steve liesman breaks it down. >> most person americans have been able to avoid thede war. but maybe not anymore. the imposition by the trump administration of $200 billion new trafrs on china could bring the trade war home literally. about 50% of the tariffs are on consumer goods. that includeser comp furn turs lamps and food products. meaning higher prices. and when prices ris people buy less so growth declines. economists debate the magnitude of the tariff impact nearly all think it's negative for gdp. that could bese ld if the tariffs are temporary and break downse trade restrictions. some peg it at a couple points of gdp. one forecaster said all thees u. ch tariffs combined with chinese retaliation could shave a half point off growth growth next year. some warned of recession.s mood wrote it's a material falling asset prices. recession outcomes possible. but not all economists were concerned. wells fargo says the u.s. economy will weather the uncertainty so long as business sentiment and consumer sentiment remain positive. how much it hurts depends on how fast the u.s.

our steve liesman is in washington ahead of that decision steve. >> the fed is expected to hike ratess you said by a quarter point. that will bring the new range between 2 and 2.25%. investors will look closely for hints in the statement of more hikes to come. markets expect another increase in december and they're puzzling and debating how many hikes, two, three or four come next year these are decisions made by people the fed has some new faces so let's meet the new fed here of course on the federal reserve board of governors, there's jerome powell. and he was -- you can see what the administration has been doing here, picking people with different expertise. richard clarida will be in the meeting for the first time richard quarles and there's lael brainerd and we asked where do the guys stack up in terms of the hawk/dove index. you can see most people see these two new folks in the middle of the spectrum they're pretty much in line with quarles, just a touch more hawkish. then let's look at the nominees. there's nellie lang from brookings, 30 years at the fed, was in charge of fina

the latest cnbc fed survey is out ahead of tomorrow's statement and press conference our own steve liesmanghlights. mr. liesman in d.c. getting ready for the big meeting tomorrow >> getting ready doing my push-ups and pullups and getting the blood flowing, ready to go look, the rest of the year is coming into pretty good focus here pretty good agreement on the street among our participants in the fed survey what happens the rest of the year it includes two rate hikes take a look at the fed expectations 98% agreement this time around and then i'm very surprised to see all this agreement, but that's where they think the fed is going here. average number of hikes, call it four for 2018. but 2019 is where the question is two hikes and then they're debating whether or not you get a third hike there here's some commentary we got. fed funds increases in september and december are as certain as certain can be but the fed's real challenge starts after the first increase in 2019 which will bring the rate to 2.75% or finally back to even to inflation. take a look where our panelists are versus where

steve liesman has more. >> reporter: the federal reserve raising interest rates to a new range of 2.25%ling another rate hike by december. jay powell was clear why the fed is taking this action. >> our economy is strong growth is running at a healthy clip growth is running at a healthy clip unemployment is low, the number of people working is rising steadily, and wages are up inflation is low and stable. all of these are very good signs. >> fed officials on average forecast rate also rise another 75 basis points next year and finish above 3%. but powell also said there are risks out there to raising rates and risks to not raising rates if we move too quickly we can snuff out a recovery and inflation falls short of its 2% target or if we move too slowly, we have an economy that can overheat that's happened through history, we don't see any signs of that now, we're always trying to navigate between those two and we think that gradually, you know, raising interest rates is the way that we take both of those risks seriously. >> powell did not seem overly concerned by high stock market value

always appreciate it steve liesman in d.c 2:00 p.m. eastern is our fed decision followed by a news conference full coverage here, of course, on cnbc. >>> when i asked liesman whether december was in stone, i saw some hemming and hawing over here, you're not so sure the market is good with that is that what i saw >> i think the market is unsure of that. i think there's a lot that can happen in the next three months where the committee could pull that 25 basis points back. so maybe the expectations right now are a little bit too optimistic that it's going to happen there is a lot in the next three months that are going to unfold that can change their minds, and i do think there is a sensitivity about inverting the yield curve. i think they're aware of it. it looks like it's positioned to do so. i think that's another between the mid-term elections, trade and the other things that are challenging right now. >> kris? >> i think the real question -- i think december, i agree it's largely baked in i think the market is expecting it >> decemb

to steve liesman now who has breaking news. steve? >>> scott, thanks very much.ontinued gradual increases in fed funds rates are likely to be appropriate. she also says the fed could hike rates above the neutral rate and the reason, as she points out, two things a tail wind for the economy may push up rates and force the fed to go above its gauge of neutral between 2.5 and 3.5% the yield curve may result flat or inverted. she's not worried because the yield curve will not send the same recessionary signal as in the past because of lower rates and because of the term premium as well. she goes on to say -- she goes on to say the fed would not hesitate to act more decisively if inflation should come in higher on the economy brain ard says growth is strong the fed is meeting employment goals but points out a bunch of notable risks here let me give them to you. financial vulnerabilities are building she says the risks are notable in the corporate sector. she points out low spreads on corporate bonds and leverage lending again is on the rise developments present down s

steve liesman has more. >> reporter: as the flood waters from hurricane florence continue to rise, so do the costs, in lives lost, homes an communitier hed and tens of billions of economic damage. not expected to crest until tomorrow. istoric levels will continue to rise and lift the cost of the storm. >> one inc in a home can cause $25,000 worth of damage so what we're seeing here is going to certainly be an extreme event amd policyholders are going to have a lot ofe when they get back to their homes. >> reporter: while charlotte is the biggestity to be hit, it's the 17th largest where harvey hit houston. the weather effects in florence were so widesprea that jpmorgan suggests the way to think of it is the fgdp both states of north and south carolina and that's bigger than houston, smaller than new york which was hit by sandy. it will cause deep pain in the local andnal economies but rarely have much lasting impact on the broader economy. some damages areade up through building and rekoupg spending. hundreds of thousands of cars were rd in hurricane harvey. that prompted a massive re

wrapping up his news conference taking a number of questions from reporters, including our very own steve liesman steve joins us now with the highlights steve, what did you hear that stood out? >> you know, i heard a chairman who didn't answer a whole lot of questions, but he doesn't have a whole lot of questions to answer for. the economy is running very much the way the federal reserve predicted it would they are hiking rates the way they said they were going to hike rate in the market, and the market does not seem that concerned by, it so there isn't really an edge to the question, and there's no real sort of demand for an answer here's how he explained when asked like what is behind the good growth we have right now. >> some of it is no doubt the effect of the fiscal policy changes, the tax cut and the spending increases that's got to be part of the story. part of it may be higher oil prices which are calling for more investment in the oil patch, but, be you know, the growth picture is very much supported by very high readings of household confidence, business confidence, so it's a -- it's a

for nightly businessreport,'m steve liesman in washington. >>> interest rates influence everything from theconomy to the financial markets. so what could the path of rate hikes mn for your investments? david leib wits is a global market strategist at jp morgan when we talk about the rate hike what will we expect to be the impact on the overall economy. >> think that the fed, to chairman powell's point, is trying to move gradually trying to telegraph what they are ing. with eight rate hikes since 20153 we have a seen a slowed 199auto and hom spending. the rates are taking hold on certain sectors of the u.s. economy. growth has remained relatively robust given all the fiscal stimulus pumped into the but as rates move higher you could see the more interest rate sensitive sectors like housing and autos come under pressure. >> we saw that utilities. are we expecng to see that markets, stocks with equities e here that peoight be invested in in the 401(k) >> i think that equities it's important to draw a line between the stocks that benefit from higher interest rates and stocks coming under pr

a quarter point interest rate hike is widely expected, and steve liesman is standing by uptown in washington hi, steve. >> tyler, thanks very much we are ready for what's expected to be the third rate hike bringing the fed funds rate between 2% and 2.25% and maybe bracing for a fourth rate hike in december. take a look at the cnbc fed survey 98% of our respondents saying they'll hike today 96% saying they're going to hike again in december. and that's why you see there an average of four rate hikes expected and then the big debate, as melissa was suggesting, is it two, is it three or maybe even four rate hikes in 2019. i want to share with you a comment here from goldman sachs that points the way here they said inflation is at target, the unemployment rate is below target and falling, and yet the funds rate remains 100 basis points below the fed's estimate of its neutral level. most fomc participants now agree that this makes little sense, the fed has some catching up to do and how much they do and they think they have to do we'll get today because we are going to get new forecasts for both

for nightly business report, steve liesman. >>> it is time to look at some of today's upgrades and downgrades. intel was downgraded to sell from mket perform at raymond james. the analyst cites manufacturing issues. and the firm expects t problems to last for a while. nhe analyst depose not have a price target the stock which fell 2% to 49.91. dollar tree was downfwraded to neutral from boy at bumming ham. the analyst cites challenges and under performance .price target is 92. the stock fell a fractioo 85.26. >>> color ox was upgraded to buy from hold at argue us. the analyst there cited innovation at the company aot thetial for increase in revenue as a result. price target now $175 but despite that upgrade the stock fell act fn to 149.64. raisedzon's price target again, this time to $2,350 at jeffers. the analyst cites the new initiatives and growth opportunities. the fm did maintain its buy rating. the stock gained nearly 2% today and closed at $1974.55. >> still ahead, political drama. but not in washington. in london. and it could he economic consequences. >>> political drama islaying out

maybe steve liesman has t to -- k.b.u realize. k.b. home is better and not the rest of the business >> it was a fed day and we would be talking about it weeks before and all we talk about today. it is a reflection of the times. you never been that -- you like under line corporate profits more is there anything we need to pay close attention today with powell >> well, i guess what he says about trade and tariff if he talked about general why he need higher rates, you can't look at the two industries that's dependant on as reason why you should raise because both industries are not doing that well. k.b. home is not representative of what people feel in the history which is it is peaking i think housing is good but i defer to the stock market which tells me housing is not good >> jim, we'll get more from you and filling in all these blanks, "squawk on the street," in a couple of minutes. >> instagram apparently have a drug problem we'll tell you that problem in just a moment. don't ferg to tuorget to tune i today for jay po

steve liesman pieces it together. >> reporter: despite a decades of low employment rate and higher wages americans who dropped out of the labor force are defying expectations and not coming back at 3.9 petros the unemploymentright rate is as low a 80s as it's been in two decades but the participation rate, the% of the population t sayiy want to work, has been stuck for nearly three years a around 63%. that's the level it was back in 1977 before women came streaming into the workplace. what's happening is that the strong labor market brought some people in the prime working age of 25 to 54 back into the worker workforce. but it's not enough to offset the baby boomer reitees more of whom are picking up golf clubs every day and retiring. >> we are not getting enough of a return for the workforce to offset the forces to be in play for the next two decades. u.s.e question is can the bring any workers off the sidelines to staff the strong growth in the ecomy? there is no one size fits all solution. foreomen i think employers h to offer more flexible work. many of the women out of the abor forc

steve liesman joins us with that story. >> ten years later, they say, they would mostly do it all oversury officials say faced with the same kind of facts, another lehman crisis, financial crisis, they largely say they would respond to the crisis as they did before we get on to some of the caveats of how they would do it differently, let's look what they did interest rates down to 0 they did quantitative easing, 1.75 trillion, with a t, in the first go round the economy still didn't respond. then they did the second round, qe2, another $600 billion in 2010 six years after the crisis, they got done, started 2012 qe3, finished six years later, bringing the balance sheet up to 4.4 trillion if you look here, very carefully, you can see just the beginning of the fed finally beginning to bring down its balance sheet and you would also see them raising up interest rates. that was not all they did. there was much more. let's go down memory lane here 47 billion, maximum amounts. maiden lane, pdcf, primary dealer credits, all these other programs seems like they came out one day at a time, new p

. >>> steve liesman has been sorting through all the numbers. eve. >> hey, carl, i've been doing this a long time, maybe as long as you a lot of times you get the president'sed advisor come on ad i have to redirect a little bit. this is a special case, because pretty much all the analysts on wall street agreed with kudlow's assessment of the jobs report. there aren't too many holes in this i'll show you one or two let's look at the numbers that everybody's talking about. that larry was, according to wall street economists correctly crowing about in the last half hour there's 201 on the payrolls, we keep adding 80,000 or 90,000 to the workforce, so we keep putting more people back to work unemployment rate, 3.9%, labor force down a bit look at the three-month average. it's been coming down a bit, but it's still in the really strong numbers. nobody's concerned about that, being above 150, 135, those are very strong numbers. and where the jobs are, big addition for education, health services, construction which has been doing quite well. manufacturi

get ready, because we're helping leading companies lead with digital. >> let's get to steve liesman. you, steve, especially with the elon musk stuff but take it away. >> thank you, joe. i am here with eric rosengren. what do we got there >> i know you right. >> joe, you beat me. >> i did. >> let's talk about this other stuff on the back end. let's do an interview with a leading and important federal reserve official here. eric rosengren, thanks for joining us. >> nice to be here. >> let's set the table where are we we did 4.3% gdp in the second quarter, our indicators suggest a 3 plus percent in the third quarter. >> i'm not changing potential, but i would agree the economy is doing very well. we also expect growth to be around 3%. unemployment rate's already at 3.9% we have the employment report this morning and inflation is right at 2%. we're exactly where we want the economy to be right now. >> i always go back, and we get to do this at least once a year. i went back and looked at the old interview. we didn't have the tax cuts back then, we have them now, you thought we were at ful

trade deficit posting its biggest monthly increase in nearly 3 1/2 years, our steve liesman joins us th why that might be a good sign for growth, those trade numbers today, steve >> reporter: sara, it's the opposite it surged in july 9.5% and this now politically charged number hitting $50 billion. that's the largest number since february year to date up 7% to $337 billion over the first seven months of the year is it really a bad sign for the economy? the trade deficit, the excess of imports over exports, has been about constant as a percent of the economy for the past eight years and that's contrary to those who say it's getting worse. go back to '98 it only improves during recessions and worsens or gets larger when growth picks up almost all the time. that's because more inputs from abroad are needed when the economy grows and more growth gives americans money for imports. the trade deficit by country shows that canada has a surplus if you take goods and services together and the european union far more modest than china where the trade deficit is a point and a half of u.s. gdp the

bullets in the chamber >> they dropped the accommodative word i was listening to the coverage, steve liesmanlways nailed it at the top on "power lunch." here's the thing, i read two schools of thought on the fed. one is by dropping accommodative will they cool off or are they going to play more fast and loose and kind of let it ride? i don't know which one what was your interpretation of the fed yesterday? if you're in the second camp, inflation is a worry >> i don't think they'll let it go i think powell is a bit closer to the vest than the previous couple of feds >> very measured very guarded >> and he's a market guy i don't think he'll let inflation run away i think he'll stick to his mandate as he states and i think he will continue to normalize rates. i think art cashin on your network made a very nice comment about it being goldilocks. he is saying interest rates are just right they're getting into the just right area it's not a bad thing we're up in that 2% area that's the lower end of normal levels that's where we are. but then we start going higher, then you get into trouble with in

deliver its third rate increase of 2018 later today with analysts anticipating a quarter point hike steve liesmane down the results of the fed survey. >> amid concerns over tariffs, inflation and rate hikes, wall street is looking this year and next for modest stock market gains and solid economic growth. the cnbc fed survey shows participants forecasting 3% growth this year, slowing to 2.8% in 2019 unemployment will keep ticking lower according to the 46 respondents. >> it seems to me the market has done a good job of saying we'll worry about these tariffs when there's evidence they're harming the economy. and until then, let's focus on what we do know and the economy is strong, earnings are really strong >> the group forecasts we'll be above the 3,000 level. the ten-year treasury is forecast to rise to 3.5% from the current level of 3.1 as the fed pushes up its benchmark short-term interest rate there is another half point of hikes from fed through the end of 2018. with the tax cuts and deficit spending, most think the fed will have to raise rates high enough to slow the xli doeconomn and ward

he will talk to steve liesman and let us know what he sees in the economy right now.lk to sal kahn, we'll talk to him about education, back to school and what is happening to people going online to the kahn academy. >>> and kevin brady will talk to us about taxes 2.0 we'll get the chance to ask him if he wrote the op-ed, since everybody else is saying they didn't write it. >>> and we have scott gottlieb, the head of the fda, the commissioner there, dr. scott gottli gottlieb he threw out an interesting statement at a conference that kicked things into a fury when it comes to almond milk, soy milk, he said as far as he knows almonds don't lactate that has all kinds of people in the industry worried about what will happen he said they will be looking to modernize standards for when you can call milk milk if it doesn't lactate, is it milk >> with representative brady, on a serious note, maybe -- i would love to hear his views on if he thinks the oil thing is slowing down houston is his district. it's still an oil town >> i know. the tides rise and dip along with oil and e

. >> steve liesman, cnbc, thank tk you, mr. chairman. you explain how the stock market being at all-time high, corporate spreads being very tight, how does the level of the market factor into your decisions to raise interest rates? is there a concern on your part? sort of a second and related part, can you tell us what happens in 2020 and 2021 that, i know you can't tell us, you're shaking your head, that prompts you, the fed to think that the rates need to still be above neutral in that time period? thank you. >> sure. so in terms of financial markets and monetary policy we, as we say in our statement every cycle, we do take financial conditions into consideration because financial, broader financial do affect the broader economy. they're one of many things we take into account. the part of it that we control though is what we do with the federal funds rate and that has effects through full interest rate curve and financial prices generally. the answer we take everything into account and broader financial conditions are one of the thing

becky, back to you >> thank you very much steve liesman has been pouring over these numbers too whatou seeing? >> well, well, well, look. i don't know that from a quarterly gdp standpoint we care very much if people spent a lot in july and maybe less in august. >> how big were the revisions to july >> it was up 0.2%. i'm terrible at doing math on television if i could take a break, i could give you what it was but it was not a whole lot different from the combined average of the two months. clearly what happened is people spent a lot in july and they took a break in august >> i guess the august numbers could get revised too. >> absolutely. but just to be clear, what we're talking about here is we had a revision from 0.5% in july to 0.7%. so there's a tenth difference on -- but i do see a lot of goose eggs here and negatives for the month. vehicle hs a tough month furniture had a tough month. food and beverages, all zero gas station up 0.7%. if you saw on the import prices, we had a negative on imported petroleum. those are kind of evening out for the moment clothing has been troubled

the fed rate decision is tomorrow steve liesman joins with us a preview of what to expect. k this without the rest of the year look at the one in december. look at the fed expect aches in the cnbc survey. 98% look for the hike in september. 96% which is good agreement and four rate hikes expected in '18 and 2.5 tells you that half of the men and women think there is three and 3.92 the director of fixed income at has been areford in response to the survey, the fed funds increase in september and december are as certain as certain can be the fed's real challenge starts after the first increase in 2019 which will bring the rate to 2.75 or finally back to even to inflation. here is the outlook for the economy. what you see is a 3% growth for 2018 and not a drop off for 2019 as well. unemployment ticks down. inflation stays at 2.5% level. we asked folks will the fed go above neutral? the answer 58% said yes. 33 process% said no. they are looking for the fed to actually raise rates a bit to slow the economy tony from pimco writs the u.s. bond market will reach a decision point in

d.c you can continue watching that interview live on cnbc d.com and his documentary airs tonight steve liesmane been listening to and it echos the broad point of view that fb if youy from they got the policies right, they got the politics wrong. >> i'm a little amused by the conversation, i think andrew is asking can right questions i don't think there's a way to get the politics right if i call up and say dad i wrecked the car, how do you guild that particular lily these guys as far as most americans were concerned were in charge of the financial system whether or not they had any actual responsibility for its downfall we can debate but americans don't want to care or think about the financial system it reminds me of one of my favorite twitter feeds, you had only one job and people messing up the one john they had i'm not saying they messed it up but then you go to them and say we need $700 billion to bail out the financial system what is a happy way to say that, carl i don't know these guys i think did their job, in my estimation i think they did it well i don't think there was a way to sell

can't have market records without looking at the possible threats to the rally and that's where steve liesman comes in so what are you eyeballing here, steve? >> it's very interesting little doubt the market seems to be looking past some of the threats that in the very recent past would cause it to sell off, tariffs, higher rates, more fed rate hikes back in june we found almost half were linked to possible or actual tariffs now after the president imposed 10% tariffs on $200 billion of chinese goods, the mark has shrugged and rallied to all-time highs. some splapd explained it as thef levels below what the market priced in or the market decided tariffs don't matter as much as they thought the 10-year treasury yield now convincingly, this is not kansas anymore, trading over 3% with most of the increase happening by the way, right around the time the new tariff threats became news, which prompted many economists to raise their inflation forecasts. finally along with higher rates, yep, here it comes, better probabilities of fed rate hikes. we're call this full speed afed. i've got a laugh, than

steve liesman is here and has an update. >> one of those numbers, becky, where the number was weak but really strong. economists don't care when you spend the money during the quarter, as long as you spend it during the quarter the result of all of this is the cnbc rapid update tipped up. 3.3% yes, up. weak number but because they were vised up june the spending quarter is going quite well range 3.3% to 4.3% second quarter and, folks, don't look at this as a come down because we're very well above potential and have to put a big asterisk on this and how the hurricane will affect the economic growth. 4.4% for the atlanta fed morgan stanley 3.4% and hfe/mufg/goldman still rounding out the bottom at a still strong 3% 0.1% autos and july revised to 0.7. you really were off by a tenth you can see miscellaneous retailers. august 2.3 july down 2.3. electronics up 0.4 down 0.4 in july august, 0.2 for food and beverage and back in fourth year and a lot of weakness in july and weakness in august was great in july. all of this translating into a belief in the market and speaking last week with th

steve liesman joins us with more on that. >> one of the premises was that big companies are getting biggere jobs market. does it feel like it, because i can show you statistically that is true? take a look at what we did. look at the top ten companies by market cap in the s&p and took a percentage of the whole s&p and now we're at 24%, more interestingly, we're coming at a time where it was declining for a lot of years there and, tyler, when were we last up near this area here -- >> 1998. >> that kind of concentration. you can do the same thing folks if you look at a percentage of the total economy. we're now roundabout -- the market cap would be all s&p 500 companies is about 120% of gdp. that's another way to look at the expression on contessa's face. she's absolutely floored by that. so why does that matter economically it matters because the concern is that there are fewer and fewer companies -- and it may explain why wages have not kept pace with this tight job market. there's a concept we've talked about. its not new for all of our viewers, its called monopsony. it's a situation wher

kudlow's comments with senior economics reporter steve liesman and also austan goolsbee from the counsel of economic advisers under president obama. austan, larry said the biggest story of the year is the boom in the economy that few, if anyone, expected do you agree >> well, he did say that >> he sure did >> larry is an old friend of mine and of steve's, and we all love him he is a growth guy he's going to be prone to find that i mean, the first quarter of this year the growth rate was 2.2% and the growth rate in 2017 2.2% modest we had a good quarter. i hope he's right that that's going to continue. i don't know to call that the biggest story of the year when a lot of people think some component of that was just everyone rushing to get the exports out the door before the tariffs came in i think would be a stretch. >> steve, he said as well that there is a grand strategy on trade and a grand strategy with respect to trade with china. it seems like there are sort of counter veiling impulses that's what larry kudlow said. and on the other hand we want to hit them potentially with up to $2

are monitoring former tropical storm gordon and its impact on the gulf coast and big oil >> i'm steve liesmane in the july trade deficit. i'll break down the numbers and what it means for the u.s. economy. >> i'm sarah eisner in theranos is set to officially dissolve the company "the

let's bring in our senior economics reporter steve liesman. >> i got to reiterate my complaint from lastd i think the time before that we're growing 4.3% in the second quarter and 3.2% is the update for the third quarter. the fed still describes that as moderate or modest i don't know what it would take -- i'm going to keep hammering that until they change the language i want to say that i think it was straight up the right call here i think this is an escalation of their characterization of the problems with the labor force. this idea that it's widespread, that all the districts are reporting it i didn't hear her say that it's limited to skilled workers this was the mantra in the past. it's skilled and unskilled yet, i'm going to keep saying that, we're not seeing the wages go up. we did have that 2.9% wage number, but it's still on a real or adjusted basis about 0 or a little bit over. >> you're taking issue with moderate or modest which word would you use >> right now it's robust or strong even. >> if there was a beige book that came out with robust growth and price increases, we woul

. >> steve liesman is here >> i'm optimistic. >> the president deserves a victory lap.nd the track too many times that's my story. >> i have one observation. he's behaving exactly as he did during the campaign. no different, and he won what does that tell you? >> which is maybe why a majority of americans didn't vote for him. >> oh. >> remember that >> he won. he won, but don't talk about the will of the people here. >> this is good the so he won michigan -- romney didn't win that fla or ohio this guy won florida, ohio, pennsylvan pennsylvania let new york city and california elect the next president. that's great, steve. >> when you people stop sucking your thumb, come out of the corner -- >> i don't know what you mean by "you people," ken. what does that mean? people on the left liberals big government people? redistrict bugs people >> directly in the center who -- >> he's a centrist -- i supported before anybody was talking about it, i supported cutting the corporate tax rate what i didn't support is the way it raise d and boosting the deficit as much as it did illus

today because of the remains of hurricane florence how will the storm affect the national economy steve liesman the storm's costs. this is a tough one to pin down. >> it's still early. the cost will be in the tens of billions of dollars. not because a major stit wcity s hit. rivers have yet to crest in the carolinas. that means more damage to come it also means there are few estimates of the cost yet. it's just the 17th largest population compared to harvey that hit houston. the weather effects are so widespread, jpmorgan says think of this in terms of the gdp of both north and south carolina together and that's bigger than houston but smaller than new york which of course was hit by sandy that said, the typical effects of these storms cause deep pain in the regional economies but have little effect on the -- some are made up over time through rebuilding and recoup spending but not all. take a look here here's an example of auto sales after harvey it ruined hundreds of thousands of cars. but car sales shot up in the wake of the storm and trailed off over time. this did hit during the reference

, jim, thanks but we're still going to try we're going to get something out of this data it's steve liesman'shere have you got anything for us, steve? >> i got lemonade. i got an arnold palmer for you is that what it is the lemonade and -- i know you like that. this is a pretty important number i just want to kind of correct the way jim talked about it. it's less of a trade -- it's actually more of a trade deficit. in other words, it's $51 billion, that's the biggest trade deficit since february there have been a lot of things that have been playing with this number going back to the hurricanes of last year, you had huge imports to replace stuff that had been ruined in the storms move along to recently you had huge exports and imports, a lot of back and forth to get ahead of tariffs the other thing you have is you have stronger u.s. growth. guess what happens when you have stronger u.s. growth the trade deficit goes up. in fact i want to show you some numbers or a long-term track people talked about the trade deficit getting worse. if you look at the history -- that's not the one i wanted to

steve liesman is here and mark zandi is here with the numbers. >> 163.be the august payrolls rose by 163,000. that's a bit below the estimate and there was a revision, slight revision down by 2,000 to the very strong still in july. 217,000. you can see everything you need to know of the goods up 24,000, services continues to roll ahead, 139,000 but that 24,000 number's a good number for the good sector and there's the estimate for 192. we'll see if that comes down. now i want to look at business size. this is interesting and i think may be important. small businesses up by 21,000, but look at that medium number, up by 111,000 and large employees up by 31,000. we'll talk to mark about this. its not as sexy as saying small business but medium business has been leading the way on job growth. let's take a very good look on sector here, education always leading the way. leisure hospitality also a greater sign of disposable income. manufacturing is a strong number. president trump crowing about that number and the big gain in manufacturing employment. let's br

former white house counsel of economics adviser chairman and princeton professor alan krueger, also steve liesman and welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> so your study makes a lot of sense. if you've got anti-poaching clauses, if it impacts a big part of the consumer fast food chains, it means that workers are not going to be able to be mobile or get pay hikes from anywhere this was picked up by a lot of ags. what happened? >> it's amazing. a year ago my colleague and i wrote an article exposing this practice it's not only fast food chains also car repairs, hotels, other franchises have this kind of practice it would be clearly illegal if they were completely separate firms. firms are not allowed to get together and collude to agree not to hire each other's workers or to collude on pay this falls in a gray area. the fast food chains say that the franchisees are independent businesses they say they're not a joint employer yet they have this collusion practice we wrote about this and it was in "the new york times" and several attorney generals from states contacted us. the attorney general washing

. >>> as we mark the tenth anniversary of the financial crisis, steve liesman is here with a look atan brothers could have been saved and maybe the most common look back question there is >> it is and another question worth asking is whether or not it could be saved today all conversations as joe suggested about the financial crisis, you could start over here in left field you're going to end up discussing whether the investment bank could have been saved by the government and the federal reserve. our cnbc documentary tonight will show top wall street executives arguing it could have and should have been saved with the history told as by ben bernanke, tim geithner, and hank paulson. listen here. >> this argument that they didn't have the legal authority was never brought up that weekend. this argument that they didn't have the legal authority was created after the fact i believe and they said at the time that there was no political will to rescue lehman. >> they had the power. that was a decision. a decision they made to let lehman go. and i think the reason was that they thought the