percent but first, stocks falling on weak economic data let's get to senior economics reporter steve liesmanteve? >> wilf, soft economic data has economists looking for softer growth in both the prior and current quarter. several responding to the worse than expected durable goods lowering the tracking forecast for the fourth quarter down to 2% for the fourth quarter and now the q1 forecast, we don't have the data but the forecast 1.8% durable good orders, remember, this is december data that was delayed by the shutdown coming in below expectations, philly fed. they were up 1.2% and propelled by aircraft orders the business spending category, though, falling for the fourth in the past five months. and a key fed barometer, the philly fed manufacturing index going negative first time since 2016 now, st. louis fed president jim bullard in an exclusive cnbc interview saying the data within line of expected economic slowing but not worse than anticipated. >> we are expecting growth to slow down in 2019 relative to 2018 we are going do get 3% plus growth for 2018. 2019 probably suspect going to hi

steve liesman is in washington with the latest. hey, steve. >> hey, morgan, thank you very much lot of news in these minutes from the january meeting where it said almost all fed members wanted to reduce the balance sheet. and also the fed should announce before too long a plan to halt that reduction i interviewed the federal reserve governor last week, and she said she wanted to see the balance sheet reduction end last year we didn't know at the time she was speaking for a pretty big majority of the federal reserve for ending that balance sheet. a plan could come as soon as march. that's not in the minutes but more of an expectation from wall street the fed perceived that the markets felt they were too flexible on the balance sheet. they decided to be more patient and flexible that's why you had that new

steve liesman joining us from mississippi today. >>> small business optimism is at the lowest levelsce the weeks leading up to the 2016 election but that's not the whole story we'll go behind the numbers and see what they're seeing that others may not see, after this -i call it my comfortable future plan. -it's our confident forever plan. -welcome to our complete freedom plan. -it's all possible with a cfp professional. ♪ -find your certified financial planner™ professional at letsmakeaplan.org. [ ding ] show me just add magic. financiahey toothless.fessional [ ding ] [ gurgling ] [ ding ] show me cartoons on netflix. [ ding ] [ cooing ] [ door closes ] [ cooing ] ♪ [ ding ] show me fish on youtube. say it and see it with the x1voice remote. from netflix, prime video,youtube and even movie tickets. just say get "dragon tickets". >>> small business owners are getting a bit more nervous about the economy. that's according to the nfib optimism index the reading slipped about three points in january to the low of the level since before the 2016 election so what's stressing out small biz?

steve liesman gets us started tonight. >>> another day, another round of soft economic durable goods orders came in delayed from december by the government shutdown but below expectations, 1.2%.pr elled mostly by aircraft orders. the business spending category fell for the fourth in the past five months. a key fed barometer, the philly t negative for the or first time since 2016. but the st. louis fedin preside n exclusive cnbc interview said the data is in line with expected economic slowing, not worse than anticipated. we're expecting growth to slow down in 2019 relative t 2018. we're going to get 3% plus growth for 2018. h19 probably isn't going 2 .25. >> he was an early add vvoca of the fed ceasing its rate hikes. >> i'mha hopefulthis will set up the economy for a good -- a good continu expansion. this expansion is going to be the longest in the post-war era as of june >> he sees a higher chance of recession but it's not his base he thinks the u.s. can avoid a recession despite global economic weakness. in the meantime as that slowdown kes hold, there could be more days of bad da

>> let's send it now over to steve liesman in washington. orning steve, take it away. >> reporter: david, thanks very much i'm here inside the federal reserve, and we we are live with federal reserve governor lael brainard thanks for joining us here the retail sales number, disappointed, turned the market around does it cause concern for you to see a number like that being negative with the lowest number in nine years? >> certainly caught my eye certainly caught my eye. it's a miss. it's one month of data, so, you know, don't want to take too much signal from it, but certainly adds to a story where we want to take on board that there's downside risks at the same time we're still getting pretty good numbers, more recent numbers on payrolls. >> how does it fit in with your general view of the economy? did you believe the economy is decelerating is that part of that framework that you have? >> so i think going into this year we would have expected a solid growth figure, but a slower growth figure than the very strong growth we were getting last

we'll have much more on this with steve liesman in just a moment. >> can't we all just be patient. let's just be patient, okay. let's bring in julia coronado, founder of macro policy perspectives and lids young, senior market strategy with bni melon. julia, why don't you start you're looking at the words here so what do you see >> what i see is almost all participants thought it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing asset holdings later this year later this year, before too long means we'll get an announcement in march they will stop cutting the balance sheet later this year. >> that is one of the things that was part of the tightening that was going on. >> exactly. >> for most of last year. >> befuddled the fed. >> and the guy who is never befuddled about the fed is steve liesman, and he's had time now to look at some of this stuff. steve, what can you tell us? >> yeah, some of this stuff, tyler. what we're looking at here is the fed saw the growth risk increasing it saw consumer and business sentiment was lower, and it saw financial conditions had

steve liesman is back along with kevin koron. kevin, the whiplash refers to not only the fed's pivot but markets haven't given them any shades of gray on this when they've said no more rate hikes are coming what if the minutes say something more hawkish than that >> yeah, that would be a disappointment for sure. the market has moved to essentially price any rate increase from the fed out of the market we've come completely 180 degrees from where we were back in september when the fed was talking about a more aggressive need for more aggressive monetary posture and more rate hikes. so we've come full circle. the market is now anticipating positive things. if we don't get that, that could be a disappointment and the broad trends in the data seem fairly negative. we're sitting on the sidelines cautious at washington crossing advisers >> i wonder if one of the most significant events of the week will be the comments about the balance sheet. is the fact that she is a hawk sounds kind of dovish on that yesterday going to overshadow wha

steve liesman joins us steve, set us you can't. >> so it's a lot of misconceptions these are the economists, instead of, say, for example what the politicians say, number one, buybacks enrich the wealthy. sorry, that's wrong. it's an equality exchanges of shares for cash. we can talk more about that later. buybacks are good for the economy? well, that's really deposition they can be used for consumption, savings or investment or to a tech company that goes belly up number three, buybacks come tess expense of cap ex and workers' salaries that's true, but not precisely so worker pay is based on the labor market, based on expected returns and demand for what's being produced could be the corporate executives have incentives to do buybacks or paying workers more, but that's the fault of the board of governor, corporate governance and the shareholders. >> and actually the next segment we'll talk about some changes in corporate governance coming, too. jim, this is causing some of the confuse. if you look back at the biggest buyback since '209, the ones that have outperformed the s&p, including ap

. >>> janet yellen speaking to our own steve liesman today and there's something she said that has all of wall street talking. >>> plus we're following chipotle, map group and sonos with huge moves. >>> later, it's the cbd crackdown. we'll tell you why pot investors are running scared after the latest move from regulators and what it could mean for the future of these high-flying stocks we're live from times square in new york city. much more "fast money" right after this no worries boss, i'm one of the tattoo artists in the city. you mean one of the best tattoo artists in the city, right? something like that. yeah. uh, aren't you supposed to draw it first? stay in your lane, bro. just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network, according to america's biggest test. now with 5g e. more for your thing. that's our thing. weveryone, looknk isn'tat your phones. the design thinking, the digital engineering, security, blockchain, and we will be first to market! yes. when we do we launch? unfortunately, in 2 or 3, hours. why the delay? cogni

let's bring in senior economics reporter steve liesman, look with greg, a economics commenter at "the washington post. we'll get more into this, but the data this morning, especially on the consumer side has some economists say rate hikes broadband back in the picture. what's more important, do you think? >> i think that the fed is in a holding pattern. i think they're holding short of where they want to be. i think they would prefer to be at more of a 3% funds rate but i don't think there will be any change given the best way to put it is the totality i don't think they're going to be changing back in march, for example. we got a few clues from powell about the balance sheet. for the first time i believe he said about the $1 trillion estimate for banking reserves is reasonable it meejs they could stop the end of this year, maybe even short of the end of the year i throat he was more do muchish on this issue, people are coming back into the labor es, and that's a more dovish outcome. >> and, greg, you're picking up indications that they're trying to overshoot the inflation target >> i

a great job as fed chairman we'll hear from chair powell himself tomorrow and in the meantime, steve liesman joining us with more on this, steve? >> jay powell set for two days of testimony semiannual monetary report to congress he'll be faced with difficult decision with economy, trade and tax cuts a major issue. whether powell sticks to his upbeat view on the u.s. economy and argued the situation hasn't worsened, only the risks increased and those have come formula global economics and made worse by trade tensions and brexit, how much has been reduced because president is delaying higher tariffs on china. likely stick to the view that the fed can be patient in figuring out the next policy move on rates. with inflation running just below the fed's 2% target, despite strong growth and low unemployment, it could come into focus. the fed is revisiting its framework for policy including whether it should shoot for a higher inflation target to push up inflation expectations. vice chairman richard met with community members in texas today as part of a month's long fed listening tour on policies w

steve liesman is in washington with more. steve? >> reporter: jon, thanks very much a lousy retail sales report. we got to ask the fed governor lael brainard in that in an interview an hour or so ago, and what she said was that it is part of a lot of other risks out there, including global weakness, trade tensions, and other economic issues that are concerning her ultimately, she said the fed is in a good place in terms of being on pause and hold. let's look at the retail sales numbers she was talking about. down 1.2%. biggest drop in nine years, estimate up 0.1% if you look at the details, department stores were lousy, gasoline stations were down, even internet retailers didn't do well, they were negative as well here is some commentary. some of the commentary is skeptical about data oxford says retail sales puts a chill on the u.s. economy. amherst said consumer weaker, data is fishy. couple other comments i want to share as well. citi, retail sales plunge reinforces fed pause and not just a pothole, it is a major roadblock. one m

steve liesman, ylan mui and javers on the meeting with kim jong-un let's start with you. >> it was a relatively warm reception for president trump's top trade official at a committee that is led by democrats currently. most lawmakers on a bipartisan basis praised ambassador lighthizer by taking on the challenge of u.s./china relationship many lawmakers shared anecdotes from their districts as these trade talks drag on. some of these long-term, really tough changes are worth collateral damage in the short term. >> i always start with the proposition of do you think we have a problem with china? if you don't think we have one, then all of this is crazy. if you think we have a problem with china, then we have to weigh what is necessary to move forward. and in terms of what we're willing to accept, no, i don't think we should accept anything that doesn't have structural changes and isn't enforceable. absolutely not. >> some of those changes have been agreed to in more than three hours of questioning, lighthizer revealed a few details about where current things stand a deal currently bein

economy fourth quarter growth coming in better than expected and full year growth of just about 3% steve liesman is joining us live from an economics conference, in fact, down in washington with more steve? >> reporter: kelly, thanks very much a sequential weakening from the third quarter but well better than expectations, much less weakening than expected. about 2%, still 2.6% take a look at the details consumer was stronger than expected coming in at 2.8. business investment stronger 6.2. we've had sort of squirrely monthly numbers on consumers and business spending that these numbers are better than residential. you can see the housing market not really contributing from growth and wasn't very well led by government as well. 0.4% growth on the government level. one thing that did contribute was inventories. look at year over year, people expect inventories to roll off the weakening is expected to continue down to 1.9% as our cnbc rapid update for the first quarter and that's really just a slowing trend that's the expectation and part of that is the inventory. j.p. morgan said inventory surpri

us, brian levitt, senior involvement strategist, brian guard yer from washington research, and steve liesman john harwood we have quite the panel for you this morning steve, i want to start with you. the q4 number, much better than expected how does it sum up 2018 and how does it take us into 2019? >> pretty good number. you had a little more on the business side, a little at odds with monthly data, we'll square that out over time a big boost from government, big boost from inventory, little drag on trade. nice to see it not weakening as much as expected i see forecasts for first quarter come down, we'll get more as the day goes by. we're looking for below trend growth in the first quarter. see if people decide they were wrong in the fourth quarter that they'll be a little wrong to the up side in the first quarter that's not the case yet. however you get there, as long as you get to the place you need to go. it was a weakening fourth quarter but strong above trend growth. >> there's different methodologies how people are calculating this, where it stands in terms of the trump administration

steve liesman with the key take aways there. eamon javers is in hanoi at the president's north korea summit and elan is following the salacious hearing of the day can michael cohen. sima on the growing political tensions between two nuclear powers let's begin with kayla >> president trump's top trade official took three plus hours of friendly fire from the house ways and means committee where he received largely bipartisan praise tr taking on china and reveal ed a few details about a hypothetical deal. he said it would include agricultural purchases for several years and subsidies on products in oversupply like washing machines and solar panels those would end. although he said he thinks china is doing the opposite now and he said there would be a regular enforcement dialogue at all levels of government, but despite progress in these areas, he said there's much work to be done >> i'm not foolish enough to think there's going to be one negotiation that's going to change all of the practices of china or our relationship with them

steve liesman is here with more on that. >> thanks. markets months ago fretted about global ending their monetary policy global policy reversal, dialing back and some cases, even easing interest rates global trade tensions and concerns over brexit half a point to 1.2% some analysts now saying no hikes. u.s. officials still see the u.s. economy on solid footing but global economic weakness is clearly their biggest worry. >> you look at what the risks are and i think global risks are probably the most significant ones and that will be and i will be looking at over the next six months is how does that e involv volume' evolve >> australia's bank shifted to neutral and india lowered rates. easier for banks to lend you heard right here yesterday at this time, former fed chair janet yellen said that gathering global clouds could prompt the fed to cut rates as the next move >> steve, thank you very much. appreciate it. >>> what do all the headlines about trade talks and global growth mean for your next investment move? let's bring in craig hod

steve liesman back at headquarters so this is exactly what the markets wanted, right? right? pause? >> let's be clear. arguably the most important thing that's happened to markets in the last six months that is obviously ahead of the trade war. so yes, i think the fact that the fed also is allowing inflation to be defined differently, which allows them when they have to respond -- let's be clear, i think they still tilt to a hawkishness. we could still get a hike this year i'm not saying it's going to happen right away. but this allows the reaction effect for them to be perfect. they can say inflation is, yeah, we want it higher. >> i think they have left the building i think they are gone until somewhereless around the world -- they can't just keep hiking now and have the dollar get stronger i think until somebody else is out there to help, i don't think they're going to do anything i think the markets sort of like it you know, the president likes it not that they should care about that but i think they are gone unless something extremely dramatic happens. >> unfortunately, that's

steve liesman, cnbc, business news >>> let's get back to our chat with francois, cio of prime partners now, we just heard there a reminder of the heavy criticism that jerome powell faced throughout 2018 from president trump and, of course, now we've seen markets react quite well to the change in tone from the fed that we've really heard since december, but if you look at the data in particular friday's jobs report, it remains quite solid, so how long can the patient ethos of the fed last? >> i think at least for the first half of the year i don't think you that you can change course the way mr. powell did between december and january and move back to a restrictive course very shortly. i think that he is very wise in what he did in terms of really defining monetary saying, okay, we need to be data-dependent i think he was completely right in the way he acted in january. the data has been holding up relatively well. what didn't hold up were financial stock markets in december perhaps the real message that the fed are send sg less that they're data-dependent and that they're stock market

100 points let's start with yellen, former fed chair in an exclusive interview with our very own steve liesman moments ago. listen. >> would you say that it's possible that the next move is a cut by the fed >> of course it's possible if global economy weakens and that spills over to the united states or we do see a weakening in the u.s. economy it's quite possible that the next move is a cut. both outcomes are possible. >> fred michigan and sarah, thank you for joining us may have just lost sarah apologies. no doubt she'll be able to join us back in a moment. no, there she is my apologies, sarah. how likely do you think it is -- what is the balance of likelihood, excuse me, between a hike and a cut as the next move? >> so i think what you heard janet yellen say is pretty consistent with what jay powell has also been trying to position the fed for, essentially to put the fed and the economy on an even keel right now, a place where it can move either way you can imagine, i would say, a balance of probabilities being almost 50/50 in terms of either a rate hike or cut. >> i was listening to janet

we will continue to monitor this for more news and comments steve liesman. thank you. we'll go back to the hearing >> we need to work hard to make sure the message gets out clearly and that we find our people do listen, so we're alert to that. >> thank you i want to turn to a different question there has been talk about the unemployment rate, and participation rate which is increasing, talking wages and wage growth. there was recent data highlighted in a "the wall street journal" article that said despite these factors that income to employees in the form of pay and benefits continues to decrease, down to 52.7% of gross domestic income. by the same token, business income, profits too businesses, whether the biggest corporations or small businesses have gone from 12% to up to 20%. can you give me thoughts on why we're seeing more income going into the hands of owners in this country and less in the hands of workers? >> yes that's the labor share of income is what you're talking about really if you look back through history, it zigs and zags, but generally zigged and zag

. >> steve liesman is here with us you've seen him on the wide shots. weigh in on what we talked about already. >> i want to say as a reporter i gave cap x one chance, two chances, three chances, four chances, five chances. it's disan pointed me over the past five months it's been negative if you want to call it the chart there on capital spending, you'll see it's been negative four of the last five months something's happened and jim lampb thol's theory of the case is not bad. josh's theory of the case is pretty good too, it was never going to really happen but jim's idea maybe it was the trade thing which there it is, guys i mean, i don't see a cap x moving there i see something of a blip in april, may, june and july a little bit but look what's happened four out of the last five months. new orders are down. this is capital goods x aircraft it doesn't include r&d spending which has done better. the software stuff this is the equipment side josh's idea i think is also interesting that was easy. so your idea, josh, suggested it's possible. give it a lit

fornightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> now to something we have not talked about in byears, ak merger. two bb&t and suntrust agreed to combine, creating the sixth largest financial instituon in the untry. believe it or not, it is the biggest u.s. bank deal in a decade. wall street liked what it heard. both stocks gained. suntrust was up 10% today, bb&t was up 4%. wilfred frost has more os thi $66 billion deal. >> the combination of bb&t and suntrust will be one of the dominant forces in the southeast region, becoming the third biggest bank in the area by deposit. it falls behind bank of america an wellss fargo whose sto declined in light of the extra competition, as did jpmorgan who has a big presence in florida. the deal strikes a perct sweet spot. it will not be subject to more stringent regulation because n's big enough to be considered strategically important. and there are plenty of cinsin y synergies the ability to close branches. it will also allow increased investment in technology, a key areaighted by bb&t ceo, kelly king who will serve as chairman and ceo of the c

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman in washington. >>> scott brown joins us now to talk about those minutes and fed policy overall. he's chief economist an raymond james. scott, thanks for joining us tonight. >> my pleasure. >>n those minutes they also express surprise at the d tline stock market in december as it seemed that the market misunderstood theirpolicy, that maybe they weren't as hawkish as the stock market seemed to think. do you think the market has been wrong about fed policy? >> i think that you've certainly seen a very heightened lev of sensitivity to even minor changes in the fedouook. back in december, you know, in his press conference that policy meeting, fed chairman powell said that the low inflation outlook would allow the fed to be patient so used e same language in january. so really i a don't think it wa drastic change. the fed has gone from sort of a mild tightening bias to essentially wha is neutral. and the bottom line is that the future fed policy decisions will be data dependent still. >> right. and there were some today and there have been f

for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> ami number of ecos and business surveys say that the odds of asi rec are rising and that it could happen later this year or next, but a couple of hedge fund managers today said tt's not necessarily the case. >> everybody is worried about a recession. i don't think that's happening at all. i do thinkou're goi to have slower growth. what that means is at least for most people, feel that.g to it's not going to feel as if things were as good as they were last year,t's just going to be slower. conditions would normally lead t a big market decline just don't seem to be presenting. conditions that lead to a big market decline? the stocmarket spells an oncoming recession. recession is in the cards. economic owdown,yes. >> so what do we know about the economy and where it might be headed? we're joined by patrick havanick. welcome back. >> nice to see you, sue. >> housing is a perfect example. you ge starts going one way and home sales the other way. net-net how do you view the economy and conflicting data? >> first off, it's important to rem

the number of hikes this bear will far fewer than once thought.n todayn exclusive interview with steve liesman, the former chair of the federal reserve said something else that got our >> would you say that it's possible the next move is a cut at the fed? >> of course it's possible. if global growth really weakens and that spills over to the united states while financial conditions tightenore and we o see a weakening in the u.s economy, it's certainly possible that the next move is a but both outcomes are possible. >> now, ms. yellen iso longer a policy maker and says the u.s. economy is currently strong, but she does understand, of course, how the economy works and how weakness overseas could potentially make its way to th >>> while many economists do say the u.s. economy is solid, cracks may be starting to form. in other umrds, ar of companies are reporting higher costs right now. while that may seem innocent enough, it could mean big problems for corporate america's bottom line.pi boni takes a look. >> rising costs are beginning to eat into profit margins, an now an unusual development is p

for" "nightly business repor i'm steve liesman in washington. >>> let's turn to andrew hollandhorst for his analysis of this data. he is the chief economist at citi.ha andrew,s for joining us tonight. >> thanks very much, bill. >> everybody has got their opinion about what this numbermenumb meant. it's only one month but it a humiss. what do you make of it? >> it's an ugly surprise for valentine's day,el unfortun this number was a lot weaker than we were expecting but i think you have to be careful here. as an economist you're always trying to separate what is an e trending andm what is telling you something about maybe a new trend we're moving to. strong job growth, strong income growth has been driving strong consumption growth. we saw that in november. you had this weakening in december in this one report so i governor e with brainerd that you have to take it seriously. msbut in t of is it telling us something really different about the strength of the consumer? i don't think we can conclude that, at least not everything else we're seeing is sending a message of strength. here are so

janet yellen is going to be sitting down with steve liesman.n expect to hear tonight in the state of the union. let's get more from david bianco also our guest host mohamed el-erian from allianz. >> the record that steve just laid out, how do you look at this from an up high perspective on the economy what does the president have to talk about >> there's been an acceleration on the economy post the election and also predating the tax cut but post-the election. inventories tend to be a swing factor in all economies. i think it's interesting that equipment where investment spending is the second largest whether it be software, r&d, that has all picked up there's been swings on energy investment spending. but we've seen businesses step up their spending on software, r&d, and what i call productivity enhancers i definitely think there's been improved confidence to invest. >> i would say labor market, labor market, labor market i would stress that because go back to the earlier discussion on inequality and the sense of insecurity that people have. s

steve liesman is here.>> i'm wondering if two things were going on, you had rolloff of the shutdown rise in claims but you might have had others come in as well which is a long way of saying we need a couple weeks for the data to clear. i don't know what the steady state is because you can -- we didn't have an initial pop in claims that i would have expected i want to talk about the other story we're monitoring which is the global slowdown story which we've had the bank of england come out lower its forecast for 2019 yesterday the eurozone did it. earlier last month -- in december the federal reserve did it ranly quarrels last night, the vice chairman for bank supervision talked about the biggest terrific the u.s the biggest spark is this -- >> you look at global risks. i at least will be looking at over the course of the next month is how does that evolve. >> zblelz an interview with me yesterday also made global risk the number one issue let's talk ant the pound the pound fell on the uk growth and then it

steve liesman has the story for us tonight from moorehead, mississippi. >> reporter:rwo fires in th homes in the mississippi delta left thara appleberry and her two girls in destitute and in bankruptcy. >> we have to pray. we prayed in unison because i didn't wanto lose another home. and one of my gls said, mama, it's going to be all right. god got us, that t this shall pass. >> reporter: and along, literally, came hope, a credit unionocused on economically distressed areas in the south that brings basic bankingrv es to the nation's poorest. >> the rate of poverty here is three times what you see inti t as a whole, even greater for the region's afriren-american dents. if you look at level of banking servic, three times the level of people who don't have a banking account. and when you add the number of people who use check cashers and pay their lenders, almost between 60% and 70% of the members who joined our credit union were outside the banking synem or the edge of the financial system, paying high ras or did not have basic tools to support their families andtabilize their financial liv

jobs report we're less than 90 minutes away from that coming out let's get a preview now from steve liesmann expect morning, steve >> good morning. this is going to be a jobs number that's going to be as tough to understand once it comes out as it has been for economists to forecast january has massive transitions in a normal time that's because of the layoff of seasonal workers, add the shutdown, the question whether the economy really is weakening on top of that and there's a recipe for potential confusion here here are the numbers expected. 170,000 which is quite a bit of a slowdown from the prior three-month average of 254,000 unemployment estimate, 3.9%. who knows. maybe a tick higher, maybe lower. the hourly average wages in at 0.3%. adp payrolls up. let's look at the things that could influence this list. government shutdown. we don't know what's happened to the private contractors. some of them may have layoffs there. also maybe some companies needed permits to do business it was a strong december are we going to get some payback from that? the reference week which is the week of 12

steve liesman is monitoring fed chairman powel kayla tausche is watching representative lighthizer'sntly on china and our trade with that and yewy is following the michael cohen testimony and let's start with steve liesman and what is day two of chairman powell's testimony. >> the testimony could be more contentious as he takes some more testimony from new committee members, some that are more ideological you can see here from this chart that we have, i believe it's 16 new democratic members with 18 members returning with five new republican members, most of whom you can see right there. of those 16 new democrats, 12 are new in congress all together five new republicans on the commit, but all of these are returning congress folks whatever the questioning, powell can be expected, i think to stick to his main theme on monetary policy. >> the committee has decided that with our policy rate in the range of neutral, with muted inflation pressures and some of the downside risks that we've talked about, this is a good time to be patient and watch and wait and see how the situation evolves.

from the strength of the economy, the president's dinner with the chair she's standing by with steve liesmansteve, take it away. >> you're so smart first question i had thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me here >> tijust talking about the di r dinner the that chairman powell had. you met with president trump a couple of times and with president obama a couple of times. what are the pitfalls? why is it such a sensitive thing for the fed chair and the president to meet? >> because the fed is independent and it's important for the public and for market participants to understand that the actions that the fed takes are in response to its congressional mandate of maximum employment and price stability there is some history of presidents trying to influence the fed and reportedly makes an influence start to burn. so it's important for the sake of the fed's credibility and confidence in the institution. is why meet at all if you have those concerns >> well the person of course is concerned about the economy and it's very natural for the president to want to hear the fed chair's views on t

factors except for trade it seems like that's what we're looking for. >> i would agree >> and steve liesmanf i should take off the set >> he introduced barry and didn't introduce steve he goes like this. >> should i be here? >> i'm not used to the whole page break thing >> i see steve over there. no, i think that when you think about potential legislation or even administrative actions from the administration this year, gse reform holds some interest once he's confirmed, the question that was asked today was an excellent one >> thank you. >> it will be interesting and important to the markets as to how that plays out but trade policy is really the only matter of business as it pertains to things that really are impactful for the markets. >> do you think right now it is suppressing risk appetites or market valuations? >> i think you could make an argument that business confidence has taken something of a hit what i like to look at is the capital spending plans from the regional fed surveys those are still up near highs. but there was "the wall street journal" small business survey that took

steve liesman joins us with more >> jerome powell's testimony today could be more contentious as he'lll. here's powell facing new faces 16 new democrats 12 of which are even new to congress compared to 18 returning numbers of course there's a new chairperson there. i don't know if she goes by chairwoman of chairperson, maxine waters. the big showdown could be with congresswoman alexandria ocasio-cortez, aoc as she's known. in its simplest form suggests the government can just print money to pay its bills and achieve full employment. powell was asked about this yesterday. >> the idea that deficits don't matter for countries that can borrow in their own currency i think is just wrong. i think u.s. debt is fairly high at a level of gdp and much more importantly than that, it's growing faster than gdp fairly significantly fast per >> now powell's answer is not quite responsive to mmt. because if the government just prints money, there's technically no deficit created but the effects pretty much the same as powell may have laid out. depreciates the dollar, spikes inflation, and causes inter

senior economic reporters steve liesman with more on what was discussed and what they dined over, steve>> yes it was a much awaited meeting of jerome powell and president trump last night the two sat down for a 90-minute dinner and others were there steak was served, sara and they talked or chatted and discussed about the economy. the fed said in a statement powell stuck close to the words of the last week's press conference and didn't discuss expectations despite the criticism of the fed by the president, a source said there were no pitchforks and had a good exchange of views trump is critical of the fed for calling interest rates this was the first meeting also since the fed shifted policy toward a more neutral stance in january which the president had argued for dinner also attended by fed vice chairman and steve mnuchin the president extended the invitation on friday how unusual is this? not unusual. they're rare and do happen you remember chair yellen met with trump in october 2017 that was a job interview yellen and obama met amid concerns of a slowing economy 2016 yellen and obam

steve liesman.umber and the market impact we're joined by grand thornton and chief economist dine swan and global strategist gabriellea santos the dow is up a nice 167 points. got a further boost by that recent data, it looks like the s&p goes positive. how do you read the market reaction to jobs what does that tell you? >> well, sara, i think in the huge listch events and data that we had this week, i think really et jobs data ranks a little bit further down the list. the market had already reacted quite strongly to the dovish fed dilt as well as to the progress or seeming progress on the trade talks front so i think perhaps it's a little bit of fatigue already for this week in terms of the market reaction really the jobs just confirmed some of the data we had gotten, strength on the consumer side. >> so the very strong jobs report does it didn't at all the dovish fed tilt that the market has been celebrating >> i don't think so, and i think what they really emphasized at the meeting on wednesday i

steve liesman is back at hq with more on today's report and revisions. steve. >> i want to give you some fed speak, despite that strong jobs report two saying the feds should do nothing on rates robert kaplan says in the past hour it is very important that the fed get out of the way here and take no action in terms of the fed funds rate for the time being. he thinks they should be on hold until june st. louis fed president in a specific interview after the number, which was 304,000, double the consensus, the fed should stand back. >> normalize rates in an environment where our main competitors overseas have not been able to normalize rates, kept inflation close to 2% now it is time to wait and see how the economy develops >> let's wait and see the numbers. 304,000, the revisions down 70,000 that still left december north of 200,000 average hourly wage a little disappointing, maybe a payback from stronger december unemployment ticks up, and labor force participation, highest since 2013 despite comments, some think the fed will be forced to double back aga

here's cnbc's steve liesman. >> atms, banks, quick cash, easy access to money.e country an alarmingly large number of americans are living in areas known as bank deserts where banking services are scarce or nonexistent. today one in four americans either has no formal relationship with a bank or lacks access to banking services. as big financial institutions consolidate and branches in smaller communities shutter. >> i told them, i said, we have to pray. >> in the mississippi delta, thera applebury and her four daughters were left bankrupt after fires destroyed two of their homes within only four years. >> i didn't want to lose another home and one of my girls said, mom, it's going to be all right. god got us that this too shall pass. >> reporter: the only bank in applebury's hometown of moorhead shut down in 2015, and because of her prior bankruptcy, applebury was left with nowhere to turn for affordable loans or financial counseling. doing business was virtually impossible. moorhead didn't even have a bank atm. applebury and many others like her found help at

just trade is spooking the markets but also new warnings of slowing global growth out of europe steve liesmanhe details for us. >> thanks, wilf. central banks slashing their growth forecasts dialing back plans and even in some cases easing interest rates. last week the fed moved its policy to the one of patience from gradual tightening. here we go europe today, the uk, the bank of england, cut its growth outlook by half a point. europe, the european union cut the growth outlook china, india cut the rate. australia shifted to neutral one analyst said they had four rate hikes dialed in for this year and not happening anymore in fact, in bunch of these cases forecasters had rate hikes put in and then they took them away because of this move to neutral by a lot of these central banks. what the u.s. federal reserve does depends on the global weakness on american shores. a u.s./china trade deal could alleviate some of the worries but you have to think it's not clear that it will happen fast enough, will be enough in itself to eliminate the gathering global risk, guys. >> steve, i'm a little surpris

steve liesman, great to see you, sir.come back, amazon getting pushback the retail and tech giant's decision to make new york city its hq2 meeting resistance from lawmakers here now amazon may be considering a different city we'll speak to one who is not a fan of this plan and friday, a "squawk" exclusive with berkshire hathaway's charlie munger he never pulls punches we'll have that and much more coming on friday "squawk box" will be right back. so with xfinity mobile i can customize each line for each family member? yup. and since it comes with your internet, you can switch wireless carriers and save hundreds of dollars a year. are you pullin' my leg? nope. you sure you're not pullin' my leg? i think it's your dog. oh it's him. good call. get the data options you need and still save hundreds of dollars... do you guys sell other dogs? ...now that's simple, easy, awesome. customize each line by paying for data by the gig or get unlimited. and now get $200 back when you buy and eligible smartphone. click, call, or visit a

former fed chair janet yellen sits down with steve liesman that's 2:30 p.m. eastern tomorrow >>> metianme, dow up 150 points right now. we're back in a moment this is decision tech. it's screening technology that helps you find a stock based on what's trending or an investing goal. it's real-time insights and information, in your own customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology, for smarter trading decisions. and it's only from fidelity. open an account with no minimums today. >>> welcome back to "squawk alley. an increased focus on privacy and data misuse by big tech firms and concerns over chinese ip theft kept tech in the forefront of the white house trade policy and congress's agenda calls for tech regulation could ramp up the next few years joining us, chairman glen hubbard and investor roger mcnamee. good morning to you, glen. thanks for joining us. clearly we look at the rhetoric from politicians, there is consensus to do something towards the big tech companies when it comes to regulation. do you think it is likely to materialize in

growth is a concern for economists bank of england cuts its outlook following europe's downgrade steve liesmanore on the deteriorating global outlook you have nice tables on how the numbers have come down, steve. >> pretty significantly, carl. not long ago we talked about global central bank tightening now several lowered growth forecasts, blaming trade tensions and other factors, in a few cases outright easing it let's look at the world. the u.s. as you know last week moved its policy from gradual increases of rates to a patient rate bank of england cut its global outlook. one analyst saw that, wiped out the forecast for two rate hikes this year. yesterday, european union cut its growth outlook china has several times cut reserve requirements moving so fast for the cameraman there. we'll see if they do more there. india, i believe it was yesterday, reserve bank cut, and australia, bank of australia, reserve bank of australia shifted its rate to neutral. one analyst had four rate hikes. he said the u.s. economy otherwise solid. he is worried about global economies. >> you look at what the risk

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is this a sign those fears are over steve liesman has been looking at that for us what did you find? >> fickle markets but the data may be more consistent the december downturn forecast is coming, that suggests it didn't start at least in january. hfe writes, what slowdown? j.p. morgan sees some slowing but says things could pick up now that the shutdown has ended. talking specifically about business survey data that's improved lately. j.p. morgan does see gdp slowing to 1.9 and the consensus on the street is for a somewhat weaker quarter. here's the cnbc rapid update 2.5 tracks on the fourth quarter and still above trend. and then 2.2 in the first quarter of this year no tracking data for the machine right now. not the only strong data last friday manufacturing, up to 56 consistent with strong growth and another strong jobs report like january and growth forecast will tick back up, especially if turns around troubling news from the fed in the last little bit. the senior loan office released a significant number of banks tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial and

the pillar he offers ideas on what governments could do to fix these issues he joins me now with steve liesman to have you here. >> thank you for having me >> let me start off, you say these are dangerous times and you point specifically to the rise in populous the same time your book is full of historical anecdotes where the positive affected positive change which way are we going here. are you optimistic or pessimistic things will work out for the better >> democratic movements time and again, the populous you talked about in the 19th century, where useful in setting the course of capitalism right to make sure it worked for all, rather than just a few. i think we've seen that movement again. unfortunately, the problem is, it needs to be channeled in the right direction. in broadening opportunity. sometimes it goes off track. sometimes populism can go toward reducing some of the benefits of capitalism >> let me catch up, we are right there, right now >> we have a far left of the democratic party that wants to -- has a lead for socialism we have a far right of the republican party that wants t

moved to the sideline, had their hike we heard last week in steve liesman's interview, very important interview, suggesting even the runoff of the fed's portfolio might be paused over the summer fed president mester and i were speaking on tuesday and didn't nail it down to the summer but thought that was a reasonable time she also said there was no recession on her forecast for the next three years so we're hearing some positive messages from the fed. the market, of course, is already advanced pretty well on that news but i think this looks to be kind of a smooth sailing at least from the perspective of monetary policy for stocks >> joe, where would you recommend investors position right now? >> i think it's recognizing that there are some pretty meaningful differences today, relative to a lot of the headlines and risks facing back in december and that's why they've rallied as they have. economic data suggests it's expanding and off of our cyclical peaks you have to recognize, we've seen a pretty powerful market rally so far this year and it's quite possible the vast majority of the g

investors look to gain some insight on the fed's sharp turnaround in policy, just earlier last month steve liesmanon ahead of the release with more on what to expect. hey, steve >> hey, morgan yeah, we're waiting for the minutes in the january meeting, where the fed pivoted to a policy of paustience, from gradl rate increases and also revised its policy for running down its bleat, making it more sensitive to changes in economic data. but what we know is the fed debated several key policy questions and investors are looking for some answers here. maybe some of the minute questions, what was behind the pivot? were there politics in there what about global ricfts in trae tensions and how long as a result of that are hikes on hold will the fed reduce the pace of the balance sheet runoff sometime soon and how big will the balance sheet be when it's all done in a reuters interview, john williams said it would take a changed outlook to resume those hikes. he also said he thought the runoff should run into next year, while fed governor lyle brainerd said she wants to it end this year. evercore isi says th