steve liesman. >> i'll try. thank you. >> going to feel like a long way though, steve, from now until september if the way the market gets whenever we get an inflation print. >> summer inflation and it's a hot summer >> liesman, thanks >> sorry, i thought he was gone. i think we're in the goldilocks as i mentioned before. it was shocking to me that we did not tech above the 1.74% in the 10 year walk while it felt like rome was burning in the equity market. i think we are in that sweet spot i think we're going to be okay i think the market will bounce the s&p bounced right off the 50 day right where it should. i think there's a lot of panic said it before, baby out with the bath water i think everyone is selling everything and then checking what they own at the end of the day. stick with your reflation trades stick with the economy reopening. this was a manmade event that we had. we shut down our own economy people will get back to work i think this is a lot of panic. >> we've got breaking news here on the colonia

let's bring in steve liesman, our senior economics reporter. that will be a big takeaway and i guess what is the big battle going forward, steve, about the benefits unemployed workers are getting and their desire to come back into the workforce. >> yes, scott, that's exactly right. a lot of economists right now scratching their head, trying to figure out if it is really the case let me give you two sides of the argument here. the first is we have the workweek being a little longer, that also suggests finding workers for what it is worth part time moving into full time, that suggests trouble finding workers. at the same time, scott, if you look at the influx into the workforce in the past two months, we have about three-quarters of a million people come back into the workforce, still short of the three-plus million who remain out of the workforce, but it suggests that maybe the benefits are not having that big an effect the other thing that's a bit of a huge head scratcher, scott, on this is how do you explain the other data that shows, first of

. >> president biden's response to that in a moment, from cnbc's eamon javers, first to steve liesmanon the jobs report itself. steve, what happened >> a huge disappointment here. probably more a bump on a way to a more robust recovery than a derailment of the jobs recovery. we added 770,000 jobs last month. under very similar conditions with the same benefits in place. this looked like a big disappointment in a lot of sectors, and some of the data was very strange it didn't really go along with other data about strong economic activity we've had if you look at the data by seconder, manufacturing was down 18,000, but manufacturing is booming in this country. construction, housing is booming but no jobs added there. retail stores are reopening but losing jobs. leisure and hospitality added all of the jobs. 331,000 jobs some schools are still closed making it hard for women to work, workers concerned about health and you have higher unemployment benefits perhaps keeping some people on the sidelines. >> we're looking at the trends for women. the hiring throughout this pandemic has been b

we have a news alert steve liesman joining us now federal reserve and some news on the tape what have you got, steve >> brian, thanks fed governor brainard making a speech about the economy and inflation, something high in the mind of the market right now says he sees reasons to expect the inflation increases that are coming will be largely transitory, sticking to the party line on that says it is more difficult to predict the supply side lockdown she is mentioning the colonial lockdown she believe it could be more persistent should it do so, the fed has the tools to address it. she expects the inflation held down over the last years to insert themselves. risks remain as evidenced by the recent jobs report real quick, brian, i want to share with you the high frequency inflation data we follow here. the price at the web scraping data from prices from the web, hitting an all-time high for the series back to 2009. year over year, 3.9%, that's cpi, coming tomorrow maybe some upside risk there. it is something the mavgt is go market is going to have to deal with and digest before the trans

and joining us to discuss the jobs report is steve liesman along with dana peterson and mike, let's start off with you and the markets. nice ending on to the week >> yeah, a jarring number this morning but taking it in stride. it provided a bit of excuse for the growth stock z to bounce a bit and maybe not change the overall story in terms of recovery even if the pace is a little different this is a one year chart, so it will get a little compressed but basically we're sort of threatening to break out of the three week range and once again, you know, we're sort of right back just like that up at the upper end of this path we've been on since october 30th obviously we've had pullbacks along the way. but right now pretty much clinging to that trend line. take a look at one version of the treasury yield curve two years versus 30 year bonds you had yields drop and upon reassessment of the underlying jobs number, longer end maturities actually had the yields bump up so basically the shorter end says that the fed won't do much, but the key is, it sort of kept the shape of the steepening yield c

box" right here on cnbc, i'm andrew ross sor quinn along with becky quick and joe kernen, and steve liesman top of his head he's doing work, hard at work reporting, and looking at those numbers. >> this can't be right yeah. >> meantime, take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour on this monday morning, we're still about 2 1/2 hours before the official hope but the dough looks like it would open about 105 points higher, literally moving as we're speaking t s&p 500 up, the nasdaq lower, 42 points other headlines to tell you about, the cdc saying international travelers coming into the united states will be allowed to use certain self-administered covid tests that will make it easier for passengers to meet u.s. requirements, any test used must be approved by the fda and be supervised remotely by a telehealth service meantime the price of gasoline continuing to rise take a look. the latest survey showing prices up 6%, or 6 cents over the past two weeks to an average of $3.02 per gallon it's an increase of $1.05, though, from a year ago. >>> the price of cryptocurrency, ether exceeding $4,0

steve liesman is here to break it down. steve? >> thanks. the blame for the big jobs miss spread far and wide ranging from high unemployment benefits to health in the workplace concerns and a jobs report that may have missed the mark about the economy. 266,000. up to 6.1. average earnings arestrong labor force participation ticking up to 61.7 janet yellen rejected the idea and said that autos have been hurt by supply shortages. >> starting up an economy again, trying to get it back on track after a pandemic in which there shall a lot of supply bottlenecks is going to be i think a bumpy process but i really don't think the major factor is the extra unemployment. >> supporters of yellen say that it ticked up to nearly three quarters of a million the number of folks back boointo the workfe in the last two months and most economists despite getting it wrong quick to suggest that the big bump they expected in april is coming in may >> sfooef, i have a question for you, if you will >> sure. >> this short fall in labor, the shortage, does that give

. >> all right let's get further row action and news from steve liesman. what do you have an emphasis still on job rec rec recovery as much as anything else >> there's no details to co contradict rick's view no reason at least when they met in april to change the policy whatsoever indicators had strength and the senior sectors most hurt by the pandemic showed improvement but transitory factors expect to maintain the stance until the goals are achieved. the economy was far from the deployment goals and the inflation goals. i have to dig in deeper to see if there's anybody there agitating what bob pisani is agitating for. the people he's talking to an earlier talk of taper but i don't see it that that's full steam ahead. this meeting took place before the employment disappointment and before the much higher inflation numbers did come out and stale in that regard. >> all right dig in more but hang on as we get more reaction to the fed minutes. let's bring in michelle meyer, david katz, also david, you say you think the fed will raise rates sooner than current

our senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us with more on this continuing story steve. >> bigate, david this morning's price index, joining a string of stronger than expected inflation reports, stoking market fears there's another side to the story, that backs up the idea the surge could be temporary overthe next several months. exhibit number one, airline fares. they pushed up substantially, the price index, and today's ppi. while they rose 10% of the cpi, 18% below the level of 2020. hotel prices remain below the february 2020 level while they're rising right now the price increases, they should moderate as supply comes back online in just one example, my colleague, phil lebeau tells me available airline seat miles are 30% below the 2019 levels. when they come back online, that should ease some of the price pressure, and then there's also commodity future prices. a host of commodities, like lumber, are in what's called backward dation. prices fall substantially below where they are right now, a bet on the markets in lower prices base effects are pushing up the year over year

steve liesman explains that. >> reporter: good morning.onishing fact of the pandemic that output from the u.s. economy, it's now topped the level from before the pandemic but it's been done with 8 million fewer workers. it's the result of booming productivity that several economists think will outlast the pandemic and that's good news for workers and corporate profits as well. covid causes to shut down labor intensive businesses which were inherently less productive and it then forced the rapid adoption of technology we had the actually to produce so much more per worker than anyone would have thought possible a year ago. the sources of the productivity include more e-commerce. it's more efficient. more work from home. in some cases for efficient. doing more work with fewer workers and creative destruction that gets rid of some of the unproductive businesses. productivity normally booms after res sessions the least efficient workers are let go often but it comes back down to earth as the economy normalizes. the difference this time is you

steve liesman has a look inside today's fed minutes. mike, let's start with you a crazy day. a couple of significant bounces but softening in the final hour? >> the market has been put through its paces having to ab soared the downside shock in bitcoin, fed minutes, also a retest of last week's lows i think that might be the most relevant thing so far inconclusive but holding above the lows from last week. saw 4060 right after the open this morning bounced, kind of turn around a little bit and had a recovery attempt. we are still talking about this area from the april highs that has not been breached again. sort of flattened out. maybe it is going to look similar to that range-bound period if i guess the bulls are lucky right here the other thing i would point out, we are going back to that june peak, early june of last year that was that interim reopening kind of enthusiasm peak for a little while there we have gone through this before but the story line has changed the nasdaq 100 look at the qqqs, they bounced more they have been laggards. definitely not a leadership group.

month of april, over at cnbc they were so confused by the number that just came in, my colleague, steve liesmanught that can't be right. unemployment rate goes up, not down to 6.1%. coinbase the latest company to haheadquarters at all. people can work from home and office and reception and desk and a water cooler that's no longer needed. the famed auction house sotheby's is trying its hand at nftks, digital works of art, anyone can download them but technically one person owns them through a digital certificate. these will go on auction. the work on the left is called cryptopunk 7523. the piece on the right is quantum. similar works have sold for millions of dollars. sunday morning on "press:here" i'm going to drag an expert onto the show and pretty much demand he explain this strange, new trend to us. it seems to make no sense. people paying millions for something you can copy and have for yourself but we'll try. you can watch "press:here" after "meet the press" this sunday morning at 9:00 on nbc bay area. >>> going viral this morning a zoom meeting where the guy on the right over there may no

hit in this downturn, that means women have been harder hit and have not come back as fast >> steve liesman, thank you. washington correspondent eamon javers now the president is using this jobs report to actually try to sell his spending plan. >> you know, shep, the president is using this weak jobs number to make the argument that congress should double down and push forward with his economic plan >> in the three months since i have been here, the economy has added 500,000 jobs per month this is progress and it's a testament to our new strategy of growing this economy from the bottom up and the middle out and it's a clear testament to why it's so needed >> but republicans are saying just the opposite, that the stimulus plan has pumped so much money into workers' pockets that they can afford to stay on the sidelines of the jobs market rnc chairwoman ronna mcdaniel said biden is squandering the economic recovery and placed the blame right on the president this is the biggest miss on a jobs report in more than two decades. and biden's failed policies are to blame, she said now, the u.s. cham

spooking investors and on the fed easing money policy during the pandemic to talk about this, steve liesmanael bostic president bostic, thank you for joining us this morning. >> good to see you, steve. >> i want to start where andrew tossed with, the issue of inflation. almost all of the metrics that we talked about came in hotter than expected. and especially with the fed, with university of michigan inflation expectations coming in at 4.6% for the next year. does all of this cause you any concern? >> so, let me just say, there are two things to say on this. first, we expected a lot of volatility in the inflation in the next couple of months. we know that last year it was not very strong in terms of inflation. so, as we come out of the pandemic and into a recovery mode, we know that the numbers are just going large that's there we also know with all of the relief money in family's hands we've got pent-up demand putting pressure on prices and upward inflation that is putting prices as we go through the transition what is going to be temporary and transitory effects, and which ones are more

we're pretty high up i don't know you probably have to have a pretty long -- we can get steve liesmand need a big pole and long line. >> i think since grant was president it grew up 11 inches you have a couple hundred years, the water might rise a little. i think you'll be fine i think it will be okay. at least for today's show. they want us to get to the markets. u.s. equity futures at this hour are up and if you look at the weekly chart of what happened, it's like, whew! then back to -- if you weren't away on m-- went away on monday and came back today, it's like nothing happened a lot of it in crypto, too also the nasdaq. the nasdaq sort of made the stand. we did see that ark etf that we watch so closely that made a stand. we'll see next week. going to be the summer doldrums, they will set in eventually. i think some people might this summer maybe relax a little bit more than -- you know, after a 14-month non-relaxing thing that the entire planet's been through. so we'll see maybe we'll still get a lot of trading. money never sleeps, pal. andrew. >> absolutely. and it does feel lik

steve liesman, liesmania fame, joins us and, steve, i saw one most people are at a million plus i saw high? what is the high >> you had -- the highest i've seen is 2.25 but you had annette at that on earlier and that's one of the higher ones in march only a handful of forecasters were on board with the million jobs train adding 916,000 jobs this time the consensus is for a million jobs and the unemployment rate could dip down from 5.8 to 6. vaccinations help americans back to work. some forecasters, as you say, as high as 2 million jobs here are some good signs claims dipping below 500,000 the high frequency data that we track remains strong we've had this surge in job openings that bode well. strong gains forecasts, some of the hardest hit sectors. we'll be looking for jobs in all of those sectors all of that said, even with 1 million jobs the u.s. economy still running -- will still run more than 7 million jobs short of the peak in february 2020 and i'll be watching closely what happens to the labor force. despite the strong march report, look at that, it's flat. remain nearly 4 mil

weekend about whether or not that unemployment supplemental is truly a disincentive to work, and steve liesmanalf our of "squawk box" and talked about other potential reason, child care, better job matching and the idea that one print is not enough to draw conclusions. here is what charles evans said. >> looking for outcomes, when we said that we are continuing to buy assets until we saw substantial further improvement, towards our mandates, and the chair says one employment number is not enough, and then we get a weak number, i think we're going to have to see more strong employment number, and we're going to have to see inflation, and it will be delicate. we'll see transitory inflation that will look like it is above 2% is it going to be relative prices or something more sustainable? i think it's going to take quite some time for us to actually see it in the data assess it. >> we're going to get more numbers this week, jim cpi wednesday. retail sales friday. and a large part of the market is bracing for numbers that will look hot. >> they should the retail sales in particular "mad money," fr

. >> steve liesman, you're right >> why did rates just -- >> i guess to david's question, you know, going into front, jeffries was looking for 2.1 million, i think, and the idea is if the number runs hot, be careful because that does pull forward the taper discussion, but do you think it's possible that even a weak number but with these kinds of wage and labor supply issues, that the taper discussion still gets -- >> it's still on the table you just, this is maybe the employers are waiting, david, until unemployment benefits roll off. but i know the opposite. i just see those help wanted signs. now, look, when ten people see help wanted signs, that's anecdotal, but when everyone sees help wanted signs, is that still anecdotal? >> i don't know. >> it's empirical. >> this was a rhetorical question. >> oh. >> will you play with me here? i'm trying sorry. >> did you see andrew, and becky, and joe, they were playing with each other. with gensler i'm asking for that rapport. >> i think i give you that rapport. i think i give you the best years of my life. >> you have. >> by the way the gensler

still down over 20 % year to date don't miss the ceo, though, of fubo next hour >>> let's get to steve liesmanthe inflation surge accelerating at the fastest pace in a long time >> yeah. david, a much hotter than expected inflation report. shocking markets and even the fed, the fed vice chair saying in an interview he was surprised by the report and that if inflation rises to a level inconsistent with the goals, well, the fed has the tools to bring it down he added he does not have unlimited tolerance for inflation and would be concerned if inflation expectations became unanchored he said he believes the surge is transitory while it could take time to bring supply and demand in balance the headline number of 4.2% compared with 2.6. food and energy, core inflation, it would be double to 3% from 1.6. driving the increase, used cars up 10% that's partially the chip shortage that's reduced car production as well as by the way, your used car is worth more if you drove it less. there you go transportation surge up 2.4 % with a massive increase of 10% for airline ticket prices, natural gas, medical c

. >>> prices are going up for just about everything across a number of sectors steve liesman joins us data head of tomorrow's cpi report. good morning, steve. >> good morning, becky the inflation data followed by cnbc hitting all-time highs. the leading edge of the expected inflation surge with up side risk with the cpi report cnbc partnered to look at inflation data straight from the web from price desk. running at 3.9%. that is the highest since the series began in 2009 there was some moderation in transportation created by rising food prices. you see the cpi closely. tomorrow's consensus of 3.6% looks comparatively low. all of this is before any possible impact for the disruption of the shcolonial pipeline this is one of the series of indications flashing red and we track national federation of independent businesses reporting 36% of small businesses plan to raise prices. the most since april of 1980 yesterday, the fed's consumer expectation report is hitting 3.4% the highest since september of 2013 three-year expectations also rose rise in prices is expected by the fed and most fe

liesman, are you there when you lose steve i think, you know, then we've got problems.t's time don't you? >> joe, i've been saying for a long time what we're doing and i think the reason is twofold. one, they lost their rationale they started off saying they were doing it for market functioning. they made sense. then they kind of pivoted to the economy. and when we do our survey, this is what informs my opinion a lot. something like 68% say the economy doesn't need qe. powell has said just don't worry about it when we don't need this anymore, we'll take it back well, he didn't. i think -- i have -- make a strong argument about the idea of keeping rates low while we put people back to work. the qe seems to be creating a problem that doesn't need to be created. i think they could have eased that off i'll tell you the fed's point of view i understand why they're doing it they like this idea of a qe being a buffer the market saying, you know what, if they start to taper, that means rates are next. he's trying to taper tantrum i don't think there's a good reason to do that a

been on a run especially with lumber and copper and things let's get some instant reaction from steve liesmanporter: this is a huge miss as rick said i want to break it down into single family versus multi-family we have this huge shortage of single family homes. that's where we're seeing the real pain here single family permits down 3.8% month to month single family starts down 13%. a lot of it has to do with these material costs and pressures and supply chain tha've been talking about. the national association of home builders said yesterday that a lot of builders are delaying their starts because of higher prices and because of these issues they also said in a recent survey that 15% of home builders are laying the concrete and then not framing the house. that counts as a start but you don't get a house out of it. so, again, we're seeing those issues with lumber we know that this house that's a renovation stopped construction all together because they can't get the lumber right now we're seeing much higher prices. lumber coming down slightly but still way up compared to a year ago. one note

. >> thank you have a great weekend steve liesman joins us with his take on all of this. steve?e bit motor vehicles and parts up 2.9% electronics and appliance stores up 1.2 health and personal care up positively the negatives,starting with gasoline station sales you know that's not going to be around for long. down 1 clothing accessories down 5.1. not sure why in sporting goods i think the story here is pretty simple we had a huge surge in march those gains didn't continue into april but we didn't have to do much from a gdp standpoint t keep it high because you get up to the level and you want to stay at the level. rick's right, you have a slight decline. that number minus 1.5 which is the control group, that feeds in the gdp. a little bit less. a little bit lower the more important story here, guys, i'm going to talk about this more on monday, is this economy is about to change in a big way. you had almost all of the extra money that's been out there going into the goods sector. it's about to shift into the service sector and only some of that shows up in something like retail

joe, back to you >> all right, rick steve liesman joining us now with more. down the road we could consider considering maybe considering a plan so do we count those, steve, like we used to count those individual words in the fed statements >> you know, joe, i'm thinking about considering possibly answering your question. >> at some point >> at some point i'm going to think about -- no. look, there's a lot of -- there's a lot of talk about what all this means i think people shouldn't get too ahead of themselves. you know, this was inevitable. by the way, it was inevitable in these minutes. why? because, you know, months ts-- a month or more ago i put in charts the fed would begin tapering in the summer guess what, this is the april meeting which is the last meeting before the summer. so the idea that they were thinking about possibly talking about possibly thinking about discussing reducing qe in the summer was spot on it already was in the works. so the trajectory or the schedule, the calendar that people had i don't think has changed very much. i don't know