steve liesman is looking at what the numbers are telling us steve? >> yes, and conceptually, too, morgan, the recession is almost certainly over and it ended months ago the problem is, it's not technically over, until the national bureau of economic research, and they have a committee, and they meet and it's not over until they say so and they haven't done it yet jim poterba the nber president told me yesterday, the committee has not typically determined a trough date at the end of recession until after the economy has surpassed ition previous peak in economic. we're not there yet. and the u.s. economy is certainly at that point now but what was measured to hit the previous gdp in any day now and the business cycle committee could meet soon and say the recession ended maybe as much as a year ago, that's where that little trough is right there when the economy bottomed out. the fed governor chris waller gave a two-part answer to that question >> it depends on whether you're measuring things in levels or growth rates so again, if you're measuring, you

mona, i'll get you in in a few seconds but let's go to steve liesman for the fed decision. >> interest rates unchanged after the april meeting and not changing, continuing with $120 billion of asset purchases under the quantitative easing program and noting progress on vaccinations and saying there had been help from strong support, strong policy support an upgrade tlohroughout to the economy. the fed said employment strengthened which is an upgrade from the prior payment and the pandemic affected sectors remain weak but those sector shown impr improvement and the fed says largely due to transitory factors. some playing a drinking game there's the first transitory to the day from the federal reserve. the fed will continue to aim for inflation above 2% and it's committed to using the full range of tools. we have a federal reserve that is upgrading the outlook for the economy. noting the higher inflation rates that are out there but once again not changing policy in the face of that or even the policy outlook for the moment. >> is there anything in here textually or sub tex julily that w

steve liesman actually alluded to this as well.ou know, the earnings are likely to surprise for all of the macro economic effects that we are talking about so as these companies in the next few weeks come through their earnings, i would expect a little altitude for boeing i would expect sysco, which has been breaking out, and we have talked about that, if it gets one good quarterly report here i think it is going to shoot higher if it doesn't get a quarterly report, then it is still in the penalty box but it is more likely for all of these earnings are what propel them out of consolidation. >> josh, you agree with the whole thesis, i guess, that jim has put forward, that those, more the industrial-type stocks are the ones that you should take a look at here if you are thinking about boom rather than some of the, you know, consumer names? >> well, back to my original comment on the nature of the environment we're in, there are days where you are going to feel like a genius if you are overweight industrials, but then the next day you

let's go over to steve liesman he has more on the fed decision coming up a little bit later today. rter: hey, fill, thanks no change in assets whampt should investors watch the beginning of the pandemic. jay powell has pointed to the course of the virus. growth or government spending. the point in particular the inflation charge >> it's coming down and surging in the fall and winter and that surge is something to take note of wait to see what happens in the fall before announcing a taper. now to mike santoli. >> not too unusual >> that's what's going on. it looked over heated and we haven't had a pull back. go sideways for a while and the market can reset that might be what's happening the cyclical indicators are good the 10-year treasury this is a 6-month look what this was, obviously a huge selloff in bonds, surging yields into the end of the first quarter. the worst quarter for bonds in many, many years it was very lopsided positioning. you had global flows come back in and take advantage of those rates. this is a very textbook action in the yield we start to pull back to where i

steve liesman is looking boo the details here. >> head spin a little bit. two detailed studies with divergent estimates over how the plan would impact u.s. growth. moody's with a gdp of 2030 raising the level by 3.3%. penn wharton sees an almost 1% decline. moody's sees meaningful increase in growth, jobs and higher wages and higher productivity. penn wharton forecast fewer hours worked there's the effect of higher corporate taxes and the impact of government investment return on government investment at moody's seen as hitting an economy with lots of slack in it, each dollar adding to gdp. penn wharton don't see much of what we see a multiplier to government spending and crowding out, big effects of the government borrowing and reducing private investment. another economic and big political question, what's infrastructure penn wharton says a fifth of the plan is transfer payments not investment and model doesn't have return on the investment leading to a bigger question, how do you value social goods like helping the elderly or avoiding shutdowns of the gr

what were they thinking at the last meeting steve liesman is digging through that. >>> georgia is on everyone's mind it seems. businesses are caught in the middle over that new voting law. >>> and two heavy hitters teaming up rick caruso with the winkle boss twins. caruso will accept rent payments and more in bitcoin. he'll join us with tyler winklevoss frank? >> thank you. >>> we await details from the fed minutes. you might think today'squiet based on the numbers but there's always action somewhere and today it is in the big mega cap tech names you probably already own, talking google, facebook and microsoft all hitting all-time highs today let's bring in bob pisani with what's working today and what isn't? >> frank, things are flattish. that's good news things have been going great the vaccine rollout is really strong so it's certainly good news to move sideways at record highs. everything is rotating through really nicely. you mentioned the tech stocks with leadership overall and not concerned that we're flattish this week. people love trading the thematic tech etfs and clean ene

but how fast steve liesman has the data. >> reporter: hey, tyler, good afternoon. hopes are high heading into the friday jobs report for the strongest gains in month the street looking for 65,000 jobs but some forecasters believe t's a million jobs march. td securities saying i wouldn't be surprised if it was above a million. o'sullivan and others pointing to data with market improvement in the entertainment and hospitality industries, the hardest hit. seem to be coming back we need several months of seven-figure gains to get back to what was lost in the pandemic there are 9.5 million fewerjob and there's overlap but 13.3 million means we need a strong market for months to get back what was lost. janet yellen believes that it could happen, full employment by next year. you have to start somewhere. and the forecast for tomorrow is that we get the first half million or maybe million tomorrow, tyler. i could be in the office or i could be at home studio. you will never know. >> steve, i think i speak for all of us when i say we miss you in the studio. labor experts ye

steve liesman is going to be here wednesday, april 28th, 2021.

that's our steve liesman this morning. growing number of corporate executives taking a stand against various voting rights bits of legislation around the country after a number of prominent black business executives, penned a letter with an urgent call to action this week. >> crystal clear and unequivocal, this legislation is unacceptable it is a step backwards, and it does not promote principles we have stood for in georgia. >> this is a call for action we're asking corporate america to publicly and directly oppose any discriminatory legislation and all measures designed to limit america's ability to vote. >> democracy depends on every voter in this country having free and fair access to vote without discrimination and without undue hindrance. >> they don't live here. they don't even know what the laws are in georgia, and quite honestly, our laws are not as restrictive as their own states where they're residing, so perhaps they should focus in other places. >> joining us this morning, the man who drafted the letter and pl

expected thanks in part to the new round of relief checks cnbc's senior economics correspondent steve liesmanrkable. do economists see this as a sort of lift cooff. >> it sure feels like there's some air underneath these wings here we had the blow out jobs report last month, nearly a million jobs the data you cited today, crazy retail numbers it certainly starts to feel like we're leaving the gravitational pull of the pandemic behind. we have other data we can show you from our all america economic survey. you can see the outlook of americans, this is a poll nationwide, 44% think the economy will get better in the next year, and that's a bit better than we were doing in december of 2020, and those that thing it's going to stay the same or get worse, that's about the same we still have work to do that. >> steve, are the people who were first to be laid off, like restaurant and hotel workers, are they being rehired >> there's some initial indication that's happening. if you look, for example, at the leisure and hospitality industry, which is pretty interesting tharks lost an awful number of job

of business, shep, that still haven't opened and won't be hiring until the businesses open >> steve liesman smith on cnbc. it's the bottom of the hour, time for the top of the news >>> overhauling children's education, the push for personal finance classes that some say will pay off >>> people still missing after a boat capsized in louisiana family members holding out hope that air pockets are keeping their loved ones alive. >>> and the u.s. is imposing sanctions against russia. >> the white house taking action against moscow for interfering in the 2020 election and the solar winds hack into government agencies and american businesses, what's notable here is what the sanctions are not for. last june, "the new york times" reported u.s. intel found that russia secretly offered afghan militants bounties for killing u.s. troops. remember that? this story became a political lightning rod during an election year. >> i'm deeply concerned that this white house has failed to act knowing that russia paid a bounty for the killing of american troops in afghanistan and the fact that president trump refu

dowling from the chicago forum austin gul is the sby and steve liesman and rick santoli.h you. >> you know, i think maybe a huge number like 725,000 since we've gone into this phase it's a little harder to predict but even 725,000 is not enough i mean, we could go ten months at that rate and we still not be back where we were before this started. >> doug, what do you think >> i'm putting it at about 800,000 and seeing the unemployment rate drop to about six. austin is right we need 950,000 a month the next months to get back to 2020 it's a good number but not great. >> sarah how about you both of those numbers well above screens us. >> at 700,000 but a boom to come by the summer over a million this is driven by mobility, return to hospitality and leisure sectors. we are seeing that already with strong data points, consumer confidence at the highest level we have seen in a year staffing index numbers up high single digits to double digits a very positive there. on average hourly earnings we see that flat because the mix of services sector jobs will actually bring that down

steve liesman is here. stions. many debated for hundreds of years are now in play when it comes to gauging the economic impact of the biden infrastructure plan. how would the plan impact growth take a look here moody's sees by 2030 the level of gdp 3.3% higher pen wharton says it will be down 0.9% millions more jobs and higher wages as well as higher productivity the penn wharton model show a decline in growth and fewer models the effect of higher corporate taxes and the impact of government investment on the economy. there's the issue of the return on government investment he sees the government spending hitting an economy with lots of slack in it. each adds a lot more to gdp. penn wharton thinks we'll be closer to capacity there's a big issue of crowding out. pen charlton sees borrowing and higher corporate taxes what is infrastructure that's another question. penn charlton counts 1/5 of the bill as social transfer. they don't give it any return at all. that leads to even bigger questions about how do you

how will all of it put together affect the reopening of the confidence steve liesman has been looking into that angle of the story hi, steve. >> hey, courtney, just for that reason wall street has been doing their own estimates of vaccinations all along, and several we contacted today say they expect the johnson & johnson to have little bearing on their forecast for matt vaccinations by the end of may, and a full reopening of the company by early summer. you can see it's been growing just in the last leg there, about 12% in the past weeks of all vaccinations, but economist dan striden tells me that the at most, if theemoval of the j&j was -- which he doesn't expect -- in the goldman model, he says supply of mrna vaccis continue to ramp up. morgan stanley's matthew harrison tells me it doesn't impact the overall time line both of these guys tell me we'll have enough months before the government approves administration to them here in the u.s., the concern is it could fuel further skepticism of vaccines in general, which is running high compared to order countries at 25% to 30% of the p

steve liesman joins us it is great when they call on you, steve you know that?t >> i hope i fulfill all of your hopes and aspirations, andrew, with my question powell said it is not time to taper. we will talk about it. jay powell and the press conference upgraded the u.s. economy and downgraded the risk from the pandemic. no change coming any time soon to the easing monetary policy. powell said this >> it is not time yet. we have said we would let the public know when it is time to have that conversation we would do that in advance of the decision to taper asset purchases. we will do so. in the meantime, we are monitoring progress toward our goals. >> still fed observers on the street are talking about tapering and look to be centered on the timeline for the fed to act. the loose timeline from the fed survey and comments after the meeting. june or july, the fed will tell us it is discussing tapering, perhaps. september or october, fed would announce it will taper in january, a lot of consensus, the fed would begin to reduce the $120 billion in asset purchase pu

. >>> getting comments from janet yellen, which steve liesman told us to look out for earlier hey, steve good morning, carl. first major speech treasury secretary janet yellen calling for a global minimum corporate tax. saying the world needs to reverse what she call as 30-year race to the bottom when it comes to corporate taxes she plans to work with g-20 nations beginning this week with the imf meeting to establish a form of corporate taxes. unclear what the rate will be but the biden administration you know proposed raising it's u.s. corporate tax to 28% from 21%. in her speech she'll say competitiveness is more than how u.s. companies fare against other companies in global merger and acquisition base it's about making sure that governments have stable tax systems that raise sufficient revenue to invest in essential public goods and respond to crises treasury official who asked not to be named said a global m minimum can be enforced through u.s. legislation prohibits inversions and companies from declaring tax havens as their addresses. u.s. can deny company deductions from tax havens

. >>> let's get to steve liesman for the details from the beige book steve? >> let me fill in rick's excellent report there this is a beige book more bullish than the headline but a smell of inflation to it consumer spending strengthened with a pickup in leisure and hospitality, travel and came from easing of pandemic restrictions including greater vaccinations, as well as some other issues happening right there. auto sales grew. inventories restrauined by the chip shortage. manufacturing expanded despite the disruptions. employment growth picked up. construction and leisure and hospitality, one of the hardest hit from the pandemic. hiringing a widespread challenge especially for low wage workers. wage growth accelerated slightly overall a comment that employment expectations were bullish. prices something to follow close by the fed. input costs rose across the board and one more i read before coming on and that's that prices overall widespread reports of price increases though not the pace of selling prices not at the pace of input costs i will tell you a ve

stimulus and the bounce back from shutdowns how much is real and temporary or fleeting let's bring in steve liesman for that story. >> welcome back. economic forecasters believe the economy boomed in the first quarter and then winding down beginning at this end of the year and the beginning of next the cnbc rapid update with theest ma its on the street sees growth near 7%, above 10% in the current quarter and then growth of 7% and 5% in the second half of the year. gregory daco writes the consumer boom is only beginning a strong start to the year means that consumer spending growth could approach 10% while gdp sur passes 8% but john ryding say there is's a valid issue as to whether the economy can meet these demangd-side estimates is it a sugar high to some extent but a lot of sugar out there. look at the annual rates that we have here. the bombdy nation of the pandemic recovery and seemed turned around from 2020 and powering 7% growth this year, better than 2% last. 4% in '22 and then trend like growth for investors the growth rate increases the pie, the source of earnings main hitch here for the

steve liesman joins us with the latest from the ults of the cnbc all-america economic survey. take it away, steve. >> tyler, thanks an astonishing seven out of ten americans say they have received some form of assistance from the government over the past year during this pandemic a number that looks to have shown up in today's very strong retail sales report and could keep showing up in months ahead. in the survey, 802 americans polled around the country, 69% say they received government assistance compared with 31% who said they did not. more on the lower income spectrum there the largest source of those funds, the direct deposit from uncle sam. 9% getting unemployment benefits a smaller share reported receiving nutrition or rental assistance or small business loans. that assistance could be part of the reason the economic outlook brightened from the last quarter. 44% of the public say they think the economy will get better in the next year, up from 38% in our december survey. clearly, government agents played a critical role of keeping the economy awill not and prost pouring

. >> steve liesman's plays to his role, it's a lot of bernanke >> and his wife's book >> and his wife'sk >> what about the artwork, guys? bob pisani, remember all the artwork, the bands, the vintage posters from back in the day >> can i throw in a vote for team suburbs here? i know what the taxes are like but there's trash collection there's sewer, there's water you better be pretty handy if -- i've thought about it, dom, i don't think i'm up for it. >> i'm a suburbs guy, i'm fine with infrastructure, i'll stay right there. >> thanks, everybody suburbs, rural, whatever >> "closing bell" starts right now. >>> welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen with will frost the dow is inching into the green, the s&p 500 is flat any close positive for the nasdaq or s&p 500 would be a new record close let's look at what's driving the action now one hour left of trading a number of names seeing big moves on a packed day of earnings season. ups is surging on blowout numbers. 3m, eli lilly, t

steve liesman is here in the middle of it all for us. steve thank you for setting this up greg, let me go to you first if you just set up why you think this plan could boost jobs, boost the economy. lay that out for us first. >> i think what we are looking at, the biden stimulus actions so far they have been mostly cyclical right now we are looking at a plan that is aiming at the structural side of the u.s. economy. really lifting long term growth and long term potential. we don't think it is going to create the most jobs ever since worlds war two but there could be a potential 1 million jobs over the next year and a half that's created by this plan and maybe two million jobs over the next three years a net benefit. but perhaps importantly a boost to the economy's potential that's what we are looking for at this stage of the recovery. >> boosting the economy's potential is more than boosting gdp. it means we can do more gp on top of more gdp in the future. it start of multiplies but you are more skeptical on what the jobs plan would do wh

steve liesman looks at the question. >> reporter: the inflation of 1970s left a deep and lasting scar those who lived through it remember the lines meat prices rose 25% in 1 year alone. so could it happen again general view is that a combination of government spending in the '60s for the vietnam war and social programs with the arab oil boycotts and a monitory policy that was too easy led to an inflationary outbreak what do we have? generous government spending check. easy monetary policy check. pumping billions every month into the banking system but shouft shutdowned from the pandemic manufacturers report supply disruptions and pushing up cost and some consumer prices and demand is coming every indication is that consumers are about to open up the wall lets as the economy reopens. so should we brace for a return of the great inflation not so fast. since peaking in 1980 at 13% inflation is relatively under control. last ten years averaged 1.7% and kept down by first technology. that slashed the cost of everything from televisions to cars and computers next, globalization. that's crea

welcome back, let's get to our steve liesman with results from the american survey, looking for the outlookic outlook took a turn upward, not so much wages or the stock market, and there are growing inflationary concerns that we picked up in our survey of 800 americans 44% of those surveyed in the cnbc all america economic survey say they expect the economy to improve in the next year that's up from 34% in december a big factor, 48% see the value of their homes increasing as the hot housing market lifts expectations that's one of the highest numbers we have seen, but just 27% think their wages will rise, a sign the job market remains troubled, america's view on the current economic situation are unchanged from december. 34% say the economy is excellent or good, but that is well above the levels from the first term of president obama the measure was in the single digits for the first two years, but it's well below the prepandemic levels of the trump administration and the stock market, the public outlook on stocks has cooled a bit, 37% saying it's a good time to invest, down three points fro

everyone stay right here we want to get to cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman who asked questions at the news conference your takeaway? >> i think the key thing is the fed upgraded the economy but left the highly accommodative monetary policy in place not giving any indication sara that it isb about to change that policy any time soon the fed mentioned progress with vaccinations for the first time, said employment strengthened even that pandemic-affected sectors are remaining weak but they have shown improvement. all that said, powell was steadfast is fed is not close to a discussion of tapering >> it is not time yet. we have said that we would let the public know when it is time to have that conversation. we said we will do that well in advance of any decision to taper our asset purchases. in the meantime we will be monitoring progress forward our goals. we ar particular kated our tests. economic activity and hiring recently picked up after slowing over the winter. it will take some time before we see substantial further progress. >> i asked him about whether the virus -- if he c

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in the meantime, the fed chair on 60 minutes last night in a wide ranging interview steve liesman has. >> good morning, carl, fed chair jay powell sticking to his talking points for the big national audience on 60 minutes last night, saying he sees a strong economic recovery gathering steam but the fed will keep interest rates near 0 at least for this year if not longer >> all the way through the end of this year, you wouldn't see rates increasing >> i think it's highly unlikely we would raise rates anything like this year, no. >> powell reiterated his contention that any coming bout of inflation will be temporary and unlikely to alter the underlying inflation psychology that is generally expected fed chair making his first competents on the blow up of the arkan archegos >> it was a risk management break down, and one that we're looking very carefully at to try to make sure it doesn't happen again. >> finally, powell said the fed is developing software and even designing a digital currency but said a decision to issue a u.s. dollar has not been made and remains a long way off back to

mona, i'll get you in in a few seconds but let's go to steve liesman for the fed decision. >> interest meeting and not changing, continuing with $120 billion of asset purchases under the quantitative easing program and noting progress on vaccinations and saying there had been help from strong support, strong policy support an upgrade tlohroughout to the economy. the fed said employment strengthened which is an upgrade from the prior payment and the pandemic affected sectors remain

what were they thinking at the last meeting steve liesman is digging through that. >>> georgia is on over that new voting law. >>> and two heavy hitters teaming up rick caruso with the winkle boss twins. caruso will accept rent payments and more in bitcoin. he'll join

the direction of interest rates, and what a day it is really when you have the conversation that steve liesman had today with fed governor waller i want you to listen to what he said about the economy, and we'll point out what rates are doing in response and then broaden out the conversation here is that conversation today, which was so interesting >>> i think the economy is ready to rip we're looking at growth forecast of nearly 8% for q2. my forecast is about 6.5% for the year i see unemployment falling to the low 5s by the end of the year and inflation running about 2.5% for the year. so i think the economy is really ready to go. >> shannon, i mean this was about as plain spoken as you ever hear someone related to the fed speak. the economy is going to rip. i could see many other days where a fed official, especially of a governor rank, said something of that sort and you would see maybe a meaningful move higher in interest rates. you're not getting that today. you are at, what, 158, 158.2, something like that? so if rates really do remain contained, there's no reason to believe that this t

steve liesman joins us now with more steve, good morning. >> good morning, joe call this story how therying and loved the idea of temporary inflation. over the past several weeks it looks like the markets have embraced the fed as a coming burst of inflation the burst will be temporary. that will be tested again today with the release of wholesale prices at 8:30 and again next tuesday with consumer prices fed chair jay powell in discussion yesterday with cnbc's own sara eisen repeated his it's only temporary mantra. >> we have a situation where the economy's reopening. there's -- there will be a surge in demand, perhaps, that will be bottlenecks perhaps. it seems unlikely that that will change the underlying inflation psychology that has taken deep roots over the course of many, many years so that's what we think. we think that there will be upward pressure on prices which may be passed along to consumers in the form of price increases we think that that affect will be temporary before that idea, it cooled off since the end of march you can see that little decline there reversing a stea

who better to answer the question than steve liesman who joins us with that steve, good morning. >> goodrtainly over it ended months and months ago the problem is that it's not technically over until the folks at the national bureau of economic research meet and say so they haven't done that yet the president of nber told me yesterday that the committee has not tip beingly icily determineg date well, when is the economic activity the u.s. economy is almost at that point it may hit the gdp peek any day now. so the business cycle data committee could meet soon and say the recession actually ended a year ago i guess that's the wrong full screen that's up there when the economy bottomed out. if you have that gdp chart, i can show it you to we'll move on. the more important question is this, it's whether the economy is fully recovered what you just saw after yesterday's data, he told me momentum isdefinitely building we already saw 900,000 jobs gained in march. everything suggests march is a blowout month. and april at least in job growth is probably stronger but if you look at the job market

thank you for coming on here steve liesman, our senior economic reporter. up next, boeing taking a wider hit than expected. what should you do with the stock? we will let you know we will talk starbucks and veeps au as well, and ahead of the nfl draft kickoff. rich eisen joins us. run, rich, run doing a lot of great things in the community and for st. jude children's research hospital we'll talk about that when we come back. a plan that can help grow and protect your money. now or in the future. with an annuity in your plan to help cover essential expenses, you can live the retirement you want. the right financial professional can show you how. this is what an annuity can do. ♪ ♪ front desk. yes, hello... i'm so... please hold. ♪♪ i got you. ♪ all by yourself. ♪ go with us and get millions of flexible booking options. expedia. it matters who you travel with. ♪ >> >>> welcome back i'm rahel solomon. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. >>> a prosecutor in north carolina says that andrew brown jr. drove his car into law enforcement officers before they

steve liesman. >> thank you. mr.n, i want to follow up on janelle's question, i wonder if you help us understand better your thinking about how covid infection rates and the virus calibrate with monetary policy. as you recall we had a major resurgence in the virus last fall. would you need to be assured there wasn't a resurgence for lack of a better term, thinking about, thinking about tapering? what kind of comfort level would you need? is there something declared from the cdc or the world health organization, for example, downgrading the virus from a pandemic before you have the comfort level to reverse course on policy? thank you. >> we really have just articulated the goals that i mentioned couple times substantial further progress of our goals before we taper. that is very likely, for us to achieve that is likely to be the case before we make significant progress on controlling the virus through vaccination and other -- those two things should more or less coexist. we have not articulate ad separate test for the

steve liesman, our senior economics reporter lesley picker is following the action ahead of the first trade of coinbase. it will be a huge valuation because we have -- the last indication we had was around 365 or so. >> reporter: yeah, and i'm told by sources close to the process they're expecting it to open in about 20 minutes or so, give or take, maybe 15 or 20 minutes from now you can see there the indicative price, $374.50 that is just shy of the high where that stock traded in first quarter, which was $375 according to the prospectous that implies a valuation of about $100 billion for this company. if you take the market valuation for i.c.e., the owner of the new york stock exchange, and combine it with the nasdaq, you still don't really get a $100 billion valuation. so, you know, i have been chatting with some investors about this, you know, how do you feel about where this thing is looking like it is going to open up, are you comfortable at these levels, are you buying into these levels, so far the folks i have spoken with are concerned about one main thing and that is how exac

steve liesman joins us with a look at whether -- hard for me to get this out. ve? >> yes, joe, the $2.25 trillion biden spending plan would introduce a profound change to the economy. a four decade long decline in government investment that began in the reagan years, here's the graph. government investment in the company, fallen from above 1% in the 1980s to .7. president biden highlighted this decline in his speech yesterday. >> we've fallen back the rest of the world is closing in, and closing in fast. we can't allow this to continue. american jobs plan is the biggest increase in our federal nondefense research and development spending on record. >> daniel jurgen whose book chronicles how we swing back and forth from private sector and government the frontier between government and the private sector is never fixed and it's always shifting biden certainly is pushing on top of the stimulus bill and a recovering economy would crowd out private investment john ryding says we are going to have crowding out, that's what happens with an economy that gets to full cap

you here, i want to get your thoughts on other big headlines this morning, including one that steve liesmanorporations do you think that's going to happen >> well, we'll see what she says later today. but i would just note to some of these corporate ceos who run to capitol hill and lobby republicans privately to protect them from joe biden's tax policy if you want joe biden's election laws you might wind up with joe biden's tax laws as well >> senator cotton, i'm sorry, just a second here after what you said, i went up and looked up the georgia law. it says nothing about providing only political -- it says no person shall provide food and water to a person standing in line so, i just want to make sure that my understanding is correct here, that it's not banning political groups it's no person at all. >> yes, steve, no person can approach a voter in line within a certain proximity of the polling place. it's very common in places around the country but poll workers, officials at the polling site it provide water, whether a water fountain or, say, a gatorade jug. no one is going to be standing

steve liesman, thank you, sir. go under the hood of auto stocks and find out what is driving shares in the sector higher look at us, joe. remember we drove those cars around and shares of moderna moving higher as well the company's covid-19 vaccine being rolled out today in the uk that approval comes about two weeks earlier than had been expected we'll talk to dr. scott gottlieb about that and so much more right ren quk x.he o"sawbo hey xfinity, show me disney plus... i'm here on business. i need your help. i've been quested to bring this one back to its kind. now you can access exclusive disney originals... we are an unusual couple. oh i don't think that was ever in question. ...and stream must-see disney new releases! people need this symbol. where do we start? find the best in entertainment all in one place, with disney plus now on xfinity! a way better way to watch. >>> welcome back to "squawk box. one of the hottest sectors to start the year is automakers check out the names doing so very well. ford and genera

steve liesman's got it steve?arida providing a one-two punch of dovishness from the fed. saying appropriate monetary policy will remain accommodative for some time after the conditions to raise rates or normalize poll so has already begun. that's a future promise of even more dovishness than i think we have seen in the past. he says it will not tighten because the up employment rate has tightened after its long run natural rate it is a bit of an academic speech but has understandable notions for investors. he defines maximum employment as the highest level of employment that does not generate sustained pressures that put the price stability mandate at risk. again, this follows comments from the chair who said raising rates is unlikely before 2022. that raising rates is not going to happen until a recovery has been achieved. >> steve, thanks so much for that very interesting extra insight similar theme overall of course of late. oil still up nicely. dollar down .2%. >>> we now have 13 minutes to go in the trading d

especially given there's a new sec in place let's get over to steve liesman and christopher waller steve have chris waller, the new fed governor joining us for his first television interview thank you for joining us >> hey, steve. thanks for having me on. >> yeah. and maybe if people hear the familiarity of your voice, people should know i've known you as the research director of the st. louis fed before you a big deal at the fed for a number of years governor waller, let's start i think having this opportunity to hear you views for the first time, let's start at the beginning. what's your view of where we are in this recovery from the pandemic and where the u.s. economy is going >> well, sti -- steve, i think e economy is ready to rip. we're looking at dwroet forecast for nearly 8% for 2-2. my forecast is about 6.5% for the year i see unemployment falling to the low fives by the end of the year and inflation running about 2.5% for the year so i think the economy is really ready to go. the vaccine program has done amazingly well there's still more to do on that but i think everybody is g

steve liesman.u see right there almost 4 seema got off a call with larry culp and has highlights for us >> we started with a supply chain on pricing pressures larry culp says he's seeing it from electronics, resin, steel and metal prices he says we'll look to offset pressures with price and surcharges where we can. ge identifiuation, he cited the uneven economic recovery having a knock on effect. european departures he says today down 75% from precovid levels he mentioned india in the midst of a humanitarian crisis where ge has 25,000 employees. second largest global footprint next to the u.s. he can't point to any material financial impact watching the market closely. he reiterated ge e continues to look at strategic options. he says it's tough in the past for people to look at it as a forced to stress seller. book of business was not understood he says we're improving management we've enhanced disclosures and we're deleveraging ge as a whole. i asked about his pay package. i think it was around $7

steve liesman caught up earlier with the federal reserve governor christopher waller. f, good afternoon. in his first press interview as a new fed governor, chris waller who took a seat at the table in january said the economy is ready to rip, and he's not going to do a thing about it >> i think the economy is ready to rip we're looking at growth forecasts of nearly 8% for q2. my forecast is about 6.5% for the year i see unemployment falling to the low 5s by the end of the year and inflation running about 2.5% for the year. so i think the economy is really ready to go. >> you think a ripping economy would prompt a fed official to talk of easing back what is the easiest fed policy in history, but waller rejected that he said while growth rates may be high, the level of growth remains below where it should be quote, we've got a lot way to go, he said. there's no reason you pull the plug on our support until we're really through this. wilf, you know how he said 8%. i'm working on a rapid update for monday we have about 11 of the forecasts in our number is higher than that

yellen, the first major address today, in which she is expected, according to axios and our own steve liesman to call for a minimum corporate tax. how would that work? and how would it be resistant to attempts to undercut it given countries that want to draw in business >> i know the person who was in favor of one world a long time ago, i don't know how this is done but the republicans, holy cow are they against this thing, all republicans have been on tv and say the same thing, we're fine with bridges and tunnel, we're not fine really with anything else, i mean i don't know, david, i mean that bill has a lot that is not bridges andtunnels. >> it's got a lot that is not bridges and tunnels. it's going to need more or less complete democratic support. and there is some pushback from some democrats in terms of when it comes to taxes, not reinstating the deduction for state and local income taxes above the $10,000 cap that currently exists so it could be very tough, a tough road, even under re reconciliation, jim. that said, you want to figure out a way it potentially pay for it so it's not clea

. >> and steve liesman reporting yesterday, and we have been following it closely at cnbc, the port issues so much stuff, they just can't get to particular the chip shortage. >> the chip shortage is so bad i mean again. >> and spreading you know, jim, it does raise that question. i don't know, do they know wha they're doing over there at the fed? >> let's give them a chance. you have to give the fed a chance because if you look at super storm yuri and the initial impact on dow and hen it came back down and it's okay, a lot of people put through price increases. union pacific, which the trust owns, at this point, that is port-related their numbers weren't that good. so not everybody is reeling in the dollars. >> no. let's get to some other movers this morning at&t shares, john stankey was a guest on "squawk box" this morning. a good view. >> sure was. >> he actually answers questions. always refreshing. i like when he was asked about the dividend, and he said you know what, if we get the stock price up >> i thought that was a jeopardy answer you should have put it in the form of a question

steve liesman joins us steve, they're like, no, we can't release this we don't want -- what are we goingave you ever seen that before do you know what finally happened >> with what, joe? >> so, you remember we waited and waited and waited, steve do you remember we were waiting for that report, and rick said in 42 years he had never seen it take that long we finally got it from other sources. >> oh, you mean the ppi report i'm sorry that was like a distant memory, yes. >> and then interviewed you with the hot ppi report and had -- i'm sorry, joe i'm sorry, joe, there's a lot of -- i have never seen anything like that. in a long time and i still haven't gotten to the bottom made a couple call to the bls on that, joe, and haven't heard yet. let me talk about what were you talk about before which inflation of the '70s. president ronald reagan made famous the misery index which added together the inflation and unemployment rates in 1980, after a decade of legislation in the '70s, topped out at a towering 22% and that number has echoed through the decades. >>> the inflation of the 1970s left a

retail sales and higher cpi numbers and the best jobs claims since early days of the pandemic steve liesmantracking economic forecasts on the street steve. >> yeah, andrew, hot off the presses. we just finished the last calculations this morning. and forecasters believe the economy boomed in the first quarter will boom more in the second quarter, and will stay strong into the third. only gradually winding down beginning next year. here's the cnbc rapid update quarterly estimates at 13 economics cnbc, an average on the street, a growth near 7% at least in the completed first quarter. above 10% in the current and growth of 7% and 5% in the second half of the year, not too shabby greg daco from oxford economics writes the consumer boom is only beginning. a strong start to the year means that consumer spending growth could approach 10% while rising 8% but john ryding worries there is a valid issue as to whether the economy can meet it. on annual basis, economists don't see a return to trend growth, until 2023 the economic contraction in 2020, you can see down in q4, gives way to a sharp rebound

. >> let's get to steve liesman with his take on the number. steve?ts here. not exactly what i expected, melissa. food prices are up 3.5% year over year. the month-on-month moderated to 0.1% food away from home, which i thought restaurant prices, 3.3 year over year but just 0.1 on the month. energy prices did accelerate a lot. energy commodities up. gasoline prices up that happened. we knew that was going to happen expected to see that that's the thing the market needs to make up its mind. whether or not it indeed wants to discount it when i look at what's happening in new vehicles, that's a troublesome area phil lebeau comes on, talks about pricing power out there. also you have this rise in used car and truck prices and that might reflect what's happening in terms of there being a shortage on the chip side for the new cars people buying more used cars and those prices rising. 9.4% year over year. looking at services. yeah, some service inflation is out there and that's what we're going to be tracking here in terms of the reopening as to whether or n

steve liesman joins us now with a closer look. hey, steve >> reporter: good morning, becky.biden is gaining approval for $4 trillion in additional spending. he would usher in a boost of share of gdp not seen in the u.s. in decades. federal outlay spiked during the recession and they come back down you can see the unprecedented relief in the covid crisis it pushed almost off the charts there. that will runoff the plan would boost the share about 2% for eight-to-ten years. that is a running boost higher the economic advisers told me yesterday we think we're getting back to the 1960s where government investment has a share to support economically game changing innovations. the former head and ceo doug eakins says this will not lead to increased growth. he tells me and i quote, at some point to keep them going, you need more money. they are layered on top of existing shortfalls with social security and medicare. the spending would be historic for the united states, but not unpress den unprecedented economies. france is the highest with 55% of the economy coming from government s

thank you for that little bit of extra analysis from steve liesman who joins us with his take on those by these numbers. i'll tell you why. i like my world to be orderly. i like when something is happening over here, it should be reflected in the data over there. the most exciting thing is seeing the jobless claims tick down as rick so correctly said breaking through not just the 7, not the 6, breaking through the 600,000 mark range here at 576,000. seeing a huge drop in the total number of people receiving claims out there i was becoming concerned that this idea out there that maybe keeping benefits up was -- keeping people from going back to the work force, there may be an element of that, but the idea that we make this big shift tells me that the prior two weeks was a bit of an anomaly. on the retail shift end of the jobs market is improving as evidenced by what we saw in the monthly jobs data. on the retail sales number, it's funny that the 9.8% month to month is lighter than some of the whisper numbers and some of the high frequency data suggesting maybe weeds a be in double digit

steve liesman, though, joins us with some more analysis on all of this. perform on the top line level in part because it's picking up a bunch of boeing order cancellations. and sometimes, i think that the best person to analyze the durable goods number is phil lebeau, because so much of this in transportation. that explains the top line doesn't explain the bottom line. rick could be right, maybe some of the residual weakness in february is coming up. you want to see this number high you want to see businesses getting back into the investment game they've been doing a bit of it we've seen a lot of confidence at the ceo level and i want to share with you a really interesting report from goldman sachs that came out in the early morning hours about them expecting a productivity boom because of the changes made to the economy from the pandemic they've offered three reasons. first, a shift to e-commerce they say that's more efficient, more productive for the economy. digitization of the workplace. a percentage of that is going to remain that it's more productive