steve liesman will be with us later this morning with more on the fed minutes. becky, steve has been right and economists have been right we will see what right really is at this point. i think steve has been saying 75 basis points economy is saying 75 the market is saying 50. you tell me. >> the one thing that throws everything into a bit of disarray is what happened with the uk plus 10% inflation rate. coming up with the entire number to pull it out at 10.1%. if what is happening in europe is different from here that energy story is different that has to have the fed looking at things and say what do we do next 50 or 75 we'll see. the bigger question is how long do they keep that up are we talking about months of this or through the end of next year is the market right about the fed having to cut rates by next year those are all big questions. it will take time. the fed is data dependent. every number matters >> i think they will keep their foot on the neck of the economy for a longer time than the market is expecting. that's me. >> we should check out shares o

. >> steve liesman is here with some reaction. nasdaq has been rallying ever since that hike. i don't know if investors feel the same way as daly does. >> there's a bit of a gap between the market expectations and i think the fed rhetoric or the fed guidance what you set is they're starting to price in either a recession and/or fed rate cuts down the road i think what you heard from daly is a part of a process of fed officials trying to lean again that but what he'd like to see is go ahead the range up 3.25, 3.5 range, and maybe stay there no while. what did daly say? she per membersed by the market pricing in -- you can see how the futures is priced. everybody is telling until by january but then you see the market trying to price in the rate cuts next year. both evans and daly are leaning against that pricing right now. >> yeah. she said she doesn't know what data they're looking at, but not only what you would expect, but it will be kind of jerking the economy around in a negative way, hiking, then cutting, then -- you know >> to be fair i asked john williams about this a f

>> it was a big yardage play, i'll say that much i have steve liesman to my right. i'm sure he's going it key off everything i'm saying. i don't want to get too carried away, but this does matter here's why it has been literally a year and a half since you've had a cpi report, frank, come in better than expectations. meaning lower than expectations. think about that a year and a half that you haven't been disappointed in the cpi. that's a breathtakingly long period of time thank joe in my philadelphia office for giving me that data, by the way you don't normally see economists and the analyst community get it that wrong for that long. it's an indication that we're in a brave new world post-pandemic. we see it many ways but one of which is the prediction of inflation has become very hard possibly, we'll see that pendulum sweep to the other direction. joe, this is to your point about sentiment. if you now had next month's cpi, and we've just gotten the first reading for this month, but if you got next month's cpi coming in better than expectations, maybe you can lay a

steve liesman. >> good morning, carl. the new york fed's household debt and credit survey showing that inflation is pushing up household debt this stands to reason, as prices rise, the thing that you want to borrow for, that goes up in price as well. so you have to stretch and increase the size of the debt. household debt rising by $312 billion, to $16.1 trillion the 8% increase is one of the bigger ones we've seen last quarter, was also in the 8% range. the biggest one we've seen since the 2007/2008 crisis driving this debt was credit card debt, increasing by 13% that is the most in 20 years seems like consumers are out there, increasing the balances on their credit cards. probably a bad idea if you want my personal advice they're considering the higher rates they're probably paying. now, delinquencies, this is what's watched to see what is the level of consumer credit stress out there they remain low, but we are seeing an increase in this report for delinquencies at the lowest -- among the lowest

and we'll make sure to pronounce it correctly as we move forward they'll keep raising rates and steve liesman been talking to fed officials and he joins us now. >> hi, steve what are you hearing >> good afternoon. pushing back director against market pricing that sees the fed cutting rates next year. not only did jim bullard think that it's higher than the market priced in, but he said it should be higher for longer. >> i think we'll probably have to be higher for longer in order to get the evidence that we need to see that inflation's actually turning around on all dimensions and in a convincing way coming lower and not just a tick lower here or there. >> san francisco fed president mary daly out saying i don't think we should ratchet up rates really hard and we'll bring them down quickly to lower rates just a few months from now and richmond's thomas barkin saying he's committed to doing what it takes to bring inflation down and he expects better growth in the second half than 2022 and the economy's currently in recession. he and other fed officials insisting it's hard to call a recession r

there could be a shakeout in the industries he details are ahead the july jobs report and steve liesman. steve? >> jon, thanks job growth unexpectedly surging in july. bolster the case at the fed for continued hefty rate hikes jeffries is writing -- forget recession. the market narrative should be shifting to stronger for longer. set to accelerate. this could cause real wages, income spending at gdp to accelerate sharply in the third quarter. the data suggests a bit part of the employment rebound is employers getting back to the level they were at before the pandemic take a look at some of these numbers. here's where the jobs are. it's a bit below where it was in february 2020, but we've had a lot of population growth construction still did well, despite what's happening in the housing and mortgage markets and local education, here are the numbers. i'm not going to real you all the numbers, but they're all well above, 528 jobs looking for 250, and the revisions were in the positive way, up 28,000. that's the important thing hourly average wages up more than expected. so powell has said

. >>> welcome back breaking news out of the fed steve liesman has it steve? >> hey, jon.s the fed president in a meeting with reporters just reiterating her call that she sees rates going up above 4%. that is the fed funds rate something she has said in the june economic projections. it is interesting she holds to it now even though the market has come down. the market has a peak rate, at least the futures market does, of 340 she said a lot of data between now and september when she has to do it again and she'll be looking at that and changing it maybe front loading it more. she went on to say that again, she could alter that rate and the fed could pause in the second half of 2023 after raising rates. she said the u.s. is not in a recession, but the risks are rising back to you. >> you >> steve, this is what the market is doing. the s&p just climbed up a little higher on this is this fighting the fed it looks like fighting the fed >> you know, the market, the equity market has a mind of its own and it is interesting that the bond market heard what fed officials were sayin

we'll bring that you to, as you might expect, live steve liesman, any thoughts going in >> they've done a remarkable job making us feel gloomy, that the people who want to hire shouldn't hire because 2023 will be very bad. it's actually very effective i'm not being facetious. it's a very effective way to talk the economy down and perhaps stop the willy-nilly price increases rather than just say, look, there's going to be a storm coming to you in 2023, so why don't you docaddress it accordingly. a lot of companies are not hiring >> to go back to the storm analogy, which takes me back to jamie dimon, remember that week? >> don't sit, don't stand, all that no he's offering a bottle of 1942 to newman. >> you're going to have to explain all the different references one was to a story about people coming back to the office. the other is working at newman in which he was very involved. >> the reason i say that -- >> say that wwhat i don't know what you just said. >> one day he says everything is great and the next day he says everything is horrible i don't which jamie dimon, i'm taking him off

economic headwinds in the next few months citing the war in ukraine and shoutdowns in asia we have steve liesman. steve, how do we see this? >> the headline and core energy numbers. food and energy were better than pictured they heare still high with the headwinds and tailwinds. gas prices are falling at the pump because oil and gas are down in kmcommodities. that's easy. some consumers have sticker shock with the air fare. fallen for two straight months, but that is after being up 38% year over year some americans could be thinking twice about taking that trip because of the high fares. more sticker shock is affording essentials gas prices are down, but high. medicare is inflating as well as medical care this will take some doing, shep, to get out of it the question remains if it ends up as recession or hard landing. today is a little more hope we squeak out with a soft landing >> steve liesman, thanks f >>> the crash that killed kobe bryant at the center of the lawsuit in los angeles not over what happened this is what l.a. county first responders allegedly did after they arrived on scene. >>>

all three of you, i should say michael darda and steve liesman. rick santelli has the results of the ten-year auction >> it went well. let's go through it. 35 billion ten-year notes, the second leg, three-year notes were yesterday, 2.755 is the auction yield, and it's a big below where the one issue was trading. all the metrics were pretty good b-plus, and i think the most stellar feature of today is the fact there was so much buying coming into this auction is testament that not only the markets, but, of course, who is behind the message of the markets are investors. investors have been more correct in my opinion than many of the analysts and the economists. they gone along with this move and they have gone along with the move with regard to interest rates being well below some of their peak closing yields from the 14th of june kelly, back to you. >> all right a b-plus, 275 on the ten-year. rick, thank you very much. >>> coming up, etfs focus on single stocks splashing into the market one name in particular getting a lot of attention we'll tell y

. >> steve liesman is also here. e, it would seem to me that there would be very little insensitive for a company to cut prices unless there is a fall in demand unless there is a cut in demand, am i right on that >> i don't know if you were opening up the can of words and the concept of sticky prices and economics and this thing has been studied for decades and economists hate this idea because what they want is they want prices to adjust as quickly as the factors affecting prices adjust and they don't and it confounds them, the way that physics is confounded by the inability to put together -- what do you want to call it quantum physics and plutonium physics and there are a bunch of reasons why they don't work. one, the cost of repricing and the restaurants are doing the menus and things concern like market share and also competition. a whole bunch of reasons why, tyler, it -- these prices. they're reluctant to raise them and once they raise them, they're reluctant to bring them down >> bill, is there a distinction t

are the new inflation numbers enough for the fed to pivot away from major rate hikes this year steve liesman with some answers. steve? >> reporter: good afternoon, kelly. we haven't had direct comments from fed folks since the ppi number this morning. officials were not nearly as enthusiastic about that better than expected consumer price report as the markets were yeah, they were seeing the inflation rate declining but didn't suggest it would hold them back from hiking. in fact, quite the opposite. neal kashkari said this doesn't change my rate path at all, up to 4.4% next year. chicago fed president evans was nonplussed he backed a 3.75 to 4% rate and he's one of the defense. both bank presidents leaning against the market pricing for rate cuts next year. they're sort of in line on that peak rate. kashkari said it was more likely to cut and hold. one positivefactor in the ppi report wholesale inflation up the pipeline is falling faster crude or unrefined products were down 3%, goods for final demand closer to the consumer on the pipeline up 0.2% the cpi and ppi could begin the counting for

we have our reporters looking at the economy from all angles to tell us what's really going on steve liesmanlistening to ceos and steve kovac from big tech and bob pisani following the money on wall street steve liesman, we begin with you. >> thanks, tyler the message from the c suite is more mixed and nuanced and somewhat upbeat than the predictions of recession that we're getting while walmart and best buy have offered sobering negative use, there were a host of other ceos we've had on our air who have found the consumer spending just fine >> if you look at the business itself it's smoking and it's doing really well. >> we're seeing good activity across both the consumer and commercial portfolios, and i think that bodes well for the environment we're in right now >> the summer has been a blockbuster. our forward bookings into the fall looked very strong. we see steady recovery in business travel. >> earnings overall up a decent 7.7% compared with a year ago and all s&p industry sectors are beating on revenue and seven of 11 are beating on earnings goldman sachs, writing in the commentary t

you were talking to steve liesman.alked about what you call a dramatic reallocation of capital. i hope i'm quoting you correctly. meaning the job market -- let's be honest. it's screwy. it's weird it's hard to figure out. people vanished from the work force. you can't find enough people here, but 11 million open jobs it's a weird time. >> you have strange conditions prevailing during the pandemic record low mortgage rates. record fast growth in house prices you have the very, very low interest rates that, you know, meant the only place you could get a return is the stock market tech companies were seeing investors throw money at them and relaxed conditions on funding. that has now changed because interest rates are rising. so investors can get a return somewhere else they don't need to accept the huge risk. of course, the housing market has cooled dramatically with the increase in interest rates you are not seeing every american try to refinance their mortgage at once in that report, we saw that the biggest decline in

we're going to check in with steve liesman. he's in jackson hole, talked to bullard a few moments ago. steve? >> reporter: hey, carl, yes. jim bullard striking a pretty hawkish tone saying he thinks inflation could prove to be more consistent and that the fed needs to bring rates up now quickly to combat the current inflation problem that we have >> i like the front loading. i like the idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later we've got kpinflation right now. we've got a strong labor market right now. it seems like the right time to get to the right neighborhood for the funds rate. >> reporter: president patrick harker said he hadn't decided what to do in september, he could go either way, 50, 75 and wouldn't figure out until he sees the inflation data for august but 50 basis points is still a hefty hike >> i want to see the next reading and then decide. >> next inflation reading? >> yeah. that said, i want to put this in a bit of a history cal context since '93 the fed has raised 83 times. 75 of those we

how aggressive the fed should be in fighting inflation and fed president james bullard is with steve liesmanwyoming for a first on cnbc interview. hi, steve. >> hey, tyler, thank you very much our jackson hole coverage continues with st. louis fed president jim bullard. thanks for joining us. >> happy to be here. >> tyler gives you a curtain raise, a man who speaks his mind and not afraid to talk about where things are going what's your take a couple of weeks ago you talked about a 4.4 peak funds rate. are you still in line with that idea >> i think i said 3.75 to 4. >> okay. >> -- is my target for this year, for the end of this year, and i like the front loading i like the idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later we've got inflation right now. we've got a strong labor market right now. it seems like a good time to get to the right neighborhood for the funds rate we had a good debate in the noon hour of the idea of 50 and 75 and how much does it matter? what's the upside of that? i think the front loading idea is that first of all, you show you're serious about infla

hikes and ahead of the minutes, they're lower across the board and 163 points and let's go now to steve liesmanho has those minutes. >> the federal reserve after hiking 75 basis points in the january meeting decided that they anticipate further rate hike ahead they said they needed to move to a restrictive policy and it was required to meet the policy goals of low unemployment and stable inflation the pace was data dependent and it was difficult to get a read from the 50 to 75 and i'll explain why in a second. it was likely to slow the pace of tightening at some point. no indication when that would actually happen, but after the 75 basis point hike the funds rate was seen by several participants in the long-run range of the neutral rate, but some participants thought because inflation remains high it was still below the shorter run meaning the fed had more work to do in that regard. some expected the fed to hike and maintain the level for some time we haven't seen that language before after fed officials did talk about that idea and it was lucky that the fed would reach a certain level and stay

speaking right now and making some strong headlines about the direction of rates let's get to steve liesman president jim bullard saying he is leaning toward a 75-basis point rate hike at the september meeting. this flies in the face of some of the dovish takes that have been out there both on the minutes yesterday and in response to the pivot that was perceived from the chairman at the press conference last week so the issue is this this is not dramatically different from where bullard has been all along he still seems to be -- by the way this is a "wall street journal" interview that was done he still seems to be in line with the idea of 3.75 to 4% by the end of the year. this is close to where the market is. if you look at the fed rate outlook, kelly, the market is at 3.50 bullard is at 3.75 to 4% you still have, what, another 100 or so to go in the next two meetings that could be 250 he's more aggressive than the overall committee but not necessarily more aggressive where the market is. there's been this 50, 75 it's interesting, kelly. i do not see much of a change in the probabilities.

steve liesman has that. >> new york fed out with its consumer expectation survey and finds inflation expectations registered their biggest drop on record this series goes back to 2013 inflation expectations for gasoline, for food and for home prices, here are the numbers down 0.6% on the one-year at 6.2% the one year ahead of inflation expectations, that's still too high but it's come down. three-year, 3.2% down 0.4% and five here year down by 0.5%. the one the fed focuses most on and will be heartened to see it move toward its 2% target and household income expectations up but declined for spending. jon, this is something the market wants to see the fed give a breather and shows how tied these expectations are to gasoline jon. >> for sure. lots of different data to consider to start a new week, steve, thank you let's turn now to chips, nvidia sharply lower this morning as i mentioned after releasing preliminary q2 results posing a big top line miss laying the blame on macro head winds hitting the gaming business. our next guest calls thestock one of his top picks predicting they'll

two is the target. >> steve liesman live lesson jackson hole. let's turn to market correspondent, dominic chu. the s&p is down 4% on the week. do you see the markets retesting lows here? >> that is the key question right now and the reason why a lot of folks out there are trying to figure out whether today's down move is the precursor for something bigger, to retest those lows that we saw earlier this summer. to put all this in context, we are going to put the nasdaq and posit up there. the technology stock trade has been them epicenter of volatility. where we stand right now from the records that highs we saw last fall, we are down roughly about 25% from those record high levels. if you take a look at where we are from the lows here, we are still up about 15%, so this is a territory where we are still in that so-called bear market, but we are not yet testing those lows, so the key will be whether or not some stability can be brought back. one place traders are keeping a close eye on is consumer trade and steve alluded to it in the previous segm

. >> i will show you what the major averages are doing as we head out one hour from now steve liesman with jim bullard one day ahead of the fed chair himself "the exchange" is now. >>> thanks, scott. i'm jon fortt. investors anxiously awaiting fed chair powell's big speech at jackson hole tomorrow. we will look at what a transformation into a dove would look like for powell and what that would mean for your money plus, the peloton ceo compares the company to turning a cargo ship as it tries to evolve it's not the only company hoping to pull off a transformation as demand for its product wanes a post-pandemic reinvention and can they succeed making payments, making a fashion statement and making yourself look good we have the action, story and the trade on affirm, gap and ulta in today's earnings exchange we begin with the markets and bob pisani bob? >> reporter: the market is holding up off of the highs. there daent seem to be too much jitterness the dow, s&p, nasdaq all up. we're up two days in a row off the s&p. we're down for the week but up almost 1% for the month for the s&p. the

nasdaq down 120 points melissa. >>> senior economic reporter steve liesman is here with that fed speech theme. >> melissa, officials don't want investors to think the fed is thinking about cutting rates next year. st. louis and minneapolis and kansas city fed leaders spoke yesterday to strike back against the dovish outlook jim bullard says this is premature and he is leaning to the 75 point hike. mary daly said rates won't go down after they go up. and neel kashkari said the fed may need to do more. he is saying he wants to hike rates. and george says july inflation was encouraging, but not time for a victory map. and looking at fed with the ow average forecast to rise to 3.80 that is a significant difference in the amount or in the direction with the fed hiking and cutting rapidly. fed officials seem intent on the likely outcome for the fed to ho hike and hold. much depends if inflation comes down to convince officials it is lasting and convincing we will have a chance to talk about this stuff next week we'll have several officials on thursday from jackson hole of course, it was made

but what if the fed let the labor market run hot instead steve liesman is here now with more steve? >> yeah, crazy idea here, kelly. the market reaction to the surprise the half million jobs that were created in july swift and negative more jobs meant more fed according to most in the market. probability of 75 basis point hike in september hovering around 70% from 40%. terminal or peak rate surging from 342 above 360 as the market said you know what more job creation means more inflation, which means more rate hikes. but it's a bit of a quandary for the fed. what if more jobs means more supply of goods and services, which are in short supply now, and less inflation then putting workers back to work would be part of the solution, not the problem. take a look here the u.s. economy in july only just recovered the 22 million jobs lost in the pandemic. that's pretty good, sxept for one thing. the economy is now larger or call it $730 billion after you take out inflation that helps explain the tight labor market businesses across the economy scrambling to find workers so because of growth

steve, thank you. >> pleasure. >> steve liesman joe, do markets have it wrong in that case we're completely offsides in the way people are positioned >> if you're buying the market because you expect the federal reserve is going to make some dramatic pivot, that's the wrong reason to do it. maybe the market is signaling that there is credibility in the effort of the federal reserve, that maybe the enemy, which is inflation and the effort to combat it is actually working. now, i understand the price to be paid for that is an economic contraction. that's clear we understand that, and the last area of the economy really that has to come down would be the housing market, and we're beginning to see the signal there as well. but i think we -- the market, if it's going to have a sustained rally, it's got to have that sustained rally because there's an acknowledgment or we're integrating the belief that as you look forward, inflation is going to come down, and it's going to come down by a continued commitment on the part of the federal reserve, as steve said, to take the slack out of the economy by

. >>> welcome back, let's get to steve liesman at jackson hole as chairman powell walks out from his speech, a speech that has enormous implications for the markets. steve, what are you seeing >> right now chair powell is doing kind of traditional walk for the cameras here and for the considerable media presence, and i don't know if we have that shot, but we have fed chair powell taking a walk with -- there he is with his two other vice chairs, that's john williams, the new york fed president, who is the permanent vice chair of the federal market committee and there's brainerd, the recently nominated and approved vice chair of the federal reserve board. she took office in may the idea here is this is classically the trica, the two vice chairs and the chair are see as the inner circle on setting monetary policy. typically, there is not a whole lot of monetary policy space between these three when it comes to the setting of policy they tend to be -- the three of them, pretty much in sync. even if they maybe disagree behind closed doors they don't typically do so publicly and today the s

around in circles and drive yourself crazy >> i mentioned less than two hours away from our own steve liesman with jim bullard liesman joins us now from jackson hole as he prepares for that and he has already done a couple interviews today. steve, i'd like your first reaction to this idea. josh says maybe inconsequential this meeting when we, you know, it's over hyped. i've read that today, too. yesterday tim rose saying it is unlikely the fed chair will lay out this granular path of rate hikes for the next few meetings. it is a bigger picture view. what is your own view? >> if i could just back up a little bit, they think that beta is 50% to 80% of stock changes, right? the stuff that you do in terms of analyzing the earnings socks are going to move with beta. beta is the fed and beta is what is happening with the economy. we'll do a whole bunch of interviews here. some of my competitors will do interviews as well the fed chair will give a big speech there's lots of room for beta here i get what josh is saying. i think he is right that 50, 75 makes less a difference than the overall outlook

let's head out to jackson hole, wyoming once again where steve liesman is joined by yet another fed newsmakerks. pleased to be joined by atlanta fed president raphael bostic, who, it was a tradition, but we broke it with the juniors being off. you are watching the data with interest this is one of the key things you're looking at. the key pc indicator did come down 4.6%. are you ready to stop raising rates? >> that would be a lot for me. this is a sign that the economy's starting to respond. we're trying to get to 2%. we want to make sure our policy moves encl moves closer to the range. >> it's not there now. what is restrictive to you >> for me, it's somewhere in the 3.5 to 3.25 range. and i'm hopeful we can get there by the end of the year i'm hoping we can get to a place where we can get to a redir restrictive posture. and sit there and let the policies work through the economy. >> so you don't seed a need to go further -- explain restrictive. there is a lot of talk about what is the right, you want to get to neutral inflation is 4.6, how can neutral be 2.5%, which is two points lower than

steve liesman is at the fed symposium in jackson hole, wyoming. rick, are you excited? already out there, you're going to have to watch from afar. you guys want to talk at all >> well, i'm excited i think that coming off of basically half century best levels with regard to employment at a time where we're at four decade highs on inflation, presents a very interesting series of events, i think, for them to all deal with, and i'm sure steve is going to try to dig to the bottom. i think my biggest issue continues to be the idea that the fed cannot possibly ease up on the rhetoric despite what they may believe behind closed doors. i'm not saying the fed has to pivot in 2023, as a matter of fact, the recent steepening of the yield curve is what i would talk most about if i was steve to the fed officials because maybe, and i'm not saying it does yet, it could be reversing flattening, but maybe it means that we're starting to price in better growth versus recession, with long end rates what do you think, steve >> i think you got that right, rick and i think it's also important

back to you. >> want to send it to steve liesman who joins us what do you think?at the uk is pointing to the future of the u.s. sure, it's possible. it's worrisome, worth paying attention to but i think they have a lot of th things going on over there they're a lot closer to ukraine and what's going on. we reasonably self-sufficient when it comes to energy. we're probably going to get a hit to natural gas prices depending on what happens in europe but our policy is appreciating we have a central bank that's been a lot more aggressive than the uk has been. i think rick is right to worry about it, but i don't think it's definitely going to happen >> rick, you want to reply to that >> no, i've pretty much had my say. that is our future in europe the inflation reduction act has a couple decent pieces in it, but it certainly in my opinion doesn't hammer home the notion that we're continuing, we're continuing to think that the handoff to electric and some of the issues regarding curtailing fossil files is on some type of path that's sustainable. i don't think it is. so

done to is hosting with steve liesman. a major selloff today after terrell powell's remarks.s on tap for tonight? it has to be a big show. >> is going to be huge. the reason why is on that cnb special, as referred, the fed factor, we are going to break down the nine minute speech that sent the dow lower by 1000 points. fed chair powell packing quite a punch in those nine minutes, telling the markets that fighting inflation is the number one priority even if, and this is a key part, even if it hurts the economy. we are looking at every angle we possibly can with the limited amount of time that we have. banks, technology, the consumer asking the question that you want the answer to is their opportunity amid this selloff and is the bottom near or has it already been behind us? that is all coming up at the top of the hour. of course, we will do that show. i am sure the news and shepard smith is going to tackle it as well. we have a lot planned for the next couple of hours. >> thank you so much. we will be sure to be tuned in. and now a check on how stocks ended the day. the three

. >> a bit more on that as well from our steve liesman as well, who joins us now steve? this just right, the key to the growth, the lower number than expected that is has the market believing less inflation, less fed, and maybe a better chance of a soft landing on the headline verse the estimate of 0.2, year on year 0.2 better, core cpi, and then the year over year core cpi, unchanged for a change whee it has been a while since there's been a positive in the data, and it was priced to be disappointed again, but looking at the details, sara is right on this again a more mixed intoing on the inflation picture. airline fares falling sharply, maybe more to come, but then medical services, up 0.4, housing up 0.6, so still some pressure from those elements, at least. but markets seizing on the headline and saw let fed tightening equities rally, the dollar weaken, and of course the immediate future, so did the chance of a 75 basis point hike in the september and you can see the chance of a 57 basically the mirror image, flipping from 68 to 37% as the market prices in less fed.

investors are waiting for the big number of the week and the cpi report and what it says about it steve liesmanoins me now with more everybody's watching, steve. >> yeah, it's a big number the headline inflation outlook expected to improve for a the first time in a year it's forecast to keep rising and that's the measure that matters most to the federal reserve. here are the numbers we're looking for. just 0.2 on the cpi. one of lowest we've had in a year it had been up that should decline the year-over-year rate. look at the core rate continuin at a robust gain you have 6.1% from 5.9%. economists at citigroup writing, we would not expect the fed to be particularly comforted that inflationary measures are flowing. service sector and housing inflation, they're driving the core, and factors inside of both suggest they're not ready to plateau. housing costs, that's a third of the index. you can see on this chart, they didn't start to rise is that the skpt on the second line that's the cpi there housing costs did not start to rise until several months after inflation had already taken off. still be

the one and only senior economics reporter, steve liesman is here to talk about what he thinks is goingnd why it matters for the market steve? >> hey, good morning, andrew few issues are more important for the outlook in equities than who has this right right here on "squawk box," st. louis fed president jim bullard was telling us yesterday he expects the fed to be higher for longer presidents' daily from san francisco and from minneapolis >> some are expecting us to cut interest rates next year i don't want to say it's impossible, but the more likely scenario is that we would continue raising >> okay. so here's conflict in numbers. both markets and fed projections are in line for this year with the fund rates seen rising to end the year at 340. but next year markets have cut priced in. the gap, 80 basis points 380 for the fed, 303 for the market obviously the economy and inflation are going to determine who's got this right a full-blown recession that brings inflation down sharply could bring about those cuts since the fed began publish being its rate outlook in 2015 it overestimated r

i'm rebecca quick along with mike santoli and steve liesman let's say somebody wasn't paying attention the last couple weeks. what happened with the markets i want you to explain the markets and economy and where things stand first up, u.s. equities at it this hour. looking lower. largely because news from china and concerning news with the economy and rate cut we'll talk about that in a moment the dow futures down 143 points. the nasdaq down by 59 points the s&p down 20. this is a big deal these red arrows are not indicative of where we have been the last few months. >> higher four weeks in a row. s&p up 16% off the bottom. you know, last week, s&p up 3% in the hypothetical if you were not passiying attention >> asking for a friend >> the way i boil it down, we got into a stagflation panic worried about inflation persistent and high and growth falling short and getting into recession. the last two weeks, you got new information that made you slightly less worried about the stag and flation the strong numbers and other economic numbers consumption here it is not off the table. recessio

. >> let's bring in steve liesman. steve, can you bring order to this thank you so much for joining us >> if scott is the judge, that makes you law and order, i think that you are the constable, frank. >> i'm trying to be a bailiff at best right now so let's get back to the topic >> i don't agree that it was a nothing burger in those minutes. i think that you need to step back and say the market was pretty much braced for a hawkish redress by the fed the idea that the market had taken off from powell's press conference with the idea that there was a pivot, a lot of analysts, i think the market was positioned for the idea that the fed would come back and say wait a second, there has been no pivot. but there wasn't as much of a hawkish redirect as was expected in fact there were dovish elements that were introduced. and steve weiss i think is right, and i don't want to get in the smackdown there, but he is right about this idea that the market financial conditions have eased while the fed is trying to keep them tight. and

hikes and ahead of the minutes, they're lower across the board and 163 points and let's go now to steve liesmanes. >> the federal reserve after hiking 75 basis points in the january meeting decided that they anticipate further rate hike ahead they said they needed to move to a restrictive policy and it was required to meet the policy goals of low unemployment and stable inflation the pace was data dependent and it was difficult to get a read from the 50 to

steve liesman will be there.the fed shift if it is going to come, it could come in the vistas of jackson hole eric, thank you. >>> i appreciate you tuning in to "worldwide exchange." if you watch us live now or you are watching us lar.te see you tomorrow "squawk box" is next take care. it's time for the biggest sale of the year, on the sleep number 360 smart bed. it's temperature balancing, so you both say cool. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. all smart beds are on sale. save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. only for a limited time. in order for small businesses to thrive, they need to be smart. efficient. agile. and that's never been more important than it is right now. so for a limited time, comcast business is introducing small business savings. call now to get powerful internet for just 39 dollars a month. with no contract. and a money back guarantee. all on the largest, fastest reliable network. from the company that powers more businesses than anyone els

. >> steve liesman has more right now breaking, steve. >> thanks very much, scott charlie evans saying that a 50 basis point hike in september is, quote, reasonable. 75 could be, quote, okay but he goes on to say that he doesn't think more than 75 is needed policy can change if the economy is in recession, but overall the fed is working at a neutral rate and he says it has to go to a restrictive rate over time so this idea out there, a little pushback to this general idea that the fed is done and going to cut deeply next year. mary told jon fortt that the fed is nowhere near almost done. she said she has been portrayed in the bond market and we expected this and talked about this last week this idea that the fed the pivoted, there is now a pushback by the fed or some fed officials that some kind of imminent or early 2023 rate cut is in the works here. >> although 50 in september being reasonable, you know, he could have said, well, 75 seems more reasonable. he did not he used the word "reasonable" around 50. does that jive with where evans has generally stood? are you surprised at all

let's bring in senior economics reporter steve liesman for his take steve, we have to ask you, what doou see coming up with the feds minutes i know you are in d.c. waiting for them now >> yes, there's a lot of talk about there being hawkish risk around the minutes, and it is probably worth it to go back and review the bidding chair powell, the fed had a statement in the end of july and powell had his press conference, and a lot of people too away the idea there's some sort of pivot out there and a lot of fed observers, myself included, didn't precisely hear that pivot. markets, of course, rallied about 8% since that meeting. having heard that pivot. the trouble right now is that since that meeting a lot of fed officials have come out and said, you know what, we didn't pivot. this idea of a rate cut being built in for next year, they've really leaned against that, frank. i'm just wondering if these minutes serve as -- i don't know if you want to call it a redirect in a courtroom, in a court hearing or a court trial where the fed comes forward and says, you know, this is what we said, it

steve liesman, as we go to break, take a look at the road map for the rest hour.s best month since late last year how to trade it. some of the new names investors are betting on can take on bitcoin. >> moving in the other direction, chinese tech names. they are among the biggest lag yards on the s&p in july is there more to come? >> and investors eyeing higher taxes ahead for corporations across the board who could get hit and how it could play out this hour. >>> a big show ahead as the dow 35n s&p move into the greeup 41 don't go away. only at vanguard, you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your goals are ours too. and vanguard retirement tools and advice can help you get there. that's the value of ownership. >>> boeing is headed higher after the long-awaited faa for the 787 dreamliner one of many positive this morning as the manufacturer also narrowly avoids a strike at three of its plants. our phil lebeau has a wrap-up. hey, phil. >> reporter: hey, carl the strike news is important but i think the reason the stock is moving higher i

steve liesman is in jackson hole for more on the fed chair's stance today steve?hanks very much, and i am joined by a special guest g gita who we have known as the chief economist for the imf and that's a move up or sideways either way, you were in the room today when chair powell was speaking did you hear such a hawkish tone from him >> chair powell appropriately came across as being firm and resolute about bringing inflation down and making sure that inflation expectations don't anchor and that was an important point and he said it would take time and that he sees the rates staying at close to 4% for most of 2023 so i don't need people to jump the gun about rate cuts and so on at this point >> gita you've been around quite a bit, and i don't remember a fed chair or central banker talking about pain on the way. what did it signal to you? >> what it signaled is recognizing that there are tradeoffs in recognizing and bringing inflation down. >> there will be short term pain and if you don't bring inflation down durably then there will be much more longer term pain

you will see steve liesman and elk -- there are elk there, seema, as well >> the mecca it is not just u.s. markets that will be watching jackson hole closely any potential pivot from the fed share could have an impact on emerging markets let's bring in the chairman of rockefeller international and founder of breakout capital. you say what fed officials say over the next 48 hours could be critical to emerging markets specifically china tell us what you're seeing. >> hi, seema i think if you look at emerging markets there are 150 developing countries out there. so i think the fed's decision has a different impact on different markets and clearly the most vulnerable to me is china. we've spoken so much about inflation and how inflation is rising everywhere, but one country that is still suffering from possible deflation is china. that china's property market is forced to roll out massive amounts of stimulus. not as much as they used to do, but still considerable amount of stimulus and they're cutting rates, but the ability to stimulate and cut interest rates is going to be constrained by

our economic correspondent, steve liesman. is the hiring boom enough to shield the recovery from recession and it certainly would indicate that the economy is not in one. >> it is really hard to call this recession as the job growth is strong. if it was a typical recession that the economy would have shed hundreds of thousands of jobs and we would be well into the process of rising unemployment. instead we added 3.2 million jobs so if it is a recession it is one of the weirder ones. it may be that the job cuts are coming as the effect of high inflation as the rate hikes start to bite into the economy. but working against that is the idea that we have only just now recovered the 22 million jobs we lost in the pandemic and the economy has grown over two years and some industries remain well below the pre- pandemic employment level so we can still have healthy job growth. >> what about wage growth? it was a little higher but still not keeping up with inflation. >> exactly. it did not surprise me all that much. it is a tight labor

report, and you can bet the data will be a big debate about when wether we're recession or not steve liesman between job gains and economic losses. m nice to see you, mr. liesman >> expectations are calling for continued job growth in july that continues this ongoing anomaly we have between negative gdp growth on one hand it stepped down from the 372 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6 and sort of moderate job growth, 0.3% growth for the month on month changes cnbc research going back to 1947 showing that when gdp has been neg diff negative for six months, pay rolls fall we've gained about 3 million the dallas fed out with a similar conclusion it shows job growth during these past six months is far stronger than the average recession we should be negative right now. and that's true, by the way for virtually every other metric that they looked at, except of course gdp to be sure, it's been really hard to forecast job growth and even count job growth during the pandemic economists are turning to high-frequency data. the hr software company counts what's going through their software you can see

. >> steve liesman live for us in jackson hole. steve, thanks. >>> let's turn to senior markets correspondent, dominic chu. nasdaq worst since june. do you see the markets retesting lows here? >> shep. that's a key question here now. and it's the reason a lot of folks are trying to figure out whether today's down move is the precursor for something bigger, to retest those lows that we saw earlier this summer to put this in contact. it will be at the nasdaq center, the center of market volatility trade. record highs last fall. we are now down roughly 25% from those record high levels that we've seen. now, if you take a look at where we are from the lows here. we're still up about 15%. so this is a territory now, where we're still in that so called bear market. but we are not yet testing those lows. the key will be whether or not stability can come back. one place that traders are keeping a close eye on. ask that consumer trade. and steve alluded to it in the consumer segment. right now, everyone is watching inflation and watching whe

with your money. 6:00 eastern a cnbc special report: "the fed factor" hosted by dominic chu and steve liesman. we're back in two. [ "back to life" by soul ii soul ] what if you could change your surroundings with the touch of a finger? now you can. biometric id... inside the innovative, new c-class. finding the perfect project manager isn't easy. but, at upwork, we found him. he's in adelaide between his daily lunch delivery and an 8:15 call with san francisco. and you can find him, and millions of other talented pros, right now on upwork.com this is xfinity rewards. talented pros, right now our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. >>> we're back we are at we'll call it session lows, almost a 2% decline for the dow, better than that for the s&p 500, and the nasdaq is approaching a 3% decline, it's down 358, almost 59, 12,280 on the back of that very hawkish speech from fed chair jay powell we bring in

economics reporter steve liesman is there in wyoming. with us ron insana, senior analyst and commentator and adviser to schroeder and a. help us make ceps to the new numbers first. what does it say about where we stand in tackling inflation? >> the inflation data contained within the gdp report was still a little bit on the stiff side relative to what fed wants. the core rate of inflation they look at within this report was still about, i think it was over 4.5%, and the fed wants to bring that down rather substantially. having said that, the argument for a recession is also been kind of poo-pooed and steve can speak to them, analysts that do not believe we are in recession despite two quarters of back-to-back contractions. the economy is too strong for that to be the case and it's putting, given the low unemployment rate, additional pressure on the fed to keep raising rates. >> steve to you and what you're hearing on the ground there? >> well, you know, recession question is a big one here, and most fed officials that we have spoken to d