it's really kind of a crap shoot. there's no way to know at this had folks like daimler, like harley davidson say there are effects from what is going on. and that's the look forward that you have to worry about, if it spreads further than

steve liesman joins us now with more steve?> maybe not crazy but the cnbc fed survey sees higher stock prices and higher yields in the months and years ahead let's take a look. what you see is when we look at the past surveys, we've been going down 38 respondents, fund managers, economists, have reduced their outlook for the s&p 500. finally for the first time they're becoming a bit more bullish. not crazy bullish. 2% more left this year, on the s&p 6% by the end of 2019. on the next screen an environment of rising yields right now we'll call it 298, 3% right now, rising to 3.23. call it 3.25%. good for stocks to defy that rising rate of drag on stocks. now here is the outlook for today or tomorrow's meeting. 100% chance of a rate hike 81% chance in september. now it gets interesting. how many hike this is year in 3.5. half our responders are saying three, half are saying four. same disagreement over hikes in 2019 2.6 say some are looking for three, some are looking for two. will they raise rates above neutral? to the point to

i'm steve liesman. >>nd in addition to the trade tensions tensions, there's another hot button issue in washington. that would be immigration. so with markets stumbling here, is wall street startg to nment more weary of gov policy joining us today to talk is ed mills from ray mondmond james. >> thank you. >> all cares about is making money. i gue fear is that an issue like immigration could distract washington from the trade issues as they become more and more contentious here. what do you think? >> yeah. or immigration can force trump to get even more bombastic on trade. i think one of t things that you see here in d.c. is that when ver trump has a series bad headline days on any given .opic, he does a great job of changing the subje and so what i think investors are looking at saying if a little bit too hot on immigration, what subject does he change that to and the b subject he keeps going back to ime again right now is trade. and so doese y to really up the pressure on china, canada, mexico, other m

steve liesman once again has our story. >> reporter: it may seem strange and little out of the box, but a cardboard boat race in uisville, kentucky, is seen as part of a solution to a national worker's shortage problem. it all looks like f andgames, but behind it are some serious high school students studying computer assisted design or cad. >> never knew i was in engineering. once i got to the cad, i was like, wow, ieally like this. i could do this. i'm really good at it. >> reporter: the cardboard boat regatta is the cap stone event for students studying auto cad and cnc machines. their task, float a boat using nothing but cardboard and duct tape. h kiley ander classmates are al handfuf the more than 17,000 students pursuing career specific education through the nnovative academies of louisville program. the city's answer to the economic challenges it faces with a low 3.4% unemployment rate. it's not far off the national rate at 8% near a two-decade low. >> business is used to havingr laow up at the door to go. there was more availability of labor and business wasn't as complicated. 8

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman j southwest books fewer business passengers. southwest said the drop in ticket purchases would cause a measure of revenue to fall 3% this quarter, but it seems as though investors were expecting a steeper decline because the shares finished up more than 1% to $51.65. >>> nectar they arapeutic saw billions of dollars shaved off of its earnings after disappointing trial results fm e experimental skin cance drug. the latest finding shows that patients with melanoma are not responding as well as past patients do. shares plunged falling nearly 42% to $52.57. >>> after the bell cupa software said an increase in subscription helped overall earnings improve and top expectations. the company gave guidance for fiscal 2019, the beat. the shares were volatile but finished the regular day up 2% to $55.33. asena retail expected smaller than normal earnings. the owner of ann taylor did give a profit outlook that was short of estimates. the shares sold off in after hours erasing a 10% gain from earlier when shares closed at $3.66. >>> pioneerin

steve liesman is covering the report from was >> a new range of 1.75 to 2% and esignals further r hikes ahead amid what chafed chairman said. >> household surveys nd businesses, confidence is high. if you ask the workers about the job market, they'll say it's a really good environment to find joey. su businesses, and say the workers are scarce and alov we have a really good economy on our hands here. what we're doing is we areo trying conduct a policy in a way with the expansion and keep the labor market strong and inflation right at, sorry, not above, but right at 2%. >> the fed believes the economy is strong enough d w to withwit withstand additional rate hike as soon as this year. the fed took over in february. >>chair, i hope to foster a onversation about what the fed is doing to support a strong and resilient economy and when practical steps in doing is to have a press conference like this after every one schedule meetings. we're going to do that beginning in january. that will give us more opportunities to explain our actions and to answer your questions. >> taking a s wait and ap

it's so important that steve liesman will be here with what you need to know from the european centralank in a bit we begin with a huge proposed d deal in media. our parent company, comcast, bidding $65 billion for the entertainment and movie assets of 21st century fox. it is a deal that could reshape all of media that is unless disney comes in with a higher revised bid. let's get to all the details with leslie picker >> it's objenly going to get mo interesting here comcast putting forth its official bid for much of fox's assets yesterday the number to note is $65 billion. $35 a share in cash, 19% premium over the all stock bid the disney bid was worth $52 billion when it was announced. it could ignite a bitting w inb for the assets the court decision earlier this week enabling at&t to acquire time warner without much in the way of divestiture paved the way for comcast's move last night. comcast said they were highly confident they could obtain all necessary regulatory approvals, and was likely or even more likely to receive those approvals than that of disney. comcast agreed to pay th

let's get straight to steve liesman who is at the news conference with jerome powell earlier. steve? >> reporter: yes more to come the fed ranging by a quarter point. and it signaled further rate hikes ahead and what fed chairman jerome powell described as a robust u.s. economy >> i would te economy's in great shape if you looat household surveys, confidence is high. look at businesses, confidence is high. if you ask -- if you survey workers about the job market, they'll say that it's a really good envirment to find jobs. if you survey businesses they'll say that workers scarce so i think overall we have a really sod economy on our hands here. so what we're doing is we are trying to conduct monetary policy in y that will sustain that expansion, keep the labor market strong d keep inflation above -- right at -- sorry, not above, right at 2%. >> most on the fed believe the economy is now strong enough to withstand an additional two rate hikes this year. the previous consensus was just for one. the fed is now seen going above its long run rate in 2019. the long run rate is 2.9 but

. >> for nightly business report, i'm steve liesman. >> great story. >>> time to take a look at some of today's yun grades andown grades. cigna was upgraded by neutral, cigna is positioned to continue to irease market share gains in the commercial risk market. the price target is $212. val yans raiding was upgreated from erweight to equal weight. va valian stabilized to 25 pngt 41. >> the analysts say the manufacturer is positioned for growth right now, raise the price target to 33, shares soared by 15% as a result today, to 27.45. shares of floor and de co holdings were upgraded. the analysts ss growthhead even as interest rates continue to rise. price target $58. they gained 7 1/2% to52.48. >>> still ahead, what happens to the housing market if home pric rise twice as fast as wages? we'll ask an expert next. >>> the recent din in mortgage rates n has gone unnoticed. mortgage applications rose 4% last week. that was lower than a year ago. >> and while mortgage applications are higher. a new reuters pole found that home prices are rising at twice the rate of inflation and wages. so w

for "nightly business report" i'm steve liesman. >>> at what point could escalating trade tensions become a sizable head wind for the markets? joining us now is founder and ceo of zoeo financial. eau probably the previous guest say the tax and budt il winds more than offset in the short tm whatever head winds there are from trade. do you agree with that? >> i would ifagree. we look at the most recent data from retail sales we saw acceleration going into the second quarter. the earlier comments make a lot of sense which is if anything if this had happened maybe in january o february it might have had a bigger impact in th overall markets. going into the acceleration i think it could cuson it up to now. it does escalate that could mean more volatility than we are seeing right now. >> the expectation has been for a strong secondal of the year that q 3 and q 4 earnings would continue s tow growth now. when you are looking at what the possibilities of a trade w do to that, is it going to temper the expectations? >> that's a great question. i do think that there isne re driver that effects earn

steve liesman. >> the dow is up 83. they're talking about the ecb, and the big thing is it moved not only europe, the market and even here in the united states we moved up four or five points and the key mover, of course, wasn't the fact that they were ending the asset purchases and it was the fact that the rates were unchanged with the last summer and you see that pop up into positive territory here in the united states, sectors, we're still considering getting the consumer discretionary okay and tech up a little bit and we need more help and banks are just a problem they have stocked being a leadership group for the last couple of weeks essentially and we have a week with a lot of news and what we don't have is movement in the stock market here and we have media m and a, and rate hike and strong retail sales and we have some risks out there. the china economy, and the china tariffs are an issue and the president may impose them tomorrow and a more hawkish fed, and the presser yesterday and you can argue they're somewh

for nightly business report, i'm steve liesman. >>> the latest data is indeed solid, is the economy on the brink of running a bit too hot?t and willde tensions cool things off? we're joined by the chief economist at vining sparks. good to see you again. >> good evening, sue. >> let's get the trade discussion out of the way. what type of impact do you think the current trade dispute and/oi taffs may have on the economy? >> we thinkl it w be fractional, the biggest fear is that this escalates from here, did you look at the trade tariffs that have been put in place so far, the impact to growth should be minimalo the impact inflation should be minimal, throws are the two things we should look at as far as our impact to the economy. as long as they don't escalate -- as long as it doesn't escalat into a trade war, the impact will be fairly small. >> you do think f that the might have a bigger impact net net on the economy. something that industrials should watch, why? >> based on the previous stories, you just discussed, the economy is very strong right now, if you look athe consumer, the un

our senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us with more hi, steve. >> yeah, if it feels like trademoil is wreaking havoc in the stock market, pulling you up, pulling you down, you are right. here is the data to prove it there have been 35 moves of 1% or more in the dow jones industrial average that is either way positive or negative of those, cnbc research finding 12 have been entirely or substantially related to trade that's trade-related news. seven negative trade moves and five have been positive or relief rallies from trade concerns here's the seven negative moves that have shaved $700 billion in market cap off of the dow. while the relief rallies have put money back a net loss of $137 billion in market cap from the big trade related moves. not a lot but perhaps one reason the market has stood still amid strong gdp and job growth and corporate friendly tax cuts. here are two tip skal instanypis 1.15% loss the biggest relief rally, that 2.9%, 3% decline followed four days later with a "wall street journal" headline, u.s. stocks surge as trade worries ease. now there have been up

steve liesman is here with the fed survey would you say the results are surprising to you or not >> no, only in the sense that they disagree with paul tudor jones that they don't see crazy. they do see upside and the same concept of higher stock prices amid higher rates. i'll just show you results quickly. you can see, we have been coming down what you have is a history of the s&p 500 year end forecast, consensus forecast, from our survey, and the last three months, we're down and finally, scott, they're running back up relative to 2786, which was the number fm day. a 2% upside for this year and 6% for next year. that's going to right direction in terms of bullishness, maybe not the bulls are , but llishne. if you look at the next line, you see they dat amid a scenario of rising interest rates. so call it 2.98, now up by a quarter point and then another quarter point. so stocks defy the drag of higher yields. so conceptually, it's the same, but i think this panel of 38 economists, strategists, don't see crazy. we don't actually offer up crazy as an option maybe we need to now >> what d

it's nonsense. >> with me here in washington, cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman ahead ofrip to the fed this afternoon and his questioning of jay powell. supportive of the corporate taxn greenspan, but not at all of the current trade policy >> that's in line with what a lot of economists think. the former chairman calling out the presids argument which are he's really been demagoguing the issue. the president is arguing when it comes to trade, we have a trade surplus with canada, a massive dairy surplus with canada. balanced ste trade and i was just reading a piece by ben steele, the tariffs from this administration have hit canada the hardest, europe second and china third china is only $4 billion of s e like $13 billion >> yeah, and they're closer trading partner with us. so it makes sense. how does the fed process all of this because it hasn't really made an impact at this point on the economy. >> i think your question was good in that you ask, what does this all mean for gdp? so farks not very much the concern right now is that this round and then potentially another r

. >> always good to go to the data rather than just look at the headline steve liesman, thank you souch. >> sure. >>> first look at amazon's newest fire tv device with the head of product development for amazon's fire tv division. "squawk alley" is back after this welcome to holiday inn! thank you! ♪ ♪ wait, i have something for you! every stay is a special stay at holiday inn. save up to 15% when you book early at hollidayinn.com save up to 15% when you book early i we worked with pg&eof to save energy because wenie. wanted to help the school. they would put these signs on the door to let the teacher know you didn't cut off the light. the teachers, they would call us the energy patrol. so they would be like, here they come, turn off your lights! those three young ladies were teaching the whole school about energy efficiency. we actually saved $50,000. and that's just one school, two semesters, three girls. together, we're building a better california. >>> amazon launched the fire tv cube with echo voice activated speaker that acts as a streaming box and remote joining us here at pos

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i would put it down as more of a risk >> steve liesman cnbc. you said there's a difference of opinion among economists, but looking a the longer run gdp growth rates, or the members of the committee, there's not a lot of difference. it's 182 or depending how you count it. is that showing us that not a single member of the committee including yourself, mr. chairman, agrees with economists over at the white house that they can achieve long run sustained growth rates at 3% or higher. do you believe in th? >>ou know, firstf all,at's a re think. it's not that we're on the same number but there are a range of views about potential growth. and there's so much untendercer around this. the thing about fiscal policy you don't have thousands of ci to -- you don't have big draft ata. you have a lot of uncertainty around what the affects could be. we hope they're large. i think our approach will be to watch and see and hope that, in fact, we get significant affects to, you know, to potential growth out of the tax bill and we're going to have to see. >> cnn.

. >> steve liesman, cnbc. mr. chairman, you said there is a difference of opinion among economists but looking at the longer-run gdp growth rates for the members of the committee there is not a whole lot of difference. 1.8, or 1.7 to 2.1, depending how you count it. is that showing us not a single member of the committee, including yourself, mr. chairman, agreesh economists over at the white house that they can achieve long-run sustained growth rates above or at 3% or higher? do you believe in that? >> you know, first of all, that is a reasonable range i think, it is not that n the ber, but there are a range of views about potential growth. and there is so much uncertainty around this. we don't -- the thing about fiscal policy is, you don't have thousands of incidents to, you know, you don't have big data in a way. ave only a few instances. you have uncertainty what the effects could be. you hope they're large. our approach will be to watch and see. hope we get significant effects to, to potential growth out of th

trade schools, are they the solution steve liesman will visit a program that questions whether you do need a four-year degree plus, president trump's top economic adviser, larry kudlow, is set to hold a briefing at the white house about the upcoming g-7 meeting in canada. it begins at 1:00 p.m., and we'll bring you surlawrence of america live on "power." halftime back after this >>> all right. welcome back now to a company whose stock has doubled nearly in the last year. our bob pisani is at the sandler o'neal global exchange conference in new york with the interactive brokers ceo thomas peterffy, and as i'm saying, he does have a good story to tell on what this stock has done over the last year plus >> and he has been a stellar outperformer thomas peterffy, an old friend of mine and cnbc joining us here i start by asking how the markets are. you're a terrific market observer i asked you and was shocked to hear you're bearish. you have been bullish for so long what has happened in your viewpoint? >> i turned bullish on the night that the election results came in and i turned bearish t

. >> the atlanta gdp, and we could have steve liesman on this morning to discuss and debate how goodir estimates may be. either way, the atlanta fe of a that the economy may grow at nearly 5%. >> right. >> this quarter. >> right. >> are you that big of a bull? i mean, god bless our friends down south i hope they're right 4.8% growth on the economy are you that wildly optimistic >> look, the key is not necessarily that the atlanta fed is going to be right at 4.8% it's a number in time and it will change up until the point in time the gdp numbers are released the important thing to take away is that growth in second quarter is going to be better than growth in the first quarter, and we believe that consumers have been stepping up and spending in the secouarter that will flowhrough to gdp. reality is consumer's still 70%-plus of gdp. so if the consumer is indeed stepping up like we think they are, the gdp number should come through. >> bottom line is, economy's pretty good, things are pretty good. >> right. >> stay focused maybe on those smaller cap, domestically focused names. >> corre

and we depend on chubb. >>> wall street is going fishing today for a good cause steve liesman joins us jersey city. i have deja vu this happens occasionally, steve? >> every year, joe an effort to raise awareness for the amazing fishery in the hudson river most people don't believe it, but there's 40, 50-pound fish swimming up the hodson spawning, hopefully coming back down frank, what's going on out there on the hudson river? >> every day wall streeters traverse this waterway on ferries and have no idea, steve, what's living right below the wate water,thriving vital fishery used as force for good we have a bunch of returning vets. >> first of all, say hello to astronaut bruce. fishing a long time. >> thank you, steve. since a young kid and great to come up here, support the effort and fished with frank quite a few times great to give this world perspective on this great fishery up here in new york. >>frank, you were moved by the idea saw a documentary. 22 veterans committing suicide every day. you're bringing 22 veterans fishing. >> yes. >> i want to talk to the staff sergeant here, i

steve liesman is here and looking at that for us >> i will tell you something right now, the trade dispute have wiped out his business contacts when it comes to economic optimism. i began the year with a decided upside of my risk profile for growth however, that optimism is completely faded among my contacts replaced by concerns or trade policies and tariffs there is a big consequence which is the one on sentiment and on investment here is what fed chairman jerome powell said last week. >> concerns of trade policies are rising you begin to hear reports of companies holding off of making investments and hiring people. >> on "squawk box," even president trump's top economic adviser agreed >> we are in a period of uncertainty and it is invisible in some place and as you can see it in lumber prices. the president's long run objective is one that all economists have shared think of all of the barriers and china is stealing more than $100 billion a year worth of intellectual property. tax cuts were passed to boost cap ex >> what do economists think of all of this being a tactic >> time is runnin

. >> steve liesman, cnbc you said the a difference of opinion among economists, but looking at the longer run gdp growth rates for the members of the committee, there's not a lot of difference. it's 1.8 to 2. is that showing us that not a single member of the committee including yourself agrees with economists at the white house that they can achieve long run sustained growth rates above or at 3% or higher. do you believe in that >> you know, first of all, that's a rnge, i think.t we're all on the same number, there were a range of views about potential growth. and there's so much uncertainty around this, the thing about fiscal policy is, you don't have thousands of incidents to -- you don't have big data in a wayve . only a few iere. i think our approach is going to be to watch and see. and hope that we get significant effects to potential growth out of the tax bill. and we're just going to have to see. >> i think we're looking at a reasonable range of estimates and we're putting -- different participants are putting different estimates in, and we're going to be waiting and seeing >>. >>

steve liesman has a look at that subject. >> president trump now going where economists had feared, escalatingde disputes to a place where totals can have measurable impacts on global growth and inflation. >> if you were to have 400 billion of tariffs executed not just discussed but actually executed you are probably talking about four 10off. >> most agree the amounts were not enough to move the gdp or inflation needles. the primary concern was one on sentiment and certainty. oxford economics writing china has quickly vowed to retaliate and if such an escalation were to materialize -- the probability of a full blown trade war is rising. oxford says it can't rule out cooler heads will prevail but says the tariffs could shave 0.3 off chinese growth. if strong growth continues we may be upwards of four percent these will be nothing more than modest opportunity loss. the negatives from the tariffs could wipe out the extra growth that economists think could come from the tax cuts. there is growing concern about the cost of potential effectiveness of the president's tactics. >> i suppose the next st

. >> 223,000 jobs added for the month of may steve liesman back at hq for more on what was a decent reporte best comment on the jobs number as it has for many years coming this morning from our retiring colleague hampton pearson who said right out of the box, quote, the private sector is on fire. let's look at what hampton was talking about. 223 on nonfarm pay rolls there's the private sector almost all the job growth coming from the private sector. 228,000. average hourly wages up 0.3% unemployment rate ticking down into interesting and almost unprecedented levels here, 3.8%. labor force participation also ticking down we've not had huge growth in the workforce. no holes to poke here. these numbers are phenomenal let's look at where the jobs were 39% in education and health services that's where the jobs always are. retail up 31,000 a sector otherwise left for dead construction also strong many benefitting from good weather. lees youleisure/hospitality. and the strong jobs number offsets and then some the concern earlier this week. take a look at the probabilities for the june rate hike t

will it really pay off in the long run steve liesman asking those questions in the cnbc all america economic steve? >> reporter: michelle, thanks very much. our cnbc all america economic survey finding americans losing that school spirit specifically, the college school spirit take a look at the question we asked in 2013. what would you recommend for your son or daughter pretty comfortable margin for the traditional four-year college. 58% to 42% right now, a little bit of division in america. 51% to 49% let's look at who is where wi different demographics that we have here. over my left shoulder, democrats, 60% in favor of college versus republicans, 40%. those who went to college, 66% in favor of college, versus 42% among non-college. income, as you go up in income group, they favor going to college more so than those in e $30,000 to $75,000 if not college, then what? take a look at what this 49% think. you can see right here, a growth in those who support trade or vocational schools compared to 2013 we asked the question another way. is a four-year degree worth it, do you think and so the

certainly the president has pushed for 3% growth will he get it our steve liesman joining us now withts of the cnbc survey >> according to our cnbc fed survey, the president will get close enough for rock and roll he's looking through 3% and the number is, for 2018, 2.93% we going to call that even >> round up? >> round up. 3% to the nearest whole number followed by 2.8%, 2019, that's quite a bit better than we did7. here are the unemployment numbers expected by our panel of 38 economists,trategand hedge fund managers. about equal with the fed's goal. okay what about the chance of recession? ifs t it is the third lowest in the years we've been tracking this so 13% was the lowest january 2015, so 13.8% several months ago, now 13.8% so very low possibility. this number averages aut 20%, which is actually the real average for a recession, 1 efivo here are the top line results. rate hike in june. then we get disagreements. 3.5% is the number expected in 2018, which s you that half of folks in the survey think there's going to be 4% this yea be 3%. 2019, same debate, 3% versus 2 % with an

. >> steve liesman, thank you for laying some of the facts out there. >>> trade tensions, tariff tirades peace all front and center this morning, but stocks are, for the most part, higher the dollar is a bit weaker is the market ignoring se of the trade risks? joining us is allen rusken, along with libby camp at deutsche bank. good to see you both libby, why doesn't wall street seem to mind i get that geopolitical noise is tuned out, but we were talking about trade and there's a real cost in economic benefits. >> this is something we have been talking about since president trump got elected. that you have to take president trump seriously on trade and i think that was in full view at the g7 summit this weekend. you know, i think in some ways the markets, the equity markets, are not convinced that these things are actually real, right? in terms of the rhetoric versus the action, we have seen a lot more rhetoric to date than we have seen the enforcement actions. the june 1st tariffs on canada, on mexico and really the most significant adversarial trade action we have seen to date. >> what

president cheerleading the economy saying that by some mreasures it's better than it's ever been steve liesmane with a closer look >> president trump now going where economies had feared most, escalating the trade disputes to a place where the totals can have a measurable impact on u.s. and global growth along with inflation. >> if you were to have $400 billion of tariffs executed, not just discussed, but actually executed, you're probably talking about 4/10 off global gdp >> previously, the administration argued and most economists agreed the amount as under discussion were not enough to move either the gdp or inflation needles. the primary concern was about sentiment and uncertainty. oxford economics writing this. china has quickly vowed to retaliate. and it would have significant economic impact. the probability of a full blown trade war between the world's two largest economies is rising. oxford says it can't rule out that cooler heads will prevail and that's been a part of the market trade for quite a while, but oxford says if they don't, the tariffs can receisave 0.3 of chinese growth th

steve liesman has taken a closer look at that. >> the administration has created head spinning turnspect market we looked at all the 1% moves. let's look at the negative ones. these are moves of 1% or more to the downside in the dow. there have been 17 this year i'm hiding it -- i'm goingo reveal it now. eight ha been because of trade according to most major news sources. about half of related to trade moves. that cost the dow 258 points i'm sure the administration knows about the effects. what about the upside, the 1% or more moves to the upside 19 this year 5 have been related to trade, according to major news sources adding become 2 ab 122s. not quite even today may not en in our universe that we look up because it is not a 1% move. it's intng sarah because more and more you hear people say these are not negotiating tactics these moves by the president this is what the president wants to have happen at some point you are going to lose the ability to bounce back at least to gain the losses from the day before we may be seeing that. >> a mark to mark business will the president's la

steve liesman has more on what those are and what it could mean for markets and the economy. >> there'se trade war could escalate and become meaningful in terms of world and global trade but it's t that right now. the biggest effect is on sentiment and investment that it could undo the positive impacts. the second order impact of tariff increases would be to dampen currently robust global growth momentum. fed officials say their contacts in industry are telling them it's causing some to question cap ex already >> concerns about changes in trade policy are arising, i think it's fair to say and also you're beginning to hear reports of companies holding off on making investments in hiring people >> and an interview this morning on squawk box, president trump's top economic adviser kevin hasset agreed tariffs have boosted uncertainty. >> we're in a period of uncertainty, and that period of uncertainty is visible in some places you can see it in lumber prices and steel prices and so on but the president's long-run object sieive is one all would share. think about the barriers in china. china

steve liesman joining us with the results of the survey. >> strong american economic optimism translatingbers on the economy for the president. 51% approve his handling of the economy. 41% approving overall. that's up two points but this one up here is up six points 47% disapprove of his handling of the -- overall job on the presidency that's down ten points but this number here, 36%, disapproving his handling of the economy, that's also down as well let's take a deep dive on the issues and see where americans agree and disagree with the president. let's talk about the best issues for the president here individual tax cuts, 60/26 are renegotiating trade deals, the public supports him on that. business tax cuts, 51% to 35% and deregulation of business, 47%, 34% where he doesn't do quite as well, immigration policies, repealing obamacare, still a negative, and bank deregulation does not poll well with the american public. moving on now, let's look at the best issues -- let's look at who gets credit for the economy. 55% say president trump. 12% say obama. this is among those who have positiv

steve liesman went to louisville to see how they are tackling the problem there.ey hrdout the country time hiring because workers lack the necessary skills and they have a program in louisville attempting to address the problem. and it starts in high school here at this toyota dealership in louisville, a lot of the service bays are empty not because there aren't you enough cars to fix, there aren't enough mechanics to do the fixing >> these are cars are computers. they are n the change the oil, change the belts. they are hooked up to a diagnostic machine you have to know how to read the codes. sometimes you have to know how to write codes >> reporter: it is a local example of a bigger national problem. the government reports a record 6.7 million job openingsnd businesses complain they can't find the skilled worke to do the jobs >> it is a high class problem to have, but it leads to other issues our economtethan tworkforce's ap >> reporter: that sparked as in a al debate about education. should kids learn trades in school or go on to get a college gree >> nve will

steve liesman joins us now from cnbc headquarters with the reaction to yesterday's fed meeting. you in that light-colored suit summer, good day for it. >> is it safe to say this basically the fed is the last to know they go to 2.7 yesterday, they finally -- are they always the last to know they don't want to be, in terms of their statements, i guess, they don't want to be ahead? they don't like forecasts. they like things to be almost in granite before they acknowledge it do i have that wrong was that a led line that we might be at 2.7 or 2.6 >> 2.8 is their number >> you're faster than they are >> we have the rapid update. you ask good questions as always i think the fed has a view of the world that gdp numbers will not change much relative to their outlook. they see this fiscal stimulus coming down, they waited on that, then upped their forecast when they saw the simplus picture, but they did not change the forecast for the years ahead. i want to talk about the ecb, they are set to announce, we think, the end of the quantitative easing program today. we should maybe get that a